Alternate paths to Mars: NASA’s MAVEN compared to India’s MOM

November 16, 2013

Update! 18th November 2013. The launch of MAVEN – in about 1 hour from now – can be seen live on NASA TV.

The Indian Mars Orbiter Mission is primarily a test of technology and capability and self-confidence and self-belief.

With a very limited budget.

The scientific investigations of the planet and the Martian atmosphere are only a secondary or even a tertiary objective. For the Indian mission everything is virtually for the first time. For NASA and the US, the MAVEN mission which is due to launch on Monday 18th November is the 15th Mission to Mars. The first mission (Mariner 3) failed and the second mission, Mariner 4, launched in November 1964 was the first to reach Mars. In the 49 years since there have been a few failures (Mariner 8 in 1971, Mars Observer 1992, Mars Climate Orbiter in 1998 and the Mars Polar lander/Deep Space2 in 1999) and some spectacular successes for NASA with the Mars Global Surveyor in 1996 , the Phoenix Mars Lander in 2007 and the Mars Rover in 2011.

Many Mars missions have failed. Between 1960 and 1971 the Russians (USSR) failed in 11 attempts to send a spacecraft to the vicinity of Mars. The 12th attempt with M-71 in 1971 succeeded in orbiting Mars. Of eight further attempts by Russia, 4 failed to reach Mars. The Japanese Nozomi failed while cruising. Two European missions led to one orbiter (but a failed landing) and one flyby.

On the surface they may both seem to be similar in that both are attempting to get a spacecraft into orbit around Mars. But the missions are, in reality, quite different. MOM is essentially a first-time test of technology and capability whereas MAVEN is primarily a scientific mission utilising the deployment of now well proven US technology. Technology development on the one hand and a scientific investigation on the other.

1. NASA’s Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) is a space probe designed to study the Martian atmosphere while orbiting Mars. India’s Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM – “Mangalyaan”) is a space probe designed to explore Mars’ surface features, morphology, mineralogy and Martian atmosphere using indigenous scientific instruments while orbiting Mars.

2. MAVEN is expected to have a budget of about $672 million. MOM has a budget of about $70 million.

3. The Atlas 5 rocket to be used to launch MAVEN has the capability to lift about 7,000 kg directly into a Geostationary transfer orbit (GTO). This allows MAVEN (2500 kg) to be injected directly into a Trans-Mars trajectory from launch.

The PSLV to be used for MOM can lift about 1300 kg into a GTO. With the MOM having a mass of 1337 kg, it becomes necessary for a  launch first into earth orbit and then a multi-step transition  through ever increasing earth orbits and finally into a Trans-Mars trajectory.

4. MAVEN is due to launch on an Atlas 5 rocket at 1:28 p.m. EST (1828 GMT) on Monday (Nov. 18) from Florida’s Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Within one hour of launch MAVEN will be in a Hohmann Transfer Orbit with periapsis at Earth’s orbit and apoapsis at the distance of the orbit of Mars. MAVEN should reach Mars orbit on 22nd September 2014.

MAVEN trajectory - NASA-LASP-JPL

MAVEN trajectory – NASA-LASP-JPL

Because of the relatively low payload capability of the PSLV for an interplanetary mission MOM will spend more than four weeks in earth orbit and has to be equipped with radiation shielding to endure the numerous passages through earth’s radiation Belts. MOM has fired its Liquid Motor six times – always when passing perigee to gradually increase the apogee of the orbit to work its way up to departing Earth orbit in a fuel-efficient manner. The sixth (including one correction) firing yesterday placed the spacecraft in a 600 by approx 193,000 kilometer orbit around Earth and sets up the proper perigee passage for the final engine burn that puts the vehicle onto its Trans-Martian Trajectory using s standard Hohmann Transfer Orbit on 30th November/ 1st December. MOM should reach Mars orbit on 24th September 2014 (2 days after MAVEN).

mangalyaan trajectory

mangalyaan trajectory

5. MAVEN’s body has a cubical shape of about 2.3 m x 2.3 m x 2 m high, spans a total of 11.4 m with its solar panels deployed and has a lift-off mass of  2,454 kg (including fuel) and has a dry payload of 903 kg.

Mangalyaan’s body is a cuboid measuring about 1.5 m per side, a span of 4.2 m with solar panels deployed and an initial mass of 1337 kg of which 852 kg is fuel.

MAVEN - MOM (NASA- ISRO)

MAVEN – MOM (NASA- ISRO)

6. MAVEN is carrying 8 main, highly sophisticated instruments. Neutral Gas and Ion Mass Spectrometer, Imaging Ultraviolet Spectrograph, Magnetometer, Solar Wind Electron Analyzer, SupraThermal And Thermal Ion Composition, Langmuir Probe and Waves antenna, Solar Energetic Particles, Solar Wind Ion Analyzer

Mangalyaan is carrying a camera, two spectrometers, a radiometer and a photometer. Together, they have a weight of about 15 kg.

