Bibi Netanyahu loses his security blanket

July 14, 2015

I particularly like this from B Michael in a Haaretz opinion column, even if his sarcasm is a little over the top. But with Bibi nothing registers if it does not go over the top.

My heart goes out to Benjamin Netanyahu. With one cold, cruel stroke of the pen, the rulers of the world have taken away his most beloved toy – the apple of his eye and the joy of his heart, the rock of his existence and the source of his strength, and above all, the rock of his refuge and safe haven. Or in short, the Iranian bomb. ……… From now on, Netanyahu is like a baby that has lost its security blanket, or like one whose favorite teddy bear was thrown into the garbage – the one that warmed his heart during the long nights and infused him with calm and serenity during times of trouble and election campaigns.

But Bibi has an easy solution says Michael. He could just take one of Israel’s greater than 200 nuclear warheads and smuggle it into Iran and he can then rest easy that he can get back to crying “Wolf” whenever he has nothing else to say.

But our hope has not yet been lost. If salvation doesn’t come from without, we will bring it from within, from ourselves. ….. As everyone already knows, the State of Israel – of course only according to strange foreign sources – has a respectable arsenal of atomic bombs that long since crossed the 200 mark. More than enough to destroy half the world. 

And here, in these surplus bombs, lies the solution to Netanyahu’s distress. All he has to do is take one of those 200 bombs of ours (according to foreign sources), wrap it up nicely in gift wrapping and give it secretly, as an anonymous donation, to the Islamic Republic of Iran. …… To anyone who fears the move might be discovered and embarrass us, don’t worry; nobody will notice the loss of one bomb out of 200. And even if a curious journalist does discover that one is missing, it’s not so terrible. As is the norm in such cases, Israel will grab the lowly guard on duty and cast him into purgatory the way one usually does with scapegoats, and that will settle the matter.

And thus, everyone will once again be happy.

But to be serious for a moment, bringing Iran back into the fold and creating a more balanced situation could be the best thing to happen in the Middle East for a long time. It is actually the 3-pronged balance between Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran which gives hope. A military, political, financial and even a religious balance. Ultimately the Middle East has to find its own solutions for what constitutes “democracy” and of living together, without solutions being imported and imposed from Washington.

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Iran deal is done, Bibi unhappy, Greek deal done, Greeks unhappy.

July 14, 2015

Reuters and other anonymous sources are reporting that an Iran deal has been done.

Greece yesterday, Iran today, what’s for tomorrow?

Bibi is neither pleased nor amused. A “pre-emptive” strike by Israel on Iran now becomes that much more difficult. Saudi Arabia will not be too pleased either. If sanctions are  lifted and also on weapons sales by Iran then we can see the pro-Iranian factions across the Middle East getting a boost. Which will probably constrain the advance of ISIS somewhat (and whatever the Saudis might say it is private Saudi money funding the barbarians). The pro-Iranian factions in Syria and Iraq will not only get a boost, they may also be more successful on the ground than the US-led coalition.

However Saudi Arabia will not be too unhappy about the additional downward pressure on oil prices. It will be sometime before Iran can ramp up production and during this time, low-cost Saudi oil will win further market share. Though Saudi Arabia failed to wipe out shale oil from the US, it is still increasing production and contributing further to the current oil glut. Saudi seems to be pursuing a revised strategy of keeping oil prices relatively low for 2 years or more in a war of attrition against the higher-cost oil producers. Market share is perceived as their prime weapon to try and get rid of the higher-cost producers. But I think they have miscalculated even here. A discontinued shale oil well can be restarted with very little investment and at very short notice. Production costs of shale oil have decreased sharply. Shale oil developers will just ramp their production up and down depending upon the prevailing oil price. And the larger shale oil wells can make money even with oil prices down at $40/ barrel.

It isn’t quite time for vacation yet in Europe (apart from Sweden which is closed for July). Some kind of framework resolution for the whole package of the 3rd bailout needs to be passed by the Greek parliament by tomorrow. Some resistance is showing today but the resolution will surely pass. Of course that says nothing about the Greek government’s implementation of all they have signed up for. Their track record of implementing what has been solemnly promised is not good. And if the reports today that the ECB will not be pumping liquidity willy-nilly into the Greek banks are correct, then the banking system will have to start issuing IOU’s to keep functioning while the negotiations are concluded. That will effectively be an alternative currency and it won’t be long before the IOU’s start trading at a different value to par. A currency by another name than “Euro” is still a Grexit for as long as that currency is used.

