Markets surge as Indian exit polls are awaited after close of polls today

May 12, 2014

UPDATE!

Narendra Modi - The next Indian Prime Minister (photo Forbes)

Narendra Modi – The next Indian Prime Minister (photo Forbes)

The real results have to wait till Friday but early exit poll results suggest that

  • the BJP led alliance (NDA) will get over 280 seats in the Lok Sabha (272 needed for majority) while the Congress led alliance (UPA) will get less than 120 seats. 
  • BJP will be the largest single party
  • the AAP may get 5 seats
  • Narendra Modi will be the next Prime Minister

The markets rose over 3% today.

Turnout was a record at just over 66% (of an electorate of over 800 million voters).

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The Indian markets are reacting to rumours and “inside information” as to what the exit polls will reveal when they are published later today. The Election Commission has confirmed that the results of exit polls – which have been carried out over the last 6 weeks of polling and are prepared and waiting to be released – can be released after the polls close at 1830 local time (1500 CET) on the last day of the last phase of voting today.

Exit polls don’t have a very good record in predicting the result of Indian elections – especially when they are extrapolated. But we have the peculiar situation of markets being driven by the expectations of what the exit polls will say and where the actual results will not be known till Friday. Capital inflow from overseas has been particularly high and there is a feeling that this cannot be just on the advice of local investors without any special knowledge. There is a suggestion – not at all implausible – that some large investors and their overseas partners may well have carried out their own, private, exit polls. And, the story goes, these show that Narendra Modi and the BJP will get close to an absolute majority.

On Friday the BSE Sensex rose over 3% and so far today has risen another 2+%  – over 1000 points in a day and a half of trading.

BSE Sensex 12th May noon

BSE Sensex 12th May noon (Reuters)

NDTV: 

It seems that investors are betting that the BJP-led NDA will emerge victorious on May 16, when results are announced, analysts say.

“There is a lot of political hope that has got baked in valuations. Markets are factoring numbers close to 230-240 seats for the BJP alone, and if that is the case, the NDA will get a majority on its own. That will lead to pro-growth, right of central, stable formation, which is enthusing for the investors,” said Manishi Raychaudhri, strategist and head of research at BNP Paribas Securities.

Polls have consistently shown the BJP and its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi ahead, raising expectations that the opposition party, which is seen by markets as being more investor- and business-friendly, will either win or come close to an outright majority. The surprising part, however, is markets seem to be factoring in the best possible scenario (stable government led by Mr Modi) even before exit poll results, due later in the day. 

 One possibility why markets have not waited for exit poll results might have to do with speculation that big investors have already got a whiff of what results would be. In fact, overseas investors bought shares worth Rs. 1,268.78 crore in the cash market on Friday, their biggest purchase since March 28. Friday’s gains came at a time when markets had shed 2 per cent after hitting a record high of April 25. Clearly, smart money had some information. 

Deven Choksey, managing director of brokerage KR Choksey told NDTV that somewhere from the media, numbers suggesting that the BJP will get 260-270 seats, came out. It was in circulation on social media and markets took advantage of that, he said.

 

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Israel is not immune from the neo-Nazi disease

May 12, 2014

Most countries in Europe have an enormous guilt complex – both singly and collectively – over the persecution of Jews in their countries for many hundreds of years and the indifference to what was happening in Germany which allowed Hitler’s Holocaust to take place. This persecution started at least 2,000 years ago but was organised  and well established by the time of the First Crusade in 1096 as the European nation-states developed and practiced enforced conversions. The Spanish Inquisition in 1478 was primarily directed at Jews (and Muslims) forced to convert to Catholicism. Much of this guilt now devolves to the credit of the nation-state of Israel even though this nation-state exists only as a consequence of  a very successful terrorist campaign carried out by Irgun and Hagganah. In a sense the creation of the nation-state of Israel was an attempt by the European countries to do what Hitler had tried to do with the Holocaust  – export the “Jewish Question” to somewhere else.

