“Not inconsistent with man-made global warming” !!

January 15, 2011

Climate Science – if there is such a thing – had long ago abandoned science to become a lobby for “global warming theory”. But the “scientists” are plumbing new depths.

It has not taken long for “climate scientists” to claim that all extreme weather events (heat wave in Russia, floods in Pakistan, coldest December in 100 years , droughts in Australia and now floods in Brazil and Australia)  are all “not inconsistent with global warming” implying by some strange, convoluted logic that all these weather events (which are also consistent with history repeating itself) somehow add to the body of “evidence” which “proves” that man-made global warming is happening. There have even been crack-pot scientists with such a vested interest in the “man-made global warming” ideology  who have found it possible to blame volcanic activity and even the earthquake in Haiti on “global warming”!!!

The current strength of the La Ninã conditions are perfectly consistent with other theories based on ocean variation and the frigid winters are quite consistent with the quiet Sun (which went spotless again yesterday). All current weather is also consistent with man-made effects being totally negligible and instead being dominated by the sun’s cycles and with the oceans as the primary vehicle for transporting heat around the globe. Weather is not climate and in fact none of the “extreme” weather events  are outside the range of weather variations that have been experienced over the last 1000 years.

The floods in Brazil have claimed over 500 lives and in Australia – which is far better prepared – the death toll will likely be between 20 – 30. In Australia where a higher flood occurred in 1974 in Brisbane voices are beginning to be raised that the “global warming” lobby have actually prevented the use of dams and implementation of proposed water management policies which could have been able to better manage these regular and recurring flood conditions.

The history of floods in Brisbane is telling:

Highest annual flood peaks for Brisbane

Highest annual flood peaks for Brisbane

The floods this year in Queensland are nothing new. Why would this flood be evidence of man-made global warming but not the floods of the 1800s? In fact the history of these weather conditions in Brisbane is not inconsistent with global cooling, the coming of an ice-age or an apocalyptic end to the earth in 2012!

thepunch.com.au

Any scientist who is concerned with science and not with religion, politics or defending his past conclusions would know that being “not inconsistent” with some theory carries no weight in a scientific proof – but it does sound so credible in a TV sound-bite.

But we can expect that over the next few years that every natural disaster or extreme weather event will be taken by the members of a dying religion as being “not inconsistent with” and therefore as proof of man-made global warming.

 

Current La Niña most intense in 50 years

January 14, 2011

La Niña is expected to continue well into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011.

The latest report from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) noted that “A moderate-to-strong La Niña continued during December 2010 as reflected by well below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.” The CPC report said that La Niña is expected to continue well into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011.

Physorg reports:

New NASA satellite data indicate the current La Niña event in the eastern Pacific has remained strong during November and December 2010.

The La Niña is evident by the large pool cooler than normal (blue and purple) water stretching from the eastern to the central Pacific Ocean, reflecting lower than normal sea surface heights. "This La Niña has strengthened for the past seven months, and is one of the most intense events of the past half century," said Climatologist Bill Patzert of NASA JPL. Credit: NASA JPL/Bill Patzert

A new Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM)/Jason-2 satellite image of the Pacific Ocean that averaged 10 days of data was just released fromNASA. The image, centered on Dec. 26, 2010, was created at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Pasadena, Calif.

“The solid record of La Niña strength only goes back about 50 years and this latest event appears to be one of the strongest ones over this time period,” said Climatologist Bill Patzert of JPL. “It is already impacting weather and climate all around the planet.”

“Although exacerbated by precipitation from a tropical cyclone, rainfalls of historic proportion in eastern Queensland, Australia have led to levels of flooding usually only seen once in a century,” said David Adamec, Oceanographer at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. “The copious rainfall is a direct result of La Niña’s effect on the Pacific trade winds and has made tropical Australia particularly rainy this year.”

The new image depicts places where the Pacific sea surface height is near-normal, higher (warmer) than normal and lower (cooler) than normal. The cooler-than normal pool of water that stretches from the eastern to the central Pacific Ocean is a hallmark of a La Niña event.

