Mt. Merapi eruptions continue into second week

November 5, 2010

AFP reports:

Merapi eruption

ARGOMULYO, Indonesia: At least 49 people were killed and scores injured Friday when Indonesia’s Mount Merapi volcano erupted again, incinerating villages as far as 18 kilometres (11 miles) away, officials said. The latest deaths bring the total toll to more than 90 since the country’s most active volcano started erupting on October 26. Ash, deadly heat clouds and molten debris gushed from the mouth of the 2,914-metre (9,616-foot) mountain and shot high into the sky for most of the night and into the morning.

The ranks of evacuees swelled past 100,000 people, with 30,000 moved into a sports stadium about 25 kilometres away from the peak. “The emergency shelters are now overcrowded,” emergency response field coordinator Widi Sutikno said.

The international airport at Yogyakarta was closed as ash clouds billowed to the altitude of cruising jetliners and the runway was covered in gray soot, officials said. The exclusion zone was widened from 15 to 20 kilometres around the mountain and everyone living in the area was ordered to evacuate their homes and shelters immediately, he said. Indonesia’s transport ministry has told pilots to stay at least 12 kilometres away from the rumbling volcano and several flights linking central Java to Singapore and Malaysia have been cancelled this week.

Government volcanologist Surono said Friday’s blasts were the largest yet.

Mt. Merapi: map credit hobotraveler.com

Lufthansa grounds one A 380 flight – plans to fly normally today

November 5, 2010

Lufthansa grounded its A380 scheduled to depart Frankfurt for Johannesburg on Thursday while it checked the Trent 900 engines, and instead used an A340-600 on the route, spokesman Boris Ogursky said. Lufthansa plans to fly the A380 from Frankfurt to Tokyo as scheduled on Friday, he added.

Qantas has extended its grounding of its A 380 fleet by at least another day.

Singapore Airlines has “delayed” all A 380 flights for extra engine checks.

The mid-air engine explosion that grounded Qantas and Singapore Airlines A380s was the third emergency linked to the Rolls-Royce Trent 900 engine. Two months ago, a Lufthansa A380 had to shut down one of its four Trent 900 engines shortly before landing at Frankfurt due to concerns about a change in oil pressure. Another Rolls-Royce-powered A380, this time operated by Singapore Airlines, was forced to turn back after leaving Paris in September last year because of an engine malfunction.

 

“Renewable energy keeps oil price high”- Saudi Oil Minister

November 5, 2010

It would seem that the current oil price is determined by the level at which renewable energy costs are politically acceptable. The conclusion then must be that if the “renewables” go out of fashion and become less politically correct then the oil price could be significantly lower than it is!

The Financial Times carries the story:

Ali Naimi, the oil minister of Saudi Arabia, was in mischievous mood on Monday night, positing an oil price of $70 to $90 for the foreseeable future, and suggesting that oil consumers should be happy with such a settlement – because a price of more than $70 was needed to justify investments in renewable energy.

His remarks, which came in response to questions from the Financial Times at a dinner hosted by the Singapore International Energy Week, did not go down well with all sections of the audience – some were unhappy that the world’s biggest oil producer should suggest they be content with an oil price they felt was unnecessarily high.

Mr Naimi justified his $70 to $90 prediction, which he called a “comfortable zone” that should be welcomed by oil producers and consumers alike, by reference to renewable energy, which he suggested gave oil an “anchor” price. If the oil price were to fall below $70, then renewable energy would not be competitive, he said.

In other words, he seemed to be implying, governments and companies that have invested in renewable energy are at least partly responsible for setting a de facto minimum price for oil of $70 per barrel.

Nothing to do with those oil-producing countries wanting a price more than $70 and “less than $90”, and tailoring their production accordingly, then.

In fact, Mr Naimi said, the world’s oil market was already “a little bit oversupplied”, which he suggested proved that it was renewable energy that was keeping prices up.

By the way, that $90 – an upper limit of the range that he carefully dropped into the conversation – was $10 a barrel more than Mr Naimi had previously suggested was the range of the “comfort zone”. Oil markets took note, and prices nudged up: Nymex December West Texas Intermediate, a US benchmark, rose $1.88 to $83.31 a barrel just after the remarks.

