US: Polar bears are “threatened” but not “endangered”

December 23, 2010
Polar Bear (Sow And Cub), Arctic National Wild...

Polar Bear (Sow And Cub), Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska: Image via Wikipedia

In spite of a great deal of PR from alarmist and global warming lobbies in the past week, the US has decided not to change the status of polar bears from “threatened” to “endangered”.

From the Washington Post:

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service told a U.S. District Court judge Wednesday that the threatened designation will not change because polar bears were not considered to be in danger of extinction at the time of the listing in 2008.

“The Service explained how its biologists had concluded in 2008 that the polar bear was not facing sudden and catastrophic threats [and] was still a widespread species that had not been restricted to a critically small range or critically low numbers,” the agency said in a statement.

Kassie Siegel, director of the Climate Law Institute at the Center for Biological Diversity, called the administration’s decision “a huge disappointment.” Arctic ice, the bears’ hunting ground, is melting and bears are starving to death, she said.

“It’s a wasted opportunity to do the right thing,” Siegel said. “The government’s own studies show about an 80 percent chance of extinction of two-thirds of the world’s polar bears in the next 40 years.”

AS WUWT reports

Some enironmentalists heads are exploding right about now. This pretty well slams the door on the polar bears threatened by global warming meme. Now we know why there was a flurry of questionable press releases this past week like these:

Polar bears no longer on ‘thin ice’: researchers say polar bears could face brighter future: a combination of greenhouse gas mitigation and control of adverse human activities in the Arctic can lead to a more promising future for polar bear populations and their sea ice habitat

Polar bears: On thin ice? Extinction can be averted, scientists say
Cutting greenhouse gases now is the key

Polar bears still on thin ice, but cutting greenhouse gases now can avert extinction

or as the BBC puts it

Polar bears not endangered, US confirms

Is the Landscheidt minimum a precursor for a grand minimum?

December 23, 2010

It took 500 years with reducing solar activity to get from the Medieval maximum to the the grand Maunder minimum. The Dalton minimum came a little over a 100 years later as solar activity was increasing to its modern maximum in the years preceding Solar Cycle 22 (c. 1890 – 1990). Now with the Landscheidt minimum seemingly well established, SC 23 and the current SC 24 show a clear trend of declining solar activity. SC’s 22, 23 and 24 are remarkably similar to SC’s 3, 4 and 5. The Dalton minimum coincided with SC’s 5 and 6.

It is reasonable to assume that climatic conditions over the next 20 – 30 years will resemble those prevailing between 1790 and 1820. But SC24 has a way to go yet and it could be that solar activity for SC24 and 25 will be even lower than during the Dalton minimum and perhaps closer to the Spörer minimum but perhaps not as deep as the Maunder minimum.

But in either case the solar activity to come following the Modern maximum may well resemble the 500 years of decline in solar activity which followed the Medieval maximum.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dalton_Minimum

Solar activity events recorded in radiocarbon. Present period is on left. Values since 1950 not shown: Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum

The Maunder minimum in a 400 year history of sunspot numbers: Wikipedia

http://sc25.com/index.php?id=268&linkbox=true&position=10

Image Attachment

The excellent historical weather chronology covering 1800 years put together by James A Marusek shows that the period between 1790 and 1820 was characterised not only by colder weather but also by violent fluctuations of seasonal weather. An extract of the chronology during the Dalton minimum is here: (weather chronology Dalton).

I give little credence to AGW Alarmism and the doom-saying regarding the effects of carbon dioxide. Environmentalism which was (and still is) highly admirable when concerned with the improvement of local conditions went off the rails when it went “global” and came to be dominated by the overweening arrogance of ignoring the sun and the presumption of super-computers and inadequate computer models.  Rather I am persuaded about the dominance of solar influences on the chaotic system which is our climate.

Whether or not a grand solar minimum is on its way, we are in for a decade of two of reduced activity and a cooling trend during this Landscheidt minimum.

Piers Corbyn forecasts a 3rd solar-influenced wave of snow in UK

December 23, 2010

 

Reproduced from Climate Realists.com:
Image Attachment

A THIRD period of “Solar Climate Change” on the UK will take place from Christmas Day to the End of December, this comes right after the first & second periods correctly predicted by WeatherAction.com & Piers Corbyn

The forecast made in November says….Snow deluges and blizzards in most of England and Wales, heaviest in East parts. Snow showers in Scotland. Sleet/rain and less cold in far West Ireland.

This “triple hit” of “Solar Climate Change” announced to WeatherAction.com users in November, means that the UK will go on to complete the “worst ever” December for High street retailers and business with the lack of essential public service due to road/rail/airport closures and again bring the country to it’s knees, and with “road salt” running out fast this “third” wave will take it’s toll on the “holiday” work force.

This is likely to add to one of the worst if not THE worst period of disruption in the UK to have been seen in modern times.

