Posts Tagged ‘MH370’

MH370: One year on and those who know still aren’t telling

March 8, 2015

Some few do know what happened to MH370 a year ago.

My post from April 13th last year speculating that this was a state sponsored and highly successful hijacking, is just as valid or invalid as it was then. There has been much speculation since but no new, certain, evidence has appeared. In fact even the “handshake” tracking which places the plane in the Southern Indian Ocean turns out to be fairly speculative in itself.

Whatever happened to MH370 was no accident. In one year there has been no evidence to alter my belief that this was the most successful hijacking and “disappearing” of a commercial airline and its 239 passengers and crew. And the objective – which was clearly achieved – was to prevent some passengers or cargo or both from reaching Beijing.

MH370: Emirates CEO suggests plane’s flight was controlled, October 11, 2014

MH370: Further indications of a deliberate event to prevent technology reaching Beijing, June 22, 2014

MH370: Very short preliminary report issued – could have been “laundered, May 2, 2014

MH370: The most successful, state-sponsored hijacking ever?, April 13, 2014

MH370: The altitude excursion which could have rendered most unconscious, April 1, 2014

A deliberate excursion?

The calculations leading to the search area are speculative

 

 

MH 370: Anything but an “accident” as Malaysian government abandons reason

January 30, 2015

I have been traveling for the last few days and blogging will be light for a few days yet.

Yesterday the Malaysian government declared the vanishing of MH370 to have been an “accident”!

There are many theories, but the one thing that is certain is that this was no accident. It is entirely impossible that the aircraft could have changed direction and flown westwards or that it could have performed its altitude changes by “accident”.

The Malaysian government has done many, many silly things, but this announcement abandons reason. It also assumes that all the world is a fool.

Deliberate action was involved.

QZ8501: All presumed lost but why no wreckage yet?

December 29, 2014

Air Asia’s QZ8501, Airbus A320-200 most probably flew into a violent thunderstorm which it could not or did not avoid and suffered a catastrophic structural failure. This is plausible and pilots avoid violent thunderstorms if at all possible. Flying through a storm is most inadvisable and usually aircraft fly around them. Just this year, this could be the third aircraft (the others were cargo aircraft) to have been lost to a thunderstorm near the equator. But why no wreckage yet?

The pilots had requested permission to increase altitude from 32,000 to 38,000 feet to avoid bad weather but this change was denied by air traffic control presumably because of other traffic on this busy route. The denial is not unusual but the storm may have had a much greater vertical spread than expected. Thunderstorms in the Java Sea can sometimes have plumes (towers) extending up to 50,000 metres feet. In emergencies, commercial pilots are trained to first control the plane, then to navigate and only then to communicate. So the lack of a distress signal – is worrying – but not a reason to rush to conspiracy theories or to invoke magic. It does suggest that whatever happened happened fast. There were 23 no-show passengers booked on the plane but this also does not seem extraordinary for a flight leaving in the early hours.

BBC: He said the captain had more than 20,500 flight hours, almost 7,000 of them with AirAsia. The flight left Surabaya in eastern Java at 05:35 local time (22:35 GMT) and was due to arrive in Singapore at 08:30 (00:30 GMT).

The missing jet had requested a “deviation” from the flight path to avoid thick storm clouds, AirAsia said. Indonesia’s transport ministry said the pilot had asked permission to climb to 38,000ft (11,000m).

Ministry official Djoko Murjatmodjo said the request “could not be approved at that time due to traffic, there was a flight above, and five minutes later [flight QZ8501] disappeared from radar”.

Map

QZ5801 planned route

This morning one of the rescue officials said that the aircraft was probably at the bottom of the sea. But I have difficulty to reconcile a “catastrophic failure” with the absence of any wreckage. The weather is still bad in the most likely location. Perhaps more time is needed. The chance of survival for the 162 people on board is diminishing very fast.

The loss of 162 lives is tragedy enough but the thought of another “vanishing act” like MH370 without any wreckage or any other physical evidence is somehow even more disturbing. Can there be a catastrophic failure without the plane breaking up into smaller pieces where some would surely float? To be “at the bottom of the sea” would surely need that the aircraft went down largely intact or in very large pieces. Then why no “distress call”? Even an implausible lightning strike which disabled all power instantaneously may have caused the plane to descend very fast but it should not have disabled all communication devices.

