Japanese astronomers also see a Maunder-like solar minimum coming

April 21, 2012

We have been seeing signs that a new solar minimum is probably established and that we are in for a decade or two or three of global cooling. Whether this minimum will be as deep as the Maunder Minimum (1645 – 1715) or more like the Dalton Minimum (1790 – 1830) remains to be seen. Of course we will not know whether we are truly in a Solar Minimum until we are half-way through it. It has been proposed that this new minimum be named after Theodor Landscheidt who predicted this in 1989.

Now Japanese astronomers are also predicting a solar minimum similar to the Dalton Minimum and a period of global cooling. However results from the solar  observation satellite Hinode also suggest that an unusual configuration of the sun’s magnetic poles may also be on its way.

Asahi Shimbun.

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Fawcett charged with animal cruelty after mass slaughter of huskies

April 21, 2012

Back in February last year the story of the massacre of up to 100 huskies in British Columbia came to light. Apparently the dogs which had been used for taking tourists on sled rides had been killed by Robert Fawcett because the number of tourists had reduced drastically after the 2010 Winter Olympics. Fifty-six dogs were dug up in a mass grave near Whistler after information leaked out in January 2011 that Fawcett had been getting workers compensation for “post traumatic stress” following his killing of the dogs. Now 14 months after the massacre  The BBC reports that the dog-killer has finally been charged with animal cruelty.

A man who admitted killing more than 50 dogs in the western Canadian province of British Columbia has been charged with animal cruelty. Robert Fawcett ran a company offering dog-sled tours but its business slumped after the 2010 Winter Olympics.

He killed the huskies by shooting them or slitting their throats.

British Columbia’s criminal justice branch said that Mr Fawcett – who ran Howling Dog Tours – faces one count of “causing unnecessary pain and suffering” to dozens of sled dogs in April 2010. He is due to appear in court next month.

The killings became public after Mr Fawcett won a compensation award for post-traumatic stress as a result of the killings. ..


Two years after BP oil spill, natural recovery is much greater than expected

April 21, 2012

Immediately after this accident it was being touted as the greatest environmental catastrophe of all time. The hyperbole is of course necessary to generate headlines and the “alarmist brigade” who believe that humanity is the worst thing that has ever happened to the earth are quick to pile on the exaggerations. But the earth is rather more resilient than they would like us to believe.

NewsWise reports:

This Friday, April 20, will mark two years since the explosion aboard the Deepwater Horizon oil rig caused vast quantities of crude oil to flow into the Gulf of Mexico.

But despite the size of the spill, “the natural recovery is far greater than what anybody hoped when it happened,” said James Morris, a professor of biology at the University of South Carolina. “The fears of most people – that there would be a catastrophic collapse of the ecosystem in the Gulf – never materialized.” …….

He’s been impressed with the recovery of the area’s ecology.

“The fisheries have come back like gangbusters,” he said. “One of the interesting findings was that after the oil spill, bait fish populations collapsed, and predator populations boomed. The reason was that there was no fishing pressure on the top predators because people stopped fishing after the spill. So the predator fish populations rebounded, and they grazed down their prey.”

“The marshes that I saw actually looked very good,” he added. “And I was taken to the worst by officials who wanted to impress us that the damage was really significant, and that you could still find oil in the marshes. And you can still find oil in the marshes, but the greatest damage to the place where they took us was from the trampling by the reporters, scientists, and agency people tromping around out there looking for damage.”

“There’s some evidence that perhaps there are some lingering problems, but it’s not entirely clear,” Morris said. “For example, there’s ambiguity about whether there’s been an effect on species like dolphins. Some people will remain forever convinced that dolphins are washing up because of this spill, but in a recent report that NOAA just released, the dolphin mortality was unexplainably high leading up to the spill. So before the spill, the dolphin mortality was higher than normal, and it’s been higher than normal since the spill.”

But “alarmism” is based on making predictions of catastrophes to come which will never be put to the test during the lifetime of the forecasters.

Video: India test fires Agni-V ICBM rocket – “Vehicle state is normal”

April 19, 2012

India test fired its Agni-V ICBM today. Initial reports are of a successful launch though details of the 20 minute flight will take some time to be analysed.

The Hindu: India demonstrated its Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) capability on Thursday by successfully launching its most powerful and longest range missile, Agni-V, from the Wheeler Island off the Odisha coast.

The 17-metre-long surface-to-surface ballistic missile lifted off majestically from a rail mobile launcher at 8.04 a.m. After a flight time of 20 minutes, the missile re-entry vehicle impacted the pre-designated target point more than 5,000 kms away in the Indian Ocean with a high degree of accuracy.