7. MAVEN is targeting a science orbit of 150 by 6,200 Kilometers at an inclination of 75 degrees. It will perform measurements from a highly elliptical orbit around Mars over a period of one Earth year, with five “deep dips” at 150 km minimum altitude to sample the upper atmosphere.

Mangalyaan will be much further out and targets an operational orbit of 365 by 80,000 Kilometers with an inclination of 150 degrees and a duration of 76.72 hours from where it will perform its science mission. The MOM mission in Mars orbit is open-ended and is expected to last about 160 days.

8. MAVEN’s science phase features regular communication sessions. The spacecraft points its High Gain Antenna at Earth for high data rate communications twice per week with the exact timing depending on Deep Space Network visibility. Those comm sessions take place on Tuesday and Friday and have a duration of eight hours during which at least five hours of Earth pointing are required to downlink all science data and housekeeping telemetry. 

Mangalyaan is equipped with a 2.2-meter diameter High Gain Antenna which is a parabolic X-Band reflector antenna that is used for data downlink and command uplink. Science data and spacecraft telemetry is stored in two 16Gb Solid State Recorders aboard the vehicle for downlink during regular communications sessions. Low and Medium Gain Antennas are used for low-bandwidth communications such as command uplink and systems telemetry downlink.

As missions go, MAVEN represents a Mercedes “S” class to the Volkswagen that is MOM.

Mangalyaan - MOM (ISRO)

Mangalyaan – MOM (ISRO)

Sources: 

http://www.spaceflight101.com/

http://www.spaceflight101.com/mars-orbiter-mission.html

http://www.spaceflight101.com/maven-mission-profile.html

http://www.nasa.gov/missions/index.html#.UodLu8SkoYE

http://www.space.com/

http://www.isro.org/mars/home.aspx

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Posted in Engineering, India, Science, Space, US | 10 Comments »

Final Mars Orbiter orbit increase successfully completed 15th November 2110 CET

November 15, 2013

ISRO has announced via Facebook that the next burn to raise the earth orbit (apogee) to close to 200,000 km will be carried out at 0127 IST (2057 CET 15th November). If this goes as planned the next manoeuver is expected to be to inject the probe into a Trans-Mars trajectory on 1st December.

2130 CET: Just reported to have been successfully completed “The observed change in Apogee is from 118642 km to 192874 km”.

Updates here as they become available.

UPDATES:  

  • 2045 CET Forward rotation to prepare for burn completed. 
  • 2058 CET: 440N Liquid Engine started firing to raise the apogee to about 192,000 km in this 5th Manoeuver
  • Craft at perigee. Awaiting post burn report.
  • 2110 Burn reported completed
  • It may be a while before tracking data can confirm the new orbit
  • The fifth orbit raising manoeuvre of Mars Orbiter Spacecraft, starting at 01:27:00 hrs (IST) on Nov 16, 2013, with a burn Time of 243.5 seconds has been successfully completed.The observed change in Apogee is from 118642km to 192874km.

===================================

Tonight is going to be the culmination of the various baby steps MOM has been taking by gradually soaring to higher apogees around Mother Earth. This manoeuver, scheduled at 01:27 hrs IST, will take the spacecraft to – almost half the way to moon – about two lakh (200,000) kilometers.

The distance to the moon is 384,400 km (and I make 200,000 to be a little more than half-way)!

mangalyaan final earth orbit increase - isro

mangalyaan final earth orbit increase – isro

At this distance Deep Space Tracking will become necessary.

The Indian Deep Space Network consists of a 18-m and a 32-m antennae that are established at the IDSN campus, Byalalu, Bangalore. The Network is augmented with a couple of stations in the western hemisphere in addition to the 64-m antenna in Bearslake, Russia to improve the visibility duration and to provide support from the antipodal point. …..

External network stations APL, JPL (Goldstone, Canberra, Madrid), Hawaii, Brazil (Alcantara, Cuiaba) are requisitioned in for the purpose of extended visibility of Launch and Early Orbit Phase (LEOP) operations, as well as to gain the near continuous visibility during the normal phase operations. All the external stations will ensure the required compatibility to communicate with the spacecraft.

The network as used for Chandrayaan and expected to be used for Mangalyaan is shown below.

Indian Deep Space Network used for Chandrayaan - isro

Indian Deep Space Network used for Chandrayaan – isro

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China relaxes highly successful one-child policy

November 15, 2013

It was no doubt authoritarian and draconian and there may well be many unforeseen emotional and psychological side-effects to come for many generations, but the bottom line is that the Chinese one-child policy has done the trick insofar as population numbers is concerned. The Chinese population will reach its peak of just under 1.4 billion around 2020 and will then decline dropping to less than 1 billion by 2100. Around 2020, India’s population will exceed the Chinese population and will continue to increase until about 2060 reaching a peak of about 1.7 billion. Then by 2100 the India population will have declined to about 1.5 billion.

Reuters: China unwrapped its boldest set of economic and social reforms in nearly three decades on Friday, relaxing its one-child policy and further freeing up markets in order to put the world’s second-largest economy on a more stable footing.

