Archive for the ‘Alarmism’ Category

Prof. Peter A. Ziegler: Solar effects drive climate change not CO2

March 14, 2013
Peter Ziegler

Peter Ziegler: image The Geological Society

Prof. Peter Ziegler (b. 1928) is a Swiss geologist  and Titular Professor of Global Geology at the Geological-Paleontological Institute, University of Basel. He is a member of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Sciences, the Polish Academy of Arts and Sciences, the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences and the Academia Europaea. His presentation on the “Mechanisms of Climate Change” from February this year is pretty self-contained and self explanatory and my comments would only be superfluous.

Climate Change Ziegler 2013 (pdf)

I reproduce his conclusions slide below:

  • Climate change during industrial times can be fully explained by natural processes
  • During the last 550 Million years major natural climate changes involved large fluctuations in temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations
  • Apart from orbital forcing and the distribution of continents and oceans, variations in solar activity and the galactic cosmic ray flux controlled climate changes during the geological past and probably still do so
  • Despite rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations we may experience during the coming decades a serious temperature decline akin to the Maunder Minimum due to decreasing solar activity
  • There is overwhelming evidence that Temperature forces the Carbon Cycle and not vice-versa, as postulated by IPCC
  • IPCC underestimates the effects of direct and indirect solar climate forcing but overestimates CO2 forcing by assuming unrealistic positive temperature feedbacks from a concomitant water vapor and cloud increase
  • The IPCC consensus on anthropogenic CO2 emissions causing Global Warming cannot be reconciled with basic data and is therefore challenged

Finale! Climategate 3.0 released and speculation about Mr. FOIA is rife

March 14, 2013

The anonymous disseminator of the Climategate emails (Climategate and Climategate 2.0) has been dubbed Mr. FOIA in the blogosphere. He still remains anonymous but he has now released the password for the large email dump he released under CG2.0. The password has been released to some selected bloggers  in the hope that they will have the time to sift through them, leave out any personal or irrelevant indiscretions and focus on the unprofessional and unethical manipulations of data by the “climate science” clique/hierarchy that was first revealed in Climategate.

We shall no doubt be hearing much over the next few weeks as this “crowd-sourced” analysis of the emails proceeds.

Mr. FOIA has probably achieved more than any other single individual in applying some brakes to the runaway train that was the global warming orthodoxy before Copenhagen. There is much speculation as to the identity of Mr. FOIA and my current speculative summary of his profile is:

    • not resident in the US or UK (>99%)
    • unlikely (<30%) to be usually resident in one of the old Commonwealth countries (Australia, Canada, S. Africa, India, N. Z., ….)
    • probably (>99%) not a native English speaker but with a formidable command of English
    • has possibly (>60%) been assigned to the University of East Anglia for some time (any faculty)
    • may have been (c. 30%) temporarily assigned to the CRE of the UEA
    • high probability of being resident in Europe (>70%)
    • could possibly (>30%) be originally from Scandinavia/Baltic States/N. Europe
    • has spent considerable time in the IT/programming fields (>99.9%)
    • IT experience perhaps only as support for his mainstream activities (>60%)
    • probably (>95%) male
    • probably (>75%) “white”
    • probably (>80%) aged under 50
    • probably (c. 80%) now agnostic/humanistic
    • probably (>50%) brought up as a Protestant/Lutheran
    • probably (> 50%) prefers wine to beer
    • probably (>50%) prefers beer to whiskey
    • probably (>60%) prefers soccer to baseball
    • probably (>80%) does not play golf

A photograph of Phil Jones – one of the Climategate stars – in his office from Tom Nelson’s blog.  I can see why FOIA requests are far too time consuming for him! A good thing that the science is settled. If only Phil had learnt to use Excel.

Phil Jones in his office with his data. Good thing the science is settled.

“Half of deer population in UK should be culled” to protect countryside and birdlife!!

March 7, 2013

There is a large amount of hypocrisy and no small measure of irony here!

