Archive for August, 2011

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Discovery of Icelandic ocean current unsettles “settled” climate theories

August 23, 2011

So much for settled science.

A new paper overturns previous thinking that the East Greenland Current was the main source of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The newly discovered North Icelandic Jet (NIJ) is now thought to dominate the return of dense water south through gaps in the Greenland-Scotland Ridge to keep the “great ocean conveyor belt” moving.

Kjetil Våge, Robert S. Pickart, Michael A. Spall, Héðinn Valdimarsson, Steingrímur Jónsson, Daniel J. Torres, Svein Østerhus & Tor Eldevik. Significant role of the North Icelandic Jet in the formation of Denmark Strait overflow water. Nature Geoscience, 21 August 2011 DOI:10.1038/ngeo1234

graphic by Reuters

 Science Daily reports:

ScienceDaily (Aug. 21, 2011) — An international team of researchers, including physical oceanographers from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), has confirmed the presence of a deep-reaching ocean circulation system off Iceland that could significantly influence the ocean’s response to climate change in previously unforeseen ways. 

The current, called the North Icelandic Jet (NIJ), contributes to a key component of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), also known as the “great ocean conveyor belt,” which is critically important for regulating Earth’s climate. As part of the planet’s reciprocal relationship between ocean circulation and climate, this conveyor belt transports warm surface water to high latitudes where the water warms the air, then cools, sinks, and returns towards the equator as a deep flow.

Crucial to this warm-to-cold oceanographic choreography is the Denmark Strait Overflow Water (DSOW), the largest of the deep, overflow plumes that feed the lower limb of the conveyor belt and return the dense water south through gaps in the Greenland-Scotland Ridge.

For years it has been thought that the primary source of the Denmark Overflow is a current adjacent to Greenland known as the East Greenland Current. However, this view was recently called into question by two oceanographers from Iceland who discovered a deep current flowing southward along the continental slope of Iceland. They named the current the North Icelandic Jet and hypothesized that it formed a significant part of the overflow water.

Now, in a paper published in the Aug. 21 online issue of the journal Nature Geoscience, the team of researchers — including the two Icelanders who discovered it — has confirmed that the Icelandic Jet is not only a major contributor to the DSOW but “is the primary source of the densest overflow water.” ……..

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Posted in Climate, Geosciences, Oceans | 2 Comments »

David Cameron was “played” by News International

August 23, 2011

David Cameron’s judgement in employing Andy Coulson has already been brought into question. Apparently Coulson was also privy to confidential documents and meetings beyond his security clearance and that he was spared – or protected from – the highest level of security vetting. It has been suggested that his appointment may have been at the behest of Rupert Murdoch or Rebekah Brooks.

It now appears that Andy Coulson was working for two paymasters strengthening the impression that David Cameron was not just a “dupe” but that he was being “played” by News International. Presumably the real objective for News International was the acquisition of BSkyB.

The BBC breaks this story:

Coulson got hundreds of thousands of pounds from News Int

Andy Coulson, the former editor of the News of the World who has been arrested on suspicion of involvement in phone hacking and bribing the police, received several hundred thousand pounds from News International after starting work as the Conservative Party’s Director of Communications in July 2007.

These payments were part of his severance package, under what is known as a “compromise agreement”.

According to sources, Mr Coulson’s contractual leaving pay was given to him in instalments until the end of 2007 – which means he continued to be financially linked to News International for several months of his tenure as David Cameron’s main media adviser. ….. Mr Coulson also continued to receive his News International work benefits, such as healthcare, for three years, and he kept his company car. ………

Related: Phone hacking: PM’s defence of Coulson over the years

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Posted in Business, Ethics, Politics, UK | 1 Comment »

La Niña is back and will persist till 2012

August 22, 2011

In February Klaus Wolter came to the conclusion that there was an even chance that La Niña conditions could extend into 2012. He wrote then:

While La Niña conditions are guaranteed well into 2011, it remains to be seen whether it can rally once more to cross the -2 sigma barrier, and/or whether it will indeed last into 2012, as discussed six months ago on this page. I believe the odds for a two-year event remain well above 50%, made even more likely by the continued unabated strength in various ENSO indices.

Bob Tisdale points out at WUWT that

NINO3.4 SST anomalies (a commonly used El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index) have dropped significantly below the -0.5 deg C threshold of a La Niña Event. They are presently at approximately -0.74 deg C.

NINO3.4 SST anomalies

NOAA has yet to update its El Niño / La Niña forecasts but has called a “La Niña watch” but Bob Tisdale is ahead of them in calling the return of La Niña which is not too far away from Wolter’s forecast.

