February 23, 2012
The Global Warming priesthood have long experience in fudging data, cheating and suppressing opposing views. But Peter Gleick, a true acolyte of the religion, has now been reduced not only to lying, cheating and stealing but also to forgery and fakery.
The blogosphere has been full of the Fakegate or the Peter Gleick affair for the last week. First he used impersonation and lying to extract confidential documents from Heartland. He clearly has broken some laws. But he found nothing very damaging regarding climate sceptics so he forged a “summary” document so as to be able to add some spice to the affair. He then disseminated the documents widely and these were immediately publicised by a gullible and hypocritical orthodoxy.
Peter Gleick - Faker
Of course Gleick is a climate alarmist and activist and for him and his friends Heartland remains the “villain” and his ends of “exposing” the alleged bad guys apparently justifies his dishonest and criminal means. His authorship of the forged document was recognised by Steven Mosher and Climate Audit just from his writing style and bad punctuation. Needless to say Gleick is considered by the global warming priesthood as an expert exponent of integrity in science research. In this sordid case some are delusional enough to see him as a hero.
Gleick’s own work is unimportant and lacking any real scientific content. His lack of ethics (apart from his poor writing and general incompetence) is of no great significance. But his behaviour exposes and is in the tradition established by the Hockey Stick crowd (Mann, Jones, Hansen, Trenberth et al) of fudging and cheating and suppression of opposing views.
BREAKING: Gleick Confesses
Peter Gleick Confesses
Gleick’s AGU Resignation
Megan McArdle gives Mosher and the blogosphere props for pointing to Gleick
Peter Gleick Confesses to Obtaining Heartland Documents Under False Pretenses
FakeGate: Just Another Day at Team Green
Fakegate Illustrates Global Warming Alarmists’ Deceit and Desperation
Tags: Climate Audit, climate change, Fakegate, Forgery, global warming, Heartland Institute, Megan McArdle, Peter Gleick, Scientific misconduct
Posted in Alarmism, Climate, Corruption, Ethics, Fraud | 1 Comment »
February 22, 2012
The apparent over-representation of scientists of Indian origin in cases of scientific misconduct ought to be exercising the minds of the Indian scientific community – both in India and abroad. But any efforts to stamp out plagiarism in India – and many are trying – are completely undermined when eminent scientists from the most prestigious Indian institutions start trivialising or making excuses for plagiarism.
S. B. Krupanidhi
The Prime Minister’s Science Advisor Professor CNR Rao has admitted and apologised for his plagiarism but has gotten away without the paper written under his supervision being retracted. The apology should have been accompanied by highly-visible measures to stamp out the increasing incidence of “cut-and-paste” artists posing as scientists. Instead the nonchalant attitude of a co-author, SB Krupanidhi (Professor and Chairman, Materials Research Centre, Indian Institute of Science) gives me little confidence that there is much value being given to the integrity of scientific research. He blames the student he was supposed to be supervising but will take no action as the Indian Institute of Science tries to brush everything under the carpet. “People make mistakes. There will be no action taken against the student, ” he said.
TOI reports:
India’s top scientist and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s adviser CNR Rao had to apologise to a leading scientific journal for reproducing text of other scientists in his research paper.
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Tags: academic misconduct, India, Indian Institute of Science, Jawaharlal Nehru Centre for Advanced Scientific Research, Krupanidhi, Plagiarism, Rao, Scientific misconduct
Posted in Academic misconduct, India, Science, scientific misconduct | 3 Comments »
February 22, 2012
If the 19th century was the dawn of the Age of Coal and the 20th century was the Age of Oil, the 21st century seems to be well on the way to being the Age of Gas.
Gas shales are being found all over the globe. The US has reserves of 860 trillion cubic feet of shale gas. In many countries gas-bearing shales have not yet been fully explored but known reserves include; in China (1,275tn cubic feet), Argentina (774tn), Mexico (681tn) South Africa (485tn), Canada (388tn), Libya (290tn), Algeria (231tn), Brazil (226tn), UK (200tn), Poland (187tn) and France (180tn). Exploration is still under-way in Russia, central Asia, India, the Middle East, south- east Asia and central Africa. New finds of Natural gas are being discovered off the coast of East Africa. Exploration is now extending to deposits of methane hydrates in the deep sea (>500m) and under permafrost. For electricity generation and large scale heating (district heating) gas is likely to be the preferred alternative. By 2030, gas will probably overtake coal and oil as an energy source. Compressed gas for transport is already in use. Wind and solar energy will not be insignificant but will remain expensive and just a minor contributor. Even where the renewables are used for political ends, gas will have to provide the necessary back-up.
The IEA called it in their special report: Are we entering a golden age of gas.