The bio-diversity creed seems to have become “Kill off the successful species and protect the unsuccessful ones”.

BBCDeer: 50% cull ‘necessary to protect countryside’

Around half of the UK’s growing deer population needs to be shot each year to stop devastation of woodlands and birdlife, a group of scientists says. A study published in the Journal of Wildlife Management says this would keep numbers stable.

The deer population is currently estimated at around 1.5 million. The researchers from the University of East Anglia suggest creating a venison market to make a cull ethically and economically acceptable. The Royal Society for the Protection of Animals (RSPCA) commented that any cull must be carried out in a humane and controlled way and be supported by “strong science”.

There are now more deer in the UK than at any time since the last Ice Age. …

…. Dr Paul Dolman, ecologist at the University of East Anglia and lead author, said: “We know deer are eating out the… vegetation of important woodlands, including ancient woodlands.

“Deer are implicated as the major cause of unfavourable conditions in terms of woodland structure and regeneration.

“There is evidence that deer reduce the number of woodland birds – especially some of our much loved migrant birds species like Blackcap and Nightingale, and resident species like Willow Tip. We have a problem.”

Dr Paul M Dolman

Dr Paul M Dolman – Bambi killer

Dr Paul Dolman is one of the “biodiversity” brigade and seems to be a bird-watcher of some note. But like most of this advocacy group he seems more than a little confused. I note that he invokes “strong science” – whatever that may be – to support his vision of a string of farm-shops and gastro-pubs serving venison. It would take more than a few pubs to handle 750,000 deer every year. I like his comment that such meat would be “ethically sourced”! I suppose that makes it all right then. This is not science – it is religion.

“We are not killing something and then incinerating the carcass – what we are talking about is harvesting a wild animal to supply wild free-ranging venison for or tables – for farm shops, for gastro pubs.

“What we are advocating isn’t removing deer from the countryside – what we are advocating is trying to get on top of the deer population explosion and try to control the problems that are being caused.

“And in a way, [venison] provides a sustainable food source where you know where it comes from, you know it is ethically sourced, you know it is safe to eat, and that puts food on people’s tables. As much as I love deer, to be a meat eater but then to object to the culling and harvesting of deer seems to be inconsistent.”

Global warming on hold (courtesy of the sun)

March 2, 2013
  • CO2 lags global temperature.
  • CO2 keeps increasing while temperature stands still.
  • Man made CO2 is about  3.6 % of all CO2 production

An inconvenient truth it’s the sun stupid!

16 years

CFACT Billboard

Fighting against species extinction is to deny evolution

February 27, 2013

I was reading an article today about the threat of extinction for leather-backed turtles and once again I started wondering as to why extinction of a species or a language or of an isolated tribe arouses moral outrage or is an emotional matter for so many people. I don’t want these turtles to become extinct just as I don’t want tigers or polar bears or pandas to become extinct. But this is purely an emotional reaction because each of these animals is attractive – to my human eye – in its own right. Outside of TV documentaries, zoos and safari parks I have never seen any of them. I don’t have the same reaction when I read that guinea worms or disease-carrying species of mosquitoes are being eradicated. “Good riddance” is then the predominating feeling that I have. Yet whether a mammal or a bacterium becomes extinct the genetic loss is about the same. That dinosaurs became extinct millions of years ago or even that humans killed off the dodo or the thylacine or the Javan tiger in more recent times arouses some feelings of regret but not any moral outrage or much emotional response from me. The article about the turtles – like most other articles about the extinction of species  – is permeated with the politically correct assumption that extinction would be a “bad thing”. But I never see properly addressed the question as to why the extinction of a species is a “bad thing”.

