Gaddafi & family activate Plan B to save themselves

March 25, 2011

That Gaddafi and family are not the kind to die heroically fighting to the last breath for some matter of principle is fairly clear. That their private aircraft were flitting around the world a few weeks ago secretly shifting and hiding their assets is an educated presumption. It seems increasingly likely that a “Plan B” for survival anda re-grouping is being put into effect as the “no-fly zone” and sanctions and the world-wide freezing of Libyan assets takes effect.

Belarus – not Venezuela – maybe Gaddafi’s bolt-hole

Map indicating location of Belarus and Libya

Belarus and Libya: image Wikipedia

My reading is that the family have already prepared their bolt hole most probably in Belarus and that Venezuela and Cuba are not viable. Kazakhstan and Tajikistan are remotely possible. I would not be surprised if the sudden flight of his nurse Galyna Kolotnytska back to Ukraine at the end of February was executed as part of Plan B. But the problem for Gaddafi and his family is now to arrange a “safe passage” to wherever the bolt-hole has been prepared.

Reuters reports:

Members of Muammar Gaddafi’s entourage are putting out feelers to seek a ceasefire or safe passage from Libya.

Roger Tamraz, a Middle Eastern businessman with long experience conducting deals with the Libyan regime said Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, Muammar’s eldest son, and Abdullah Senoussi, the Libyan leader’s brother-in-law, were the most prominent Gaddafi entourage members involved in seeking ways to end the fighting. A U.S. national security official, who asked for anonymity when discussing sensitive information, said that U.S. government agencies were aware that Saif al-Islam and Senoussi had been involved in making peace overtures.

“It’s clear that some of Gaddafi’s family members always have a plan B up their sleeve. That doesn’t mean they’ll leave and certain Gaddafis are probably going to stick with their crazy dad no matter what happens,” the U.S. official said.

In an interview on Tuesday with a U.S. television network, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she was aware that people close to Gaddafi had been trying to make contact.

“I’m not aware that he personally has reached out, but I do know that people allegedly on his behalf have been reaching out,” Clinton told ABC America’s Diane Sawyer.

“This is what we hear from so many sources…Today, yesterday, the day before. Some of it…is theater, some of it is kind of, shall we say, game-playing…But some of it, we think, is exploring, ‘what are my options, where could I go, what could I do.’ And we would encourage that,” Clinton said.

The U.S. national security official added: “It’s not at all surprising that members of the Gaddafi regime might be looking for ways out of this mess.” …..

Tamraz told Reuters that some of the most aggressive efforts by members of Gaddafi’s entourage to start dialogue were being channeled through Austria. A European government financial investigator said that Libya was believed to have extensive wealth and investments in Austria.

Tamraz said that he believed Saif al-Islam, Senoussi and other members of the Gaddafi entourage were proposing a ceasefire between government forces, rebels and the anti-Gaddafi Western alliance, or plans which would enable members of the Libyan leader’s entourage to go into exile peacefully.


Two 7.0 quakes hit Burma — as predicted?

March 24, 2011

Update 25th March! Reports are now beginning to come in of over 50 70 killed.

In the light of  the recent predictions of increased earthquake activity especially in the period 22nd – 27th March, two large 7.0 quakes – as if on cue – have rocked north east Burma (Myanmar) close to the borders with Laos and Thailand.

The prediction was made by Jim Berkland and Piers Corbyn and points to solar effects as the trigger.

The are hit by the two quakes are remote  and even if large numbers of people and heavy infrastructure are not involved,  at magnitude 7.0 they are very powerful quakes and they may have been devastating for the people in this very poor region. One of the quakes was very shallow and may have caused much destruction.

One more major quake in the Pacific Rim region in the next 3 to 4 days will, I think, be a very strong indicator that we should be looking mainly at the sun in efforts to anticipate what triggers earthquakes. Tectonic plate movement clearly describes the build up of forces in the earth’s crust but what triggers particular quakes at particular times is largely unknown.

BBC reports:

map

Burma earthquake 24th March 2011

North-east Burma has been rocked by two 7.0 magnitude earthquakes, close to the borders with Laos and Thailand, the US Geological Survey has reported.

