Di Caprio puts on an act for climate change

September 26, 2014

I am always more than a little suspicious when a “celebrity” starts supporting some “benevolent” cause. My suspicions are directed primarily at the cause – not so so much at the celebrity. The celebrities are celebrities because they want to be. Their narcissistic urges are usually very well developed. But any “cause” which has to enlist the use of celebrities – with no particular qualifications other than being well known – to prop up its justification for existing is demeaned and damaged by the exercise. The celebrities of course get the extra exposure they so yearn for.

Whether it is Victoria Beckham on Millenium goals or George Clooney on Poverty or Arundhati Roy on dams or now Leonard Di Caprio on Climate, I find the causes are damaged while the celebrities satisfy their narcissistic urges. Arnold Alois Schwarzenegger must be the kiss of death for the causes he supports. In fact studies have shown that the good causes of the famous ‘benefit themselves more than the charities. 

The chief beneficiaries of star-studded attempts to raise the profile of a good cause are the celebrity themselves, according to sociologists, who say the appearance of altruism makes them more popular with the public.

Two pieces of research by UK academics argue that “the ability of celebrity and advocacy to reach people is limited” and that celebrities are “generally ineffective” at encouraging people to care about foreign causes.

But the publicity surrounding Di Caprio this week has been particularly gratuitous and unconvincing. He attended President Obama’s speech about Climate at the UN on Tuesday:

RCP: ……… But it was President Obama who provided the most visible sign that the talks were heading in the wrong direction. Arriving late, the president looked as if he’d rather be anywhere else. The president’s tone in speaking to his fellow leaders and delegates was as if he were talking to a meeting of congressional Republicans. Five years had passed since the failure of the previous round of talks at Copenhagen, he said. Since then, the scientific understanding had advanced. What was once a distant threat had, the president claimed, moved firmly into the present, although the president did not mention that global temperatures have been flat for a decade and a half and that there had been little scientific advance to explain it.

Those words were prologue to the president’s blunt warning. The U.S. is stepping up to the plate, the president declared. The U.S. must be joined by other nations. Nobody gets a pass, especially the big emerging economies, climate change code for India and China, whose leaders were giving the summit a pass. Solving climate change was a matter of taking a lead, the president said, making the improbable claim that giving a lead is what the United Nations General Assembly is for.

There were quite a number of empty seats in the chamber as the president spoke. Secretary of State John Kerry played with his BlackBerry. Many looked bored. At the end of the president’s remarks, the most enthusiastic applause came from DiCaprio. Perhaps that’s because he’s good actor. The climate change talks might be attracting dwindling audiences. But there’s one thing you can bet on: the climate change show will run and run. 

Ah Well.

Maybe there is a silver lining in the celebrity cloud.

More women than men – throughout history

September 26, 2014

The Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology is pioneering many new techniques of investigative genetics and is causing minor revolutions in many areas of anthropology. Perhaps the best known of these is Svante Pääbo and his group’s work on extracting and analysing ancient DNA.  Their work on the Neanderthal genome is changing the previously accepted history of Modern Humans and their relationships with Neanderthals, Denisovans and other ancient branches of homo erectus.

A new paper reports on a DNA study of 623 males from 51 different populations and comes to the conclusion that throughout history women have outnumbered men. The study compared the paternally-inherited Y chromosome (NRY) with maternally inherited mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). The researchers developed a high-resolution Y chromosome sequencing assay that allowed them to get paternal and maternal histories of similar quality and resolution. Female populations were larger before the out-of-Africa migration(s) and remained so throughout almost all subsequent migrations. Women migrated more (presumably as they were married out) and men stayed put more. For most of our history a greater proportion of women in the population reproduced than men leading to females making a larger genetic contribution to the current global population than males did. Men tended to fertilise multiple females (perhaps an indicator of polygyny).

CBS News: …. people in East Asia and Europe have larger genetic differences for paternal than for maternal DNA, suggesting high levels of female migration. In contrast, populations in Africa, Oceania and the Americas have bigger differences for maternal DNA than for paternal DNA.

