Archive for the ‘Behaviour’ Category

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“When you meet the unbelievers, strike off their heads” – Quran 47:4

November 19, 2014

It is a good thing there is no such thing as a Paradise where these IS vermin might come to gather. And if there was, it would be a veritable Hell.

article-kassig2-1116

image: http://terrortrendsbulletin.com/

No doubt they will quote scripture in their defense.

Quran 47:4 sūrat muḥammad

If you encounter the disbelievers in a battle, strike-off their heads. Take them as captives when they are defeated. Then you may set them free as a favor to them, with or without a ransom, when the battle is over. This is the Law. Had God wanted, He could have granted them (unbelievers) victory, but He wants to test you through each other. The deeds of those who are killed for the cause of God will never be without virtuous results.

translation Muhammad Sarwar

But a mass beheading of unarmed defeated men?

And what would be a fitting treatment for these vermin when they are captured?

May their genes shrivel and wither away. It is a travesty that human evolution has not yet eliminated these defectives.

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Measuring the success of the War on Terror

November 18, 2014

How should we judge the success of the War on Terror?

Going by the numbers, terrorism has a high success rate and is increasingly being used as a political tool. George Bush may have unwittingly done more than anybody else – by declaring a War on Terror – to legitimise the use of terror as a tool of effecting political change. He only elevated and enshrined “Terror” as an object worthy of State warfare. My working theory is that giving Terror this elevated status only increases its attractiveness as a legitimate tool for any group which perceives itself to be oppressed or wishes to foment rebellion.

The 2014 Global Terrorism Index has just been released with data upto 2013.

KEY FACTS:

  • 17,958 people were killed in terrorist attacks last year, that’s 61% more than the previous year.
  • 82% of all deaths from terrorist attack occur in just 5 countries: Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Syria.
  • Last year terrorism was dominated by four groups: the Taliban, Boko Haram, ISIL, and al Qa’ida.
  • More than 90% of all terrorist attacks occur in countries that have gross human rights violations.
  • 40 times more people are killed by homicides than terrorist attacks.

Why not declare a War on Murder since murder kills 40 times more people than terror?

In 2000 deaths from terrorism were 3,361.

The report is here and I have extracted just two telling diagrams. The number of terror deaths have increased dramatically and the “success rate” of terrorist actions remains high at about 90%.

Terrorism Deaths

Terrorism Deaths

Terror success rates

Terror success rates

 

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Don’t rely on politicians to avoid another financial crash; build your own defences

November 17, 2014

I am no expert but I tend to pay attention to the behaviour of experts and those who are supposed to be experts. And I  get worried when politicians start painting alarmist pictures because that indicates that they have no idea what to do.

The number of voices warning about another financial crash are increasing and getting louder. That there are always some financial pundits warning about a coming crash is nothing out of the ordinary. But the number of pundits making such projections (here and here for example) is getting worrying. The US debt is still much too large and is not really being addressed except by printing money. Japan has entered recession. Leftist governments in Europe are getting tired of austerity and good housekeeping (France, Sweden for example) and are preparing to increase public expenditure and to raise taxes. Markets seem overvalued and unless Asian countries – mainly India and China – start consuming and manufacturing again, it is difficult to see a real motor to drive the global economy. Low oil prices will help but the signs of an upswing are not visible yet. No bank is so big that it cannot fail.

It is worth noting that some big investors are also circling the wagons and building up their defenses – and not least among them is Warren Buffet. But what is even more ominous is that the political leaders of the G20 nations are beginning to make noises as if a financial crash is a real risk and outside of their control. David Cameron’s warnings yesterday about a possible financial crash were made immediately following the G20 meeting in Australia. They sound like political positioning when faced with an intractable problem. As if the G20 leaders find themselves powerless and unable to come up with any joint actions to avoid a future financial crash.

The Guardian:

David Cameron has issued a stark message that “red warning lights are flashing on the dashboard of the global economy” in the same way as when the financial crash brought the world to its knees six years ago.

