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Phantom Russian submarines show up (UK, Sweden) when defence budgets are being discussed

November 23, 2015

I get more cynical with each day, but it is remarkably coincidental that mysterious Russian submarines show up off the Swedish coast and now, even off the UK coast, just when defence budgets are being discussed.

BBC: An RAF plane is “conducting activity” off the Scottish coast, the Ministry of Defence says, amid reports of a Russian submarine being spotted in the area.

A Royal Navy Frigate and submarine are also thought to be involved in the search, along with Canadian and French maritime patrol aircraft.

But the same incident is also reported by Sputnik News:

British and French forces are looking for what the UK media has termed a “Russian submarine” as the country’s navy calls for budget increases.

Britain’s navy and air force have spent at least ten days searching for what the country’s media have called a “Russian submarine”, the BBC reported. The country’s defense ministry did not confirm that it was looking for a foreign submarine in its statement. This is the third time the UK has conducted search operations, according to the Telegraph, with the previous instance(s) tied to demands for higher defense spending.

Just a year ago it was the Swedish defence forces who claimed to be playing hide-and-seek with a mysterious Russian mini-submarine in the Stockholm archipelago. No submarine was found of course and I wrote then.

Perhaps there is a submarine out there. Perhaps it was in distress. Perhaps it was testing Swedish defences.

I have my doubts. Maybe I am just being cynical but I see two “drivers” here. A push for NATO membership and a larger defence budget. There is a new Red/Green government in place and they are due to present their first budget proposal today. Normally the Red/Greens could be expected to cut back on defence spending and they are ideologically not at all comfortable in joining NATO. They have an idealised and somewhat glorified vision of a “Swedish neutrality” even if it is completely contradicted by the reality of cooperation with the US and NATO for at least the last 30 years. Public opinion is against NATO membership – but only just. The Swedish military would just love to be part of NATO and take part not only in exercises but also in some real live fire-fights. The Swedish military – for all its restricted defence budget – is quite technologically advanced but lack playgrounds for their toys. Being part of NATO would provide more playgrounds and even more toys and many more players to play with.

In the case of the UK it seems to be a play written by the Ministry of Defence bureaucrats to protect their turf, when general budget cuts are in the air.  It seems to be a defensive ploy against the expected actions from George Osborne. The French defence ministry is also afraid of cuts by the socialist government. In the Swedish case it is more likely to have been a play written by the military rather than the bureaucracy. The military would very much like to be a part of NATO and the Red/Green Government is perceived as a greater threat than phantom Russian submarines.

There is little doubt that the weapons industry is not averse to promoting and developing their markets, even to the extent of instigating conflicts (Africa, Middle East). Compared to their machinations, a few phantom Russian submarines, invented by bureaucrats and occasionally getting lost in the Baltic or the North Sea, is only very minor disinformation. It is only mildly unethical, hurts no-one, and is surely allowable for the worthy cause of protecting defence budgets.

Triton NN submersible

 

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UN Resolution 2249 (2015) has implicitly invoked Chapter 7 and sanctions military action against ISIL in Iraq and Syria

November 21, 2015

UN SC Res 2249

UN Resolution 2249 which was passed yesterday at the initiative of France actually does invoke Chapter 7 of the UN Charter and goes very much further than some are arguing. The resolution does not just sanction action against ISIL (ISIS) but calls on member states which can act, to do so:

”  Calls upon Member States that have the capacity to do so to take all necessary measures, …….  on the territory under the control of ISIL also known as Da’esh, in Syria and Iraq, to redouble and coordinate their efforts to prevent and suppress terrorist acts….”

Any member nation is therefore fully authorised  – in international law – by this resolution to attack ISIL (ISIS) (or any other of the named terrorist groups) in Syria or in Iraq. 

I have heard arguments from the left in the UK that this is not the explicit UN sanction for military action under Chapter 7 that they are looking for before agreeing to any attacks on ISIS in Syria, but this is just wishful and incorrect thinking. The UN itself explains in its Research Report No. 1 that the Security Council can exercise its Chapter 7 powers without explicitly invoking Chapter 7 in the text of a Security Council resolution.

UN Research Report No 1 Chapter VII 23 June 08

There can be no doubt that Chapter 7 is being implicitly invoked.

UN Charter

The beginning of Chapter 7 (Article 39) is specifically addressed to “any threat to the peace, breach of the peace, or act of aggression” and yesterday’s resolution “determines …….  the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as Da’esh), constitutes a global and unprecedented threat to international peace and security”.

