Homo Out of Africa 1.9 million years ago
Homo Out of Africa
The “original” Out of Africa event
July 6, 2014A “right” to be remembered
July 6, 2014We shall all die and we shall all be forgotten. And if our works have not been captured on tablets of stone or our images as cave paintings then the “forgetting” will not take very long. While stone tablets and cave walls have a life of tens of thousands of years, the life of parchment is at most about two thousand and paper is unlikely to survive more than a thousand years. Media for the storage of electronic data can live for probably no more than a few decades – at best. And with the internet the medium is getting ever more ephemeral.
History does not change. But the historical record depends on who recorded it and with how much bias, on what medium and who rewrote it before the medium died. Data corruption and plagiarism were not of great concern in the days of stone tablets. The ease of corrupting data has increased with the ease of recording data and the lifetime of the recording media have decreased.
David Mitchell writes in The Observer:
These days thousands are campaigning for “the right to die” and “the right to be forgotten“ as if they’re genuinely worried it might otherwise not happen.
What will our descendants think of it? “Bloody hell, those guys were a bit glass-half-empty! What else did they want? ‘The right to self-harm’? ‘The right to feel humiliated’? ‘The right to decompose’? ‘The right to have someone you hate turn up at your funeral and claim you liked them’?” Historians of future ages could be forgiven for concluding that this whole era was clinically depressed. ………
The only thing I ever liked about the internet was that I thought it would help historians – that, assuming there wasn’t an all-data-destroying power surge, millions of searchable written sources would be left to posterity. Without that, it’s all just grooming and bookshop closures and mind-blowing opportunities for fraud. So this news that Ozymandias can apply to have records of his works suppressed in case they invoke too much despair in the Mighty – ie prospective employers – is a real blow.
You may say that Ozymandias is dead – or rather fictional but, even in the fiction, dead – so couldn’t apply to have his virtual trunkless legs buried in the unsearchable sand (I will retain control of this metaphor). The internet can still be accurate about the deceased, you might think. I don’t. They’re the very people you can say anything about, true or false, because they cannot be libelled. Only the living have legal recourse to ensure accuracy, but why would anyone bother to get things corrected if they can effectively just delete anything written about them that they’re not keen on?
People’s right to suppress unpleasant lies which are publicly told is being extended to unpleasant truths – until they die when it’s suddenly open season on slander. The internet will become constructed entirely of two different sorts of untruth: contemporaneous unalloyed praise and posthumous defamatory hearsay.
We are 7 billion today and all the humans who ever lived (as Anatomically Modern Humans since about 200,000 years ago) probably number around 110 billion. Being forgotten is is the norm.
I want the “right” to be remembered – but not for those things I don’t want to be remembered for! But I will be long gone, long forgotten, and will have little interest in any “rights” by then.
In transit with the Indian monsoon
July 3, 2014I have been traveling this week on an assignment .
Today the monsoon rains reached Delhi – about 7 days later than the long term average but not an unusual occurrence. A quarter of the 4 month monsoon season is over and so far there is a heavy shortfall in the rainfall received.
Rainfall in July will be crucial in determining whether this monsoon will turn out to be a “bad” one or just somewhat “low”. The risk of this year being a super El Niño year has reduced and with it the risk of a disastrous monsoon has also declined. Nevertheless contingency plans for a “bad” monsoon are being prepared.
Conventional wisdom is that the difference between a good monsoon and a bad one is about 2% points for GDP.
Skeptical of skeptics: is Steve Goddard right?
June 29, 2014
by Judith Curry
Skeptics doing what skeptics do best . . . attack skeptics. – Suyts
View original post 1,462 more words
US temperature data are not real but “adjusted”
June 29, 2014It would now seem to be confirmed that US temperature data are being “adjusted” to meet the requirements of the adjusters.
This is more than confirmation bias. It is the fabrication of data.
I have posted this graph dozens of times, and hopefully this time it will be clear to everyone. The graph shows the average final temperature for all USHCN stations minus the average raw temperature for all USHCN stations. This is a very simple calculation which shows the average adjustment for all USHCN stations.
It shouldn’t be a surprise to NOAA or anybody else that an exponential increase in adjustments is occurring, as I have been showing the same graph (crying wolf) for many years.