Writing in the Guardian at the close of the G20 summit in Brisbane, Cameron says there is now “a dangerous backdrop of instability and uncertainty” that presents a real risk to the UK recovery, adding that the eurozone slowdown is already having an impact on British exports and manufacturing.

His warning comes days after the Bank of England governor, Mark Carney, claimed a spectre of stagnation was haunting Europe. The International Monetary Fund managing director, Christine Lagarde, expressed fears in Brisbane that a diet of high debt, low growth and unemployment may yet become “the new normal in Europe”.

The message is that the G20 countries are just living in hope and have no concrete plans to avoid a crash. I would have thought that the bottom line is – and always will be – of living within one’s means. And that can only ultimately mean reducing public spending and reducing tax burdens. In any event it is imprudent to be relying on the politicians to avoid a crash. And that means that each individual is on his own and would be well advised to build up whatever defenses he can.

Whether a crash comes or not, and the main threat is, I think, over the next 12- 18 months, it is worth being a little circumspect over the next few months. My list of gradual actions for myself for the next 9-12 months are:

  1. Pay off as much debt as possible
  2. Call in my loans
  3. Protect capital by reducing overall risk exposure
  4. Get out of equities which may be in a bubble (say P/E >30 or where values have risen >50% in 1 year)
  5. Hold onto my blue chips (but check how blue they really are)
  6. Increase my own liquidity towards 25% of assets and in more than one “hard” currency
  7. Have more than one bank
  8. Shift away from the banks which perform poorly in stress tests
  9. Shift away from corporate bonds to government bonds (higher credit rating countries wherever possible)
  10. Buy some gold or silver (gold or silver coins not jewelry)
  11. Defer capital expenditure for the next 12 months wherever possible (car replacement, new kitchen, house extension…)

 

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“Organic farming a catastrophe for food security” – Swedish researchers

November 16, 2014

Most of Sweden is brainwashed into thinking that anything claiming to be “environmentally friendly” or “climate smart” must be a good thing. No politician or newspaper has the courage to challenge environmental political correctness. Normally they are quite rational but when it comes to questioning global warming or GM ideology, they leave all their critical faculties behind and just parrot the dogma. The reluctance to challenge and question borders on political cowardice. “Organic” and “ecological” and “environmentally friendly” and “climate smart” are meaningless labels which have now come to be used to justify lack of critical thinking and to silence opposition.

It does not require much deep thought to see that organic and ecologic farming which produces much lower yields is – inevitably – much more expensive than the conventional – and much more intensive – farming that has been developed over the last century. Global food production is still increasing and there is no global shortage of food today, even though the population exceeds 7 billion. Grain production in 2014 broke all manner of previous records – by using modern, intensive methods. Of course there are still serious inequality and food distribution problems around the world and there is still much undernourishment and hunger. There is actually enough food today to feed the world but it is not all affordable or cannot all be distributed. But the simple fact is that more people are being fed today than ever before in human history. Malthus has been proven spectacularly wrong precisely because of the advances in intensive farming. Global population will reach a peak in about 80 years. Thereafter population will decline but we need to be increasing both the quantity and the quality and, above all, the affordability of food for some time yet.

In Sweden there is a blind romanticism prevailing about anything claimed to be “ecologic” or “organic” or “environmentally friendly”. It shows up everywhere. It is an axiom of all advertising copy that labels such as “green” or “climate smart” or environmentally friendly” are necessary – no matter how convoluted the argument – to get through to the unquestioning and uncritical Swedish consumer. On matters labelled environmental, Sweden is almost totalitarian in its politics. The courage to challenge outmoded and obsolete – but politically correct – dogma is an attribute that is particularly lacking in Swedish politics (and in the media). Consensus has become the new god and seems always to trump facts. Paying lip service to democratic forms has become much more important than questioning the substance. Continuing down the wrong path is more socially acceptable than questioning the path.