Video of the launch ( from two different cameras) has already been posted on You-Tube. I can imagine that the most beautiful words for all those involved was the calm repetition of  the phrase “Vehicle state is normal”.

Director of Max Planck Institute admits that climate models are “inconsistent with observations”

April 18, 2012

Climate models – at best – are gross over-simplifications of the chaotic layer of atmosphere around the earth in which climate and weather manifest themselves. Solar effects, the effects of clouds, of volcanoes, of aerosols, of sulphur compounds, of ocean currents and of the winds can only be crudely modelled. There is no evidence that man-made carbon dioxide has any significant impact on weather or climate. No one really knows when and how ice ages come and go. The models use fudge factors galore and each only represents the imperfect understanding, the prejudices and the biases of the modeller. And yet IPCC and governments have got so caught up in their own smug rhetoric about the science being “settled” that they prefer to believe the model results even when they are “inconsistent with reality”.

P Gosselin reports on a new article by Michael Odenwald in the  magazine “Focus” (in German).

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Mathematics mayhem – paper proving the impossible to be possible retracted for lack of “scientific content”

April 17, 2012

This is hilarious but it does make the Dr.Mahalingam College of Engineering & Technology, Pollachi, Tamil Nadu look ridiculous.  This paper was accepted for publication by Elsevier and has now been retracted by the publishers for not containing any scientific content. It seems that the authors have applied a computer program to a “problematic problem” and have proved a 4 300 year old “impossible proposition to be possible” !

“Computer application in mathematics” [Comput. Math. Appl. 59 (1) (2009) 296–297], by M. Sivasubramanian and S. Kalimuthu, Department of Mathematics, Dr. Mahalingam College of Engineering and Technology, Pollachi, Tamilnadu-642003, India

The paper is here : Sivasubramanian and Kalimuthu

But while the paper itself is remarkably short and is just a nonsense paper, it does not say very much for Elsevier’s editorial acumen or for its peer-review process. Perhaps this journal should be retracted for lack of editorial content? Timothy Gowers will surely get more support for his Elsevier boycott in the UK.

Retraction Watch has the full story:

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Settled science? Karakoram glaciers, polar bear and emperor penguin numbers are all growing – not disappearing

April 16, 2012

A settled science? Global warming was going to melt all the Himalayan glaciers by 2035, polar bears were going to be exterminated and emperor penguins populations were going to be devastated. But the climate models are proving to be just the wishful thinking of an alarmist creed.

1. The Guardian: The glaciers flowing between the towering peaks of the Karakoram range on the Pakistan-China border have grown in size in the last decade, according to new research. The impact of climate change on the ice in the greater Himalaya range has been controversial because of an unfounded claim by the United Nations’ climate science panel over the rate of melting in the region. However the melting of vast volumes of ice into the sea in most other parts of the world has been clearly demonstrated. In March, scientists showed that far less ice was being lost across the Himalayas than had been estimated from sparse ground surveys on the remote slopes.

The new study shows that glaciers in one important part of the mountain range are growing. “We provide a detailed glacier-scale evaluation of mass changes in the central Karakoram,” said Julie Gardelle, at CNRS-Université Grenoble, who led the research published in Nature Geoscience on Sunday. …

2. Polar bear populations have never been as large as they are now.

3. Emperor penguin populations are twice the size they were once thought to be.

It is time for the climate brigade and their hangers-on to develop a little humility and acknowledge that the chaotic, turbulent layer around the earth which creates our climate is far from being understood.

Time to ditch some of the models.

Professor at IIM-A resigns

April 14, 2012

Update 2014! See new post 

Update!

There are many comments in support of Prof. Dass  and some in support of Sujoy Pal. But many are rather nasty and merely personal attacks against the one or the other. I have left the last comment with one of Prof. Dass’ students which is rather more compelling than the personal attacks.

But if the allegations against Prof. Dass are largely malicious then it is a great pity that

  1. he resigned, and
  2. that IIM-A has not backed him up and declined to accept his resignation.

IIM-A does not come out of this very well. My tentative conclusion to all this is that IIM-A is still developing its own internal processes and does not really know – yet –  how to handle matters of alleged plagiarism.

