Archive for September, 2015

« Older Entries
Newer Entries »

Magic is to physics as Heineken is to the human body

September 10, 2015

Magic already fills all the spaces that physics cannot reach.

Take spacetime (you can just as well call it the mellifluous aether which carries gravitational waves from the sun to the distant reaches of the solar system where other beers cannot reach).

The stretched rubber-sheet analogy to explain spacetime and gravity is just that – an analogy. And not a very good one as xkcd has so well illustrated.

spacetime magic — by xkcd

“Spacetime” is a label for any mathematical model which combines space and time into a continuum. It is just a model. But why that model should apply is magic.

Spacetime is just an imagined structure of the universe and is imbued with mathematically-defined properties such that “spacetime is distorted by the mass of bodies which exist within it and these distortions, in turn, affect the motion of those masses”. A somewhat circular argument which does not explain the “why” or the “how” beyond “it must be so, because it is so”.

Spacetime does not explain the existence of gravity. It merely shifts the need for magic to explain magical attraction (labelled gravity) to another place where physics cannot reach. In a universe where motion is not independent of time, and where the very duration of time can vary as a consequence of motion, even the magnitude of the 3 physical dimensions become variables subject to the observer and his motion. Not to mention that mass can be energy and some of both can be dark. Neither mass nor energy nor momentum can any longer be conserved, because phantom dark energy can be called upon and injected into the equations whenever it is needed to explain the unexplainable. And to have a “phantom” class of undetectable, unobservable dark energy which is doubly undetectable, does seem to go over the top. Rather than just put dark energy and dark matter, and even phantom dark energy into the category of magic, intrepid physicists have invented new classes of  unknown, unobservable, undetectable, sub-atomic particles. Some have charm and some have spin. Some have properties which are as yet undefined but will be sufficient to the explanation required to be constructed. Why not just call them “magic particles”?

Physics no longer goes for the parsimonious explanation. Big Physics seems nowadays to be based on introducing complexities wherever possible rather than looking for the least complicated explanation which is sufficient to the explanation. For every ultimate, fundamental particle that is “found”, but found wanting, two further magic particles have to be invoked.

Of course, there is a Grand Unified Theory which explains electromagnetic, weak, and strong interactions and naturally there is a Theory of Everything which even explains gravity. It is quite simple and sufficient to the purpose. It is called Magic and it occupies all the spaces that Physics cannot reach.

It is time for a Heineken. Now if I could only remember the right spell and the right incantation to go with it, ………

 

Tags:,
Posted in Physics, Trivia | 2 Comments »

Kick them, trip them, film them

September 9, 2015
After Petra Laszlo (original photo Reuters)

After Petra Laszlo (original photo Reuters)

The behaviour of Petra Laszlo, a camerawoman working for a station which is affiliated with Jobbik, Hungary’s far right party, has caught the headlines in all the media including in the New York Times.

It is not very pretty.

Is it just her values on display or were they “Jobbik’s values” or “Hungarian values” or “European values”? Or were they the “Christian values” of the Hungarian PM which were being defended? Or “Aryan values”?

NYT:

After more images appeared online showing Ms. Laszlo kicking migrants, including a child, her employer, N1TV, which works to popularize the virulently anti-immigrant Jobbik party, said in a brief statement that she had “behaved in an unacceptable manner,” and had been fired.

Video recorded by Ms. Laszlo for the broadcaster’s YouTube channel showed the man she tripped carrying a child in his arms as he ran from a police officer. The footage was edited to conceal the fact that Ms. Laszlo, wearing a surgical mask, had stuck out a leg to send the man sprawling.

This report is from Quartz:

After a Hungarian camerawoman was caught on film tripping a refugee carrying her child who was running away from Hungarian police, the camerawoman’s employer, N1TV, decided to terminate her contract.

The same camerawoman can also be seen kicking other refugees, including a young girl.

The incident happened in the town of Roszke in southern Hungary, close to the Serbian border, as refugees broke through a police line at a collection point. The woman has been identified as Petra Laszlo. The station she was on assignment for is affiliated with Jobbik, Hungary’s far right party.

 “An N1TV colleague today behaved in an unacceptable way at the Roszke collection point,” the TV station’s editor-in-chief said in a statement on Facebook, in which he also announced contract was terminated on the same day.

The video went viral, sparking outrage in Hungary and elsewhere. Opposition parties spoke of launching charges against Laszlo for “violence against a member of the community.”

Camerawoman for N1TV trips a carrying a small child as he runs from police

Embedded image permalink

Same N1TV camerawoman also caught tripping a young girl –

Embedded image permalink

How many more refugees did she kick that day? Perhaps she kept score.

