January 19, 2011
In December NASA had reduced its forecasts for SC24 to a peak sunspot number of 64 being reached in June 2013. Now less than two months later, the latest forecast has been reduced again to a peak sunspot number of 59 to be reached in June / July 2013.
We find a starting time of May 2008 with minimum occurring in December 2008 and maximum of about 59 in June/July of 2013.
NASA SC24 forecast - January 2011: image NASA
At these levels the current Landscheidt minimum is comparable to SC5 and SC6 – the Dalton Minimum of 1790 to 1830 – where peak sunspot numbers were just over 50. (The earlier Maunder Minimum – 1645 to 1715- was before the modern period of sunspot number measurement and nominally was a period with no significant sunspots – presumably at sunspot numbers of less than 20 in today’s measurement values).
From my previous post:
It is not inconceivable that the SC24 will not peak till early 2014 and will only achieve peak sunspot numbers around 55. Solar cycle 24 could well have a length of 150+ months instead of the nominal 132 months.
The development of the NASA predictions are in the table below:
NASA Forecasts for SC24
| Date of
forecast |
Expected date
of peak |
Expected peak
sunspot number |
| March 2006 |
June 2010 |
168 |
| October 2008 |
March 2012 |
137 |
| January 2009 |
June 2012 |
104 |
| January 2010 |
June 2013 |
90 |
| December 2010 |
June 2013 |
64 |
| January 2011 |
June / July 2013 |
59 |
Related:
https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2010/12/23/is-the-landscheidt-minimum-a-precursor-for-a-grand-minimum/
Tags: Dalton minimum, Landscheidt Minimum, Maunder Minimum, NASA, SC24, SC5, SC6, Solar cycles
Posted in Science, Solar science | 1 Comment »
January 18, 2011
The growing inflation in India and China is a clear signal of overheating in their economies and Goldman Sachs (who are credited with inventing the term “BRIC”) are reducing their exposure to the BRIC countries.
The BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China)
The Telegraph reports:
Goldman Sachs has issued a short-term alert on China and India as inflation rears its ugly head, advising clients to rotate into Wall Street and Old World bourses as a safer bet over coming months.
“We’re not as tactically positive on the BRICs as we have been,” said Tim Moe, the bank’s chief Asia-Pacific strategist, referring to the quartet of Brazil, Russia, India, and China.
“To be frank, we may have held on too long to our overweight position in China last year. We have decided that discretion is the better part of valour and have tactically reduced our weight. Asia is not in the sweet part of the cycle. The longer-term picture of Asia outperforming the US is taking a breather,” he said, speaking at a Goldman conference in London.
The cooling ardour for China is significant shift for the bank that invented the term BRICs and has been the cheerleader of the emerging market story over the past decade.
India is an even bigger worry, with yawning twin deficits, and overheating visible on all fronts. The nation’s central bank warned this week of “surging inflation”.
“India’s current account deficit is running at a record pace of 4.1pc of GDP and it is 100pc funded by short-term portfolio flows, which cannot be relied on indefinitely,” said Mr Moe, describing Mumbai’s bourse as “crowded”.
Read more….
Tags: BRIC, China, Goldman Sachs, India, Inflation risk
Posted in China, Economy, India | Comments Off on Goldman Sachs cools on China and India
January 17, 2011
Paul the psychic octopus who shot to fame in the 2010 World Cup passed away last October. Now his former home is to erect a shrine in his honour.
Paul in action during the 2010 World Cup: image thelocal.de
Paul, a ‘psychic’ octopus who shot to fame last year for his ability to predict World Cup matches, will get a shrine three months after his untimely demise, his German aquarium said Monday.
The tentacled tipster will on Thursday be honoured with a “Paul Corner” at his former home, containing his ashes and a “huge memorial,” the Sea Life Centre in Oberhausen announced.
“There will be a statue around 1.80 metres high (six feet) of Paul, on top of a football, in the middle of which will be a see-through window with the golden urn containing Paul’s ashes,” spokeswoman Tanja Munzig told news agency AFP.
Paul thrilled punters and cost bookmakers a small fortune during the World Cup in South Africa in June and July by defying the odds to tip correctly seven German matches and Spain’s 1-0 triumph against the Netherlands in the final.
Tags: Paul the Octopus, Psychic octopus, Sea Life Centre, World Cup 2010
Posted in Football, Germany, Sport, World Cup | Comments Off on A shrine for Paul the psychic octopus
January 17, 2011
Most fatalities from earthquakes in the last 30 years can be linked to corruption in building practices and lack of building standards.
