Maybe immigration increases because of the anti-immigration parties

October 28, 2015

It is normally thought the rise in support for the Sweden Democrats (a right-wing, one-issue, anti-immigration party) is a consequence of high immigration rates.

I am not so sure about cause and effect here.

You can just as well argue that the increase of SD support causes a reaction such that the very thing they oppose is enhanced.

What is certainly true is that immigration has increased sharply ever since the SD came into parliament in 2010 with 20 seats. In 2014 they won 49 seats and became the 3rd largest party in parliament. They have been pushing their single-issue for the last 26 years but have only achieved the opposite of what they set out to do. Even in the UK the rise of UKIP coincides with an increase of immigration.

So, paradoxically, it may be that immigration increases because of the backlash reaction to the anti-immigrant parties themselves.

Sweden Democrat support and immigration numbers

Sweden Democrat support and immigration numbers

French Mathematical Society “Battle against global warming an absurd,costly and pointless crusade”

October 27, 2015

The French Society of Mathematical Calculation (Société de Calcul Mathématique SA) has released a white paper entitled

The battle against global warming: an absurd,costly and pointless crusade

French Mathematical Calculation Society White Paper

The crusade is absurd

There is not a single fact, figure or observation that leads us to conclude that the world‘s climate is in any way disturbed‘. It is variable, as it has always been, but rather less so now than during certain periods or geological eras. Modern methods are far from being able to accurately measure the planet‘s global temperature even today, so measurements made 50 or 100 years ago are even less reliable. Concentrations of CO2 vary, as they always have done; the figures that are being released are biased and dishonest. Rising sea levels are a normal phenomenon linked to upthrust buoyancy; they are nothing to do with so-called global warming. As for extreme weather events – they are no more frequent now than they have been in the past. We ourselves have processed the raw data on hurricanes. We are being told that ‗a temperature increase of more than 2ºC by comparison with the beginning of the industrial age would have dramatic consequences, and absolutely has to be prevented‘. When they hear this, people worry: hasn‘t there already been an increase of 1.9ºC? Actually, no: the figures for the period 1995-2015 show an upward trend of about 1ºC every hundred years! Of course, these figures, which contradict public policies, are never brought to public attention. 

…..

We are not in a position to question the composition of the IPPC, or its legitimacy and policy decisions, and we shall not do so. However, as mathematicians, we have every right to respond to the following question: if the IPPC‘s work were to be submitted for publication in a reputable scientific journal, would it be accepted? This decision is the task of a referee, in a procedure that is common practice in the sciences. The answer is very simple: no sensible, high-quality journal would publish the IPPC‘s work. The IPPC‘s conclusions go against observed facts; the figures used are deliberately chosen to support its conclusions (with no regard for the most basic scientific honesty), and the natural variability of phenomena is passed over without comment. The IPPC‘s report fails to respect the fundamental rules of scientific research and could not be published in any review with a reading panel.

Of course these mathematicians could not possibly be part of the great 97%.

The 97% reminds me of how we used to present “market share” when we were looking to increase the marketing budget. Whenever necessary we could always show that we had 100% market share for the machines we had sold, or that we had virtually zero market share of a market defined sufficiently wide. And any number in-between was a simple matter of defining the market.

Thus, 97% of those who believe in man-made global warming, believe in man-made global warming

Female Bishop of Gloucester wants to neuter God

October 27, 2015

Since God is made in the image that man (or woman) decides, I suppose it does not really matter.

But there is something quite delicious about the female Bishop of Gloucester wanting, not to make God female, but to neuter Him/She/It. Now if God did have a gender, He (and any Goddesses He might have) could be a little upset.

At least as a Him or a Her, 50% of the world could be in His or Her image. But as an It, there would be very few. I suppose all references by Jesus to his Father in the Bible could be easily edited to be about his genderless Parent.

The Independent:

The Church of England should stop using male pronouns when referring to God in order to counter the erroneous belief that the Almighty has a gender, the first female bishop to sit in the House of Lords has said.

The Bishop of Gloucester, the Rt Rev Rachel Treweek, the Church’s most senior clergywoman, was being introduced to the Upper House today as one of Parliament’s 26 Lords Spiritual. 

Speaking before the event, the bishop raised the issue of God’s gender, saying: “We’re told that God created human beings in God’s likeness… If I am made in the image of God, then God is not to be seen as male. God is God.”