They struck seconds apart at 1355 GMT and were centred about 70 miles (110 km) from the northern Thai city of Chiang Rai, the agency said.

The first quake was shallow, at a depth of 6.2 miles (10km), while the second was much deeper at 142.5 miles (230km).

Tremors could be felt as far away as Bangkok and Hanoi. The area where the quakes struck is sparsely populated and remote. The BBC’s Rachel Harvey in Bangkok said it could be a while before the extent of the damage is known.

Seismic monitor

article image

chart from iris.edu

ABOVE chart from iris.edu

WordPress blogging hiccups

March 24, 2011

For the last 24 hours I have been having difficulties and saving and publishing posts has been a little haphazard.

Presumably this is because of the massive attacks WordPress.com has been subjected to though it is not clear to me why such attacks would be motivated.

After having lost a couple of posts I shall take a day or two off  from blogging and hope that the hard-pressed staff of WordPress succeed in their efforts to stave off the attacks and make their sites even more robust.

Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant: Reactor #3 control room powered up and cooling pumps to be switched on tomorrow

March 23, 2011

Progress at the Fukushima Dai-ihi nuclear plant continues steadily but slowly.External power is now available to all 6 reactors. Highlights today:

  • A high-powered water cannon truck has arrived from Australia at a US base in Tokyo to help recovery efforts at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. The water cannon can shoot 150 liters of water per second at a target 150 meters away. It can also operate unmanned for 2 to 3 days while pumping seawater. It will be sent o Fukushima if needed.
  • A vehicle with a long spraying arm injected water into the No.4 reactor at the troubled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant for about 3 hours on Tuesday. The vehicle, owned by a construction firm in Mie Prefecture in central Japan, began the operation at 5:17 PM Tuesday at the request of the Tokyo Electric Power Company. The vehicle is used in construction of high-rise buildings, and is capable of extending its arm more than 50 meters to pour concrete. The operation ended at about 8:30 PM.

Water spraying into Reactor #4: image nhk

  • Tokyo fire department started operation of spraying water to Unit-3 through cooperation with Osaka fire department. Water spraying  was conducted for one hour and finished around 16:00. Total amount of water sprayed is more than 3 times the pool capacity.
  • TEPCO said on Tuesday that it will restore power to the control rooms of No.3 and No.4 reactors as soon as water-spraying operations are completed to cool down fuel storage pools.
  • Defense Minister Kitazawa announced  that surface temperature measurement by helicopter will be conducted everyday, weather permitting, and not just twice a week in view of the smoke and steam that has been observed.

NHK World:

TEPCO has restored the electricity supply to the control room of the Number 3 reactor at the quake-damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. Lights in the control room were switched on again on Tuesday night.
Eleven days have passed since the massive earthquake devastated northeastern Japan and cut off external power to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant.
TEPCO reconnected power cables to the Number 3 and Number 4 reactors earlier on Tuesday.
TEPCO will now try to reactivate vital monitoring systems in the control rooms, such as those for measuring temperatures inside the reactors and water levels in the spent fuel storage pools. TEPCO says it will transmit electricity to the cooling pump for the Number 3 reactor on Wednesday. The company says if the pump functions normally, it will begin cooling the reactor and the spent fuel storage pool

Another major earthquake within the next 6 days?

March 22, 2011

According to Piers Corbyn of Weather action:

According to Corbyn it was the ‘X Class’ solar flare of March 10, 2011 that caused a significant hit on the Earth by a Coronal Mass Ejection, which was reported by NASA. He says this, in turn, triggered the massive Japan super quake (M=9.0) the following day.

Former USGS geologist Jim Berkland warns of a ‘high risk’ seismic window and potential for a massive quake poised to strike somewhere in North America in between the dates of March 19th and 26th.

Three massive earthquakes have struck the Ring of Fire in the past year, says Berkland. If this clockwise trend continues, that places the Pacific NW next in line. The top seismic window in years is developing between the 19th of March and the 26th. There has been a massive fish kill off the coast of California, which indicates changes in the magnetic field.

