August 29, 2011
A welcome paper after last weeks nonsense where a new “scientific field” was created to study the effects of climate on human conflict. This paper claimed – by playing rather silly numbers games – that conflict was linked to the El Niño cycles. “What passes for science: Mindless number games show El Niño correlates with civil war!“ Correlations do not necessarily indicate causality. It is not difficult to find correlations between entirely unrelated parameters. The El Niño – civil war correlation fulfils all the requirements of a pseudoscience.
The “Climate Wars” pseudoscience is clearly shown up by Dr. Bruno Tertrais in a new paper in The Washington Quarterly • 34:3 pp. 1729, The Climate Wars Myth, DOI: 10.1080/0163660X.2011.587951.
He writes:
The first decade of the 21st century was the hottest since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution….. Think tanks have enthusiastically embraced this new field of research, and militaries around the world are now actively studying the possible impact of a warming planet on global security. Books with titles such as Climate Wars predict a bleak future.
A well-known French consultant claims that a five degree Celsius increase in average global temperature would generate no less than a ‘‘bloodbath.’’ Former World Bank economist Lord Nicholas Stern the author of the 2006 ‘‘Stern Report’’ on the possible economic impact of climate change even declares that failing to deal with climate change decisively would lead to ‘‘an extended world war.’’
However, there is every reason to be more than circumspect regarding such dire predictions. History shows that ‘‘warm’’ periods are more peaceful than ‘‘cold’’ ones. In the modern era, the evolution of the climate is not an essential factor to explain collective violence. Nothing indicates that ‘‘water wars’’ or floods of ‘‘climate refugees’’ are on the horizon. And to claim that climate change may have an impact on security is to state the obviousbut it does not make it meaningful for defense planning.
… if there was any significant link between warfare and warming, the number of conflicts should have been rising in the past two decades. It has not quite the contrary. Since the end of the Cold War, the total number of wars, after having steadily increased since 1945, has diminished. Statistics published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which come from work done at the Uppsala University, clearly show such a decrease.
Some of the most catastrophic scenarios of climate change-induced conflict just do not stand up to scrutiny. …
He concludes:
There are indeed, it seems, some causal links between climate and warfare. But they are of a seasonal nature: ‘‘nations address seasonal climate change in terms of where they fight, rather than through when or whether disputes occur. . . . Fighting moves to higher latitudes in the summer, and lower latitudes during the cooler months of the year.’’
The stakes of climate change are important and that is why this area should not be the object of intellectual fantasies or fashions. It is appropriate for defense and security planners to monitor the evolution of the scientific and political debate on its possible consequences. But there is no objective reason today to list climate change as a key issue for defense and security planning.
Read the whole paper
Tags: Bruno Tertrais, climate, climate change, climate change and war, Climate wars myth, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, global warming, pseudoscience, stern report
Posted in Alarmism, Climate, Non-Science | Comments Off on The pseudoscience of climate wars: climate does not control human violence
August 29, 2011
The much-hyped Hurricane Irene fizzled to a tropical storm and failed to deliver the massive devastation that the media was hoping for.
The wall-to-wall coverage of the expected destruction has now left the media desperately trying to show that apocalypse was only narrowly averted. But they cannot hide their terrible disappointment. Politicians are implying that “crying wolf” was not only the right thing to do but might actually have dampened the storm. Millions lost electricity as areas were shut down as a precaution against flooded sub-stations. But the 20 – 30 foot storm surges expected only managed to reach some 2 or 3 feet.
But water and gas and batteries and candles all sold very well.
The muted headlines on the day after cannot hide the disappointment –
Telegraph – Perfect Storm of Hype: US politicians, the media and the Hurricane Irene apocalypse that never was
New York Times – ‘Some Hurricane,’ New Yorkers Grumble as Danger Passes
Boston Globe – Tired Irene slaps N.E.
Washington Post – Hurricane Irene was not the powerhouse most expected
According to my son – “Well it was windy and quite wet”. Oh well!
Tags: Hurricane Irene, media, media alarmism, New Jersey, New York, tropical storm
Posted in Alarmism, Media, US, Weather | Comments Off on “The Irene show” bombs – media disappointment high
August 28, 2011
It seems that a Petrobras geologist – Dr. Jorge Figueiredo – does not like all the attention that Hamza and Pimental are getting. He may well have a point but there seems to be a touch of “sour grapes” about his carping. The data was Petrobras data available to their own geologists after all. Perhaps if the river had been named after him Dr. Figueiredo would not be quite so petulant.