But an Iran back in the international fold is undoubtedly a good thing.

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Varoufakis (backed by Krugman) chose the wrong game

July 13, 2015

Yanis Varoufakis is a Marxist economist and an “expert” on game theory. Paul Krugman is about as close to a Marxist economist as one can get in the US. The only thing that “star” economists get right are back casts where they force their theories to apply to things that have already happened. Krugman is a Nobel prize winner – but in economics that is not something to be very proud of. Krugman has been a vociferous supporter of the anti-austerity camp. He has even criticised those who have argued against debt write-offs. Thomas Piketty is another “star”, French, “socialist” economist who has also been supportive of the anti-austerity brigade.

(In my own view this is not a battle of ideologies since austerity and anti-austerity are not ideologies. If anything it is a battle between profligate public expenditure on the one hand and prudence and good housekeeping on the other.)

In any event, tonight Greece is contemplating the stringent austerity measures they must sign up to by Wednesday along with the loss of fiscal independence required to be able to just enter negotiations on a 3rd bailout of some €85 billion. Debt restructuring is not included in the package though some rescheduling of debt service will be discussed. It is a package is much more stringent than the Greeks rejected in their much-vaunted and self-indulgent referendum. (What referendum if posing the question “Do you want more taxes?”, would not answer “No”. I was surprised that as many as 39% answered “Yes”.) If the negotiations had been completed 3 months ago, Greece would have been able to conclude a much less painful package.

image – http://www.keepcalm-o-matic.co.uk

But it all makes sense if seen as a high stakes “game” that Varoufakis convinced Tsipras and his Syriza colleagues to play. With his game theory credentials and the support of empty “heavyweights” such as Krugman and Piketty, Varoufakis probably thought that he could outmaneuver Schauble especially as he was initiating the game. Perhaps he even felt he was defining the game. A threat to leave the Euro was the nuclear weapon in his arsenal. Seen as such a game, the calling of the referendum was probably planned as the decisive, pre-ultimate move. Even his resignation immediately after the referendum was probably a premeditated move for the negotiation they expected to have. But these moves backfired. First, against Greek expectations, the banks were asphyxiated. Varoufakis had probably miscalculated in thinking that the ECB under friendly French influence would not shut off the liquidity tap. Schauble’s decisive counter-move came yesterday when, for the first time, a Grexit, in the form of a 5 year time-out, was openly named as the alternative. Once Schauble had hijacked that as the nuclear weapon, the game was over. Tsipras had no weapons left and no alternative to capitulating completely.

The Greek population are not only paying for the profligacy of the past. They are also now paying for a game started by Varoufakis which went horribly wrong.

This game is over but the match is still going on. Tsipras would do well to ignore Varoufakis (and Krugman and Piketty) for the rest of the match. Marxists and economy just don’t mix. Marxism may be able to hide its face in the blend but the economy is poisoned.

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It may be small but Pluto is still a planet

July 13, 2015

It orbits the Sun. It has five moons. It is the tenth most massive object orbiting the Sun. It is not that Pluto is not a planet, but that there are many more planets than the “big ten”. The asteroid belt and the Kuiper belt objects are all also planets. Inventing new definitions and calling them “dwarf planets” or “planetoids” doesn’t change the fundamentals.

The International Astronomical Union (IAU) defines a planet thus:

A planet is a celestial body which:

  1. is in orbit around a Star,
  2. has sufficient mass to assume hydrostatic equilibrium (a nearly round shape), and
  3. has “cleared the neighbourhood” around its orbit.

Calling Pluto a “dwarf planet” rather than a “planet” has nothing to do with its properties or the properties of the Sun. It is not even a matter of language or semantics. It is merely for the convenience of a bunch of lazy astronomers who were afraid of having too many planets to classify.

Ultimately it is just a matter of usage. For me any celestial body orbiting another is and remains a planetary body. And every body which orbits the Sun directly (and not by virtue of orbiting a planetary body first) is a planet. Every asteroid is a planet of the Sun. Jupiters moons remain planets of Jupiter. And that makes Pluto a planet. New planets may well have been found in the Kuiper belt – but Pluto remains a planet for me, in spite of the failings of the IAU.

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Neither in or out, but a temporary Grexit is now on the table

July 12, 2015

As always in the EU or in the Eurozone countries, differences of opinion end up with wishy-washy compromises which only maximise the level of dissatisfaction. The EU has become expert at choosing the least attractive solutions in its quest for divine consensus.