Only questions about QZ8501 right now. But almost every question about MH370 is still open. The loss of life is deeply tragic. That Malaysian aviation could be singled out to be hit by 3 tragedies in one year is perplexing.  But the idea that the open questions will never be answered is terrifying.

 

AirAsia Flight QZ8501 goes missing

December 28, 2014

It is a dismal and tragic year for Malaysian aviation. If I were superstitious 2014 would be a cursed year.

After MH30 and MH17, Air Asia’s QZ8501 has gone missing on its way from Surabaya to Singapore. AirAsia is a Malaysian low-cost airline headquartered near Kuala Lumpur.

UPDATE: QZ8501 is believed to have crashed at the location 03.22.46 South and 108.50.07 East, in waters around 80 to 100 nautical miles from Belitung. Not confirmed.


Reuters:

Indonesia’s air force was searching for an AirAsia plane carrying 162 people that went missing on Sunday after the pilots asked to change course to avoid bad weather during a flight from the Indonesian city of Surabaya to Singapore.

Indonesia AirAsia Flight QZ8501, an Airbus 320-200, lost contact with Jakarta air traffic control at 6:17 a.m. (6.17 p.m. EST), officials said.

“The aircraft was on the submitted flight plan route and was requesting deviation due to enroute weather before communication with the aircraft was lost,” the airline said in a statement.

No distress signal had been sent, said Joko Muryo Atmodjo, air transportation director at Indonesia’s transport ministry. Indonesia AirAsia said there were 155 passengers and seven crew on board. It said 156 were Indonesian, with three from South Korea and one each from Singapore, Malaysia and France.

MH 370 to be declared “lost” and search to end by year-end

November 12, 2014

It has been over 8 months now since MH370 vanished on March 8th with all its 239 crew and passengers.

That the mystery continues, in these times of almost universal surveillance, where even distant comets passing by Mars can be observed in real time, is unfathomable. To say that black magic was involved is almost as irrefutable as any other proposed explanation. But it was not black magic. It was almost certainly a “black operation”, an “engineered affair”. Somebody knows what happened. And what I find equally disturbing is that the world can so easily put the whole unexplained, chilling episode aside and move on.

The relatives of the victims and the unfortunate Malaysian Airlines cannot find any kind of closure. But by the end of the year the plane could be officially declared “lost” and that would allow the search to be ended. That would allow Malaysian Airlines to make “final” compensation and then calculate a liability cap and draw a financial line.

NZ HeraldSpeaking to The New Zealand Herald today, the airline’s commercial director, Hugh Dunleavy said that it was waiting for the aircraft to be officially declared lost after going missing in March with 239 people on board. It is thought to have flown into the Indian Ocean off the coast of Western Australia. 

The Australian and Malaysian governments were working together to set a date to formally announce the loss of MH370 and that was likely to be set by the end of the year.

“We don’t have a final date but once we’ve had an official loss recorded we can work with the next of kin on the full compensation payments for those families.” ….. 

Dunleavy said the Montreal Convention had set the ceiling on compensation at around US$175,000 although passengers could take legal action to pursue higher payments.

“We will ensure we do compensate them for the loss of their loved ones through our insurers,” he said. ….. 

“We are trying to hurry (compensation)it up as much as we can but some of these things are outside the scope of the airline itself. If they’re not happy with the compensation then they seek legal advice and move ahead, then once they come in our people will assess them and respond.”

Paying out relatives of those killed aboard MH17 over the Ukraine was more straightforward.

“We know exactly what happened with that aircraft and we can move ahead with the full compensation of family members aboard that aircraft,” Dunleavy said at the end of his visit which included meetings with travel agents and the tourism bodies.

I can understand the Commercial Director’s frustration at not knowing what happened and not being able to assess the final liability. Dr. Hugh Noel Dunleavy is the Head of Network, Alliance & Planning and Director of Commercial at Malaysian Airlines and was appointed in January 2012.