So there is much controversy about an article in Svenska Dagbladet today by four reputed agricultural scientists who point out the blindingly obvious – that shifting to ecologic farming would be a catastrophe for food security. The article is by

  • Holger Kirchmann, Professor of plant nutrition and soil conservation, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU),
  • Lars Bergström, Professor of Water Quality at SLU,
  • Thomas Kätterer, Professor of Systems Ecology at SLU,
  • Rune Andersson, former program manager at SLU.

Organic farming – the road to starvation.

The belief that organic farming is good for the climate and produces better food is wrong. Only organic farming would be a disaster for future food security and would put further pressure on the environment at a very high cost, writes four researchers from the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), 
Many today believe that organic farming is good for the environment and that it also provides safe and healthy food. Sales increased by 30 percent during the first half of 2014 (DN 4/11) and the state supports organic farming with many millions. But virtually all popular beliefs about organic farming are incorrect. We discuss this in our book “The ecological dream.” Our conclusions in the book – based on serious research, our own and from others – are unambiguous:

  • Consumers get no better food or any better environment if they buy organic food.
  • The extensive subsidies for organic farming – about 500 million kronor a year – would have greater social benefit if used in improving the environmental effects of mainstream agriculture. 
  • Organic foods are not free of toxins.
  • Organic food is not more nutritious than conventionally grown food. 
  • Increased organic farming would severely affect food security, both in Sweden and worldwide.
  • Organic farming does not give a lower input of nutrients to surface and groundwater.
  • Organic farming is not better for the climate.

The most drastic effect is that we will only produce half as much food on the arable land we have today. Official statistics show that agricultural yields decrease between 30 and 60 percent depending on the crops we grow – at least for grass and most of the potatoes.

To compensate for the loss of food, we must cultivate a much larger area of arable land than today. If you calculate that yields are on average 40 percent lower in organic farming, it means that at 100 percent organic growing needs acreage to be increased by a further 1.7 million hectares, from the current 2.6 million acres. That much arable land has never before existed in Sweden. ………. 

My translation of the article from the Swedish is here (pdf): Organic farming – the road to starvation SvD

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Posted in Agriculture, Behaviour, Food, Sweden | 4 Comments »

“That demmed elusive submarine”

November 14, 2014

They sought it here, then they sought it there,

The Swedish Navy looked everywhere,

It moves by stealth, it can’t be seen,

That demmed elusive submarine

with apologies to Baroness Emma Orczy and her Scarlet Pimpernel

The Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces, Sverker Göranson, held a press conference today. He asserted that it was now confirmed that a foreign mini-submarine of unknown (read Russian) nationality had violated Swedish territorial waters in the Stockholm archipelago on October 17th. It is not known how it got there and it is not known how it got away.

Prime Minister Stefan Löfven was also at the press conference, “We don’t know who is behind this, but it is totally unacceptable,” he said.

Löfven warned the world at large that Sweden would not put up with this sort of thing and, please, not to do it again. If it happened again he was even prepared to use military force! Neither the Russians or any other foreign power has claimed responsibility. Of course, in order to use military force it would be necessary to detect any incursion somewhat faster than one month later. In this case the warning about under water activity by a foreign power was first raised not by the military’s warning systems but by a “credible informant”.

The military is, I suppose, reasonably satisfied since the defense budget has been increased. This should now also add some impetus to the campaign to join NATO.

Source: Swedish Radio

Foreign mini sub found in Swedish waters – confirmed

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Jimmy Saville, Rolf Harris and now Bill Cosby — but their predatory behaviour had accomplices

November 14, 2014

Many apparently wholesome and high profile figures in the entertainment industry are now being revealed as ravenous, sexual predators.

But this post is not about the predators themselves. They were bad enough. I suppose their behaviour is a case of being caught up in the maelstrom in the “behavioural field of fame and riches ” which makes it impossible for any kind of “behavioural moral compass” to operate. The latest revelations about Bill Cosby’s behaviour for over 30 years follows that revealed about Jimmy Saville’s predatory behaviour and that of the archetypal “good guy” Rolf Harris (who is now serving a prison sentence). There are a number of other cases, of rich and famous individuals in the entertainment industry, who preyed upon the “pretty young things” aspiring to make a break-through or who were just overwhelmed by the glitter and glamour, which are now going through “due process”.