If the flow is regular and serves to drain the Amazon then I think it can be called a river even if it is only a tiny seepage through the pores in rocks. The key is that the flow should be regular. Continuity of flow or the velocity of flow cannot be the arbiter. Even surface rivers can be seasonal and discontinuous, can completely dry up at times but they all regularly return from the same source to the same sink.
BBC:
…. Valiya Hamza and Elizabeth Tavares Pimentel, from the Brazilian National Observatory, deduced the existence of the “river” by using temperature data from boreholes across the Amazon region. The holes were dug by the Brazilian oil company Petrobras in the search for new oil and gas fields, and Petrobras has since released its data to the scientific community.
Using mathematical models relating temperature differences to water movement, the scientists inferred that water must be moving downwards through the ground around the holes, and then flowing horizontally at a depth of several km.
They concluded that this movement had to be from West to East, mimicking the mighty Amazon itself. A true underground river on this scale – 6,000km (4,000 miles) long – would be the longest of its kind in the world by far. But Professor Hamza told BBC News that it was not a river in the conventional sense. “We have used the term ‘river’ in a more generic sense than the popular notion,” he said.
In the Amazon, he said, water was transported by three kinds of “river” – the Amazon itself, as water vapour in atmospheric circulation, and as moving groundwater. “According to the lithologic sequences representative of Amazon [underground sedimentary] basins, the medium is permeable and the flow is through pores… we assume that the medium has enough permeability to allow for significant subsurface flows.”
The total calculated volume of the flow – about 4,000 cubic metres per second – is significant, although just a few percent of the amount of water transported by the Amazon proper. The underground flow could be confirmed with coastal measurements, scientists suggest. But the speed of movement is even slower than glaciers usually display, never mind rivers.
And whether water really is transported right across the region in this way is disputed by Jorge Figueiredo, a geologist with Petrobras. “First of all, the word ‘river’ should be burned from the work – it’s not a river whatsoever,” he told BBC News.
Water and other fluids could indeed flow through the porous sedimentary rock, he said, but would be unlikely to reach the Atlantic Ocean because the sedimentary basins containing the porous rock were separated by older rock deposits that would form an impermeable barrier. “But the main problem is that at depths of 4,000m, there is no possibility that we have fresh water – we have direct data that this water is saline,” said Dr Figueiredo. “My colleagues and I think this work is very arguable – we have a high level of criticism.” …
The research – Indications of an Underground “River” beneath the Amazon River: Inferences from Results of Geothermal Studies – was presented at the 12th International Congress of the Brazilian Geophysical Society in Rio de Janeiro, and has not been published in a peer-reviewed scientific journal.
The team has named the underground flow the “Hamza River”.
Tags: Amazon river, Elizabeth Tavares Pimentel, Hamza river, Jorge Figueiredo, Petrobras, Subterranean river, Valiya Hamza
Posted in Behaviour, Brazil, Geosciences, Natural Phenomena, Science | Comments Off on Hamza subterranean “river” criticised by Petrobras geologist – a case of “sour grapes”?
August 28, 2011
That it was a storm and caused some damage – as storms are wont to do – seems clear.
But was all the fuss really justified? Emergencies declared, mass evacuations, whole cities shut down!!
Perhaps I am missing something but the reports of wind speeds for New York city that are forecast here are stormy but they do not seem all that remarkable (perhaps upto about 80km/h (50 mph) for an hour or two.
New York City forecast Sunday
| Hourly Forecast |
6AM |
12 Noon |
6PM |
12 Midnight |
| Temp. | Dew Point |
22 | 21 |
22 | 20 |
22 | 15 |
18 | 12 |
| Wind |
73 km/h East |
78 km/h North |
44 km/h WNW |
27 km/h West |
| Humidity |
94% |
88% |
65% |
70% |
| Chance of Precip. |
100% |
100% |
100% |
10% |
| Cloud Cover |
100% |
100% |
85% |
35% |
| Conditions |
Thunderstorm |
Thunderstorm |
Chance of Rain |
Partly Cloudy |
| Sunrise & Sunset |
|
New York seems to have faced (or is facing) a severe tropical storm — but this is no hurricane.
The New York Times story goes over the top. Maybe this is the precautionary principle at work but it seems like alarmism to me and the so-called “fury” seems to have been somewhat muted!!
Tags: Alarmism, Hurricane Irene, hurricane Irene loses its fury, New York City, tropical storm
Posted in Alarmism, Natural Phenomena, Weather | 1 Comment »
August 28, 2011
This an arbitrary listing / ranking of examples of academic dishonesty at US colleges and secondary schools put together by Online Colleges. I am sure there are many other candidates for the list but I have no doubt that it is only by exposing such cases that change can occur. The internet provides an unprecedented medium for the exposure of cases which would otherwise be swept under carpets and never get any attention. The cases of plagiarism being revealed in Germany is a case in point.