This is essentially a value-judgement and is taken for granted and yet – in the rational plane – I can only conclude that there is nothing “unnatural” about this. In fact it is this emotional desire that species considered “attractive” should not become extinct when their time is due that is irrational. Normal or natural evolution is always a result of change. It is the result of species responding to change where the individuals of a species most suited to the changed circumstances continue and reproduce. Where the variety existing within a species is insufficient to provide any individuals who can survive and reproduce in the changed environment, the species dies out. It is said that about 90% of all species that have ever lived have become extinct. If they had not there would be no room for the 10% that exist today. Just as homo sapiens would never have evolved without the environmental changes which led to the extinction of the dinosaurs, most of the species alive today would not have succeeded their extinct ancestors if conditions had not led to their extinction. Where a species cannot compete with another – in whatever the prevailing circumstances – it dies out. It makes room for the more successful species.

Siberian Tiger Français : Tigre de sibérie Ita...

Siberian Tiger Français : (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

So what then is the objection to – say – tigers becoming extinct which is not just an emotional reaction to the disappearance of a magnificent but anachronistic creature?  The bio-diversity argument is not very convincing and is of little relevance. To artificially keep an unsuccessful species alive in a specially protected environment has no genetic value. It increases the mis-match between the existing environment and the genetic profile needed to survive in that environment. In fact the biodiversity argument is only relevant for “life” in general and never for any particular species or group of species.  It can serve to maintain a very wide range of genetic material in the event of a catastrophe such that some form of life has a chance of continuing. But given a particular environment biodiversity in itself is of little value.

Returning to the tiger as an example, the variety of individuals within the tiger population does not provide any which have the characteristics necessary for adapting to the reality of co-existing with humans in some form of urban living. Foxes, on the other hand, are evolving within our lifetimes. In a few more fox generations, urban foxes will out-compete their “wild” cousins who may well become extinct. But urban foxes will thrive. Many bird species and insects are throwing up the individuals to succeed in the shadow of the success of the human species. Bacteria and no doubt viruses are also throwing up their survivors. Some bacteria are changing faster than we would like. The polar bears who visit Churchill every year are evolving. Those who know how to forage in human communities have a distinct advantage over their less intelligent brethren. And of those who visit Churchill it is the ones who avoid attacking humans which have the best chance of surviving. (Polar bears are of course thriving and are in no danger of extinction – but that is another story). Langur and rhesus monkey troops in Delhi are in the process of becoming urbanised and “evolving” to succeed in their human-filled environment. These species are not domesticated. They are still wild but they are evolving – by selection – into new species suited to their new environment.

All those species which succeed into the future will be those which continue to “evolve” and have the characteristics necessary to thrive within the world as it is being shaped and changed by the most successful species that ever lived (though we cannot be sure how far some particular species of dinosaur may have advanced). Putting a tiger into a zoo or a “protected” environment actually only preserves the tiger in an “unsuccessful” form in an artificial environment. Does this really count as “saving the species”? We might be of more use to the future of the tiger species if we intentionally bred them to find a new space in a changed world  – perhaps as urban tigers which can co-exist with man.

If a polar bear were to hunt and kill a seal – even if it was the last individual of a seal species – it could be a matter of some regret but it would not generate any moral outrage. And then if the polar bears did not themselves adapt to find alternative food sources – then they too would fail to survive. The loss of a species can always be a matter of some regret but so is the death of any individual. Both are equally inevitable but the regret is mitigated by what comes after.

The thought occurs to me that while there is no doubt that human activity is altering the environment for many species, it is of little benefit to try and deny evolution. Species protection must consist of helping “threatened species”  to evolve and not in standing-still in some artificial environment.

Perhaps the answer is – for example – to breed and train a new species of Siberian tiger to manage vast reindeer herds where they could also be allowed to hunt and devour a few!

Carbon dioxide lags “global temperature” by 9 – 12 months

February 23, 2013

Just another case of an effect being taken as a cause and yet another nail in the coffin of the “CO2 causes global warming” fantasy.

