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New paper – “Warming since 1850 is mainly the result of natural climatic variations”

September 13, 2012

A new paper in Global and Planetary Change byNorwegian researchers has identified persistent cyclic variations in temperature records from Svalbard and Greenland. They find that some of the identified cycles correspond to variations in the Moons’ orbit around Earth and some correspond to solar variations. They find that warming since 1850 is mainly the result of natural climatic variations and conclude that the persistence of cycles makes climate forecasting feasible for limited time ranges.

And if  “warming since 1850 is mainly the result of natural climatic variations” then it just confirms that the theory that anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are responsible for global warming remains in the realm of speculation.

Identifying natural contributions to late Holocene climate change

by Ole Humlum, Jan-Erik Solheim and Kjell Stordahl

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.09.005

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Global temperature dependence on CO2 concentration goes missing

September 12, 2012

That climate changes and will continue to change is obvious. That this is primarily due to solar effects via the oceans also seems obvious to me. It seems the height of arrogance when – like Canute attempting to hold back the tides – climate-politicians attempt to hold back the sun and its effects. The sun cannot be carbon-taxed into submission.

That CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has little impact on climate is the reality that climate-politicians continue to deny. That the effects of man-made carbon dioxide emissions are of even less significance is becoming increasingly obvious.

Over the last 16 years global temperatures have been pretty flat (actually the trend is very slightly downwards). During this same time  the atmospheric mean CO2 concentration has continued its increasing trend of between 1.5 and 2.5 ppm /year.

The data show no causality between CO2 concentration  and global mean temperature. How much or how little man-made emissions of CO2 contribute to the global mean concentration is still open to much question.

Global mean temperatures from woodfortrees.org

Global temperature anomaly hardcrut3vgl (via http://www.woodfortrees.org)

The following plot of mean annual atmospheric CO2 concentrations is from NOAA data 

(ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/trends/co2_annmean_mlo.txt)

NOAA ESRL data

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With 3 weeks to go the Indian monsoon rains have recovered somewhat

September 10, 2012

The Indian monsoon season officially covers the 4 months from June to September. Rainfall after the first 2 months was running some 25% less than “normal” and there were fears of severe effects not only directly on agricultural output but also for the knock-on effects on agriculture-related industry. But with 3 weeks left to go the rains seem to have recovered partially such that the total rainfall is running only 8% less than”normal”.

From IMD

2012 monsoon rainfall till 10th September / image IMD

At the end of July the rainfall map was dominated by “pink” deficient states and with even a couple of “yellow” scanty states. The situation has improved considerably though the late rains will not be as beneficial as they could have been a few weeks ago. Nevertheless, 2012 will probably be considered – statistically – a pretty average year and this monsoon will not be a “bad” one. Since the difference between a “good” monsoon (about +10 -15%) and a bad one (-15%)  is thought to about 2% for the annual GDP, this partial recovery will come as a relief to many.

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The year when “hot air avoided Sweden with uncanny precision.”

September 5, 2012

One summer (or one winter) does not a climate make – but ……..

The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) has posted its summary of the 2102 summer.

In summary, one can say that the summer of 2012 was the year when “hot air avoided Sweden with uncanny precision.”

The summer of 2012 was not one of the wettest and coldest, but was probably still a disappointment for most vacationers. There was not a single extended period of warmth, sunshine and clear blue skies throughout the summer. It is twelve years since it happened last. Previously, this type of summer occurred more frequently. 1987, 1993, 1998 and 2000 are examples.

Otherwise, there was absolutely no shortage of hot air over the Northern Hemisphere. But it avoided Sweden with uncanny precision.

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Carbon dioxide lags temperature

September 3, 2012

A new paper again confirming that the theory that carbon dioxide leads global temperature is misconceived.

” Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 9.5-10 months behind changes in global air surface temperature. CO2 released from use of fossil fuels have little influence on the observed changes in the amount of atmospheric CO2.” 

The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature

by Ole Humlum, Kjell Stordahl, Jan-Erik Solheim, Global and Planetary Change

Abstract

Using data series on atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperatures we investigate the phase relation (leads/lags) between these for the period January 1980 to December 2011. Ice cores show atmospheric CO2variations to lag behind atmospheric temperature changes on a century to millennium scale, but modern temperature is expected to lag changes in atmospheric CO2, as the atmospheric temperature increase since about 1975 generally is assumed to be caused by the modern increase in CO2. In our analysis we use eight well-known datasets; 1) globally averaged well-mixed marine boundary layer CO2 data, 2) HadCRUT3 surface air temperature data, 3) GISS surface air temperature data, 4) NCDC surface air temperature data, 5) HadSST2 sea surface data, 6) UAH lower troposphere temperature data series, 7) CDIAC data on release of anthropogene CO2, and 8) GWP data on volcanic eruptions. Annual cycles are present in all datasets except 7) and 8), and to remove the influence of these we analyze 12-month averaged data. We find a high degree of co-variation between all data series except 7) and 8), but with changes in CO2 always lagging changes in temperature. The maximum positive correlation between CO2 and temperature is found for CO2 lagging 11–12 months in relation to global sea surface temperature, 9.5-10 months to global surface air temperature, and about 9 months to global lower troposphere temperature. The correlation between changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric CO2 is high, but do not explain all observed changes.