The downside of the internet is, of course, that mere allegations may be taken as being confirmed fact and that it also allows personal feuds and partisan opinions to be presented without much rigorous scrutiny.
11 Most Egregious Examples of Academic Dishonesty
Academic dishonesty is a serious concern on college campuses and secondary schools around the U.S., as it seriously undermines the entire purpose of education. Not only does it reflect poorly on students, but the institutions to which they are enrolled as well. While cheating and lying in the classroom is nothing new, in recent years the lengths to which many college kids (and their teachers) are willing to go has shocked and surprised many. This often leads to a call for stricter penalties levied on those violating academic honor codes.
No matter where you stand on cheating or how you feel it should be combated in a school setting, there is no doubt that these cases we’ve collected here are some of the most outrageous examples in recent history. We’d like to hope these eventually mark a turning point in student behavior, but as education becomes even more competitive and expensive, cheating isn’t likely to stop anytime soon.
Tags: Academic Dishonesty, Colleges and Universities, Education, High school, United States
Posted in Education, Ethics | Comments Off on “Top 11 examples” of US academic dishonesty
August 27, 2011
Jatinder Ahluwalia’s career of scientific misconduct has cut a swathe through academia over the last 15 years but is now approaching its end-game as Imperial College reviews the award of his PhD.
At Cambridge University he lost his studentship funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council at the end of 1997, and was dismissed from the graduate studies program in 1998. He then went on to “earn” his PhD at Imperial College after which he was employed at University College London. An investigation at UCL found that not only had he faked experimental results but also that he had sabotaged the experiments of some of his colleagues. He resigned or was dismissed by UCL in 2009 but then turned up as a senior lecturer at the University of East London. As retractions of his papers and allegations by co-workers mounted, UEL also investigated and Imperial College started checking the experiments which had led to the award of his PhD. Earlier this year he “left” UEL. Retraction Watch has documented the entire, sorry story.
This week another paper of his was retracted and Imperial College announced that the results on which his PhD were based could not be replicated. Imperial will now set up a committee to review the award of his doctorate.
The academics asked to independently re-run the experiments were unable to replicate the findings published in the paper Activation of capsaicin-sensitive primary sensory neurones induces anandamide production and release and so the authors decided to withdraw this from the Journal of Neurochemistry. The findings also formed the basis of Dr Ahluwalia’s PhD. The College has therefore written to Dr Ahluwalia to notify him that it believes it has grounds to investigate the validity of the data in his PhD. It will be convening a panel to review the award in accordance with its policy for investigating allegations of research misconduct.
I find it an incredible waste that in so many cases of scientific misconduct there is such a great deal of misplaced creativity and ingenuity – and even hard work – which goes into the misconduct and in then covering it up.
Tags: Cambridge University, Imperial College London, Jatinder Ahluwalia, Retraction Watch, Scientific misconduct, University College London, University of East London
Posted in Science, scientific misconduct | 2 Comments »
August 26, 2011
When plagiarism is not plagiarism
The Vice-Chancellor of the University of Peshawar, Dr Azmat Hayat Khan was found guilty of plagiarism by a three-member committee of the Higher Education Commission that was constituted to probe the matter. The Higher Education Commission had submitted its report to the Governor of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa who is also the Chancellor of the university.
For apparently political reasons, no action has so far been taken against the Vice Chancellor. Instead the University went on the attack. First they attacked the complainant, Mohammad Zubair, an assistant professor at the UoP Law College. They suspended him and have now dismissed him and are going through a paper exercise to strip him of his law degree. Now they have attacked the Higher Education Commission for finding their beloved Vice Chancellor guilty. The defence of the Vice Chancellor is ingenious. First they have objected to the procedures followed by the Commission in not interrogating the Vice Chancellor. Since they felt this argument was probably a little weak they then redefined plagiarism so that the Vice Chancellor’s plagiarism was no longer plagiarism!!
The University has effectively created a Cheaters Charter. It has reinvented and redefined a plagiarism “threshold” of allowable copying as being 19% for scholarly articles and 25% for theses. And since – they claim – the Vice Chancellor only cheated to the extent of copying 18% of his book from others – what he did was not plagiarism!!
From being a case of the Vice Chancellor’s plagiarism this has now escalated to become a case of blatant corruption at the highest levels of the University and not excluding the Chancellor – who is of course merely taking a political position as the Governor of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.
The ethical standards of the University of Peshawar are beginning to stink.
Pakistan Today reports:
The University of Peshawar issued a clarification on a news item pertaining to plagiarism stating certain elements from a political group were involved. ….