Instead of using either “He” or “She” to describe God, Bishop Treweek said she  prefers simply to use the word “God”. 

Of course the Bishop of Gloucester was only trying to establish a modicum of feminist credentials, though she stopped short of claiming that gender was obsolete:

“If it means I believe that men and women were created by God as equal but different, then yes I’m a feminist. But if it means women wanting to be men – and sometimes that’s a slight feeling of being loud and domineering – then I would reject that.”

Hinduism took care of this by having available a half-male, half-female God, Ardhanarisvara.

Whenever the priests of some religion determine the nature of their God, it’s a little bit like a bunch of manufactured robots deciding, among themselves, that they were not man-made but woman-made. And it becomes really stupid (or intelligent depending upon your point of view) when robots who think they are man-made go to war against robots who think they are woman-made.

Hindus were eating beef for much longer than they haven’t been

October 26, 2015

For Hinduism, the cow is not an object of worship (it attracts no gods or goddesses) but it has become both a symbol (of what exactly?) and a taboo. In any urban environment, cows in India provide ready examples of how ill-fed and ill-nurtured they actually are. My grandmother was a strict – but quite normal – vegetarian (no fish, meat or eggs). Unlike the Jains she had no problem with dairy products or root vegetables or honey. I once tried to convince her that beef, coming from complete herbivores, was “more fundamentally vegetarian” than poultry, who were known to relish worms and insects when they were available. She was not amused. (She was not amused either by my arguments that whiskey was strictly vegetarian).

In the current political circus in India where all the ardent, self-styled Hindu fanatics (BJP, Shiv Sena, RSS, VHP ….) are castigating the eating of beef and all beef-eaters, they are attempting to rewrite a history which they conveniently forget. They have gone so far – and have fallen as low – as to justify the lynching of a Muslim for slaughtering and eating a cow.

Eating of beef only began to be discouraged when the Brahmins became significant land-owners and cattle-owners from about 500- 600 CE. The “general” ban on the killing of cows and the eating of beef by Hindus only goes back to about 1200 CE. Taking the roots of Hinduism as having first germinated at the time of the Indus-Saraswati Valley Civilisation, that would have been about 3,000 BCE (5,000 years ago). Which of course means that Hindus were eating beef for some 4,200 years while they have abstained from the practice for only about 800 years. As the practice of eating beef declined, cow-slaughter for religious sacrifice was increasingly restricted to very special and rare events. Inevitably the resulting beef was insufficient for all the multitude and so was reserved for just the most important Brahmins present. So the Brahmins were probably the last of the castes to give up the practice. Others couldn’t afford it anyway.

Holy Cow

Back in 2001, Professor D N Jha published “the best-kept secret in Indian history — the beef-eating habits of ancient Hindus, Buddhists and even early Jains” in his book Holy Cow—Beef in Indian Dietary Conditions. His scholarly work is probably the most definitive work ever on the subject. It is not available in India of course. A civil court in Hyderabad banned it. Some Government Ministers (BJP, who else) demanded ritualised book burnings. He was threatened and had to have police protection for a while. It was reprinted as the The Myth of the Holy Cow and can still be obtained – with some difficulty – outside India.

There were a few favourable reviews in 2001 and 2002 but generally his book was ignored by academia and kept hidden for fear of “hurting Hindu sensibilities” or of other reprisals. The Indian academic establishment is not known for its political bravery. Their views are incredibly supple and bend with whichever political wind is blowing strongest. Many of the reviews are still available on the internet but many from that time have been removed. Jha retired in 2007. Jha was a socialist and that has also been used as a stick to criticise his views on communalism and the BJP’s saffronisation program. But it seems to me that his arguments are generally correct on the subject of beef in Hindu history  As Outlook reported in 2002

“Old and tired out” Jha may call himself, but there’s something irrepressible about him. Bans and fatwas haven’t stopped him from beginning work on his next book. “It will be called,” says Jha with deadpan face, “Adulterous Gods and their Inebriated Women”.

A few quotes from his final chapter:

“Although Manu (200Bc – 200 AD) extols the virtue of ahimsa, he provides a list of creatures whose flesh was edible. He exempts the camel from being killed for food but does not grant this privilege to the cow.”

