For cricket lovers — Three all out!

April 27, 2014

No comment needed about this score today but it was not the lowest score ever- that achievement was by Somerset club Langport who were dismissed for zero  against Glastonbury in a 1913 match.

I suppose that the innings lasted for as long as 56 balls is something of an achievement.  And Mr. C Hobson – the No. 11 – was the highest scorer with one run in 7 balls. Wirral batted second after their opponents scored 108 and lost by 105 runs.

Wirrall Cricket Club scorecard against Haslington

Wirrall Cricket Club scorecard against Haslington 27th April 2014

Source: BBC Sport

MH370 – 50 days on

April 27, 2014

It was 7 weeks yesterday since MH370 vanished with all its crew passengers and cargo.

Barack Obama is visiting Malaysia – the first visit by a sitting US President for over 50 years. He has expressed “solidarity” with Malaysia regarding MH370 – whatever that entails.

Since I left Malaysia on 8th April – one month after the vanishing act – nothing further has emerged. There is still no trace of anything. No debris at all. No bits and pieces gradually making their way to the surface. No passenger effects or luggage washed up anywhere. As if everything and everybody had been vaporised.

The behaviour of the Malaysian Air Force in ignoring the aircraft while flying back over Malaysian airspace and which was picked up by military radar is still to be explained.

Searches are continuing under water, in an area of the Indian Ocean which has been calculated to be its final position. The handshake radio pings from the ACARS system on board when communicating to a wobbly Inmarsat satellite contained no location or direction of flight information.  Those are being inferred from an analysis of the Doppler variations caused by the satellite’s wobble. A method being used for the first time and unproven. The probability that this calculation method is in error and may even be invalid is not insignificant.

Malaysiakini: Family members of MH370’s passengers have expressed doubt on the analysis of Inmarsat data that Prime Minister Najib Razak relied on to declare, some say with questionable haste, that the plane had “ended in the southern Indian Ocean”.

But what is known is that the aircraft spent 23 minutes at 45,000 feet and then descended rapidly to 23,000 feet. The passengers (and crew?) being incapacitated by hypoxia is highly probable. At most the oxygen masks could have provided 12 minutes of oxygen – perhaps less. A lack of oxygen for this long a time (11+ minutes) would have led not only to unconsciousness (after 4 or 5 minutes) but a permanent and irreversible coma. It is not unreasonable to suppose that all passengers and most of the crew were already dead or in an irreversible coma just over an hour into the flight, by the time the plane descended to 23,000 feet. It remains faintly possible that the pilot(s) were conscious at this time but if the plane was under remote control at this time then they too would likely have been fatally incapacitated.

But I note that there is nothing emerging about the cargo. Or about the software engineers on board.

Malaysiakini: MH370’s cargo manifest remains a secret, and its contents are unknown besides disclosure of an uncharacteristically large shipment of mangosteens, which are not in season in March, and potentially hazardous lithium-ion batteries …

A terrorist hijack with no subsequent publicity or claims makes no sense. The return to 23,000 feet and the continued “stealth” flight for several hours to “nowhere” makes “pilot suicide” highly unlikely. And that leaves a deliberate act – by persons or agencies unknown – to first eliminate all the passengers and crew and then a flight to get rid of some very sensitive cargo, the entire plane and all evidence in a remote and inaccessible place.

But it was no accident.

 

Drunk + Australian = Air-rage

April 25, 2014

At first glance a not very remarkable story. Australians being drunk and unruly has been a stereo-type since the 1960’s. I would have imagined that the Nanny-State that Australia has become might have softened that image but perhaps it is the very existence of the Nanny-State which gives more cause to rebel against authority and reinforces the “spoilt-brat” image.

Sydney Morning Herald:

A drunk passenger caused the closure of Bali’s airport and sparked a full-scale security alert when he attempted to enter the cockpit of a Virgin Australia flight from Brisbane to Denpasar, prompting the pilot to report a hijacking attempt.