The United States Deputy Ambassador to the UN provides this explanation to the US President of yesterday’s resolution:

Mr. President, in recent weeks barbaric terrorist attacks have startled the world’s conscience. From Europe to Africa to the Middle East, innocent men and women have been slaughtered. Families destroyed in Beirut. Concertgoers slain in Paris. Air passengers bombed in the sky. Tourists killed on the beach in Tunisia. ……

For this reason, we welcome and applaud this resolution’s resolute call on states to take all necessary measures in compliance with international law to counter ISIL and the al-Nusrah Front. We must also choke off funding, arms, recruitment, and other kinds of support to ISIL and the al-Nusrah Front.

As the resolution recognizes, Iraq has made it clear that it is facing a serious threat of continuing attacks from ISIL, in particular coming out of safe havens in Syria; and the Assad regime in Syria has shown that it cannot and will not suppress this threat, even as it undertakes actions that benefit the extremists’ recruiting. In this regard, working with Iraq, the United States has been leading international efforts to provide assistance to combat the threat that ISIL poses to the security of its people and territory, and we are taking, in accordance with the UN Charter and its recognition of the inherent right of individual and collective self-defense, necessary and proportionate military action to deny ISIL safe haven. …….

Any government of a member state in general, and the UK government in particular, needs no further UN sanction if they wish to act against ISIS in Iraq or in Syria. In fact with this resolution in place it is quite unlikely that the UN Security Council will produce another resolution to cover ground already covered.

David Cameron now has all the UN sanction that he could ever desire to extend military strikes on ISIS in Syria. He can even, with justification, go to his parliament at any time and explain that all member states with the capacity to attack ISIL (ISIS) in Syria have a duty to do so under Resolution 2249 (2015). St Jeremy really has no leg to stand on – Chapter 7 has already been invoked.

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“ISIS first, Assad later” gains traction but St. Jeremy makes UK the weakest European actor against ISIS

November 18, 2015

Most of Europe is now falling behind the Russian strategy of “ISIS first, Assad later” as being the only viable way forward in Syria. The UK is also acquiescing with this line, but only verbally, since it is prevented from making any strikes in Syria without parliamentary authority to do so. With the self-canonised St. Jeremy Corbyn now in charge of the Labour party, such a vote may be a long time coming. After Paris, Hollande – though a St. Jeremy soul-mate in normal times – is forced to go all out against ISIS and is now coordinating attacks with Russia. Even Germany is considering supporting military action against ISIS. France has invoked a treaty provision for the first time ever and called for support from the other EU countries. All EU countries have promised that – as yet undefined – support. But the UK is now perceived as the weakest European actor against ISIS terrorism. The instant and automatic opposition of the SNP to any government motion and the naivete of St. Jeremy (which is not so innocent) has seen to that.

The Barack Obama – US led coalition’s “strategy”, if it can be called a strategy, has been to get rid of Assad at all costs. What was to happen afterwards or the question of whether Syria, as a nation , could even exist was left to the future to determine. It has been Russia’s reluctance to abandon Assad and his regime which has prevented any UN resolutions of any significance. Before the Russians recently started their attacks on ISIS they tried to rally support for the strategy of attacking ISIS and other rebels/terrorists first (which would help Assad) and then arranging for Assad to leave the scene after ensuring a transition to something sustainable. Obama and Kerry virtually dismissed that idea but did not go so far as to set themselves up against any Russian strikes on ISIS. The US and their coalition partners did, however, try and project the view that Russian intervention was more harmful than helpful.

After the Russian passenger plane was destroyed by – it is claimed – ISIS, the Western objections to the targets of the Russian strikes were a little more muted. Now after Paris, France has signed up to the line of “ISIS first, Assad later”. The rest of Europe is falling-in line with the notable exception of the UK. The Kurds love this, the Turks don’t. Saudi Arabia is very apprehensive that even if Assad eventually goes, a Shia government could still remain in place. Besides, they are reluctant to be seen to be accepting the demise of a Sunni organisation, even if it is as murderous as ISIS. From Kerry’s recent statements it seems as if the US is preparing the ground to also accept this strategy though the US, of course, can never be seen to falling-in behind Russia.

One way for the UK to save face and even get involved in Syria, would be if a UN resolution establishing “ISIS first, Assad later” could be accepted in the Security Council. Possibly the UK could propose it and recover some of the face they have already lost. Neither the Russians or the US would then veto such a resolution, though one or both might abstain depending upon the text. But it should not be impossible in the present climate. That would give the hapless St, Jeremy something to hide behind when a vote is called for in parliament. But he has already cost the UK a great deal of political clout in the fight against ISIS.