There are some parallels with development of internal processes in industry to deal with corruption over the last 15-20 years. Here the mistake made by industry – in my opinion – was to focus on compliance rather than on ethics. A focus therefore on detection and punishment rather than on prevention. There is a risk that Indian Universities are going down the same path with a focus on plagiarism detection rather than on ethics. While the act of “policing” cannot be avoided by organisations the mere mechanical use of software to detect plagiarism is not enough. My own experience is that if ethics can be sound then compliance (or plagiarism) largely become non-issues. The challenge is  how to institutionalise the development of sound ethics in any organisation.

Comments on this subject are now closed.

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Professor Rajanish Dass at the Indian Institute of Management in Ahmedabad had blamed his co-author, Sujoy Pal (a research associate) for the plagiarism he was found guilty of. Dass has claimed that it was due to “ignorance and not intention” and had taken his case to the Gujarat High Court which had given him a small measure of relief when it had instructed the Institute to take some of his additional responses into account.

But he has now bowed to the inevitable and resigned.

Faculty of Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad (IIM-A), Rajanish Dass, who had approached the high court after the institute accused him of plagiarism, has chosen to resign from his post at the institute. 

Confirming the resignation, dean of academic affairs at IIM-A, B H Jajoo said, “He left on April 2.”  ……. In its report to IIM-A director Samir Barua on February 3, the committee concluded that allegations against Dass were “valid” and he has resorted to plagiarism in three papers. Confirming his resignation, Dass said, “I submitted my resignation due to health issues on April 2, which was accepted by IIM-A on the same day.” 

Dass has been on medical leave from the institute since the time he had approached HC (the High Court).

Considering that he had resigned 12 days ago and in a rather high profile case, it is a little surprising that the Institute did not have the courage to come out with the news of his resignation immediately. It suggests that they have not yet seen the advantages of transparency and that some are perhaps still hoping that the plagiarism issues cropping up at IIM-A will merely go away.

Some students at IIM-A have also accused Dass  – anonymously – of having outsourced his own thesis to students at Jadavpur University.

Another dent in anti-nuclear paranoia as wildlife thrives after Chernobyl

April 13, 2012

Even with the advent of shale gas, the capital cost of nuclear power plants means that they remain the most economic, viable and safe option for large-scale, base-load power generation for the foreseeable future. And part of the unnecessary time (and cost) associated with building nuclear power plants is primarily due to the obstructionist and delaying tactics of the alarmist lobbies.

A new research paper finds that some of the alarmist scenarios after the Chernobyl accident have been grossly exaggerated. In all likelihood the same strident alarmism evident after Fukushima is also highly exaggerated.

J. T. Smith, N. J. Willey, J. T. Hancock. Low dose ionizing radiation produces too few reactive oxygen species to directly affect antioxidant concentrations in cellsBiology Letters, 2012; DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2012.0150

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What makes a “good” manager?

April 12, 2012

Much of my work these days is in helping organisations in the selection of their managers. This has developed into a series of  talks and “workshops” for those involved – or to be involved – in the selection and recruitment or promotion of managers.

The objective is of course to appoint managers who will be successful (however success is to be defined). But that “success” lies in the future and will only ever be measured in retrospect. While defining what would constitute “success” is vital, it is my contention that the selection process has to focus on the “goodness” of the manager.

I take “goodness” to be an inherent attribute of a manager whereas “success” is a value-judgement of what has been achieved – but only and always in retrospect. “Successful” cannot and should not therefore be equated with or substituted for “good”.

Success is transient. Just like profit or cash-flow – it is over once it has been recognised. The success counter is set to zero once the success is “booked”.  Goodness lasts longer – it is like a balance sheet item. This financial analogy is sound. A success once booked – like profit or cash – gets transferred to the goodness in the balance sheet. It is available as a balance sheet item for future results but does not – in itself – ensure such future results. Past successes like previous profits provide a track record and an indication of things to come but do not, in themselves, ensure future success or profit. And just as a lack of profit or a shortage of cash can impair a balance sheet, a lack of success can impair a manager’s goodness.

Success and goodness are different.

The likelihood of a manager with a proven track record of success being a “good” manager is high. There is also no doubt that the probability of a “good” manager achieving the best result possible is high. From this it follows that the chance of achieving success is enhanced with a “good” manager. Success though does not just require goodness. And goodness does not ensure success. But goodness does predicate achieving the best result possible. In other words, if the goodness is inherent then the track record may follow. To continue with the financial analogy, if the balance sheet is sound then the probability that profits and cash may follow is enhanced.

Therefore it seems to me to be a much more grounded approach to focus on the goodness of a prospective manager rather than on just his track record of past successes or on trying to make a forecast of his future success.

I define nine fundamental “building blocks” which together as a package indicate the potential “goodness” of a prospective manager: Read the rest of this entry »