Posts Tagged ‘daily deaths’

In Sweden, coronavirus deaths are almost invisible among average daily deaths

April 12, 2020

In response to great demand Sweden’s Statistics Central Bureau (SCB) has published daily deaths (all causes) data for 2015 – 2020.

For the month of March 2020, the daily total deaths do not appear much different than the average for 2015-2019. The average daily death toll is about 250 (+/- 30). The coronavirus has been responsible (so far) for about 30 fatalities per day but there is some probable offset due to reduction of deaths from some other causes. During March there is no visible spike in total daily deaths that can be attributed to the coronavirus.

Daily Deaths March 2020 compared to average 2015-2019

We can never know what it would have been without a lockdown. What is visible during March is that with the voluntary lockdown in place, fatalities by all causes have not increased significantly.

In a few months, when the outbreak has been brought under control, I will not be surprised if we will be asking if the level of economic disruption was worth it.

 

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Daily death curves

April 12, 2020

The Worldometers website is the most comprehensive and up-to-date site I have found. I believe the global data they display is about as good as can be for any public database. The John Hopkins dashboard is a lot slower and not as user friendly. I find the WHO site is not as useful as the Worldometers site.

Worldometers:

We collect and process data around the clock, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Multiple updates per minute are performed on average by our team of analysts and researchers who validate the data from an ever-growing list of over 5,000 sources under the constant solicitation of users who alert us as soon as an official announcement is made anywhere around the world.

Sources and Methods

Our sources include Official Websites of Ministries of Health or other Government Institutions and Government authorities’ social media accounts. Because national aggregates often lag behind the regional and local health departments’ data, an important part of our work consists in monitoring thousands of daily reports released by local authorities. Our multilingual team also monitors press briefings’ live streams throughout the day. Occasionally, we can use a selection of leading and trusted news wires with a proven history of accuracy in communicating the data reported by Governments in live press conferences before it is published on the Official Websites.

I think daily death curves for each country are a better guide to the state of the pandemic than the number of infections (which are contingent on the testing policy being followed).

In the progression of the coronavirus, it would seem that Italy lies about 9 days before Spain, 13 days before the UK and 17 days before the US.

 

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