Human paternal and maternal demographic histories: insights from high-resolution Y chromosome and mtDNA sequences, Sebastian Lippold, Hongyang Xu, Albert Ko, Mingkun Li, Gabriel Renaud, Anne Butthof, Roland Schroeder and Mark Stoneking, Investigative Genetics 2014, 5: 13

Eurekalert:

Female populations have been larger than male populations throughout human history, according to research published today in the open access journal Investigative Genetics. The research used a new technique to obtain higher quality paternal genetic information to analyse the demographic history of males and females in worldwide populations.

The study compared the paternally-inherited Y chromosome (NRY) with maternally inherited mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) of 623 males from 51 populations. The analysis showed that female populations were larger before the out-of-Africa migration and remained so throughout almost all subsequent migrations. The main drivers of this trend are likely to be processes such as polygyny, where one male mates with many females, and the fact that in most societies, women tend to move to live with their husbands. This has resulted in females making a greater genetic contribution to the global population than males.

Previous research on genetic history has used different techniques to analyse NRY and mtDNA, which has led to an ascertainment bias in the results. In this study, researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology developed a high-resolution Y chromosome sequencing assay that allowed them to get paternal and maternal histories of similar quality and resolution, so they could make a direct comparison. The results confirmed previous findings that when comparing human populations on a global scale, there are greater genetic differences in paternal NRY than in mtDNA. However, these differences are not as large as previously thought and the authors were surprised to see substantial variation in relative amounts of NRY vs. mtDNA differentiation at the regional level.

The authors argue that using this new technique, greater analysis can be undertaken at a regional level to create a clearer picture of the paternal and maternal influences on specific populations. In the African populations they studied, they saw lower paternal genetic diversity, which may be a direct result of the Bantu expansion into eastern and southern Africa beginning about three thousand years ago. In samples taken from the Americas, initial results suggest higher maternal genetic diversity, indicating that there were fewer males than females among the original colonisers.

Dr. Mark Stoneking, Department of Evolutionary Genetics, Max Planck Institute, an author on the paper, said: “Our new sequencing technique removes previous biases, giving us a richer source of information about our genetic history. It allows us to take a closer look at the regional differences in populations, providing insights into the impact of sex-biased processes on human genetic variation.”

BJP dumps Shiv Sena. As expected?

September 25, 2014

The 25 year old alliance between the BJP and Shiv Sena is finally over. Of course it was actually an alliance between Bal Thackeray and the BJP and without him the Shiv Sena is just a shadow of what it once was (and some might say that it was always a blight on Indian politics with Bal Thackeray – and being a shadow of a blight without him was a welcome shift to the light!). But the simple reality is that the BJP – at national level – does not need the Shiv Sena. In fact they are a liability.

ToI: The 25-year-old BJP-Shiv Sena alliance split on Thursday amid continued deadlock over seat-sharing for the October 15 Maharashtra assembly polls.

After several rounds of talks over the last few days, senior state BJP leaders announced on Thursday evening severing of the ties between the two parties, blaming Shiv Sena’s “inflexibility” for it.

“We have conveyed our decision to snap ties to Shiv Sena. The decision was taken with a heavy heart,” Maharashtra BJP chief Devendra Fadnavis told reporters after a meeting of the state party’s core committee.

While this split is just for the Maharashtra elections, it is effectively a national split since the Shiv Sena is a zero without or outside of Maharashtra.

After the Modi wave at the general elections it was only a matter of time. Back in July I speculated

The biggest credibility challenge that Narendra Modi faces is to convince Indians – and the outside world – that he represents something much larger, secular and inclusive than the narrow, religiously-bigoted  and exclusive position espoused by the RSS and some even more extreme Hindu nationalist groups. But he has to do this equitably but without giving the perception of appeasing the Muslim fanatics.

And he has to clean his own house first. His ally in Maharashtra, the Shiv Sena, is now an embarrassment and a liability. Within his own party also there is no dearth of intellectually retarded loud-mouths. They are all now a burden and unless he cuts them down to size they have the potential to negate all his efforts to be  inclusive.

The Shiv Sena is a special case and I think Modi can afford to dump them. They have just made utter fools of themselves  ……..

……. The Shiv Sena remains a force – if only in Maharashtra – but they are in a declining spiral and my reading is that it would be least damaging for Modi to dump them now – early on in his term – and cap his losses.

