74 questions from the Trump transition team which are bothering the Department of Energy

December 10, 2016

Whatever one may think of Trump, his transition team’s questions for the Department of Energy are penetrating. They are causing some little worry among the adherents of the man-made global warming religion.

Willis Eschenbach has the list of questions and his comments over at WUWT.

doe-vs-ugly-reality

Man-made climate change (actually the lack of such), vast grants to companies which go bankrupt in the night, jaunts to resorts for climate meetings, prolonging nuclear power …. are all apparently within the sights of the transition team.

The questions and Willis Eschenbach’s comments are reproduced below

Questions for DOE

This memo, as you might expect, is replete with acronyms. “DOE” is the Department of Energy. Here are the memo questions and my comments.

1. Can you provide a list of all boards, councils, commissions, working groups, and FACAs [Federal Advisory Committees] currently active at the Department? For each, can you please provide members, meeting schedules, and authority (statutory or otherwise) under which they were created? 

If I were at DOE, this first question would indeed set MY hair on fire. The easiest way to get rid of something is to show that it was not properly established … boom, it’s gone. As a businessman myself, this question shows me that the incoming people know their business, and that the first order of business is to jettison the useless lumber.

Read the rest of this entry »

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Aleppo almost retaken but Mosul must wait for a while

December 9, 2016

The ongoing downfall of ISIS really only began with the Russian intervention in Syria. Even in Iraq, the gradual success against ISIS only really took hold once the Russians showed the resolve in Syria. It has been a repudiation of the absence of an Obama/Kerry strategy. It has also shown quite clearly that it was the US/NATO/ France/UK/ EU/ Turkey obsession with getting rid of Assad which allowed ISIS to grow and then prevented any effective strategy against ISIS from being implemented.

Now Aleppo and its Al Qaeda/ISIS related rebel groups are on the verge of being driven out by Syrian troops with Russian support. In Mosul what was intended to be a liberation of the city – in time for a Clinton success at the US General election – has progressed much more slowly than expected. It has stalled from time to time and it may not even be complete before Obama leaves office. The retaking of Aleppo cannot strictly be compared with retaking Mosul, but it does reconfirm the differences between first, the resolve of Assad’s Syrian troops and the Iraqi army, and second, the difference between the US and Russian implementation of strategies.

Two Reuters reports today caught my eye:

Syrian army’s Aleppo advance slows, but victory in sight

The Syrian army’s advance in Aleppo slowed on Thursday but a victory was still firmly in sight after President Bashar al-Assad vowed that retaking the city would change the course of the six-year-old war. Russia’s RIA news agency quoted Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as saying the Syrian army, which has captured territory including Aleppo’s historic Old City in recent days, had halted military activity to let civilians leave rebel-held territory. 

The last two weeks have seen rebels driven from most of their territory in what was once Syria’s largest city, the eastern section of which the insurgents have controlled since 2012. Although there are still many rural areas in rebel hands, Aleppo is their last big urban redoubt. The prospect of its fall, following months of government gains elsewhere, has brought Assad closer to victory than at any point since the early months of a civil war that has killed hundreds of thousands and made half of Syrians homeless.

“Aleppo will completely change the course of the battle in all of Syria,” Assad said, speaking in an interview with the Syrian newspaper al-Watan.

Iraqi troops pull out from Mosul hospital after fierce battle

Iraqi troops who briefly seized a Mosul hospital believed to be used as an Islamic State base were forced to withdraw from the site, but managed to establish a base for army tanks nearby after days of fierce back-and-forth fighting, residents said.

The rapid advance into the Wahda neighborhood where the hospital is located marked a change of tactic after a month of fighting in east Mosul in which the army has sought to capture and clear neighborhoods block by block.

The ferocity of the fighting reflects the importance of the army’s push from southeast Mosul towards the center, their deepest advance in a grueling seven-week offensive to crush Islamic State in Iraq’s largest northern city.

The soldiers seized Salam hospital, less than a mile (just over 1 km) from the Tigris river running through central Mosul, on Tuesday but pulled back the next day after they were attacked by six suicide car bombs and “heavy enemy fire”, according to a statement by the U.S.-led coalition supporting Iraqi forces.