With that history of persecution of their fore-fathers, it could be expected that Jews in Israel would be especially sensitive to the persecution of minorities. But the nation-state of Israel is not synonymous with the persecuted Jews of Europe. More than 90% of Israel’s population of 8.1 million was born after the country was formed. Since the formation of Israel in 1948 (14th May), Israel and Israelis have been more of persecutors than persecuted against. And the youth of Israel have never actually experienced any persecution themselves.Their religious fanatics are just as “radicalised” and just as bent on “revenge” or Holy war as the European Muslim youth now keeping the Syrian civil war alive. Past persecution is clearly no defence against idiocy.

Right-wing neo-Nazism is alive and well all over Europe and even in Israel. And just as idiot- Mullahs radicalise Muslim youth. idiot-Rabbis drive the Israeli neo-Nazis.

Haaretz: The writer and Israel Prize laureate Amoz Oz said on Friday that those responsible for hate crimes against Arabs and Christians are “Hebrew neo-Nazis.”

Speaking at a Tel Aviv event marking his 75th birthday, Oz said that terms like “hilltop youth” and “price tag” are “sweet names for a monster that needs to be called what it is: Hebrew neo-Nazis groups.”

Oz added that in his mind, perhaps the only difference between neo-Nazis around the world and perpetrators of hate crimes in Israel is that “our neo-Nazi groups enjoy the support of numerous nationalist or even racist legislators, as well as rabbis who give them what is in my view pseudo-religious justification.”

Of course Amoz Oz is now being castigated for even using the word “Nazi” in relation to Jews. But the reality is that Israeli politicians and religious leaders give tacit support to the persecution of and discrimination against Muslims. The indignation at the use of the word “Nazi” is the same as that against Kerry for calling Israel an apartheid state.

But, I think, their indignation is misplaced and they protest too much.

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Indian business hoping for/predicting a Modi/BJP landslide

May 10, 2014

The Great Indian Election Tamasha comes to an end on Monday and the results will be announced by the Election Commission on Friday, May 16th.

The Indian Stock Exchange (BSE Sensex) is riding very high. On Friday the index reached record levels and rose almost 3%. Business is looking for a stable and effective government. The last term of the Congress led government was one of the most ineffective terms of any government. Not least due to the coalition government which was virtually paralysed in the arms of its many and varied partners. Each of the regional coalition partners were more interested in cashing-in (politically and economically) than in governing or governance. The BJP in opposition was a party of disruption and their objective was to ensure and show that the government was ineffective. Parliament was more often disrupted than in session.

Insofar as the Stock Exchange reflects the hopes and predictions of the business community, a Narendra Modi / BJP government is certain. Two years ago I would have thought this was not possible but by December 2012, I became convinced that Narendra Modi would be the next Prime Minister.  As the election has progressed and the Modi wave has been sustained, the stock exchange has moved inexorably upwards. The new kids on the block – the Aam Admi Party – had threatened to be a spoiler for Modi (and it could still happen) but they are increasingly looking lost. Their leader’s resignation as Chief Minister of Delhi has only strengthened the view that the party lacks substance. They can make a noise and oppose anybody and anything, but they are scared of – and incapable of – governing.

Back in February this year it became clear that the election would be held at the end of the government’s mandate in April. The actual dates were announced by the Election Commission on March 7th. The optimism in the markets has grown steadily.

Sensex after election announcement 2014 (chart from Bloomberg)

Sensex after election announcement 2014 (chart from Bloomberg)

Indian business, in my experience, is more concerned about the stability and rationality and continuity of government rather than the manifestos of the various parties. They dislike subsidy policies introduced just to woo voters – but are expert at milking subsidies when available. They prefer the slightly more free-market approach of the BJP and are suspicious of ideological socialism and protectionism. But they have had no difficulty with working with Congress led governments as well. What they just don’t want is another government which cannot overcome the internal strains of a coalition and cannot govern. Uncertainty is the prime enemy.

So if the stock exchange is a predictor of the election result then we can expect that Narendra Modi and his BJP will not only win but may even come close to an outright majority. If that happens we can expect a sharp index spike on Monday 19th May – perhaps +4-5%. But if there is no overall majority for Narendra Modi, then we could see the markets fall also very sharply. The Sensex reached 23,000 last Friday. By next Friday it could have crept upto about 24,000. Then depending upon Modi’s majority it could spike to over 25,000. But if Modi has no clear majority and another wishy-washy government is in prospect, it could drop to around 22,000 (-10%).