 

MH370: Theoretical Search Area

Even the calculations of the “theoretical search area” could just be a red herring. Nothing is believable and therefore everything is possible.

MH370: Emirates CEO suggests plane’s flight was controlled

October 11, 2014

“Something is not right here and we need to get to the bottom of it.”

Sir Timothy Clark, CEO Emirates Airways

My “least implausible” theory about the disappearance of MH370, seven months ago, is that it was an engineered and highly successful hijack, by an unknown state intelligence agency, who incapacitated crew and passengers, took control of the aircraft and brought it down without trace, to prevent some of the cargo and some of the passengers from ever reaching China.

Now support for this – or some similar – explanation comes from an unlikely quarter within the heart of the airline industry. Tim Clark has been in the industry since 1972, was recently knighted and has been with Emirates since 1985. He became CEO in 2003 and is also President of the Emirates Foundation.

news.com:

Now, seven months after the Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 vanished en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing, Sir Tim has cast doubt on the official version of events.

In an extraordinary interview with German magazine Der Spiegel, he challenges the Australian Transport Safety Bureau’s conclusion this week that MH370 flew south over the Indian Ocean on autopilot for five hours until it ran out of fuel and fell out of the sky, forcing 239 passengers into a watery grave. 

Instead, Sir Tim believes it is far more likely that “MH370 was under control, probably until the very end”, questions the veracity of the “so-called electronic satellite ‘handshake’” used by analysts to pinpoint the probable crash site and insists the mysterious cargo in the hold (removed from the manifest by Malaysian authorities) is a crucial clue to the puzzle.

That an aircraft the size of MH370 can simply disappear without a trace, “not even a seat cushion” was downright “suspicious”, he said.

Seven months since 239 passengers and crew just vanished on a modern jet liner!

This was not an accident. The complete lack of any evidence suggests that “fingerprints have been wiped”. The so-called “electronic handshakes” give a hint of being fabricated to suit a story.

These are extracts of his interview with Der Spiegel:

His view of the vanished Malaysian Airlines flight MH 370 is a provocative one. The plane that disappeared was a Boeing 777 and Emirates operates 127 such aircraft, more than any other airline in the world. ….

MH 370 remains one of the great aviation mysteries. Personally, I have the concern that we will treat it as such and move on. At the most, it might then make an appearance on National Geographic as one of aviation’s great mysteries. We mustn’t allow this to happen. We must know what caused that airplane to disappear. …. 

My own view is that probably control was taken of that airplane. ….. It’s anybody’s guess who did what. We need to know who was on the plane in the detail that obviously some people do know. We need to know what was in the hold of the aircraft. And we need to continue to press all those who were involved in the analysis of what happened for more information. I do not subscribe to the view that the Boeing 777, which is one of the most advanced in the world and has the most advanced communication platforms, needs to be improved with the introduction of some kind of additional tracking system. MH 370 should never have been allowed to enter a non-trackable situation. …..

The transponders are under the control of the flight deck. These are tracking devices, aircraft identifiers that work in the secondary radar regime. If you turn off that transponder in a secondary radar regime, that particular airplane disappears from the radar screen. That should never be allowed to happen. Irrespective of when the pilot decides to disable the transponder, the aircraft should be able to be tracked. …… The other means of constantly monitoring the progress of an aircraft is ACARS (Eds. Note: Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System). It is designed primarily for companies to monitor what its planes are doing. We use it to monitor aircraft systems and engine performance. At Emirates, we track every single aircraft from the ground, every component and engine of the aircraft at any point on the planet. Very often, we are able to track systemic faults before the pilots do. ….. Disabling it is no simple thing and our pilots are not trained to do so. But on flight MH 370, this thing was somehow disabled, to the degree that the ground tracking capability was eliminated. …….

I’m still struggling to come up with a reason why a pilot should be able to put the transponder into standby or to switch it off. MH 370 was, in my opinion, under control, probably until the very end.

why would the pilots spend five hours heading straight towards Antarctica?

If they did!

I am saying that all the “facts” of this particular incident must be challenged and examined with full transparency. We are nowhere near that. There is plenty of information out there, which we need to be far more forthright, transparent and candid about. Every single second of that flight needs to be examined up until it, theoretically, ended up in the Indian Ocean — for which they still haven’t found a trace, not even a seat cushion. …. 