Coalition warplanes, at Iraq’s request, also struck a building inside the hospital complex from which the militants were firing machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades, it said.

The soldiers involved in the action are at the spearhead of a U.S.-backed, 100,000-strong coalition of Iraqi forces including the army, federal police, Kurdish peshmerga fighters and mainly Shi’ite Popular Mobilization forces battling to crush Islamic State in Mosul.

Mosul may still take some time but that it will be retaken before too long  seems almost certain.

 

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Fake News at the NYT

December 6, 2016

It is conveniently forgotten – now – by the main-stream media that they are themselves experts in the art of publishing “Fake News”.

Lest we forget, this was one of the articles at the time claiming the presence of WMD in Iraq before the invasion.

NYT:

AFTEREFFECTS: PROHIBITED WEAPONS; Illicit Arms Kept Till Eve of War, An Iraqi Scientist Is Said to Assert, By JUDITH MILLER, APRIL 21, 2003

 

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“Multiculturalism” always gives fractured and segregated societies

December 5, 2016

It seems obvious. Multi-ethnic societies, even with well -developed sub-cultures, work very well under an over-riding common culture. In fact the over-riding common culture is dynamic and takes on parts of the various sub-cultures. But societies with parallel cultures with no over-riding common culture can only give a fractured society. It  prevents any common culture developing and inevitably gives ethnic segregation. For over 5 decades, these parallel cultures have been promoted by the liberal, social-democratic, do-gooding, misguided elite of Europe.

It is not at all surprising that the cities of Europe now have segregated and have no-go ghettos which consider themselves outside of the main society and not subject to the rules and behaviour expected in that society.

A report in the UK commissioned originally by David Cameron only emphasizes what seems obvious.

BBC: 

Public bodies in the UK have too often ignored or condoned divisive and harmful religious practices for fear of being labelled racist, a report says. A government-commissioned review into British social integration found ethnic segregation is growing in some places.

More emphasis should be put on British values, law and history in schools, and immigrants should take an “integration oath”, author Dame Louise Casey said. Communities Secretary Sajid Javid said he will study the findings “closely”.

The year-long Casey Review into the integration of minorities was commissioned by former prime minister David Cameron as part of the government’s efforts to tackle extremism.

The report – which sets out 12 recommendations – received more than 200 submissions from think tanks, community groups and academics. Dame Louise accused the government of falling short of an ambition – set out by then Home Secretary Theresa May five years ago – to do more than any other to promote integration.

The report recommends:

  • Schools should promote British values to help build integration, tolerance, citizenship
  • More English classes for isolated groups
  • A greater mixing among young people through activities such as sport
  • New immigrants could have to swear “an oath of integration with British values and society”
  • Councils should develop a list of indicators to highlight the potential breakdown of integration
  • The government should support a new programme to help improve community cohesion

Dame Louise warned that segregation, deprivation and social exclusion in some areas of Britain have coincided with a growth in what she describes as regressive religious and cultural ideologies. …….. 

Researchers heard Muslim tribunals have made life-changing decisions with no training, leaving women and children often feeling traumatised. Mosques often give women and girls regressive advice about lifestyle and clothes, Dame Louise added. She said too few leaders have dealt with issues, suggesting some fear being labelled racist or losing support in minority communities.

It seems so obvious and yet sanctimonious, self-righteous, group-think has been the hallmark of the liberal/left elite.

I repeat here my post from 2 years ago:

A “society” – to be a society – can be multi-ethnic but not multicultural

A “culture” is both the glue that binds any society of humans and lubricates the interactions within that society. It applies as well to a family or an association or a sports club or a company or a geographic area (say a country). The culture of any sub-society – a sub-culture – must be subordinated to that of the larger society it is  – or wants to be – part of.

Of course one can have – if one wishes – many different cultures within different sub-societies in a single geographic area. But if these sub-cultures are not subordinated to a larger culture then the sub-societies cannot – because it becomes a fatal contradiction – make up any larger society. Multiculturalism dooms that geographical area to inevitably be a splintered and fractured “greater” society – if at all.

