Archive for the ‘Ice Cover’ Category

Confirmed: Antarctic has been gaining ice mass (even while fossil fuel use has been increasing)

November 1, 2015

One again, very clear evidence that the IPCC reports are mere advocacy for lobby groups. They are not scientific reports.

A new study by NASA confirms their finding of 2012 that the Antarctic is gaining in ice mass. The paper is published in the Journal of Glaciology.

Zwally, H. Jay, ; Li, Jun; Robbins, John W.; Saba, Jack L.; Yi, Donghui; Brenner, Anita C. Mass gains of the Antarctic ice sheet exceed losses. Journal of Glaciology, 2015 DOI: 10.3189/2015JoG15J071

Antarctic ice accumulation not only provides no evidence of any global warming, it is also direct evidence that the global warming hypothesis itself is flawed. This ice accumulation has been taking place while carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has been increasing. Leaving aside how much of this increase may be due to human use of fossil fuel, the ice accumulation shows that carbon dioxide concentration is not a significant factor.

As the French mathematicians recently charged:

no sensible, high-quality journal would publish the IPPC‘s work. The IPPC‘s conclusions go against observed facts; the figures used are deliberately chosen to support its conclusions (with no regard for the most basic scientific honesty), and the natural variability of phenomena is passed over without comment. The IPPC‘s report fails to respect the fundamental rules of scientific research and could not be published in any review with a reading panel.

The new NASA paper shows that in recent times the Antarctic gains about 200 billion tons of ice a year while losing about 65 billion tons. Which also means that the Antarctic is responsible for about 135 million tons of water leaving the water cycle and being locked up as ice. This water can only come from the moisture concentration in the atmosphere (including clouds) or from the sea. There is no measurable change in the moisture in the atmosphere and that leaves the seas.

Rather than Antarctic melting causing sea level rise, Antarctic ice accumulation is most likely reducing the rate of sea level rise due to the recovery from the last glacial.

Of course the global warming orthodoxy will now tell us with impressive modelling results, that ice increasing at the Antarctic is perfectly consistent with the warming of the planet.

Go pull the other one.

This and the 2012 paper are in direct contradiction to the IPCC’s 2013 report which claimed that the Antarctic was losing ice. But as the French mathematicians noted the IPCC reports would not meet the normal publishing standards for scientific reports.

I don’t suppose anybody will take any notice of this during the Paris wealth transfer discussions. When will any politician or government have the courage to challenge the religious orthodoxy?

Abstract:

Mass changes of the Antarctic ice sheet impact sea-level rise as climate changes, but recent rates have been uncertain. Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) data (2003–08) show mass gains from snow accumulation exceeded discharge losses by 82 ± 25 Gt a–1, reducing global sea-level rise by 0.23 mm a–1. European Remote-sensing Satellite (ERS) data (1992–2001) give a similar gain of 112 ± 61 Gt a–1. Gains of 136 Gt a–1 in East Antarctica (EA) and 72 Gt a–1 in four drainage systems (WA2) in West Antarctic (WA) exceed losses of 97 Gt a–1 from three coastal drainage systems (WA1) and 29 Gt a–1 from the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). EA dynamic thickening of 147 Gt a–1 is a continuing response to increased accumulation (>50%) since the early Holocene. Recent accumulation loss of 11 Gt a–1 in EA indicates thickening is not from contemporaneous snowfall increases. Similarly, the WA2 gain is mainly (60 Gt a–1) dynamic thickening. In WA1 and the AP, increased losses of 66 ± 16 Gt a–1 from increased dynamic thinning from accelerating glaciers are 50% offset by greater WA snowfall. The decadal increase in dynamic thinning in WA1 and the AP is approximately one-third of the long-term dynamic thickening in EA and WA2, which should buffer additional dynamic thinning for decades.

This map shows the rates of mass changes from ICESat 2003-2008 over Antarctica. Sums are for all of Antarctica: East Antarctica (EA, 2-17); interior West Antarctica (WA2, 1, 18, 19, and 23); coastal West Antarctica (WA1, 20-21); and the Antarctic Peninsula (24-27). Credit: Jay Zwally/ Journal of Glaciology

This map shows the rates of mass changes from ICESat 2003-2008 over Antarctica. Sums are for all of Antarctica: East Antarctica (EA, 2-17); interior West Antarctica (WA2, 1, 18, 19, and 23); coastal West Antarctica (WA1, 20-21); and the Antarctic Peninsula (24-27).
Credit: Jay Zwally/ Journal of Glaciology

Science Daily reports:

A new NASA study says that an increase in Antarctic snow accumulation that began 10,000 years ago is currently adding enough ice to the continent to outweigh the increased losses from its thinning glaciers.

The research challenges the conclusions of other studies, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 2013 report, which says that Antarctica is overall losing land ice.

According to the new analysis of satellite data, the Antarctic ice sheet showed a net gain of 112 billion tons of ice a year from 1992 to 2001. That net gain slowed to 82 billion tons of ice per year between 2003 and 2008.

