The k2p blog

MH370 has engaged all my attention for the last 2 weeks – and this will be my last post on this event.

The pilots were somehow incapacitated and locked in the cockpit and the plane flew for many hours along a route taking it further and further away from any place to land and from anyone within communication range. Some of the crew – even if they had been given instructions by the cockpit not to be disturbed – must have realised that something was not right. And if they had any such suspicions but could not talk to the pilots, could not break into the cockpit and could not communicate with anyone, it would have been a hellish nightmare as the plane flew on and on – on autopilot – and until it ran out of fuel. Six hours of being powerless and unable to communicate. How the auto-pilot would have brought the plane down when the fuel ran out is a little uncertain. Would the life rafts have deployed? Could they have deployed? Perhaps it would have been best if the crew and passengers were all unconscious at the time of ditching. Was that the reason for the plane’s excursion to 45,000 feet? Was it a ghost plane that flew the last six hours to nowhere?

I hope so.

The mysteries are unlikely to be solved for many months – if ever.

I cannot get away from what it was like for those crew and passengers for those last helpless, powerless 6 hours.

I don’t think I want to write about this any more. 

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It is Day 13 and the plane must now be presumed crashed with no survivors.

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So far (1600 CET) aircraft have not sighted the debris spotted by the US satellite.

Norwegian ship reaches site

WSJ: A Norwegian ship, the St. Petersburg, was the first to reach the site southwest of Australia Thursday where possible debris from the missing Malaysia Airlines MH370 plane was seen, shipping company Hoegh Autoliners said.

The St. Petersburg, on route from South Africa to Australia, was asked to assist in the search for the missing aircraft as it was sailing close to the area in the Indian Ocean where the objects were found. The ship arrived at the location at 0800 GMT and is now searching a 60-nautical-mile area, 2,260 kilometers southwest of Perth, Australia. The ship is sailing at a pace of 16-17 knots so searching the area will take approximately 4 hours, Hoegh Autolines said.

“The weather clear at the site and visibility is good, but they have not found anything yet,” said Cecilia Moe, representative at Hoegh Autoliners, who’s in close contact with the ship.

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The flight to nowhere

Excellent Washington Post graphic here.

Reuters Graphic

Reuters

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Ran out of fuel? Foul play followed by a struggle in the cockpit? or suicide pact?

The debris is about at the fuel limit for the aircraft and it could have crashed after running out of fuel. That the plane was flying for so long (7 – 8 hours) on  a trip to nowhere gives some credence to a long flight on autopilot with the pilots incapacitated. It seems unlikely that both pilots were in a suicide pact. Perhaps they were incapacitated after a deliberate – but partial – introduction of a new course. Could one of the pilots have set the whole thing up and then been discovered by the other, leading to a struggle where they “took each other out”. Perhaps the new course had not been fully reprogrammed leaving the auto-pilot on a flight to nowhere with two incapacitated pilots in a locked cockpit?????

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The satellite pictures have been released – gallery

To my untrained eye it just looks like a blob.

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Relatives are hoping that there is still some hope and that the debris is not from the aircraft but from a container or something else lost at sea. If the plane has crashed , whether on land or at sea, there is little hope for any survivors. The only real hope for survivors after 12 days is if they are being held prisoner.

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A Royal Australian Navy Warship is en route to the area but is some days away. The ship is equipped to recover any objects located and proven to be from MH370.

The location of the potential wreckage is approximately 7000 kilometres from MH370’s last known location in the skies over Penang, Malaysia. The typical cruising speed of a Boeing 777 aircraft is 905 km/hr. That means the aircraft would have been flying for between seven and eight hours before falling from the sky.

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Sydney Morning Herald/ The Age report that MH 370 could have been located That AMSA press conference has now wrapped up. Here’s a few of the key points to emerge.

