Archive for the ‘Science’ Category

Global Warming: “The science is terrible but—perhaps the psychology is good.”

July 10, 2010

Anthony Watts has a post revisiting the late Michael Crichton‘s 2003 lecture at Caltech which I had not seen before.

A lucid and eloquent exposition which I reproduce below. Reading it now in 2010 it is still fresh, applicable and apposite. It should be required reading for any young scientist of the dangers of religion or politics masquerading as science.

“Aliens Cause Global Warming”

A lecture by Michael Crichton
Caltech Michelin Lecture
January 17, 2003

My topic today sounds humorous but unfortunately I am serious. I am going to argue that extraterrestrials lie behind global warming. Or to speak more precisely, I will argue that a belief in extraterrestrials has paved the way, in a progression of steps, to a belief in global warming.

Charting this progression of belief will be my task today.

Let me say at once that I have no desire to discourage anyone from believing in either extraterrestrials or global warming. That would be quite impossible to do. Rather, I want to discuss the history of several widely-publicized beliefs and to point to what I consider an emerging crisis in the whole enterprise of science-namely the increasingly uneasy relationship between hard science and public policy.

I have a special interest in this because of my own upbringing. I was born in the midst of World War II, and passed my formative years at the height of the Cold War. In school drills, I dutifully crawled under my desk in preparation for a nuclear attack.

It was a time of widespread fear and uncertainty, but even as a child I believed that science represented the best and greatest hope for mankind. Even to a child, the contrast was clear between the world of politics-a world of hate and danger, of irrational beliefs and fears, of mass manipulation and disgraceful blots on human history. In contrast, science held different values-international in scope, forging friendships and working relationships across national boundaries and political systems, encouraging a dispassionate habit of thought, and ultimately leading to fresh knowledge and technology that would benefit all mankind. The world might not be avery good place, but science would make it better. And it did. In my lifetime, science has largely fulfilled its promise. Science has been the great intellectual adventure of our age, and a great hope for our troubled and restless world.

But I did not expect science merely to extend lifespan, feed the hungry, cure disease, and shrink the world with jets and cell phones. I also expected science to banish the evils of human thought—prejudice and superstition, irrational beliefs and false fears. I expected science to be, in Carl Sagan’s memorable phrase, “a candle in a demon haunted world.” And here, I am not so pleased with the impact of science. Rather than serving as a cleansing force, science has in some instances been seduced by the more ancient lures of politics and publicity. Some of the demons that haunt our world in recent years are invented by scientists. The world has not benefited from permitting these demons to escape free.

But let’s look at how it came to pass.

(more…)

Silly Season

July 9, 2010

It’s summer even here in Sweden and the silly stories are coming thick and fast:

  1. Speculation and fantasy become real when coated with science. Carbon emissions threaten fish populations
  2. Inquiries set up by an establishment do tend to support the establishment that feeds them. The Pearce Inquiry into the Climategate scandal found evidence that emails had been deleted to avoid revealing them but concluded that the science was sound!
  3. There is a movement to convert Paul the Octopus to calamari since all his predictions are correct and he could remove all the suspense before Sunday’s World Cup final. Perhaps his keepers should shift Paul’s predictions to something less dangerous – Global warming or the stock market come to mind.
  4. The Met Office has signed a new 5 year deal with the BBC although they might still have to correct their forecasts for a hot summer to account for floods. It is however understood to involve a “significant” reduction in cost, according to BBC sources.
  5. Rajendra Pachauri, head of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has defended his science body’s work, saying any errors in its reports were minor.
  6. Increase of Antarctic sea ice taken to be proof of the effect of greenhouse gases.

No comment needed.

Eureka!! Turning Off the Air Conditioning Helps Save Fuel

June 29, 2010

The wonders of what now passes as SCIENCE (no doubt peer-reviewed).

Science Daily reports on major insights resulting from a study by “Empa – a Research Institute of the ETH Domain” on behalf of the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN).

This ground-breaking study shows that Automobile air conditioning systems do not run “free of charge.” The article reminds us that Car air conditioning systems require energy to compress the cooling agent, and the greater the degree of cooling required the more energy (i.e. fuel) they use.

This is good strong stuff. I need more coffee.

