Alan Rickman – RIP: From Obadiah Slope to Severus Snape

January 14, 2016

Alan Rickman has died at 69. RIP.

I had read the Barchester chronicles as a teenager but the whole thing came to life when Alan Rickman brought the Reverend Obadiah Slope to life in 1982. He became an immediate favourite for me and even now, more than 30 years later, the deliciously sneaky, slimy, smarminess he imbued Slope with is difficult to match.

His remarkable voice just one of his many assets. He could denote the depth of evil with a quirk of his eyebrow. Of course he went from strength to strength and Severus Snape was – in a sense a return to Slope. A richer, deeper, darker, more sinister Slope who had been to Dante’s inferno and returned. But you only have to watch Rickman as Slope to see where he brings Snape from. He even brought a depth to Col. Brandon which even Jane Austen had not imagined.

Alan Rickman enriched my life and I shall miss his performances.

But I shall always remember him as Obadiah Slope.

The Rise and Fall of Obadiah Slope


 

7 years on, 20 years older

January 14, 2016
Image Time magazine

Image Time magazine

Independent Scotland would have been in dire straits now

January 14, 2016

This morning Brent oil fell to less than $30 for the first time in 12 years.

During the Scotland independence campaign, the Scottish National Party based its projections and campaign on an oil price of $113 going forward and that would have provided revenues of about £7 billion per year.

SNP assumption - actual Brent oil price

At current prices the oil revenue accruing to the Scottish budget would be less than £0.1 billion compared to the planned for £7 billion per year. Back in July 2015, the expected revenue (at $45/barrel) was reduced to be about £0.16 billion per year (£800 million in 5 years). This is just the impact of price. Considering the reduction in market share and reduced volume, the revenue is likely to fall well short of that and not much more than £0.08 billion per year (£400 million over 5 years).

With actual oil revenues at just 10-15% of what was assumed, an independent Scotland would now be close to default and a declaration of bankruptcy. At least Scotland is a little more diverse and not quite as dependent on oil revenues as Norway is. But Norway is now dipping heavily into the huge oil fund it has stashed away over the good years. But even with the fund, the Norwegian kronor has lost about 30% of its value in the last year. Scotland, of course, has no such fund to fall back upon.

It seems highly unlikely that there will be any new independence referendum in Scotland until either

  1. the budget oil dependence is reduced drastically, or
  2. the oil price is over $60 per barrel.

 

GE to cut 6,500 jobs in Europe after Alstom acquisition

January 13, 2016

Back in September I predicted that GE would cut about 8,000 jobs (12%) after the Alstom acquisition. It looks like my analysis was not too far off as GE announced today that 6,500 jobs in the energy units would go just in Europe. Possibly the total number of jobs cut worldwide within 12 – 18 months will have to exceed 10,000 if GE is to come close to the cost reductions it has promised its shareholders.

YahooNews:

General Electric said Wednesday it plans to cut up to 6,500 jobs in Europe in the energy units it acquired from France’s Alstom last year.  

“The restructuring plan will touch several European countries and impact potentially 6,500 jobs out of 35,000,” a GE spokesman told AFP, confirming in part a report in the L’Est Republican newspaper saying up to 10,000 jobs could go worldwide.

The US industrial giant completed in November its acquisition of the power and grid businesses of Alstom for 9.7 billion euros ($10.5 billion) after making a number of pledges to win the support of the French government and fend off competition from rivals like German company Siemens.

One of those pledges was to create a net 1,000 high-skilled jobs in France, a promise that GE intends to honour, the spokesman said, despite 765 jobs due to go in France as part of this restructuring.

French government spokesman Stephane Le Foll said it would monitor the company’s implementation of its commitments. …….

… GE hasn’t provided any details about the job cuts in Europe, but L’Est Republican said 1,735 posts in Germany were slated to go, 1,219 in Switzerland, 467 in Spain and 250 in Italy.

It looks like Germany and Switzerland will bear the brunt of the cuts. I was expecting Baden in Switzerland to be hard hit but had perhaps underestimated the “French protectiveness” which disadvantages Germany. Still Siemens may be able to pick up some very good people in Germany and elsewhere (though the market is not exactly in a very expansive mood).