Bali Air Force Commander Colonel Sugiharto, said the perpetrator was an Australian passenger named Matt Christopher Lockley, 28. 


DENPASAR, BALI, INDONESIA - APRIL 25:  Australian Matt Christopher, (C), a passenger of Virgin Blue Australia Airplane, who is believed to have tried to enter the cockpit, is arrested by Indonesian millitary officers at International Ngurah Rai airport in Denpasar on April 25, 2014 in Denpasar, Bali, Indonesia. Early reports suggested an attempt to hijack a Virgin Australia had occured mid-flight, although Virgin has since clarified that the disturbance was caused by a drunk passenger acting aggressively and attempting to enter the cockpit.  (Photo by Agung Parameswara/Getty Images)

Australian Matt Christopher Lockley, a passenger of the Virgin flight, who is believed to have tried to enter the cockpit, is arrested by Indonesian military officers. Photo: Agung Parameswara – Getty Images

But the interesting aspect is that air-rage leading to unruly “passenger incident” is – based on population or passengers carried  – more than 30 times more likely in Australia than the US.

Population: Australia 22.7 million; US 317 million

Air passengers (2012): Australia 65 million; US 735 million

Unruly Passenger Incidents (WSJ – 2011): Australia 488; US 192

Unruly Passenger Incidents per million passengers carried:

Australia – 7.5; USA – 0.26

World statistics are hard to come by but Australia probably leads the field in unruly airline passenger incidents.

No sign of global warming in Great Lakes ice cover

April 25, 2014

Great lakes (Wikipedia)

An exceptionally cold winter has seen the ice coverage over the Great Lakes being extremely high. Lake Superior has experienced the latest ever recorded start to shipping.

The total accumulated ice cover since 1980/81 and till 2013/14 shows no sign of any global warming. The season 2011/12 with its low ice cover was often “produced” as proof of global warming. By that standard of proof, 2013/14 clearly demonstrates that global cooling is upon us and a new ice age is on the way.

From Canadian Ice Service:

Historical Great Lakes Ice Cover 1980 - 2014

Tony Blair is still trying to justify his Iraq idiocy

April 24, 2014

The Iraq war, where Tony Blair played poodle to George Bush, was prosecuted on a lie. They didn’t like Saddam Hussain and so they got rid of him. They sexed up their dossiers about Weapons of Mass Destruction. They sold the lie to the United Nations. They managed to establish the principle that any state may get involved in regime-change in any other state – whenever it has the desire and the might to do so. Their idiot-behaviour has led to the growth of subsequent terrorism and of large numbers of  radicalised, Muslim, idiot-youth.

The view history takes of Tony Blair will not be pretty. He will – I think – be seen as an opportunistic, money-grubbing, dishonest politician who took advantage of his former high position for obscene personal gain. The growth of radicalised Muslim youth in Europe with their juvenile antics in search of jihad are a direct consequence of the Iraq War and the War on Terror. But Tony Blair is getting worried about his legacy and his place in history and he is at it again. He would like the world to believe that radical Islam – which he helped to create – must be confronted in a new Crusade.

Tony Blair’s speech seeking to rally global support for a confrontation with Islamic extremism generated a storm of reaction, most of it negative and much of it focusing on the messenger rather than the message.

The director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding, Chris Doyle, said the former prime minister had been right to underline the importance of the subject in his Bloomberg speech but was sharply critical of the way he went about tackling it.

Doyle said: “Blair is largely right to highlight the issue. Islamic extremism is not on the wane. It is flourishing in many areas of the world. Nobody should be complacent. “It is his solutions that are very problematic – particularly the idea that people in the Middle East have to choose between dictatorship and Islamic extremism, and in criticising the Muslim Brotherhood he has endorsed the military leadership in Egypt. But the choice the people of the region need is not between dictatorship and extremism but between those systems and pluralist democratic rule. In fact, dictatorships have often been a significant cause of frustration and anger, and a driving force behind the rise of al-Qaida.”

