Archive for the ‘Alarmism’ Category

When plagiarism is not plagiarism : part 2

January 17, 2011

Plagiarism has never been considered misconduct in the political arena. And it would seem it is not considered misconduct when purported science is used in a political or religious cause.

I posted earlier about how plagiarism is not plagiarism in the eyes of a journal editor when it is done in his own journal.

https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2010/12/31/ethics-of-journals-when-plagiarism-is-not-plagiarism/

Steve McIntyre reports on another case where science is subordinated to political and religious beliefs.

http://climateaudit.org/2011/01/16/trenberth-and-lifting-text-verbatim-2/

Apparently plagiarism is not plagiarism when carried out by Kevin Trenberth in support of his religious beliefs. But the actions reported here to hastily introduce attributions wherever plagiarism had been detected, suggest that Trenberth realises that if his scientific misconduct is shown then his religious positions are undermined and discredited.

“Not inconsistent with man-made global warming” !!

January 15, 2011

Climate Science – if there is such a thing – had long ago abandoned science to become a lobby for “global warming theory”. But the “scientists” are plumbing new depths.

It has not taken long for “climate scientists” to claim that all extreme weather events (heat wave in Russia, floods in Pakistan, coldest December in 100 years , droughts in Australia and now floods in Brazil and Australia)  are all “not inconsistent with global warming” implying by some strange, convoluted logic that all these weather events (which are also consistent with history repeating itself) somehow add to the body of “evidence” which “proves” that man-made global warming is happening. There have even been crack-pot scientists with such a vested interest in the “man-made global warming” ideology  who have found it possible to blame volcanic activity and even the earthquake in Haiti on “global warming”!!!

The current strength of the La Ninã conditions are perfectly consistent with other theories based on ocean variation and the frigid winters are quite consistent with the quiet Sun (which went spotless again yesterday). All current weather is also consistent with man-made effects being totally negligible and instead being dominated by the sun’s cycles and with the oceans as the primary vehicle for transporting heat around the globe. Weather is not climate and in fact none of the “extreme” weather events  are outside the range of weather variations that have been experienced over the last 1000 years.

The floods in Brazil have claimed over 500 lives and in Australia – which is far better prepared – the death toll will likely be between 20 – 30. In Australia where a higher flood occurred in 1974 in Brisbane voices are beginning to be raised that the “global warming” lobby have actually prevented the use of dams and implementation of proposed water management policies which could have been able to better manage these regular and recurring flood conditions.

The history of floods in Brisbane is telling:

Highest annual flood peaks for Brisbane

Highest annual flood peaks for Brisbane

The floods this year in Queensland are nothing new. Why would this flood be evidence of man-made global warming but not the floods of the 1800s? In fact the history of these weather conditions in Brisbane is not inconsistent with global cooling, the coming of an ice-age or an apocalyptic end to the earth in 2012!

thepunch.com.au

Any scientist who is concerned with science and not with religion, politics or defending his past conclusions would know that being “not inconsistent” with some theory carries no weight in a scientific proof – but it does sound so credible in a TV sound-bite.

But we can expect that over the next few years that every natural disaster or extreme weather event will be taken by the members of a dying religion as being “not inconsistent with” and therefore as proof of man-made global warming.

 

And yet another irreproducible, irrefutable result!!

January 10, 2011

From EurekAlert:

New paper in Nature Geoscience examines inertia of carbon dioxide emissions

New research indicates the impact of rising CO2 levels in the Earth’s atmosphere will cause unstoppable effects to the climate for at least the next 1000 years, causing researchers to estimate a collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet by the year 3000, and an eventual rise in the global sea level of at least four metres.

The study, to be published in the Jan. 9 Advanced Online Publication of the journal Nature Geoscience, is the first full climate model simulation to make predictions out to 1000 years from now. It is based on best-case, ‘zero-emissions’ scenarios constructed by a team of researchers from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (an Environment Canada research lab at the University of Victoria) and the University of Calgary.

The Daily Mail headline proclaims

(and perhaps – following Nostradamus – we should only use quatrains !)