The sweeping changes helped dispel doubts about the leadership’s zest for the reforms needed to give the economy fresh momentum as three decades of breakneck expansion shows signs of faltering.

The chart below is based on an analysis of the World Population Prospects 2010 and not on the latest 2012 projections. However the numbers and trends are largely the same.

WPP2010 Population projections till 2100

WPP2010 Population projections till 2100

Even if fertility rates now increase much more than predicted, the Chinese government now has a tried and tested – if disliked – population control method to fall back on. An increased fertility rate is now absolutely necessary to avoid a major aging challenge after about 2050 when the ratio of the working population to the supported population could reach crisis levels.

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Posted in Behaviour, China, Demographics, Development | 1 Comment »

Hollande’s France is dragging down the Eurozone and the world

November 15, 2013
Photo - AFP

Photo – AFP

Francois Hollande is a socialist of the old school and about a century behind the times. Fundamentally he has few new ideas beyond tax the rich and create more public sector jobs. He is not even very popular at home just now – but the French have only themselves and Sarkozy’s excesses to blame for having him there. Dominique Strauss-Kahn’s sexual excesses also helped. He makes impossible promises with a straight face. He promises to cut state spending without reducing public sector jobs. He will improve competitiveness without  reducing state subsidies. And he has promised to reduce unemployment by the end of this year. Nonsense promises are not doing much for his credibility.

France’s credit rating is falling and even The Guardian has little good to say about his administration:

The Guardian: France’s second credit-rating downgrade by Standard & Poor’s in less than two years is as damaging politically for the socialist François Hollande as it was for his rightwing predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy, who lost the election shortly after France lost its AAA rating in January 2012.

S&P directly attacked Hollande’s economic policy, questioning the socialist government’s capacity to repair Paris’s stuttering economic motor. It said the problem with France was that the government’s tentative reforms were not enough to lift growth in the eurozone’s second largest economy.

Hollande, recently found to be the most unpopular French president on record in a poll by BVA, was already struggling to sell his economic measures to the nation. “The recovery is here,” Hollande declared in August after a small rebound in growth following months of stagnation. But real, sustained growth is expected to be slow in returning. …… 

And now the economy of France, along with that of Italy, is actually shrinking. The global recovery needs Europe  – and not just Germany – to do its bit. Instead, Hollande’s schoolboy economics are not just threatening the Eurozone recovery but actually threatening to postpone the recovery.

Reuters: The euro zone economy all but stagnated in the third quarter of the year with France’s recovery fizzling out and growth in Germany slowing. The 9.5 trillion euro economy pulled out of its longest recession in the previous quarter but record unemployment, lack of consumer confidence and anaemic bank lending continue to prevent a more solid rebound.

In the three months to September, the combined economy of the 17 countries sharing the euro grew by a slower than expected 0.1 percent. In the previous quarter it rose 0.3 percent – the first expansion in 18 months. The euro fell to a session low in response.

The French economy contracted by 0.1 percent, snuffing out signs of revival in the previous three months. It had been expected to post quarterly growth of 0.1 percent and has now shrunk in three of the last four quarters. ……. 

Unemployment is still increasing even though the number of French seeking jobs outside the country is also increasing. The rich have been fleeing Hollande’s swingeing taxes in droves.

The Telegraph: 

France’s economy has buckled once again amid official warnings of an explosive political mood across the nation that threatens to spin out of control.

French output fell by 0.1pc in the third quarter and Italy remained trapped in recession, dashing hopes of a sustained recovery in Europe. “It is no longer a question of whether the eurozone can achieve ‘escape velocity’, but whether it can grow at all,” said sovereign bond strategist Nicholas Spiro.

The latest data show a continued erosion of France’s industrial base and export share. It risks shattering the credibility of President François Hollande, who has been talking up recovery for months. A YouGov poll showed his approval ratings have dropped to 15pc, the lowest recorded for a French leader in modern times.

While the risk of a eurozone bond crisis has greatly receded since the European Central Bank agreed to act as a lender of last resort in July 2012, this has been replaced by slow economic attrition. It resembles the mid-1930s slump under the Gold Standard and is fuelling political crises in a string of countries.

Le Figaro said loss of confidence in the French government is turning dangerous, citing a confidential report based on surveys by “prefects” in each of the 101 departments. “All across the country, the prefects described the same picture of a society that is angry, exasperated and on edge. A mix of latent discontent and resignation is being expressed through sudden eruptions of fury, almost spontaneously,” said the document. The report warned that people were no longer venting their feelings within normal social structures. Increasing numbers are questioning the “legitimacy” of taxes. …… 

But there is no sign that Hollande will change from his classic policies of more taxes to support a profligate state sector and a bloated welfare system. Regulated austerity is called for but Hollande’s approach will only lead to an unregulated, painful and enforced austerity as in Greece and Spain.

I still believe in Europe and in many French firms but I have taken the precaution of shifting some of my (small) savings out of French stocks. France has not reached its bottom yet!