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The UK’s new fifth-column: Labour party would not strike ISIS in Syria – even if it had been London rather than Paris

November 15, 2015

With the new, Jeremy Corbyn led, Labour Party, the UK needs no external enemies. An indigenous fifth-column. A few days ago Jeremy Corbyn felt that Jihadi John should not have been killed but arrested to face a court of law. He also declared that he would never use nuclear weapons in any circumstances. Now his Shadow Foreign Secretary, Hilary Benn, has also demonstrated his own fifth-column credentials in an interview with The Independent.

(It should be borne in mind that The Independent is far from independent and is essentially a socialist propaganda sheet, and its reports must be appropriately discounted. Hilary Benn has no particular claims to fame except that Tony Benn was his father and he is a friend of Jeremy Corbyn. He tries to be further to the left than his father to get out from under his shadow. So his pronouncements are even more extreme than Tony Benn’s but he is not half as likeable. He is not much liked by the farming community either since, by not permitting badger culls, he bears some responsibility for the spread of bovine TB in the UK).

The Independent:

Shadow Foreign Secretary Hilary Benn said the co-ordinated attacks on the French capital, which left at least 127 dead, were an “act of war” – but all but ruled out backing UK air strikes in response. 

He said that the idea of British action against Isis in Syria should be put to one side until the country’s civil war had been brought to an end.

Mr Benn, speaking exclusively to The Independent on Sunday, said that the Government should drop plans for a new House of Commons vote authorising military attacks in Syria to concentrate on peace talks and providing humanitarian support for refugees.

His intervention dramatically undermines David Cameron’s hopes of joining the United States-led action against Isis in its Syrian heartland. The Prime Minister, who insisted the French fight against IS was also Britain’s, has maintained he will not ask MPs to authorise RAF bombing raids in Syria until a “political consensus” has been reached. 

It can only be concluded that even if it had been London that had been attacked by ISIS rather than Paris, Benn, Corbyn and the Labour party would be advocating a softly-softly approach and entertaining negotiations with ISIS. There is, no doubt, a little bit of a reaction to Blair’s war-mongering in Iraq in all this, but the naivety of Corbyn and Benn is astounding.

ISIS must feel that it must be the will of Allah that they have the unwitting support of the dupes in the new Labour Party and especially in its child-like, simple-minded leadership.

I like this cartoon from Schrank which I think captures my image of Corbyn.

  • Left – no matter what.
  • No nuclear – no matter what.
  • No bombing ISIS – no matter what.
  • No spending cuts – no matter what.
  • No austerity – no matter what.
  • No Queen – no matter what.

Left – no matter what  — from schrankartoons.com

 

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Is the Scottish Nationalist Party inherently racist?

November 13, 2015

The natural corollary for any “nationalist” party is a discrimination against “non-nationals”. In fact it is very difficult to be a “nationalist” without also being xenophobic. In many countries in Europe the nationalist parties are very often also anti-immigrant and inherently racist to varying degrees. Nationalist, racist parties are usually on the far-right and often have a Nazi or a neo-Nazi past

Ruth Wodak …… divided these parties into four groups: “parties [that] gain support via an ambivalent relationship with fascist and Nazi pasts” (e.g., in Austria, Hungary, Italy, Romania, and France), parties that “focus primarily on a perceived threat from Islam” (e.g., in the Netherlands, Denmark, Poland, Sweden, and Switzerland), parties that “restrict their propaganda to a perceived threat to their national identities from ethnic minorities” (e.g., in Hungary, Greece, Italy, and the United Kingdom) and parties that “endorse a fundamentalist Christian conservative-reactionary agenda” (e.g., in Poland, Romania and Bulgaria)

Occasionally the nationalists come from the far-left as with Syriza in Greece or the far-left parties in Portugal. The Scottish Nationalist Party is about as far left as you can get without being just another Communist Party. But it is now becoming clear that the SNP also has a nucleus of not only xenophobic but also anti-semitic views. In the latest instance the party and the party leader have had to apologise abjectly for one of their member’s “grotesque” anti-semitic views.

Daily Mail: A Scottish Nationalist MSP was at the centre of a race-hate storm last night after sharing an anti-Semitic image online which was compared to the ‘very worst of Nazi propaganda’. Sandra White made a humiliating apology to a Jewish group which condemned the ‘bizarre and hateful’ image she circulated to her thousands of followers on social media website Twitter.

But campaigners said that she should be disciplined for ‘retweeting’ the disturbing cartoon. A petition, which had 500 supporters last night, was launched by campaigners calling on the Glasgow Kelvin MSP to quit. ………. As the row intensified last night, First Minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon apologised to the Scottish Council of Jewish Communities (ScoJec) for the ‘abhorrent’ post, which Mrs White insisted she had accidentally retweeted.