Update!! 8th September: NOAA now calls it:  La Niña is back

But Agriculture.com reports that the money is already betting on La Niña conditions for this winter and into 2012:

Sentiment towards commodities lying in the traditional path of conditions known as La Nina is starting to turn more bullish, exacerbated by supply shortages in a number of products like iron ore and coal.

Forecasting models by the U.S. National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center predict La Nina will redevelop this autumn. “Atmospheric patterns continue to reflect La Nina-like conditions,” the weather body said.

La Nina is a periodic climatic phenomenon that brings more rain to the western Pacific, and to a lesser extent, to the eastern Pacific. Climatologists blamed La Nina for last year’s floods that gripped Australia, resulting in major losses to coal and iron ore stockpiles. 

But while it isn’t clear what impact La Nina might have on the production and shipment of commodities, its return isn’t expected to cause the same serious problems as in 2010. That’s because historically the La Nina weather phenomenon occurs in bursts of three consecutive years, with the first one being the worst and the next two much milder. ……

Joe Vaclavik, grains broker at Chicago-based MF global, said from an agricultural commodity markets perspective, the biggest fear of a second La Nina would be the continuation of the current drought in the U.S. southern plains, causing further damage to the winter wheat crop. ….. Matt Rogers, President of Maryland-based Commodity Weather Group, warned that possible effects from the second round of La Nina could bring above-normal precipitation in eastern Australia, but would actually benefit the wheat and barley crops in terms of moisture. Yet, dryness concerns could be an issue for Argentina and southern Brazil, which would experience lower amounts of rainfall, causing damage to wheat, corn and soybean yields.

And Indian and Japanese forecasters have already called La Niña conditions.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast an active wet spell for northwest India during the next five days and over east and adjoining central India during the next three days. This came about on a day when Japanese scientists assessed that the predicted return of La Nina conditions may already be happening.

Dr Jing-Jia Luo, Senior Scientist with the Climate Variation Predictability and Applicability Research Programme Research at RIGC, wrote to Business Lineon Friday that the La Nina condition is currently on the way back. This condition is forecast to persist until early next year, Dr Jing-Jia says, adding that a weak positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which mimics EL Nino-La Nina in the Indian Ocean, also may occur during the next few months.

Positive IOD refers to the warming of seas-surface temperatures in the western part of the Indian Ocean, and vice versa. Positive IOD has been found to favour a concurrent monsoon. Regional forecast from the RIGC said that the La Nina would bring cool to wet conditions over southern Africa, Australia, and Brazil during the southern hemisphere summer.

The confirming indicators for a La Niña event are accumulating – from the Indian monsoon to greater evaporation leading to increased rains expected in the Western Pacific in Australia, less rain in the Eastern Pacific on the western coast of S. America (coastal Chile and Peru) but increased rain on the east coast in southern Brazil and  northern Argentina.

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Posted in Agriculture, Climate, Geosciences, Natural Phenomena, Weather | 2 Comments »

Where are Muller’s Saab shares going?

August 22, 2011

The end-game for Saab is being played out and I can’t help feeling that – unlike for Gaddafi – this end-game is still one designed by Vladimir Antonov and implemented by Victor Muller. Svenska Dagbladet reports today:

Confidence in Saab is faltering as two major car dealers have stopped selling Saab in Sweden and also in the U.S. 

Meanwhile Victor Muller is “lending” his private shares to the fund that recently bought newly issued and discounted Saab shares to raise cash to pay salaries. And  it seems that to avoid the dilution of shares a complicated deal is being done with Muller’s shares

Saab (actually the parent company Swedish Automobile) in August, in a last desperate measure, used cash from GEM fund to pay salaries. GEM’s business is to buy newly printed shares at a discount and then sell them at a profit on the open market. This provided Saab with a needed cash injection, but was also a dangerous dilution with the risk that the stock price would go down.

The Dutch financial agency AFM, has said that now Victor Muller has got rid of almost half of his shares, 3.3 million and converted them into stock options along with 2.5 million unlisted class A shares.

“I sold zero shares, but lent my shares to GEM to allow them to sell them. I get non-listed A shares of the Company as compensation” Muller said in a an SMS text message. According to the AFM, it means at this time that Muller’s influence has decreased from 8.5 million to 3.6 million voting shares. According to Muller, the options are now directly convertible into A shares. “There is an instant convert to A shares and there are no conditions associated with stock options” he writes in his SMS.

