MH370: The mystery may be that we think there is a mystery

April 3, 2014

I had dinner this evening with a varied group here in Kuala Lumpur.

I was rather struck by the reminder that a great deal of finding solutions lies in the framing of the problem.

Three were from the UK with peripheral connections to the airline industry who had just arrived from the Philippines. A couple were retired but knowledgable Australians and our hosts were our friends who were well respected Malaysian industrialists.

Inevitably the talk turned to MH370 and the mystery of its disappearance. Perhaps the problem lay in assuming that the disappearance was a mystery!

Of course this is all speculation but within this group some ” conclusions” were felt to be justified. It is almost impossible to avoid a conspiracy theory at some level since without some form of conspiracy, such a disappearance and such a long delay for the alarm to be raised should have been impossible.

  1. A “simple” catastrophic event followed by 7 hours of flying to nowhere makes little sense.
  2. A hijack “gone right” makes more sense than a hijack “gone wrong”.
  3. We should assume that what was achieved – the complete disappearance of aircraft and crew – was what was intended.
  4. The 239 passengers and crew perished a long time ago, and probably when the plane went up to 45,000 feet.
  5. The objective was to prevent certain cargo and/or certain passengers from completing their journey.
  6. The rest of the deaths were collateral damage.
  7. Whether the aircraft continues under a false identity or has been crashed into the ocean is irrelevant since the aircraft was irrelevant.
  8. If certain key passengers or the cargo were to be the target then the hijacking was probably state sponsored.
  9. The time delay between last contact and an alarm being raised (about 5 or 6 hours)  is suggestive that the Malaysian and some other governments were aware that something was up.

And now I cannot get it out of my head that the mystery lies in unravelling who wanted the plane, passengers, crew and cargo NOT to reach their destination – to vanish from the face of the earth.

All of this may be speculation but I am convinced that many Sate Governments  know a great deal more than they are letting on and that one or more of them know precisely what has transpired.

A hijacking gone right?

 

MH370: The altitude excursion which could have rendered most unconscious

April 1, 2014

I just came across this graphic from malaysiakini. I hadn’t seen the altitude presented graphically before.

The altitude excursion about 1 hour into the flight up to 45,000 feet could have rendered everybody on board unconscious. If it was done deliberately or otherwise is still the burning question.

MH370 altitude excursion

Graphic from Malaysiakini

Off on a break

April 1, 2014

Spring has sprung and we have shifted to summer time.

I have a month left to change to summer tyres.

Taking a break for most of April.

Places to go, people to meet, things to do.

Blogging will be very light – at best.

Lufthansa pilots are going on strike tomorrow for 3 days which may well affect some travel plans.

But the planned itinerary is:

itinerary 0

 

itinerary 1

 

itinerary 2

 

itinerary 3

 

itinerary 4

And then back home in good time for summer (and to cut the grass).

Itinerary 5

April Fool – Scottish theme in UK papers and IPCC gets its timing wrong (again)

April 1, 2014

I opened my gmail today to Google’s “Shelfie” April Fool prank. A little heavy handed I thought.

Google maps has a Pokemon prank.

The IPCC April Fool Report was released one day early and some gullible people are taking it seriously. (Of course the IPCC is probably the longest running and most expensive joke in recorded history).

UK papers have a Scottish theme with stories about an independent Scotland driving on the right, replacing the Queen’s head with Alex Salmond’s on coins and how the Union Jack would expunge the cross of St. Andrew.

Elsewhere there are also stories about apps for snoring – but in these days even the most ridiculous app could make you a fortune.

I am sure there are many more stories and pranks – but few to match the IPCC.

Do send in your favourites.

US Ambassador to India apparently sacked

March 31, 2014

It seems the US Ambassador to India, Nancy J Powell,  has been forced to resign by the Obama Administration (read John Kerry’s State Department) after just 2 years in her position. The story doing the rounds is that she earned the displeasure of her bosses for

  1. totally misjudging and underestimating the Indian reaction to the diplomat Khobragade’s prosecution in New York,
  2. misjudging the political developments and therefore not patching up and developing a proper relationship with Narendra Modi who is likely to be the next Prime Minister of India after the imminent general election, and
  3. being “missing from the action” by going off on long trekking excursions.