Sea levels will rise by at least 13ft in next 1,000 years, claim scientists

Global sea levels will rise

By at least 13ft in the next 1,000 years

As a result of carbon dioxide emissions,

Scientists have warned.

 

The ‘unstoppable’ impact of global warming

Will cause a catastrophic collapse

Of the West Antarctic ice sheet

By the year 3000.

 

“Ongoing climate change following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions” by Nathan P. Gillett, Vivek K. Arora, Kirsten Zickfeld, Shawn J. Marshall and William J. Merryfield will be available online at http://www.nature.com/ngeo/index.html

Or perhaps it should have been published here:

The Journal of Irreproducible Results


Ozone layer hits record thickness in Sweden: Was there ever an ozone hole problem?

January 9, 2011

Lately there has been an increasing view that some of the catastrophe scenarios about the ozone hole which led to the Montreal Protocol of 1989 were exagerrated and based on poor science. The effects of humans on ozone variations as opposed to natural variations may have been exaggerated. In fact there are now some suggestions that the actions taken were not only unnecessary but that they have not had much to do with the natural increase of ozone layer thickness observed in recent times.

The Local reports:

Sweden’s government weather agency reported on Friday that the ozone layer over southern Sweden reached its thickest levels at the end of last year, surpassing the previous record set in 1991.

Sweden’s Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Institut, SMHI) explained that the weather was particularly favourable at the end of 2010 and it explain why the ozone layer was especially thick at the time. “It is a step in the right direction, but it is still too early to say that the ozone layer has recovered. The favourable weather situation over the last few months has contributed to a record high,” said Weine Josefsson, a meteorologist at SMHI, in a statement on Friday.
The annual value of the ozone layer’s thickness over Norrköping in 2010 stood at a new high of 351.7 Dobson units (DU). The previous record was set in 1991 at 341.8 DU. The November and December values in particular set new records among the measurements regularly made at SMHI since 1988. ……….  Even in Norrland in the country’s north, the values have been positive in the last year. The ozone layer has been measured regularly in Vindeln northwest of Umeå in northern Sweden since 1991 and the latest results were also positive in this area.
However, it is not possible to record complete ozone measurements in the winter, so it is uncertain whether a record was set there as well at the end of last year. In November and December, air flows were affected by a special weather situation over western Europe, resulting in an extra thick ozone layer over this part of the world in these two months.
It is possible that the restrictions on ozone-depleting substances proposed in the Montreal Protocol in 1987 have also contributed to the thickening of the ozone layer. However, this type of measure is effective over a long period of time and it is difficult to distinguish the effect of natural variations in this case.

Methane from BP oil spill has vanished – presumed digested by microbes

January 9, 2011
Molecule of methane.

methane molecule: Image via Wikipedia

A new paper online in Science:

Science DOI: 10.1126/science.1199697 A Persistent Oxygen Anomaly Reveals the Fate of Spilled Methane in the Deep Gulf of Mexico, by John D. Kessler, David L. Valentine, Molly C. Redmond, Mengran Du, Eric W. Chan, Stephanie D. Mendes, Erik W. Quiroz, Christie J. Villanueva, Stephani S. Shusta, Lindsay M. Werra, Shari A. Yvon-Lewis and Thomas C. Weber

It adds to the growing body of evidence that the oceans with the help of microbes are much more resilient than they have been assumed to be.

https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2010/09/12/microbes-ate-the-bp-oil-plume/

https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2010/10/20/microbes-consume-methane-10-to-100-times-faster-than-thought/

As Science News puts it:

Methane, the predominant hydrocarbon produced by the BP blowout last year, has all but vanished from Gulf of Mexico waters, a new study reports — presumably eaten up by marine bacteria. That hadn’t been expected to happen for years.

Two-thirds of the hydrocarbons released by the BP accident were forms of natural gas: largely methane, ethane and propane. While Gulf microbes quickly began devouring the larger gas molecules, they initially left tiny methane — which accounted for an estimated 87.5 percent of the gas initially emitted — largely untouched.

Some of the authors of the new paper had reported in the Oct. 8Science finding almost no microbial breakdown of BP methane in June, about a month and a half into the 83-day gusher.

