Global warming “hockey stick” is turning into a baseball bat

June 29, 2013

(A fun comment at CA is particularly apposite!

Posted Jun 28, 2013 at 5:18 PM 

@Steve McIntyre

From Fig. 4 above:

it’s quite obvious that in 2009 and again in 2011, you shamelessly plagiarised Briffa 2013

Easily the worst sin in the academic book, run a close second only by disrupting the space-time continuum in order to perform the plagiarism)

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Steve McIntyre’s objections to the Yamal tree (“the most important tree in the world”) in the global warming hockey stick are being vindicated as the new version of the data series resembles a baseball bat much more than a hockey stick.

Full story at Climate Audit and at WUWT

yamal_chronology_compare-to-b13

Closure for Stapel perhaps but social psychology remains “on probation”

June 28, 2013

Another Chapter in the Diedrik Stapel saga comes to an end as he reaches a deal with prosecutors but the exposure of his behaviour has revealed much that is not so uncommon in the field of social psychology. Social psychologists now need to be on their best behaviour to dispell the notion that “fraud” and confirmation bias are their stock-in-trade. Social  Psychology remains on probation and must avoid any hint of misconduct if it is not to lose further ground as an academic discipline ( but it will be quite some time before this discipline becomes a science).

Associated Press (via The Republic): 

THE HAGUE, Netherlands — A disgraced Dutch social psychologist who admitted faking or manipulating data in dozens of publications has agreed to do 120 hours of community service work and forfeit welfare benefits equivalent to 18 months’ salary in exchange for not being prosecuted for fraud.

Prosecutors announced the deal Friday, calling it “a fitting conclusion” to a case of scientific fraud that sent shockwaves through Dutch academia.

Diederik Stapel who formerly worked at universities in the cities of Groningen and Tilburg, acknowledged the fraud in 2011 and issued a public apology last November, saying he had “failed as a scientist.”

He once claimed to have shown that the very act of thinking about eating meat makes people behave more selfishly.

Snowden and religious teachings

June 28, 2013

Security agencies must dread the fanatics and even those just religiously inclined.

I heard this quote from the Bible on radio today!

  1. Beware you of the leaven of the Pharisees, which is hypocrisy. 
  2. For there is nothing covered, that shall not be revealed; neither hid, that shall not be known. 
  3. Therefore whatever you have spoken in darkness shall be heard in the light; and that which you have spoken in the ear in closets shall be proclaimed on the housetops.

Luke 12: 1-3

For “Pharisees” read “the US Government and the UK Government”.

How very apt and it could be the anthem of the whistle-blowers. But it is probably of little comfort to them as they are universally and invariably denounced by the keepers of secrets.

Not that I think that Snowden is particularly religious.

Global cooling is killing off the birds and the bees

June 28, 2013

Humans have always looked to the birds and the bees for figuring out how to do it. But now we are doomed!

Whole populations of plants, bees, insects and even birds are already dying of cold. 

Those who deny that global cooling has set in and have their heads buried in the sand are still lost in the fantasy world of trying to “stop global warming” by cutting carbon dioxide emissions.  That horse has bolted and to make it worse they are trying to close the wrong stable door! In the meantime, the sun and the earth and the climate have moved on. Global warming is no longer fashionable. Global cooling is here – at least for the next 2 or 3 decades.

BBC: Winged insects including bees, moths and butterflies are suffering this year following the UK’s late, cold spring, a National Trust report has revealed.

The charity warns the drop in numbers of winged insects could lead to food shortages for birds and bats. The six-month review assessed the state of plants and animals in England, Wales and Northern Ireland and came up with a “winners and losers” list. 

Snowdrops, bluebells and daffodils are all on the winners’ list

Among the “losers”, butterflies have been “very scarce” this year, due to a combination of an unsettled spring and the last year’s extremely wet summer. Likewise, moth numbers have been driven down by cool, wet or windy nights over the past few months. Mason bees and mining bees also struggled to survive in poor weather in May, which may have a knock-on effect for plant pollination. “Insect populations have been really very low. Then when they have got going, they’ve been hit by a spell of cool, windy weather… so our environment is just not bouncing with butterflies or anything else,” said Mathew Oates, a naturalist at the National Trust, who worked on the report. …  

Birds on the “losers” list include martins, swifts, swallows and warblers, all of which rely on airborne insects to feed and may struggle to survive in the coming months.