The thinking is that Washington wants to “reboot” the US/India relationship which is currently “frozen” and that requires a new, more politically savvy person – though Nancy Powell was herself a career diplomat. During her 37 year career, Powell, has served as US ambassador to Uganda, Ghana, Pakistan, Nepal and India. Also if Narendra Modi does become the next Prime Minister, Nancy Powell continuing as Ambassador would not be possible. It would be better therefore if she was already out of the way and did not present a potential liability.

These at least are the reasons which can openly be deduced. However there has also been an involvement of the US Embassy consular staff in support of getting US visas for the family of the maid who Devayani Khobragade was accused of mistreating. Apparently members of the maid’s family worked for some consular officials in India and the whole prosecution may have been engineered by US consular officials breaking many of their internal rules – and the buck for that stops with Nancy Powell.

IndiaToday: It was a series of diplomatic cables sent on behalf of US ambassador Nancy Powell that led to her being forced to resign by the US State Department, which didn’t want to be saddled with the Nancy legacy for doing business with a new government in New Delhi.

 Top diplomatic sources said that Powell authorised cables during diplomat Devyani Khobragade arrest row described the Indian position as weak and that it will not escalate the matter as the country was in an election mode, the reverse happened because of elections round the corner there was an unprecedented Indian anger and response which dipped the relationship to an all time low.

Earlier too Powell was blamed for not advising the Washington to do business with Narendra Modi and the US only courted Narendra Modi recently after the intervention of the US State Department.

The envoy was also blamed for being on frequent trekking tours and even the Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi had informed the interlocutors in Washington that her conduct was not helpful to the relationship.

The Obama Administration has said  – as they had to – that they had no differences with Powell and that her retirement was a planned event.

MH370: It may be the “best available” but is the evidence really “overwhelming”?

March 31, 2014

It does not add to the confidence when the story keeps changing. Tha last reported words from the cockpit were not “All right, good night” from the co-pilot but ” Goodnight. Malaysian three seven zero”  and it is not yet finalised as to who spoke the words.

I noticed today that Tony Abbott was quoted as saying that

“The accumulation of evidence is that the aircraft has been lost and it has been lost somewhere in the south of the Indian Ocean,” he told reporters at the Perth military base coordinating the search.

“That’s the absolutely overwhelming wave of evidence and I think that Prime Minister Najib Razak was perfectly entitled to come to that conclusion, and I think once that conclusion had been arrived at, it was his duty to make that conclusion public.”

But as far as I am aware the evidence of its location south west of Perth in the Indian Ocean is entirely – and solely – based on the analysis of routine communication signals between the ACARS system on the plane and Inmarsat’s satellite.

Slate: On the morning of Saturday, March 8, MH370 replied seven times to these pings, saying, in effect, “Yes, I’m here.” The line was open for the plane to communicate with the outside world. But the system that generates the messages themselves, called ACARS, had been shut off. So nothing else was communicated between the satellite and the plane.

…. When Inmarsat pinged it at 8:11 a.m. and received MH370’s reply, the amount of time it took the plane to respond allowed investigators to calculate its distance from the satellite. This did not correspond to a specific location but to an arc of possible locations across Central Asia in the north and the Indian Ocean to the south. … 

Could analysis of the six earlier pings narrow down the route that the plane had taken? ……  The first ping coincided more or less with the time when MH370 slipped out of range of Malaysia’s military radar. So we have a starting point. By knowing the interval to the next ping, and by estimating the plane’s speed, we can arrive at a distance traveled during that time. Given the radius of the next arc, it’s a simple matter to calculate a route by angling the distance traveled to meet up with that arc.

When the NTSB ran the numbers, the resulting plot showed the plane winding up in a remote part of the Indian Ocean, and that’s where searchers began focusing their efforts. …… Though the NTSB’s process worked for generating a likely path to the south, it could also be used just as effectively to create a path to the north. The satellite data itself is ambiguous—it provides no clues about which direction the plane is moving. 

….. the clever engineers at Inmarsat managed to squeeze one more drop from the thimbleful of data contained in those pings. …….. 