“The Mahabharata also makes a laudatory reference to the king Rantideva in whose kitchen, 2000 cows were butchered each day …. being distributed among the brahmanas.”

“Sita assures the Yamuna .. that she would worship the river with a 1000 cows and a hundred jars of wine when Rama accomplishes his vow.”

Reviews:

  1. The Hindu – Beef eating: strangulating history
  2. Outlook – A Brahmin’s Cow Tales
  3. The Guardian – One man’s beef …..

A few days ago the Wall Street Journal conducted an email interview with DN Jha.

The killing of an Indian Muslim man allegedly lynched last month by a Hindu mob who suspected him of having slaughtered and eaten a cow, has refocused attention on attitudes toward the animal in a constitutionally secular country with a Hindu majority.

Historian Dwijendra Narayan Jha, who has drawn fire from Hindu nationalists for writing that Hinduism hasn’t always regarded beef-eating as an offense, said the recent cow-related violence was part of a “dangerous trend of increasing intolerance  in the country.”

The former Delhi University professor, who is now retired, says he received death threats after the publication of a 2001 book about beef in Indians’ dietary traditions and based on ancient texts, “The Myth of the Holy Cow. 

In an email interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Jha discussed the emergence of the cow as a sacred animal and the politics of meat among conservative Hindus.

Mr. Jha: It was only in the early Christian centuries, around the middle of the first millennium A.D., that the Brahminical texts began to discourage and even disapprove of cow slaughter.

This change of attitude can be understood against the general background of the transformation of the rural society in post -Mauryan centuries, especially from around the middle of the first millennium A.D., which ushered in a phase of unprecedented agrarian expansion.  Brahmins emerged as  a feudal land owning class and, unlike in the earlier period, became more and more involved in agriculture. This led to the recognition of the pivotal role of animal husbandry, and the disapproval of killing of cattle by the Brahmins. All this is encapsulated in the concept of kali age in which many age-old  practices came to be  forbidden.  

WSJ: Is eating cow meat incompatible with Hinduism today?

Mr. Jha: There is substantial evidence in ancient Indian texts which testify to the prevalence of the practice of beef eating for many centuries in ancient India. The practice gradually disappeared in those regions, which are now called the “cow belt.” But it has continued in many other parts of the country, especially Kerala and north eastern states. In Kerala, 72 communities eat beef and many of them are Hindus. So, I would not say that beef eating is incompatible with Hinduism. But, at the same time there are many Hindus who would not even touch beef or even meat or fish.

What may be unacceptable to one set of Hindus may be acceptable to another. …..

The discouragement of cow-slaughter and the eating of beef was essentially an economic necessity of the time and had little to do with religion then. It came in when the value of a living cow far exceeded the value of a dead one, and when the wealth of the Brahmins was counted in cows. What easier way of maintaining their wealth than by introducing a regulation beneficial to themselves and justifying it on the grounds of the religion that they were the custodians of?

Poland demonstrates that the EU is not one country – yet

October 26, 2015

Poland has moved quite decisively to the right and towards an anti-EU stance. It demonstrates once again that the dreams of a New Holy Roman Empire in the form a single European nation state are more than a little premature. A single state can only follow a levelisation of living standards and a natural homogenisation of fiscal and monetary policies. Brussels has to learn (and so do Hollande and Merkel) that a single EU state cannot be imposed by dictat or by fiscal and monetary coercion. The Euro has to be a consequence of levelisation. As a tool for levelisation, it is a very blunt and ineffective instrument.

Colours of the EU

Colours of the EU

BBC:

Poland’s conservative opposition Law and Justice party has won parliamentary elections. Exit polls suggest it has enough seats to govern alone, with an anticipated 39% of the vote.

Its eurosceptic leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski has claimed victory, and the outgoing Prime Minister, Ewa Kopacz of the centrist Civic Platform party, has admitted defeat.

Law and Justice has strong support in Poland’s rural areas. If the numbers suggested by the exit poll are confirmed, it will be the first time since democracy was restored in Poland in 1989 that a single party has won enough seats to govern alone, the BBC’s Adam Easton in Warsaw says.

Hurricane Patricia – 200 became 165, potentially catastrophic became no significant damage – why the hype?