Worker’s wages are due on Thursday and white-collar employees should be paid on Friday. Saab itself has been emptied of cash and assets and this may be another ploy. Of course money Muller raises by lending his own shares is cash to his private account. It can only get into Saab’s coffers if he provides a secure loan of some kind to Saab and I am sure he will not lose out as other creditors will in the event of an insolvency.

In the meantime Swedish authorities – the Swedish Enforcement Administration, or Kronofogden – have launched an official debt collection probe of  Saab where unpaid bills have been piling up for months as a first step in what could end in bankruptcy. Kronofogden’s Hans Ryberg announced last week that the probe results from the unpaid bills of  Sweden’s Infotiv, owed 224,000 kronor, and of Norway’s Kongsberg, owed 145,000 kronor.

Production has been at a standstill since April.

Related: Saab being plundered by Victor Muller and his friends

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Posted in Automobiles, Business, Ethics, Sweden | 1 Comment »

End-game for Gadaffi no longer of his making

August 22, 2011

Update 2! Now even Saif al-Islam Gaddafi has appeared in Tripoli surrounded by his supporters and claiming that they are in control  and that his father is well. This could be a bitter end-game after the euphoria of yesterday.

Update! Mohammed Gaddafi – the older brother of Saif – has managed to escape from house arrest with the help of Gaddafi loyal troops!

He should have taken up the Chavez offer to move to Venezuela or have slunk away to his bolt-hole in Belarus. He should have used his friend Berlusconi’s travel agency to get away. Those options are no longer available to him. The earlier “negotiations” with French and EU contacts foundered on the riduculous demands made by his children.

Now it is reported that his youngest son Khamis has been killed.  In the last 2 days 2 or maybe 3 more of his sons have been captured by the rebels.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has confirmed that Saif al Islam and his older brother Mohammed have been detained.

CC prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo said: “It is very important to make clear there is an obligation to surrender Saif to the ICC in accordance with the Security Council resolution.”

Saif was reportedly captured in a western tourist village of Libya, while Mohammed surrendered to rebel forces and is under house arrest.

But Gaddafi himself  has not been seen in public since May. One of his last TV appearances was in mid-June when he was pictured playing chess with the World Chess Federation president Kirsan Ilyumzhinov. He was heard on radio on Saturday saying that he was in Tripoli but this does not say much. Reports that he may be on his way to South Africa were denied by the Zuma government.  The BBC reports that he may no longer be in Tripoli:

One of the most persistent rumours is that he left Tripoli a while ago and may have gone to his birthplace of Sirte, on the western coast, or his ancestral home of Sabha in the south.

It is possible but unlikely that he has remained in his compound – with its bunker – in the Libyan capital. Fierce fighting is currently being reported around his Bab al-Azizia residence.

How the rebels will treat Gaddafi and his children will be quite telling about what we can expect in Libya. In 40 years of power as the “peoples leader” he has not built up any of the country’s institutions and “clan power” and clan politics may rule for some time.

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Posted in Libya, Politics | 1 Comment »

Marital conservation of mass

August 22, 2011
File:Get fat3.jpg

image: wikipedia

There is a certain symmetry to this conclusion and it would seem to imply that the principle of mass conservation is being complied with. But what would be much more interesting would be a conclusion about weight loss and change of marital status. For example, “women lose weight before getting engaged and men lose weight before a divorce” would be intuitively indicated and would be even more interesting than

Women gain weight after marriage, men after divorce 

Women are most likely to gain weight after marriage while men tend to pile on the pounds following a divorce, according to research.

A study of more than 10,000 people surveyed between 1986 and 2008 found that both marrying and getting divorced can have a “weight shock” effect that leads to rapid weight gain, especially in over-30s. But there was a marked difference between men and women in which marital event was the most traumatic on the waistline.

Researchers used data from a national survey in which men and women were weighed every year to see how many pounds they gained or lost in the two years following a marriage or divorce. Up to the age of 30 there was little impact on the weight of either men or women, but after this point the probability of weight gain after marriage or divorce began to rise steadily until the age of 50.

Both sexes were more likely to gain weight in the two years after a divorce or marriage than someone who had never been married, the research showed. The study, to be presented at the annual meeting of the American Sociological Association in Las Vegas today [AUG 22], says it is not clear why men’s and women’s waistlines respond differently to marriage and divorce.