“This is an old satellite,” Exner said. “When satellites start to run out of hydrazine, you can’t keep them exactly geostationary.” Instead of keeping perfectly still above a certain spot, the satellite begins to slowly wobble. Over the course of the day, it makes a narrow figure eight around a central spot located on the Earth’s equator.

“It’s a small effect,” Exner says, “And normally you’d overlook it.” But in the hunt to overcome the symmetry of the ping data, Inmarsat likely realized that it could use the wobble of the satellite to its advantage. The satellite itself, depending on where it is in its orbit, will have a different relative motion compared to a northbound and a southbound plane. That relative motion can be detected as a Doppler effect. ….. The effect was subtle and difficult to tease out of the data, but when Inmarsat ran simulations, it found that the amount of Doppler effect observed in the MH370 data matched the predictions for the southern route and not the northern one. Comparisons with other flights whose location and speed were known supported that conclusion ….

Numbers don’t lie. But any analysis requires assumptions to be made and the results of mathematical analysis are only as good as the assumptions made. The analysis is based on the satellite’s wobble. Somewhere in the analysis Inmarsat also had to take account of the history of how ACARS systems on Malaysian Airlines flights had communicated with their wobbling satellite. That suggests that there is variation in how systems on different aircraft react. There is no reason to suspect that the assumptions made in this case were in error but there must be a quite substantial error band.

But apart from these signals and their analysis there is no corroborating evidence of any kind. No debris so far. No black box signal. The only “eye-witness” accounts of “something”, were off the Vietnam coast and over the southern part of the Maldives!

I suppose Tony Abbott was just supporting the Malaysian PM.

It is one piece of evidence and it may be the best evidence available, but I am far from certain that the evidence available is as yet “overwhelming”. I suppose that only finding debris from the aircraft could provide that.

Dutch beat England AT CRICKET!

March 31, 2014

In the cricketing world this must be the equivalent of a magnitude 9 earthquake or of Jamiaca beating Canada at ice hockey.

Except that this happened 5 years ago as well.

Cricket has in fact been played in the Netherlands for over 150 years – mainly by expats. Their first recorded match as a national team was in 1881. A number of Dutch cricketers have also played at the first class level in England, Australia and India.There is even a Dutch women’s team.

BBC:

England ended their winter of discontent on a new low as they were beaten by minnows Netherlands at the World Twenty20 in Chittagong.

With neither side able to reach the semi-finals, the Dutch raced to 84-1 in 11 overs before Ravi Bopara’s stint of 1-15 limited them to 133-5.

In reply, England were all out for just 88 as Bopara top-scored with 18.

England’s 45-run loss echoed the four-wicket reverse they suffered at the hands of the Dutch at Lord’s in 2009.

 

Vegetarians more susceptible to allergies, cancer, heart disease and depression

March 31, 2014

A new study from the University of Graz contradicts the politically correct advantages usually attributed to vegetarianism. “… our results showed that a vegetarian diet is associated with poorer health (higher incidences of cancer, allergies, and mental health disorders), a higher need for health care, and poorer quality of life”. 

It would seem that vegetarianism is “more about an ideological message that suggests false promises”.

Nutrition and Health – The Association between Eating Behavior and Various Health Parameters: A Matched Sample Study by Nathalie T. Burkert, Johanna Muckenhuber, Franziska Großschädl, Eva Rasky, Wolfgang Freidl, PLOS One, February 2014, Volume9, Issue 2.

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0088278

Abstract: Population-based studies have consistently shown that our diet has an influence on health. Therefore, the aim of our study was to analyze differences between different dietary habit groups in terms of health-related variables. The sample used for this cross-sectional study was taken from the Austrian Health Interview Survey AT-HIS 2006/07. In a first step, subjects were matched according to their age, sex, and socioeconomic status (SES). After matching, the total number of subjects included in the analysis was 1320 (N = 330 for each form of diet – vegetarian, carnivorous diet rich in fruits and vegetables, carnivorous diet less rich in meat, and carnivorous diet rich in meat). Analyses of variance were conducted controlling for lifestyle factors in the following domains: health (self-assessed health, impairment, number of chronic conditions, vascular risk), health care (medical treatment, vaccinations, preventive check-ups), and quality of life. In addition, differences concerning the presence of 18 chronic conditions were analyzed by means of Chi-square tests. Overall, 76.4% of all subjects were female. 40.0% of the individuals were younger than 30 years, 35.4% between 30 and 49 years, and 24.0% older than 50 years. 30.3% of the subjects had a low SES, 48.8% a middle one, and 20.9% had a high SES. Our results revealed that a vegetarian diet is related to a lower BMI and less frequent alcohol consumption. Moreover, our results showed that a vegetarian diet is associated with poorer health (higher incidences of cancer, allergies, and mental health disorders), a higher need for health care, and poorer quality of life. Therefore, public health programs are needed in order to reduce the health risk due to nutritional factors.

