Archive for the ‘Natural Disasters’ Category

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Japan back to growth with a bang with GDP up 1.5% in 3 months

November 14, 2011

I have faith in Japanese resilience and will still stick my neck out and stay with my forecast that the Japanese economy  will become a global “driver” through 2012 and 2013.

Japanese Gross Domestic Product grew by 1.5 % over the 3rd quarter (July – September) representing an annualized growth rate of 6 percent. This is the fastest rate of growth for 18 months.  The Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo that at 543 trillion yen ($7 trillion), the economic output was back to levels last seen before the March 11th  Great Tohoku quake and tsunami.

The growth seems to have been led by exports rather than the domestic impetus measures to recover from the earthquake or the subsequent spending on rebuilding infrastructure. These probably need 2 more quarters to kick-in but that  means that this growth is still vulnerable to current global weaknesses.

However the optimistic “glass half full” view would be that Japanese exports have grown mainly to Asia and the earthquake rebound  has yet to come. Moreover this has happened in spite of a very high Yen. Any recovery in Europe and N. America would be a further boost to an economy which is large enough to then act as a global motor.

NY Times: 

The rebound underscores the speed at which Japanese industry has been able to get back on its feet after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, rebuilding factories and re-establishing supply chains severed by the destruction.

Exports jumped 6.2 percent as manufacturers got production back on track. Private consumption, which accounts for almost two-thirds of Japan’s economy, grew 1 percent, helped by a rebound in consumer sentiment and replacement demand in the tsunami zone.

Still, policy makers and economists also worry that the punishingly strong yen of recent months as well as weak growth in major trading partners, like the United States and China, will take a toll on Japanese exports. The crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, meanwhile, has thrown the country’s energy policy into disarray and cast a pall over Japan’s recovery.

Related: Could the disaster in Japan power a wave of sustainable growth? 

 

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One year on, cheap but untested vaccines to be deployed against cholera in Haiti

October 25, 2011

The UN introduced cholera to Haiti and is now embarking on a vaccination program with a vaccine which has been hurriedly approved just in September this year.

Last October the claims that the UN had introduced the disease into Haiti were initially denied but in May this year the United Nations released a long-awaited report indicating that human waste from Nepalese peacekeepers along with dirty drinking water likely triggered the spread of the cholera epidemic that has gripped Haiti since October 2010.

As of last week the cholera outbreak in Haiti has caused 473,649 cases 251,885 hospitalizations and 6,631 deaths. The number of deaths is thought to be an underestimate.

(more…)

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Posted in Medicine, Natural Disasters, UN | 2 Comments »

Scientific negligence goes on trial for manslaughter in Italy

September 20, 2011

“Scientists” today enjoy a general reputation for being unbiased, objective, incorruptible and dauntless seekers after truth. With this reputation they also have little liability for their pronouncements or for the integrity or the quality of their work. This is not sustainable as the politicisation of science is increasingly unavoidable and temptations for scientific misconduct grow. To try and de-politicise science is impractical. More emphasis can be placed on developing ethical standards which should reduce the incidence of misconduct. But I think the key is to ensure that scientists carry some liability for what they do and that they do it honestly. A scientist is no less a professional than a lawyer or an engineer or a physician or an architect. They do have some liability for the quality of what they do. Incompetence, negligence or dishonesty carry penalties for other professions and scientists can not and should not be exempt.

Of course the scientific community is up in arms about the seismologists being tried for manslaughter in Italy, but they do need to be held accountable for their negligence or incompetence – if demonstrated. Wearing a white coat and calling oneself a “scientist” should not provide automatic immunity from accountability and liability.

Scientific American:  By Nicola Nosengo

Six Italian seismologists and one government official will be tried for the manslaughter of those who died in the earthquake that struck the city of L’Aquila on 6 April 2009. The seven were on a committee that had been tasked with assessing the risk associated with recent increases in seismic activity in the area. Following a committee meeting just a week before the quake, some members of the group assured the public that they were in no danger. 

In the aftermath of the quake, which killed 309 people, many citizens said that these reassurances were the reason they did not take precautionary measures, such as leaving their homes. As a consequence, the public prosecutor of L’Aquila pressed manslaughter charges against all the participants in the meeting, on the grounds that they had falsely reassured the public. After several delays, the public prosecutor Fabio Picuti and the defendants’ lawyers appeared this week before Giuseppe Gargarella, the judge for preliminary hearings, who had to decide whether to dismiss the case or proceed with a trial.