Related: https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2011/01/12/la-nina-driving-severe-rains-and-floods-in-brazil-and-australia/

 

Mt. Etna bursts into life

January 14, 2011

The European Space Agency reports:

Sulphur dioxide plume over Mediterranean

This image, which was acquired by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on NASA's EOS-AQUA satellite, shows the plume of sulphur dioxide currently being carried over the Mediterranean Sea. Credits: NASA, Norwegian Institute for Air Research

13 January 2011


Europe’s largest active volcano, Mount Etna on the Italian island of Sicily, erupted briefly yesterday sending flames and ash hundreds of metres into the air.

This image, which was acquired by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder on NASA’s EOS-AQUA satellite, shows the plume of sulphur dioxide currently being carried over the Mediterranean Sea.

The data have been processed by the Norwegian Institute for Air Research within the framework of ESA’s Data User Element and can be used to warn aviation companies on the hazardous plume.

File:Mount Etna snow-toppd.jpg

Mount Etna, Sicily, topped in snow 5 February 2009: image Wikimedia

Sea of Okhotsk rescue operations restarted

January 14, 2011
Depths

Depths in Sea of Okhotsk: Image via Wikipedia

The suspended rescue operation of the trapped ships in the Sea of Okhotsk has restarted and is progressing slowly in deteriorating weather and increasing ice.

From Ria Novosti:07:45 14/01/2011

Russia’s Krasin and Admiral Makarov icebreakers continue to lead the Sodruzhestvo mother fishery ship through thick ice floe to clear waters, the Far Eastern Shipping Company said Friday.

The fishing ship with about 300 people on board has been stranded in heavy ice in the Sea of Okhotsk for two weeks. The Admiral Makarov and Krasin started towing the vessel on Wednesday afternoon, but towing ropes snapped soon after the start of the operation. The rescue resumed on Thursday morning.

“The convoy has covered 17 miles since the beginning of the rescue operation, and will reach the Bereg Nadezdy refrigerator ship after another eight miles,” spokeswoman Tatyana Kulikova said. “After the meeting with the refrigerator, they will face a very difficult stretch of ice floe before reaching clear waters.”

According to the rescue plan, the icebreakers will continue towing the Sodruzhestvo, while the Bereg Nadezhdy will attempt to sail on its own along the channel cut in the ice by Admiral Makarov and Krasin.

The weather conditions in the area continue to deteriorate rapidly. Strong winds, low visibility and shifting ice floes hamper the rescue effort, the spokeswoman said.

Photographs from the Sea of Okhotsk can be seen here:

http://en.rian.ru/photolents/20110111/162101793.html

and here:

http://english.ruvr.ru/photoalbum/39338590/39338722/index.html

Related: https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2011/01/03/unusually-thick-ice-traps-ships-in-the-sea-of-okhotsk/

https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2011/01/11/sea-of-okhotsk-rescue-update-tartar-straits-frozen-to-the-bottom/

No food crisis in sight: World can feed its 9 billion in 2050

January 13, 2011
Smaller cropped version, made for Template:Agr...

Image via Wikipedia

Doomsday proponents will not like this new on-line publication in Nature and are already beginning to object. But I see no resource or food crunch that cannot be addressed by human ingenuity and the development of technology.

Paillard, S., Treyer, S. & Dorin, B. Agrimonde: Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World in 2050 (Editions Quae, 2011) doi:10.1038/news.2011.14

From Nature News:

Future of food could be bright: French agencies’ study punctures assumptions about the state of global agriculture.

The world will be able to feed the predicted 2050 population of nine billion people, according to two French agricultural research organizations. In a joint report published today, they lay out findings gleaned from 2006 to 2008 that could overturn some current assumptions about the state of global farming.

The report, titledAgrimonde, is published by the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA) and the Centre for International Cooperation in Agronomic Research for Development (CIRAD), both headquartered in Paris. It contains some surprise findings on Africa and other regions — the latest results from an ongoing study by the two research agencies.