…….  The Palestinian editor of the Rai al-Youm news website, Abdel Bari Atwan, said: “Blair is implying that extremist Islam is a danger for the whole world. But the target is the Muslim Brotherhood. He is a very good friend of Mr Sisi in Egypt and he does a lot of consultancy work in the region so it’s not surprising that he’s speaking out. He had spent years as peace envoy but what kind of peace has he achieved? We have to differentiate between radical Islam and moderate Islam. If you criminalise Islamists like the Muslim Brotherhood then you are pushing them into extremism.”

Much of the commentary focused on Blair’s own credibility on the subject as much as the subject itself, particularly his role in leading Britain into the war in Iraq alongside the former US president George W Bush.

Doyle said: “Before 2003, there wasn’t an issue of al-Qaida in Iraq. There is now. Intervention is highly risky and almost always leads to situations where extremists flourish. They profit from instability, civil war and the inability of states to manage their territories.”

A columnist for the Saudi-owned al-Hayat daily, Jihad al-Khazen, said: “Blair and George W Bush are as responsible for radical Islam as any of its leaders. The war in Iraq caused the death of almost a million Muslims. It gave a reason for every radical in the Middle East to go to war against the west. “I don’t think Blair will absolve himself of responsibility by making this speech. He talks about how the Middle East matters but he says nothing about Israel’s continuing occupation. He is definitely not the right person to be lecturing on this subject – or to be a peace envoy. That’s an oxymoron.”

….. Meanwhile, a columnist on the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, Anshel Pfeffer, tweeted:

“The fascinating thing about Blair’s speech today is that it could have been a Netanyahu speech, word-for-word, they share the same outlook.”

Blair continues to be one of the most successful recruiters for radical Islam.

Perhaps at the root of all of this is the suspicion that those who will welcome Blair’s speech most will be the radical Islamists right across the region and beyond. One aim of the 9/11 attacks was to incite a vigorous military response that that could be represented as a war not just against radical Islamists but against Islam itself. A “clash of civilisations” may be too strong a phrase for Blair’s speech but a clash of beliefs is not too strong a term to use, to which an Islamist response might well be – “bring it on”.

The War on Terror is a crusade gone wrong. Certainly radical Islam is barbaric and uncivilised. But being barbaric and uncivilised against radical Islam, as Blair is and would like others to be, only legitimises and perpetuates the barbarism. Iraq has been followed by Afghanistan, by Libya, by Egypt and now by the fiasco in Syria. Much blood has been shed but all these irresponsible adventures have been spectacular failures in the War on Terror. Abu Ghraib and unmanned drones and State Terrorism and collateral damage have only legitimised the use of terror as a tactic of war. Boko Haram have learned the lesson.

Perhaps Tony Blair needs to be compared with Bernard, Abbot of Clairvaux and his role in the disastrous Second Crusade of 1145:

…. the Second Crusade, launched in 1145, is generally regarded as a disaster for the Christian West. Even those who took part in the Crusade saw it as a failure. According to William of Tyre:   Thus a company of kings and princes such as we have not read of through all the ages had gathered and, for our sins, had been forced to return, covered with shame and disgrace, with their mission unfulfilled…. henceforth those who undertook the pilgrimages were fewer and less fervent. 

…. Brundage claims that the failure of the Crusade to achieve any victories whatever in the east emboldened Muslim military leaders, destroyed the myth of western prowess in arms, and was to be responsible, at least in part, for causing the Muslim states of the east to draw closer together, to unite for further attacks upon the Latin states. He says that the end of the Second Crusade saw the Muslims preparing to unite, for the first time, against the Latin intruders in their midst, while the Latins, for their part, were divided sharply against one another.

Bernard was the Pope’s poodle as Blair was Bush’s.