Highlights

► The overall global temperature change sequence of events appears to be from 1) the ocean surface to 2) the land surface to 3) the lower troposphere.

►Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging about 11–12 months behind changes in global sea surface temperature.

► Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 9.5-10 months behind changes in global air surface temperature. Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging about 9 months behind changes in global lower troposphere temperature.

► Changes in ocean temperatures appear to explain a substantial part of the observed changes in atmospheric CO2 since January 1980.

► CO2 released from use of fossil fuels have little influence on the observed changes in the amount of atmospheric CO2, and changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes in human emissions.

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AGW – “a monopoly that clings to one hypothesis”

August 6, 2012

Michael Crichton (2003): “There is no such thing as consensus science. If it’s consensus, it isn’t science. If it’s science, it isn’t consensus. Period.”

Matt Ridley’s 3rd article on confirmation bias in the Wall Street Journal:

I argued last week that the way to combat confirmation bias—the tendency to behave like a defense attorney rather than a judge when assessing a theory in science—is to avoid monopoly. So long as there are competing scientific centers, some will prick the bubbles of theory reinforcement in which other scientists live.

image

image : Wall Street Journal – John S. Dykes

Last month saw two media announcements of preliminary new papers on climate. One, by a team led by physicist Richard Muller of the University of California, Berkeley, concluded “the carbon dioxide curve gives a better match than anything else we’ve tried” for the (modest) 0.8 Celsius-degree rise in global average temperatures over land during the past half-century—less, if ocean is included. He may be right, but such curve-fitting reasoning is an example of confirmation bias. The other, by a team led by the meteorologist Anthony Watts, a skeptical gadfly, confirmed its view that the Muller team’s numbers are too high—because “reported 1979-2008 U.S. temperature trends are spuriously doubled” by bad thermometer siting and unjustified “adjustments.” …

…. The late novelist Michael Crichton, in his prescient 2003 lecture criticizing climate research, said: “To an outsider, the most significant innovation in the global-warming controversy is the overt reliance that is being placed on models…. No longer are models judged by how well they reproduce data from the real world—increasingly, models provide the data. As if they were themselves a reality.” ….

….. Bring on the gadflies.

The late Michael Crichton’s lecture in 2003 is well worth reading again.

Crichton’s lecture is here: Crichton 2003 Caltech Michelin Lecture

On “consensus science” he has this to say:

I want to pause here and talk about this notion of consensus, and the rise of what has been called consensus science. I regard consensus science as an extremely pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks. Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you’re being had.

Let’s be clear: the work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus.

There is no such thing as consensus science. If it’s consensus, it isn’t science. If it’s science, it isn’t consensus. Period.

In addition, let me remind you that the track record of the consensus is nothing to be proud of. Let’s review a few cases. ……

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Reported 1979-2008 U.S. temperature trends are spuriously doubled by NOAA

July 29, 2012

1. Anthony Watts has a new publication

This pre-publication draft paper, titled An area and distance weighted analysis of the impacts of station exposure on the U.S. Historical Climatology Network temperatures and temperature trends, is co-authored by Anthony Watts of California, Evan Jones of New York, Stephen McIntyre of Toronto, Canada, and Dr. John R. Christy from the Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Alabama, Huntsville.

A reanalysis of U.S. surface station temperatures has been performed using the recently WMO-approved Siting Classification System devised by METEO-France’s Michel Leroy. The new siting classification more accurately characterizes the quality of the location in terms of monitoring long-term spatially representative surface temperature trends. The new analysis demonstrates that reported 1979-2008 U.S. temperature trends are spuriously doubled, with 92% of that over-estimation resulting from erroneous NOAA adjustments of well-sited stations upward. The paper is the first to use the updated siting system which addresses USHCN siting issues and data adjustments.

The new improved assessment, for the years 1979 to 2008, yields a trend of +0.155C per decade from the high quality sites, a +0.248 C per decade trend for poorly sited locations, and a trend of +0.309 C per decade after NOAA adjusts the data. ……

2. Massive Human CO2 Emissions Still Unable To Reverse Nature’s Global Cooling Over Last 15 Years

Hadcrut global cooling co2 ipcc climate models global warming june 2012

CO2 and temperature

 

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Further confirmation that carbon dioxide lags temperature by hundreds of years

July 24, 2012

I find the blithe assumption – based on supposition and without any evidence – that carbon dioxide has any significant impact on climate, perhaps the most irritating part of the politically correct global warming dogma. I have no objection to it being a hypothesis but it is not rational to take such an hypothesis as fact just  “because there is no other explanation”. In fact, solar effects provide most of the “missing” explanation but since solar effects cannot be put down to man and clearly this is politically incorrect!!

