Posts Tagged ‘European Central Bank’

“Only way out of the Eurocrisis is for Greece to leave the Euro”

June 16, 2011

Dagens Industri’s panel of finance and economy experts have a bleak view of Greece remaining within the Euro. Emergency loans will be necessary anyway but in the long term, they feel, Greece has to leave the Euro not only for their own sake but also for preventing a collapse of the EMU.

The only way out of the euro crisis is with Greece’s exit from EMU, says Dagen Industi’s expert panel. But only after a lengthy process with more emergency loans to avoid the risk of a new financial meltdown a la Lehman Brothers in 2008.

“Greece is actually already bankrupt. Market prices speak for themselves. The country would not survive a day without an emergency loan from the European Union and IMF” said Marie Giertz, chief economist at Länsförsäkringar.

A new global financial crisis threatens if Greece does not get emergency loans and are forced to suspend payments to private lenders, including German and French banks, warns the European Central Bank ECB and the large rating agencies. Germany and others complain that European taxpayers cannot just continue to sponsor Greece’s debt tangle with never-ending emergency loans.

Cecilia Skingsley, chief analyst of Swedbank’s foreign exchange and fixed income trading, believes that the new emergency loan is the solution only for the short term. But that Greece must eventually leave the EMU. “With a further loan program maybe the market calms for a while. Then in a few years we realize again that this is not sustainable. Therefore I think that Greece must leave the monetary union. In return, they may get a little waiver of some of the emergency loans from the EMU ” said Cecilia Skingsley.

Jan Häggström, chief economist at Handelsbanken, points out that the euro country taxpayers have to bear the Hellenic liabilities no matter how it goes. The alternative to providing further emergency loans is credit losses in the European banking system, which in turn would require government bailouts. “In the end somebody has to write this down and it is not unlikely that Greece will have to leave the euro, but that is further ahead in time” says Jan Häggström.

Greece, in principle, needs to step out of the EMU in order not to drag down other crisis countries into a major depletion of their treasuries, reasons Tomas Pousette, chief economist at SBAB. “Otherwise it is difficult to see why, for example, Portugal should endure ten years of very tough fiscal policy while Greece simply chops off their debt. For a Greece outside the EMU, debt would be burdened by high interest rates and bankruptcies would threaten the country’s banking sector. But the country would also get a chance to revive its tourist industry with its own, lower, exchange rate “, says Tomas Pousette.

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