I suppose all the rich and famous are subject to false claims of exploitation. But the police and media and lawyers who received claims against high profile figures seem to have dismissed them all as being false. But these predators who were all rich and famous did not prey and feed in isolation. They were always surrounded by their fawning entourages who could not have been unaware. Some actively helped their principals to feed. How come they were all silent? And their silence makes them all complicit. Some just waited for the principal to feed and then stuffed themselves with their leavings.  Or – as in the case of Jimmy Saville – the police and press were intimidated by his “high-level” contacts within their own organisations. What happened to all their moral compasses? One law for the rich?

The morality of our behaviour – it seems – depends upon the field in which we operate. Could it be that when we enter their “behavioural field of fame and riches” our moral compasses also go haywire?

As one of Cosby’s victims writes in the Washington Post:

The entertainment world is rife with famous men who use their power to victimize and then silence young women who look up to them. Even when their victims speak out, the industry and the public turn blind eyes; these men’s celebrity, careers, and public adulation continue to thrive. Even now, Cosby has a new comedy special coming out on Netflix and NBC is set to give him a new sitcom.

Fixing this problem demands more than public shaming. For Cosby to commit these assaults against multiple victims over several years, there had to be a network of willfully blind wallflowers at best, or people willing to aid him in committing these sexual crimes at worst. As I told the Daily Mail, when I was a teenager, his assistants transported me to hotels and events to meet him. When I blacked out at Cosby’s home, there were several staffers with us. My agent, who introduced me to Cosby, had me take a pregnancy test when I returned from my last trip with him. Talent agents, hotel staff, personal assistants and others who knowingly made arrangements for Cosby’s criminal acts or overlooked them should be held equally accountable.

 

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MH 370 to be declared “lost” and search to end by year-end

November 12, 2014

It has been over 8 months now since MH370 vanished on March 8th with all its 239 crew and passengers.

That the mystery continues, in these times of almost universal surveillance, where even distant comets passing by Mars can be observed in real time, is unfathomable. To say that black magic was involved is almost as irrefutable as any other proposed explanation. But it was not black magic. It was almost certainly a “black operation”, an “engineered affair”. Somebody knows what happened. And what I find equally disturbing is that the world can so easily put the whole unexplained, chilling episode aside and move on.

The relatives of the victims and the unfortunate Malaysian Airlines cannot find any kind of closure. But by the end of the year the plane could be officially declared “lost” and that would allow the search to be ended. That would allow Malaysian Airlines to make “final” compensation and then calculate a liability cap and draw a financial line.

NZ Herald: Speaking to The New Zealand Herald today, the airline’s commercial director, Hugh Dunleavy said that it was waiting for the aircraft to be officially declared lost after going missing in March with 239 people on board. It is thought to have flown into the Indian Ocean off the coast of Western Australia. 

The Australian and Malaysian governments were working together to set a date to formally announce the loss of MH370 and that was likely to be set by the end of the year.

“We don’t have a final date but once we’ve had an official loss recorded we can work with the next of kin on the full compensation payments for those families.” ….. 

Dunleavy said the Montreal Convention had set the ceiling on compensation at around US$175,000 although passengers could take legal action to pursue higher payments.

“We will ensure we do compensate them for the loss of their loved ones through our insurers,” he said. ….. 

“We are trying to hurry (compensation)it up as much as we can but some of these things are outside the scope of the airline itself. If they’re not happy with the compensation then they seek legal advice and move ahead, then once they come in our people will assess them and respond.”

Paying out relatives of those killed aboard MH17 over the Ukraine was more straightforward.

“We know exactly what happened with that aircraft and we can move ahead with the full compensation of family members aboard that aircraft,” Dunleavy said at the end of his visit which included meetings with travel agents and the tourism bodies.