Reuters has the picture of the man and his terrified son in all their misery after they were tripped by Petra Laszlo.

Photographer Marko Djurica, Reuters / Tuesday, September 08, 2015

Related:

Religions have no values – people do

Tags:, ,
Posted in Behaviour, Ethics, Europe | Comments Off on Kick them, trip them, film them

GE gets approval from the EC and Ansaldo gets Alstom GT technology

September 8, 2015

UPDATE:

More details are now emerging of what exactly will go to Ansaldo. It seems that Ansaldo will get PSM, technology for the GT26 and the GT36 (which does not exist yet) including the test facilities at Birr and the LTSA’s for 34 GT26s sold by Alstom. It is good that it is settled but the European Commission has not – in my opinion – got it quite right.

  1. The technology seems to be restricted to 50Hz technology (after all, all of Europe is 50Hz). So a current GT26 and its potential upgrades should – theoretically – be available from Ansaldo but not the GT24 (60 Hz). It is the US market (60 Hz) which has access to cheap gas and the 50Hz market will take a while and will be dependant on fracking taking off in Europe. Ansaldo will probably need to take all liabilities to get their first 2 or 3 GT26 engines placed. And even then finding a suitable utility customer to host the machines will pose a challenge.
  2. GE will face no competition in the US from an Ansaldo GT24 and probably Ansaldo is not permitted to enter 60 Hz markets except with engines they develop themselves.
  3. The development of the GT36 is a long way from being commercialised and the assumption by the EC that this development will be completed by Ansaldo is almost “pie in the sky”. Of course it is theoretically possible! A 60Hz GT34 is even less likely.
  4. The EC’s assumption that PSM will be able to service engines like the GE 9FA under Ansaldo ownership is flawed. It is one thing to have an Alstom owned PSM servicing such engines considering that Alstom was the main source of GE 9FA until 2000 (when they acquired the ABB gas turbine business), and quite another to have an Ansaldo owned PSM doing such service.

I suspect that GE and Alstom have talked down the difficulties that Ansaldo will face and the EC have bought the sales pitch. Or it could be that the EC does know that this commercialisation of the GT36 (and maybe even the production of the GT26) by Ansaldo will likely not happen, but it gives them a face saving way of approving the GE bid.

Money talks. And we need to bear in mind that GE pays only €300 million less which must now presumably come to Alstom from Ansaldo. Just €300 million as the price for the ongoing service business and the assets at the R &D facilities at Birr does not leave much over actually for the technology that has been purchased.

But

  1. does Ansaldo have the additional €500+ million that they will need to get a GT26 into production?
  2. And do they have another €2 billion (at least), along with the will and the capability, to bring a commercial GT36 into being??

PowerMag:

The commission’s in-depth review, which focused on markets for the sale and servicing of heavy-duty gas turbines operating at 50 Hz, revealed that a GE-Alstom merged entity would have accounted for more than 50% of the European Economic Area market.

It was also specifically concerned that the merger would have risked eliminating an important innovator. “The transaction as notified would have reduced customer choice, R&D [research and development] and innovation, with serious risks that certain Alstom heavy duty gas turbine models would be discontinued and that the newly developed and most advanced model (GT 36) would not be commercialised. This was of concern for many market participants, including major European power utilities,” the commission said.

The merger was approved on the condition that the parties offered to divest Alstom’s GT 26 and GT 36 turbine technology, existing upgrades and pipeline technology for future upgrades, a large number of Alstom R&D engineers, and two test facilities for the GT 26 and GT 36 turbine models in Birr, Switzerland.

The parties will also need to divest long-term servicing agreements for 34 GT 26 turbines recently sold by Alstom, and Alstom’s Power System Manufacturing (PSM) subsidiary. The commission was concerned that if GE absorbed PSM, it would have eliminated competition for the servicing of GE’s mature heavy-duty gas turbines (like its 9FA model) that are installed in existing plants. “As GE is the dominant player in this market and PSM its most significant potential competitor, this would have created a risk of higher prices and less innovation,” it said.

34 gas turbines is a small part of Alstom’s fleet but it may be enough to give Ansaldo a fighting chance of building up experience over – say – 5 years or so.

I remain of the opinion that this is a good deal for Alstom and GE. However, I also remain of the opinion that some 8,000 jobs of those being transferred from Alstom to GE or to Ansaldo will be at risk. Ansaldo surely has a chance for becoming one of the “big 4”. But they may have difficulty chewing or swallowing what they have just bitten off.

Another thought that occurs to me is that the EC process is itself flawed. The solution (divestment to Ansaldo), which has delayed the deal by a year, smacks more of ego and politics rather than protection of competition. The actual protection of competition achieved is minimal.

