Kizuna - The Bond
Kanji of the year – Kizuna
December 24, 2011Kizuna - The Bond
Data fabrication by Hauser and Stapel strengthen the view that psychology is no science
December 23, 2011That psychology is a discipline and a field of study is indisputable. That the study of human (or animal) behaviour is a worthy field and that experimentation and research are well worth pursuing is also obvious. But I am of the view that it is far from being a science. Psychology can be considered to be a pre-science similar to alchemy. And the practitioners of psychology are similar to priests and shamans and witch-doctors and other practitioners of magic. Inevitably the field contains many charlatans.
During 2011 the high profile cases of Marc Hauser and Diederik Stapel where data was faked (and no matter which way the pill is coated they both fabricated data to suit their theories) only reinforces my view that their behaviour was essentially narcissistic and not uncommon in the burgeoning fields of psychology. In both cases inflated egos led to the creation of their “signature” hypotheses followed by the fabrication of data to prove their conclusions – which had already been reached! I am inherently suspicious of psychologists who are supposed scientists but who are seduced by the fame and fortunes of press adulation or tenure or who become Agony Aunts on TV.
Charles Gross writes in The Nation about the Marc Hauser affair and concludes:
Erasmus University again – Scientist agrees not to publish how to create a virulent bird flu virus strain
December 21, 2011
Ron Fouchier
After the recent sacking of Professor Don Poldermans for misconduct, Erasmus Medical Centre is in the news again. This time it is the work of virologist Ron Fouchier with the bird flu virus which is attracting attention:
Dutch Scientist Agrees to Omit Published Details of Highly Contagious Bird Flu Findings
The virologist who created a potentially dangerous, mutant strain of the deadly bird flu virus has agreed to omit methodology details from his published reports on the new strain. The decision came after the U.S. government warned Tuesday that published details of the experiment could be used to create a biological warfare weapon.
Suspicious goings on at Kyoto Prefectural University
December 20, 2011
Hiroaki Matsubara
Hiroaki Matsubara has been Professor of Cardiology and Vascular Regenerative Medicine at Kyoto Prefectural University’s School of Medicine since 2003 and was earlier at Kansai Medical University.
A Japanese investigative website (http://blog.m3.com/Retraction/) has found 12 published articles where manipulation of images is very likely. The suspicious images in the papers published by the Matsubara lab are carefully deconstructed by Abnormal Science in an ongoing series of posts: here, here and here.
Joerg Zwirner of Abnormal Science comments:
(Part 1) Taken together, articles 1-5 are distinguished by the extensive reuse and mutual exchange of data, in particular Western and Northern Blot bands. A single band has been reused up to eigth times in distinct blots in Kidney Int. 2002.
It is apparent that band images from ‘real’ blots may have been digitally reassembled into new blot images pretending to be derived from distinct experimental settings. Since ‘reconfigured blots’ have been densimetrically scanned and the results illustrated in tables and figures, we are presumably confronted with a case of severe data fabrication. …..(Part 2) ….. The images on the left were derived from nude rats, the images on the right from C57BL/J mice. ….
Apparently, histological images have been modified by the exchange/addition of image fragments. According to the figure legend, “five fields from two muscle samples of each animal (n=10) were randomly selected, and capillary density was shown as the capillary/muscle fiber ratio.”
Can we call this practice experimental science or should we term it digital art?
Apparently, anything goes.
(Part 3)….. Of note, the only coauthor on all 12 articles is Hiroaki Matsubara. The sheer scope of the alleged manipulations in these 12 articles is reminiscent of the research misconduct investigations at Borstel/Germany into the work of Prof. Bulfone-Paus and at NUS/Singapore into the work of Prof. Melendez.
The Japanese M3 Blog is run by just one person with its readership mainly among doctors but apparently runs a serious risk of being shut down by legal threats as has happened with an earlier investigative blog.
Kim Jong-Who and the reunification of Korea
December 19, 2011
North Korea’s Dear Leader Kim Jong-il passed away yesterday at the age of 69.