“We’re essentially in agreement with other studies that show an increase in ice discharge in the Antarctic Peninsula and the Thwaites and Pine Island region of West Antarctica,” said Jay Zwally, a glaciologist with NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, and lead author of the study, which was published on Oct. 30 in the Journal of Glaciology. “Our main disagreement is for East Antarctica and the interior of West Antarctica — there, we see an ice gain that exceeds the losses in the other areas.” Zwally added that his team “measured small height changes over large areas, as well as the large changes observed over smaller areas.” 

Scientists calculate how much the ice sheet is growing or shrinking from the changes in surface height that are measured by the satellite altimeters. In locations where the amount of new snowfall accumulating on an ice sheet is not equal to the ice flow downward and outward to the ocean, the surface height changes and the ice-sheet mass grows or shrinks.

But still the authors find it necessary to bow down to orthodoxy. That’s probably necessary to get published and to avoid being labelled climate heretics. “It might only take a few decades for Antarctica’s growth to reverse”. Right, and then again it might not.

But it might only take a few decades for Antarctica’s growth to reverse, according to Zwally. “If the losses of the Antarctic Peninsula and parts of West Antarctica continue to increase at the same rate they’ve been increasing for the last two decades, the losses will catch up with the long-term gain in East Antarctica in 20 or 30 years — I don’t think there will be enough snowfall increase to offset these losses.”

In any event, reducing carbon dioxide emissions by cutting the use of fossil  fuels is of no significance to Antarctic ice accumulation – and therefore, of no significance either to any global warming that may be occurring.

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No sign of global warming in Great Lakes ice cover

April 25, 2014

Great lakes (Wikipedia)

An exceptionally cold winter has seen the ice coverage over the Great Lakes being extremely high. Lake Superior has experienced the latest ever recorded start to shipping.

The total accumulated ice cover since 1980/81 and till 2013/14 shows no sign of any global warming. The season 2011/12 with its low ice cover was often “produced” as proof of global warming. By that standard of proof, 2013/14 clearly demonstrates that global cooling is upon us and a new ice age is on the way.

From Canadian Ice Service:

Historical Great Lakes Ice Cover 1980 - 2014

Extra ice-breakers to the Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence Seaway

March 26, 2014

There is more ice cover in the Great Lakes than there has been for twenty years. For this week the ice cover is just under 80% compared to the long-term average of just under 20%. That hardly provides any evidence of “global warming”. It is nothing particularly extreme either — after all it happened twenty years ago. The only conclusion that is supported is that there has been little – if any – change in the climate over the Great Lakes over the last twenty years.

CTV News: 

19th March:The Canadian Coast Guard says it is sending more icebreakers to help clear shipping channels in the frozen Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Seaway.

“What we have committed to do given the extreme conditions is to bring two more assets (icebreakers), as well as a hovercraft, to facilitate the opening of the seaway,” Mario Pelletier, the coast guard’s assistant commissioner, said from Ottawa Wednesday.

Faced with the worst ice conditions in 20 years, Pelletier said it is too early to say when freighters filled with grain and other commodities will be able to move normally through the trade corridor. ….. A section of the seaway between Lake Ontario and Montreal is frozen but it set to open March 31. Shipping channels west of that area are choked with thick ice. 

“The conditions at Thunder Bay and the Sault Ste. Marie system is very extreme and the eastern portion of Lake Erie,” Pelletier said. There are already two coast guard icebreakers in the Great Lakes. One additional icebreaker is to be in the seaway system by Friday, Pelletier said. It is to be joined by another icebreaker and a hovercraft early next week. More coast guard ships could follow.

The Canadian Ice Service graph below shows the historical extent of ice cover on the Great Lakes for this week of the year – currently more than four times greater than “normal” at just under 80%.

Great lakes Ice Cover week of March 26th

Great lakes Ice Cover week of March 26th

Ice cover on the Great Lakes at an unprecedented (since 1980) high

March 4, 2014

Ice cover on the Great lakes typically reaches maximum in the second week of March and the median since 1980 is at about 40%.

This week ice cover reached over 90%. Maximum in a “normal” year would be reached in the second week of March.

Both the diagrams below are from the Canadian Ice Service with the first showing ice cover historically for this week (since 1980) and the second showing the ice cover for this season (2013/2014) with the median for 1980-2010. This season ice cover is running at more than twice the median values.

Historical Great lakes Ice Cover  week of 0304 Canadian Ice Service

Historical Great lakes Ice Cover week of 0304
Canadian Ice Service

Great Lakes Ice Cover Season 2013 - 2014 Canadian Ice Service

Great Lakes Ice Cover Season 2013 – 2014 Canadian Ice Service

Global warming contortionists will no doubt find strange and convoluted explanations to show that this massive increase of ice cover is not inconsistent with global warming. The missing heat could be hiding in the deep waters around the world and Nessie is probably running a fever.

Of course this massive increase of ice cover is also not inconsistent with the start of another Little Ice Age.

The most parsimonious explanation is that the climate and weather are going through their “natural variations” (due directly or indirectly to the Sun) and that there is no missing heat. Which leads to the obvious – but politically incorrect – conclusion that man-made global warming is – at most – insignificant.


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