The politically correct “multiculturalism” followed in Europe in recent times has effectively preserved and maintained each ethnic group in its own cultural silo and – inanely – made a virtue out of preventing the evolution of any overriding, common culture. This has been the fundamental, “do-gooding” blunder of the socialist/liberal “democrats” all through Europe. Creating a society of the future with a common culture as the glue has been sacrificed in a quest for some imagined God of Many Cultures. For an immigrant – anywhere – how could it be more important to keep the language of his past rather than to learn the language of his future? The “do-gooders” have prioritised living in the past to creating and living in a new future.

Hence Rotherham and Bradford or Kreuzberg or Rosengård or Les Bosquets,

Multi-ethnic communities particularly need both a glue and a lubricating medium. And that has to be an overriding common – new – culture and not some mish-mash, immiscible collection of sub-cultures – each within its own silo, insulated and held separate from all others.

  1. Multi-ethnic societies are inevitable around the world.
  2. A single society has a single culture.
  3. To have many cultures in one area – which are not subordinated to a larger culture (values) – is to exclude a single society.
  4. Promoting multiculturalism is to promote the fracturing of that area into many immiscible (inevitably ethnic) societies.

Multi-ethnicity – especially – requires a mono-culture to be a society at all.

Multi-ethnic and multi-cultural is separatism and serves to ensure that a single society will never be established.

 

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A mealy-mouthed apology from Ban Ki-moon for UN cholera in Haiti

December 4, 2016

The  behaviour of the UN, as an organisation, far too often is a case of when the lowest common behaviour of the  collective prevails. Ban Ki-moon’s term has been distinguished by his cowardice. He makes politically correct noises as told to by his staff. I get the impression that during his term he put his own mind on the shelf and gave up on thinking. About lapses of UN behaviour, – whether about sexual predation by UN troops in Africa or about UN incompetence in Haiti – he has been remarkably circumspect.

Now Ban Ki-moon has made a half-hearted, mealy-mouthed apology about UN behaviour after the outbreak of UN cholera in Haiti but has, again, lacked the courage to address the fact that the UN introduced the cholera.

un-cholera

New York Times:

After six years and 10,000 deaths, the United Nations issued a carefully worded public apology on Thursday for its role in the 2010 cholera outbreak in Haiti and the widespread suffering it has caused since then.

The mea culpa, which Secretary General Ban Ki-moon delivered before the General Assembly, avoided any mention of who brought cholera to Haiti, even though the disease was not present in the country until United Nations peacekeepers arrived from Nepal, where an outbreak was underway.

The peacekeepers lived on a base that often leaked waste into a river, and the first cholera cases in the country appeared in Haitians who lived nearby. Numerous scientists have long argued that the base was the source of the outbreak, but for years United Nations officials refused to accept responsibility.

Even though Mr. Ban’s office has acknowledged that the United Nations had played a role in the outbreak, his apology on Thursday was limited to how the world body responded to the outbreak, not how it started. 

“We simply did not do enough with regard to the cholera outbreak and its spread in Haiti,” Mr. Ban said on Thursday. “We are profoundly sorry about our role.” ………

……. The United Nations has not yet met its promise to eradicate cholera once and for all from Haiti, though Mr. Ban’s aides said on Thursday that they were close to raising the $200 million they say they need to fix Haiti’s water and sanitation system and treat Haitians for cholera. Nor has the United Nations yet raised an additional $200 million it wants for “material assistance” to families and communities that have suffered; donor nations have not yet come forward with the funds.

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“Dalai Lama to meet with Donald Trump”

December 3, 2016

That headline hasn’t been written yet but don’t be surprised if it happens,  and soon, sometime before Trump’s inauguration.

Trump needs to rile China as much as possible while minimising any real retaliatory actions. What he does now, before his inauguration, can only lead to threats of retaliation but not any real actions. His mere acceptance of a call from Taiwan’s President has caused large waves. Something the US administration for 40 years has not had the courage to do. Maybe I attribute too much sense to Trump’s team, but I suspect that they have calculated quite well. They have thrown the current Obama administration into a bit of a spin and rendered them effectively impotent in their China posture.