Rates of biodegradation in subsea plumes, where this gas had been accumulating, “indicated methane would persist for many, many years, if not almost a decade,” observes John Kessler, a chemical oceanographer at Texas A&M University in College Station and an author of that earlier report.

To begin quantifying just how slowly that breakdown was proceeding, he and his colleagues returned to the Gulf for three research cruises between August 18 and October 4. Their sampling at more than 200 sites turned up no BP methane. In fact, concentrations of the gas in seawater throughout the spill zone were lower than typical background concentrations for the Gulf, these researchers report online January 6 in Science.

“We were caught off guard,” Kessler says. “But that highlights the beauty of the scientific process. You put together hypotheses based on the information at hand and test them. And whether we’re right or wrong, at the end of the day we’ll have learned something new about the system.”

The new paper’s conclusions “are quite consistent with what we’ve seen,” says microbial ecologist Terry Hazen of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California. On August 24, his team was the first to report online in Science that BP oil plumes had disappeared.

 

UK Met Office fears ridicule from public more than from their paymasters!

January 5, 2011

The UK Met Office is busy spinning the story that it actually did forecast the coldest December in the UK in a 100 years but secretly informed only the cabinet of the UK government about this in October 2010. Secret forecasts for fear of being wrong! After all kings of old also had their own private soothsayers to study the entrails but they were usually executed if they could not spin their way out of wrong forecasts. But the Met Office story does not stand up and their credibility is in tatters.

The UK Met office (as an institution) is one of the most ardent supporters of Global Warming dogma which is concerned with climate not weather. This can only be a “political” choice or an act of faith since climate trends are of little significance for their main task of weather forecasting. While weather is only a subset of climate I find it difficult to believe that poor weather forecasting can be a sound bottom-up basis for forecasting climate.

I say that climate trends are of little significance for detailed weather forecasting because climate change considers temperature changes of about one degree per century or less whereas the daily variation at any particular location is typically 10 to 15 degrees, seasonal variations at any location are around 40 – 50°C over a year and geographical variation around the globe is also upto 50 °C at any moment in time. Any climate trends of the order of 1°C per century are then immaterial for the immediate weather forecast.

At a cost of some £200 million per year they do forecast the weather with some accuracy for upto about 5 days ahead but are notoriously poor with their long range forecasts (but I note that even their short term forecasts are not more accurate – statistically – than the simple statement that “the weather tomorrow will be the same as today”). As recently as October 2010 the Met Office published weather maps showing warm expectations for November, December and January – but they insist they did not make any long range forecasts. We are told by Harrabin of the BBC that this was because of their sensitivity to the ridicule poured on them after their forecasts of a “barbecue summer” in 2009 and a mild 2009/2010 winter proved spectacularly wrong. But , we are assured by Harrabin, they actually did forecast – correctly – a cold and snowy winter but only informed the UK cabinet secretly.

Presumably any future ridicule or budget cuts by the cabinet of the UK Government for being wrong would be preferable to any public ridicule!!

In any event the cabinet did not do very much with this confidential information (perhaps it was anonymous) and all the counties were woefully unprepared.

Sources:

Why Munich Re’s report on natural catastrophes in 2010 is alarmist and self-serving

January 4, 2011

Munich Re – like all insurance companies – is in the business of alarmism. The insurance business relies on the total risk perceived by all the buyers of insurance products being significantly higher than the actual risk that materialises. The bigger this difference the greater the insurance company’s profits.

In a new press release Munich Re presents its overall picture of natural catastrophes in 2010.

Several major catastrophes in 2010 resulted in substantial losses and an exceptionally high number of fatalities. The overall picture last year was dominated by an accumulation of severe earthquakes to an extent seldom experienced in recent decades.

The facts are not in doubt but Munich Re’s opinionated conclusion and the introduction of global warming into the same breath as earthquakes and extreme weather is intellectually bankrupt and blatantly self-serving:

The high number of weather-related natural catastrophes and record temperatures both globally and in different regions of the world provide further indications of advancing climate change.