WSJ: ……. GE already manufactures gas turbines of corresponding size to the two Alstom models, and the company says it will retain licenses that will enable it to compete for business servicing turbines made by other manufacturers—an opportunity for future earnings growth.

The U.S. company will also divest the long-term servicing contracts for 34 turbines that have already been installed by Alstom. GE has said that Alstom’s servicing contracts were a key attraction of the deal, but a person close to the deal said the divested contracts amounted to only 4% of Alstom’s total installed base.

“I am glad that we can approve this transaction, which shows that Europe is open for business and that Europe-based technology can thrive and attract foreign investment,” Ms. Vestager said.

 

Well, the European Commission has given GE approval for the acquisition of Alstom’s power and grid businesses. But Ansaldo will now get Alstom’s large GT technology (it’s not clear to what extent), the testing facilities in Birr and some substantial service business. Whether Ansaldo actually gets the GT24 and GT 26 engines or just technology is not clear yet.

Previous posts: https://ktwop.com/tag/alstom/

Bloomberg:

As part of GE’s offer, Ansaldo will acquire Alstom’s technology for large and very large gas turbines. Alstom will also cede two test facilities for these turbine models in Birr, Switzerland, the EU said.

“Ansaldo will have a true fighting chance” of competing in the European market, Margrethe Vestager, the EU’s competition commissioner, told reporters in Strasbourg, France.

The Italian firm should gain a foothold in the maintenance business by taking over long-term contracts Alstom holds to service 34 previously-sold gas turbines, the commission said. Ansaldo will also acquire Alstom’s Power Systems Manufacturing unit which can service gas turbines of different makes, the regulator said.

With PSM going to Ansaldo, Shanghai (via PSM) gets a foothold in the US for 3rd party engine service – for whatever that may be worth. But I am not very hopeful. As an owner, I would not be very keen on asking an Ansaldo owned PSM to service a Siemens or a GE engine or even an old Westinghouse engine.

Good luck to Ansaldo anyway.

It will be interesting to see if Shanghai Electric can provide sufficient influence to make this work. Ansaldo on its own would have very little chance to make it, I think. It will still take them the best part of a decade and by then GE, Siemens and Mitsubishi would have moved on. I think the EC’s competition commissioner is fooling herself more than a little when she states that “Ansaldo will have a true fighting chance”. She is being far too optimistic, but maybe Shanghai can make the difference.

The Ec’s conditions does not have a great impact on the jobs that will be lost. This will stay at around 8,000 I think for GE. Of the jobs shifted to Ansaldo, I am not very optimistic.

A pity, because I think this marks the end of sequential combustion with a viable player.

I wouldn’t mind being proved wrong – but the probability is rather low.

But it’s good news for both Alstom and GE. For Ansaldo, it may be too much of a mouthful.

Tags:, , , ,
Posted in Business, Energy, Engineering, Technology | 1 Comment »

How Syrian refugees are helping to solve a German conundrum

September 8, 2015

Germany is now perceived as the land of “sanctuary” in Europe, which was once a position occupied by the UK for many years. Certainly after the xenophobia exhibited by the Hungarian government (but not by all Hungarians) and the reluctance of some other European governments to accept refugees (Czech Republic, Poland, Serbia, Denmark …..), Angela Merkel has won many brownie points by exhibiting a generosity not visible from other countries. In fact the response means that Germany now occupies the moral high ground. By announcing that they can take up to 500,000 per year for several years, they make other EU countries look like “hardhearted cheapskates”. The UK response, with 20,000 in 5 years makes Ebeneezer Scrooge look generous.  Even the US is shown up by German actions as just one of the group of countries who speak highly about the value of compassion but fail to walk the talk.

The Guardian:

Germany could take 500,000 refugees each year for “several years”, the country’s vice-chancellor, Sigmar Gabriel, has said, as fresh clashes broke out overnight between police and refugees on the Greek island of Lesbos and thousands of people gathered amid chaotic scenes on the Greek border with Macedonia.

“I believe we could surely deal with something in the order of half a million for several years,” he told ZDF public television. “I have no doubt about that, maybe more.” Germany expects to receive 800,000 asylum seekers this year, four times the total for 2014.

But this generosity is not entirely due to altruism.

In March this year I posted about a study by the Bertelsmann Stiftung which pointed out how Germany needed to have an immigration level of 500,000 per year till 2050 to overcome labour shortages and compensate for an ageing population. It pointed out that “efforts to attract skilled workers from non-EU countries should be intensified.”