The time before his inauguration is is a unique opportunity for Trump to make statements, meet people and indicate actions which he can later walk away from. It is the time for outrageous trial balloons. Few President-elects have had the nerve to do this before. I note his skillful, and almost Machiavellian, use of the selection process of “possible” members of his administration to confuse and mislead a hostile press.

The liberal/left press still don’t get it. Democracy is all about populism. It may be a trifle stupid but that is what democracy is about. The liberal “elite” – or any elite – cannot prevail in a democracy. They can no longer expect to be blindly followed by the unthinking plebs. They need to court popularity. I suspect there has been a lot more real thinking (whether by heart or by brain) by the Trump voters in deciding to vote for him than those who blindly followed their “elite” leaders in voting for Clinton.

Trump needs, while minimising the consequences, to rile China, India, France, Germany, Mexico, Canada and a few other “socialist” countries. He did Mexico during the campaign. He continued with India with his apparently effusive telephone conversation with Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan. Now he’s done China. The French/German/British investment in – and creation of  – some of the rebel groups now losing in Aleppo has been part of the US strategy disaster in Syria. A losing strategy that Trump will want to move away from. And that he will do by means of contacts with Putin.

It is more unlikely but I would not put it past him to make contact with Iran.

But meeting with the Dalai Lama is an easy decision to take.

Dalai Lama impersonating Trump (Good Morning Britain)

Dalai Lama impersonating Trump (Good Morning Britain)

 

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Emerging markets outlook for 2017

November 25, 2016

Focus Economics has published its emerging markets prediction for 2017.

  1. Latin America | External shocks to undermine potential growth in the region
  2. Asia | Growth will benefit from rising global demand and resilient domestic dynamics
  3. MENA | Higher oil prices promise to boost growth in 2017
  4. Eastern Europe | Economic conditions set to improve in 2017
  5. Sub-Saharan Africa | Weak growth urges policy action
Focus Economics: Emerging Markets outlook 2017

Focus Economics: Emerging Markets outlook 2017

It is in Asia and a recovering Russia that there may be some drive:

Asia | Growth will benefit from rising global demand and resilient domestic dynamics

  • China’s still resilient economic growth and the ongoing reform momentum in India will prompt the East and South Asia (ESA) region to expand a strong 6.0% in 2017, which will represent a slight deceleration from the expected 6.1% increase in 2016. Meanwhile, in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), an improvement in the region’s external sector should support quicker growth along with resilient household spending. ASEAN will expand 4.8% in 2017, up from 2016’s 4.6% increase.
  • Inflationary pressures are expected to strengthen across Asia next year as a result of a low base effect, the gradual increase in commodity prices and scheduled subsidy cuts and tax hikes in some economies. While inflation in ESA will increase mildly from 2.4% in 2016 to 2.5% next year, the pick-up in ASEAN will be more pronounced and inflation is expected to rise from 2.3% in 2016 to 3.2% in 2017.
  • While economic growth in the region will benefit from a mild improvement in global demand and resilient domestic dynamics, some clouds are gathering on the horizon. Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential elections could disrupt the global economy if he implements his proposed protectionist policies. This has the potential to hit growth in the region, given the importance of the external sector for most Asian economies. Also, a more aggressive monetary policy normalization by the U.S. Federal Reserve could heighten volatility in the financial and exchange rate markets in the region.