• Commercial satellites have captured images of several large objects in the ocean off Western Australia.
• The images were analysed this morning and thought to be credible enough to warrant a full-scale search by aircraft and ships for the objects in the belief they may be debris from missing flight MH370.
• The objects are around 2500km south-west of Perth.
• The largest of the objects is up to 24 metres long.
• One RAAF aircraft is already at the location. A further three aircraft have been sent to the area, including a New Zealand Air Force Orion and a US Navy P8 Poseidon aircraft.
• It is not unusual to see debris floating in the ocean. Containers are sometimes adrift after falling overboard, for instance.
• There is no guarantee the objects are from the missing flight, but this is the best lead search authorities have had so far.
• It is not known when the objects will be physically located.
• a RAAF Orion aircraft first arrived on the scene at 1.50pm AEDT;
• this was followed by a US Navy P8 Poseidon aircraft at 3pm;
• a second RAAF Orion is expected to depart RAAF Base Pearce, north of Perth, at 6pm;
• a New Zealand Air Force Orion, is due to depart at 8pm.

Debris found in search for MH370 Area searched. Photo: Andrew Meares

• water in the search area could be several thousand metres deep.
• objects spotted were “indistinct” but the sightings had been assessed and were credible.
• the largest object had been assessed as measuring 24 metres, with “another one that’s smaller than that” and a number of other images located in the vicinity of the largest object.
• the images were close enough to the National Transportation Safety Board’s assessment area to potentially be linked to the 777.
• an Australian Hercules had been tasked to drop marker buoys to mark the search base.

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Police have found that the information in the flight simulator owned by Malaysia Airlines (MAS) pilot Capt Zaharie Ahmad Shah has been mostly deleted, said Home Minister Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi. “It must be remembered that the police investigation is not aimed at putting the blame on the pilot or pressuring any of his family members but is being conducted to scrutinise everything in detail to find out the cause of the incident (disappearance of a Malaysian airliner). “We’re investigating all possibilities,”

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Leaving aside aliens, one of the more bizarre theories is that this was a case of “extraordinary rendition” by the US, which took the aircraft to Diego Garcia and has now flown the aircraft under a false identity elsewhere! This theory does not quite explain where the 239 passengers and crew are except that the “wanted” people have been moved to a US “black prison” somewhere!!

I wonder whether an airctaft can be given a false identity that easily?

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Regarding the time-line it emerges that the course change programmed into the on-board flight computer came 12 minutes before the co-pilot’s last, calm, voice transmission “All right, good night”. So the Goodfellow theory that the westwards turn was due to a fire and an emergency turn back to Langkawi, followed by the pilots becoming overcome by smoke and a flight continuing on auto-pilot is not supported.  See the Goodfellow electrical fire theory here and being debunked here. This latest information appears to put the fire theory to rest.

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The only “news” so far today is that an idiot French journalist, Carrie Nooten (France 24) asked Hishammuddin Hussein at the press conference today “Can you confirm that you are PM Najib’s cousin? Are you protected?” A lack of both intelligence and knowledge.

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We are running out of theories. There are no new facts emerging. Harrowing for the relatives and friends of the 239 on board of course – but my thoughts are mainly with the 239. “There but for the grace of God …”

The only detail that emerged during day 11 was that Thai military radar saw a blip shortly after the plane turned around but didn’t reveal it till yesterday “because nobody asked them”.

On the Northern corridor, searches were concentrated in Western China /Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Near the Southern corridor there was a report of a sighting of an aircraft flying low over the southern Maldives.

No wreckage, no debris, no trace of any survivors.

The lead insurer, Allianz, has started to pay out.

And we now go into Day 12.

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UPDATE! Intriguing Maldives Islands residents report sighting of ‘low flying jet’

Residents of the remote Maldives island of Kuda Huvadhoo in Dhaal Atoll have reported seeing a “low flying jumbo jet” on the morning of the disappearance of the Malaysia Airlines flight MH370. Whilst the disappearance of the Boeing 777 jet, carrying 239 passengers has left the whole world in bewilderment, several residents of Kuda Huvadhoo told Haveeru on Tuesday that they saw a “low flying jumbo jet” at around 6:15am on March 8. 