I can understand the Commercial Director’s frustration at not knowing what happened and not being able to assess the final liability. Dr. Hugh Noel Dunleavy is the Head of Network, Alliance & Planning and Director of Commercial at Malaysian Airlines and was appointed in January 2012.

 

MH370: Theoretical Search Area

Even the calculations of the “theoretical search area” could just be a red herring. Nothing is believable and therefore everything is possible.

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A hierarchy of parents

November 11, 2014

Adoption, abortion and IVF or surrogacy followed by adoption are all regulated mainly from the needs and desires of the prospective parents. Abortion is almost on demand. Gay couples exploit surrogacy possibilities to acquire children on demand. Adoption of orphans or abandoned children is supposed to be based on the best interests of the child but the child rarely gets the chance to choose.

But what if a child could choose its parents ………

Assume that wealth is just a qualifying criteria and does not dominate or corrupt the regulations. Assume further that unstable individuals, paedophiles, sexual predators and unstable relationships have magically been excluded. Let us take for granted that all individuals have qualified by passing a basic “parenting competence” test. (And why isn’t parenting competence a subject that is taught?)

How then would a child choose its parents?

My perception of a child’s preferences:

Category 1 – Preferred

  1. Biological mother and biological father

Category 2 – Acceptable

  1. Biological mother and step-father
  2. Biological father and step-mother
  3. Unrelated heterosexual couple

Category 3 – Conditionally Acceptable

  1. Single mother (biological)
  2. Single father (biological)
  3. Biological mother and lesbian partner (girl-child only)
  4. Biological father and gay partner (boy-child only)
  5. Unrelated lesbian couple (girl child only)
  6. Unrelated gay couple (boy-child only)

Category 4 – Disallowed

  1. Single unrelated mother
  2. Single unrelated father
  3. Biological mother and lesbian partner for a boy-child
  4. Biological father and gay partner for a girl-child
  5. Unrelated lesbian couple for a boy-child
  6. Unrelated gay couple for a girl-child

Given a choice and everything else being equal, no child – I think – would prefer anything other than having its biological father and mother as its parents.

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Anniversaries: Berlin Wall fall – 25 years, Kristallnacht -76 years

November 9, 2014

The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 was something I watched unfold, live, on TV 25 years ago. And it is surely something to be remembered and celebrated.

But tonight is also the 76th anniversary of Kristallnacht in 1938 when the Nazis went on their rampage against Jews throughout Germany and Austria and East Prussia. That needs no celebration but it does need to be remembered.

And without Kristallnacht there would have been no Cold War and no Berlin Wall.

Kristallnacht: Over 1,000 synagogues were burned (95 in Vienna alone) and over 7,000 Jewish businesses destroyed or damaged. Martin Gilbert writes that no event in the history of German Jews between 1933 and 1945 was so widely reported as it was happening, and the accounts from the foreign journalists working in Germany sent shock waves around the world. The Times wrote at the time: “No foreign propagandist bent upon blackening Germany before the world could outdo the tale of burnings and beatings, of blackguardly assaults on defenseless and innocent people, which disgraced that country yesterday.”

The pretext for the attacks was the assassination of the German diplomat Ernst vom Rath by Herschel Grynszpan, a German-born Polish Jew living in Paris. Kristallnacht was followed by additional economic and political persecution of Jews, and is viewed by historians as part of Nazi Germany’s broader racial policy, and the beginning of the Final Solution and The Holocaust.

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Muharram in Mumbai

November 9, 2014
A Shi'ite Muslim has his child gashed with a knife during a Muharram procession ahead of Ashoura in Mumbai, November 3, 2014. REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui

A Shi’ite Muslim has his child gashed with a knife during a Muharram procession ahead of Ashoura in Mumbai, November 3, 2014. REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui

What freedom of religion?

What freedom of choice?

Should we blame the little boy for having such a father or 

the religion and its high priests for inducing such behaviour?

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