The report also pointed out that it would be difficult to maintain the level of skilled immigration needed. It would seem that for Germany to be fairly generous with its approach to Syrian refugees is not just altruism but may well be in Germany’s self-interest. The Syrians generally have a much higher level of education and skills than is evident from refugees originating from Africa and those that stay in Germany may well be able to enter the productive work force much faster.

The Syrian refugees help solve a conundrum that was faced by Germany.

Zuwanderungsbedarf aus Drittstaaten in Deutschland bis 2050

Press Release: Without immigrants, the potential labor force would sink from approximately 45 million today to less than 29 million by 2050 – a decline of 36 percent. This gap cannot be closed without immigration. Even if women were to be employed at the same rate as men, and the retirement age was increased to 70 in 2035, the number of potential workers in the country would rise by only about 4.4 million.

In 2013, a total of 429,000 more people came to Germany than left the country. Last year, the net total was 470,000, the Federal Statistical Office reports. According to the study, net immigration at this level would be sufficient for at least the next 10 years to keep the country’s potential labor force at a constant level. From that time onward, however, the need for immigrants will grow, because the baby-boomer generation will be entering retirement. One out of two of today’s skilled workers with professional training will have left the working world by 2030. …

….. the current high levels of immigration from EU countries (2013: around 300,000) will soon decline significantly, as demographic change is shrinking populations across the European Union, and because incentives to emigrate in crisis-stricken countries will decline with economic recovery. The experts forecast an annual average of just 70,000 immigrants or fewer from EU counties by 2050. For this reason, efforts to attract skilled workers from non-EU countries should be intensified. …

But Angela Merkel is implementing today actions that will be needed by nearly all European countries suffering from a declining fertility and a rapidly ageing population. It is no accident that Germany is probably best placed in Europe to have a chance of maintaining the critical ratio of its working population to its supported population (under 15s and over 65s) beyond 2050.

I begin to see Angela Merkel as being much more long-sighted and much more of a visionary than I have ever given her credit for.

Tags:, ,
Posted in Behaviour, Demographics, European Union, Germany, Politics | Comments Off on How Syrian refugees are helping to solve a German conundrum

Clinton – artificial, Trump – genuine?

September 8, 2015

Sanders has now gone ahead of Clinton in one poll. Donald Trump maintains his lead.

The New York Times reports that Hillary Clinton’s strategists will now ensure that she shows “more humour and heart” and I wondered if this was not one of the key differences of perception between Trump and Clinton (and all other “conventional” politicians). Clinton and other politicians have strategists and aides who analyse and create an artificial persona that their principal is then supposed to put on show. The perception then is that whatever they say or do is then in support of this artificial persona, which has been calculated as being the most likely to gain voter support. With Trump however the perception is that you get to see the real Trump – warts and all. Real beats artificial.

Add to this the perception that Trump needs no funding from sponsors – looking for their pound of flesh – and is beholden to no one. I begin to think that what is driving the support for Trump is the voter fatigue with conventional politicians who are calculatedly artificial and who are in hock to their donors. Trump’s convictions are perceived to be real while those of others are seen to be “bought” and artificial.

Nobody doubts, even when Trump displays his ignorance in some areas – especially of foreign affairs – that he can always surround himself with knowledgeable people. And nobody doubts either that if he picks the wrong people, he knows how to fire them. It is his real track record being pitted against the implied erudition of others.

I see also that Paul Krugman is generally scornful of the economic policies of all the GOP candidates and especially those of Bush. In his latest column he puts Trump as the best of a bad lot. But one look at Trump’s real billions render all Krugman’s jargon and all his (failed) theories utterly toothless. In one phrase, Krugman basically stands for increased public spending. In fact, in a battle for minds between Trump’s real billions and Krugman’s artificial theories, the real billions on the bottom line carry much more credibility. Krugman stands for debt while Trump stands for real wealth.

If a perception that being “real” is what trumps being “artificial” is the theme now driving US voters, then Trump is going to be around for a long time yet. Conventional, artificial politicians (GOP and Democrat) are going to have a tough time against people fed-up with being sold made-up story lines.

NYT:  ……. In extensive interviews by telephone and at their Brooklyn headquarters last week, Mrs. Clinton’s strategists acknowledged missteps — such as their slow response to questions about her email practices — and promised that this fall the public would see the sides of Mrs. Clinton that are often obscured by the noise and distractions of modern campaigning. 

They want to show her humor. The self-effacing kind (“The hair is real, the color isn’t,” she said of her blond bob recently, taking note of Mr. Trump) has played better than her sarcastic retorts, such as when she asked if wiping a computer server was done “with a cloth.” …

They want to show her heart, like the time she comforted former drug addicts in a school meeting room in New Hampshire.

But the widespread presumption of Hillary Clinton as being untrustworthy, cold, calculating and not very effective (Libya) is firmly ingrained. To now try and show her as being a warm, funny, “nice” but efficient person is not going to fly.