“While a 7.0 magnitude earthquake that struck in New Zealand in 2010 resulted in zero fatalities, an identical 2010 quake in Haiti resulted in a death toll reaching six figures”.
A new assessment of earthquake fatalities in Nature:
Nicholas Ambraseys, Roger Bilham. Corruption kills. Nature, 2011; 469 (7329): 153 DOI: 10.1038/469153a
Science Daily reports:
A new assessment of global earthquake fatalities over the past three decades indicates that 83 percent of all deaths caused by the collapse of buildings during earthquakes occurred in countries considered to be unusually corrupt.
Authored by Professor Nicholas Ambraseys of the Imperial College of London and Professor Roger Bilham of the University Colorado at Boulder, the study also found that in some relatively wealthy countries where knowledge and sound business practices would be expected to prevail, the collapse of many buildings is nevertheless attributable to corrupt building practices…… The authors determined that there is roughly a one-to-one relationship between a nations’ wealth and its perceived level of corruption. “Less wealthy nations are the most corrupt,” said Bilham, also a fellow in the CU-Boulder based Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences. “We found that fully 83 percent of all deaths from earthquakes in the last 30 years have occurred in nations where corruption is both widespread and worse than expected.”
Corrupt building practices — which are generally covert and hard to quantify — can include the use of substandard materials, poor assembly methods, the inappropriate placement of buildings and non-adherence to building codes, said the authors……
The poorest countries are the most corrupt, but some are more corrupt than others. A weighted regression line (dashed) divides nations that are perceived as more corrupt (below the line) than might be expected from the average income per capita.
……. The authors noted that while a 7.0 magnitude earthquake that struck in New Zealand in 2010 resulted in zero fatalities, an identical 2010 quake in Haiti resulted in a death toll reaching six figures. “Widespread anecdotal evidence points to the collapse of structures in devastating earthquakes as a result of corrupt building practices,” said Bilham. “In this study we have attempted to quantify that perception.
“Corruption is found to be far worse in some countries than others, despite a measure of wealth that tells us they should do better,” said Bilham. “It is in the countries that have abnormally high levels of corruption where we find most of the world’s deaths from earthquakes.”
The global construction industry, currently worth $7.5 trillion annually and which is expected to double in the next decade, is recognized by experts as being the most corrupt segment of the world economy, said the authors.
Since 1980, deaths due to an absence of effective earthquake engineering activity have averaged about 18,300 per year, according to the authors.
Tags: building codes, building practices, corruption, earthquake deaths
Posted in Corruption, Development, Natural Disasters | Comments Off on Earthquake deaths mainly due to corruption
January 17, 2011
Plagiarism has never been considered misconduct in the political arena. And it would seem it is not considered misconduct when purported science is used in a political or religious cause.
I posted earlier about how plagiarism is not plagiarism in the eyes of a journal editor when it is done in his own journal.
https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2010/12/31/ethics-of-journals-when-plagiarism-is-not-plagiarism/
Steve McIntyre reports on another case where science is subordinated to political and religious beliefs.
http://climateaudit.org/2011/01/16/trenberth-and-lifting-text-verbatim-2/
Apparently plagiarism is not plagiarism when carried out by Kevin Trenberth in support of his religious beliefs. But the actions reported here to hastily introduce attributions wherever plagiarism had been detected, suggest that Trenberth realises that if his scientific misconduct is shown then his religious positions are undermined and discredited.
Tags: Academic Dishonesty, Kevin Trenberth, Plagiarism, Steve McIntyre
Posted in Alarmism, Behaviour, Ethics, Science, scientific misconduct | Comments Off on When plagiarism is not plagiarism : part 2
January 17, 2011
The Krasin: Image via Wikipedia
The rescue of the ships trapped by ice in the Sea of Okhotsk has been completed. A tour de force at temperatures as low as – 27°C by the three ice breakers, Magadan, Admiral Makarov and Krasin. The Krasin joined last and was the star of the show.
Richard North has been following and anticipating the story and a more complete description of this admirable rescue is available here.
This morning from Ria Novosti:
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20110117/162171301.html
07:04 17/01/2011The Krasin and Admiral Makarov icebreakers have managed to take the Sodruzhestvo mother fishery ship and the Bereg Nadezhdy refrigerator vessel out of thick ice in the Sea of Okhotsk, the Far Eastern Shipping Company said Monday.
“The icebreakers first towed the mother ship to a safer area, and then returned for the Bereg Nadezdy, which they took to thinner ice,” company spokeswoman Tatyana Kulikova said.