Agricultural productivity in Africa doubled between 1961 and 2003 — a finding that overturns most assumptions “and is one of the most surprising results of our work”, Patrick Caron, CIRAD’s director-general for research and strategy, told reporters last night.

African productivity remains the lowest in the world, however, averaging 10,000 kilocalories per hectare (kcal ha–1) compared with 20,000 kcal ha–1 globally and 25,000 kcal ha–1 in Asia. Productivity elsewhere doubled or tripled over the same period.

Asia scored higher on productivity than in other studies, because the agencies looked at aggregate rather than independent annual yields of wheat, rice and other crops, explains Bruno Dorin, an economist at CIRAD and one of the report’s authors. “In Asia, the wheat yield may be lower, but if you take account of rice and other crops grown in the same year, the total yield is higher,” he says.

Another finding to emerge is that major reserves of potential farmland exist across the globe, especially in Africa and Latin America, Dorin says. “The 1.5 billion hectares of land now cultivated could be increased to 4 billion, but this would of course be at the expense of pastures and forests, which are a reservoir of biodiversity and carbon,” he adds.

Read the original article:

http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110112/full/news.2011.14.html


Solid demand for bond issues by Spain, Portugal and Italy boost Euro

January 13, 2011
The euro sign; logotype and handwritten.

Image via Wikipedia

The countries are considered among those dragging down the Eurozone but strong demand for Portugese bonds on Wednesday was followed by solid demand for those issued by Spain and Italy today. Earlier this week both Japan and China had pledged to buy the bonds in Europe. Both countries have large cash reserves and are probably attracted by the higher yields but are also making a political statement in supporting the Eurozone. China is on a charm offensive and wishes to be seen to be reaching out to Greece and Portugal.

BBC:

Spain has raised 3bn euros ($3.9bn; £2.5bn) in an auction of five-year government bonds. The average yield on the bonds was 4.542%, which was nearly one percentage point higher than the rate reached in the last auction in November. However, analysts had feared the yield would be even higher.

The debt sale, which follows a similar auction by Portugal on Wednesday, is soothing fears over the eurozone’s ability to service its debts. Michael Lister, strategist at West LB in Dusseldorf, said: “The figures look really good, it’s the perfect sequel to the Portugal auction yesterday.”

Wall Street Journal:

The Hong Kong dollar rose against the U.S. dollar Thursday as a successful bond auction in Portugal helped ease concerns about the euro zone’s debt problems, encouraging investors to shift funds from the U.S. currency to riskier assets.

Traders said gains in the local stock market will continue to boost demand for the Hong Kong dollar. They said they expect the U.S. dollar to trade between HK$7.7720 and HK$7.7780 Friday.

“Portugal’s bond auction temporarily eased concerns over European debt. Also, the U.S. dollar isn’t likely rise sharply ahead of (Chinese) President Hu Jintao’s visit to the U.S. next week,” said a senior trader at a Chinese bank. Hu plans to meet U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington on Jan. 19.

The Portuguese government sold EUR1.25 billion worth of bonds in an auction overnight, offering good news to investors worried an unsuccessful bond sale could signal tougher austerity measures in parts of the euro zone.

Financial Times:

Spain and Italy on Thursday followed Portugal by holding successful bond auctions, providing a glimmer of optimism in the eurozone debt crisis. Italy sold €6bn of five-year and 15-year debt while Spain issued €3bn in five-year bonds, but both countries were forced to pay higher interest rates than in previous auctions.

The three successful auctions this week from peripheral eurozone countries provide a small amount of breathing room in the crisis. But the elevated yields paid by all of them and their high funding needs mean that investors are still waiting for decisive action from European policymakers.

Italy sold €3bn of 15-year bonds at a yield of 5.06 per cent, up from 4.81 per cent at a previous auction in November. Likewise, the yield on €3bn of five-year debt rose from 3.24 per cent two months ago to 3.67 per cent. Both auctions were fully covered. Spain paid almost a percentage point more than it did in November with a five-year yield of 4.54 per cent.