 

MOM’s first image from Mars

September 25, 2014

ISRO has released the first image taken by MOM on Mars.

Taken from a height of 7300 km; with 376 m spatial resolution.

Shades of pink and brown, but I am not sure why the lighter shades around each crater reminds me of gas bubbling through sand. The “streaks” in the bottom right quadrant are suggestive of “wind effects” in a sea of sand.

 

Cliches to avoid from the CIA’s “Bestiary of intelligence writing”

September 25, 2014

Whatever one may think of the CIA, their reports are usually succinct and precise and an example to be followed by verbose NGO’s, second-rate scientists and  – especially – government departments. (Of course there are many examples, from Iraq for example, where their reports are not accurate or are just plain fiction – but they are well written). The US Department of Energy  – in my experience – have much to learn. They judge those who receive funding by the thickness of the reports they submit. The suspicion was that the US DoE actually employed people to measure and register the thickness of each report submitted to them. They then employed others to plot and correlate funding versus thickness-inches of reports submitted!! As a young researcher we had the benefit of a boss who trained us both to  “reduce 3 pages to 1” for scientific publication and also to “expand 1 page to 5” for the reports we had to submit every quarter for a DoE funded project.

Washington Post: The CIA has been hiding something from us: It once had a sense of humor — not to mention Maurice Sendak-esque artistic skills, all before the unfunny news of the agency’s role in the Iran-Contra scandal broke in 1986.

The 1982 fall edition of “Studies in Intelligence,” the CIA internal newsletter, describes a “collection of strange fauna” known as the “Bestiary of Intelligence Writing.” It was an illustrated guide for national security writers on cringeworthy cliches, with apologies to “A Political Bestiary,” a book by James Kilpatrick, former U.S. senator Eugene McCarthy and editorial cartoonist Jeff MacNelly.

 CIA Bestiary of Intelligence writing

(I have posted earlier about the CIA Style Manual: CIA Style Manual)

The author is only identified as (b)(3)(c) and he is also the illustrator

Older employees may recall that when the Headquarters Building was being constructed, guard dogs stalked the corridors by night to sniff out trespassers. Practically no one is aware, however, of the collection of strange fauna in a corner of a sub-basement, the location of which must remain secret. This collection known as the Bestiary of Intelligence Writing, consists of specimen samples of cliches and misused or overused word combinations that CIA editors have encountered frequently over the years.

Now for the first time, the Curator of the Collection has received permission to reveal the existence of the Bestiary and identify some of its principal specimens for the enlightenment, education and general edification of CIA writers. It is hoped that with their new awareness of the Bestiary, analysts and other authors will keep their eyes peeled, noses to the grindstone and ears to the ground, to call the attention of editors to other candidates for possible inclusion in the collection.

The Collection

  1. Multidisciplinary analysis.

  2. Viable alternatives.

  3. Mounting crises.

  4. Parameters

  5. Heightened tensions.

  6. Dire straits.

  7. Far-reaching implication.

  8. Available evidence.

  9. Foreseeable future.

  10. Almost inevitable.

  11. Nonstarter.

  12. Economic constraints.

  13. Broad outlines.

  14. Net effect.

  15. Overwhelming majority

This is the entry for “Overwhelming majority”

CIA Overwhelming majority - from the Bestiary

CIA Overwhelming majority – from the Bestiary

CIA OM text

 

MOM orbit exactly as planned with a flawless MOI

September 24, 2014

ISRO can feel very satisfied. The MOI was flawless. The tracking indicates that the MOM has achieved an orbit of 421.7 km / 76993.6 km compared to the planned 423 km / 80,000 km. Not bad after a 10 month journey of some 680 million km. The inclination of orbit with respect to the equatorial plane of Mars is 150º and exactly as planned. 

The first colour pictures of Mars from MOM are expected within a day or two.

Now for a manned, fast, free-return, fly-by of Mars in 2018?

ISRO: India’s Mars Orbiter Spacecraft successfully entered into an orbit around planet Mars today morning (September 24, 2014) by firing its 440 Newton Liquid Apogee Motor (LAM) along with eight smaller liquid engines. This Liquid Engines firing operation which began at 07:17:32 Hrs IST lasted for 1388.67 seconds which changed the velocity of the spacecraft by 1099 metre/sec. With this operation, the spacecraft entered into an elliptical orbit around Mars. 