I will repeat what was said on the previous statement as this will still apply….

There are potential “life threatening” conditions that will be underestimated by the media (inc. Met Office).

With the aid of this forecast we hope to give some advance warning to those of you who are already suffering hardship and warn you of a very real risk of further and even bigger snow storms and blizzard conditions set for Scotland & England and Eastern Europe.

Please spread news of this forecast to all of those who are vulnerable and try to ensure that food supplies are sufficient to cope with this impending crisis.

 

Arman Jaffer – a successor to Tendulkar?

December 23, 2010

From the Mumbai Mirror:

Arman Jaffer: image Mumbai Mirror

Arman Jaffer etched his name in the record books by scoring an incredible 498 runs against IES Raje Shivaji in the Giles Shield. The youngster, who plays for Rizvi Springfield, helped his team reach 800 for eight in the process but yesterday was all about him as he became the holder of the highest individual score in Mumbai schools cricket. The ease with which the 13-year-old batted revealed an instinct that cannot be coached. Perhaps the fact that he is former India opener Wasim Jaffer’s nephew has started to show. The Rizvi batsman broke his teammate Sarfaraz Khan’s record of 439 runs which was recorded in last year’s Harris Shield.

 

Sachin Tendulkar started his phenomenal Test career at the age of 16, so Arman has another 3 years to emulate his hero and get into the Indian Test team.

High corruption at the Commonwealth games spawns tales of conspiracies

December 22, 2010

Today came the startling news that two inmates serving life sentences at Delhi’s notorious Tihar jail claim that the jail authorities gave them weapons to kill 2 of the 3 members of the Commonwealth Games Organising Committee currently being held at the jail on corruption charges.

Tihar Jail

The Hindustan Times reports:

Two inmates serving life sentences at Tihar Jail have claimed that the prison authorities gave them weapons to murder two former senior officials of the Commonwealth Games (CWG) lodged in the prison with them. In an application to chief metropolitan magistrate (CMM) Vinod Yadav, Amit and Nishant who are facing trial in a murder case, have said, “The jail authorities inside jail number 4 and ward number 11 approached us with weapons on December 20, 2010, and asked us to murder the two Commonwealth Games officials lodged in the jail with us.”  On personally meeting the judge, the inmates identified the officials as TS Darbari and Sanjay Mahendroo, who are lodged in Tihar following corruption charges.

Their application stated, “The jail officials threatened us with dire consequences if we do not comply with their orders. We are also receiving threats to our life inside the jail premises.” Amit’s mother Munni Devi has also filed an application in the magistrate’s court claiming her son and Pawan were being threatened inside the jail.

The application also claimed that a Delhi police official, who had come to the prison on Monday, recovered the knife from their cell. But they have not identified the officer before the magistrate. “The country-made pistol that was given to us was displaced by the jail authorities. We seek the court’s help to protect us from this ongoing exploitation at Tihar,” the application read.

Following this, the judge has directed the station house officer of the Hari Nagar police station to file a report in the incident and investigate the claims of the Tihar inmates.

Sunil Gupta, PRO of Tihar Jail, told Hindustan Times, “These are hardcore criminals lodged in high security jail. No weapon was recovered from the jail premises and their application is a farce. There was no conspiracy.”

Speculation now is that:

  1. The lifers made up the story merely to create a distraction from their own murder trial, or
  2. Other officials in fear of new confessions have placed a contract on the lives of the officials being held, or
  3. Politicians who fear being implicated in the mesh of corruption surrounding the games have placed the contract, or
  4. the officials under arrest have themselves arranged for the “confession” to develop a sympathy factor before they come to trial.

Tihar Jail is itself notorious for the mal-treatment of many prisoners and for the comfortable living conditions for inmates with money and clout. So the allegation that Tihar jail officials were involved in something like this is not – in itself- so incredible!!

There will be many more twists and turns in this corruption scandal.

EASA eases safety inspections for A380’s Trent 900 engines

December 22, 2010

From the WSJ:

EUAIR1

Agence France-Presse/Getty Images The damaged Rolls-Royce Trent 900 engine and wing section from a Qantas Airways Airbus A380.

European aviation regulators on Tuesday substantially relaxed tight inspection rules covering Rolls-Royce Group PLC engines on Airbus A380 superjumbo jetliners, signaling that safety concerns about the planes are fading. The European Aviation Safety Agency, dropping emergency mandates to inspect Trent 900 engines after every 20 flights, moved to require repetitive inspections of most of the engines after 100 flights. The change is likely to reduce disruption of flight schedules, according to industry officials.

EASA’s move follows intensive inspections of Trent 900s on A380s operated by Qantas, Singapore Airlines Ltd. and Deutsche Lufthansa AG. In its latest directive, the agency said a review of manufacturing and inspection data convinced safety officials that many “lower risk” tubes are less prone to fracture and therefore don’t need such frequent checks.