October 24, 2015

It was the strongest storm ever recorded. It was the most dangerous storm in history. Such strong winds had never been recorded before. It was going to cause catastrophic damage. The banner headlines were spread in the mainstream media across the globe.

But Patricia has fizzled to a Category 2 storm just a few hours after landfall. No serious damage so far.

Was there an agenda to the world-wide hype? Remember the hype about Hurricane Joaquin just a few weeks ago. It didn’t even make landfall and in the course of just a few days the forecast course changed by some 6,000km. Remember Typhoon Haiyan. Strongest ever winds of 200 MPH  were predicted hours before landfall. By the time it made landfall it was a tropical storm. Is there a pattern to the hype?

Hurricane Joaquin post mortem -- tracks from RealScience

Hurricane Joaquin post mortem — tracks from RealScience

This morning I learn that Hurricane Patricia has made landfall and is weakening. The expected 200mph winds had become less than 165mph by landfall. From Category 5 it has been downgraded to Category 2. So far minor landslides and fallen trees have been reported. How come they were “destructive winds and rain” but “heavy damage was avoided”? Destructive without damage? We used to call that non-destructive.

BBC: 

The storm touched down in western Mexico, bringing destructive winds and rain, but heavy damage appears to have been avoided.

The US National Hurricane Center said the hurricane hit as a Category Five storm – the highest classification.

It said “life-threatening flash floods and mudslides” were now likely.

The states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan, and Guerrero are in particular danger as the storm moves inland, the centre says.

Four hours after making landfall as the strongest recorded hurricane, Patricia weakened to a Category Four, and is likely to be downgraded to a tropical storm in the coming hours as it passes over mountainous regions.

“The first reports confirm that the damage has been smaller than that corresponding to a hurricane of this magnitude,” Mexico’s president, Enrique Pena Nieto, said in a televised address.

Mexican federal police said only “minor landslides and fallen trees” had so far been reported in Colima.

I don’t suppose that the hype has anything to do with the approaching Paris conference on wealth distribution (ostensibly about global warming)?

I note that Mexico is expecting to be a beneficiary from the Paris largesse.

A shadow of a selfie

October 23, 2015

Autumn sun and long shadows.

Shadow of a selfie

Shadow of a selfie

Nikon 2015 Photomicrography winners

October 23, 2015

The winner of the Nikon Small World photomicrography competition is the Eye of a honey bee (Apis mellifera) covered in dandelion pollen (120x) by Australian Ralph Claus Grimm:

Ralph Claus Grimm – Eye of a honey bee

My favourite among the fascinating entries is of a Clam shrimp (Cyzicus mexicanus), live specimen (25x) by Ian Gardiner of Canada which won 10th place.

Ian Gardiner live specimen of a clam shrimp

All the entries can be seen at the Nikon Small World site.

Modern Hinduism in action – equates low caste children with dogs

October 22, 2015

The compassionate face of modern Hinduism.

V K Singh.jpg

Gen VK Singh in 2012 – image Wikipedia

General VK Singh was a commando and former Chief of the Indian Army Staff and took the then government to court in 2012 when he retired over a row about what his true age was. He then joined the BJP, was elected to Parliament, was the junior Minister in the Ministry of External Affairs and is now a Minister without any real portfolio but is called the Minister of Statistics and Programme Implementation – whatever that may mean. But apparently he equates children of the “untouchable” castes to dogs.

(“Dalit” is the name given to those communities classified as “untouchable” according to the Hindu caste system).

NDTV: The government cannot be held responsible for the murder of the two Dalit children in Haryana, Union Minister VK Singh said today. And in an afterthought that is expected to land him in controversy, added, “If someone throws stones at a dog, the government is not responsible”.

Asked if the government has failed in view of the Monday’s killings on the sidelines of an event in Ghaziabad, Mr Singh said, “Don’t connect the government with it. It was a feud between two families, the matter is under inquiry.”

The administration failed there, the minister said, then added the controversial comment. Haryana is ruled by the BJP, Mr Singh’s party. The children — two-and-a-half year old Vaibhav and 11-month-old Divya – had died after their house was set on fire, allegedly by members of an upper caste community at a village in Haryana near Delhi, on Monday. Their father — who sustained burn injuries to save them — said petrol was poured through the window and the house was set on fire.