The HEC thus already had jumped to conclusions without inquiring into the matter which shows a partial approach and mala fide intentions. This in fact was the only inquiry in history in which the author under investigation was not called before the committee. The plagiarism policy of HEC point number eight section“E“ clearly reads that the author under investigation must be provided opportunity to justify the originality of their concepts. …..
The HEC Plagiarism policy states plagiarism cases be dealt by respective universities and the threshold is setup by the concerned University in light of the Quality Assurance guidelines of HEC. The percentage of allowed threshold decided by meeting of the Advance Studies and Research Board of University of Peshawar in light of HEC Quality Assurance guidelines, in its meeting held on 25/11/2009 was 19% allowed matching (threshold) for published research articles and 25% for thesis.
The plagiarism allegations against the Vice Chancellor were looked in HEC recommended software and the result was shown to be 18%. This is the same software which is being used all over the country and by HEC. The same document was checked manually and the matching percentage of Kulwant Kaur Book “Pak Afghan relations” to that of Dr Azmat Hayat Khan book was 17%. …….
The press release stated the case was in court and an unbiased decision would be issued because the author would get a chance to explain his point of view and the facts of the matter. It said the University of Peshawar considered the HEC’s recommendation of a penalty and the press conference organized by them as contempt of court (against PHC decision) and will take the case to legal corners. It claims that the victimizing campaign is spear-headed by Zubair Mehsud. The press release denied Zubair was being targeted, as claimed by a newsreport, for raising his voice against the VC.
The press release said ex-Law College faculty member Zubair had been terminated for engaging in political activities against the VC’s directives and the used of defamatory language when issued show cause notice to explain his position on the matter.
But the demands on the Governor to replace the tainted Vice Chancellor are continuing to grow.
Tags: Azmat Hayat Khan, Cheaters Charter, Higher Education Commission of Pakistan, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Mohammad Zubair, Plagiarism, University of Peshawar
Posted in Corruption, Education, Ethics, Pakistan, Politics, scientific misconduct | 2 Comments »
August 26, 2011
Spanish priests in the New World were once a little wary of chillies – considering them an aphrodisiac and something which could inflame passions and therefore possibly a creation of the devil. They preached against indulgence in something “as hot as hell’s brimstone”. The opposition by the priests may have helped chillies gain popularity.
Women drying chillies image: news.bbc.co.uk
Chillies are known to be helpful against hypertension and against pain. They are antimicrobial and aid salivation. It is thought that capsaicin is an effective defense against a fungus that attacks chili seeds. In fact, experiments have shown that the same species of wild chili plant produces a lot of capsaicin in an environment where the fungus is likely to grow, and very little in drier areas where the fungus is not a danger. Perhaps a liking for chillies is one of the key features distinguishing humans from other mammals. Family legend has it that my own liking of chillies results from my grandmother coating my thumb in chillie powder as an infant to try and stop me from sucking it!!
But the list of medicinal benefits that chillies can provide is growing.
Now comes evidence in a new paper that chillies are effective against sinus inflammations as well.
Jonathan A. Bernstein, Benjamin P. Davis, Jillian K. Picard, Jennifer P. Cooper, Shu Zheng, Linda S. Levin. A randomized, double-blind, parallel trial comparing capsaicin nasal spray with placebo in subjects with a significant component of nonallergic rhinitis. Annals of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology, 2011; 107 (2): 171 DOI:10.1016/j.anai.2011.05.016
The authors conclude: This is the first controlled trial demonstrating intranasal capsaicin, when used continuously over 2 weeks, rapidly and safely improves symptoms in rhinitis subjects with a significant NAR component.
Science Daily
Hot chili peppers are known to make people “tear up,” but a new study led by University of Cincinnati allergy researcher Jonathan Bernstein, MD, found that a nasal spray containing an ingredient derived from hot chili peppers (Capsicum annum) may help people “clear up” certain types of sinus inflammation.
The study, which appears in the August 2011 edition of Annals of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology, compares the use of the Capsicum annum nasal spray to a placebo nasal spray in 44 subjects with a significant component of nonallergic rhinitis (i.e., nasal congestion, sinus pain, sinus pressure) for a period of two weeks.
Capsicum annum contains capsaicin, which is the main component of chili peppers and produces a hot sensation. Capsaicin is also the active ingredient in several topical medications used for temporary pain relief. …. This is the first controlled trial where capsaicin was able to be used on a continuous basis to control symptoms. It is considered a significant advance, “because we don’t really have good therapies for non-allergic rhinitis,” says Bernstein, adding that in previous trials the ingredient was too hot to administer without anaesthesia.