Perhaps the paradigm shift in the 2016 election will be that “real” trumps “artificial”.

Tags:,
Posted in Behaviour, Economy, Politics, US | Comments Off on Clinton – artificial, Trump – genuine?

Good breeding, wrong result?

September 7, 2015

The success of any breeding program must, in the first instance, be measured by the numbers of descendants and whether the line continues or not. Any line of descent which ends with an individual, no matter how successful or useful a particular individual is (or was), is then a failed line of descent. In terms of survival of the breed, each of the 7 billion people alive today is equally successful. It is all those who leave no descendants who have – from a breeding perspective – failed.

Each living person has much the same number of preceding generations and preceding ancestors as the  next. From the beginning of modern humans (say 120,000 years ago) each person alive today is the product of around 6,000 generations. And so I am a little amused when some claim a “superiority of breeding” – or “good” breeding – just because they know the names of 10 or 50 or 83 individuals along one of their lines of descent. Even 83 out of 6,000 is fairly insignificant. From a breeding point of view the only point of significance is if a line continues.

There is even a claim in China that a direct descendant of Confucius was

K’ung Te-ch’eng (23 February 1920 – 28 October 2008) was a 77th generation descendant of Confucius in the main line of descent. He was the final person to be appointed Duke Yansheng and the first Sacrificial Official to Confucius –Wikipedia

But considering that Confucius’ genes would have been diluted by the order of at least 1/ 230  (one in a billion) in the following 77th generation, it is of little consequence genetically. But “Confucius’ family, the Kongs, have the longest recorded extant pedigree in the world today”. The father-to-son family tree, is now in its 83rd generation (2,600 years) and it does at least signify a successful and continuing line of descent. There are thought to be about 2 million descendants of Confucius alive today.

In comparison some of the British aristocracy can identify father-to-son family trees perhaps back to the 13th century but more usually from about the 15th or 16th centuries.

But knowing the names of some of ones ancestors – and even 83 out of 6,000 generations seems quite trivial – says very little about “good breeding”. Even the poorest, most miserable, most unintelligent person alive today has as long a pedigree as any British aristocrat or any of the descendants of Confucius. The key point, of course, is that a person knowing none of his ancestors – but alive today – has been just as successful in the breeding stakes as anybody else alive today. And that person’s breeding has been more successful than all the blue-blooded aristocrats whose lines of descent are now extinct.

And that is why I found this story in The Telegraph both trivial, interesting and amusing:

Rift at Longleat over ‘racism’ towards Britain’s first black marchioness

It is known as one of Britain’s most eccentric aristocratic estates, where elaborate murals of the Karma Sutra adorn the walls and the head of the family, the Marquess of Bath, cavorts with his mistresses, or “wifelets”.

Now family relations have become even more fraught at Longleat, the vast Elizabethan seat in Wiltshire, after the heir to the estate accused his mother of racism towards his half-Nigerian wife.

The rift between the marquess’s son and heir Ceawlin Thynn, Viscount Weymouth, and his mother, the marchioness, is so bad that she was not invited to his wedding, ……. 

The marchioness, who has spent more time at Longleat since the death of her long-term lover in France, is said to ignore her son’s wife when they cross paths in the grounds of the estate.

Emma McQuiston, who married Viscount Weymouth in 2013, is the daughter of a Nigerian father, oil tycoon Ladi Jadesimi, and British mother, Suzanna McQuiston. She will become Britain’s first black marchioness when her husband inherits the title from his father.

McQuiston has known the Bath family since she was a child, but when the couple announced their engagement, Viscount Weymouth, 41, claims his mother asked: “Are you sure about what you’re doing to 400 years of bloodline?”

The viscount told the Sunday Times that his 71-year-old mother has no contact with their baby son, John, because, “I don’t want him contaminated by that sort of atmosphere and those sort of views”. …….

I note that the Marchioness is Hungarian and that the current Marquess of Bath has had up to 70 “wifelets” living on the estate.

Good breeding, wrong result?

 

Tags:, , , ,
Posted in Behaviour, Trivia | Comments Off on Good breeding, wrong result?

Religions have no values – people do

September 5, 2015

I wish all organised religions were obsolete and I am hopeful that eventually they will be. I find it obscene that children are brainwashed into “religious beliefs” and that organised religions presume to impose their orthodoxies onto others. A belief cannot exist in the space of knowledge. All religions are merely “belief systems” which live in the space of ignorance and it irritates me that religions compete on the grounds of “my ignorance being superior to yours”. An individual can well have religious beliefs and I see nothing wrong with that. What I dislike is that a group imposes a “belief” – which is nothing but an ignorance – on an individual. That is my definition of brain-washing. “What I don’t know is better than what you don’t know”.