Obama’s goodbye elevates Trump

January 13, 2016

I didn’t stay up to watch Obama’s final State of the Union address live, but have just read the transcript and a few reports.

It was a goodbye speech. He came in hope and leaves still counselling hope. Though the country’s economic position is inevitably better now than it was in 2009 in the valley of the financial crash, he leaves, as I perceive, a country with a much higher level of fears than of hope.

I was a little surprised that he attacked Trump (though not by name) as much as he did. I suspect that being elevated to the level of being the subject of a State of the Union address, by a sitting President, can only benefit Trump. Especially as Trump was being written off as not worthy of any consideration, of any kind, just a few months ago. His playing down of the monsters of Al Qaida and ISIS, born of twisted interpretations of Islam, but nurtured largely by US policy (including Obama’s), also fuels Trump’s narrative.

Obama has not lived up to the expectations that his own rhetoric had engendered. “Yes, we can” has morphed to “Well, we could have”.

History may remember Obama, vaguely, for his Syrian misadventures. He may even be remembered as having attempted to introduce universal health care. History may also record that his tenure was characterised by an aversion to risk and some paralysis-by-analysis. But he will primarily be remembered as having been the first half-black President of the US and of having served for 8 years, but without special distinction.

A passing grade then for the speech, a C+ and maybe even a B-, but not much more.


 

RBS “Sell Everything” note

January 12, 2016

Update to a previous post:

The RBS report by Andrew Roberts advising clients to “Sell Everything” and which is attracting much morbid attention,

“The bears have killed Goldilocks

…..

The downside is crystallising.

Watch out.

Sell (mostly) everything.”

pdf file — RBS European-Rates-Weekly-08011


 

Thinking the unthinkable – oil at $10 per barrel

January 12, 2016

Huge stocks, declining consumption and reducing prices. Yet, Saudi Arabian oil production is running at close to maximum, Iraqi oil is increasing and Iranian oil will soon hit the market. Economic theories are being overturned and more than one economist is turning in his grave. (Economists are not, and never have been, very good at forecasts though they are all past-masters at generating theories based on back-casts).

Now, the experts are beginning to contemplate what has been unthinkable so far – oil price diving to $10/barrel.

ReutersCrude oil fell 3 percent on Tuesday, heading toward $30 per barrel and levels not seen in over a decade, with analysts scrambling to cut their price forecasts and traders betting on further declines.

Prices are down around 20 percent since the start of the year, dragged lower by soaring oversupply, China’s weakening economy and stock market turmoil, as well as the strong dollar, which makes it more expensive for countries using other currencies to buy oil.

…… On the supply side, Iraq, which has become the second biggest producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), plans to export a record of around 3.63 million barrels per day (bpd) from its southern oil terminals in February, trade sources said on Tuesday, citing a preliminary loading program, up 8 percent from this month.

“The near-term outlook for the oil market is bleak. OPEC is producing flat-out into a market that is oversupplied by over 1 million barrels per day; already decelerating demand growth could further decay with slowing economic activity; and OECD inventories that are already at record levels are likely to expand through at least the middle of the year,” Jefferies said on Tuesday.

Adjusting to the price rout, analysts have been shifting their price outlooks downward, with Barclays, Macquarie, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Standard Chartered and Societe Generale all cutting their 2016 oil forecasts this week.

StanChart took the most bearish view, saying prices could drop as low as $10 a barrel.

“We think prices could fall as low as $10/bbl before most of the money managers in the market conceded that matters had gone too far,” the bank said.

crude oil price 20160112

In my simplistic view, a reducing price for something I consume is fundamentally a “good thing”. But I can’t help feeling that this price drop is not a sound, sustainable reduction based on cost reduction. It is manipulated and artificial and is due to a misguided Saudi strategy against shale oil, Russian oil and Iran. And it is going horribly wrong.

“Sell everything” – stocks to fall by 20% and oil to $16 – says RBS

January 12, 2016

The Royal Bank of Scotland is predicting a “cataclysmic” 2016 and advising its clients to “sell everything” except high quality bonds. Stocks will collapse by 10 – 20% and oil will drop to $16/barrel. As pessimism goes this is not just “Doom” it is “Painful and Imminent Doom”. The RBS team are clearly expecting an increasing panic feeding on itself, since there are “few exit doors”. Certainly their dire scenario will itself contribute to the darkening “mood”.