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India Mars Orbiter Mission Update – 14th November and ISRO is silent

November 14, 2013

In spite of a great deal of ballyhoo about ISRO’s heightened and improved publicity, their website is remarkably short of information or updates. There has been nothing new since they reported that the earth orbit correction had succeeded and that was 48 hours ago. They have not even put out a revised mission plan. No doubt they have to be a typical Indian Government bureaucratic organisation but they have much to learn about public relations. They are still stuck in the paradigm of “No news is good news” and haven’t quite realised that “No news, when news is expected, is bad news”.

I would have thought that they could at least have put out a daily bulletin. The long silence from ISRO suggests that something may be amiss. (The FB page contains virtually no forward looking information – except the pre-mission plans and photographs). 

Indian science journalists apparently just wait for official press releases and have no updates and little background to offer. Their lack of pro-active coverage and apparent lack of interest leaves much to be desired.

The next scheduled burn is supposed to be on 18th November (according to the original mission plan) to raise the orbit (apogee) to about 200,000km. That would then be sufficient for the injection into a Trans-Mars trajectory with the scheduled sixth burn (actually seventh including the corrective burn 2 days ago). But the mission plan must have been revised. Yet ISRO has not released any information. I can understand their fear of putting out a plan and not being able to keep to it but they will one day realise that being up-front with the plan and its critical parts for an R & D program is by far the best way of keeping on top of communications. And in keeping messages on track.

In the meantime the ToI reports that:

After having successfully tackled a momentary glitch in Mangalyaan’s orbital manoeuvres on Monday, Isro scientists have postponed a crucial exercise. The exercise is to test the five instruments aboard the Mangalyaan before the orbiter embarks on its long journey to Mars in early December. The instruments were to be activated on Monday this week for a brief while to ensure that they work fine. But this procedure will now be carried out next week.

I have been trying to follow the mission via the live satellite tracking websites (satview.org and n2yo.com) but I am a little dubious as to how “live” they actually are. I noted that after the corrective burn 48 hours ago, both sites took almost 24 hours before they showed any change to the orbit.

Right now satview is showing a position over Africa at an altitude over 100,000 km but this data needs to be taken with a pinch or two of salt.

Live track Mars Orbiter satview.org

Live track Mars Orbiter satview.org

n2yo.com also shows the same position and gives the following data. Note that both sites give the same location and now also give much the same altitude. They do not match on “speed”. Satview gives a speed of about 4149km/h which is about 1.15km/s whereas n2yo gives a “speed” of 6.9 km/s. I am not quite sure what “speed” is being reported.

MARS ORBITER MISSION

LOCAL TIME:
12:13:56
UTC:
11:13:56
LATITUDE:
19.09
LONGITUDE:
-0.1
ALTITUDE [km]:
103132.47
ALTITUDE [mi]:
64083.55
SPEED [km/s]:
6.91
SPEED [mi/s]:
4.29
AZIMUTH:
204
SSW
ELEVATION:
+48.9
RA:
14h 45m 32s
DEC:
17° 1′ 12”
The satellite is in day light
PERIOD:  1434m

 

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A Gaggle of souls …..

November 14, 2013

An Angel came visiting last night.

He (I am sure it was a “he”) was clad in fiery red, deeply tanned and with long flowing hair. He was enormous and cut a very impressive figure, floating there at the foot of my bed. He seemed to be glowing all over but there was no specific halo around his head that I could see. I was more preoccupied with his expression which was rather supercilious and contemptuous – at having to waste his time on me, I suppose.

But I got over my astonishment faster than he got over his disgust. “Well,” I said, ” What can I do for you? I don’t make donations when I am in bed. And very rarely even when I am not. Cheap party tricks are not my thing and if you are meant to be ‘Christmas Past’, you are 6 weeks too early”.

His contempt was tinged with irritation. “Nay!”, he exclaimed in stern and ominous tones, “Accept thy Fate. I am come for thy soul”! His booming voice reverberated around my skull.

But I was not to be intimidated in my own bed and in no mood for any unearned reverence. Besides my head was throbbing and I was not pleased. “Aha,“ said I, “Then I do have a soul. I’ve never met him you see. Have you?”

He must have been expecting a little more shock and awe and a little less lip. “I am come for thy Immortal soul,” he repeated. “To mark it as Mine and to give thee Warning. As thou soweth, so shall thou reap!“

“You mean as I sow, so shall my soul reap,” I corrected him. “I suppose my transition must be due. You must be my travel guide. Do you have a brochure regarding my options? Or a web-site? Is there a basic package or can I acquire extras? Do I need to get dressed? I shouldn’t need my wallet, surely?”

He seemed just a little taken aback. Perhaps he was more senior than just a simple travel guide. “Dispute not!” he growled. “Thy time is not yet come. I am come to mark down thine soul as belonging to my Gaggle” he declaimed. You will understand that this was a transcendental conversation without conventional words. So my interpretation of “gaggle” could be slightly off. He could have meant “team” or “army” or “tribe”, but I think “gang” best captures the intention. Perhaps he meant “gaggle”. Was gaggle the collective noun for souls? I wondered. Yes, that sounded about right.