During the hearing, the prosecutor called the committee’s risk assessment “superficial and generic”, resulting in “incomplete, imprecise and contradictory public information”. Responding to the thousands of scientists who had signed a letter of support for the defendants, the prosecutor acknowledged that the committee members had no way of predicting the earthquake, but he accused them of translating their scientific uncertainty into an overly optimistic message. More specifically, the accusation focuses on a statement made at a press conference on 31 March 2009 by Bernardo De Bernardinis, who was then deputy technical head of Italy’s Civil Protection Agency and is now president of the Institute for Environmental Protection and Research in Rome. “The scientific community tells me there is no danger,” he said, “because there is an ongoing discharge of energy. The situation looks favorable”. ….

 At the end of the hearing, the judge decided that the trial will begin on 20 September. …

The earthquake was surely not predictable and poor building standards surely contributed to the deaths but whether the scientists exhibited incompetence or negligence is a valid question. And if they did they need to be held accountable even if not perhaps for manslaughter.

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Earthquakes July 5th

July 5, 2011

Following up from the red warning from Weather Action today’s news brings

Earthquake shakes Melbourne 

6.5 magnitude earthquake hits New Zealand’s lower North Island

Powerful 5.4 magnitude earthquake hits Western Japan

Generally the number of earthquakes during the period warned about was at the heightened level apparent for the last few months but nothing extraordinary was apparent.

Quakes today:

2.7  2011/07/05 09:30:20   60.138  -150.048 32.8  KENAI PENINSULA, ALASKA

3.7  2011/07/05 09:16:29  -38.336   145.821 21.0  NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA

 4.7  2011/07/05 06:39:06   38.331   144.294 45.1  OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

 2.6  2011/07/05 03:49:53   38.428  -118.735 5.2  NEVADA

 5.3  2011/07/05 03:36:25  -38.597   175.688 161.3  NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND

 2.6  2011/07/05 03:24:54   59.906  -141.828 18.2  SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA

3.3  2011/07/05 03:22:07   39.928  -111.816 1.3  UTAH

2.7  2011/07/05 02:46:47   38.424  -118.740 2.7  NEVADA

3.3  2011/07/05 02:37:16  -38.404   145.888 0.0  NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA

3.6  2011/07/05 02:30:30   38.423  -118.742 3.5  NEVADA

2.5  2011/07/05 01:53:52   36.267  -120.765 7.8  CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

 4.6  2011/07/05 01:32:14  -38.361   145.817 9.9  NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA


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Posted in Natural Disasters, Natural Phenomena | 1 Comment »

Tepco shares rise sharply on reports of planned break-up and nationalisation

July 4, 2011

Tepco shares rose almost 20% today as reports on Sunday described government plans to break-up the Japanese utility and to nationalise its nuclear plant assets.

Market Watch:

 

Senior members of Japan’s government have been involved in secret plans to break up the operator of the beleaguered Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, according to reports. 

The plan would see the nuclear operations of Tokyo Electric Power Co. JP:9501 +19.82%  come under government control, said Reuters, citing a report Sunday in a local paper.

The plan has been devised by Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku, said Reuters, citing the Mainichi daily. The newspaper said its information was from unnamed sources.

As well as nationalizing the nuclear business, the plan would see Tepco sell its power distribution business, said Reuters. Power-generation operations that use thermal and hydraulic power plants would remain as the company’s business. 

The plan would shred Tepco’s size, according to the reports, leaving it with 1.6 trillion yen ($19.8 billion) in power industry assets compared to its current 7 trillion yen.

The reports state that Sengoku has met several times with Tepco Chairman Tsunehisa Katsumata, and has informed Katsumata about the plans.

Also Sunday, The Wall Street Journal said the company has restarted the use of contaminated water to cool the reactor cores at Fukushima, one week after an initial attempt was suspended because of leaks. Tepco is hoping to achieve a cold shutdown, lowering the fuel rods’ temperature to below 100 degrees Celsius, by January.