Lifting the emergency directives so quickly, particularly after such a high-profile and dangerous event, indicates much of the fleet is unaffected by oil-system manufacturing defects.

To further assure the safety of Rolls-Royce-powered A380 jets, European regulators previously also ordered upgrades of Trent 900 electrical systems to prevent engine parts from turning dangerously fast, a condition that can lead to disintegration of spinning disks. Those enhancements already have been incorporated into the A380 fleet.

Problems caused by a manufacturing defect on an oil-supply tube have been blamed for the explosive failure of a relatively new Trent engine on the Qantas jet shortly after takeoff from Singapore. The fault has been found on the current fleet as well as at least one new plane slated for delivery to Qantas, according to industry officials. But on Tuesday, EASA for the first time specifically defined what it considers to be an acceptable minimum thickness for the walls of the tubes.

EASA’s decision also is good news for Qantas and the other carriers that fly A380s with Rolls-Royce engines because those airlines have been concerned about potential schedule disruptions and longer required layovers to accomplish the inspections.

EUAIR2

Australian Transport Safety Bureau report: The Trent 900 engine blew out after the Qantas A380 took off from Singapore on Nov. 4.

It would seem that the initial failings of the Trent 900 have now been found and are being rectified. But it needs a few more months of operation before it can be said that all the “teething” problems of the Trent 900 have been identified and resolved. The costs for the fix – mainly to be borne by Rolls Royce – have still to be added up and will not be finally clear for a few more months.

EASA had also relaxed inspection requirements before the explosion on the Qantas A380 probably in response to representations by the engine manufacturer and /or the airlines. One hopes that their decision to relax inspections this time is not just in response to pressure.

Global warming arrogance takes “credit” for the white-out in Europe and the White Christmas in Australia

December 21, 2010

It used to be that the Global Warming zealots warned about the possible disappearance of snow and the mild and wet winters to come in Europe. But their arrogance knows no bounds. They have changed their tune and irrespective of what weather may prevail they mange to put it down to Global Warming. They now put the coldest December in a hundred years and the current white-out across Northern Europe down to Global Warming.

That snow outside is what global warming looks like

James Delingpole at The Telegraph is lauging his socks off.


Not to be outdone, the SMH thinks the possibility of having a White Christmas during the height of Australia’s summer is also due to Global Warming!!!!

The Alarmists cannot live with the thought that man made effects are puny and inconsequential compared to the effects of the sun.

Mild winters, warm winters, early winters, coldest winters in 100 years are all quoted in defence of global warming dogma.  They are all merely grist to the mill of Global Warming arrogance.

Science has been left behind in some far and distant galaxy.

 

A small bright spot in the murky world of corporate ethics

December 21, 2010

Laws tell us what we must not do and morals tell us what we ought not to do – whether illegal or not.

But ethics – when they exist – tell us what is the right and proper and desirable thing to do.

Far too many corporates seem to think that mere compliance with laws is sufficient as a code of ethics. Much trumpeted Corporate Social Responsibilities are primarily public relations and image building exercises with little relation to ethics. Token gestures of engaging in some social programme are assumed to be evidence of the existence of an ethical code but the reality is that most corporates have no ethics. They are content – like children – to let others tell them by law what is forbidden and then take the easy path provided by assuming that all behaviour which is not illegal is – by default – ethical.

As if it is not possible to be completely compliant and completely corrupt at the same time. British Aerospace and their utter lack of ethics being a case in point.

Retraction Watch carries the refreshing story of Wnt Research which shows that some bright spots still exist in the murky world of corporate ethics.

Two weeks ago, we covered the retraction of a PNAS paper on a potential breast cancer treatment, one that would make tumors that didn’t respond to tamoxifen respond to the drug. We learned earlier this week from a Retraction Watch commenter that Wnt Research, a company based on the breast cancer finding and other work, was about to go public.

In fact, their initial public offering (IPO) happened today, and you can follow the price of their stock — listed on the Stockholm Stock Exchange as WNT — here. But what we learned when we looked into the IPO was that it was originally scheduled for late November, and was delayed because of the retraction.

Tommy Andersson, one of the researchers on the now-retracted paper and Wnt Research’s chief scientific officer, told Retraction Watch that the company had initially planned on going public on November 26. They had written a memorandum describing the company’s work to date, and its plans, and the public was given a chance to invest before shares hit the Stockholm exchange. That memorandum included a mention of the PNAS paper, as follows (translated from Swedish):

The research group has even shown that combining Wnt-5a or Foxy-5 will increase the expression of estrogen receptors in estrogen-negative breast cancer cells. It turned out that human breast cancer cells exposed to Foxy-5 regained tamoxifen sensitivity, which is clear from the increased apoptosis and reduced cell growth as a response to the endocrine treatment. Likewise, the research group found that administration of Foxy-5 in the body brought back the expression of estrogen receptors in a mouse model. Apart from the therapeutic potential of these observations, there is a potential to use the outcome of estrogen receptors as a biological marker, which should advance research.