The events related to Mars Orbit Insertion progressed satisfactorily and the spacecraft performance was normal. The Spacecraft is now circling Mars in an orbit whose nearest point to Mars (periapsis) is at 421.7 km and farthest point (apoapsis) at 76,993.6 km. The inclination of orbit with respect to the equatorial plane of Mars is 150 degree, as intended. In this orbit, the spacecraft takes 72 hours 51 minutes 51 seconds to go round the Mars once.

Spaceflight101: Launched back on November 5, 2013 atop a Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle, the Mars Orbiter was constrained by the performance of India’s workhorse launcher that required the spacecraft to take the scenic route – first entering an elliptical Earth orbit that the spacecraft raised by making six engine burns before firing its main engine, the Liquid Apogee Motor, a seventh time to depart Earth and enter a path to Mars on November 30. ….. 

The Mars Orbit Insertion Burn had a planned change in velocity of 1,098.7 meters per second with an anticipated burn time of 24 minutes and 14 seconds. However, engine shutdown was triggered by the navigation system when accelerometers sensed that the proper delta-v was achieved, dynamically adjusting for actual engine performance by extending of shortening the burn slightly. 

For MOM, the sun came up 19.5 minutes into its burn, but Earth was not coming into view until three minutes after the scheduled end of the Mars Orbit Insertion burn. The spacecraft was programmed to start the re-orientation back to its comm attitude one minute after shutdown, followed five minutes later by the re-activation of the communications system when MOM was visible from Earth again.
The Mars Orbit Insertion Burn had a planned change in velocity of 1,098.7 meters per second with an anticipated burn time of 24 minutes and 14 seconds. However, engine shutdown was triggered by the navigation system when accelerometers sensed that the proper delta-v was achieved, dynamically adjusting for actual engine performance by extending of shortening the burn slightly. 
For MOM, the sun came up 19.5 minutes into its burn, but Earth was not coming into view until three minutes after the scheduled end of the Mars Orbit Insertion burn. The spacecraft was programmed to start the re-orientation back to its comm attitude one minute after shutdown, followed five minutes later by the re-activation of the communications system when MOM was visible from Earth again.

Obama and the UN recycle 25 year old alarmist propoganda

September 24, 2014

At the UN summit on climate change Obama has been recycling the same alarmist propaganda that was coming out of the UN 25 years ago.

Reblogged from Real Science:

September 23rd, 2014

Dire warning on climate

President Obama on Tuesday delivered a call to arms against climate change at the United Nations, telling 125 leaders that they are “the last generation” with the power to prevent a global catastrophe.

Dire warning on climate | TheHill

Obama’s teleprompter is recycling identical UN propaganda from 25 years ago.

June 30, 1989

GRIM FORECAST

A senior environmental official at the United Nations, Noel Brown, says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000. Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of “eco-refugees,” threatening political chaos, said Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program. He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control

San Jose Mercury News (CA) Mercury News: Search Results

Twenty five years of screeching while global warming has been absent for at least the last 18!! Twenty five years of proposing an ineffective solution to the wrong problem. Twenty five years of proposing actions which have no measurable objectives.

Australian climate science

September 24, 2014

These are Climate activists in Australia, hard at work studying the atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere. The action was to show their support for the UN talkshop.

It is Down Under after all.

It could be the BOM.

crankycurfew productions

Heads Down, Bums Up! Studying the climate Down Under  – crankycurfew productions

first seen at JoNova.

MOM successfully enters Mars orbit – first time ever on a maiden Mars mission

September 24, 2014

In what appears to have been a remarkably flawless and precise operation ISRO’s MOM has entered Mars orbit. It is the first time that a country has succeeded to get a spacecraft to enter Martian orbit on its maiden attempt.

“We have the signal.

1099 m/s.

Expected – 1098.7 m/s”

(The Mars Orbit Insertion burn had a planned duration of 24 minutes and 14 seconds, slowing the spacecraft down by 1,098.7 meters per second to be captured in an elliptical orbit around Mars.)

The operations took place while the spacecraft was behind Mars. It seemed an endless wait for it to reappear. It was then a seemingly endless 12.5 minutes from when telemetry was reactivated and the signals were received confirming that the maneuvers had been successful.