Press Release (in German)

NoTricksZone summarises the findings:

The scientists examined a total of 1320 persons who were divided up into 4 groups of 330 persons each. All groups were comparable with respect to gender, age, and socio-economic status. The study also accounted for smoking and physical activity. Also the BMI was within the normal range for all four groups (22.9 – 24.9). The only thing that really was different among the four groups was the diet. The four groups were: 1) vegetarians, 2) meat-eaters with lots of fruit and veggies, 3) little meat-eaters and 4) big meat-eaters. More than three quarters of the participants were women (76.4%).

..the results contradict the common cliché that meat-free diets are healthier. Vegetarians have twice as many allergies as big meat-eaters do (30.6% to 16.7%) and they showed 166% higher cancer rates (4.8% to 1.8%). Moreover the scientists found that vegans had a 150% higher rate of heart attacks (1.5% to 0.6%). In total the scientists looked at 18 different chronic illnesses. Compared to the big meat-eaters, vegetarians were hit harder in 14 of the 18 illnesses (78%) which included asthma, diabetes, migraines and osteoporosis .

The Medical University of Graz confirms findings by the University of Hildesheim: More frequent psychological disorders among vegetarians, the press release writes.

…. the University of Graz found that vegetarians were also twice as likely to suffer for anxiety or depressions than big meat eaters (9.4% to 4.5%). That result was confirmed by the University of Hildesheim, which found that vegetarians suffered significantly more from depressions, anxiety, psychosomatic complaints and eating disorders [2]. The U of Graz scientists also found that vegetarians are impacted more by ilnessses and visit the doctor more frequently …….

IPCC is still living in its world of “IF” and is stuck in denial

March 31, 2014

Institutionalised alarmism is difficult to stop. It has a momentum of its own.

There has been no global warming for almost 20 years.

The link between carbon dioxide as a significant cause of the non existent global warming is broken.

Yet, the IPCC has come out with part 2 of its wildly alarmist report.

Everything is based on IF.

Lead authors have resigned because the report is too alarmist.

The wolf is dead and they are still crying “Wolf”.

IF global warming continues we COULD be in trouble sometime after 2050.

BUT Global Warming has stalled and the IPCC is in denial

I just have to keep my head when others are losing theirs and dealing in lies-

If you can keep your head when all about you   
    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,   
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
    But make allowance for their doubting too;   
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
    Or being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or being hated, don’t give way to hating,
    And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise:
(Rudyard Kipling – IF)

Gender is a continuum, gayness is not gaiety and language has to catch up

March 30, 2014

Gender as a binodal continuum

The view that human gender is strictly dimorphic is giving way to the view that gender must be seen as a binodal continuum. How many people are “transgender” at birth  is uncertain both in number and in definition, but estimates range from 1 in 2000 all the way up to 10%. In addition to this modified view of genetic, gender variations in humans, the range  of socially “acceptable” behaviours is expanding. More countries are legalising “gay marriage”. LGBT (for  Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender) is becoming an accepted term.

Changes are happening faster than language can keep up with. Old terms are being used in new ways and new words will need to be found. Elljibeetee is almost a word. I find the term LGBT itself somewhat illogical since I take “gay” in its modern usage to mean “homosexual” and would have thought that “gay” would then encompass “lesbian”. There is no word for just male homosexuality. Also L, G and B are primarily behavioural traits whereas T is genetic and fixed by the time of birth. There are those who claim that sexual preference is also genetic but there is little evidence for that. What evidence there is speaks more to sexual preference being a behavioural trait acquired and developed largely after birth.