One of Bernard’s most influential acts, for better or worse, was his preaching of the Second Crusade. The First Crusade had given the Christian forces control of a few areas in Palestine, including the city of Edessa. When Moslem forces captured Edessa (37:08 N 38:46 E, now called Urfa and located in eastern Turkey) in 1144, King Louis VII of France (not to be confused with St. Louis IX, also a Crusader, but more than a century later) was eager to launch a crusade to retake Edessa and prevent a Moslem recapture of Jerusalem (31:47 N 35:13 E). He asked Bernard for help, and Bernard refused. He then asked the Pope to order Bernard to preach a Crusade. The pope gave the order, and Bernard preached, with spectacular results. Whole villages were emptied of able-bodied males as Bernard preached and his listeners vowed on the spot to head for Palestine and defend the Sacred Shrines with their lives.

…. As for the Crusade, things went wrong from the start. The various rulers leading the movement were distrustful of one another and not disposed to work together. Of the soldiers who set out (contemporary estimates vary from 100,000 to 1,500,000), most died of disease and starvation before reaching their goal, and most of the remainder were killed or captured soon after their arrival. The impact on Bernard was devastating, and so was the impact on Europe.

 I don’t much care for Tony Blair.

Ranking the airports on my recent trip

April 23, 2014

Seven airports this time. I rank them as follows:

  1. Stockholm Arlanda
  2. Munich
  3. Kuala Lumpur
  4. Delhi
  5. Bangkok
  6. Frankfurt
  7.  last by a long way Madras (Chennai)

Stockholm Arlanda had fairly efficient, courteous and hassle-free security checks. The enforced walk through the shops is irritating. Quick check-in this time and the distances to be covered by my poor knees were not that great.

I like Munich airport even if arriving from a non-Schengen destination can be a real pain. This time I was arriving from a Schengen port (no security check needed) and departing to a non-Schengen port which was fine. Distances were not unreasonably long and the walkways were all working.

The airport at Kuala Lumpur is well laid out and clean and impressive. But Malaysian airline staff were far too laid back (my euphemism for “lazy”) and uninterested. Some long distances to cover though – with no walk-ways in sections.  Immigration was fairly efficient. I was not searched by customs but those who were seemed to be being hassled unnecessarily.

The new Delhi airport is modern and clean and generally well laid out. The distances to be walked are excessive and the walk-ways coverage is not well planned. The carpeting (cheap and already going tatty) is not helpful for rolling baggage along. Passport control was unremarkable and baggage arrived fast. Security checks – as with other Indian airports – are slow but not inordinately so.

Bangkok has deteriorated from when it was built. Distances to cover are enormous (especially if having to transfer from one wing to the other). Security checks were slow, the lay-out was labyrinthine and the staff very smart but inefficient. I was not very impressed this time either by the airport or by the staff. Thai Airlines staff – on the other hand – are very efficient and courteous.

Frankfurt has become a pain. It is just too big. The train between terminals has remarkably bad coverage. Passport control is slow because there are never enough counters for the number of passengers involved. The security staff at Frankfurt are particularly arrogant and officious and petty (even with a 3 year old child). They are also very slow. The charm-schools they went to just don’t work. The distances to be walked have grown to become quite painful. Changing terminals is not fun.

The new Chennai airport was pathetic. Entering the terminal is chaotic and badly sign-posted. Construction is not yet complete  and where it is, bits are falling off. Airport staff are not well trained and don’t seem to know what they are doing. Toilets were unclean and smelly. Passport control was OK and the security checks were again slow but otherwise unremarkable. The gates are badly designed and have no space for departing passengers . Stores are charmless and chaotic. It has been designed to be all chrome and glass and to look pretty but lacks all the substance needed for a modern international airport. The quality of the construction leaves much to be desired. (somebody has made a lot of money by using sub-standard fixtures, fittings and materials).