Sea of Okhotsk rescue attempt suspended

January 13, 2011

In worsening weather the first attempts to tow the trapped Sodruzhestvo mother ship clear of the ice by the icebrakers Krasin and Admiral Makarov have had to be suspended when towing lines broke.

From Voice of Russia:

Sea of Okhotsk rescue: image Ria Novosti

The operation to tow the ice-locked mother ship Sodruzhestvo (Commonwealth) in the Okhotsk Sea to clear water has been suspended due to a rupture of the tow rope. This operation was being carried out by icebreakers “Krasin” and “Admiral Makarov”.

A mile and a half after the start of the towing the cables broke, their attaching mechanisms were damaged. Today they are undergoing repairs on the “Commonwealth” and “Admiral Makarov”.

Throughout the night icebreaker “Krasin” was clearing a passageway for the caravan of vessels. Today it shall continue this work.

At least one woman required to be brought for every 4 men! – WEF Davos

January 13, 2011
DAVOS/SWITZERLAND, 17JAN08 - Aerial Photo of D...

Hotel Steigenberger, Davos: Image via Wikipedia

The World Economic Forum is requiring its strategic partners to bring along at least one woman in every group of five.

I am not sure whether this is a blow for or against gender equality. Coming as it does from the World Economic Forum for the meeting in Davos to be held in 2 weeks, I suspect that it is primarily about having a good time rather than about gender equality!!

From The Guardian:

Each year, prime ministers, bankers, business tycoons and other movers and shakers of the global elite gather at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in the Swiss Alpine town of Davos. And each year, one key thing has been missing: women.

Now, in an attempt to improve the traditionally dismal gender balance at this month’s event, which starts a week next Tuesday, the WEF has for the first time imposed a minimum quota of women.

The forum’s “strategic partners” – a group of about 100 companies including Barclays, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank – have been told they must bring along at least one woman in every group of five senior executives sent to the high-profile event. Strategic partners account for 500 of the 2,500 participants expected this year at a gathering where David Cameron will rub shoulders with the Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, historian Niall Ferguson, UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon, at least one member of the Saudi royal family and countless business supremos and members of the academic elite.

“The World Economic Forum annual meeting engages the highest levels of leadership from a variety of sectors and participation figures are a reflection of the scarcity of women in this external pool,” said Saadia Zahidi, who heads the gender parity programme at the WEF and came up with the quota plan.

At Davos, the world’s most powerful men (and a few women) broker multimillion-pound deals behind the scenes of the conferences. The forum’s black-tie dinners, cocktail parties and other less formal encounters are the ultimate networking events and those present follow the old “contacts lead to contracts” motto.

But so far, relatively few women have benefited from this high-level schmoozing. Women made up only 9-15% of those present between 2001 and 2005.


Penguin rings of death in the name of research

January 13, 2011

A new paper on-line in Nature today reports a 10 year study which shows that when researchers’ put flipper bands on the birds they can seriously dent penguin survival, and also skew the results of research.

Saraux, C. et al. Nature 469, 203-206 (2011)

Nature News:

banded penguins

Flipper banding has been found to hurt penguins: image Benoît Gineste

Attaching bands to penguins’ flippers makes them easier for scientists to study, but may also up the birds’ death rates and lower their chances of reproducing. A team studying king penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) has rekindled this debate, which has been running for more than 30 years, and thrown up an additional concern. Not only do bands placed around the birds’ flippers make life more difficult for penguins, their effects also undermine the conclusions drawn from such studies.

Yvon Le Maho at the University of Strasbourg in France, an author of the current study, published in Nature, says that the time has come for ecologists to embrace new technologies and abandon flipper bands, “certainly as a precautionary principle”.

His group’s paper also highlights a wider issue: studies on penguins can and are being used to look at the effects of climate change on ecosystems. Le Maho and colleagues have previously used electronic tagging of king penguins to show that just 0.26 ºC of warming in sea-surface temperatures could trigger a 9% decline in adult survival. If banding were used in such studies, its consequences on a population could cripple attempts to extrapolate a climate-linked trend from the data.