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Posted in Behaviour, Natural Phenomena, Trivia | 1 Comment »

College athletes and accommodating professors

August 22, 2011

The massive commercialisation of college sports in the US has led to the situation where coaches can make $10 million per annum and sometimes have salaries which are 25 times higher than what the college president may earn. The media payments to the colleges for covering these sports is enormous and provides the incentive for colleges to have sports programs attracting the best athletes in spite of any academic shortcomings. Colleges provide the forum and the vehicle for the money-spinning sports enterprises. And since the colleges are supposed primarily to be academic institutions it becomes necessary to have – or seem to have – minimum academic standards that even the athletes must satisfy.

A PRICE TO PLAY  ‘Corrupt’ system in danger of collapse

But the academic standards to be fulfilled are merely a cover for the sports-based enterprise.  This in turn creates the pressure for colleges to create easy courses especially designed for academically disabled athletes and  for academics to go easy on athletes attending their courses. Effectively athlete students are encouraged to cheat and all the different codes of ethics and integrity that are created serve only as a way to define all the loop-holes in the code that can then be used to cheat without being declared a cheat.

“(Stanford) accommodates athletes in the manner that they accommodate students with disabilities.” Prof. Donald Barr, Associate Professor of Sociology and Human Biology

The recent case of Prof. Julius Nyang’oro and his 400 level class in Bioethics in Afro-American Studies is a case in point. An athlete got into the class despite having a score on the written portion of the SAT that was low enough that he needed to take a remedial writing class, which he took in the subsequent fall semester. No student received less than a B-minus on Nyang’oro’s course. The Charlotte Observer writes:

Julia Nichols, the student services manager for UNC’s Academic Advising Program, said it is unusual for any freshman to begin his or her college education with a 400 level course. The exceptions, she said, are freshmen who have demonstrated an aptitude, either through advanced placement classes or other experience and petition the professor to be allowed to take the course.

“As a general, blanketed rule, freshmen are not normally allowed to take 400 or 500 level classes,” she said.

There is little doubt that while inter-collegiate athletes are privileged, others suffer from being stigmatised as academically stunted. It would be unthinkable however for an academic student to be required to satisfy some minimum sports or athletic standard to graduate or to be stigmatised as athletically stunted. No athletically inept student is stigmatised because he cannot catch a ball.

If a professor knows you are an athlete, you are assumed to be stupid until you can prove otherwise. (White male water polo)

In a big, class (400 people). Before test professor said, “It’s an easy test. Even athletes can pass.” (White male swimming)

Professor asked the student athletes to stand on the first day of class and said, “These are the people who will probably drop this class.” (African American female, basketball)

….. They are seen as academically unqualified illegitimate students whose only interest is athletics, who expect and receive special treatment from professors and others. The perception is that in order to remain eligible and participate in sports they put in minimum effort, do little academic work, take easy classes and have others do their work for them. …..

But there is no reason to confine a college to only the so-called academic courses.

Perhaps if every college had a sports or athletic faculty where grades were obtained for performance and where courses at this faculty demanded a minimum level of performance, some of the hypocrisy would be eliminated. Promoting excellence in any discipline – even a sport – is surely a legitimate activity for any University or College. The brain does not have to be separated from the brawn.

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Posted in Education, Ethics, Sport | 1 Comment »

Lady driver +Texas lawyer = Lexus in cement

August 22, 2011

A female lawyer got into a sticky situation when she attempted a U-turn, only accomplished an L-turn and drove straight onto a bed of freshly laid wet cement in Houston, Texas. Police were eventually called in to rescue the woman, but it’s understood she decided to stay in her car so as not to ruin her shoes.

The only mitigating circumstance is that it was 08:30 in the morning – a time when lawyers are not usually awake.

A Lexus in cement in Houston, Texas, 16th August

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Posted in Trivia | Comments Off on Lady driver +Texas lawyer = Lexus in cement

Vice Chancellor of Peshawar University found guilty of plagiarism but uses the courts and political pressure to remain in office

August 21, 2011

Dr. Azmat Hayat Khan : image US Embassy Pakistan

The Vice-Chancellor of the University of Peshawar,  Dr Azmat Hayat Khan has been found guilty of plagiarism by a three-member committee of the Higher Education Commission that was constituted to probe the matter. The Higher Education Commission has submitted its report to Governor Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa who is also the Chancellor of the university. The Vice Chancellor has gone to court to prevent any actions being taken against him.

Noor Aftab in  The News.

University of Peshawar Vice Chancellor Dr Azmat Hayat Khan has been found involved in plagiarism by the three-member committee of Higher Education Commission (HEC) that was constituted to probe into the matter. …  Dr Khan, a former director of the Area Study Centre has been accused by a university teacher Muhammad Zubair, of including in his book titled ‘The Durand Land: Its Geo Strategic Importance’, published in 2000 by Area Study Centre, University of Peshawar, and Hanns Seidel Foundation, some passages from the book ‘Pak-Afghan Relations’, written by Dr Kulwant Kaur of Jammu University, Jammu, and published by Deep and Deep publications in 1985.