They said that it was a white aircraft, with red stripes across it – which is what the Malaysia Airlines flights typically look like.Eyewitnesses from the Kuda Huvadhoo concurred that the aeroplane was travelling North to South-East, towards the Southern tip of the Maldives – Addu. They also noted the incredibly loud noise that the flight made when it flew over the island. 

Satellite data suggests that the last “ping” was recieved from the flight somwhere close to the Maldives and the US naval base on Diego Garcia.
But the Maldives is not amongst the countries that Malaysian authorities had sought help from in its search for the missing jet.

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The Chinese have started searching their own territory. Could the aircraft be in the Taklamakan Desert in the vast Tarim Basin in Xinjiang?

NASA landsat photo of the Tarim Basin (via Wikimedia)

Xinhua attributes this statement to the Chinese Ambassador in Malaysia which raises more questions than it answers. If no Chinese nationals were involved, the chances of the aircraft being in China ought to decrease – not increase. To start searching their own territory now – 11 days after it may have landed or crashed – is perplexing.

Perhaps the Chinese have discovered loopholes in their radar surveillance?

Xinhua:

1. No passenger from Chinese mainland aboard the missing MH370 flight might be involved in hijack or terror attack, Chinese ambassador to Malaysia said on Tuesday. Background check on all passengers from Chinese mainland has found no evidence to support that suspicion, Huang Huikang said.

2. He also said China has started search in the its territory along the northern corridor. Based on latest information, the new search areas encompass a northern corridor stretching approximately from the border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to northern Thailand, as well as a southern one from Indonesia to the southern Indian Ocean.

AFP says that the Northern corridor means that the aircraft could have flown through passes in Western China and for the plane to have reached all the way to Western China (Xinjiang?) suggests some very lax military radar in the early hours of Saturday morning (8th March). And in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region an estimated 80% of Xinjiang’s Uyghurs live in the southwestern portion of the region, the Tarim Basin.

The historic Tarim Basin lies at the border of China and Kyrgyzstan and may be one of the last places in Asia to have become inhabited. It is surrounded by mountains.

Its northern boundary is the Tian Shan mountain range and its southern boundary is the Kunlun Mountains on the edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The Taklamakan Desert dominates much of the basin.

Tarim River and Tarim Basin in Xinjiang (Wikipedia)

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A clear graphic tweeted by Agence France Press

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I have just been watching the daily Press Conference today (Monday) and it is obvious that some incorrect information was given by the Minister at yesterday’s press conference.

Yesterday (Sunday) he had said that the ACARS system had been switched off before the co-pilots last transmission.

CLG: Acting Transport Minister Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Tun Hussein told the media yesterday that the ACARS was turned off before the message. Previously, it was reported that the system was turned off after the last voice contact.

Today it became apparent that this was not necessarily true. The last ACARS transmission was at 0107 and it did not transmit at the next scheduled transmission at 0137. It must have been switched off between 0107 and 0137. The co-pilots last words to Air Traffic Control “All Right. Good Night” was at 0119.

What he should have said was that the voice transmission took place after the last ACARS transmission but not necessarily before it was switched off.

It was noticeable at today’s Press Conference that the Minister was avoiding comparisons with what was said yesterday.

It is Day 10 and the lack of any information is dropping the story to the bottom of the front pages. But the fate of 239 passengers and crew is still not known. It is becoming a mystery much more perplexing than the Mary Celeste.

The last military radar observation put the MH370 Boeing 777 on its way to (or close to) the Igrex navigational waypoint, south of the Andaman Islands. This was about 4 1½ hours into the flight. Then comes the final “ping”, 7½ hours into the flight, picked up by a satellite over the Indian Ocean. At that point the aircraft would have had 30 – 60 minutes of fuel left (30 minutes if flying fast and perhaps 60 minutes if flying close to its minimum speed). The ping places the aircraft – presumably with engines still running – somewhere along the Northern or the Southern corridors. The ping is silent on whether the plane was in flight or on the ground – but I think it does indicate the engines were still running.

twists and turns mh370 (malaysian insider)

The question becomes how did the aircraft get to the “ping” arcs from its last known position without being picked up by civilian or military radar. What “stealth path” did it follow?