The Indonesian tsunami struck on the day of a full moon, says Berkland. So did the Alaska earthquake of 1964. Though many scientists disagree with him, Berkland correctly predicted the 1989 “World Series” earthquake four days in advance.

EXTREME WEATHER AND EARTHQUAKE DANGER IMMINENT around 23rd-27th March warns Piers Corbyn

The very active solar region which emerged from the SE limb of the sun on the morning of 21st March is crackling with dangerous activity including extreme UV radiation and up to 50Mev proton bursts and its appearance along with other active regions on the sun fits our WeatherAction.com long-range WARNING for significant weather extremes and earthquakes in the period around 23rd-27th March, issued during February.

The weather events are expected in two waves ~23/24th and ~26/27th and extreme earthquake events risk is significantly enhanced all through this period 23-27th but probably more enhanced later with high risk continuing a day or so after 27th.

John O’Sullivan writes

Berkland suggests that in this top seismic window in years, the west coast of the united States as a high risk area. Piers Corbyn is less specific on the location but believes the time of highest risk is in the five day period of 23th to the 27th March.

Related:

The Great Sendai quake of 2011 is part of the Sun’s Dance

Solar effects will give increased volcanic and earthquake activity in the next 2 years


Juholt, the smiling Stalin, begins the purge as the Social Democrats try to relive the past

March 22, 2011

The Social Democrats in Sweden will have their convention at the end of this week where Håkan Juholt will be confirmed by a vast majority, if not unanimously, as their new leader. It will all seem very democratic of course even though the party’s Nomination Committee produced his name out of a hat at the last minute after a very obscure and confusing process reminiscent of a Soviet style politburo election in action.

Håkan Juholt : image ulf-vargek.blogspot.com

While Juholt’s physical resemblance to a smiling Stalin is meant partly in jest, the coup by the left wing of the party and the subsequent purge of the more moderate and “right-wing” leaders is anything but a jest. There may not be much real blood spilled in these days but the elimination of the “opposition” is as ruthless as anything Stalin perpetrated. In an organisational sense the Social Democrats are the true inheritors of the power broking style of the communist parties of the Soviet bloc. The smoke-filled rooms are gone (since this is Sweden and smoking is almost as sinful as any hint of male chauvinism and certainly more sinful than paedophilia) but the back-rooms are still around and the influence of the power brokers still reigns supreme.

Of course a new leader will appoint his friends around him. But guilt by association has been created as a new sin within the Social Democrats. The Nomination Committee has done its job well and prepared the way for a purge. Where unwanted individuals actually proposed policies more in line with the electorate, they have been blamed for the election defeat without reference to policies so that they can be removed. Where favoured individuals backed the losing policies they have anyway been “promoted” as being the instruments of rejuvenation. But all of this is merely an attempt to step back to the “good old times” of 40 years ago.

The Svenska Dagbladet writes:

The ousting of Ylva Johansson and Thomas Östros is extraordinary. The latter is being punished for being Mona Sahlin’s candidate for finance minister. There seems also to be a new principle that not only the leader shall be held accountable for policy failures.

It looks like a shift to the left. (So the Social Democrats) dismiss Thomas Östros who criticized the Social Democrats’ fiscal policies from the right and selects Veronica Palm who has defended the tax policy adopted before the election.

I wonder how long it will take for the Social Democrats to realise that trying to recreate “good old times” is a cul-de-sac.


Media coverage dies as work resumes at Fukushima Dai-ichi – steam plumes did not raise radiation levels

March 22, 2011

Fukushima hysteria dies down as the media find that their alarmist and sensational reporting is not going to be sustainable.

Perhaps they will return their attention and their headlines to the victims of the earthquake and the tsunami in between the bombing raids on Tripoli.

As George Monbiot puts it in The Guardian:

As a result of the disaster at Fukushima, I am no longer nuclear-neutral. I now support the technology.