  • A Gaggle of souls.
  • A Flight of Angels.
  • A Congregation of Saints.
  • A Pantheon of Gods.

I wondered if I had the hierarchy correctly.

My Angel was not to be deterred. “Thy time will surely come,” he continued in his best Richard Burton-“Under Milk Wood”-like tone, “and when it comes thine soul is Mine. I have impressed my Mark upon thy soul and all shall know it. My every wish is thy command.”

I hadn’t felt a thing but my head was still throbbing. Still, I was remarkably composed. The news was portentous but was nothing really new. I had been brought up on these stories of souls and Angels and Saints during my school-days with the Jesuits. In fact, having my own personal Angel to call on me was rather gratifying and a status symbol, I thought. His Gaggle or any other Gaggle of souls wouldn’t much matter I reasoned. Just the fact that my visitor was an Angel with no visible forked tail or pointy Spock-like ears also portended well. I was, it seemed. destined to be with the good guys. What was critical though was what connection there was between me and my soul. And how did his Gaggle differ from other Gaggles? Was there a competition between Gaggles?  And how would a win be decided?

“Tell me more,“ I said in my best psychiatrist manner. “Where is my soul now? What do souls do? What do you want my soul to do? How many souls in a gaggle? And how many Gaggles are there? And how do you compete with the other Gaggles? How many innings? What are the rewards? Or the penalties? “ My questions poured out.

My Angel looked down at me from his great height with some disdain. “Souls are Immortal,” he intoned. “They have existed since the beginning of Time and always will. Thine will be under My command and at my Whim – when thy time comes. Souls don’t do anything. They are not required to do anything. They are above doing Anything. They just are. And they are not constrained by Space. They can Flit and Fly anywhere or everywhere – wherever they are. And they are Completely Immortal. Deathless. For Eternity. Till the Cows come home. Till the Fat lady sings. Till the end of Time.” He paused. He seemed unsure if he had capitalised all the appropriate words and whether he had got his point across. “My souls in My Gaggle are in a state of Eternal Grace and Perpetual Bliss – except when they are not. They are at one with the Cosmos. Forever.” He hesitated and then continued in a rush, “Or till they are returned to inhabit another  body corporeal and the Eternal Bicycle begins again, forever and forever till the end of Time.  Thy soul is tethered to your body and from thence shall it be freed – when thy time comes.”

I thought his command of language and meaning and the resultant communication were rather poor. “Let’s get this straight,” I said. “So my soul is separate from and a prisoner of my body and is not free?” I put on my skeptic face. “Moreover my body does not seem to be in communication with my soul. So why then should I care what happens to my captive, separate, immortal soul when I am gone and it has been set free, only to be made captive again?” I asked in my best Clarence Darrow imitation.

I was beginning to doubt if my Angel  really was an Angel.  He wasn’t very quick. He was getting confused and tried to drown me out with sound. “For as thou poor mortal livest shall thy immortal soul be bound into grace or damnation or bliss or misery, for all eternity or until it shall be bound again to a body corporeal of my choosing”, he thundered.

I saw my opening. “Aah! I understand. My life so far has led to my poor, captive soul being designated to be in your particular gaggle or gang or whatever. And to whatever level of grace and bliss that entails. Until you decide that my soul will be trapped in yet another body. And then it will no longer be my soul but someone else’s?  So my temporary, captive, immortal soul is just in transition within my poor mortal body. Right?” 

He was not amused. “Thou art being obtuse,” he tried to thunder but there was a shade of whinging creeping in now. “The manner of thine life shall decide whether thy soul shall suffer or be in bliss. Thy behaviour in this life shall decide which Angel thy soul shall serve and what the prospects of thine soul shall be. Thou and thine soul are One. Well, at least until thou perishes and thy soul then becomes One with someone else. As thou dost shall thine soul be rewarded – for all Eternity; or until it is held captive by another body corporeal.“

Now, this was getting to be too much. My soul was obviously not even exclusively my own. Just borrowed for a while. Actually for a very little while. And if my own Angel was reduced to reincarnation mumbo-jumbo then I was in for a bad time in his Gaggle. He would probably threaten next that my soul was destined to be bound to a cockroach. But how would that threaten me? “And with population increasing as it now is, it  shouldn’t be too long before my soul gets trapped in another body,” I said. 

I decided to wax poetic as well. “Why then should I care about this temporary, captive, unknown soul of mine? And of what significance your so-called immortality?” quoth I. “If there cometh an end to Time – and thus to Eternity – and my Soul ceaseth to exist, then how canneth it be immortal? Doth not my spirit – as I define it – already exist, and hath it not existed forever and from before the beginning of Time and shall it not continue forever and forever and beyond the end of Time? The puny soul thou seekest and which is merely eternal, cannot be my mighty spirit which stretches beyond the bounds of time.” I liked the sound of being beyond the bounds of time.