………

Eastern Europe | Economic conditions set to improve in 2017

  • The stabilization of commodities prices and the economic recovery in Russia, the region’s largest economy, should support a return to growth in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region next year. GDP is seen growing 1.5%, after falling 0.3% in 2016. However, geopolitical risks and monetary tightening in the U.S. are casting a shadow on the outlook.
  • In Central & Eastern Europe (CEE), steady domestic demand should fuel a healthy 3.0% growth this year and next. Meanwhile, dynamics in South-Eastern Europe (SEE) will be dominated by escalating political uncertainty and security concerns in Turkey and the ongoing debt saga in Greece. GDP in SEE is seen expanding 2.8% in 2017, slightly above the 2.7% projected for this year.
  • Price pressures in the CIS region should fall steadily throughout 2017, supported by a tightening bias by most central banks in the region, and our panel sees inflation at 5.6% in 2017. For CEE, inflation is expected to rise in 2017 as the effect of low oil prices wanes, with our analysts projecting average inflation of 1.5%. Meanwhile, SEE will see a slight increase in price pressures on the back of rising inflation in Greece and Romania.
  • External risks to the Eastern European economy are high heading into 2017. The surprise outcome of the U.S. presidential election along with tense Brexit negotiations will increase volatility in the financial markets and weigh on currencies and assets across the region. In addition, an expected increase in U.S. interest rates has the potential to tighten global liquidity and spark capital outflows. For Russia, however, Trump’s election is seen as positive and some analysts speculate that he could end sanctions against Russia due to his close ties with the country. 

Maybe the financial crisis which started in 2008 is finally coming to an end. Eight years is long enough.

I blame the EU and the lack of drive from Barack Obama, not for the start of the crisis, but for prolonging the length of time it has lasted. But one reaction for the political cowardice of the last 8 years (some would say 20 years) is the disenchantment with liberal/social democratic, politically correct, elite and  “establishment” politics.

The disenchantment is showing itself to be a global phenomenon.

 

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Cowardly French court bans video of smiling Downs syndrome kids because it may upset women after abortions

November 24, 2016

It is political correctness gone mad.

You might as well ban children with Downs syndrome from smiling. Or why not just order all Downs syndrome kids from being out in the open. After all they might be seen by a woman soon after having had an abortion.

“the freedom of expression of individuals with Down syndrome must bow to the right to abortion.”

The only logical conclusion is that in this French court’s eyes, a child with Downs syndrome really should not be alive.

The Stream:

French Court Upholds Ban on Video of Happy Children With Down Syndrome

The court claims the video might ‘disturb the conscience’ of post-abortive women.

Video of Downs syndrome children banned in France

Video of Downs syndrome children banned in France

An award-winning video entitled “Dear Future Mom” featuring happy children and young adults with Down syndrome is banned from French television.

France’s Conseil d’État (State Council) rejected an appeal to lift the ban on November 10, declaring that seeing happy people with Down syndrome was “likely to disturb the conscience of women who had lawfully made different personal life choices” — in other words, women who chose to abort their unborn babies diagnosed with the genetic disorder.

In a press release, Jean-Marie Le Mene, president of the Jérôme Lejeune Foundation, which partnered with other organizations to produce the video and appealed the Higher Council of Audiovisual’s ban, said the court’s decision indicates that “the freedom of expression of individuals with Down syndrome must bow to the right to abortion.”

A cowardly court! An unjust court!

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Reading University shows Antarctic ice increased over last 3 decades and is largely unchanged over 100 years

November 24, 2016

You cannot have “global” warming which applies differently to different parts of the globe. If man-made CO2 is having any significant effect on “global” temperature it must be an effect that is visible in both the Arctic and the Antarctic. Even if all the Arctic ice melts but the Antarctic ice does not then “global” warming is clearly not “global”.

A new study by Reading University shows that Antarctic ice is largely unchanged over 100 years and increasing over the last 3 decades. The man-made “global” warming theory is just not possible with these results.

Research article
21 Nov 2016

Estimating the extent of Antarctic summer sea ice during the Heroic Age of Antarctic Exploration

Tom Edinburgh1,a and Jonathan J. Day11Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, UK
acurrently at: Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK

Received: 13 Apr 2016 – Published in The Cryosphere Discuss.: 29 Apr 2016
Revised: 11 Sep 2016 – Accepted: 18 Sep 2016 – Published: 21 Nov 2016