He will be succeeded (probably) by Kim Jong-Un but exactly who he is is a matter of some speculation.
My crystal ball tells me that the reunification of Korea will be a reality within 5 years. The scenario I see is that after much noise and threats the North will ask for help – mainly for food. S Korean industrialists will get heavily involved in these “compassionate” projects and will develop the North Korean market in the interests of their own conglomerates. And then the changes will escalate and will be irreversible.
Nearly all countries and even China publicly support the reunification of the Koreas. But this will be a much more traumatic process than the German reunification – which was not cheap and is not complete even after 20 years. With a population of about 50 million in the South and about 25 million in the North it will inevitably seem like an “acquisition” of the North by the South. While the 25 million is a mouth-watering additional (and captive) market for the industrial conglomerates of the South, the social pressures of what should be seen to be a “merger” appearing to be an acquisition would place an unprecedented and formidable challenge for the politicians of the South. The politicians themselves have a reputation for being in the pockets of the various chaebols and whether they will have the vision and skill to manage the social upheaval remains to be seen.
Though the process may well start within the next 5 years, it will likely take much longer to complete than the German experience.
Kim Jong-Un
Václav Havel – RIP
December 18, 2011Václav Havel, the Czech Republic’s first president after the Velvet Revolution against communist rule, has died at the age of 75. As president, he presided over Czechoslovakia’s transition to democracy and a free-market economy. He oversaw its peaceful 1993 split into the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Havel first came to international fame as a dissident playwright in the 1970s through his involvement with the human rights manifesto Charter 77.
.. Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt wrote on Twitter: “Vaclav Havel was one of the greatest Europeans of our age. His voice for freedom paved (the) way for a Europe whole and free.”
In the early 1990’s I was once trying to sell a district-heating and power plant to be built in Ostrava in the then Czechoslavakia. Eventually the project did not go forward with the split in 1993 into Slovakia and the Czech Republic but I had the opportunity (and the privilege) to once present the project to President Vaclav Havel. He was a playwright by profession but his questions were pointed and precise. I found him remarkably sharp and capable in grasping the finer points in technical and economic arguments.
The Charter 77 declaration is here: Charter 77 declaration
Czeck President Vaclav Klaus (L) as he succeeds outgoing President Vaclav Havel (R) in 2003. SNA File photo
SNA: Havel passed away on Sunday after a protracted respiratory disease, just after turning 75 October 5.
“It was Havel who invited me to the emerging Civic Forum,” said Klaus in an official address Sunday, referring to the platform that led then-Czechoslovakia to democratization away from the communist regime.
The two Vaclavs went on to become arch-rivals in their visions for the development of the Czech Republic.
RIP
Polar bear populations in Canada have increased and are getting to be a menace
December 18, 2011Far from being a species endangered by the politically correct and alarmist view of man made global warming, their numbers are increasing and in some areas of Canada their populations have doubled. They are more frequently having litters of 3 rather than 2 cubs and are ranging further South than they usually do. Easy pickings in town garbage is irresistible and they and are even becoming a menace in some towns.
Canada’s growing polar bear population ‘becoming a problem,’ locals say
…. Despite those problems, the PBSG said it is optimistic that “humans can mitigate the effects of global warming and other threats to the polar bears.”
Not so fast.
According to a U.S. Senate and Public Works Committee report, the “alarm about the future of polar bear decline is based on speculative computer model predictions many decades in the future. Those predictions are being “challenged by scientists and forecasting experts,” said the report.
Those challenges, supported by facts on the ground, including observations from Inuit hunters in the region, haven’t stopped climate fear-mongers at the U.S. Geological Survey from proclaiming that future sea ice conditions “will result in the loss of approximately two-thirds of the world’s current polar bear population by the mid 21st century.”
Such sky-is-falling rhetoric brings smiles to the Inuit population of Canada’s Nunavut Territory. They, too, know how to count, and they claim the bear population is stable or on the rise in their own backyard. Polar bears may be on the decline in some areas, but during their frequent visits to Inuit towns and outposts they rarely decline an easy meal from the local dump or a poorly secured garbage can.