USHCN adjustments – Real Science
While Real Science has been claiming this fabrication of data for some time it is only recently that it has started receiving serious attention. And it would seem that there are no real temperatures any more across the continental US. Where measuring stations no longer exist, temperatures are just made up for the purpose of “continuity”.
Paul Homewood has been looking at these and he posted this about the temperature adjustments at Kansas stations
Following much recent discussion on USHCN temperature adjustments, I have had a chance to analyse what has been going across the state of Kansas.
Altogether there are 30 USHCN stations, currently listed as operational in Kansas, and I have compared the mean temperatures from the USHCN Final dataset for January 2013, with the actual station measurements as listed in the State Climatological Reports. (There is one station at Lawrence, which I have excluded as the file seems to be corrupted). …..
- Nearly every station has had the actual temperatures adjusted upwards by about half a degree centigrade.
- There are 8, out of the 29 stations, which have “Estimated” temperatures on USHCN. This is a ratio of 28%, which seems to tie in with Steve Goddard’s country-wide assessment.
- Of these eight estimates, five are because of missing data, as listed at the bottom. Four of these are now shut.
- There seems to be no obvious reason why the other three estimates have been made , at Ellsworth, Liberal and Ottawa. The adjustments at these though don’t appear to be significantly different to the non estimated ones.
In addition to recent temperatures being adjusted upwards, we also find that historical ones have been adjusted down. So, for instance we find that the January 1934 mean temperature at Ashland has been adjusted from 3.78C to 3.10C, whilst at Columbus there is a reduction from 4.00C to 3.52C.
In total, therefore, there has been a warming trend of about 1C added since 1934. It has always been my understanding that the various adjustments made for TOBS, etc, have been made to the historic data, and that present temperatures were left unaltered. Certainly, the cooling adjustments of about half a degree in the 1930’s would seem to tally with what NOAA have been publishing.
But this leaves the question of just why there is a need to continually adjust current temperatures upwards.
What is going on is that the USHCN code is that while the RAW data file has the actual measurements, for some reason the final data they publish doesn’t get the memo that good data is actually present for these stations, so it “infills” it with estimated data using data from surrounding stations. It’s a bug, a big one. And as Zeke did a cursory analysis Thursday night, he discovered it was systemic to the entire record, and up to 10% of stations have “estimated” data spanning over a century. ……… And here is the real kicker, “Zombie weather stations” exist in the USHCN final data set that are still generating data, even though they have been closed. ……
There are quite a few “zombie weather stations” in the USHCN final dataset, possibly up to 25% out of the 1218 that is the total number of stations. In my conversations with NCDC on Friday, I’m told these were kept in and “reporting” as a policy decision to provide a “continuity” of data for scientific purposes. While there “might” be some justification for that sort of thinking, few people know about it there’s no disclaimer or caveat in the USHCN FTP folder at NCDC or in the readme file that describes this, they “hint” at it saying:
“The composition of the network remains unchanged at 1218 stations”
But that really isn’t true, as some USHCN stations out of the 1218 have been closed and are no longer reporting real data, but instead are reporting estimated data.
This is the fabrication of data – institutionalised – to satisfy a pre-determined conclusion.
UK is not necessary for the Fourth Reich of the United States of Europe
June 28, 2014My somewhat jaundiced and cynical view of what Juncker’s selection as President of the European Commission and Cameron’s defeat means. Cameron failed in his attempt to block the appointment of Juncker, but the EU failed in achieving a consensus.
In fact the French and the Germans have made it clear that the UK is not necessary in their definition of a European consensus.
The ultimate aim of the European Project is the creation of a United States of Europe where Brussels maps to Washington. This will require each member state to finally give up any semblance of sovereignty to the bureaucracy in Brussels and to the European parliament. A United States of Europe will favour the population-rich central part of Europe. That Germany and France endorse this goal is all too clear because they believe it will effectively be the start of the Fourth Reich of a Holy Franco-German Empire. The southern Europe states go along because they see greater economic benefit for themselves in being vassals and being supported by their masters in the richer north. The far northern states of Europe are small and just do not have the population and market size for their own home markets to be self-sufficient or to allow them much growth. They need the large markets of central and southern Europe to fuel their own growth. So they go along with the Project and dig their little heels in where they can.