Abstract. In stark contrast to the sharp decline in Arctic sea ice, there has been a steady increase in ice extent around Antarctica during the last three decades, especially in the Weddell and Ross seas. In general, climate models do not to capture this trend and a lack of information about sea ice coverage in the pre-satellite period limits our ability to quantify the sensitivity of sea ice to climate change and robustly validate climate models. However, evidence of the presence and nature of sea ice was often recorded during early Antarctic exploration, though these sources have not previously been explored or exploited until now. We have analysed observations of the summer sea ice edge from the ship logbooks of explorers such as Robert Falcon Scott, Ernest Shackleton and their contemporaries during the Heroic Age of Antarctic Exploration(1897–1917), and in this study we compare these to satellite observations from the period 1989–2014, offering insight into the ice conditions of this period, from direct observations, for the first time. This comparison shows that the summer sea ice edge was between 1.0 and 1.7° further north in the Weddell Sea during this period but that ice conditions were surprisingly comparable to the present day in other sectors.


Citation: Edinburgh, T. and Day, J. J.: Estimating the extent of Antarctic summer sea ice during the Heroic Age of Antarctic Exploration, The Cryosphere, 10, 2721-2730, doi:10.5194/tc-10-2721-2016, 2016.
Eurekalert writes:

Ice observations recorded in the ships’ logbooks of explorers such as the British Captain Robert Scott and Ernest Shackleton and the German Erich von Drygalski have been used to compare where the Antarctic ice edge was during the Heroic Age of Antarctic Exploration (1897-1917) and where satellites show it is today.

The study, published in the European Geosciences Union journal The Cryosphere, suggests Antarctic sea ice is much less sensitive to the effects of climate change than that of the Arctic, which in stark contrast has experienced a dramatic decline during the 20th century. ……

……. Jonathan Day, who led the study, said: “The missions of Scott and Shackleton are remembered in history as heroic failures, yet the data collected by these and other explorers could profoundly change the way we view the ebb and flow of Antarctic sea ice.

“We know that sea ice in the Antarctic has increased slightly over the past 30 years, since satellite observations began. Scientists have been grappling to understand this trend in the context of global warming, but these new findings suggest it may not be anything new.

“If ice levels were as low a century ago as estimated in this research, then a similar increase may have occurred between then and the middle of the century, when previous studies suggest ice levels were far higher.”

The new study published in The Cryosphere is the first to shed light on sea ice extent in the period prior to the 1930s, and suggests the levels in the early 1900s were in fact similar to today, at between 5.3 and 7.4 million square kilometres. Although one region, the Weddell Sea, did have a significantly larger ice cover.

Published estimates suggest Antarctic sea ice extent was significantly higher during the 1950s, before a steep decline returned it to around 6 million square kilometres in recent decades.

The research suggests that the climate of Antarctica may have fluctuated significantly throughout the 20th century, swinging between decades of high ice cover and decades of low ice cover, rather than enduring a steady downward trend.

 

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“Adjusting” temperatures is a political exercise in a politicised “science”

November 24, 2016

To pretend that politicised science does not exist is to be naive. To state as a religious conviction that man-made CO2 is causing global warming is little different to the religiously expressed beliefs by politically correct media that Brexit would not happen or that Trump could not win. Climate “scientists” and their gullible followers need to remember that all beliefs can only exist in the space of ignorance.

I dislike algorithms for “calculating” an artificial “global temperature” by “adjusting” and “weighting” raw data to suit pre-conceived notions of what final result should be. It gets worse when the “adjustments” about past temperatures are variable and are themselves “adjusted” every year. The reports about every year being hotter than the last are actually just a statement that “adjustments” every year are greater than the last.

I reproduce Tony Heller’s post about the US temperatures in realclimatescience:

NOAA Adjustments Correlate Exactly To Their Confirmation Bias

Posted on November 21, 2016 by tonyheller

Thermometers show the US cooling since about 1920, but NOAA massively cools the past to create the appearance of a warming trend.

screen-shot-2016-11-21-at-9-31-19-am

These adjustments make a spectacular hockey stick of data tampering.

screen-shot-2016-11-21-at-9-36-49-am

When plotted against atmospheric CO2, the correlation is almost perfect.  NOAA is tampering with the data exactly to match their theory.

screen-shot-2016-11-21-at-9-26-17-am

 

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