The Bereg Nadezhdy ship, the Professor Kizevetter research vessel, and the Sodruzhestvo mother fishery ship, carrying altogether over 400 people, got stuck in two-meter-thick ice in the Sea of Okhotsk on December 31. Two other ships, the Mys Yelizavety and the Anton Gurin, became trapped a few days later.
The Admiral Makarov released the Professor Kizevetter and the Mys Yelizavety vessels from the ice trap, while the Anton Gurin managed to cope on its own.
Then the operation to rescue the Bereg Nadezhdy started, but the two icebreakers changed their plans, returning to the Sodruzhestvo vessel, which was the hardest to tow due to its wide body. Towing ropes snapped soon after the start of the operation, which resumed next day.
The rescue effort has been hampered by strong winds, low visibility and shifting ice floes in the area.
Tags: Admiral Makarov, ice rescue, icebreakers, Krasin, Magadan, Sea of Okhotsk
Posted in Engineering, Environment, Russia, Technology, Weather | 2 Comments »
January 16, 2011
Last year 890, 000 cars hit Beijing’s streets contributing to the city’s legendary gridlock and traffic emissions.
Gridlock in Beijing: image care2.com
From 1st January this year a lottery for number plates will provide only 20,000 winners each month restricting sales of both new and second-hand cars in the city to 240,000 this year. 210,000 people have applied for the 20,000 licenses available for January. Winners must buy a car within six months. Losers in this month’s lottery will be included in next month’s drawing along with all new applicants.
CRIenglish reports:
Car dealerships in Beijing may opt to shift their focus on boosting sales to neighboring cities after the municipal government imposed an annual quota on new car license plates as part of efforts to ease traffic gridlock in the capital city.
Some car dealerships, especially of domestic brands, are making plans to expand sales to areas outside Beijing where the policy restriction does not apply, the China Business Times reported. The new limit means buyers will favor high-end and luxury types of cars once they obtain the hard-to-get licenses. Domestic brands and small cars, which sell mostly at below 100,000 yuan, will see lower sales in Beijing, the newspaper article said.
The policy stipulates that buyers of secondhand cars must go through the monthly lottery system to obtain a license and sellers of used cars will see their license annulled in a year if they make no new purchases. That puts dealers of both new and used cars to compete in the same arena for the annual 240,000 new car license plates.
The combined factors have driven many companies to stock up cars, including used cars, in preparation for the coming hike in rental businesses. Car dealerships are tapping into this market, putting types of cars idling for sale ready for renting….. Meanwhile, industry experts predict the big automakers will likely adapt by focusing more on smaller cities further inland, the China Daily quoted Zhong Shi, an independent analyst in Beijing as saying.
“The best and most efficient way for automakers to offset the declining sales in Beijing and maybe other first-tier cities in the near future is to shift rapidly their dealer network expansion inland,” said Zhong.
Besides easing traffic jams, the new policy will help address serious air pollution problems in the Chinese capital city. Car emissions account for around 50 percent of the air pollution in Beijing.
Tags: Beijing, car sales reduction, number plate lottery, Traffic congestion
Posted in Behaviour, China, Development, Urban Living | Comments Off on Beijing introduces number plate lottery to cut car sales by 75%
January 16, 2011
A new paper in Science giving ocean currents in the Atlantic their due (and without finding it necessary to appeal to tales of carbon dioxide). Perhaps the science is not so settled after all!
The five major ocean-wide gyres — the North Atlantic, South Atlantic, North Pacific, South Pacific, and Indian Ocean gyres. Each is flanked by a strong and narrow “western boundary current,” and a weak and broad “eastern boundary current”: Wikimedia
The Deglacial Evolution of North Atlantic Deep Convection. by D. J. R. Thornalley, S. Barker, W. S. Broecker, H. Elderfield, I. N. McCave. Science, 2011; 331 (6014): 202 DOI: 10.1126/science.1196812
Science Daily reports:
… Scientists have long suspected that far more severe and longer-lasting cold intervals have been caused by changes to the circulation of the warm Atlantic ocean currents themselves.
Now new research led by Cardiff University, with scientists in the UK and US, reveals that these ocean circulation changes may have been more dramatic than previously thought. The findings, published January 14, 2011 in the journal Science, show that as the last Ice Age came to an end (10,000 — 20,000 years ago) the formation of deep water in the North-East Atlantic repeatedly switched on and off. This caused the climate to warm and cool for centuries at a time.