Values are created from an informed judgement by a thinking person. Is it good, is it bad? What is beautiful, or admirable, or ethical, or not, are all judgements made by individuals after a cognitive process. They do not come out of group-think. I would suggest that an individual’s value comes first and the values of a group can only be built up as a composite of the many different individual values in the group. A “group value” once created can be imposed on an individual as “a rule to be obeyed”, but that does not make it his value. A value requires a cognitive process, and as long we don’t have ESP the cognitive process is an individual property.

Values are – and can only be – those of individuals – not of religions. Religions kill infidels or unbelievers alike by exploiting those of their followers who give little value to human life. Religions make rules. These rules are not values. Values, as a cognitive property, are inherent in thinking individuals. Unthinking individuals follow a lazy path and adopt – or are coerced into adopting – religious rules to be their “values”. Or they accept the imposition of somebody else’s values because they are too lazy to think through their own. It is the same with governments. They make rules. These rules are not values.

I cannot see that there is any such thing as “Christian values” or “Muslim values”. I can see the values (or absence of values) exploited by the hierarchies of organised religions. Were Nazi values also Christian values as they claimed to be? Were they Christian values on display in Northern Ireland? or in Bosnia? Is anti-semitism a fundamental Christian value? Or were they Muslim values which led to all the predatory grooming of young girls in Rotherham? Or Muslim values which gives the barbarism of the IS? Catholics versus Protestants is not so different to Shia versus Sunni.

In the current displacement of Syrian and other refugees – from countries destabilised and bombed to ruins by the EU and the US in the name of democracy – there is much talk of “European values”. Without the destruction of Iraq and Libya and attempted nation building in Syria by the EU, there would be no IS and few Syrian refugees.  “European values” are being used to both argue for and against providing help to the refugees created to a large degree by US and European actions. These supposed ” European values” are used both by the left to prop up their moralising and by the nationalist right to paint alarmist pictures. The right likes to see the issue as an epic battle between “Christian values” and Muslim values”. It is also worth noting that in Europe today, it is Germany – not the UK – which is perceived by refugees as the land to seek sanctuary in. But there is no such well-defined thing as “European values”. Values across Europe are not homogeneous. They are a mishmash of values ranging from sanctimonious humanism at one end through to virulent xenophobia at the other.

I find that values are independent of religion but a supposed connection is hijacked by political parties to suit themselves. The nationalist right still believes they are on a Crusade. The IS does the same in their pursuit of jihad. But the reality is as the Hungarian Prime Minister puts into words. It is what is thought by virtually all right wing nationalist parties in Europe and their supporters (and that includes UK, Sweden, Germany, Austria, France, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and Greece among others).

IB Times:

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has warned that the growing Muslim influx is threatening Europe’s “Christian roots”. Defending Hungary’s response to the migrant crisis, Orban said his country did not want to admit large numbers of Muslims.

Writing an opinion piece in Germany’s Frankfurt Allgemeine Zeitung, the Hungarian prime minister said: “Those arriving have been raised in another religion, and represent a radically different culture. Most of them are not Christians, but Muslims. That is an important question, because Europe and European culture have Christian roots. Or is it not already and in itself alarming that Europe’s Christian culture is barely in a position to uphold Europe’s own Christian values? …. Is it not worrying in itself that European Christianity is now barely able to keep Europe Christian? There is no alternative, and we have no option but to defend our borders.”

The issue of the day – and for the next few years – in Europe is the inflow of foreigners (refugees, asylum seekers, guest workers, and other immigrants) in to countries where otherwise population would decline. (And therefore for the next decade it is going to be the issue of “immigration” which will dominate all European elections). The paradox I see is that Europe needs to get its population to stop declining. The “native European” birth rate is not going to increase and therefore immigration must increase. And at the same time so will the xenophobia – at least for another decade or two.

Neither governments or religions have – or can have – values. People do. And when it comes to Christians versus Muslims, I wish “a plague on both your houses”. When organised religions finally do become obsolete, it will not eliminate the murderous inclinations of many humans. But it will remove one excuse used to justify the hate and the barbarism.

Tags:,
Posted in Behaviour, Europe, Religion | 1 Comment »

12% job losses to be expected post approval of GE – Alstom deal

September 4, 2015

Everything points to GE getting approval next week from the European Commission (deadline 11th September) for its acquisition of Alstom’s Power and Grid businesses – subject to some of the remedies proposed by GE to meet EC concerns about competition. The specific nature of the remedies have not been made public but rumours indicate that these comprise divestment of a service company and a facility in Switzerland to Ansaldo along with some IP, (see previous posts).