A new paper in Global and Planetary Change Volume 100, January 2013, Pages 51–69

The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature 

by Ole HumlumKjell Stordahl and Jan-Erik Solheim

Highlights:

  1.  Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 11–12 months behind changes in global sea surface temperature. 
  2. Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 9.5–10 months behind changes in global air surface temperature.
  3. Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging about 9 months behind changes in global lower troposphere temperature.
  4. Changes in ocean temperatures explain a substantial part of the observed changes in atmospheric CO2 since January 1980.
  5. Changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes in human emissions.
Figure 5 Humlum et al 2013

Fig. 5. 12-month change of global atmospheric CO2 concentration (NOAA; green), change in global surface air temperature (NCDC; blue), land surface air temperature (NCDC; yellow) and ocean surface air temperature (NCDC; red dotted). All graphs are showing monthly values of DIFF12, the difference between the average of the last 12 months and the average for the previous 12 months for each data series.

Indignation over N. Korea’s 3rd nuclear test rings hypocritical and hollow

February 12, 2013

(Reuters)North Korea conducted its third nuclear test on Tuesday in defiance of U.N. resolutions, angering the United States and Japan and likely to infuriate its only major ally, China, and increase penalties against Pyongyang.

But I find the indignation from all countries and the castigation of the North Koreans for a “provocative” and “dangerous” and “destabilising” action less than convincing. “This is in defiance of the UN Security Council resolutions” is the current refrain but it smacks of bully politics and is not rational. Of course the prevailing reality of international affairs is that “might is right”. Whether it is Iraq invading Kuwait or the US invading Iraq or France invading Mali or Russia invading Georgia or Chinese and Japanese  maneuverings around their disputed islands, the ultimate arbiter of international relations is still military strength and the readiness to use force. Force of argument comes a poor second and simple lying a la Bush/Blair is used to bolster military actions.

Israel and her friends are understandably disturbed about the possibility of Iran testing and deploying nuclear weapons. But their threats and exhortations for Iran to refrain from the nuclear path obviously is to maintain their military advantage. But it smacks of hypocrisy and carries little logical weight so long as they maintain their own stocks of nuclear weapons.

The US and Russia maintain their overwhelming stockpiles of weapons while China maintains (and even increases) its own. Pakistan and India will not give up their weapons and there is domestic pressure for India to be at least as “strong” as China and for Pakistan to be at least as “strong” as India. Israel, of course,  will not even admit to having a stockpile and will never permit its crushing military superiority in the Middle East to be undermined. For the UK and France it is now just a matter of lost pride and national ego to maintain their remaining nuclear weapons capability.

Since 16th July 1945 over 2,000 nuclear tests have been carried out all over the world by 10 countries.

  • The United States conducted 1,032 tests between 1945 and 1992.
  • The Soviet Union carried out 715 tests between 1949 and 1990.
  • The United Kingdom carried out 45 tests between 1952 and 1991.
  • France carried out 210 tests between 1960 and 1996.
  • China carried out 45 tests between 1964 and 1996.
  • Israel and South Africa carried out a nuclear test in the South Atlantic in 1979
  • India conducted two tests in 1998 (India had also conducted one so-called peaceful nuclear explosion in 1974.)
  • Pakistan conducted two tests in 1998.
  • The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea announced that it had conducted a nuclear test in 2006 and again in 2009 and now one in 2013.

One estimate of nuclear weapons worldwide (as of December 2012) is here.

World Nuclear Stockpile Infographic

World Nuclear Stockpile Infographic: http://www.ploughshares.org

Moreover

Under NATO nuclear weapons sharing, the United States has provided nuclear weapons for Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Turkey to deploy and store. This involves pilots and other staff of the “non-nuclear” NATO states practicing, handling, and delivering the U.S. nuclear bombs, and adapting non-U.S. warplanes to deliver U.S. nuclear bombs.

Personally I believe that the N. Korean nuclear program is due to 2 things:

  1. a paranoia about what the South will do, and
  2. an attempt to develop a better bargaining position before opening up

But I have difficulty to see their 3rd nuclear test as any great threat to world peace (compared say to the possibility of Israel bombing Iran or the Arab Spring going wrong or an expanding African adventure for France and other European countries longing for a return to colonial times).