A crappy old plant with inadequate safety features was hit by a monster earthquake and a vast tsunami. The electricity supply failed, knocking out the cooling system. The reactors began to explode and melt down. The disaster exposed a familiar legacy of poor design and corner-cutting. Yet, as far as we know, no one has yet received a lethal dose of radiation.

Now George Monbiot’s views about energy in general, and renewables in particular, are usually quite ridiculous and ill thought through but  where he is absolutely right is of course that in spite of the headlines and the apocalypse scenarios, no one has yet received a lethal dose of radiation”.

The work at Fukushima is difficult and hazardous  and it will test the courage and ingenuity of many – but it goes on even if all the headlines are gone     —– Kyodo News:

Work to restore power and crucial cooling functions resumed Tuesday morning at the crisis-hit reactors at the quake-stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, following suspension Monday after smoke was detected at its No. 2 and No. 3 reactors, its operator said.

Firefighters and the Self-Defense Forces also prepared to restart a mission later in the day to spray a massive amount of coolant water onto spent nuclear fuel pools at the No. 3 and No. 4 reactors, according to Tokyo Electric Power Co.

Although white smoke, possibly steam, was found to be continuously billowing from the buildings of the No. 2 and No. 3 reactors, the utility known as TEPCO found it does not obstruct electricity restoration work as radiation levels did not particularly surge at the site.

An external power source was connected to the No. 4 reactor in the morning, making it the fifth of the plant’s six reactors to have regained a power supply needed for the restoration of equipment such as a ventilation system to filter radioactive substances from the air and some measuring tools at the control room.

TEPCO aims to restore power systems to revive some key facilities such as data measuring equipment and functions at a control room by Wednesday for the No. 1 and No. 2 reactors and by Thursday for the No. 3 and No. 4 reactors, said Hidehiko Nishiyama, a spokesman for the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, at a press conference.

Fukushima Dai-ichi plant: Work stopped as steam rises from reactors # 2 and 3

March 21, 2011

Work to connect power cables to the No. 3 and No. 4 reactors was halted Monday at the crisis-hit Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, after smoke rose from the buildings housing the No. 2 and No. 3 reactors, the plant operator said.

TEPCO said it had briefly evacuated its workers after grayish and blackish smoke was spotted at the southeast of the No. 3 reactor building around 3:55 p.m. above a pool storing spent nuclear fuel, though a blast was not heard.

The smoke stopped after 6 p.m., but TEPCO subsequently found that white smoke was rising through a crack in the roof of the building that houses the No. 2 reactor at around 6:20 p.m. The utility said later the smoke is believed to be steam, not from the reactor’s fuel pool. As the No. 3 reactor remains without power, smoke was not apparently triggered by an electricity leak or short-circuiting.

The government’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency said no injuries were confirmed in the incidents and that there have been no major changes in the radiation levels at the site.

Before the smoke was detected, external power had reached the power-receiving facilities of the No. 2 and No. 5 reactors on Sunday, clearing the way for the plant operator to restore systems to monitor radiation levels and other data, light the control rooms and cool down the reactors and their spent-fuel storage pools. On Monday, TEPCO finished laying cables to transmit electricity to the No. 4 reactor, as a step toward resuscitating the power systems at the No. 3 and No. 4 reactors, according to the utility and the nuclear agency.

International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Yukiya Amano told a special meeting of its board of governors that the situation at the Fukushima plant ”remains serious, but we are starting to see some positive developments.”

Tokyo Electric Power Co. said it will resume the operation on Tuesday after observing the situation at the site.

 

 

Andrew – Prince of beggars

March 21, 2011

The Telegraph does not much like Prince Andrew and his venal ways. The Duke of York receives a £249,000 annuity from the Queen.  Last year the prince spent £620,000 as a trade envoy, including £154,000 on hotels, food and hospitality and £465,000 on travel.

Randy Andy

First there was the sale of his home in Berkshire to Kazakhstan president’s billionaire son-in-law Timur Kulibayev, for £15 million: £3 million over the asking price, although there hadn’t been a single prospective buyer in three years. It now sits unoccupied and in mounting disrepair, suggesting that the property, curiously, isn’t particularly essential to Mr Kulibayev’s portfolio.

