Posts Tagged ‘AAP’

Just a little bit funny, this Saturday morning …

June 13, 2015
  1. A white woman, Rachel Dolezal, believed all the claptrap about how race was just a social construct and decided to identify herself as an African-American. She has altered her appearance and hair style to convince her surroundings and has leveraged the duplicity to get a full scholarship at a black University and then to become President of the local chapter of the NAACP in Spokane, Washington. She has managed to keep this up for some 7 or 8 years. But she didn’t manage to change her ancestry and her genetics and was eventually betrayed by her (white) parents.
  2. King Felipe VI of Spain has removed the title “Duchess of Palma” from his sister, Princess Cristina, who is to go on trial charged with tax evasion. She was granted the title in 1997 when she married Inaki Urdangarin, a former Olympic handball player who is also accused of tax evasion. Presumably she remains a Princess of the Ignoble kind.
  3. Barack Obama demonstrated again that he is a leader incapable of even carrying his own supporters with him. A leader who follows. He is trying to negotiate a trade agreement among 12 countries around the Pacific. He asked Congress to give him “fast track” powers to negotiate the deal. The Senate agreed but his own Democrats killed the enabling bill in the House of Representatives. But Obama will try again.
  4. The AAP (Arvind’s Agitation Populace) are now the ruling party in the Delhi government. True to their ineptitude they appointed a Law Minister, Jitender Singh Tomar, who turned out to have faked all his degrees.
  5. Moldova’s Prime Minister, Chiril Gaburici, also resigned because he was found to have faked his school diploma.
  6. Prince Carl-Philip was the Crown Prince of Sweden when he was born in 1979.  But a year later he had to give up that position to his elder sister Victoria when legislation removed the hereditary preference for male progeny. (This was actually a compromise since legislation to abolish the monarchy failed to pass). Today, he marries a commoner, Sofia Hellqvist, 30, who will become Princess Sofia of Sweden. Hellqvist was something of a hell-raiser when she was younger and more foolish, with a period as a topless model and beauty queen and even as a reality TV participant hobnobbing with porn stars. Just a touch of ignobility here.
  7. In Japan a Supreme court ruling in 1979 established that in a case of a husband or wife cheating with a 3rd party (where the 3rd party was not a prostitute paid for his or her services) the cheated spouse could sue the 3rd party for compensation for disturbing the tranquility of the marriage. But this week a Japanese judge ruled that a Ginza bar hostess who had sex with her business-men clients, not for money but for their continued patronage, could not be sued by an “injured” wife. He argued that this “business adultery” was routine and did not disturb the tranquility of the marriage.
  8. Tony Blair is.

Indian business hoping for/predicting a Modi/BJP landslide

May 10, 2014

The Great Indian Election Tamasha comes to an end on Monday and the results will be announced by the Election Commission on Friday, May 16th.

The Indian Stock Exchange (BSE Sensex) is riding very high. On Friday the index reached record levels and rose almost 3%. Business is looking for a stable and effective government. The last term of the Congress led government was one of the most ineffective terms of any government. Not least due to the coalition government which was virtually paralysed in the arms of its many and varied partners. Each of the regional coalition partners were more interested in cashing-in (politically and economically) than in governing or governance. The BJP in opposition was a party of disruption and their objective was to ensure and show that the government was ineffective. Parliament was more often disrupted than in session.

Insofar as the Stock Exchange reflects the hopes and predictions of the business community, a Narendra Modi / BJP government is certain. Two years ago I would have thought this was not possible but by December 2012, I became convinced that Narendra Modi would be the next Prime Minister.  As the election has progressed and the Modi wave has been sustained, the stock exchange has moved inexorably upwards. The new kids on the block – the Aam Admi Party – had threatened to be a spoiler for Modi (and it could still happen) but they are increasingly looking lost. Their leader’s resignation as Chief Minister of Delhi has only strengthened the view that the party lacks substance. They can make a noise and oppose anybody and anything, but they are scared of – and incapable of – governing.

Back in February this year it became clear that the election would be held at the end of the government’s mandate in April. The actual dates were announced by the Election Commission on March 7th. The optimism in the markets has grown steadily.

Sensex after election announcement 2014 (chart from Bloomberg)

Sensex after election announcement 2014 (chart from Bloomberg)

Indian business, in my experience, is more concerned about the stability and rationality and continuity of government rather than the manifestos of the various parties. They dislike subsidy policies introduced just to woo voters – but are expert at milking subsidies when available. They prefer the slightly more free-market approach of the BJP and are suspicious of ideological socialism and protectionism. But they have had no difficulty with working with Congress led governments as well. What they just don’t want is another government which cannot overcome the internal strains of a coalition and cannot govern. Uncertainty is the prime enemy.

So if the stock exchange is a predictor of the election result then we can expect that Narendra Modi and his BJP will not only win but may even come close to an outright majority. If that happens we can expect a sharp index spike on Monday 19th May – perhaps +4-5%. But if there is no overall majority for Narendra Modi, then we could see the markets fall also very sharply. The Sensex reached 23,000 last Friday. By next Friday it could have crept upto about 24,000. Then depending upon Modi’s majority it could spike to over 25,000. But if Modi has no clear majority and another wishy-washy government is in prospect, it could drop to around 22,000 (-10%).

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