Related:

https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2011/03/29/tepco-leadership-in-disarray-as-share-price-drops-to-47-year-low-and-government-considers-nationalisation/

https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2011/03/30/tepco-stocks-are-on-their-way-to-losing-all-value/

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Signs that the Japanese recovery is beginning

July 4, 2011

Having a very strong belief in the resilience of Japan and the Japanese in the face of natural disasters, I have – paradoxically – been anticipating that the Great 2011 earthquake and tsunami will actually lead to a wave of infrastructure spending which can actually lead to a new spurt of economic growth. If political changes are also forthcoming this could be a wave of sustainable growth. 

Now 3 months after the quake and tsunami the first signs are visible that the recovery is beginning. There is a long way yet to go but I remain convinced that over the next 2 or 3 years we will see Japan re-emerging as a significant motor driving the world economy.

Bloomberg:

 

Japan’s industrial production rose at the fastest pace in more than 50 years, led by carmakers as they restored operations at plants after a record earthquake and tsunami on March 11.

Factory output increased 5.7 percent in May from April, the biggest gain since 1953, the Trade Ministry said in Tokyo today. The median estimate of 30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 5.5 percent gain.

Output in the transportation industry advanced 36 percent from the previous month as automakers including Toyota Motor Corp. and Nissan Motor Co. restarted production lines. Manufacturers said they plan to increase output 5.3 percent this month and 0.5 percent in July, according to a survey of companies included in today’s report.

“The report shows that the auto industry is a strong driving force” in boosting production, said Hiroaki Muto, a senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “The post-quake shock is running its course and production is undergoing a V-shaped recovery.”

The output report follows data this week showing that retail sales rose 2.4 percent in May from April, in a sign that consumer demand is rebounding.

Business World:

 

THE AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY foresees a more stable supply situation at the very least following reports that Japanese parts production has picked up following March’s deadly earthquake and tsunami. Timing of a return to full output, however, remains uncertain given power shortages caused by the shutdown of the Fukushima nuclear plant, industry officials said.

Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry last week said industrial production rose by 5.7% month-on-month in May from 1.6% in April, with transport equipment among the sectors leading growth. Inventory was said to have similarly increased by 5.1% in May from previous month on improved production of electronics parts and devices, among others.

 

 

 

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Tokyo Electric close to insolvency

June 10, 2011

NYT: On Thursday, shares in Tokyo Electric again fell to a record low, at one point slumping to 148 yen ($1.85), down 93 percent from prequake levels. Shares finished at 192 yen ($2.40), down 4 percent from the previous day, and the company already had a 1.25 trillion yen loss in the year ending March 31, the largest annual loss for a nonfinancial institution in Japanese history.

Current Stock Chart Performance for TOKYO ELECTRIC POWER CO INC (9501)

http://investing.businessweek.com

The physical damage from the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has been so widespread that even conservative estimates of compensation claims amount to tens of billions of dollars — a burden that could render Japan’s largest utility insolvent….

….

And banks were so certain of this that they agreed, in early April, to lend almost 2 trillion yen ($25 billion) to the struggling utility company. In the eyes of the market, Tokyo Electric was too big to fail.

Now, three months later, the market is not so sure.

…. Meanwhile, the head of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, Atsushi Saito — who was once the president of a state-sponsored organization that assisted ailing companies, — shocked investors when he suggested in an interview last week with local media that Tokyo Electric should go through court-led restructuring, similar to the path Japan Airlines had taken since declaring bankruptcy last year.

Tokyo Electric is Japan’s biggest corporate bond issuer, representing about 8 percent, or about 5 trillion yen, of the country’s 70 trillion yen corporate bond market. And because many of Japan’s largest banks hold shares in Tokyo Electric, they have already taken a direct hit from the utility’s difficulties.

The Tokyo Metropolitan Government owns about 3 percent of Tokyo Electric’s shares, and the city’s finances have been thrown into disarray as share prices plunge and dividends are canceled.

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Massive 7.4 quake again in Japan – as predicted on 5th April

April 7, 2011

On 5th April there was a large coronal mass ejection on the sun:

article image

The sun on April 5th 2011

In consequence:
– solar wind speed went up
– a 5MeV proton burst and
– proton flux went up.