The deadline for investment was October 27, and a number of people responded, allowing the company to continue its work. But on November 11, Andersson and his colleagues realized there were serious errors in the paper, and that it would need to be retracted. When Andersson called Wnt Research’s CEO, Bert Junno, on the 12th:

He rapidly called upon an extra Board meeting on the 15th of November (the same day my email of retraction was sent to the PNAS office). At this meeting we decided to make a press release on this matter and this went out on the 16th of November.

We again had an extra Board meeting on the 19th of November to discuss what other things that we needed to do. We agreed that the short press release must be accompanied by an addition to the already published memorandum, the reason being that you cannot change in the original memorandum. The CEO wrote this addition together with the people at the office of the small Stockholm Exchange “Aktietorget” where the company was to be listed. We also decided to ask for legal advice in how to handle the public that had already paid for shares in the company.

The board held another meeting on the 22nd, during which they approved the addition to the memorandum saying that the PNAS paper had been retracted. They also did something that can only be described as the right thing: They decided to write all of the approximately 275 people who had invested in the company by the October 27 deadline and offer their money back:

The reason for this was that the lawyer advised us to act according to good morals rather than to what we were required to do by law. His belief was that this would pay off in the long run.

The memorandum addition was published on November 25. And some people did ask for their money back:

The offer to retract their investments in the company resulted in a net loss of investments, but we still obtained enough investments to continue our work.

All of that back and forth also meant that the IPO was delayed by three weeks, until today.

We find this story wonderfully refreshing. Imagine, a company bending over backward to let investors — and potential investors — know about problems with its data.

I can only agree that this little story proves that, unlike what Milton Friedman had to say, it is perfectly possible to be ethical in the corporate world.

Today I did my bit and bought some shares in Wnt Research. I know too little about cancer research to judge whether this was or will be a good buy. But I applaud their ethics and my share purchase is just to put my money where my mouth is.

Landscheidt minimum is here — a new Dalton is indicated

December 21, 2010
SDO Sunspot

Spotless Sun

All the indicators are that the Landscheidt minimum is here and that this is going to be close to a Dalton minimum.

2010/12/20 8:00  Five Days in a row spotless is achieved 12 months after solar cycle 24 began it’s ramp up.

A Dalton Minimum Repeat is Shaping Up

The Dalton Minimum was a period of low solar activity, named after the English meteorologist John Dalton, lasting from about 1790 to 1830. Like the Maunder Minimum and Spörer Minimum, the Dalton Minimum coincided with a period of lower-than-average global temperatures. The Oberlach Station in Germany, for example, experienced a 2.0°C decline over 20 years. The Year Without a Summer, in 1816, also occurred during the Dalton Minimum. Solar cycles 5 and 6, as shown below, were greatly reduced in amplitude.

http://solarcycle24.com/sunspots.htm

Sunspot number till December 7th

 

http://www.landscheidt.info/images/sc5_sc24.png

To compare solar cycles we can also use the F10.7 radio flux values that have been recorded since 1947 in Canada. Solar cycle 20 was a weak cycle which is currently looking strong against solar cycle 24. Data is taken from the AU adjusted monthly average values.

Snow Chaos

December 21, 2010

Just returned from India via Frankfurt through Europe’s coldest December in over 100 years.

Two successive flights to Stockholm were cancelled (due to snow and the logistics of getting aircraft and crew to the right places) and I finally made it home with a delay of about 12 hours. Not too onerous.

But nothing unusual for Stockholm’s Arlanda airport  where operations continued without any fuss at -10°C and masses of snow. Flights cancelled from Arlanda were only those to the UK and Frankfurt!!!!

Heathrow

Heathrow snow chaos

 

UK snow: Christmas cancelled for travellers as Heathrow warns of days of delays

Heathrow authorities effectively cancelled the Christmas plans of hundreds of thousands of travellers yesterday as the Transport Secretary admitted the chaos at Britain’s busiest airport was “not acceptable”.

Amid mounting criticism of Heathrow’s response to the weekend’s snowfall, airline passengers were told to expect delays and flight cancellations “beyond Christmas Day”.

Snow and ice grounded two thirds of flights at Heathrow yesterday, with Terminals One and Three becoming so congested that passengers were told to stay away.

Only one of the airport’s runways was open and staff had cleared just half of the planes’ docking bays. All short-haul flights were cancelled. Some travellers faced a fourth night sleeping in terminal buildings in the hope of getting on a plane.

But even if the next Ice Age is coming I have no doubt that human ingenuity will ensure a successful adaptation.