The UK is the odd man out. While the UK has some clout due to its population, the Project is well aware that the UK – as it is – values its own sovereignty so high that its continued membership is entirely inconsistent with the aim of creating a United States of Europe. Better for a UK – if it stays united – to leave the EU than that it subverts the whole concept by remaining a member. The French and Germans would love to see the Balkanisation of the UK and an independent Scotland (perhaps followed by an independent Northern Ireland and an independent Wales). That would allow the fractured bits of the UK to stay within the EU but without the strength to jeopardise the Project. For an independent Scotland or Wales, ceding all power to Brussels rather than to London would not be all that bad. Moreover the markets of the fractured UK countries would then remain available to the EU but each of the new countries would have to accept the inevitability of the Fourth Reich.
It should be fairly obvious that while I would like the EU to remain as a free trade and free movement of labour area, any political union must come in a natural way and cannot be forced as Brussels and the Franco-German alliance are trying to do. If true economic union is achieved then political union across country boundaries becomes almost inevitable and a non-issue. Economic pressures have to be addressed first. Opening the political valve across an economic boundary is best done when pressures have equalised.
And yet the member states of the EU have already ceded many of their powers to the bloated Brussels bureaucrats. And inevitably their practices reduce to the lowest common behaviour. Rather than promoting best practices the EU enshrines the worst common practices. The EU parliament is about the most undemocratic institution there is where the members are not accountable to their constituencies, follow party guidelines and ultimately represent only themselves.
Just imagine the Canadians or the Mexicans having to follow bureaucratic diktats from Washington.
Midnight sun and Ramadan splits Muslim theologians
June 27, 2014This year the holy month of Ramadan, the ninth month of the Islamic calendar, is expected to begin on June 28th and will finish on July 27th. It is supposed to represent the month during which the Koran was revealed and the main – and characteristic – practice for Muslims globally is fasting from dawn to sunset. No food, no drink, no cigarettes, no sex while the sun is up.
In Kiruna in northern Sweden in the Arctic circle, there is no night from the end of May till the middle of July.
Muslim theologians and interpreters of the holy scriptures have found various ways to avoid following the Koran and fasting for a whole month in the land of the midnight sun. There is no consensus though, between Sunnis and Shias or within the various sects as to the correct practice to be followed. But they generally agree (except for the Saudi mullahs of course) that the Koran need not be followed literally in the Arctic circle. Mullahs consulted in the Middle East find themselves well outside their areas of competence but that does not stop them exhibiting their ignorance or from issuing their fatwas. (Common sense of course is not something of much value to any theologian).
- Some scholars have suggested that fasting could wait till the autumn – but this is considered a cop-out by other, stricter, holier eminences.
- Egyptian scholars – a pragmatic lot – allow that if the length of day is longer than 18 hours then the time in Mecca or Medina may be followed.
- “The Azhar Fatwa Committee in Egypt has issued a fatwa permitting Muslims in Scandinavia and Northern countries to fast according to Mecca time”.
- Iranian mullahs have decreed that long days do not provide an excuse for not fasting but leave it to the individual as to what time should be followed or if Muslims should just move to a more suitable location for the holy month.
- Saudi mullahs – may they live forever – insist that the local time must be followed and mere death should not be allowed to intervene.
Mullahs do not even entertain the heretical possibility that perhaps Islam is not a religion intended for the Arctic or the Antarctic.
As a compromise, some Kiruna muslims are following the times of sunset and sunrise in Stockholm – which still gives them a very long day and a very short night.
Mohammed was not an Inuit.
Biter bit: Suarez banned for 4 months including 9 international matches
June 26, 2014Luis Alberto Suárez Díaz, the serial biter / footballer has played his last match at this World Cup.
Uruguay striker Luis Suarez has been suspended from all football-related activity for four months for biting Italy defender Giorgio Chiellini.
Fifa’s independent disciplinary committee imposed the ban after finding the 27-year-old guilty of misconduct.
Suarez has also been banned for nine international matches, ruling him out of the rest of the World Cup.
Reuters: Suarez was also suspended from any football-related activity for four months and fined 100,000 Swiss francs ($111,000).
“Such behaviour cannot be tolerated on any football pitch, and in particular not at a FIFA World Cup when the eyes of millions of people are on the stars on the field,” Claudio Sulser, chairman of the FIFA Disciplinary Committee, said in a statement.