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India has 13 of the world’s 20 most polluted cities with New Delhi as the worst

May 9, 2014

The WHO has released the 2014 update of its Ambient Air Pollution database.

The database contains results of ambient (outdoor) air pollution monitoring from almost 1600 cities in 91 countries. Air quality is represented by annual mean concentration of fine particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5, i.e. particles smaller than 10 or 2.5 microns).

The database covers the period from 2008 to 2013, with the majority of values for the years 2011 and 2012. The primary sources of data include publicly available national/subnational reports and web sites, regional networks such as the Asian Clean Air Initiative and the European Airbase, and selected publications. The database aims to be representative for human exposure, and therefore primarily captures measurements from monitoring stations located in urban background, residential, commercial and mixed areas.

The world’s average PM10 levels by region range from 26 to 208 ug/m3, with a world’s average of 71 ug/m3.

India has the dubious distinction of having 6 of the ten worst polluted, 13 of the 20 worst polluted cities and 20 of the 50 most polluted. Needless to say New Delhi is the worst. Delhi, Patna, Gwalior and Raipur are the 4 worst polluted cities in the world. 

50 most polluted cities WHO 2014 (pdf)

Delhi’s preeminent position in the pollution stakes was also reported by the Yale 2014 Environmental Performance Index which I posted about in February. I wrote then:

Whether Delhi is worse or better than Beijing is irrelevant. The point is that Delhi is as bad as it is.

I visit Delhi 5 or 6 times every year and it has the worst air quality that I experience. It is dust particles in the main – and a lot of that is from the ubiquitous building rubble and  building materials lying in piles (some small and some large) all over the city. The diesel engine particulates have – I think – reduced after the introduction of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) for taxis and autos but they build up every night when the long-distance trucks roll through the city (they are banned during the day).

But Delhi is essentially a huge building site. In new building projects (many for domestic dwellings), building materials (bricks, sand, cement, tiles, sewer pipes….) are all brought and dumped in open piles on the street long before any building actually commences. Even completed building projects leave behind their piles of sand and bricks and rubble on the street which are never cleaned up. If a road is dug up for any reason the remaining mud and rubble is never actually cleared up . it is usually just pushed to one side. The last mile syndrome applies and nothing ever gets finally or properly finished.

But the real issue is one of attitude and behaviour. .. 

Delhi’s atmosphere is what it is because the citizens of Delhi do not give any value to it being any better.

I travel to Delhi 5 or 6 times a year and can vouch for the muck and grime both in the air and on the ground. The problem is not one of money or of technology but of attitudes. The population of Delhi – on average – just does not give much value to the quality of the environment they live in. The politicians are followers rather than leaders and none have the courage to follow a vision of what Delhi could be like

The Indian General Election results are due out in a week.

Toilets before temples may win the day. 

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When it comes to climate change, “hot” = “cold”!

May 9, 2014

Why climate change is “bad” when nobody really knows what static climate is to be desired, and where climate stagnation would mean that the earth was dead, escapes me.

Taking pot shots at The Guardian on climate change is not very intellectually challenging, but sometimes the temptation cannot be resisted.

June 2011: Britain’s hot spring could be result of shrinking Arctic

March 2013: Scientists link frozen spring to dramatic Arctic sea ice loss

The first article was written by Robin Mckie, “Science Editor” and the second by John Vidal, “Environment Editor”. Which leads to the inevitable conclusion that for The Guardian, “hot” may be synonymous with “cold” but “environment” and “science” have entirely different values.

arctic ice guardian 2

 

arctic ice guardian 1

 

(h/t NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT)

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Conclusion that Förster manipulated data is “unavoidable”

May 8, 2014

Retraction Watch has now obtained and translated the report of the investigation by the Dutch National Board for Scientific Integrity (LOWI) into the suspicions about Jens Förster’s research. The conclusions are unavoidable that data manipulation must have taken place and could not have been the result of “sloppy science”.