He seemed somewhat confused now so I continued in my best Gandalf imitation and inserted capitals wherever I could. “For such, from Before and Beyond Time, is the Concept and Substance of my Immortality. Your immortality, Angel, is merely eternal and bound by Time and decidedly inferior. Besides, being in eternal grace and perpetual bliss sounds rather boring. No big deal! And anyway my Time is not yet come. And maybe when it comes I will get a  different Angel and join a different Gaggle.” I felt rather pleased with myself. 

It was obvious that “grace” and “bliss” were the critical parameters for souls to experience and aspire to, with “eternal damnation” and “misery” being the other ends of those scales. What could the KPI’s be, I wondered, for grace and bliss? “What have I to do with my soul?”  I asked reasonably. “Or its level of grace or misery when my time has gone? And what is bliss for me may be misery for my soul. Or the other way around. And since my Time is not yet come this  mortal body shall decide and my soul will just have to lump it? You really shouldn’t talk to me,” I said. “Go talk to my soul.”

The Angel was now fuming. He was as red as his fiery cloak – did I mention that he wore a cloak. “How dare thee bandy words with thy Angel?” he whined, petulantly. “Know thee not of thy immortal peril? Instead of grace and bliss thy soul mayest be condemned to Eternal Damnation and Desperate Misery. There are no other Angels for thee but I.. I mean me .. I mean Us”.” He was beginning to bluster now. “Thou hast no choice but to be Ours. And to obey Our every command, to carry out whatever task We may set thee and to return to whatever corporal body We may designate. When thy time has come”.

Even with his capitals and the Royal plural, I was unimpressed. It seemed the oneness of my temporal body and my supposedly immortal soul was fundamentally suspect. Moreover even the immortality of souls seemed somewhat limited. Apparently, it only lasted as long as Time did. What happened before the Big Bang or would when Time ceased to exist was clearly beyond the Angel’s comprehension. It also seemed that the world of souls had many inherent injustices. They had not even established any fundamental Rights of Souls. Clearly Angels ranked higher than souls and could order them about. But what were the sanctions if a soul disobeyed? What recourse would a poor soul have? Was there a higher authority he could turn to, a Cosmic Court of Soul Rights? How did a soul get promoted to be an Angel? Were there different grades of Angels? How many Angels reported to a Saint? How did one get to be a Saint – apart from first being Pope? Were there no other tasks for ambitious souls – apart from grace and bliss?  Could souls be created and destroyed? Or was their number fixed? How did souls and bodies get matched? Did the bodies of animals and birds and insects – a la Buddhism – count? What was the universal all-souls unemployment rate?

The questions were multiplying. It was time to end this pointless dalliance with an Angel who was clearly, at best, only a beginner and, at worst, a fraud. . “Well I think you are just a fraud or a figment of my imagination,” I said, “and I am going to ignore you. In the worst case I demand and shall get a more experienced, more competent Angel, with a proper Gaggle. Whenever my time comes”.

I must have said just the right thing. There was a long “poof” as if of escaping air and the Angel seemed to deflate and diminish in size. His glow was fading. He got smaller and smaller and I had to sit up to see him disappearing into the floor at the foot of my bed.

“Clap your hands if you believe in Angels” he whimpered as he imploded into nothingness – and I woke up.

It must have been that fifth whiskey. 

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Afghan opium harvest reaches record high and Western troops prepare to withdraw – after a job well done?

November 13, 2013

This Afghan war started on 7th October 2001. Ostensibly the US, NATO and Western allies invaded to dismantle the Al Qaida infrastructure, remove the Taliban from power and to eradicate their support base by winning hearts and minds.

Twelve years on, about 10,000 Afghan security forces and about 5,000 allied forces (including contractors) have been killed. The numbers of Taliban and other Islamic fighters killed is believed to be many more than the 15,000 allied losses – perhaps as many as 30,000. Around 18,000 civilians have also lost their lives. The Taliban are still around and apparently gaining strength. I am not sure whether the intention was to destroy the drug trade or whether it was secretly to secure drug supplies. In any event the opium harvest has never been as high before.

History will have to tell us if this was a job well done or something else.

Reuters: Afghan opium crop hits record high ahead of Western withdrawal

Afghan opium cultivation has hit a record high as international forces prepare to leave the country, the United Nations said on Wednesday, with concern that profits will go to warlords jockeying for power ahead of a presidential election next year. The expansion of poppy to 209,000 hectares (516,000 acres), will embarrass Afghanistan’s aid donors after more than 10 years of efforts to wean farmers off the crop, fight corruption and cut links between drugs and the Taliban insurgency. …..