Some seabird populations have been hard hit too. In March, windy weather along the coast of Scotland and northern England led to the apparent starvation of thousands of puffins along with guillemots, razorbills, kittiwakes and shags.

However, a number of animals and plants have enjoyed a more fruitful year, earning a place on the list of “winners” of the first half of 2013. Snowdrops and daffodils had “amazingly long flowering seasons”, according to the charity, with daffodils flowering well into May and snowdrops appearing from January through to mid-April. ….

But the UK Government has been moved to urgent action. They have decided that the bee decline is not due to pesticides – which leaves only global cooling which can be blamed. The government has called an urgent  “bee summit to “carry out an “urgent and comprehensive” review of the decline of bees. The majority of the participants will not have any experience of keeping bees!

The bees themselves are not invited:

BBC again: The government is to announce it will carry out an “urgent and comprehensive” review of the decline of bees.

Minister Lord de Mauley will tell a bee summit, organised by Friends of the Earth, that the review will lead to a “national pollinator strategy”.

There is great concern across Europe about the collapse of bee populations and the European Commission wants to ban pesticides linked to bee deaths.

But the UK has opposed the move, saying that the science is inconclusive.

 

Herrings galore in l’affaire Snowden

June 27, 2013

Some level of state surveillance is no doubt necessary though it has probably gone too far in the US. To have blanket eavesdropping and entrapment and agents provocateur is not so unlike the Stasi or the KGB. I am not too concerned if the NSA has been reading my emails – much good it may do them! I have no strong opinions as to whether Snowden is a hero or a villain but I would be more than a little surprised if he has been sitting quietly in the transit lounge of Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport for the last 3 days.

I am pretty sure that all the reports coming out about his possible movements or non-movements are largely disinformation. I am very suspicious when Foreign Ministers and Heads of State make statements about his whereabouts or where he is not. I suspect that technically none of them have lied outright – but I am fairly certain that  they know much more than they are letting on. The lone individual bravely evading the far-flung resources of the most powerful nation in the world is the stuff of Baroness Orczy and of urban legends to come.

So my guesses as to where he might be are:

  1. He is being debriefed by Russia. It would be child’s play for the Russians to have whisked him into a private and  “safe part” of the transit area and to return him to the public area after a suitable period. I see no reason for the official Russian line to have been jeopardised since he would not technically have gone through immigration control. When Ecuador says they need time to consider his asylum request, I wonder if it is the Russians who need time to debrief him – willingly or unwillingly.
  2. He is in the transit area of another Russian airport and to get to St. Petersburg’s Pulkovo airport – for example – would have been easy for the Russians to arrange.
  3. The trip to Havana was just for disinformation and he actually flew to Hanoi and is now hidden within the entourage surrounding Ecuador’s Foreign Minister, Ricardo Patino.
  4. He has already reached and is holed up in Havana (and the Cubans therefore are not saying anything), or
  5. He is in the transit area of a country friendly to Russia (Belarus, Ukraine, Kazakhstan….)

With the heavy US presence in Reykjavik, it is unlikely that Iceland was ever a serious destination.

Given the resources that the US and the world’s media must be bringing to bear to find him, it can only be a matter of time …

We seek him here, we seek him there,
Those Yankies seek him everywhere.

But the US establishment has some egg on its face. John Kerry’s blustering against China and Russia and now threats of a trade war against Ecuador come across as heavy-handed and hypocritical. It is only Snowden who gains and Obama and Kerry who lose in the PR stakes for every day that he continues to remain undiscovered.

UK shale gas deposits could be 10 times greater than thought

June 27, 2013

Reality bites!

The rush to fracking and shale gas goes on. There is no country which is not going to exploit the potential of much cheaper electricity generation and subsequent growth and job creation (and note that even Obama’s nonsense attack on carbon dioxide to placate the global warming fanatics takes great care to avoid any attack on shale gas). Shale gas recovery – unlike some other technologies – will not need any subsidies.