Tags: Capsaicin, medicinal properties of chillies, Nasal congestion, Nasal spray, Rhinitis, sinus inflammations
Posted in Food, Medicine | 2 Comments »
August 26, 2011
There is a clear disconnect between global coal consumption (and therefore carbon dioxide emissions) and global temperatures.
Of course we must take into account that these are only real data over the last 10 years and are not generated by computer models and have not been validated by the IPCC!!
Quote of the week at WUWT 22nd May 2011
“People underestimate the power of models. Observational evidence is not very useful,” adding, “Our approach is not entirely empirical.” John Mitchell, principal research scientist at the UK Met Office
P Gosselin at NoTricksZone has the “heretical” story:
Global Coal Consumption Jumps Almost 50% – Yet Global Temps Drop!
A recently released BP report here shows that global coal consumption has risen over the last 10 years by almost 50%. So wouldn’t you think that all those millions of tons of emitted CO2 (food for plants) as a result would drive the global temperatures up? Have temperatures risen along with all that extra coal burning?
No they haven’t. In fact they’ve dropped slightly over the same period. So go figure!
In the above chart the blue line shows global coal consumption, data taken here, Review of World Energy. According to the report, India and China alone are responsible for 90% of the world’s coal consumption increase, while renewable energy in the 2 countries plays nary a role. According to BP figures, global CO2 emissions rose 5.8% in the year 2010. ……..
Read source report
Tags: carbon dioxide emissions, climate, Coal, coal consumption, coal consumption disconnected from global temperature, Energy, Fossil fuel, global temperature, IPCC, John Mitchell
Posted in Alarmism, Climate, Energy | Comments Off on Coal consumption increases almost 50% in 10 years and has no impact on global temperature
August 26, 2011
An earlier post reported that the Vice-Chancellor of the University of Peshawar, Dr Azmat Hayat Khan had been found guilty of plagiarism by a three-member committee of the Higher Education Commission that was constituted to probe the matter. The complainant, Mohammad Zubair, an assistant professor at the UoP Law College was suspended by the University. Now Noor Aftab at The News reports that the actions against Zubair have turned nasty and the University is trying to cancel his degree in retaliation:
A teacher who raised voice against alleged plagiarism by the Vice Chancellor of University of Peshawar now himself faces hard times , as somewhat controversial internal Fact Finding Inquiry Committee, constituted to probe authenticity of his own LLM degree, has recommended cancelling his degree. ….
…. Assistant Professor Muhammad Zubair said he approached HEC on March 10 and Governor House on March 16 this year to raise issue of plagiarism by the University of Peshawar vice chancellor. “The university administration got infuriated over it and an inquiry was launched on March 17 and I was suspended on March 20 to mute my voice against illegal act of the University of Peshawar vice chancellor”, he said.
Some small hope for Zubair lies in that the Civil Society has started a movement against the plagiarism of the Vice Chancellor Dr Azmat Hayat Khan, reports Pakistan Today.
After the alleged involvement of University of Peshawar (UoP) Vice Chancellor Azmat Hayat Khan in plagiarism, the Joint Action Committee of Civil Society against Plagiarism on Thursday announced to launch ‘Save Peshawar University’ movement to stop any such future incidents. Idrees Kamal, Dr Syed Alam Mehsood and office bearers of other civil societies told a press conference that plagiarism was not only an academic dishonesty but it also challenged the moral norms of the society. …
The committee said that ‘zero tolerance for plagiarism’ was the slogan often raised on various literary platforms. The Supreme Court chief justice termed literary plagiarism as a legally punishable crime, it added.
Idrees Kamal and Dr Syed Alam Mehsood expressed their disapproval of the relevant authorities’ negligence in the matter. “Azmat Hayat (Khan) is still enjoying the office and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa governor is a silent spectator”, they said, adding that if the vice chancellor was allowed to continue as head of UoP it would be a disgrace and the university might get blacklisted internationally.
But I am very pessimistic about Zubair’s prospects. He is fighting a losing battle against a powerful establishment and he will likely have his law degree cancelled. Whether civil society in Pakistan can or will mobilise itself sufficiently to make any difference, either in protecting him or in having any sanctions levied against the plagiarising Vice Chancellor, is is very doubtful. Zubair does seem to have some support in society and at least in one newspaper but the blogosphere is probably not sufficiently developed or influential in Pakistan to have much impact.
Tags: Azmat Hayat Khan, Civil Society, Higher Education Commission of Pakistan, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, Muhammad Zubair, Plagiarism, University of Peshawar
Posted in Education, Ethics, Pakistan, scientific misconduct | 2 Comments »
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