Around 65,000 Alstom employees would be transferred (though I am assuming that the JV’s being set-up (Grid, Renewable Power and Nuclear) are just a step along the way to complete divestment. Alstom can exit the Grid and Renewable Power businesses (50% minus one share) by September 2019 for an exit price not less than the acquisition price +3% per year. Alstom has windows for exit from the Nuclear JV (20% minus one share) “for 3 months after the 5th and 6th anniversaries of the joint venture” with an “exit price not to be lower than acquisition price +2% per year”. I assume that Alstom has a put option and that GE is obliged to buy – provided of course that no hidden liabilities show up in the businesses as happened when Alstom acquired ABB’s power generation business in 2000.

Alstom GE JVs (EGM Dec 2014)

Alstom GE JVs (EGM Dec 2014)

Alstom EGM presentation 2014-12-18

Alstom employees breakdown March 2014

Alstom employees breakdown March 2014

That there will be job losses among the 65,000 so transferred is inevitable. The logical conclusion would be that jobs in high-cost countries – except where they are also where the market is – would be most at risk. But as I saw through my years at ABB and Alstom, logic does not always apply. Both ABB and Alstom were (and probably still are) very Eurocentric. Quite often I saw under-utilisation in Europe being taken as the “cost to be avoided” rather than the minimising of total cost. Then, fully loaded jobs in low-cost countries were removed or transferred to Europe to increase loading in European facilities – but which only helped to increase total costs. Also, it was always so much cheaper (redundancy payments) to get rid of jobs in India or China or Indonesia than in France or Germany. So I do expect that similar “political preferences” will still apply for European jobs, though GE should be less inclined to fool themselves over the false economy of maintaining high-cost jobs for saving the “avoided cost” of under-utilisation. (A qualified, engineering job in Europe costs – or saves – at least twice as much as one in India or China after including for wages and all support facilities). On the other hand, GE now has to fulfill some political expectations from the French government and the European Commission. So jobs in France are protected and possibly also in Italy as well, but Eastern Europe and even some developing countries may well take a hit. Switzerland is quite exposed, both for cost and lack of political clout in the EU.

However, GE is also under pressure to implement its cost cutting program and the delay in the EC approval only adds to the pressure to make quick cuts.

Reuters: General Electric Co is expected to win regulatory approval next week for its purchase of the power equipment business of France’s Alstom, allowing the U.S. industrial conglomerate to finally carry out a major cost-cutting program 16 months after first announcing the deal. ……… 

In May, GE told investors it expects $3 billion in cost reductions over the next five years as it combines its operations with those of Alstom, more than double the previous target when the deal was first announced in April 2014.

GE has also projected the deal would add 15 to 20 cents per share to earnings in 2018, or nearly 10 percent of GE’s overall profit expected that year by Wall Street, according to Thomson Reuters.  

To hit those goals, GE will consolidate manufacturing operations, cut duplicated overheads, and make savings on purchasing expenses, according to GE presentations on the deal. But to gain the blessing of the French government last year, GE committed to add 1,000 jobs in the country, possibly handcuffing the conglomerate’s ability to reap savings from Alstom’s home base.

My (entirely speculative) reasoning suggests that GE must reduce this 65,000 employees from Alstom by around 12% quickly – say over 12 – 18 months. GE should certainly be able to reduce headcount globally by around 8,000. That will give a saving of only around €500 million annually (€800 million if all the job cuts were in Europe) and further rationalisation will still be needed if GE is to meet its target of $3 billion cost reduction in 5 years. (A $3 billion annual cost reduction is massive. If it was all to be found only by job reductions it would mean around 30,000 jobs).

Over 1,200 of these jobs could go as a consequence of the “remedies” proposed by GE and the consequent divestments to Ansaldo. Around 1,000 of these jobs in Switzerland will likely transfer to Ansaldo and then perhaps around 600 will disappear completely. I note that around 3,000 of the 65,000 jobs transferred are for shared and common services (IT, support facilities, legal and the like). I would be quite surprised if GE could not find sufficient synergies with their existing staff in these areas, and cut at least 1,500 of these jobs. Between 6 and 7,000 of the jobs transferred would be in the US where GE is already very well represented. Again, I would be quite surprised if GE could not find at least 1,000 jobs in the US which were effectively duplicates. Some duplicate manufacturing facilities would also need to be rationalised (Poland? China? Italy?).