After 5 years of trying to keep Greece from leaving the Euro, Germany has finally put forward the compromise position of a 5 year time-out from the Euro, a temporary Grexit which, in all likelihood, would become permanent if it is adopted. The time-out would be offered to Greece if they do not manage to pass some emergency resolutions through their parliament by Wednesday. But the matter of greatest significance, which highlights the fundamentally flawed nature of the Euro, is that a Grexit – even just a temporary one – is for the first time formally acknowledge by the Eurozone countries as being on the table.

It will be painful in the short term but the best for Greece is to leave the Euro, stay in the EU and build up a strong New Drachma. I hope they do take a time-out, that their debt is then restructured, that they get help to and do get back on to their feet and eventually that they make the time-out a permanent exit. And that then leads to an orderly dismantling of the Euro – or at least a suspension of the Euro – to be revisited again when political union is achieved – if ever.

A currency union has to be the natural consequence of a political union and cannot be used to coerce politically unequal nations into a phoney political union that their populations do not want.

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It has always been the Sun as new model predicts another ice age

July 12, 2015

I can see the evidence that the earth goes through warming and cooling cycles. But I have seen no evidence that man-made carbon dioxide emissions have had any significant impact on global climate in general or on global warming in particular. I am more inclined to the view that our climate is overwhelmingly dominated by the Sun – both directly with insolation variations and indirectly through the clouds and the oceans. Solar activity indicates we are approaching – or have arrived at – a new minimum, the Landscheidt Minimum – which will be similar to the Maunder Minimum. Another Little Ice Age in the next decade or two has always been on the cards.

(On a longer timescale, I believe a large volcanic eruption could be one of the possible triggers which tips the earth from interglacial to glacial conditions and our current interglacial cannot last more than another millennium or so.)

Now another model of the suns activity level also suggests that a Maunder-like Minimum and another Little Ice Age is just around the corner.

PhysOrg:

A new model of the Sun’s solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun’s 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the ‘mini ice age’ that began in 1645. Results will be presented today by Prof Valentina Zharkova at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno.

It is 172 years since a scientist first spotted that the Sun’s activity varies over a cycle lasting around 10 to 12 years. But every cycle is a little different and none of the models of causes to date have fully explained fluctuations. Many solar physicists have put the cause of the solar cycle down to a dynamo caused by convecting fluid deep within the Sun. Now, Zharkova and her colleagues have found that adding a second dynamo, close to the surface, completes the picture with surprising accuracy.

“We found magnetic wave components appearing in pairs, originating in two different layers in the Sun’s interior. They both have a frequency of approximately 11 years, although this frequency is slightly different, and they are offset in time. Over the cycle, the waves fluctuate between the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun. Combining both waves together and comparing to real data for the current solar cycle, we found that our predictions showed an accuracy of 97%,” said Zharkova.

Zharkova and her colleagues derived their model using a technique called ‘principal component analysis’ of the magnetic field observations from the Wilcox Solar Observatory in California. They examined three solar cycles-worth of magnetic field activity, covering the period from 1976-2008. In addition, they compared their predictions to average sunspot numbers, another strong marker of solar activity. All the predictions and observations were closely matched.

Looking ahead to the next solar cycles, the model predicts that the pair of waves become increasingly offset during Cycle 25, which peaks in 2022. During Cycle 26, which covers the decade from 2030-2040, the two waves will become exactly out of synch and this will cause a significant reduction in solar activity. 

“In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other – peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun. Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other. We predict that this will lead to the properties of a ‘Maunder minimum’,” said Zharkova. “Effectively, when the waves are approximately in phase, they can show strong interaction, or resonance, and we have strong solar activity. When they are out of phase, we have solar minimums. When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago.”

It really is time to acknowledge the Landscheidt Minimum:

Landscheidt also predicted that after the next solar minimum in 2030 the following minimum would occur in 2200.

It is perhaps time to officially name this minimum that is coming as the “Landscheidt Minimum”.

 

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Posted in Alarmism, Climate, Solar science | 1 Comment »

Age is beauty at Wimbledon on Ladies Day

July 12, 2015

It was Ladies Day at Wimbledon and much to revel in. Not least that the winners were now mature, young ladies even though they had all been precocious teenagers when they first hit the top. Serena Williams won her 21st Grand Slam (Wow!) and her 4th in a row. Martina Hingis teamed up with Sania Mirza to win the doubles in an exciting turnaround after being one set and 5-2 down.

Beauty is relative but there is little doubt that I rejoice far more in “oldest” winners as the years go by.