Piers Corbyn then predicted that heightened earthquake activity was likely between the 6th and 9th of April.

article image

Prediction on 5th April

And lo and behold, a 7.4 magnitude quake has struck off the north east coast of Japan again – strong enough for the Fukushima nuclear plant to be evacuated and for a tsunami warning to be issued. Fortunately no significant damage has been reported and the tsunami warning has now been withdrawn.

Earlier in the day there was  a 6.5 magnitude quake near Vera Cruz Mexico. There are some reports also of increased seismic activity in the western US.

One more piece of evidence linking heightened earthquake and volcanic activity on earth with what happens on the sun.

Related:

Solar effects will give increased volcanic and earthquake activity in the next 2 years

Two 7.0 quakes hit Burma — as predicted?


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Fukushima radioactive water leakage now stopped

April 5, 2011

Update! BBC:

A leak of highly radioactive water into the Pacific Ocean from Japan’s crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant has been stopped, its operator reports. Tepco said it had injected chemical agents to solidify soil near a cracked pit, from where the contaminated water had been seeping out.

TEPCO reports the first signs that at least one of the leaks has been found and that preventive measures seem to be having some effect according to NHK:

TEPCO has injected a hardening agent beneath a leaking concrete pit in a bid to stem the flow of highly radioactive water into the sea. The firm says the leakage seems to be decreasing, following the infusion of the hardening agent.

The utility showed reporters a photo of the leak on Tuesday evening, saying it indicates such a decrease. TEPCO said it will infuse another 1,500 liters of liquid glass. Tokyo Electric Power Company started infusing liquid glass into gravel below the pit near the Number 2 reactor at 3 PM on Tuesday.

Leakage - before and after: screen shot from NHK

TEPCO spotted a crack in the pit 3 days ago while trying to find the source of the leakage of contaminated water into the Pacific Ocean. Since then, the utility has tried in vein to seal the pit with concrete, or to plug piping leading into it with a polymer mixture. A test using a dye agent showed the possibility that the radioactive water is leaking from a cracked pipe, and then seeping through gravel into the concrete pit.

TEPCO is planning to board up the breached sections of an offshore dike to prevent the tainted water from spreading further into the sea. It is also considering building underwater barriers at 3 locations, including one near a water intake for the Number 2 reactor

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Fukushima Dai-ichi – Tracing the leaks

April 4, 2011

Fukushima Dai-ichi reactors #1 to 4 will never operate again. Politically, it is difficult to see how reactors #5 and 6 could be brought back into operation though technically it may well be feasible. But right now the focus is on finding where exactly the radiation leaks are coming from. The process of tracing all leaks and gradually bringing them all under control is likely to take months rather than weeks.

Some of the nuclear hysteria is dying down and some media attention is returning to the people affected by the quake and the tsunami. And nobody has received anything like a fatal dose of radiation from Fukushima.

And mentioning Fukushima in the same breath as Hiroshima and Nagasaki (which our instant media pundits are inclined to do) is obscene.

TEPCO seems to be getting its house in order and perhaps the efforts of Chairman Tsunehisa Katsumata are having some effect.

Update from NHK:

TEPCO, is continuing its efforts to identify the exact route of the highly radioactive water flowing into the Pacific from its damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power complex.

TEPCO poured a white liquid into a tunnel leading to a concrete pit where the contaminated water is leaking through a crack. This operation was undertaken to determine the exact route the water is taking to the ocean from the pit, located near the plant’s Number 2 reactor.

Monday’s work follows a failed attempt on Sunday to stop the flow of contaminated water by injecting a polymer absorbent into a duct connecting the tunnel with the pit. TEPCO says it will inject the chemical again to block the duct as soon as it has identified the leakage route.

The utility company has also been working on removing radioactive water from the basements of the turbine buildings for two of the plant’s reactors.

The radioactive water in the condensers for the two reactors is being transferred to storage tanks. As soon as the condensers are emptied, the water from the reactor will be drained into them to allow work to begin to restore the reactors’ cooling systems.

Work to remove the water was begun on Sunday at reactors Number 1 and 2. A similar operation will start at the Number 3 reactor on Monday.

As a temporary measure, the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency is considering setting up silt barriers near a water intake for the Number 2 reactor.

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