CO2 is bad, bad, bad……

February 12, 2013

Global warming morphs to climate change which morphs to extreme weather but CO2 is just plain bad!!!

CO2 is bad

UK has enough shale gas for a millenium

February 9, 2013

Shale gas reserve estimates keep on increasing. We have the peculiar situation where Russia and some of the large oil companies attack shale gas only because some of their existing business may be threatened. But they all also have strong positions with shale gas. But what is clear is that “peak gas” has been postponed by several hundred years and there is no energy crisis in sight.

Peak Gas will never come

The Times has seen advance copies of the British Geological Survey’s new estimates of shale gas reserves in the UK:

Britain could have enough shale gas to heat every home for 1,500 years, according to new estimates that suggest reserves are 200 times greater than experts previously believed. The British Geological Survey is understood to have increased dramatically its official estimate of the amount of shale gas to between 1,300 trillion and 1,700 trillion cubic feet, dwarfing its previous estimate of 5.3 trillion cubic feet.

According to GWPF:

According to industry sources, the revised estimates will be published by the Government next month, fuelling hopes that new “fracking” techniques to capture trapped resources will result in cheaper energy bills.

It is thought that it will be technically possible to recover up to a fifth of this gas, making Britain’s shale rocks potentially as bountiful as those in the US. Experts stressed that it was still much too early to say how much of the gas it would be economic to get out of the ground to heat homes and help to generate electricity. 

In an interview with The Times today, Ed Davey, the Energy and Climate Change Secretary, tries to downplay hopes of a shale gas glut in the UK pushing down household heating bills, which are at record highs. “It is not the golden goose. The experts are clear that they do not expect this to have a major impact on the gas price.”

The UK Onshore Operators Group (UKOOG), which also represents other onshore oil and gas producers, is aiming to win over public opinion about the shale gas industry, in particular by countering claims that the process of fracking poses an environmental menace.

The shale gas industry is gearing up for a year of intense activity after the Government lifted an 18-month moratorium on fracking in December. The ban was imposed in May 2011 after Cuadrilla Resources, the explorer backed by Lord Browne of Madingley, the former chief executive of BP, set off dozens of earth tremors when it began fracking on sites near Blackpool. The company intends to resume fracking this summer to find out more about the size and commercial potential of its reserves.

Other explorers sitting on vast shale gas deposits will also apply for fracking licences soon. Government officials are preparing to hold an onshore oil and gas licensing round this year which could result in more parts of the UK being opened up for shale exploration.

 

Are climate scientists like Lance Armstrong? When will they admit their models are doped?

January 21, 2013

P. Gosselin at No Tricks Zone  is quite right in pointing out the enormous political problems in now admitting that the global warming hypothesis which has been accepted dogma for 3 decades may not be correct after all.

The big question now circulating through the stunned European media, governments and activist organisations is how could the warming stop have happened? Moreover, how do we now explain it to the public?

His recent posts got me to making the parallels between the AGW climate “scientists” and Lance Armstrong.

Both

  • have posed as heroes “saving” the world / sport
  • have promoted dogma based on lies for many years,
  • have made fortunes in the process,
  • have lied and cheated to maintain the initial fraud,
  • have attacked and tried to destroy those who would disclose their fraud,
  • have – on the side – led to some good work along the way (in cancer research and in many disciplines connected to climate), and
  • will come out of the cesspit smelling of roses

I wonder if the Nobel Peace Committee could revoke their decision and if Al Gore and the IPCC could be stripped of their Nobel prize?  They can both afford to give the money back.

Major German Daily Carries Front-Page Headline: “Global Warming Keeps Us Waiting!…CO2 Over-Estimated?”

Warmist Spiegel/Euro-Media Concede Global Warming Has Ended…Models Were Wrong…Scientists Are Baffled!

Lance Armstrong, Livestrong And Climate Research

Weather Service Warns of “Shock Cooling” Coming To Europe…4th Bitter Cold Euro-Winter In 5 Years Shaping Up!