Our experience tells us that in water incidents, where the aircraft has gone down, there is always something. We have not seen a single thing that suggests categorically that this aircraft is where they say it is, apart from this so-called electronic satellite “handshake,” which I question as well. …..

There hasn’t been one overwater incident in the history of civil aviation — apart from Amelia Earhart in 1939 — that has not been at least 5 or 10 percent trackable. But MH 370 has simply disappeared. For me, that raises a degree of suspicion. I’m totally dissatisfied with what has been coming out of all of this.

Somehow, it feels like a betrayal as the event is labelled an “unsolved mystery” and the world just moves on. Not just a betrayal of the 239 passengers and crew and their families but of the innate sense of human curiosity and questing.

Six months since MH370 was “vanished” by somebody

September 8, 2014

Today it is 6 months since MH370 disappeared.

A most astonishing vanishing act and not a hint of an explanation in sight. The Vanishing has already passed into the category of “Great Mysteries of the Past”. All “plausible” explanations have been exhausted and only the implausible remain. MH370 has been overtaken by the shooting down of MH 17.

But it is MH370 which I find somehow very disturbing. Maybe because the only implausibly possible explanation is of a covert, callous action by a State or State agencies. One of the many theories even has it that “the plane purported to be MH17 at the crash site in Ukraine was actually MH370. Both aircraft were the same model but MH17 was a 1997 version as opposed to MH370, which Malaysia Airlines took ownership of in May 2002.”

But no explanation can provide any real solace for the relatives of the 239 passengers and crew who vanished (and died).

The search goes on.

Thursday, August 28

Malaysia Reaffirms Commitment to Search for MH370

Signs MOU with Australia for ongoing collaboration

…. Today, Malaysia signed an MOU with Australia which provides the framework and broad parameters for cooperation in the search for MH370. This forms an important part of our existing cooperation with Australia and reaffirms Malaysia’s commitment towards the search. 
 
In this regard Malaysia will provide the necessary financial contribution towards the search effort and match Australia’s commitment. The combination of undersea search equipment, world-class experts and cutting edge technology that is being used will be our best chance of finding MH370 and we are hopeful in our prospects of doing so. …..

Commercial airlines avoiding eastern Ukraine airspace as Malaysian 17 probably shot down

July 17, 2014

It looks like MH17 with 295 passengers and crew has been shot down over eastern Ukraine near the Russian border.

By the Russians? Unlikely.

By Russian-leaning rebels? possibly with a Russian ground to air missile.

By the Ukrainians? by air-to-air or ground-to-air missiles? Not unthinkable.

In the meantime commercial airlines are now avoiding this airspace as – for example – Thai Airways TG921 and others are just doing. There seem to be many aircraft avoiding the area right now.

TG921 and commercial airlines avoiding eastern Ukraine

TG921 and commercial airlines avoiding eastern Ukraine

Considering the number of commercial aircraft in the area, it is particularly poignant that after MH370, it is another Malaysian airliner which has been shot down. And MH370 itself disappeared due to hostile action.

MH370: Further indications of a deliberate event to prevent technology reaching Beijing

June 22, 2014

It has now been over 3 months since MH370 vanished without trace.

My theory from two months ago about the disappearance was that this was a deliberate, probably state-sponsored, very well executed and successful  action to prevent certain technology, some sensitive hardware and some particular technical people from reaching Beijing.

There were 20 Chinese software experts on board. They had been working for Freescale Technology in Texas on technology which could convert ordinary aircraft into “stealth” aircraft. Patents had been applied for but have not yet been granted. MH 370 was carrying a “large” package as a Chinese diplomatic package and was therefore not subject to any search or security procedures. The speculative, uncorroborated but plausible and most parsimonious explanation becomes:

  1. The Chinese software engineers “stole” technology on behalf of the Chinese government from Freescale.
  2. Freescale was slow in picking up the theft and alerting the authorities.
  3. US intelligence and security agencies were unable to prevent the engineers and their package from reaching Malaysia.
  4. They were also unable to prevent the engineers boarding MH370 bound for Beijing or the precious cargo from being loaded as diplomatic cargo.
  5. The operational arm of a US Security Agency took the decision – without recourse to their political masters – to prevent the engineers and their cargo from reaching Beijing, at any cost.
  6. ………. 