Now the British Geological Survey has reported that the UK shale gas deposits are huge and much, much larger than originally thought and “peak gas” has disappeared over the horizon.

BBC: 

UK shale gas resources may be far greater than previously thought, a report for the government says.

The British Geological Survey was asked to estimate how much gas is trapped in rocks beneath Lancashire and Yorkshire.

It said there could be 1,300 trillion cubic feet at one site alone, but it is unclear how much could be extracted.

Ministers are set to announce financial benefits for communities where fracking – the controversial extraction technique – takes place.

BBC industry correspondent John Moylan says the government is also likely to announce plans for tax incentives to encourage investment in shale gas, and a streamlining of the process to award drilling permits.

He describes the BGS survey as potentially a “landmark” moment.

The exploitation of shale gas and oil revolutionised the energy industry in the US, although there are questions over whether the same thing can be repeated in the UK. … 

Breaking! Julia Gillard retires to her knitting

June 26, 2013

Well, the election whenever it comes might now be a little more interesting. But Abbott is almost nondescript and Rudd is a more blatant “promise breaker” than even Julia Gillard. It will be fascinating to see how the Australian electorate make their choice of the “least worst” option!

(But I wonder whether it is an inherent disadvantage of “party politics” which constrains choices such that electorates continue to have to choose from among scandal-tainted or otherwise unsavoury individuals – as in Italy for example.)

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Update 57 Rudd – 45 Gillard

Gillard the back stabber guillotined by a Kevin Rudd returning from his grave!

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Looks like Kevin Rudd – who not so long ago – stated that he could see no circumstances in which he would lead the Labour Party has managed – finally – to get his revenge and oust Julia Gillard.

The knitting story seems prophetic now.

Julia Gillard Women's Weekly

View of the US after Snowden

June 26, 2013

The Snowden affaire allows many to now point fingers at the apparent hypocrisy of the US supporting civil rights in other countries but not at home.

This from the China Daily of 13th June by Luo Jie:

China_statue_of_liberty_cartoon

Climate model results depend upon which computer they run on!

June 26, 2013

Robust models indeed.

Washington Post:

New Weather Service supercomputer faces chaos

The National Weather Service is currently in the process of transitioning its primary computer model, the Global Forecast System (GFS), from an old supercomputer to a brand new one.  However, before the switch can be approved, the GFS model on the new computer must generate forecasts indistinguishable from the forecasts on the old one.

One expects that ought not to be a problem, and to the best of my 30+ years of personal experience at the NWS, it has not been.  But now, chaos has unexpectedly become a factor and differences have emerged in forecasts produced by the identical computer model but run on different computers.

This experience closely parallels Ed Lorenz’s experiments in the 1960s, which led serendipitously to development of chaos theory (aka “butterfly effect). What Lorenz found – to his complete surprise – was that forecasts run with identically the same (simplistic) weather forecast model diverged from one another as forecast length increased solely due to even minute differences inadvertently introduced into the starting analyses (“initial conditions”). ..

……

Carbon dioxide idiocy – perhaps the EPA should make flatulence punishable

June 26, 2013

Reading Obama’s “Climate Plan” almost  drives me to despair at the idiocy of man!

Obama climate action plan

exhaust gas compositions

 

But only almost.

We have always had idiots and even evolution will not eliminate idiocy. And because like most “policy” statements from whoever is President of the United States, it is 90% rhetoric and 10% substance. He has enough weasel words in there to approve the Keystone XL Pipeline and he will not stop the burning of shale gas or the production of shale oil or the export of coal!! He will continue wasting money on nonsense and subsidising useless things which will prolong the lunacy for a little while.

Every living thing converts carbon to carbon dioxide  – the new pollutant. And the argument that it is a matter of scale does not hold. But perhaps we and all our animals can wear Carbon Sequestration masks? And maybe Obama could make flatulence punishable?

The oceans determine the carbon dioxide concentration and not man. I suppose that it will only be when the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere begins to fall – as it will within 2 decades  – that the lunacy might begin to end.