Reuters reports that new finds are converting East Africa into a gas hub: Statoil find adds to East Africa gas hopes
Martin Wolf writes in the Financial Times: Prepare for a Golden Age of Natural Gas
… the EIA notes that “the advent of large-scale shale gas production did not occur until Mitchell Energy and Development Corporation experimented during the 1980s and 1990s to make deep shale gas production a commercial reality in the Barnett Shale in North-Central Texas.” But, by now, it adds, “[t]he development of shale gas has become a ‘game changer’ for the US natural gas market.”
Tags: Age of Gas, dash for gas, gas glut, Natural gas
Posted in Energy, Gas | 1 Comment »
February 21, 2012
A panel of seismologists who met just days before the 2009 earthquake in L’Aquila, Italy are on trial over their reassurances to the public. WOLFANGO VIA FLICKR UNDER CREATIVE COMMONS.
Back in September when this trial for manslaughter began, many rushed to the defence of the scientists being indicted as being an “attack on science”. I wrote then that indictments for incompetence or negligence or even gross negligence by scientists should not be confused with being an indictment of the scientific method. Scientists are in a privileged position but that does not mean that they cannot be liable for their incompetence. As the trial lumbers on it becomes clearer that there was indeed some considerable incompetence involved. Now Nature reports that a Californian scientist and earthquake expert is testifying against the defendents:
….. The hearing also included some true scientific debate when Lalliana Mualchin, former chief seismologist for the Department of Transportation in California, testified as an expert witness for the prosecution. In 2010, when news about the indictment broke, Mualchin was among the few experts who openly criticized — and refused to sign — a letter supporting the indicted seismologists signed by about 5,000 international scientists.
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Tags: 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, Earthquake, Italy, liability for scientists, Mualchin, scientific method, Seismology
Posted in Academic misconduct, Italy, Natural Disasters, scientific misconduct | Comments Off on Further twists in the Italian manslaughter trial of seismologists
February 21, 2012
The key requirement for the method of science is scepticism.
The scientific method is to make falsifiable hypotheses and then to check the hypothesis by gathering the evidence to check the falsifiability.
The IPCC and the Global Warming Orthodoxy have been making alarmist predictions for the last 20 years and their hypothesis comes in three parts:
- That global warming is occurring and will continue for at least the next 100 years
- That human activities are the primary cause of the global warming being observed, and
- That man-made emission of carbon-dioxide is the most significant human activity driving climate change.
In the last 20+ years, comparing actual observations show that each one of these 3 parts of this global warming hypothesis is – at best – oversimplified and – at worst – just plain wrong. “Wrong” in the sense that the causality proposed does not exist and that the mechanisms proposed for the causality are incorrect or non-existent. The IPCC predictions are being proved wrong and it is time to ditch the hypothesis.
IPCC predictions falsify global warming hypothesis
The 27th January article in the Wall Street Journal “No Need to Panic about Global Warming” by a number of scientists displaying true scientific scepticism was immediately criticised by members of the Orthodoxy. The original authors now reply to these criticisms in the WSJ:
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Tags: Alarmism, Falsifiable hyptheses, global warming, IPCC, Scientific misconduct, Wall Street Journal
Posted in Alarmism, Climate, Environment, Science | Comments Off on When IPCC model predictions are wrong it is time to ditch the hypothesis
February 20, 2012
Oil production from oil shales in North Dakota is increasing rapidly and the much-heralded “peak” of oil production may have to be postponed. Alarmists will not be pleased.
“Peak Oil” and “Peak Gas” are the points in time where the production of oil and gas respectively reach a peak and then decline to zero. The concept is based on the normal production cycle of an individual well extrapolated to all the oil and gas existing. The fundamental flaw in these hypotheses when trying to apply them to “finite” and exhaustible resources of any product is of course that:
- new sources of the product are discovered
- new extraction technologies enhance what can be recovered from existing sources,
- new technologies make non-viable sources viable
- new technologies allow the synthesis or alternative production of the product (price driven)
- consumption is modified by pricing
Moving peaks
In recent times the development of fracking technology and the discovery of huge deposits of gas-bearing shales together with the discovery of new deep-sea sources of natural gas have pushed the “peak” for gas production beyond the visible horizon and into the distant future (a few hundred years). When – rather than if – methane hydrates become available for gas production, the “peak” will shift further into the future.
In the case of oil there are already many feasible alternatives which are technically feasible but where commercial production by these methods can only be triggered by the sustainable price being higher than the production cost. For example bio-diesel costs are commercial with oil prices above about $70 per barrel but there is a hidden cost in decreased or disrupted food production. Coal liquefaction would need oil prices above $120 per barrel while oil extraction from oil shales and oil sands become commercial at about $90 and $100 respectively. Deep sea wells (new exploration) are increasingly commercial as the price increases.