It is now reported in this “NextNews” video that the patent in question was granted 4 days after the flight disappeared!! The patent was in the names of 4 Chinese engineers and their employer Freescale which happens to be owned by Rothschild. All the 4 inventors of record were on board and with their deaths all the patent rights now revert to the company. While this report implies a financial motive, I don’t think that holds. In corporate patents all the exploitation rights are usually with the corporate entity and not with the individual inventors. The individual inventors may have had some little share in any eventual revenues but these would have been (relatively) quite small. What was actually achieved was that none of the inventors or their cargo or the knowledge in their heads reached Beijing. And that remains the most likely motive. The timing of the granting of the patent – 4 days later – when there could no longer be any question of ownership is also suggestive.

It still seems to me that the most parsimonious explanation for the vanishing is that somebody wanted to prevent the Freescale engineers and their diplomatically protected cargo  from reaching Beijing. They succeeded completely and also in obliterating all traces of their actions. All the other deaths were merely collateral damage.

 h/t: Nessan

MH370: Nothing expected to be found as search is outsourced

June 5, 2014

On Saturday it is three months since MH370 vanished. It is becoming just a historical footnote as the search efforts are gradually wound-down. Still nothing – not a scrap – has been found and the mystery continues. And now Australia – as the lead country – is going to outsource the search. But they are clearly not expecting anything to be found; The intensified search will begin in August 2014 and is expected to take up to 12 months, depending on weather conditions”.

Any theory which cannot be disproved, no matter how implausible – remains possible. But I have seen nothing to shift from my view that the plane was deliberately destroyed and “disappeared”.

In the tender documents the Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB)  calls for a search area which will be around 60,000 sq. km  and the contractor has to submit plans for searching 5,000 sq. km every 25 days.

The ATSB has issued a press release:

Engaged as a prime contractor, the company will provide the expertise, equipment and vessel(s) necessary to undertake an intensified underwater search for the missing Boeing 777 aircraft in the defined zone in the southern Indian Ocean.

While the precise search zone is currently being established by an international search strategy working group, it is expected that the successful tenderer will search an area up to 60,000 square kilometres based on the ‘seventh handshake’ arc where the aircraft last communicated with the Inmarsat satellite. Definition of the search zone will be finalised within two to three weeks.

The successful tenderer will localise, positively identify and map the debris field of MH370 using specialist equipment such as towed and autonomous underwater vehicles with mounted sonar and/or optical imaging systems.

The intensified search will begin in August 2014 and is expected to take up to 12 months, depending on weather conditions. The successful tenderer will use the data from a bathymetric survey (already underway) to navigate the search zone, which has water depth between 1000 and 6000 metres.

The search vessel(s) used by the prime contractor may also be coordinated with other vessels also undertaking search activities in the search zone on behalf of other countries. …….. 

At the request of the Malaysian Government, the ATSB is leading the search for missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370.

This request for tender has now appeared for tenders to be submitted by the end of June.

Request for Tender for Provision for Services relating to the Search for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370

On 8 March 2014, a Boeing 777 aircraft, operated as Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, carrying 12 Malaysian crew members and 227 passengers, disappeared during a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.

Through the analysis of available satellite, radar and other data, it has been determined that MH370 is likely to be in the southern Indian Ocean within Australia’s search and rescue zone.

In accordance with Annex 13 to the Convention on International Civil Aviation, Malaysia, as the State of registry for the aircraft, is the State conducting the investigation into the occurence involving the disappearance of MH370. In accordance with the provisions of Annex 13, Australia as the State closest to the likley location of MH370, has offered its continuing assistance.

It has been decided between Malaysia and Australia, that Australia will lead the search for MH370.  This arrangement includes Australia contracting the commercial services required to undertake the search operation.

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) is the Australian agency responsible for the seafloor search.  The ATSB is seeking to contract services to:

  • search for and locate MH370 within a defined search area on the seafloor; and
  • if located, map and obtain optical imaging of MH370.