The area under poppy is 36 percent higher than in 2012, and eclipses the previous record set in 2007, when 193,000 hectares (477,000 acres) were cultivated, the U.N. anti-drugs agency said in a report. Total output is estimated at 5,500 tonnes of opium, up 49 percent from 3,700 tonnes in 2012. Farm-gate profits are expected to approach $1 billion, or 4 percent of gross domestic product. Some of those profits will be funneled off by the Taliban to fuel their insurgency. …… 

A kg of opium costs some $200 at the farm-gate. This produces about 100 g of pure heroin. The street price of heroin is about $170 per gram (2012 prices) for typically 40% pure heroin (75% is considered high). The $200 dollars for the 1 kg of opium is thus marked-up to about $40,000 as street-heroin. If the profits at the farm-gates are $1 billion, it can be expected that the profits on the streets from the processed drugs must be of the order of 50 – 100 times greater.

A steady profit stream of $50 – 100 billion per year clearly will – and does –  cause many to salivate.

The Spoils of War:

Each kg. of opium produces 100 grams of pure heroin. The US retail prices for heroin (with a low level of purity) is, according to UNODC of the order of $172 a gram. The price per gram of pure heroin is substantially higher.

The profits are largely reaped at the level of the international wholesale and retail markets of heroin as well as in the process of money laundering in Western banking institutions. 

The revenues derived from the global trade in heroin constitute a multibillion dollar bonanza for financial institutions and organized crime.

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By 2100, 8 million could be over 100 years old

November 13, 2013

The 2012 review of the UN’s World Population Prospects was released in August this year.

World Population Prospects 2012 (pdf – 3.53Mb)

Charts are still – presumably – being prepared since the interactive charts from the 2010 review are no longer available on the UN site and have not yet been replaced by new charts.

The basic picture is still of fertility rates decreasing steadily with the medium scenario giving a world population stabilising at about 10.8 billion around 2100. Chinese population is just about at its peak and will now be reducing till 2100. Indian population will reach its peak around 2060 and then start declining. African population will reach its peak only around 2100.

WPP12 Fertlity

WPP12 Fertlity

There is a massive amount of data and projections, and the interesting thing about demographic forecasts done on this scale is that the “inertia” is high. Consequently much of the “forecast” is inevitable and the key parameter is the fertility rate. In 1953, 99.9% of the world population exhibited a fertility rate greater than 2.1 children per woman (the static population replenishment rate). Now in 2013, 49% of the world’s population have a fertility rate lower than 2.1. Half the world’s population is already shrinking. By 2100 this will be 81% and the world population as a whole will be shrinking.

A significant proportion of those under ten years old today will still be around in 2100. Today about 20% of the world population is under 10 years old ( approximately 1,400 million). In 2100 around 8% of 10.8 billion will be over 80 years old. Assuming that say 3% are older than 87 years, it would mean that 320 million (or 23% of those under 10 or about 5% of everybody) living today will still be around in 2100. Today about 14% of the world’s population is over 60 and about 2% are over 80. By 2100, 35% will be over 60 and about 8% over 80 years old. The 950 million over 60 today will become 3,800 million by 2100.

More than 800 million people will be over 80 and I would estimate that around 1% of these  – or 8 million – could be over 100 years old!

Bloomberg (2012): Unicharm Corp.’s sales of adult diapers in Japan exceeded those for babies for the first time last year.

Just the demographics is changing the make up of the world and its genetic mix.

WPP12 population mix

WPP12 population mix

The human genetic pool in 2100 will be geographically placed 40% in Africa, 40% in Asia with the remaining 20% spread between The Americas, Oceania and Europe. And while there will be some migration and genetic mixing, this basic distribution will be maintained. Moreover, fertility rates will be stable and close to (even if just under) 2.1 in all regions. Median age is also on the way up world-wide.

WPP12 median age

WPP12 median age

Life expectancy is rising across the world:

The twentieth century witnessed the most rapid decline in mortality in human history. In 1950-1955, life expectancy at the world level was 47 years and it had reached 69 years by 2005-2010. Over the next 40 years, life expectancy at birth at the global level is expected to reach 76 years in 2045-2050 and 82 years in 2095-2100 (table III.1 and figure III.1). The more developed regions already had a high expectation of life in 1950-1955 (64.7 years) and have since experienced further gains in longevity. By 2005-2010 their life expectancy stood at 76.9 years, 10 years higher than in the less developed regions where the expectation of life at birth was 67.0 years. Although the gap between the two groups is expected to narrow between 2005 and mid-century, in 2045-2050 the more developed regions are still expected to have considerably higher life expectancy at birth than the less developed regions (82.8 years versus 74.8 years). Throughout 2010-2100, systematic progress against mortality is further expected to increase life expectancy at birth up to 88.9 years in the more developed regions and 80.8 years in the less developed regions thereby further reducing the gap in mortality between the two groups.

What occurs to me also is that famine, disease, war and the effects of natural catastrophes are becoming less and less relevant demographically. But I shall return to that subject in another post.

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UPDATE! Indian Mars orbiter supplementary firing successful

November 12, 2013

The supplementary burn made this morning to correct for the incompleteness of the 4th burn yesterday appears to have been successful. The objective was to reach an orbit (apogee) of 100,000 km and this seems to have been achieved with some margin to spare. The observed change is to an orbit with an apogee of 118,462 km. The next step on 18th November is to raise the apogee to just under 200,000 km and then insert the craft into the Trans-Mars trajectory on 1st December.