Historical data of ice ages shows that carbon dioxide changes lag temperature changes and previously it seemed that the lag might be as long as 700 – 1000 years. Researchers from the University of Copenhagen have published a new paper. The paper suggests that the lag was more likely a few hundred years and less than 400 years. But lag it was. I draw two main conclusions:

  1. That carbon dioxide variations in the past were primarily caused by temperature changes and not the other way around, and
  2. That the degassing of the oceans following a temperature rise caused an increase in carbon dioxide  in just a few hundred years.

Of course this does not prove that increasing carbon dioxide emissions cannot influence temperature. But what it does show is that the primary link between temperature and CO2  is that temperature leads CO2 concentration.

Given that

  1. there have been no “temperature runaways” in the past where the subsequent increase of  CO2 concentration has provided a positive feedback to the initial temperature rise and
  2. given that in any system which tends to an equilibrium the effect tends to neutralise the cause,

I find it more plausible that increasing CO2 concentration may well have contributed to neutralising the temperature increase which caused the CO2 emission in the first place.

The greatest climate change the world has seen in the last 100,000 years was the transition from the ice age to the warm interglacial period. New research from the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen indicates that, contrary to previous opinion, the rise in temperature and the rise in the atmospheric CO2 follow each other closely in terms of time. The results have been published in the scientific journal, Climate of the Past. …

It had previously been thought that as the temperature began to rise at the end of the ice age approximately 19,000 years ago, an increase in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere followed with a delay of up to 1,000 years.

“Our analyses of ice cores from the ice sheet in Antarctica shows that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere follows the rise in Antarctic temperatures very closely and is staggered by a few hundred years at most,” explains Sune Olander Rasmussen, Associate Professor and centre coordinator at the Centre for Ice and Climate at the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen.

Tightened constraints on the time-lag between Antarctic temperature and CO2during the last deglaciation by J. B. Pedro, S. O. Rasmussen, and T. D. van Ommen Clim. Past, 8, 1213-1221, 2012

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Breaking weather records from a century ago only shows that it was hotter before CO2 emissions began

July 14, 2012

I am off again on an assignment for a few days and blogging will be light.

It’s summer and where I’m going torrential rain or blistering sunshine with temperatures over 45 °C  are quite normal for this time of year. If it is raining the temperature may be down to 25°C. So I’m prepared for a possible variation of some 20 deg C. It’s just weather.

I note the usual summer stories from around the world of heat waves in some places and “coldest” Junes in a 100 years in others. Some farmers are complaining about droughts and others are complaining about floods. Where societies have ignored repairs or have not built up their infrastructure to match the changing concentrations of urban populations – disasters occur. But I also note that when parts of the US declares that they have just had the hottest period for 50 years or 100 years or whatever and that this is “proof” of global warming they conveniently forget that 50 years ago or 100 years ago or whenever, man-made emissions of carbon dioxide were orders of magnitude lower. When weather records from a hundred years ago are broken it only proves that it was hotter/colder/stormier/wetter/drier or whatever long before the modern industrial age and before any significant man man-made carbon dioxide emissions.  Breaking an old record only shows cyclic behaviour – not “runaway” behaviour!

It’s summer and people are on vacation and journalists are looking for stories and the silly season has begun!

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Solar influence confirmed by new high-res reconstruction of 2000 years of climate in northern Europe

July 10, 2012

It’s the sun of course and it cannot be ignored – even by the IPCC.

A new paper in Nature Climate Change shows that

“Solar insolation changes, resulting from long-term oscillations of orbital configurations, are an important driver of Holocene climate.

The forcing is substantial over the past 2,000 years, up to four times as large as the 1.6 W m−2 net anthropogenic forcing since 1750, but the trend varies considerably over time, space and with season. Using numerous high-latitude proxy records, slow orbital changes have recently been shown to gradually force boreal summer temperature cooling over the common era. Here, we present new evidence based on maximum latewood density data from northern Scandinavia, indicating that this cooling trend was stronger (−0.31 °C per 1,000 years, ±0.03 °C) than previously reported, and demonstrate that this signature is missing in published tree-ring proxy records. The long-term trend now revealed in maximum latewood density data is in line with coupled general circulation models indicating albedo-driven feedback mechanisms and substantial summer cooling over the past two millennia in northern boreal and Arctic latitudes. These findings, together with the missing orbital signature in published dendrochronological records, suggest that large-scale near-surface air-temperature reconstructions relying on tree-ring data may underestimate pre-instrumental temperatures including warmth during Medieval and Roman times.

Orbital forcing of tree-ring data by Jan Esper, David C. Frank, Mauri Timonen, Eduardo Zorita, Rob J. S. Wilson, Jürg Luterbacher, Steffen Holzkämper, Nils Fischer, Sebastian Wagner, Daniel Nievergelt, Anne Verstege & Ulf Büntgen Nature Climate Change (2012) doi:10.1038/nclimate1589 

Received 27 March 2012  Accepted 15 May 2012  Published online 08 July 2012

image Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU)

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