The article continues. The study, the results of which have just been published in the scientific journal “Environmental Science and Technology,” shows that the fuel consumption of the test vehicles with air conditioning systems in operation increases with rising ambient air temperature and humidity, reaching a value of some 18 per cent on a typical Swiss summer day with an air temperature of 27 degrees and relative humidity of 60 per cent.

Wow!

This highly significant peer-reviewed, CO2 related (what else) paper is referenced as:

Martin F. Weilenmann, Robert Alvarez, Mario Keller. Fuel Consumption and CO2/Pollutant Emissions of Mobile Air Conditioning at Fleet Level – New Data and Model ComparisonEnvironmental Science & Technology, 2010: 100608141025002 DOI:

What is not reported is how much this nonsense cost. But since it has CO2 in the title it must be worth every penny.

High probability of La Nina: Good news for the Indian monsoon

June 26, 2010

Good news for the Indian monsoon

The Indian Meteorological Department has increased their rainfall forecast from being 98% of normal to being 102% of normal because of the La Nina conditions developing from the cooling of  the Central Pacific. The monsoon is expected to be “on time” and Northern India will get some relief from the sweltering temperatures they have been suffering.

Development of La Nina will also lead to global temperatures continuing to show the decline which has been apparent for the last decade.

The monsoon is formally defined to last for the 4 months of June to September every year and the onset and progress of the northern front of the monsoon is closely watched and can have a major impact. Even though the Indian economy is not as vulnerable to bad monsoons as it used to be, the importance of the monsoon to agriculture (and therefore also to related industries such as fertilisers, pesticides,pumps and even tractors) means that the difference between a “good” monsoon and a “bad” monsoon can be as much as 2% of annual GDP.

‘‘The latest forecasts from a majority of the dynamical and statistical models indicate continued and rapid cooling of the equatorial Pacific to below La Nina threshholds. There is a very high probablity (about 60%) for the La Nina conditions to develop during the monsoon season, which favours stronger than normal monsoon,’’ said IMD Director General Ajit Tyagi.

(photo credit: worldslatestnews.com/…/)

La Nina is also expected to bring more rain to Australia.

While La Nina will be welcomed in India and may disrupt the Ashes Tests in Australia it is not good news for the soya bean crops in Brazil.

Lunar eclipse and Moon Illusion

June 25, 2010

A partial Lunar Eclipse will take place on June 26th. Observers in Canada, the US and East Asia will be able to see the eclipse when the moon is near the horizon when the Moon illusion is also apparent.

Map of areas of the planet from which the eclipse will be visible

The moon illusion refers to the moon seeming larger when it is near the horizon than when it is high in the sky. Some people judge it to be as much as twice as large, but the average estimate is 50% to 75% larger. But this an optical illusion.

A picture “explaining” the illusion and a few of the wonderful moon images at mgstock9.co.cc/moon-illusion

Moon IllusionMoon Illusion

Moon Illusion

Moon Illusion

Moon Illusion

Periodic table gets bigger: Element 114 Ununquadium

June 25, 2010

Element 114 has been made and confirmed in the laboratory but elements 113, 115, 116, 117 and 118 are predicted but still to be made.

Temporary names assigned to elements 113 to 118 are: Ununtrium, Ununquadium, Ununpentium, Ununhexium, Ununseptiumand Ununoctium.

New Scientist: Element 114 on the brink of recognition

The periodic table is set to get bigger, now that three labs have independently made atoms of element 114. There’s still one big uncertainty though – should it be classified as a metal or as a noble gas?

In February 2010, an element with 112 protons in its atomic nucleus was recognised and named Copernicium by the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC). A similar honour should shortly be on the way for element 114. Ununquadium is the temporary name with the temporary symbol Uuq and atomic number114.

In 1999, researchers at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research in Dubna, Russia, claimed to have made atoms of element 114, but no confirmation was available. Now teams at two other laboratories say they have produced it.

One team was led by Heino Nitsche and Ken Gregorich at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California. The other was led by Christoph Düllmann at the Centre for Heavy Ion Research (GSI) in Darmstadt, Germany.

Element 114’s likely chemical properties remain in doubt, however. One prediction suggests it is a noble gas, while another indicates it has properties similar to lead.

Home made Fusion reactors at room temperature!!

June 23, 2010

Whatever next??

Cold fusion was a bust so it now moves to room temperature.

I note that investors are being sought but I think I’ll pass.

But Good Luck to Mr. Suppes anyway.