“It’s very difficult to anticipate what the consequences are,” Le Maho says. He says there is a problem with warming affecting ecosystems, but “the numbers have to be reconsidered” where they have been derived from banded studies…..

As long ago as the 1970s, zookeepers noticed that bands could cause wounds on penguins, especially when the birds were moulting……. Despite these findings, bands are still widely used. Le Maho and his colleagues have now added to the debate with their 10-year study. They banded 50 king penguins selected from a population on Possession Island in the southern Indian Ocean that had already been implanted with minute, subcutaneous electronic tags.

When compared with 50 unbanded birds, those fitted with bands had around 40% fewer chicks and a 16% lower survival rate over the study period.

ScienceNews also reports on the study:

And in another worrisome development, the flipper-banded penguins averaged 12.7 days away from home on foraging trips instead of 11.6. “One day or two days is a huge difference,” says ecologist and study coauthor Claire Saraux of the University of Strasbourg and France’s CNRS research network. Chicks back at the breeding site eat only when a parent swims home with food collected hundreds of kilometers, sometimes thousands of kilometers, away. And young chicks have to build up reserves to survive their first winter, when parental food delivery drops off to only a few times during the whole season.

Slower foraging fits with worries that flipper bands may be increasing drag on penguins during swimming, Saraux says. In a swimming test in a tank, an Adélie penguin wearing a band expended 24 percent more energy than an unbanded penguin.

“From an ethical point of view, I think we can’t continue to band,” Saraux says.


La Niña driving severe rains and floods in Brazil and Australia

January 12, 2011

The La Niña event established this year is particularly intense and maybe the most severe in a 100 years. Such events are known to give warm sea surface temperatures and greater evaporation giving heavy rains in the Western Pacific in Australia, less rain in the Eastern Pacific on the western coast of S. America (coastal Chile and Peru) but increased rain on the east coast in southern Brazil and  northern Argentina.

Yesterday, heavy rainfall and floods in Brazil  claimed 80 lives.

UPDATE!! This morning the death toll is reported to be over 250.

UPDATE 2!! 13th January: Now death toll is around 400.

BBC:

More than 80 people have died in towns near Rio de Janeiro as heavy rains continue to cause flooding and mudslides in south-eastern Brazil. Overnight downpours triggered landslides in the mountain town of Teresopolis, where more than 50 were reported to have died. At least three firefighters were among several people buried in mudslides in Nova Friburgo.

Brazil has seen severe flooding this year which has left thousands homeless.

The death toll is expected to climb as rescuers reach remote villages in the mountains. One report, compiling official and media figures, put the toll so far at 93.

This week, torrential rains in neighbouring Sao Paulo state left 13 people dead and brought traffic chaos to Brazil’s biggest city. In Teresopolis, 100km (62 miles) north of Rio Janeiro, a river burst its banks, submerging buildings, while the rainfall set off several mudslides.

The rains and floods in Queensland have claimed 13 lives so far but the peak in Brisbane a few hours ago was fortunately about 1 m lower than in the 1974 floods. Nevertheless many thousands of homes have been inundated and the damage to Queensland industry and agriculture is severe. The final death toll is likely to be higher since it is feared that some bodies will only be discovered after the waters recede. Now heavy rain and flash floods have hit Victoria as well.

The Guardian:

The devastating flooding in Queensland is the result of Australia being in the grip of an unusually strong “La Niña”, a periodic climate phenomenon that brings more rain to the western Pacific, and less to South America along the eastern Pacific.

“The Queensland floods are caused by what is one of the strongest – if not the strongest – La Niña events since our records began in the late 19th century,” said Prof Neville Nicholls at Monash University and president of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. “The La Niña is associated with record warm sea-surface temperatures around Australia and these would have contributed to the heavy rains.” Warmer oceans produce damper air and hence more rain. This is driven onshore by the stronger east-to-west trade winds characteristic of La Niña.

In both Australia and S. America the rains have about another 2 months to run.

related posts:

June 2010 – https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2010/06/26/high-probability-of-la-nina/

October 2010 – https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2010/10/25/la-nina-strengthens-further/