 

Malaysia moves towards issuing death certificates and writing-off MH370

April 23, 2014

MH370 remains missing. The Malaysian authorities now want to issue death certificates for all on board and to draw a line under the whole incident. A declaration of death is a “preventive adjudication”. Normally a presumption of death requires a prolonged period of absence (7 years for example) but can be reached faster after overwhelming evidence of a crash or a sinking or a disaster. For MH370 there is no evidence of any kind.

Death certificates allow the process of closing the whole matter to start. Funds set up for the relatives of those presumed dead and for meeting any damages assessed by courts is a way of “liquidating the damage” and walking away.

A nightmare to wake up from.

The “search” continues in the Indian Ocean –  but the only evidence that this is where the plane is, is based on a calculation method which is itself based on an untested hypothesis. Even the international search team are beginning to entertain the notion that the plane may have landed somewhere.

Today, sources within the International Investigation Team admitted that the search may have to start again from scratch.

Speaking to the New Straits Times, a source said: “We may have to regroup soon to look into this possibility if no positive results come back in the next few days.”

The team has not suggested which country the plane might have landed in and have admitted it was difficult to know for sure if the plane crashed into the Indian Ocean.

But, as reported by Mail Online, sources from the search team said: “The thought of it landing somewhere else is not impossible, as we have not found a single debris that could be linked to MH370.

“However, the possibility of a specific country hiding the plane when more than 20 nations are searching for it, seems absurd,.”

A modern airliner going missing and leaving no trace is also absurd.

That this event was a deliberate act and the observed result is what was intended is increasingly likely.

This was no accident!

 

Snippets in transit

April 15, 2014

I am about half-way through my travels.

17,000 km by air, 600 km by car and about 6 km walking so far. With my knees lacking cartilage it was 2 of the 6 km walking which were excruciating – inevitably while changing flights.

Arriving is still fun and exciting. Traveling there is a hassle. Security checks are a pain. Swollen feet are an occupational hazard. Physical discomfort is used by the airlines to get passengers to pay more for every little extra.

The fracture of Ukraine – as a consequence of badly thought through EU  expansionism – continues.

MH370 remains invisible and all evidence has been disappeared.

Voting at the Indian elections is about 35% complete. Looks like Narendra Modi and the BJP. Results on May 16th.

The UN IPCC is getting more and more ridiculous and irrelevant to anything. Global temperatures have remained constant while carbon dioxide emissions have tripled. So emissions must be reduced!! Fossil fuels are wrong but fracking is OK! ????

Sri Lanka beat India in the finals of the T-20 championship. Holland beat England.

Liverpool are getting close. My son named his new dog Shankly.

About 14,000 km and 8 days to go.

 

MH370: The most successful, state-sponsored hijacking ever?

April 13, 2014

It has been 5 weeks since MH370 vanished. The story is leaving the front pages. I have just spent a week in Malaysia and have been listening to much fascinating speculation (and speculation because there is no evidence). There was a growing feeling that the lack of evidence itself was intended and was critical.

A modern airliner with all it’s crew, passengers and cargo has vanished from the face of this earth. Five weeks after the event there is still no trace of anything. No debris of any kind. Even the supposed pings from the black-box are suspect and could be anything and even these are now fading.

All this in an age where satellite images have a resolution of better than 1m; where communications between anybody to anybody anywhere in the world can be – and are – routinely tapped by the NSA and it’s counterparts in Germany, the UK, Russia, China and even Australia; and where computers with communication facilities can be hacked into by all security agencies and especially when such computer hardware or software are pre-enabled for such hacking. It has become apparent that auto-pilots and flight computers fitted on Boeing aircraft have the capability of being programmed remotely and the auto-pilot can be switched into an “uninterruptible” mode.

This was no accident!

The most parsimonious explanation is that this vanishing trick was the deliberate and intended result of an operation which was spectacularly and successfully implemented.

Who then and why?