Munich Re’s business is best served if the perception of risk is very high, the actual risk is much lower than than that perceived and more and more people take to insuring these exaggerated risks. Munich Re – as other insurance companies – have become expert at taking real data, blending it with unjustified opinions and then applying a totally bogus “pondus” to exaggerating the perceived risk.

(more…)

Japan shelves carbon emissions trading scheme

December 29, 2010

Japan joins the growing list of nations who have shelved, postponed or cancelled carbon trading schemes (and there is not a single carbon trading scheme anywhere which is not built on fraud).

Reuters reports:

Japan postponed plans for a national emissions trading scheme on Tuesday, bowing to powerful business groups that warned of job losses as they compete against overseas rivals facing fewer emissions regulations.

The government has submitted a climate bill to parliament that includes a one-year deadline to design a national trading scheme. After Tuesday’s delay, that bill faces revisions in the next parliamentary session that begins in January.

The decision is a blow to the European Union’s hopes that other top greenhouse gas polluters will introduce emissions trading schemes and follows setbacks to similar efforts in the United States and Australia.

A U.N. meeting in Cancun, Mexico, this month failed to clear uncertainty over a global climate framework beyond 2012. This is likely to cause some big emitters to take their time in rolling out tougher greenhouse gas regulations, particularly for carbon dioxide (CO2) from burning fossil fuels such as coal and oil.

Neighboring South Korea has delayed the introduction of its emissions trading laws into parliament until February because of business concerns.

Weather may not be climate but weather is a subset of climate !

December 27, 2010

The cold wave in India led to 4 deaths on 26th December 2010: image ndtv.com

This winter’s extremes are all due to Global Warming I hear!!

My incredulity at the arrogance of global warming dogma and its high priests is getting rather strained. But gullibility and greed remain inherent in the human condition.

First white Christmas in Atlanta since 1882, NCDC gets new snow record in their own backyard

Europe hit with coldest December in 100 years

Sweden in ‘coldest December in 100 years’

Coldest December since records began as temperatures plummet to minus 10C  bringing travel chaos across Britain

NSW hit by snow, wind, floods – and locusts

Wintry weather brings snow to Australia in midsummer

Icy highway causes traffic jam in Guangdong

Cold snap drops Beijing’s temperature to 10-year low

(Korea) Lowest temperatures in 30 years

Cold wave kills 4 in north India

North India reels under severe cold wave

Green hijack of the UK Met Office

December 26, 2010

Christopher Booker has an interesting article in The Sunday Telegraph describing how a supposedly science-based institution can be perverted by political dogma; in this case global warming dogma perverting the forecasts of the UK Met Office.

By far the biggest story of recent days, of course, has been the astonishing chaos inflicted, to a greater or lesser extent, on all of our lives by the fact that we are not only enjoying what is predicted to be the coldest December since records began in 1659, but also the harshest of three freezing winters in a row….. But central to all this – as the cry goes up: “Why wasn’t Britain better prepared?” – has been the bizarre role of the Met Office…… in these past three years the Met Office’s forecasting record has become a national joke. Ever since it predicted a summer warmer and drier than average in 2007 – followed by some of the worst floods in living memory – its forecasts have been so unerringly wrong that even the chief adviser to our Transport Secretary might have noticed.

The real question, however, is why has the Met Office become so astonishingly bad at doing the job for which it is paid nearly £200 million a year – in a way which has become so stupendously damaging to our country?

The answer is that in the past 20 years, as can be seen from its website, the Met Office has been hijacked from its proper role to become wholly subservient to its obsession with global warming. (At one time it even changed its name to the Met Office “for Weather and Climate Change”.) This all began when its then-director John Houghton became one of the world’s most influential promoters of the warmist gospel. He, more than anyone else, was responsible for setting up the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and remained at the top of it for 13 years. It was he who, in 1990, launched the Met Office’s Hadley Centre for Climate Change, closely linked to the Climatic Research Unit in East Anglia (CRU), at the centre of last year’s Climategate row, which showed how the little group of scientists at the heart of the IPCC had been prepared to bend their data and to suppress any dissent from warming orthodoxy.

The full article is here.