Building a homemade nuclear reactor in NYC

Mr Suppes, 32, is part of a growing community of “fusioneers” – amateur science junkies who are building homemade fusion reactors, for fun and with an eye to being part of the solution to that problem.

He is the 38th independent amateur physicist in the world to achieve nuclear fusion from a homemade reactor, according to community site Fusor.net. Others on the list include a 15-year-old from Michigan and a doctoral student in Ohio.

The fusion reactor in the Brooklyn warehouse

Mr Suppes has spent the last two years perfecting his reactor

“I was inspired because I believed I was looking at a technology that could actually work to solve our energy problems, and I believed it was something that I could at least begin to build,” Mr Suppes told the BBC.

McCarthyism returns to the NAS

June 22, 2010

It seems that the high priests of global warming now believe that science is determined by who is more “authoritative”.

We have had “consensus science” and “settled science” and now we have “authoritative science”.

Perhaps we should just have a poll.

Climate change sceptic scientists ‘less prominent and authoritative’

The research indicates that scientists who blame human activity for global warming have published more relevant and influential papers than those who question man’s impact.

But the study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, has been dismissed as misleading by critics.

Opponents said that the paper divided scientists into artificial groups and did not consider a balanced spectrum of scientists.

They also pointed out that climate sceptics often struggled to get their papers accepted by journals, as they must first be reviewed and approved by climate change “believers”.

Judith Curry, a climate expert at the Georgia Institute of Technology – who was not part of the analysis – called the study “completely unconvincing” while John Christy of University of Alabama claimed he and other climate sceptics included in the survey were simply “being blacklisted” by colleagues.


Developing language of Global Warming

June 21, 2010

alarmist –  a paranoid Warmist

AGW –  a religion propogating the homo-centric view of the universe and denying any influence of the sun

climate scientist  –  one who tricks successfully; a failed  statistician

climategate –  release on the internet of the inner workings of the hockeystick team

denialist  –  a heretical sceptic

Gore   –  a figurehead for AGW

hockeystick   – a Warmist religious symbol; a graph depicting the uncontrolled increase of any paramater

hockeystick team  – a small group of fanatical Warmists who created the hockeystick symbol by a trick

IPCC   – The High Church of AGW; primarily an advocacy group for the generation of funds for Warmist projects

Jones  – A Warmist priest and member of the UK Chapter of the hockeystick team

Mann  –  A Warmist priest and inventor of the trick

mann  –  n. a successful practitioner of a trick (not to be confused with a human person)

(mann.ism  n. a trick; mann.ick  adj. manic)

Pachauri  –  High Priest of the IPCC, a railway engineer who underwent a religious conversion to Warmism

peer-review – process for preventing publication by heretics  comparable to excommunication

sceptic – a scientist; a heretic

trick  –   n. data manipulation by exclusion; v. to selectively exclude data to achieve a desired result

settled science – as defined by the High Church

voodoo science – any  scientific endeavour following the scientific method but not conforming to to Warmism dogma

Warmist    –  one who adheres to the religion of  man-made Global Warming

Circular Arguments and Speculation masquerading as Science

June 18, 2010

It is still fashionable – and probably profitable – to connect whatever you are working with to Global Warming.

Artist's impression of mammoths in North America

“The inception of a strong carbon dioxide–greenhouse gas feedback and amplification of orbital forcing at ~2.7 million years ago connected the fate of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets with global ocean temperatures since that time.” So says Timothy Herbert of Brown University in a new paper in Science.

His speculations are less than convincing but no doubt he brings in CO2 forcing either to get funding or to facilitate publication.

Completely circular arguments !!

1. Start by assuming that CO2 induced forcing mechanisms cause global temperature change.

2. Analyse the composition of mud cores from 4 regions in the tropics laid down millions of years ago.

3. Find a temperature “fingerprint” ({delta}18O) in the tropical samples showing an increase of temperature of 1° to 3°C some 2.7 Million years ago. Assume that this is unique and exclusive to temperature.

4.Since the “patterns are similar”  the common mechanism must be via the atmosphere.

5. Voila !! This proves that a forcing mechanism induced by CO2 must have been the common cause of the temperature pattern !!!!!

A so-called science reporter  – a Victoria Gill – at the BBC then proclaims “Ancient climate change ‘link’ to CO2”.