For the modest investor there are few “good” options. The task for them is not so much looking for upsides but one of limiting the downsides. It is probably best to just rely on the wisdom of the Godfather. Convert to cash and “go to the mattresses”.

Keep Calm Sell Everything - Telegraph

Keep Calm Sell Everything – Telegraph

The Telegraph:

RBS has advised clients to brace for a “cataclysmic year” and a global deflationary crisis, warning that major stock markets could fall by a fifth and oil may plummet to $16 a barrel.

The bank’s credit team said markets are flashing stress alerts akin to the turbulent months before the Lehman crisis in 2008. “Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small,” it said in a client note.

Andrew Roberts, the bank’s credit chief, said that global trade and loans are contracting, a nasty cocktail for corporate balance sheets and equity earnings. This is particularly ominous given that global debt ratios have reached record highs.

“China has set off a major correction and it is going to snowball. Equities and credit have become very dangerous, and we have hardly even begun to retrace the ‘Goldlocks love-in’ of the last two years,” he said.

Mr Roberts expects Wall Street and European stocks to fall by 10pc to 20pc, with even an deeper slide for the FTSE 100 given its high weighting of energy and commodities companies. “London is vulnerable to a negative shock. All these people who are ‘long’ oil and mining companies thinking that the dividends are safe are going to discover that they’re not at all safe,” he said. ….

Brent oil prices will continue to slide after breaking through a key technical level at $34.40, RBS claimed, with a “bear flag” and “Fibonacci” signals pointing to a floor of $16, a level last seen after the East Asia crisis in 1999. The bank said a paralysed OPEC seems incapable of responding to a deepening slowdown in Asia, now the swing region for global oil demand.

Morgan Stanley has also slashed its oil forecast, warning that Brent could fall to $20 if the US dollar keeps rising. It argued that oil is intensely leveraged to any move in the dollar and is now playing second fiddle to currency effects.

RBS forecast that yields on 10-year German Bunds would fall time to an all-time low of 0.16pc in a flight to safety, and may break zero as deflationary forces tighten their grip. The European Central Bank’s policy rate will fall to -0.7pc.

US Treasuries will fall to rock-bottom levels in sympathy, hammering hedge funds that have shorted US bonds in a very crowded “reflation trade”. ………..

Business Insider has the RBS bullet list of concerns which are giving their bleak view of 2016:

My bullet point themes into 2016 are (remain):

  1. Bearish China
  2. Bearish global commodities (hards, softs, fluids). And more specifically . . .
  3. Bearish oil (target $26, then clear risk of $16)
  4. CBs (mostly everywhere) will ease more
  5. The world has far too much debt to be able to grow well – global output
  6. gap widens
  7. Emerging market majors (outside India & Eastern Europe) all remain sells
  8. Automation on its way to destroy 30-50% of all jobs in developed world
  9. Currency war / mercantilism

 And my new bullet point themes:

  1. Global disinflation risks turning into global deflation in 2016
  2. Everyone thinks ‘goldilocks’. We thought this strongly for >2 years (on our liquidity theme) but now worry about equities/credit, both huge, multi-year, well held positions. Negative returns in 2016 are probable, though without a recession they should be manageable, think -10-20%, rather than a rout
  3. If we see weaker ‘risk on’ products, the last safe ‘high yielder’ is the EMU periphery. Our new 0.75% 10y BTP target could prove too high a yield
  4. Risks to 0.16% new 10y bund target are on the downside, not upside
  5. Main risk comes from oil. A plunge sub $20 would aid consumption

It could be a bad year for the small investor.

The Cologne syndrome in Stockholm as police and media cover-up sexual harassment by “asylum seeker”, youth gangs

January 11, 2016

It is a “breaking news” in Dagens Nyheter today that it is commonplace for gangs of youths to sexually harass and molest young girls at the annual “We are Stockholm” festival. It showed up clearly in 2014 and again last year. The “scoop” in DN is that the police have knowingly, and regularly, played such matters down. But what DN does not spend too much time on is that journalists (including DN journalists) were generally informed that sexual harassment by “asylum seekers” was taking place, but they and their editors chose also to play it down. What DN does not reveal is the depth to which Swedish media are blind, devout followers of the religion of “political correctness”. Normally they play up even the most tenuous cases of purported or alleged sexism. But they have also been the most ardent supporters of multicultural (as opposed to multiethnic) societies.