That this is not an isolated incident is apparent from the recent headlines:

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Corbyn’s 8º genuflection for Remembrance Day

November 9, 2015

I can’t help comparing Jeremy Corbyn to Michael Foot and finding Corbyn a pale imitation. Foot caused the Labour Party to split and his 1983 election manifesto was called the “longest suicide note in history”. Foot lost the election in a landslide. Corbyn is now attempting to follow that route. If his acolytes succeed in removing some of the more centrist Labour MP’s, I suppose new, new, Labour could split again. It will be interesting to see if Labour keeps him for the next election and by how much he can lose. Especially since Corbyn is not of the calibre that Foot was. Foot wins in intellect, in charm, in leadership qualities (however misguided the direction), in rhetoric and above all in having some class. Compared to Foot, Corbyn seems almost boorish.

An Army general has just pointed out that committing not to use your most potent weapon, if it was ever needed, was not a very sound defence strategy or policy. Corbyn is enraged at this incursion of military servants into his politics.

His latest debacle is his reluctant attendance at the the Remembrance Day ceremonies. He did wear a poppy after threatening not to, but the depth of his unwilling genuflection is now causing comment. As I was once instructed in Japan, the Emperor commanded 60º, ancestors about 45º and the CEO got 30º.  I would have expected honourable dead soldiers of the Great War would have been worth at least 30º. Corbyn managed about 8º.

A very stiff neck indeed.

Corbyn 8 degrees

Corbyn’s 8 degree genuflection – original photo from daily mail

 

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Isn’t it rich …..

August 18, 2015

The clowns have it so far.

Donald Trump is being taken as a “serious clown” and so is Jeremy Corbyn in the UK Labour party. Even the Democrats are beginning to realise that they need to lighten the staid, boring and almost too earnest bill of fare they have to offer. They need a clown.

In the US, Donald Trump is setting the agenda from the front and his act is beginning to attract even his rivals. Scott Walker and other Republicans are jumping on Trump’s immigration train (children of illegals born in the US should not have automatic citizenship and The Wall). Former senator Rick Santorum (Pa.) and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal have also hopped onto this train. Even the Washington Post is beginning to analyse Trump’s positions – as they gather flesh – a little more seriously.

In the UK Labour party leadership fight, Corbyn the clown is so far ahead that his nearest rival (also union supported), Andy Burnham, is now finding that he actually does not disagree with Corbyn all that much. It looks like the Unions will win and that the Labour party is starting down the road to oblivion.

But the Democrats are looking more jaded each day. Hilary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden and Al Gore are all coming off as “has-beens and past-its”. Sanders has tried to take on the mantle of a clown but does not quite make it. They desperately need someone to capture the Democratic imagination. Where are the clowns?

The Trump phenomenon continues and the latest Fox poll puts him at 25% and his nearest rival 13 points behind.

WaPo:

The ideas once languished at the edge of Republican politics, confined to think tanks and no-hope bills on Capitol Hill. To solve the problem of illegal immigration, truly drastic measures were necessary: Deport the undocumented en masse. Seize the money they try to send home. Deny citizenship to their U.S.-born children.

Now, all of those ideas have been embraced by Donald Trump, the front-runner in the Republican presidential race, who has followed up weeks of doomsaying about illegal immigrants with a call for an unprecedented crackdown.

On Monday, Trump’s hard turn was already influencing the rest of the GOP field. In Iowa, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker also began to call for a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border, echoing a longtime Trump demand. Walker said the separation barrier between Israel and the Palestinian territories is proof that the concept could work here.

Walker also seemed to echo Trump by questioning “birthright citizenship,” the constitutional provision that grants citizenship to anyone born in this country. After a reporter asked if birthright citizenship should be ended, Walker said: “I think that’s something we should — yeah, absolutely, going forward.”

The Hilary Clinton momentum is dissipating away with her e-mails. Even the rabidly supportive Huffington Post is getting concerned:

Things are getting weird when even Al Gore is thinking of getting into the Democratic presidential race, which is turning into a last hurrah for the Baby Boomers and their tad-older camp counselors.

Hillary Clinton, permanently punctilious, has done everything right: She put her HQ in Brooklyn, hired savvy digital/social/big data nerds, raised a ton of dough, gave substantive, well-thought-out speeches and flooded early primary and caucus states with organizers. She’s still the default bet for the Democratic nomination: national polls show her with a fat 36 percent lead.

And yet all is not well in Hillaryland. Polls also indicate that voters now view her as untrustworthy. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), whose DeLorean time machine is in overdrive, is drawing colossal crowds and, according to one poll, now leads the former secretary of state in New Hampshire. Vice President Joe Biden, who had previously said “no way,” is now sounding serious about jumping in. So, we are told, is Gore, who was warning of environmental doom as far back as the ‘60s.