There were 20 Chinese software experts on board. They had been working for Freescale Technology in Texas on technology which could convert ordinary aircraft into “stealth” aircraft. Patents had been applied for but have not yet been granted. MH 370 was carrying a “large” package as a Chinese diplomatic package and was therefore not subject to any search or security procedures. The speculative, uncorroborated but plausible and most parsimonious explanation becomes:

  1. The Chinese software engineers “stole” technology on behalf of the Chinese government from Freescale.
  2. Freescale was slow in picking up the theft and alerting the authorities.
  3. US intelligence and security agencies were unable to prevent the engineers and their package from reaching Malaysia.
  4. They were also unable to prevent the engineers boarding MH370 bound for Beijing or the precious cargo from being loaded as diplomatic cargo.
  5. The operational arm of a US Security Agency took the decision – without recourse to their political masters – to prevent the engineers and their cargo from reaching Beijing, at any cost.
  6. Since collateral damage would be high it was imperative that all evidence be obliterated.
  7. With the probable assistance of Boeing, and soon after take-off, the in-flight computer was remotely re-programmed.
  8. The auto-pilot was remotely put into uninterruptible mode.
  9. The Malaysian military was “persuaded” – without the knowledge of their political masters – to ignore the plane’s turn-back and flight westwards over Malaysia for a few critical hours.
  10. The passengers and crew were all “executed” by the excursion up to 45,000 feet implemented by the autopilot.
  11. The remainder of the flight path was to get the plane and it’s cargo into an as inaccessible a location as possible.
  12. The aircraft was allowed to run out of fuel such that the auto-pilot made as soft a  ditching as possible in as remote a place as possible. This increased the probability of the plane sinking intact with little or no debris.
  13. The location was deliberately chosen to be over deep ocean so that any black-box evidence would be almost impossible to come by.

I am becoming convinced that this was all deliberate and a highly successful operation with a very high level of collateral damage – 239 dead.

Who should be blamed? The Chinese government for its industrial espionage which provoked the over-kill response? The US Agency which carried out the action to protect sensitive technology? Freescale for being lax? The political establishments in China and the US which exercise little oversight or control over their intelligence and security agencies?

“Collateral damage” has become the euphemism to use as a cloak whenever the ends are used to justify the means and where the means always lead to the death of many innocents.

“Climate policy” has degenerated into ritualistic actions with no measurable objectives

April 5, 2014

I met some old friends yesterday and we were discussing development in SE Asia and  the diversion of resources from real actions with real objectives into “faith-based” actions where there were no objectives or where the objectives were not measurable.

There was no disagreement that any government policy to be characterised as policy needed proposed actions to be first tied to results and second to results which could be measured. There was no dissension from the proposition that any policy where the results could not be measured was a fundamental waste of resources.

The discussion got a little more heated when I challenged the gathering to name a single  “climate policy” action – whether proposed by any government or any environmental group or any UN organisation – which had a result on climate which was measurable. Carbon taxes, carbon footprint, renewable energy, shifting from fossil fuels and carbon emissions were all mentioned. But in not a single case could anybody find any measurable climate objective. The only measurements that were possible – and which were often quoted – were of the actions themselves – but never were any of the objectives measurable or even definable.

It soon became apparent that many governments set targets for how much energy would be generated by renewables, for example, and that this could be measured but in not a single case could a climatic effect to be achieved even defined – let alone measured.  It was the same in every case. The input could be measured but the output – the effect of the action on climate – could not be defined or measured. It was always taking actions for the sake of taking actions in the belief that there was a climate benefit. But the climate benefit was always undefinable and unmeasurable. Measuring inputs with no measurable objectives do not a policy make.

Every policy was based on the “faith”  that it would be good for climate but the benefit was unknowable and unmeasurable.

There is not a single climate policy proposed by the IPCC or by any government in the world  which has a definable and measurable climate benefit.

Hopes and faith are insufficient to convert religious rituals into rational policy.