Here are some of the highlights from the document, which we’ve had translated by a Dutch speaker:

“According to the LOWI, the conclusion that manipulation of the research data has taken place is unavoidable […] intervention must have taken place in the presentation of the results of the … experiment”

“The analyses of the expert … did add to [the Complainant’s report] that these linear patterns were specific for the primary analyses in the … article and did not show in subsets of the data, such as gender groups. [The expert stated that] only goal-oriented intervention in the entire dataset could have led this result.”

“There is an “absence of any form of accountability of the raw data files, as these were collected with questionnaires, and [there is an] absence of a convincing account by the Accused of the way in which the data of the experiments in the previous period were collected and processed.”

“[T]he assistants were not aware of the goal and hypotheses of the experiments [and] the LOWI excludes the possibility that the many research assistants, who were involved in the data collection in these experiments, could have created such exceptional statistical relations.”

What is particularly intriguing is the method of statistical investigation that was applied. Suspicions were not only because the data showed a remarkable linearity but that sub-sets of the data did not. The first suggests confirmation bias (cherry picking) but the second brings data manipulation into play. Non-linearity in sub-sets of data cannot just neatly cancel themselves out giving – fortuitously for the hypothesis – a linearity in the complete data set. The investigation methods are of more value than the Förster paper to be retracted.

I have an aversion to “science” based on questionnaires and “primed” subjects. They are almost as bad as the social psychology studies carried out based on Facebook or Twitter responses. They give results which can rarely be replicated. (I have an inherent suspicion of questionnaires due to my own “nasty” habit of “messing around” with my responses to questionnaires – especially when I am bored or if the questionnaire is a marketing or a political study).

Psychology Today:

Of course priming works— it couldn’t not work. But the lack of control over the information contained in social priming experiments guarantees unreliable outcomes for specific examples.  ..  

This gets worse because social priming studies are typically between-subject designs, and (shock!) different people are even more different from each other than the same people at different times! 

Then there’s also the issue of whether the social primes used across replications are, in fact, the same. It is currently impossible to be sure, because there is no strong theory of what the information is for these primes. In more straight forward perceptual priming (see below) if I present the same stimulus twice I know I’ve presented the same stimulus twice. But the meaning of social information depends not only on what the stimulus is but also who’s giving it and their relationship to the person receiving it, not to mention the state that person is in.

… In social priming, therefore, replicating the design and the stimuli doesn’t actually mean you’ve run the same study. The people are different and there’s just no way to make sure they are all experiencing the same social stimulus, the same information

And results from such studies, if they cannot be replicated, and even if they are the honest results of the study, have no applicability to anything wider than that study.

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The puzzle of the reduction of US nuclear warheads

May 7, 2014

Another factoid supporting my perception that Barack Obama is more hype than substance.

Virtually all the reductions of US nuclear warheads since 1983 have been made during the tenures of Republican Presidents (Ronald Reagan, Papa Bush and Bush Jr.) There have been virtually no reductions under Clinton and Obama.

The massive reductions in Reagan and Bush Sr.’s time came – not unexpectedly – as the Soviet Union collapsed. Paradoxically, even during the younger Bush’s war-mongering times, and even with the perceived nuclear threats from Iran and N. Korea, a substantial number of nuclear warheads were dismantled or retired. But virtually nothing has happened under Clinton and Obama.

io9 wonders why?

US reduction of nuclear warheads since 1983 graphic from io9

US reduction of nuclear warheads since 1983 graphic from io9

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The EU Parliament at work

May 7, 2014

The European Parliament must be the most useless, unnecessary, wasteful and undemocratic parliament of any in the world.

766 MEP’s are each paid €7,000 per month.

Roger Helmer hard at work in the European Parliament

Parliament in session

Enthusiastic attendance

A hereditary seat to be handed down?

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A multiverse model of the Universe from 800 years ago

May 6, 2014

Bishop Robert Grosseteste, detail of a window on the South transept Westernmost. St Paul’s Parish Church, Morton, Near Gainsborough. 1896

Robert Grosseteste (ca. 1168–1253), Bishop of Lincoln from 1235 to 1253, was one of the most prominent and remarkable figures in thirteenth-century English intellectual life. His views on light and matter were some 800 years in advance of his time.