Stealth paths MH370 (based on Mirror graphic)

It is becoming clear that not all military radar in the region is in continuous operation (because it is too expensive) or manned 24×7 unless it is a sensitive military area. For example, Indian military radar at the Naval base at Port Blair is not in continuous operation or the most advanced, because it is considered a “peaceful zone”. Military radar – even when active – tends to ignore signals from presumed commercial aircraft on well-travelled paths especially when they show up at the expected times.

NST: Investigators are poring over the Boeing 777-200ER’s flight profile to determine if it had flown low and used “terrain masking” during most of the eight hours it was missing from the radar coverage of possibly at least three countries. ……. 

By sticking to commercial routes, the flight may not have raised the suspicion of those manning primary (military) radars of the nations it overflew. To them, MH370 would appear to be just another commercial aircraft on its way to its destination.

What is known is that

1. the aircraft at times flew as high as 41,000 feet, sometimes at 23,000 feet and at times as low as 5,000 feet with cruising altitude being 31,000 -35,000 feet.
2. at 5,000 feet – in the right terrain – the aircraft would even be invisible to military radar
3. at 23,000 feet (or thereabouts) and if it was flying some 10,000 feet under and along the same track as some other regular commercial aircraft, it could have been hidden under the “shadow” of the other aircraft and would not immediately have been picked up. Especially if the other flight was a regular and expected flight.
4. until its last known position, the aircraft was flown very deliberately and very skillfully along a track which minimised its chances of being picked up.
5. Even the initial change of direction westwards was cleverly made just at the point where Malaysian Air Traffic Control was to hand over to Vietnamese Control.

The lenth of the “ping” arcs depend upon the plane’s speed. If the plane had been at normal cruising speeds it could have reached the vicinity of Kyrgyzstan or Kazakhstan. The route across China and Kazakhstan is a regular commercial route and dozens of flights followed that corridor on the night MH370 vanished. To be “concealed” from radar by the shadow of other commercial flights, MH370 would have been constrained to maintain a “normal” cruising speed. So it is not impossible for the aircraft to have followed a well-planned track, executed very well, hopping between different altitudes and hopping between different tracks of regular commercial flights, to get from its last known position to one of the “ping” tracks.  But it would have required considerable and detailed planning and some skill to implement. It is probably no coincidence that all this happened during the “dead” time of night in that part of the world (starting at 0100 Malaysian time and at the time of the last ping around 0800 in Malysia – 0530 in India or 0500 in Kyrgyzstan).

(Once upon a time when I worked on the night shift of research projects, the “dead” time when things got missed was always between 0200 and 0400).

There are only 3 possibilities remaining:

1. the aircraft has crashed or been crashed into the Indian Ocean and all aboard have perished, or
2. the aircraft has landed at a secret location and some or all of the crew and passengers are alive and being held, or
3. the aircraft has crashed on land at an unknown location with little chance of any survivors.

I am inclined to believe it must be one of the first two. For want of any other explanation I am staying with a path over Myanmar, NE India and over Tibetan China to a barren area with a makeshift landing strip at the Chinese -Kyrgyzstan border.

This is surreal.

It has kept my attention totally engaged for the last 8 days.

If Tom Clancy had written this plot it would have been considered a little far-fetched. But we have seen a modern government, in this the 21st century, play out this unreal plot. It seems to be a remarkably daring and sophisticated exploit with many governments and agencies – not just the Malaysian – following a pre-written script like puppets.

But who is the puppet-master?

A Malaysia Airlines airliner (a Boeing 777-200ER – registration 9M-MRO) with 239 passengers and crew on board was stolen in mid-flight, on its way from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing as Flight MH370, and taken to some unknown hide-away, by unknown perpetrators for some unknown motive. It happened 7 days ago but the theft was not discovered till now. The perpetrators covered their tracks so well that we don’t even know which way the plane was headed.