The alternatives are now coming into play:
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Tags: "Peak" gas, Energy, oil shale, Peak oil, Shale gas
Posted in Alarmism, Energy, Gas, Oil, Oil price | Comments Off on “Peak Oil” hypothesis is following “Peak Gas” into oblivion
February 14, 2012
Jaguar Land-Rover has not merely survived under Tata ownership, it has thrived in a way few would have believed possible in 2008 when Ratan Tata acquired JLR from Ford. It’s profits are soaring and has contributed 78% of the parent company’s profits. And investments and jobs in JLR’s UK operation are growing.
Dow Jones reports:
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Tags: India, Jaguar Land Rover, Range Rover Evoque, Ratan Tata, Tata Motor, UK
Posted in Automobiles, India, UK | Comments Off on Jaguar Land-Rover soars even higher with Tata Motors
February 14, 2012
China has reserves of shale gas at least 50% greater than in the US and is the latest country hopping onto the fracking band-wagon. The Chinese are looking to acquire minority interests in technology companies owning fracking technology in the US and are pushing ahead with their plans for production of shale gas. It seems quite clear now that whenever the global economic recovery finally gets going, the availability of shale gas will be one of the contributing factors. I expect we shall see a boom in exploration for shale gas reserves, in increasing production of shale gas and a boom in gas-fired power generation. There may well be a boom in the sales of gas turbines for power generation within the next 2 -3 years.
“Peak” gas is nowhere in sight. And the fracking technology developments seem to have application even for the recovery of large amounts of gas from methane gas hydrates which are found under deep sea-beds (>500m deep) and even under thick layers of permafrost. While this may take another 10+ years to develop, it makes it even more unlikely that any “peak” gas scenario can develop.
Shale gas reserves: Reuters graphic
Forbes reports:
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Tags: "Peak" gas, China, fracking, Hydraulic fracturing, Natural gas, Shale gas
Posted in Business, China, Energy, Gas | 1 Comment »
February 13, 2012
Lately, I have been delving into the fascinating – but somewhat arcane – fields of paleo-anthropology and genetics and biology and archeology. I find I am constantly trying to create a narrative which hangs together and looking for the little details which can enable me to personalise and identify with the narrative. It is a search for little “hooks” onto which I can hang my “hats” of understanding. And one such “hook” which both anchors and enables my imagination is that when looked at in the perspective of individuals in a particular line of descent, the ancient past is not as intangible and unreachable as it might seem.
from Wikipedia
It is only simple arithmetic but it seems to me quite remarkable that the long journey from the dawn of anatomically modern humans (AMH) some 250,000 years ago, when considered along any particular line of descent, contains not more than some 12,000 individuals. So the right 12,000 names, if I knew them, would suffice to describe all the individuals on any specific line of descent from my origins as an anatomically modern human. Twelve thousand is not so great a number of people. It is less than the population of the little town I live in and it is a number that would be comfortably handled by even quite a small database. I even hear that some people boast more than 12,000 followers on Twitter and others have more than 12,000 “friends” on Facebook! It does not take many minutes to set up an Excel sheet with 12,000 line items, each line then representing one individual on one of my particular lines of descent.
So I have started a new blogsite called 6,000 Generations to provide an outlet for my speculations about individuals from my Ancestral Generations (AG’s).
Tags: AMH, Anatomically modern humans, ancestors, Ancestral Generations, generations, Paleoanthropology
Posted in Anthropology, Archeology, Biology, Evolution | Comments Off on 6,000 generations since Out of Africa
February 13, 2012
Dassault’s success in being selected as the lowest bidder for the Indian MMRCA competition with the Rafale aircraft seems to be having a significant impact in other deals. The Rafale is now the most likely winner of the Brazilian contract for 36 aircraft. The
aggressive pricing by Dassault and the active (and very effective) lobbying by the French government is a potent combination. The Rafale has not yet been sold outside France and the Indian and Brazilian deals are critical for the future export life of the Rafale.
In Brazil the Rafale is competing against Boeing’s F-18 and Saab’s Gripen. Though Saab is also desperately looking for export orders for the Gripen, it is unlikely that it can afford to drop its prices by the levels that Dassault obviously can. Boeing on the other hand is not so dependent on the Brazilian orders and is unlikely to drop its price by very much – especially since they will not wish to disturb the already very high price levels they enjoy for exports to the Middle-East. And that probably leaves the Rafale sitting very pretty.
Svenska Dagbladet reports (freely translated):
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Tags: Boeing, Brazil, Dassault Rafale, India, MMRCA, Rafale, SAAB, Saab Gripen
Posted in Aviation, Brazil, Business, Defense, India | Comments Off on Following Indian MMRCA success, Dassaut’s Rafale also tipped for Brazil
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