So far, so good and the success of the correction by the supplementary burn is both impressive and encouraging.

ISRO: 

  • Fourth supplementary orbit raising manoeuvre of Mars Orbiter Spacecraft, starting at 05:03:50 hrs(IST) on Nov 12, 2013, with a burn Time of 303.8 seconds has been successfully completed.The observed change in Apogee is from 78276km to 118642km.

The launch and subsequent orbit manoeuvre burns so far are summarised here:

  1. The Mars Orbiter Spacecraft, India’s first interplanetary spacecraft, was launched into an elliptical earth orbit with a perigee of 248.4 km and an apogee of 23,550 km, inclined at an angle of 19.27 deg to the equator by India’s Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle in its twenty fifth flight (PSLV-C25). The achieved orbit was very close to the intended one. The launch was conducted from Satish Dhawan Space Centre (SDSC) SHAR, Sriharikota on November 05, 2013. The launch of Mars Orbiter Spacecraft occurred as scheduled from the First Launch Pad at 2:38 pm IST after a fifty six and a half hour count down. 
  2. The first orbit-raising manoeuvre of India’s Mars Orbiter Spacecraft was performed at 01:17 hrs Indian Standard Time (IST) early this morning (November 07, 2013) when the 440 Newton Liquid Engine of the spacecraft was fired for 416 seconds by commanding it from Spacecraft Control Centre (SCC) at ISRO Telemetry, Tracking and Command Network (ISTRAC) at Peenya, Bangalore. With this engine firing, the spacecraft’s apogee (farthest point to Earth) has been raised to 28,825 km, while its perigee (nearest point to Earth) is at 252 km. 
  3. The second orbit raising manoeuvre of Mars Orbiter Spacecraft, starting at 02:18:51 hrs(IST) on Nov 08, 2013, with a burn time of 570.6 seconds has been successfully completed.The observed change in Apogee is from 28814 km to 40186 km.
  4. The third orbit raising manoeuvre of Mars Orbiter Spacecraft, starting at 02:10:43 hrs(IST) on Nov 09, 2013, with a burn time of 707 seconds has been successfully completed.The observed change in Apogee is from 40186km to 71636km.
  5. In the fourth orbit-raising operation conducted on Nov 11, 2013, the apogee (farthest point to Earth) of Mars Orbiter Spacecraft was raised from 71,623 km to 78,276 km by imparting an incremental velocity of 35 metres/second (as against 130 metres/second originally planned to raise apogee to about 100,000 [1 lakh] km). The spacecraft is in normal health. A supplementary orbit-raising operation is planned for November 12, 2013, at 0500 hrs IST to raise the apogee to nearly 1 lakh km. 
mangalyaan trajectory

mangalyaan trajectory: image ISRO

Related posts: 

Indian Mars orbiter’s fourth burn in earth orbit only partially succesful

India’s frugal Mars orbiter mission completes 3rd burn in earth orbit

Frugal engineering for India’s Mars mission

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Another Israeli assasination? Iranian deputy minister killed

November 11, 2013

It may be just my perception. But I don’t think it is so far-fetched that Israeli foreign policy in support of its perceived security interests is supremely pragmatic and uncluttered by any ethical concerns. In matters of security of the Israeli State, it seems that ethics is just not relevant. While most of their diplomatic efforts are often channeled through friendly nations (the US or France ..) it does not seem unlikely that they also have extensive covert activities as a back-up.

That Israel conducts targeted killings as an almost routine activity does not seem implausible and has led to much speculation. The alleged poisoning of Arafat (by radative polonium) has also been put down to Israeli agents. The possibility of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons and rendering their own relatively toothless is serious enough that systematically assassinating key figures in Iran’s nuclear programme would seem justified to Israel.

This particular killing is apparently of a relatively unimportant deputy minister — but who knows?

BBC: An unknown attacker has shot dead Iran’s deputy industry minister. Safdar Rahmatabadi was driving in Tehran’s Sabalan Square late on Sunday when he was shot once in the head and once in the chest, the state news agency IRNA reported. A police officer told the agency that the attacker appeared to have been inside Mr Rahmatabadi’s vehicle and spoke to him before opening fire. …..

Assassinations of officials are not unheard of in Iran, in particular scientists connected with the country’s nuclear programme. In January 2012 a car bomb killed university lecturer Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan, who also worked at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility. 

Earlier in November a public prosecutor and his driver were killed in the restive frontier province of Sistan Baluchistan, which borders Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, Mr Rahmatabadi, whose portfolio also included mining and commerce, was seen as a low-profile official. He served in a similar role under the country’s previous President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. 

The shooting comes as Iran, under newly-elected President Hassan Rouhani, engages in talks with six world powers on its nuclear programme. Tehran maintains it is enriching uranium for civilian uses but Western countries have long suspected Iran of a secret nuclear weapons programme.

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