It could have gone North or it could have gone South.

It could have flown up to 2,000 nautical miles from its last known position.

It could have crashed in the sea, or not.

It could have landed on an uninhabited island in the Southern Indian Ocean, or not

It could be in Central Asia, or not.

The passengers may be alive, or not.

The pilot and co-pilot may have been involved, or not.

Other passengers may have been involved, or not.

Two passengers were travelling on false passports, but they were not terrorists – we think.

The aircraft may still be intact, or not.

But we are not confused.

We know with certainty that we don’t know what we don’t know.

Maybe the Malaysian Government and Malaysia Airlines were just unlucky to be chosen by the puppet-master. I am not entirely sure that any other government would not also have been compelled to follow this puppeteer’s script.

But there are still 239 lives at stake.

The Malaysian PM is holding a Press Conference – the first he is addressing since the plane vanished where he will make a short statement but will not take questions.

The Prime Minister upheld perceptions of Malaysian officialdom. The press conference started just 50 minutes late

• Turn back confirmed.
• Based on satellite , highly certain that ACARS communication was first switched off
• Near handover to Vietnam control, transponders were switched off.
• Deliberate action by someone on the plane – all possibilities being considered.
• Last satellite communication was on 0811 on 8th March (7 hours after the last normal communication)
• Still calculating how much further it could have flown
• Could have been on Northern or Southern corridor
• Likely to be in Corridor Along Thailand-Kazakhstan route or Indonesia-South India
• Ending Search in South China Sea, Focusing on New Corridors
• All aboard to be investigated

One of the pilots or someone else with flying experience hijacked the plane.

We don’t know who. 

We don’t know why

We don’t know where the plane is now (but it is not in the South China Sea).

We are now into Day 8 since the plane vanished. Finding the plane is still the main focus but investigating some form of “foul play” is now running second.

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CNN is tweeting that the plane could have taken one of two paths after its 5 hours of “silent” flying; one North West across the Andamans towards India, or one to the South West  which I make to be in the direction of Diego Garcia. Either way with no extra fuel it ends up in the Indian Ocean.

CNN tweet – Two possible paths

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The Telegraph: The disappearance of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 may have been “an act of piracy” and the possibility that its hundreds of passengers are being held at an unknown location has not been ruled out, US investigators have said.

The search area is still limited by the knowledge of how much fuel was on board. That would have lasted for a total of a little over 8 hours at take-off (with the flight time to Beijing being about 6 hours). If the plane flew on for -say- 4 to 5 hours from its last known position it could still have had almost 2½ hours of fuel left on board at that time.

That any refuelling could have taken place during the 5 “silent” hours is at the very edges of science fiction. Mid-air refuelling is out of the question and there are not many places where – even with all possible cooperation from the ground – a Boeing 777 could have landed and refuelled. Any final destination in the Middle East would have required more fuel.

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Bangladesh has joined the search. India and Bangladesh are said to be checking sections of their coastlines some 15km out to sea. (I am guessing that these are areas where the currents are likely to carry debris from the Bay of Bengal).

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The New York Times says that a satellite firm claims its data could be analysed to give the location. One would hope that such data is already being analysed and that Inmarsat are not just sitting on the data waiting for someone to offer them a deal! . Apparently it is.

NYT:

SEPANG, Malaysia — As the hunt for the missing Malaysia Airlines jet expanded into the daunting vastness of the Indian Ocean, a satellite communications company confirmed on Friday that it had recorded electronic “keep alive” ping signals from the plane after it disappeared, and said those signals could be analyzed to help estimate its location.

The information from the company, Inmarsat, could prove to be the first big break in helping narrow the frustrating search for the plane with 239 people aboard that mysteriously disappeared from radar screens a week ago, now hunted by a multinational array of ships and planes that have fanned out for thousands of square miles.