There is the Duke’s 16-year friendship with Jeffrey Epstein, an American billionaire who was jailed for 18 months in 2008 for soliciting under-age prostitutes. The Duke – who was snapped in 2001 with a cheery arm around Virginia Roberts, Epstein’s 17-year-old “masseuse” – was also photographed strolling in Central Park with Epstein last December, after the latter was released from jail. Shortly afterwards, Epstein stepped in to pay off £15,000 of the Duchess of York’s debts, a matter which the Duke had reportedly been finessing during the trip.

The Duke of York has been engulfed in a new “cash-for-favours” row after a close friend paid off £50,000 of his ex-wife’s debts. David Rowland, a financier once described as “shady” in Parliament, gave the sum to the Duchess of York’s former press spokesman Kate Waddington, whom the Duchess owed in the region of £85,000.

In May 2010, the Duchess of York, the Prince’s ex-wife, was filmed by a News of the World reporter claiming that Prince Andrew had agreed that if she were to receive £500,000, he, the Prince, would meet the donor and pass on useful top level business contacts. She was filmed receiving, in cash, $40,000 as a down payment. The Prince’s entourage denied he knew of the situation

It would seem that one part of his activities as the UK’s Trade envoy is soliciting money from rather dubious people for the repayment of his ex-wife’s debts. She is also not slow to sell access to him – for whatever it is worth. No doubt there is a point of view that for this scion of the House of Windsor to do his utmost to repay his ex-wife’s debts is an extremely honourable thing to do.

His elder brother and heir to the throne is the epitome of silliness and no great credit to his House either but at least he does not seem to be venal.

I think we are half way up now.

Neither up nor down

Oh, The grand old Duke of York,
He had ten thousand men;
He marched them up to the top of the hill,
And he marched them down again.

And when they were up, they were up,
And when they were down, they were down,
And when they were only half-way up,
They were neither up nor down.

Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant: Status as of Monday (21st) morning

March 21, 2011

Status of Fukushima Daiichi power station as of 09:00, March 21, 2011

Cooling continues and power is gradually being brought to all reactors. Systems and equipment are being checked. All units now have surface temperatures of less than 100 °C. Reactors # 5 and 6 have acieved “cold shutdown”.

External power reached the power-receiving facilities of the No. 2 and No. 5 reactors on Sunday.

The government is also preparing SDF tanks to remove radioactive rubble from around the reactors that has hampered operations as well as a truck with a concrete squeeze pump to pour water from a higher point.

Reactors # 5 and 6 have achieved the status of “cold shutdown”.

Developments at Fukushima Daiichi on March 21st

  • Injecting water to the spent fuel pool at unit 3 of Fukushima Daiichi by Tokyo Fire Department’s task force was finished at around 04:00 am this morning after 6.5 hours operation. Unit 3 has been sprayed with over 3,700 tons of water on Sunday and Monday.
  • Then, the Self-Defense Force conducted the operation of injecting water to the spent fuel pool at unit-4 from 06:37 am to 08:30 am this morning.
  • A construction company in Mie Prefecture voluntarily offers assistance for water injection at Fukushima Daiichi. The government emergency headquarters decided to accept the offer. The company’s 2 special vehicles and 3 operators departed last night to the site. The vehicles can inject water by using its 50-meter-long arm and pumps.
  • Ministry of Defense announced that the Self-Defense Force helicopter measured the surface temperatures of Fukushima Daiichi from the air and found that the temperature of all units are below 100 degrees C.
    • Unit 1: 58 ° C;
    • Unit 2: 35 ° C;
    • Unit 3: 62 °C;
    • Unit 4: 42 ° C;
    • Unit 5: 24 ° C;
    • Unit 6: 25 °C. (as of the afternoon on March 20)

Yesterday the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency reported that the pressure of the Reactor Containment Vessel at unit 3 of Fukushima Daiichi rose once (to 320 kPa as of 11:00 March 20th). TEPCO prepared to lower the pressure but concluded immediate pressure relief was not required. Monitoring the pressure continues (225 kPa as of 22:00 March 20).