Unlike mathematics, the usage of most languages always trumps “correctness” or logic (and I like to think of mathematics as that special sub-set of language where logic prevails over usage). The spelling or even meaning of a word can be changed by weight of usage but 2+2 will not be 5 even if all 7 billion humans believe it is.

We now have the situation where monogamy refers not to one but to two people while bisexuality cannot be implemented without at least three people involved. Monosexual is taken to be a sexual preference for only one gender with a sub-set of homosexual (a preference for persons of the same gender) and a sub-set of heterosexual (a preference for persons of the opposite gender). Bisexual – in common usage – is taken to be a preference for any gender. The illogicality comes in that heterosexual is linguistically a sub-set of monosexual but is actually bisexual. Polysexual or pansexual would make more sense than bisexual if gender is now to be seen as a continuum but they are rarely used. Having a gender continuum is going to get even more confusing for language.

Gaiety can still be used for the state of being gay (in the cheerful sense) and carries no connotations of sexual preferences. Gay however can no longer be used just to mean merry and cheerful since usage overwhelmingly means homosexual. Gayness is now presumably the state of being gay.

Currently monogamy is then the state where there is a permanent or semi-permanent partnership between a male and a female. If formalised by civil contract the state is called marriage. The male is termed the husband and the female the wife. Even if gender is a continuum and not dimorphic, these terms can continue to be used since societies expect these roles to be fulfilled. Perhaps we have to consider using grades of manliness and womanliness? In the diagram above a very manly man will be just as far from the “normal” (abnormal)  as a very womanly man or a very manly woman! The very manly man and the very womanly woman would be the most lonely.

A part of such a civil contract is the mutual exclusivity of sexual relations promised between the two individuals involved. Where a male breaks such exclusivity by having sexual relations with other females, such other females are called his mistresses. Where a female breaks such exclusivity by having sexual relationships with other males they are not her masters but are known as her lovers or paramours. Lovers and paramours can equally apply as the illicit partners of  errant husbands. If either a male or a female breaks the exclusivity provisions by entering into another “exclusive” arrangement then it is called bigamy and the violator is called a bigamist. The term bigamist also applies in the case of multiple “exclusive” contracts being entered into by an individual (and using the more logical polygamist for such a person would go against current usage of polygamy).

When marriage is extended to include a new category of gay marriage, terms for the partners themselves and for any illicit partners are undefined. Husband, wife and mistress can no longer be used. New words will no doubt evolve. Language already lags behind socially accepted behaviour. Lover and paramour could still be used and I suppose that bigamy and bigamist would still apply. A conventional marriage would still need to be distinguished from a gay marriage. All marriage involving just two individuals should then be monogamy with conventional marriage being a bisexual monogamy and a gay marriage would be a monosexual monogamy. And with the continuum in mind some partnerships could be pansexual monogamies.

When there are more than two people involved things get complex. The possibilities that language must cope with increase in a geometric progression. Some societies permit a husband to have several wives simultaneously and this is termed polygyny whereas a wife having several husbands is polyandry. They are both forms of polygamy (or more logically both are bisexual polygamies assuming of course that sexual relationships in the group are always heterosexual or do I mean bisexual?). Group marriage has no special term and exists when several husbands are allied to several wives but any husband only has sexual relations with any wife (a poly-bisexual polygamy?) What should we then call a group consisting of a man with several husbands or a female with several wives? A poly-monosexual polygamy? And a group of people with no restrictions on sexual partners could then be a  poly–pansexual polygamy?

If gender were truly a continuum then the male/female distinctions could be dispensed with and many of the prefixes could be discarded. Misogyny and misandry would become obsolete. Misanthropy would still remain. But the gender continuum is weak  – even if real – and the fact remains that the distribution of gender characteristics among humans is very strongly binodal. “Binodal with a significant overlap” is probably the best description. As long as the clear nodal distribution exists then gender differences will also exist and legislating for gender equality will not remove those differences.

Prefixes from the Greek

  • mono = “one, only, single”
  • bi = “twice, two”
  • homo = “same”
  • hetero = “different, other”
  • pan =  “all, of everything”
  • poly = “much, many”

There are “keepers of language” who would like to guide its evolution and there others who are concerned about the “correctness” of usage. Both are futile exercises and actual usage will always prevail.