The precise orbit achieved now awaits further tracking information.

Foto

Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived at ISRO in time to witness the critical and historical phases of the orbit insertion procedures (and he is to be highly commended for preferring real things to the meaningless, pointless and futile climate change talkshop at the UN).

He was more than a little pleased.

Narendra Modi at ISRO after MOM achieved orbit — screen grab by The Hindu

A major step not just for India’s confidence in its technological capabilities but also for its geopolitical positioning against China.

BBC: If all goes well and the satellite orbits the Red Planet, India’s space agency will become the fourth in the world after those of the United States, Russia and Europe to undertake a successful Mars mission. …..

…… After India’s successful unmanned Chandrayaan mission to the Moon in 2008 that brought back the first clinching evidence of the presence of water there, the Mars mission, according to K Radhakrishnan, chairman of the Indian Space Research Organisation (Isro), is a “natural progression”. …….

India sees the Mars mission as an opportunity to beat its regional rival China in reaching the planet, especially after a Russian mission carrying the first Chinese satellite to Mars failed in November 2011. Japan also failed in a similar effort in 1998.

China has beaten India in space in almost every aspect so far: it has rockets that can lift four times more weight than India’s, and in 2003, successfully launched its first human space flight which India has not yet embarked on. China launched its maiden mission to the Moon in 2007, ahead of India.

So if India’s mission succeeds, it will have something to feel proud about.

Culmination nears for India’s Mars Orbiter Mission

September 23, 2014

In 8 hours – if everything goes as planned – the MOM would have been inserted into Mars orbit of 423 km at periareion and 80,000 Kilometers at apoareion  at an inclination of 150 degrees and with an orbital period of a little more than three days. Though a number of experiments are planned, the most important objectives of the mission – to demonstrate technology and capability – will largely have been accomplished on getting into orbit.

Frugal engineering and with a cost of about 10% of that of NASA’s MAVEN will have taken ISRO’s MOM into Mars orbit – and at the first attempt.

But the next few hours will be tense and nervous not only for ISRO mission staff but for the many millions of Indians who will be following the live webcast at http://webcast.isro.gov.in/. The critical operations will take place while the MOM spacecraft is occluded on the far side of Mars and when signals will be taking over 12 minutes to reach earth.

Spaceflight101: 

The critical Mars Orbit Insertion Burn Sequence will begin three hours ahead of the planned maneuver time when the spacecraft automatically switches over to its Medium Gain Antenna for communications since the High Gain Antenna will be pointing away from Earth during the retrograde burn.
21 minutes ahead of ignition, the spacecraft will begin the re-orientation to the proper attitude for the burn, pointing LAM to the direction of travel. The re-orientation is accomplished using the vehicle’s Reaction Wheels. Five minutes and 13 seconds ahead of the burn, the spacecraft passes into darkness – for the first time since leaving Earth last year. In advance, MOM will fully charge its battery to be in a safe configuration for the eclipse.
Three minutes ahead of the burn, the vehicle’s eight 22-Newton thrusters are enabled to start providing attitude control which they will continue to do throughout the main engine burn, keeping MOM pointing forward. Ignition of the Liquid Apogee Motor is planned at 1:47:32 UTC on Wednesday, September 24, 7:17 Indian Standard Time. The Mars Orbit Insertion burn has a planned duration of 24 minutes and 14 seconds, slowing the spacecraft down by 1,098.7 meters per second to be captured in an elliptical orbit around Mars. During the burn, the engines will consume 249.5 Kilograms of propellant leaving only about 40 Kilograms of propellant for the rest of the mission.
Should something go wrong during the burn, MOM is programmed to react appropriately in order to achieve a stable orbit around Mars – even if that means to spend all the vehicle’s propellant to do so. In the event the Liquid Apogee Motor is not ignited or its burn is cut short, MOM would automatically switch to the 22-Newton thrusters to supply as much delta-v as possible. Due to their lower thrust, the 22N thrusters would need to fire much longer than LAM along a greater stretch around the periapsis pass which will increase propellant consumption and leave MOM in a higher orbit.
MOI timeline

Graphic ISRO (via spaceflight101)