If a single leitmotif runs through Grosseteste’s works, it is that of light. The notion of light occupies a prominent place in Grosseteste’s commentaries on the Bible, in his account of sense perception and the relation of body and soul, in his illuminationist theory of knowledge, in his account of the origin and nature of the physical world, and, of course, in his writings on optics. 

 

His treatise De Luce (meaning “Concerning Light”), written in 1225, describes a Universe created via a Big Bang-like explosion of light before forming into a series of nine celestial spheres.

Past Horizons:

The Ordered Universe Project, which brings together physicists, psychologists, cosmologists, Latin experts and medieval historians, has been studying the texts of Robert Grosseteste, one-time Bishop of Lincoln. The team created a fresh Latin translation, aided by other experts with knowledge of the medieval mindset and its context, before applying modern mathematical and computational techniques to Grosseteste’s equations. ….

Dr Giles Gasper, the Ordered Universe Project’s Principal Investigator and Associate Director of Durham University’s Institute of Medieval and Early Modern Studies, said: “De Luce is the earliest known attempt to describe the Universe using a coherent set of physical laws, centuries before Sir Isaac Newton.

“It proposes that the same physics of light and matter, which explain the solidity of ordinary objects, could be applied to the cosmos as a whole. In doing so it also suggests, although this was probably not apparent to Grosseteste at the time, a series of ordered universes reminiscent of the modern “multiverse” concept.

“Grosseteste’s calculations are very consistent and precise. Had he had access to modern calculus and computing methods, he surely would have used them, so that is what the team has done.”

Richard G. Bower, Tom C. B. McLeish, Brian K. Tanner, Hannah E. Smithson , Cecilia Panti, Neil Lewis, Giles E. M. Gasper, A Medieval Multiverse: Mathematical Modelling of the 13th Century Universe of Robert Grosseteste, Royal Society Journal, Proceedings of the Royal Society A, arXiv:1403.0769

Abstract: In his treatise on light, written in about 1225, Robert Grosseteste describes a cosmological model in which the Universe is created in a big-bang like explosion and subsequent condensation. He postulates that the fundamental coupling of light and matter gives rises to the material body of the entire cosmos. Expansion is arrested when matter reaches a minimum density and subsequent emission of light from the outer region leads to compression and rarefaction of the inner bodily mass so as to create nine celestial spheres, with an imperfect residual core. In this paper we reformulate the Latin description in terms of a modern mathematical model. The equations which describe the coupling of light and matter are solved numerically, subject to initial conditions and critical criteria consistent with the text. Formation of a universe with a non-infinite number of perfected spheres is extremely sensitive to the initial conditions, the intensity of the light and the transparency of these spheres. In this “medieval multiverse”, only a small range of opacity and initial density profiles lead to a stable universe with nine perfected spheres. As in current cosmological thinking, the existence of Grosseteste’s universe relies on a very special combination of fundamental parameters.

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God is an hypothesis and a mathematician is a linguist

May 6, 2014

Science discovers, engineering invents.

Eyes are to vision as language is to discovery.

To be discovered it must first be imaginable.

To describe and communicate what can be imagined needs language.

To be “discovered” requires that something imagined in a language be “sensed” (observed or measured or calculated or inferred).

Something imagined to exist but not yet discovered is a faith – an hypothesis.

Without the attribute of hearing, there is no sound.

Discoveries need a suitable language to first describe them before they can be found (Mathematics, Chemistry, Algebra, Logic….).

Language is an invention and can not be discovered.

The application of discovered science to the manufacturing of artefacts is engineering.

Mathematics is a language and a mathematician is a linguist (an engineer).

Logic is a language and a logician is a philosopher.

Philosophers imagine and describe but neither discover nor invent.

Music is a science and a musician is a scientist.

Painting (or sculpture) is engineering and the artist is an engineer.

Medicine is a science but a practising physician is an engineer.

The symbol for a thing is not the thing.

God is an hypothesis and a mathematician is a linguist.

 

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