Thus, they automatically play up anything that follows a “feminist” line except when the perpetrators are immigrants or immigrant gangs of, usually, supposedly Muslim youth. Even in today’s stories in all the newspapers about DN’s “scoop”, none of the mainstream media refers to the ethnicity or the religion of the youth gangs. From social media, even after discounting all the idiotic blather from the usual suspects (mainly right-wing, white-supremacist, often Sweden Democrat rabble), it is fairly clear that most – if not all – of the harassment in Stockholm was by gangs of young, male, “asylum seekers”, mainly from Afghanistan. There are those who claim it is not relevant and should not be reported, but I think that it is highly relevant that the perpetrators were nearly all culturally Muslim (and culture and religion are inextricably intertwined here). Their ethnicity is, I suspect, of less importance than their culture.

It is Cologne all over again. First the police play down such events. The media acquiesce in keeping things quiet since they don’t want to disturb the multicultural narrative. Then social media pressure leads to the news “breaking” in the msm – even though they are themselves heavily complicit in the cover-up in the first place.

We are Sthlm-festivalen i Kungsträdgården 2015.

We are Sthlm-festival in Kungsträdgården 2015. Photo: Alexander Tillheden/Stockholms stad (via DN)

Dagens NyheterFor two years, youth gangs have been molesting girls at Europe’s largest youth festival “We Are Stockholm”. The official police version is that conduct at the festival was “quiet” – but the DN’s investigation shows that the internal alarm reports were silenced.

The National Police Commissioner Dan Eliasson promised to investigate the cover-up.

DN has seen the daily internal memo during “We are Sthlm” that was sent to police chiefs and the Stockholm police media center. The first reports of sex crimes against female visitors came early on. “The problem with young men rubbing themselves up against young girls in the audience returned as in previous years,” it says in a memo from the first day of August last year. The problems arose as soon as the concert started.

But what DN does not mention is that they too knew about the harassment in August last year.

Expressen: Dagens Nyheter’s article about the police cover-up of sexual molestation during the music festival “We are Sthlm” has also led to a media debate.
The site, Nyheter Idag, which has connections to the Sweden Democrats has accused the newspaper of itself trying to cover-up the news. …… They claimed in an article published on Sunday that DN engaged in a cover-up and that the newspaper should have known about the molestation at the festival last summer. Information about the abuse had been received by one of DN’s journalists.

On Swedish television this morning, the journalists all pretend they knew nothing at the time and are happy to let the police take the blame. They still will not say that the gangs were mainly “asylum seekers”.

Nyheter Idag writes:

During a single night police and security guards had to intervene against around 90 younger males, but even adult men took part in the abuse, says an eye witness to Nyheter Idag. The eye witness has professional experience from working at the Stockholm Police Department as a psychologist. 

The psychologist who knew of what had happened in Kungsträdgården contacted journalist Hanne Kjöller at Dagens Nyheter, by, among other things, e-mail on August 17. The psychologist says he specifically turned to Kjöller because he knew that she had previously written about controversial topics.

“She was very interested and listened until I told her that all the boys and men that were apprehended were young asylum seekers (“unaccompanied” is the terminology used by Swedish authorities) from Afghanistan and Syria. I sensed that she changed the tone (of her voice). But she also said that she would contact the police”, he tells Nyheter Idag.

Kjöller got the phone number to one of the police officers who were on duty during the event in Kungsträdgården and could provide a recollection of the events. Nyheter Idag has talked with the police officer who Kjöller talked to in August, and he was eager to tell Dagens Nyheter about the massive cases of sexual assault against young girls in central Stockholm.

“She sent a text message to me once, early on, where she wrote that she was looking for me, she wanted to talk. After that, I tried to get in touch with her, but that was when things started to get awry. She answered sometimes, said she would get back to me. But it never amounted to anything. She was interested in it for half day or a day, then she wasn’t anymore”.