While Haryana Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar put off his (visit) to Sonped yesterday in view of the escalating protests in the area, Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi had met the family and launched a scathing attack on Mr Khattar, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and their party, the BJP. ………

Under attack from the opposition, the Haryana government has asked for an investigation by the Central Bureau of Investigation into the deaths. Seven people have been arrested in the case so far.

The view that fanatic Hindus (RSS, VHP,  ….) have of people of lower castes and people of different religions is not so different to how ISIS views infidels.

NASA alarmists predict 99.9% probability of LA earthquake in 3 years, but US Geological Survey is sharply critical

October 22, 2015

A new NASA paper published in Earth and Space Science claims that “For a M ≥ 5 earthquake within a circle of radius 100 km, and over the 3 years following 1 April 2015, the probability is 99.9%”.

But the US Geological Survey was very quick to criticise the methods and the conclusion.

NASA was once an unimpeachable science source. No longer. That brand value has been badly impaired. There is far too much exaggeration and hype. There are peripheral sections of NASA which seem to revel in alarmism. This is especially visible when they pontificate about areas which are not their core business. Just because the radar or aerial or space based images may originate with NASA, some think it gives them a pondus on subjects they are not expert on. Perhaps it is also the chase for publications and notoriety from some sections of the organisation who feel their work does not get enough publicity. NASA statements about potential natural disasters always seem to be highly exaggerated for effect. This includes storms, hurricanes, climate change and now earthquakes. Even when they do have something to say they tend to overdo the hype (as with the recent press conference about Martian water). The alarmist theme is encroaching even into the core areas. Have you noticed how many recent asteroids have been highlighted as “not being any danger”? Reverse psychology being applied by NASA perhaps, to inject some alarm into situations which have not the slightest danger and which otherwise would have passed unremarked?

Naturally NASA issued a press release. However, even the NASA PR machine had not the cheek themselves to highlight the main conclusion which is in the discussion section (Section 5) of the paper:

The calculated probability for a M ≥ 6 earthquake within a circle of radius 100 km, and over the 3 years following 1 April 2015, is 35%. For a M ≥ 5 earthquake within a circle of radius 100 km, and over the 3 years following 1 April 2015, the probability is 99.9%.

A 99.9% chance is as close to certainty in a prediction that one could ever get. But the US Geological Survey was not amused by these upstart alarmists. It took to Facebook and was sharply critical and has been quick to publish a severe put-down.

USGS Statement on JPL La Habra Study in the news:

This paper claims a 99.9% probability of an earthquake of magnitude 5 or greater occurring in the next 3 years within a large area of Southern California without providing a clear description of how these numbers were derived. The area—a 100 km radius circle centered on the city of La Habra—is a known seismically active area. For this same area, the community developed and accepted model of earthquake occurrence, “UCERF3”, which is the basis of the USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps, gives a 3-year probability of 85%. In other words, the accepted random chance of a M5 or greater in this area in 3 years is 85%, independent of the analysis in this paper.

While the earthquake forecast presented in this paper has been published in the online journal Earth and Space Sciences, it has not yet been examined by the long-established committees that evaluate earthquake forecasts and predictions made by scientists. These committees, the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, which advises the California Office of Emergency Services, and the National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, which advises the U.S. Geological Survey, were established to provide expert, independent assessment of earthquake predictions.

The earthquake rate implied by the 99.9% probability is significantly higher than observed at any time previously in Southern California, and the lack of details on the method of analysis makes a critical assessment of this approach very difficult. Therefore, the USGS does not consider the analysis presented in this paper a reason to change our assessment of the hazard.

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2015/3009/

“Therefore, the USGS does not consider the analysis presented in this paper a reason to change our assessment of the hazard” effectively says that the USGS does not think this paper has any significance. 

One wonders – from the USGS comments – how this paper got to be published. The peer review applied for this paper seems a little suspect. None of the “peers” came from the USGS apparently. Was it just a “pal” review? In recent times, in my perception, many of the peripheral NASA sections publish papers with little substance just to say “Look how good we are“. I suppose they are deemed necessary to maintain department budgets.

Outside of its own core areas, NASA is strongly in the alarmist camp. They probably thinks it helps funding. But perhaps NASA needs to take stock of the damage being done to their brand every time they choose the alarmist route.

I think I will go with the US Geological Survey in this case and their more nuanced probabilities over 30 years.

US Geological Survey 30 year Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast