Earthquakes July 5th

July 5, 2011

Following up from the red warning from Weather Action today’s news brings

Earthquake shakes Melbourne 

6.5 magnitude earthquake hits New Zealand’s lower North Island

Powerful 5.4 magnitude earthquake hits Western Japan

Generally the number of earthquakes during the period warned about was at the heightened level apparent for the last few months but nothing extraordinary was apparent.

Quakes today:

2.7  2011/07/05 09:30:20   60.138  -150.048 32.8  KENAI PENINSULA, ALASKA

3.7  2011/07/05 09:16:29  -38.336   145.821 21.0  NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA

 4.7  2011/07/05 06:39:06   38.331   144.294 45.1  OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

 2.6  2011/07/05 03:49:53   38.428  -118.735 5.2  NEVADA

 5.3  2011/07/05 03:36:25  -38.597   175.688 161.3  NORTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND

 2.6  2011/07/05 03:24:54   59.906  -141.828 18.2  SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA

3.3  2011/07/05 03:22:07   39.928  -111.816 1.3  UTAH

2.7  2011/07/05 02:46:47   38.424  -118.740 2.7  NEVADA

3.3  2011/07/05 02:37:16  -38.404   145.888 0.0  NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA

3.6  2011/07/05 02:30:30   38.423  -118.742 3.5  NEVADA

2.5  2011/07/05 01:53:52   36.267  -120.765 7.8  CENTRAL CALIFORNIA

 4.6  2011/07/05 01:32:14  -38.361   145.817 9.9  NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA


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Posted in Natural Disasters, Natural Phenomena | 1 Comment »

Reducing sulphur emissions caused post-1970 global warming!!!!

July 5, 2011

Whether warming or cooling it would seem that anthropogenic effects and man’s burning of coal is responsible.

“The post 1970 period of warming, which constitutes a significant portion of the increase in global surface temperature since the mid 20th century, is driven by efforts to reduce air pollution in general and acid deposition in particular”.

That’s the conclusion of a new paper from the “peer-reviewed” literature confirming the obvious that global temperatures have plateaued since 1998.

Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998–2008

Robert K. Kaufmann, Heikki Kauppi, Michael L. Mann, James, H. Stock

pnas. 201102467

PDF from WUWT

And though the paper cuts off  data in 2008 this temperature stability certainly continues till 2010 and it seems – on my own empirical observations  – even in 2011.

As the paper title shows this real stabilisation of temperatures which is not predicted by any climate model and which may well be a precursor of a few decades of global cooling is of some concern to the Anthropogenic Global Warming enthusiasts. The presumption is that the model results are supreme and that reality must be reconciled by invoking further anthropogenic effects.

Needless to say any global cooling is not acknowledged since that would be heretical and instead short-term anthropogenic factors (sulphur emissions from coal burning in China)  are blamed for this cessation of global warming!!

Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects.

The conclusion is formulated to avoid any semblance of heresy and to ensure publication no doubt.

The finding that the recent hiatus in warming is driven largely by natural factors does
not contradict the hypothesis: “most of the observed increase in global  average temperature since the mid 20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations (14)”. As indicated in Figure 1, anthropogenic activities that warm and cool the planet largely cancel after 1998, which allows natural variables to play a more significant role. ……   

The post 1970 period of warming, which constitutes a significant portion of the increase in global surface temperature since the mid 20th century, is driven by efforts to reduce air pollution in general and acid deposition in particular, which cause sulfur emissions to decline while the concentration of greenhouse gases continues to rise. 

That reality is being acknowledged is heartening but relying on the anthropogenic effects effects of coal burning alone (carbon dioxide emissions causing warming and sulphur emissions causing cooling) with only a passing reference to solar effects is not just naive – it is denying the obvious.

Related:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/04/a-peer-reviewed-admission-that-global-surface-temperatures-did-not-rise-dr-david-whitehouse-on-the-pnas-paper-kaufmann-et-al-2011/

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Posted in Alarmism, Climate, Peer review, Science | 3 Comments »

Tepco shares rise sharply on reports of planned break-up and nationalisation

July 4, 2011

Tepco shares rose almost 20% today as reports on Sunday described government plans to break-up the Japanese utility and to nationalise its nuclear plant assets.

Market Watch:

 

Senior members of Japan’s government have been involved in secret plans to break up the operator of the beleaguered Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, according to reports. 

The plan would see the nuclear operations of Tokyo Electric Power Co. JP:9501 +19.82%  come under government control, said Reuters, citing a report Sunday in a local paper.

The plan has been devised by Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku, said Reuters, citing the Mainichi daily. The newspaper said its information was from unnamed sources.

As well as nationalizing the nuclear business, the plan would see Tepco sell its power distribution business, said Reuters. Power-generation operations that use thermal and hydraulic power plants would remain as the company’s business. 

The plan would shred Tepco’s size, according to the reports, leaving it with 1.6 trillion yen ($19.8 billion) in power industry assets compared to its current 7 trillion yen.

The reports state that Sengoku has met several times with Tepco Chairman Tsunehisa Katsumata, and has informed Katsumata about the plans.

Also Sunday, The Wall Street Journal said the company has restarted the use of contaminated water to cool the reactor cores at Fukushima, one week after an initial attempt was suspended because of leaks. Tepco is hoping to achieve a cold shutdown, lowering the fuel rods’ temperature to below 100 degrees Celsius, by January.

Related:

https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2011/03/29/tepco-leadership-in-disarray-as-share-price-drops-to-47-year-low-and-government-considers-nationalisation/

https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2011/03/30/tepco-stocks-are-on-their-way-to-losing-all-value/

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Posted in Business, Energy, Japan, Natural Disasters | Comments Off on Tepco shares rise sharply on reports of planned break-up and nationalisation

Signs that the Japanese recovery is beginning

July 4, 2011

Having a very strong belief in the resilience of Japan and the Japanese in the face of natural disasters, I have – paradoxically – been anticipating that the Great 2011 earthquake and tsunami will actually lead to a wave of infrastructure spending which can actually lead to a new spurt of economic growth. If political changes are also forthcoming this could be a wave of sustainable growth. 

Now 3 months after the quake and tsunami the first signs are visible that the recovery is beginning. There is a long way yet to go but I remain convinced that over the next 2 or 3 years we will see Japan re-emerging as a significant motor driving the world economy.

Bloomberg:

 

Japan’s industrial production rose at the fastest pace in more than 50 years, led by carmakers as they restored operations at plants after a record earthquake and tsunami on March 11.

Factory output increased 5.7 percent in May from April, the biggest gain since 1953, the Trade Ministry said in Tokyo today. The median estimate of 30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 5.5 percent gain.

Output in the transportation industry advanced 36 percent from the previous month as automakers including Toyota Motor Corp. and Nissan Motor Co. restarted production lines. Manufacturers said they plan to increase output 5.3 percent this month and 0.5 percent in July, according to a survey of companies included in today’s report.

“The report shows that the auto industry is a strong driving force” in boosting production, said Hiroaki Muto, a senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “The post-quake shock is running its course and production is undergoing a V-shaped recovery.”

The output report follows data this week showing that retail sales rose 2.4 percent in May from April, in a sign that consumer demand is rebounding.

Business World:

 

THE AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY foresees a more stable supply situation at the very least following reports that Japanese parts production has picked up following March’s deadly earthquake and tsunami. Timing of a return to full output, however, remains uncertain given power shortages caused by the shutdown of the Fukushima nuclear plant, industry officials said.

Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry last week said industrial production rose by 5.7% month-on-month in May from 1.6% in April, with transport equipment among the sectors leading growth. Inventory was said to have similarly increased by 5.1% in May from previous month on improved production of electronics parts and devices, among others.

 

 

 

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Posted in Economy, Japan, Natural Disasters | Comments Off on Signs that the Japanese recovery is beginning

DSK case collapsing: Was this just French politics to kill his Presidential aspirations?

July 1, 2011
French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde (L) ...

French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde (L) talks with International Monetary Fund's Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn (R):Image via Wikipedia

The New York Times broke this story and it makes me wonder if the anti- DSK faction in France were behind all of this just to get him out of the running for French President and – incidentally – to replace him with a Sarkozy-friendly Christine Lagarde at the IMF. With the internecine nature of French politics  reality is often much more convoluted than the most fanciful conspiracy theories. Perhaps Sarkozy  – who loves devious political machinations – was behind all of this?

The sexual assault case against Dominique Strauss-Kahn is on the verge of collapse as investigators have uncovered major holes in the credibility of the housekeeper who charged that he attacked her in his Manhattan hotel suite in May, according to two well-placed law enforcement officials. …. 

Since her initial allegation on May 14, the accuser has repeatedly lied, one of the law enforcement officials said. Senior prosecutors met with lawyers for Mr. Strauss-Kahn on Thursday and provided details about their findings, and the parties are discussing whether to dismiss the felony charges. Among the discoveries, one of the officials said, are issues involving the asylum application of the 32-year-old housekeeper, who is Guinean, and possible links to people involved in criminal activities, including drug dealing and money laundering. …. 

The revelations are a stunning change of fortune for Mr. Strauss-Kahn, 62, who was considered a strong contender for the French presidency before being accused of sexually assaulting the woman who went to clean his luxury suite at the Sofitel New York.

Prosecutors from the office of the Manhattan district attorney, Cyrus R. Vance Jr., who initially were emphatic about the strength of the case and the account of the victim, plan to tell the judge on Friday that they “have problems with the case” based on what their investigators have discovered, and will disclose more of their findings to the defense. The woman still maintains that she was attacked, the officials said.

“It is a mess, a mess on both sides,” one official said.

According to the two officials, the woman had a phone conversation with an incarcerated man within a day of her encounter with Mr. Strauss-Kahn in which she discussed the possible benefits of pursuing the charges against him. The conversation was recorded.

That man, the investigators learned, had been arrested on charges of possessing 400 pounds of marijuana. He is among a number of individuals who made multiple cash deposits, totaling around $100,000, into the woman’s bank account over the last two years. The deposits were made in Arizona, Georgia, New York and Pennsylvania.

The investigators also learned that she was paying hundreds of dollars every month in phone charges to five companies. The woman had insisted she had only one phone and said she knew nothing about the deposits except that they were made by a man she described as her fiancé and his friends.

In addition, one of the officials said, she told investigators that her application for asylum included mention of a previous rape, but there was no such account in the application. She also told them that she had been subjected to genital mutilation, but her account to the investigators differed from what was contained in the asylum application.

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Posted in France, Politics, US | 3 Comments »

Nature editorial chastises IPCC for conflict of interest policy

June 30, 2011

The Nature editorial  published today will be unwelcome criticism for the IPCC from a normally very friendly quarter. “Shot with its own gun” is the headline and the editorial chastises Pachauri and the IPCC for failing “to make clear when this new conflict-of-interest policy will come into effect and whom it will cover. It needs to do so — and fast”.

Allowing Greenpeace to ‘dictate’ the IPCC’s renewable-energy report was particularly inept and as one Nature reader puts it “The IPCC has become a Centre of Criticism”. But the fundamental problem with the IPCC is of course that it has become an advocacy group with a pre-determined agenda where scientific evidence has been replaced by dubious results from scenarios. Claiming that model results of a chaotic and imperfectly understood system are “settled science” is the travesty.

But criticism coming from Nature is friendly fire indeed.

Nature 474, 541 (30 June 2011) doi:10.1038/474541a

Shot with its own gun

In the past two years, the IPCC has displayed a talent for manoeuvring itself into embarrassing situations, making itself an easy target for critics and climate sceptics.

The problems began in late 2009, when it was reported that the IPCC’s fourth assessment report, published two years earlier, mistakenly claimed that all Himalayan glaciers could melt by 2035. The subsequent fallout seriously damaged the IPCC’s credibility, and was exacerbated by the inept attempts of the group’s chairman, Rajendra Pachauri, to contain the crisis. A subsequent review of the organization’s governance and policies saw it commit to a number of wide-ranging reforms.

This month, the IPCC is in the crosshairs again. The revelation that a Greenpeace energy analyst helped to write a key chapter in the IPCC’s Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation, released last month, sparked widespread criticism across the blogosphere. Compared with the glacier faux pas, the latest incident is trivial. But it should remind the IPCC that its recently reworked policies and procedures need to be implemented, visibly and quickly.

In response to the glacier blunder, the IPCC pledged greater caution in the processes it uses to select scientific experts and to evaluate grey literature, and to make sure that (unpaid) work for the panel does not clash with interests arising from the professional affiliations of its staff and contributing authors (see Nature473, 261; 2011). But it has failed to make clear when this new conflict-of-interest policy will come into effect and whom it will cover. It needs to do so — and fast. 

This is the only way that the organization can counter recurring claims that it is less policy-neutral than its mandate from the United Nations obliges it to be. In particular, it needs to make clear the position for the working groups on climate-change impacts and adaptation (the science group adopted a rigid conflict-of-interest policy last year). Pachauri is on record as saying that the new conflict-of-interest policy will not apply retrospectively to the hundreds of authors already selected for the IPCC’s fifth assessment report, due in 2014. This is unacceptable. He should make it a priority to ensure that the rules cover everyone involved — including himself. …

The IPCC’s vulnerability to such attacks should also prompt it to reconsider how it frames its findings. Journalists and critics alike gravitate towards extreme claims. So when the IPCC’s press material for the May report prominently pushed the idea that renewables could provide “close to 80%” of the world’s energy needs by 2050, it was no surprise that it was this figure that made headlines — and made waves. The IPCC would have saved itself a lot of trouble and some unwarranted criticism had it made the origins of this scenario explicit.

Now with the natural death of the Kyoto Protocol and with a few decades of cooling in front of us it is time for the IPCC to be disbanded.

Related articles

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Posted in Alarmism, Climate, Science, Scientific Fraud | Comments Off on Nature editorial chastises IPCC for conflict of interest policy

Iraq and Afghanistan wars have provided a $4 trillion stimulus package

June 30, 2011

The cost of wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan are estimated at 225,000 lives and up to $4 trillion in U.S. spending, in a new report  by scholars with the Eisenhower Research Project at Brown University’s Watson Institute for International Studies. 

Nearly 10 years after the declaration of the War on Terror, the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan have killed at least 225,000 people, including men and women in uniform, contractors, and civilians. The wars will cost Americans between $3.2 and $4 trillion, including medical care and disability for current and future war veterans, according to a new report by the Eisenhower Research Project based at Brown University’s Watson Institute for International Studies. If the wars continue, they are on track to require at least another $450 billion in Pentagon spending by 2020.

The group’s “Costs of War” project, which involved more than 20 economists, anthropologists, lawyers, humanitarian personnel, and political scientists, provides new estimates of the total war cost as well as other direct and indirect human and economic costs of the U.S. military response to the 9/11 attacks. The project is the first comprehensive analysis of all U.S., coalition, and civilian casualties, including U.S. contractors. It also assesses many of the wars’ hidden costs, such as interest on war-related debt and veterans’ benefits.

The Costs of War has released its findings online, at www.costsofwar.org, to spur public discussion about America at war.

But the institution of war is vital to a modern economy and massive spending of taxpayer’s money – in whatever form – is nothing more than a stimulus package for any economy. Infrastructure spending , sometimes on little needed infrastructure, is a commonly used vehicle for injecting a stimulus. The building industry for example has a vested interest in promoting bridges and roads to nowhere and the car industry supports public schemes for scrapping old cars. That the weapons industry has a vested interest in promoting wars is obvious. And war is also a commonly used vehicle for propping up or revitalising a flagging economy.

Industrial economies are intimately connected with the production of military technology and military capacity. Because of this, the elimination of war would prove economically devastating as large sectors of society, both in technology and manufacturing, would be wiped out.

After the first gulf war in 1991, the New York Times assessed the economic benefits of the conflict

As a result of the war in the Persian Gulf and its aftermath, the United States is likely to borrow far less from abroad this year than last. Many forecasters expect the deficit in the current account — the broadest gauge of the nation’s imports and exports of goods and services — to shrink sharply in 1991. 

According to a report released by the Department of Commerce yesterday, the United States’ current account deficit amounted to $99.3 billion in 1990, down from $110 billion in 1989. The $99.3 billion figure is the smallest gap since 1984.

Here is how the gulf war could narrow the gap even more: For starters, the invasion of Kuwait helped touch off the recession, cooling the nation’s appetite for imports. Then, the allied victory caused crude prices to plunge, slashing the bill for imported oil.

In addition, America’s allies are contributing about $51 billion to the United States’ war kitty, money that otherwise would have had to have been borrowed from private investors overseas. 

Finally, postwar rebuilding in the Middle East will increase business for American construction companies and equipment producers. United States arms makers are also expected to benefit as countries restock their arsenals.

In fact, if the allies anted up the bulk of their share of war costs right away, analysts said, the United States could become a net foreign lender, at least for a month or two, for the first time in a decade.

 

But whether the economic, social and political benefits of the $4 trillion and 225,000 lives spent on the War on Terror have been worthwhile is a question that will not be properly answered except in the light of historical perspective. 

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Posted in Economics, Politics, US | 2 Comments »

Earthquakes this week

June 29, 2011

Following the Weather Action warning last week ,

Earthquakes so far this week (23rd – 29th June).

University of Edinburgh earthquake locator

>= 6.5 6 – 6.5 5 – 6 4 – 5 < 4

Earthquake report is here.

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Hari, Johann: Plagiarising Churnalist

June 29, 2011

Churnalism is a form of journalism in which press releases, wire stories and other forms of pre-packaged material are used to create articles in newspapers and other news media in order to meet increasing pressures of time and cost without undertaking further research or checking.

Now we have Johann Hari (who I had never heard of till yesterday) apparently just lifting the writings of people he has interviewed and reproducing them as if they were said to him. The Telegraph:

Johann Hari, a multiple award winning political journalist who writes for newspapers around the world, was exposed after a reader noticed that a quote in one of his stories had been cut and pasted from a book.

Such was the controversy that he was forced to respond in a personal blog, but his defence only further fuelled the intensity of the attacks against him.

Within 24 hours the discovery had sparked a massive backlash as other examples of his alleged plagiarism were uncovered.

On Twitter, the micro-blogging website, users posted a series of jokes in which famous sayings in history were re-created as if Mr Hari had been told them in intimate interviews, while blogs from rival journalists accusing him of so-called “churnalism”. ….

Calls also grew for him to hand back his George Orwell prize, the most prestigious in political journalism, while the Independent, his main newspaper, received demands that he should be sacked.

His reversal of fortunes has been dramatic. Just a few days ago Mr Hari remained the darling of the left wing and was recently named as one of the most influential people on the left in Britain. He has reported from wars all over the world and been a regular art critic on television and a book reviewer.

As well as the Orwell Prize he has won awards from Amnesty International, the British Press Awards and Stonewall, the gay right activists. He has been a renowned critic of other organisations if he believed they strayed from the truth, especially those on the right, and has more than 60,000 followers on Twitter. …. 

Last night the Media Standards Trust, which funds the Orwell prize, demanded an investigation to see whether he should be stripped of the award. It said that the issue had “the potential to damage its reputation”. The organisers of the award said they were following a “process” normally carried out in “situation such as this”.

Toby Young writes on his blog:

For some time now, Hari has been under fire for his cut-and-paste technique – that is, passing off things that his subjects have said elsewhere as things they’ve said to him during his interviews.

A typical example was his 2009 interview in the Independent with Malalai Joya, billed as “the bravest woman in Afghanistan” (hat tip Brian Whelan). Here’s an extract from the interview:

I ask if she was frightened, and she shakes her head. “I am never frightened when I tell the truth.” She is speaking fast now: “I am truly honoured to have been vilified and threatened by the savage men who condemned our country to such misery. I feel proud that even though I have no private army, no money, and no world powers behind me, these brutal despots are afraid of me and scheme to eliminate me.”

But did she actually say this to Hari? The words Hari quoted are identical to those in a press release for her book, Raising My Voice: The Extraordinary Story of the Afghan Woman Who Dares to Speak Out:

I am truly honoured to have been vilified and threatened by the savage men who have condemned our country to such misery. I feel proud that even though I have no private army, no money and no world powers behind me, these brutal despots are afraid of me and scheme to eliminate me.

The furore has forced Hari to respond in a personal blog entitled Interview Etiquette.

He does protest too much.

Churnalism is nothing new and neither is plagiarism by journalists. But Mr. Hari seems to have plagiarised not merely for “improving” the quality of his articles but also for mis-representing his interviews (and by inference his interview techniques) as being far more productive and effective than they actually were.

Not just plagiarism in the service of an over-inflated journalist ego but actually a lack of ethics which is tantamount to corruption.

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Posted in Corruption, Ethics, Media | 3 Comments »

Midsommar

June 26, 2011

Light blogging during the Midsommar holidays which I am spending on the west coast of Sweden.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off on Midsommar

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