The circulation of the world’s ocean helps to regulate the global climate. One way it does this is through the transport of heat carried by vast ocean currents, which together form the ‘Great ocean conveyor’. Key to this conveyor is the sinking of water in the North-East Atlantic, a process that causes warm tropical waters to flow northwards in order to replace the sinking water. Europe is kept warmer by this circulation, so that a strong reduction in the rate at which deep water forms can cause widespread cooling of up to 10 degrees Celsius. ….. The new results suggest that the Atlantic ocean is capable of radical changes in how it circulates on time scales as short as a few decades.
Dr Thornalley said: “These insights highlight just how dynamic and sensitive ocean circulation can be. Whilst the circulation of the modern ocean is probably much more stable than it was at the end of the last Ice Age, and therefore much less likely to undergo such dramatic changes, it is important that we keep developing our understanding of the climate system and how it responds when given a push.”
Paper Abstract:
Deepwater formation in the North Atlantic by open-ocean convection is an essential component of the overturning circulation of the Atlantic Ocean, which helps regulate global climate. We use water-column radiocarbon reconstructions to examine changes in northeast Atlantic convection since the Last Glacial Maximum. During cold intervals, we infer a reduction in open-ocean convection and an associated incursion of an extremely radiocarbon (14C)–depleted water mass, interpreted to be Antarctic Intermediate Water. Comparing the timing of deep convection changes in the northeast and northwest Atlantic, we suggest that, despite a strong control on Greenland temperature by northeast Atlantic convection, reduced open-ocean convection in both the northwest and northeast Atlantic is necessary to account for contemporaneous perturbations in atmospheric circulation.
Tags: Atlantic Ocean, global cooling, global warming, ice ages, Last glacial period, Ocean currents
Posted in Climate, Geosciences, Oceans, Science, Weather | 1 Comment »
January 15, 2011
Image via Wikipedia
This is good news!
New studies have found that specific properties of blueberries may help reduce the risks of developing high blood pressure. Blueberries contain high concentrations of anthocyanins and are very antioxidant rich. Anthocyanins are very dark in color, usually blue, purple or dark red. Other foods with similar antioxidant qualities are red wine, chocolate, tea, vegetables, and some grains.
For the study, scientists fromHarvard University analyzed information of about 135,000 women and nearly 50,000 men. Individuals were followed for 14 years and were asked to complete health surveys every two years. Each person also had their diet analyzed every four years. None of the individuals experienced hypertension at the start of the research period.
During the study, about 35,000 individuals became hypertensive. Researchers found that individuals consuming a large amount of food containing anthocyanins noticed an 8 percent lower risk of developing hypertension than those who consumed very little. Additionally, people under the age of 60 noticed the most benefit from these antioxidants.
For this study, blueberries appeared to be more effective than strawberries for preventing hypertension.
Red wine followed by dark chocolate and a good helping of blueberries – is something I can live with.
Tags: Anthocyanin, Blueberry, chocolate, Hypertension, wine
Posted in Food, Medicine | Comments Off on Blueberries and chocolates keep blood pressure in check !
January 15, 2011
Itar-Tass reports.
MOSCOW, January 14 (Itar-Tass) — The Admiral Makarov and Krasin icebreakers, which are leading the Sodruzhestvo mother ship out of an ice trap in the Sea of Okhotsk, have reached the drifting refrigerator ship Bereg Nadezhdy, a source at the Transport Ministry told Itar-Tass.
“The convoy of the Admiral Makarov, the Krasin and the Sodruzhestvo reached the drifting Bereg Nadezhdy at 10:30 a.m. Moscow time on Friday,” he said.
The Admiral Makarov cleared a two-mile strip in the afternoon and returned to the convoy. “The coordinating staff led by Deputy Transport Minister Viktor Olersky is analyzing weather and ice conditions for elaborating the tactics of the further operation,” the source said.
The ships need to cross the ice for meeting with the Magadan icebreaker and the Victoria tanker.
A number of ships trapped in the ice in the Sea of Okhotsk, among them the Sodruzhestvo, the Bereg Nadezhdy, the Professor Kizevetter research ship and the Mys Yelizavety trawler, asked for help on December 31, 2010. Two vessels were taken to a safe area.
It is yet unknown when the rescue of the Sodruzhestvo and the Bereg Nadezhdy may be over, as weathermen have a bad forecast for about one week.
Tags: Icebreaker Admiral Makarov, Krasin, Magadan, Sea of Okhotsk, Sodruzhestvo
Posted in Engineering, Environment, Russia, Technology, Weather | 1 Comment »