The officer explains that he worked for several evenings during this week in Kungsträdgården square. He tells of how he and his colleagues had to apprehend a large number of young men who sexually assaulted girls, in large part unaccompanied refugees from Afghanistan.

The fear of being labelled “racist” has led to the ridiculous consequence that “race” and “culture” have been equated. Multiculturalism has been made into a religion. Unacceptable cultural mores have been overlooked and excused – and even encouraged – just so as to avoid being called “racist”. I am more than ever convinced of my thesis that Europe’s future is inevitably multiethnic – but it is not multicultural. The integration of newcomers has to start with cultural integration not with cultural separation. And that starts with language.


Related:

A “society” – to be a society – can be multi-ethnic but not multicultural

The future of Europe is multiethnic but not multicultural


 

 

“Democrats for Trump” is not just fantasy

January 10, 2016

The conventional wisdom is that if Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, Hillary Clinton will wipe the floor with him. But a few weeks ago I thought that, like the Democrats for Reagan, we might see a similar phenomenon of Democrats for Trump.   I saw immigration in the US and the consequent fears of many white Democrats together with the dynamics between different minority groups as being the possible driver for generating these cross-over voters. I wrote then:

Latinos are incensed at Trump’s comments about immigration, but quite like his hard line about Islamic terrorists. East European immigrants are also attracted to this hard line about both Mexican illegal immigrants and Muslim terrorists. Asian immigrants can be split generally into two groups; Muslims mainly from Islamic countries and non-Muslims. Many of the non-Muslims feel threatened by the Islamisation of their communities and the insidious, creeping encroachment of – and perceived silent surrender to – Sharia Law. A large portion of the Asian communities are not comfortable with the influx of illegal, Latino immigrants. ………. Even the black Muslims feel under threat from all the “new Muslims”, since they come quite low down in the hierarchy of “true Muslims”. Normally the bulk of the immigrant population in the US would be Democratic supporters, but Trump is tapping into some of their greatest fears of other immigrant groups. There is also – I think – a large section of the white, middle-class Democratic support which is inhibited from expressing its fears of immigration and Islamisation and are suddenly quite glad that these fears are being expressed by somebody – even if it is only a Trump.

A new survey suggests that such a scenario is not entirely fantasy and there may well be substance to the existence of a “Democrats for Trump”. The poll indicates that 20% of Democratic voters could cross-over to Trump. If my memory serves many of the Democrats for Reagan were “secret” and never actually admitted that they would vote for Reagan. I suspect that the “secret” Democrats for Trump could be a larger proportion even than for Reagan. And I suspect that Trump is not as unacceptable for well-established minority groups as the media assume.

US News:

So if Donald Trump proved the political universe wrong and won the Republican presidential nomination, he would be creamed by Hillary Clinton, correct? A new survey of likely voters might at least raise momentary dyspepsia for Democrats since it suggests why it wouldn’t be a cakewalk.

The survey by Washington-based Mercury Analytics is a combination online questionnaire and “dial-test” of Trump’s first big campaign ad among 916 self-proclaimed “likely voters” ……. Nearly 20 percent of likely Democratic voters say they’d cross sides and vote for Trump, while a small number, or 14 percent, of Republicans claim they’d vote for Clinton. When those groups were further broken down, a far higher percentage of the crossover Democrats contend they are “100 percent sure” of switching than the Republicans.

Tied in a statistical dead heat: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. REUTERS combo

That Trump is not quite the pariah with Democratic voters as the media seek to portray is also shown by this Reuters/IPSOS poll which has Trump matching Clinton if they were to be pitted against each other

ReutersIn a hypothetical head-to-head race, the real-estate tycoon and TV personality would be supported by 39 percent of likely general election voters, compared with 40 percent for Clinton, according to the latest 5-day average from Friday’s Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll.

The driving issue is likely to be immigration all through 2016. The recent New Years eve rampage of male, “refugee”, Muslim youths in Germany, the politically correct silence by the media about it until forced, and similar behaviour in Finland and the UK and in Scandinavia, only play into Trump’s narrative. Every atrocity committed by ISIS begs the question as to why the male, unaccompanied youths who are seeking refugee status in Europe or North America, are not fighting against ISIS in their own countries?