It is only my speculation but I could see the initial 8,000 jobs to be reduced consisting of (as an example),

  1. 1,000 in Switzerland divested to Ansaldo
  2. 200 in other locations (service business) divested to Ansaldo
  3. 1,500 reduction in central and shared services
  4. 1,000 jobs rationalisation in the US
  5. 1,000 manufacturing and engineering jobs in duplicated facilities
  6. plus a 5% personnel reduction across the board

There will be much pain in the short-term. I have been through the process myself on more than 6 occasions (downsizing or acquiring or being acquired), and it is the handling of people which is by far the biggest challenge. While it will be of benefit to both Alstom and GE in the long-term (to their investors, their continuing employees and to their customers), that is not much comfort to those who lose their jobs.

Tags:, , ,
Posted in Behaviour, Business, Energy, Engineering, Technology | Comments Off on 12% job losses to be expected post approval of GE – Alstom deal

MH370: To believe “with certainty” remains “not certain”

September 3, 2015

UPDATE! I have just seen another report and it seems the “belief” is mainly in the BBC report. The French prosecutors (in another translation) have “stated with certainty”…

 

To believe with certainty does not convert a belief – which lies in the space of ignorance – into the space of knowledge.

BBC: French prosecutors have said they believe “with certainty” that a wing part found on Reunion Island in July came from missing flight MH370. ……

……. Prosecutors in Paris, who had until now been more cautious on the provenance of the debris, said a technician from Airbus Defense and Space (ADS-SAU) in Spain, which had made the part for Boeing, had formally identified one of three numbers found on the flaperon as being from MH370.

It does seem highly probable that the flaperon comes from a Boeing 777 and the identifying number which would specify it came from MH370 has now been “formally identified”. In which case I wonder why it is still a “belief”. Presumably there is some lack of certainty in this “identification”. 

It seems very probable now that that it comes from MH370 but as long it is a belief it remains in the space of ignorance.

And assuming it is certain that it definitely comes from a Boeing 777 then there are still 4 remaining alternatives (excluding MH17), as CopperNickus pointed out a month ago:

43 Boeing 777’s are no longer in service. If the flaperon is not from MH370, it could be from one of these

5 are no longer in service because they were damaged and written off:

SU-GBP damaged beyond repair. Wings intact. 

G-YMMM damaged beyond repair, flaperon intact. 

HL7742 damaged beyond repair, flaperon possibly damaged. 

9M-MRD (MH17) Shot down, flaperon likely destroyed, no photo of right flaperon. Left flaperon shown in top photo here: …

9M-MRO (MH370) Missing, flaperon status unknown, possibly found on Reunion Island. 

32 are in storage

6 have been scrapped

 

Tags:
Posted in Aviation | Comments Off on MH370: To believe “with certainty” remains “not certain”

Did Amnesty just make up the story of the Indian sisters to be raped as punishment?

September 3, 2015

There are a number of bodies who I once admired but whose veracity can no longer be relied upon. I take anything from Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth, the World Wildlife Fund and now Amnesty with a very large shovel of salt. Their exaggerations, alarmism and plain lies means that I have come to discount virtually everything they publicise to a large degree. They have made it all too plain that they believe their ends are so good that it justifies some lying and fraud and deception along the way.

Over the last few days Amnesty International and the World Press have made much of a story where two sisters were “sentenced” by village elders (panchayat) to be gang-raped as punishment because their brother had “eloped” with a woman of higher caste. There was much indignation and gnashing of teeth.

But now it would seem that the whole story was probably just made up by Amnesty. In the best interpretation Amnesty has been gullible to the point of stupidity. In the worst interpretation Amnesty exploited these sisters for their own agenda by making up the whole story and implementing a deliberate PR campaign. Mind you, the world’s press have then been pretty gullible as well and their fact-checking has been virtually absent.

Daily Mirror: The village council accused of ordering the rape of two Indian sisters because their brother ran off with a higher caste woman has denied it ever ordered the sickening punishment. 

The news that the women were to be assaulted because of their brother’s actions led to an international outcry and hundreds of thousands of people have demanded their safety.

Now, members of the village council in the Baghpat region of northern India have told Reuters they passed no such order.

Family members of the two sisters also said they are unsure if the ruling was made – while local police deny any such directive was given.

When the accusations first emerged last month, they spread like wildfire. An online petition by Amnesty International seeking justice and protection for the low-caste sisters gathered over 260,000 signatures, mostly in Britain.

But family members said it may have just been gossip.

“It is all hearsay, we don’t know if this actually happened,” said Dharam Pal Singh, 55, the women’s father and a retired soldier. “We heard it from other villagers.” He identified one of the villagers, a man who also said he had heard it from others.

Tags:,
Posted in Alarmism, Behaviour, Ethics | Comments Off on Did Amnesty just make up the story of the Indian sisters to be raped as punishment?

« Older Entries
Newer Entries »