“The Disciplinary Committee took into account all the factors of the case and the degree of Mr Suarez’s guilt in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Code. The decision comes into force as soon it is communicated.”
Nothing is reported (yet) as to whether he
- will be required to wear a muzzle whenever he plays
- will have to take an AIDS test before every match
- will have his “wisdom” teeth extracted
- will have to provide a written guarantee to all opposing players before every match
- will have to provide his club Liverpool with a personal indemnity for his future actions
- will have to attend psychiatric counselling
- will be prosecuted for assault
Liverpool will not get very much for him when they do finally get rid for him.
Best to write his financial value off.
No sentience without sapience
June 26, 2014There was a great deal of publicity last week but I am not very convinced that the computer program Eugene Goostman actually passed the Turing test. But whether it did or not, I got to wondering how to distinguish sapience from sentience.
I find that I tend to use “sapience” to imply the capability for thought while I take “sentience” to be a quality of consciousness of self. Which of course leaves rather diffuse and undefined what precisely “thought” involves and what “consciousness of self” consists of. But is sapience linked to sentience? Can one have one without the other? Or does the quality of being conscious only become possible once thought exists?
Rene Descartes’ Cogito ergo sum (I think therefore I am) should perhaps be modified to be Cogito ergo, ego ut sit (I think therefore I may be). “I think therefore I am” requires a pre-conception of individuality, of the “I”. To be aware of the “I”, to be conscious of oneself and to be able to articulate that consciousness would suggest that thought is already present before consciousness of self can come into play. Clearly my computer “thinks” in a fashion, as do many animals – in their fashion. But while some minimum capability for thought may be necessary for consciousness, it is also clearly not sufficient. A certain level of sapience may be necessary for sentience but sapience does not necessarily lead to sentience. Some other attribute or quality is required for a thinking entity to be said to have the level of consciousness necessary for sentience.
The Turing test is, I think, a test of reaching a particular level of sapience but it is not a test of sentience. But I also think that there is a scale of sapience. All “artifical intelligences” show varying levels of applying “thought” and could be said to be sapient to some degree. Sapience would seem therefore to be on a continuous scale. Many animals and birds also exhibit some level of thought and clearly exhibit different degrees of sapience. But chimpanzees and gorillas and dolphins and even elephants seem to recognise themselves in a mirror while monkeys do not. They would seem to have different levels of self-consciousness and – it would seem – different levels of sentience. I take gorillas and chimpanzees and maybe elephants to be sentient – just – but not dogs or cats. Is there then a scale of sentience which is constrained (or enabled) by, and depends upon, an entity’s position on a scale of sapience? I suspect that whatever it is I intuitively consider to be sentient depends upon a combination of sapience and the level of consciousness of self of an entity.
Therefore my tentative definitions / conclusions become
- Entities may be “alive” or “inert”.
- Only some entities are sapient to any significant degree but sapience is independent of being alive.
- There is no sentience without sapience.
- Only some “living”, sapient entities are sentient.
- Sentience is a composite quality and – I propose – depends on the level of sapience and the level of consciousness exhibited by an entity.
sapience and sentience
Was Suarez paid to bite an opponent?
June 25, 2014I just saw this article on Swedish Radio’s website:
Betting site Betsafe offered odds of 175-1 that Suarez would bite an opponent during the World Cup. Over 100 people won.
Jonathan Brack from Stockholm was one of them. …….
The Swede won over 14 000 kronor after the game and is now planning a trip to Manchester to see his favorite team Machester United play.
This was just in Sweden. And when there is big money or big odds at stake I tend to suspect that some kind of fixing could have taken place. If the bookies have paid out then it can no longer be in doubt for FIFA that he did the deed.
Luis Suarez’ action was so stupid and so outrageous – considering that he has done this twice before – that I cannot help suspecting that he could have been paid to do what he did.
The numbers are compelling. Just suppose he had placed – through a friend of course – $100,000 with someone offering 175:1. With $17.5 million, being suspended for just 2 years would be no big deal! Or suppose that 1,000 punters worldwide each bet $1,000. That would have provided a pot of $175 million to be shared with Suarez if he ensured that they would win!!
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