Meanwhile the Guardian reports:

Andy Burnham has made an explicit plea to anyone thinking of voting for Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader to pick him instead for what he described as “the worst job in politics”, saying there was “a good deal of common ground” between him and the veteran leftwinger.

Sondheim again –

 Isn’t it rich?
Are we a pair?
Me here at last on the ground,
You in mid-air.
Send in the clowns.

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Will Trump or Corbyn step down?

July 24, 2015

The clowns went in when the Labour party in the UK and the Republicans in the US both found their own audiences were deserting them. Just some light entertainment thought the aspirants for leadership. In the UK some actually nominated the clown to “widen appeal” and liven things up, thinking he was a no-hoper.

But the respective electorates are in no mood for the clowns to be just a relieving act before the main show. They are inclined to make the comedy act the main show.

The clowns are still in the lead.

But what was initial amusement at Trump’s antics and Corbyn’s naive Marxism is now becoming a nervous panic within their respective parties. It sounds like the nervous giggling before the catastrophe. It is beginning to sink in that a Corbyn win could split the UK Labour party and keep both parts in the wilderness for decades to come. In the US, the other Republican hopefuls are all united in castigating Trump. But the disillusioned Republican voters in the country are staying with the comedy act. If the opposition to Trump continues, he could go it alone and that would fracture the Republican vote so fundamentally that they could be kept out of the White House for the next 4 terms.

Could Trump or Corbyn step aside and save their parties?

Their parties probably need them to. But that will not happen unless there are other credible and convincing candidates for the leadership position. And such figures are conspicuous by their absence, both in the UK and in the US. The Labour party only has lightweights to offer and the Republicans only some less accomplished clowns. The Republican field of candidates must be quite depressing for party members.

Still, there is little doubt that the clowns are livening things up.

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The all white, all Oxbridge, representatives of the British “working class”

May 19, 2015

I hear that the Union “Unite” and its leader Len McCluskey have effectively taken over the Labour Party leadership contest. So whoever is elected leader will have little choice but to lead the party into a decade of oblivion.

But interestingly the qualifications of the contenders for leadership to represent the British “working class” are very revealing as to how the “working-class” can be defined today:

All white, all Oxbridge and all bar one even have the same haircut!

And I don’t suppose that any one of them has ever worked in a factory that actually manufactures wealth.

This from Guido:

Guido Labour party contenders

All of the Labour Party leadership candidates are scions of privilege:

Andy Burnham:
English, Fitzwilliam College, Cambridge.

Yvette Cooper:
PPE, Balliol College, Oxford.

Mary Creagh:
Languages, Pembroke College, Oxford.

Liz Kendall:
History, Queens’ College, Cambridge.

Doctor the Honourable Tristram Julian William Hunt:
History, Trinity College, Cambridge.

The British “working class” that I first came across, 50 years ago, as a green apprentice on the shop-floor of a factory in the Midlands, seems to have changed considerably – but not in the manner I would have expected. Maybe the people who actually work and make things no longer qualify as the “working-class”.

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Dangerous, brown cow shot dead after 3 hour chase in its bid for freedom

May 18, 2015

It’s true.

A dangerous, brown cow has been shot dead by police after it escaped from a field near Newcastle during a three-hour operation involving armed units and a helicopter.

Perhaps this will be a deterrent for other cows which try to escape from lawful slavery.

The Chronicle:

The cow which was later shot by police in Wallsend

The brown cow which was later shot by police in Wallsend – The Chronicle

Police shot dead an escaped cow following a massive operation involving armed officers and a helicopter. The beast was one of three to escape from a farm in Wallsend yesterday afternoon. Northumbria Police deployed marksmen, aerial support and, eyewitnesses said, 15 to 20 cars, closing roads in a bid to keep the animals off the busy A1058 Coast Road.

Witnesses said they believed three cows escaped from the Rising Sun Farm in Wallsend, though two were later recaptured. However the manager of the farm later told the Chronicle that the farm did not have any cows. 

Up to 20 police cars were reported at a field behind O’Hanlon Crescent where armed police were tracking one brown cow. Residents approached the animal, which one bystander claimed to be “distressed”, although others said it was not moving. Resident Barry Aitchison, 56, said people were watching police deal with the cow.

He claimed armed officers then asked to enter his house to shoot the beast from an upstairs window but that there was not enough room for them to do so. Instead, Mr Aitchison claims, they went to his neighbour’s property from where the cow was shot and killed at around 5.15pm.

 

 

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