As per plagiarism policy, vice chancellors are responsible to constitute the plagiarism standing committee and committee will report to him but in this case the complaint is against the VC himself. Finding itself toothless in the said situation, HEC asked the Governor KPK to intervene and conduct an independent, impartial and unbiased enquiry against the incumbent VC, being fully in charge of the university. However, the Governor wrote letter to HEC and authorised it to constitute a committee to probe into the matter. 

Challenging the jurisdiction and authority of Higher Education Commission (HEC) in dealing with the cases of plagiarism, University of Peshawar Vice Chancellor (VC), Dr Azmat Hayat Khan has filed a writ petition in Peshawar High Court in which he has asked the apex court to refrain the commission from taking any action on the grounds of alleged plagiarism against him. …..

The complainant Mohammad Zubair believes that some political leaders of ANP were trying to cover VC by stopping the Governor to take any action against him.

Back in March, the complainant Mohammad Zubair, an assistant professor at the UoP Law College was suspended:

Mr Zubair had been accused of ‘gross misconduct’ under the University of Peshawar Employees Efficiency and Discipline Statutes, 1977 and charged with violation of the university rules. The teacher has been charged with taking part in political activities and making objectionable speeches. He has also been charged for direct and frequent correspondence with the chancellor and the HEC and delivering misleading information.

There were also reports in June that Zubair had complained of his life being threatened.

Though Vice-Chancellors are generally former academics, the appointments as Vice Chancellor are entirely political. The Awami National Party (ANP) is a political party and is very strong in the Pashtun dominated areas of Khyber- Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan and Sindh provinces. With party support and considering the balance of political forces in Pakistan it is highly unlikely that any serious action will be taken against the VC.

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Posted in Ethics, Universities | 3 Comments »

Medtronic pays 5 surgeons $7m kickbacks in just 9 months: The rape of Medicare

August 21, 2011

The Medtronic story is not just about ghost- writing and paying for favourable peer-reviewed scientific papers and supporting researchers to the tune of millions but it is also about all the surgeons in their pocket and how they exploit and “rape” Medicare.

Earl Stevens writes:

Norton Hospital in Louisville, Ky., may not be a household name nationally. But five senior spine surgeons have helped put it on the map in at least one category: From 2004 to 2008, Norton performed the third-most spinal fusions on Medicare patients in the country.

The five surgeons are also among the largest recipients nationwide of payments from medical-device giant Medtronic Inc. In the first nine months of this year alone, the surgeons — Steven Glassman, Mitchell Campbell, John Johnson, John Dimar and Rolando Puno — received more than $7 million from the Fridley, Minn., company. Medtronic and the surgeons say the payments are mostly royalties they earned for helping the company design one of its best-selling spine products.

Corporate whistleblowers and congressional critics contend such arrangements—which are common in orthopedic surgery—amount to kickbacks to stoke sales of medical devices. They argue that the overuse of surgical hardware ranging from heart stents to artificial hips is a big factor behind the soaring costs of Medicare, the government medical-insurance system for the elderly and disabled. ….

Using a Medicare database that tracks hospitals’ billing, The Wall Street Journal was able to ascertain that Norton is among the most aggressive practitioners of spinal fusion in the country.

Spinal fusion has become one of medicine’s most controversial procedures. It involves fusing together two or more vertebrae to alleviate back pain, usually with the help of metal plates, rods and screws implanted in the patient’s back. Tens of thousands of dollars of hardware can go into a single surgery. ….. Conservative spine surgeons argue that a spinal fusion is appropriate only for a small number of conditions, such as spinal instability, spinal fracture or a severe curvature of the spine known as scoliosis, and that financial incentives have caused the procedure to become overused. …

One health insurer, the nonprofit Blue Cross and Blue Shield of North Carolina, announced in September that it would stop paying for spine fusions performed on such patients beginning on Jan. 1. The insurer said that the procedures are “considered not medically necessary.” …

Some recent studies have suggested poor outcomes for spinal fusion.

So much for the Hippocratc Oath which requires “prescribing regimens for the good of my patients according to my ability and my judgment and never doing harm to anyone“.

Related: Medtronics and others – “supporting doctors with multi – million dollar payments”  

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Posted in Business, Ethics, Medicine, scientific misconduct | Comments Off on Medtronic pays 5 surgeons $7m kickbacks in just 9 months: The rape of Medicare

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