Harry Flaherty, chair of the Nunavut Wildlife Management Board in the capital of Iqaluit, says the polar bear population in the region, along the Davis Strait, has doubled during the past 10 years. He questions the official figures, which are based to a large extent on helicopter surveys.
“Scientists do a quick study one to two weeks in a helicopter, and don’t see all the polar bears. We’re getting totally different stories [about the bear numbers] on a daily basis from hunters and harvesters on the ground,” he says. ….
Dr. Mitchell Taylor, a biologist who has been researching polar bear populations in Canada’s Nunavut Territory for 35 years, seems to agree. “The study estimates from the Iqaluit area agree with those of local hunters, although the accuracy of the counts is doubtful in some areas,” he says. …..
The on-the-ground reports, if accurate, seem to contradict the official story of the beleaguered polar bear. According to the standard theory, warmer temperatures (caused by human CO2 emissions) are shrinking the ice floe, the polar bear’s main hunting ground, forcing populations to compete for a diminishing food supply. Warmer temperatures also are to blame for the loss of thicker “multi-year ice.”
Flaherty and many others disagree with the official story. “We are aware there are changes in the weather, but it is not affecting the daily life of the animals,” he says. “Polar bears hunt in the floe-edge areas, on newly formed ice, and in the fiords in search of baby seals. They don’t hunt in the glaciers [areas of multi-year ice].
“We’re not seeing negative effects on the polar bear population from so-called climate change and receding ice,” he says. He is convinced that some scientists are deliberately “using the polar bear issue to scare people” about global warming, a view widely shared by many Nunavut locals. …..
Well into December and no snow to be shovelled … yet!
December 15, 2011I have just returned home to Sweden after 3 weeks in warmer climes and with some sense of relief that I didn’t have mountains of snow to clear in my drive (as happened last year). Last year I was caught with summer tyres when the early snows arrived but maybe this year it has been kept at bay because I changed to winter tyres before the end of October!!!
Predictions of a very cold winter have not yet materialised – but it is early days yet and I may still have to buy a new snow blower.
But a white Christmas is still on the cards.
It’s only weather after all.
Strong winds in Scotland – wind turbine burns
December 9, 2011It’s well known that wind turbines don’t like strong winds — but a simple shut down is preferable to this:
Ardrossan wind farm in North Ayrshire on 8th December
Climategate 2.0: What’s in the encrypted 200,000 emails?
December 6, 2011While I have been travelling over the last week, the IPCC Durban circus has been performing to dwindling audiences.
The Climategate 1 and 2 emails that have been released so far (about 1,000 + 5,000) are focused mainly on a 3-way nexus between a group of rather mediocre scientists, a few willing (and gullible) reporters and some of the bureaucrats/politicians who have seized on the advantages of fear-mongering.
The mediocrity of the so-called climate scientists is palpable. Michael Mann leaves out data whwnever he feels like it, Phil Jones can’t fathom the intricacies of an Excel table, Tom Wigley (appropriate name) tries to get the PhD’s of his opponents retracted, etc …….. . And all for “The Cause”.
We have seen the blatant lobbying activities of Harrabin and Revkin undermine the reputation of the BBC and the New York Times. At least George Monbiot does not pretend to be anything other than a lobbyist. Harrabin’s pompous defence of his blinkered view is particularly nauseating.
Now we find that the IPCC itself was not averse to falsifying data when it felt the message needed strengthening.
The Global warming fraternity have been busy defending themselves, denying that what they have been engaged in has been bad science or bad journalism. But the politicians and bureaucrats have escaped scrutiny — at least so far.
But there are 200,000 further emails waiting to be un-encrypted by the release of a decrypting phrase (the emails themselves have already been released). And some bureaucrats, some IPCC functionaries, some carbon trading entrepreneurs and some amoral, fear-mongering politicians have to wait their turn.
But they will probably not have to wait very long!!!!