Serena Williams, 34 this year

Serena 2015 (AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin via Yahoo)

Serena 2015 (AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin via Yahoo)

Martina Hingis, 35 this year and Sania Mirza, 29 this year

Hingis Mirza - 2015 - photo Facundo Arrizabalaga-EPA

Hingis Mirza – 2015 – photo Facundo Arrizabalaga-EPA

 

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Lack of ethics institutionalised at American Psychological Association

July 11, 2015

That members of the American Psychological Association actively participated in and helped to design the torture programme during the Bush era has been known for some time. But for over 10 years the APA has shielded its members and covered up their involvement. In fact they have had an Ethics Officer whose primary job has been to conceal the lack of ethics. The New York Times has details about a new investigation report which focuses on the failings of the members of the American Psychological Association.

NYT Editorial:

The first detailed accounts of the brutal interrogation program the Central Intelligence Agency established after the Sept. 11 attacks noted that psychologists and other medical professionals played key roles in abetting the torture of terrorism suspects. However, much about their role and their degree of responsibility in one of the most macabre and shameful chapters of American history has remained shrouded in secrecy.

A new report by a former federal prosecutor, first disclosed by James Risen in The Times, contains astonishing, disturbing details. It found that top members of the American Psychological Association, the largest professional organization of psychologists, colluded with officials at the Pentagon and the C.I.A. to keep the group’s ethics policies in line with tactics that interrogators working for the agency and the military were employing. …….. 

On Friday, Physicians for Human Rights justifiably called on the Department of Justice to begin a criminal investigation into the psychologists association’s role in the Bush administration’s torture program.

The Obama administration has so far refused to prosecute the torturers. As more evidence about this program comes to light, that position becomes increasingly indefensible.

There are no “good guys” if the behaviour of the “good guys” is no different to that of the “bad guys”. And the degree of “badness” is worse, I think, when the bad behaviour is institutionalised and not just that of rogue individuals.

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865,000 evacuated as Typhoon Chan-hom heads for landfall today

July 11, 2015

Close to a million people have been evacuated and almost 30,000 fishing boats have been recalled to port as Typhoon Chan-hom approaches Sheijiang on the East China coast.

CRI: More than 865,000 people in the eastern Chinese province of Zhejiang have been evacuated as super Typhoon Chan-Hom, the second typhoon to hit China in two days, approaches.

A total of 28,764 ships had been recalled to port as of 10 p.m., Friday, and several cities were already reporting heavy rain and strong gales, the provincial flood, typhoon and drought headquarters said.

The National Meteorological Center (NMC) issued a red alert, the highest level, on Friday morning for the super typhoon.

At 0900 local time on Saturday, the typhoon was around 115 kilometres southeast of Zhejiang province over the East China Sea and forecast to make landfall in Zhejiang on Saturday in the afternoon. It could be the most powerful typhoon to hit the area since 1949.

Image from Pacific Disaster Center:

Typhoon Chan-hom July 10th 2015

Typhoon Chan-hom July 10th 2015

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O learned judge! O idiot judge!

July 10, 2015

Oakland County in Michigan is stuck with her for a long time yet. She probably has no children – one hopes. But Oakland County residents cannot complain now. They elected her.

Lisa Ortlieb Gorcyca is a judge for the 6th Circuit Court in Oakland County, Michigan. She was elected to the court on November 4, 2008, for a six-year term ending on January 1, 2015. On November 4, 2014, Gorcyca was re-elected unopposed for another six-year term commencing on January 1, 2015, and expiring on December 31, 2020.

Oakland Press:

An Oakland County circuit judge who sent three children to a juvenile detention facility for refusing to speak to their father compared the kids to cult leader Charles Manson.

Oakland Circuit Judge Lisa Gorcyca declared the children of Maya Tsimhoni in contempt of court last month and ordered them held at Oakland County Children’s Village until they attempt to have a relationship with their father or they turn 18.

The three — ages 9, 10, and 14 — have been incarcerated for more than two weeks.

And as a reader writes in to the Oakland Press:

There have been many outrageous decisions made by judges over the years, but Judge Lisa Gorcyca’s recent order to send three children to spend detention until they turn 18 is one of the most appalling orders ever! Comparing these children to Charles Manson shows this judge is nothing short of insane.

She needs to resign immediately or be removed. Murderers and robbers get more lenient sentences, yet innocent children are sent away? This action by Judge Lisa Gorcyca will cause detrimental affects on these children. But then, what does she care? She is on a power trip evidently because after all, she is the all-wise judge! Pathetic!

Barry Baumann,

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