Coal still king as green power IPO struggles

November 4, 2010

Black vs. green. Wikimedia commons

“Green” is no longer as fashionable and trendy as it used to be. The slime of Climategate has had its impact as has the arrogance of the alarmists. But if the hard-headed world of business investments is anything to go by it seems “black” is begining to trump “green”. An earlier post described the huge success that Coal India’s IPO had. This needs to be contrasted with the tepid response to the the IPO for ENEL Green Power which also listed today.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6A31RH20101104

Waning investor interest in clean energy contrasted sharply with enthusiasm for coal on Thursday as shares in Enel Green Power fell on their debut while Coal India’s soared.

Enel Green Power (EGP), which generates clean energy from hydro and geothermal to wind and solar and is Europe’s biggest listing since 2008, dropped over 4 percent on its debut despite a cut price offered to lure investors.

Shares of Coal India, a similar sized share sale at around $3.5 billion, gained 40 percent in Mumbai on the same day.

“The struggle for renewables reflects the fact that they are quite capital-intensive, in a world that is capital-constrained, and face regulatory uncertainty,” Robert Clover, alternative energy equity analyst at HSBC said.

India, which has the world’s fifth biggest coal reserves after the United States, Russia, China and Australia, is riding an economic boom that is thirsty for fuel.

“Fundamentally, Coal India is a structural play on India’s rising energy demand,” said Binay Chandgothia, chief investment officer at Principal Global Investors in Hong Kong.

TOP EUROPEAN LISTING

Europe has seen a resurgence in public offerings as equity markets trade around 6-month highs, and many European companies have managed to get their initial public offerings toward the upper end of their price guidance.

But EGP’s parent company Enel, an Italian power giant that also controls Spain’s Endesa, struggled to woo professional investors for the sale of up to a third of its renewable unit against a backdrop of underperforming green energy stocks

It was forced to cut the price to 1.6 euros a share from a price range of 1.8-2.1 euros, and early guidance of 1.8-2.4 euros, raising only 2.5 billion euros ($3.5 billion) compared with the 3 billion euros it had wanted to help reduce debt.

Institutional investors had raised concerns over EGP’s lower growth rate versus peers, its lack of a track record and uncertainty on green energy incentives, despite its wider geographical footprint and technology mix.

The Italian power giant, which also controls Spanish utility Endesa, eventually managed to get the deal away thanks to interest from retail investors, but it will raise less than its 3 billion euro ($4.2 billion) target, key to cut debt.

Even after the price cut, shares fell over four percent both in Milan and Madrid on the first day of trading.

“”In any jumbo IPO you want it to trade up so that you can say the market has a good feeling about it, but I don’t think a lot of people expected this to trade well given how much went to retail,” said a source close to the deal.

By contrast, an attractive IPO valuation for India’s dominant coal miner spurred demand from investors who applied for more than 15 times the number of shares on offer in the country’s largest-ever IPO. Enel Green Power IPO was just 1.1 times covered.

The Coal India listing comes at a time of record foreign fund inflows into Indian stocks and in one of the best years for IPO fundraisings for the country.

Rolls Royce and EADS shares take a beating

November 4, 2010

London South East reports on the aftermath of Qantas grounding its A 380 fleet and Singapore Airlines delaying all A 380 flights for extra checks of the their Trent 900 engines:

Shares in Rolls-Royce fall 3.2 percent after Qantas Airways suspends flights of its Airbus A380 fleet after the failure of a Rolls Trent 900 engines triggers an emergency landing in Singapore.

Shares in Airbus parent EADS were 3.7 percent down after what is one of the most serious incidents for the world’s largest passenger plane in three years of commercial flight.

‘If it is a design fault on the engines it would be embarrassing because Rolls is the number two engine manufacturer in the world and has a fantastic reputation,’ says BGC Partners senior strategist Howard Wheeldon.

‘These type of things take a fairly lengthy time to investigate,’ he said, adding that ‘it will be costly to address those issues’ if it is a serious fault with the engine.

The intense competition between the two engines for the A 380, the Trent 900 and its rival the GP7200 manufactured by the General Electric/Pratt & Whitney Engine Alliance is centred around fuel efficiency. The GP7200 is generally thought to have a 1% advantage. It also seems to be the strategy for the U.S. engine makers to constantly maintain this performance gap over their competitor as each tries to improve performance.

From Aviation Week:

Of course Rolls-Royce disputes the existence of that fuel-burn performance lead and says its improvement plan for the Trent 900EP (enhanced performance) will lead to more substantial efficiency modifications by around 2013. Still in the early stages, these plans will incorporate advanced technology from the most recent iterations of the Boeing 787’s Trent 1000 and the Trent XWB for the A350.

The core of the package will be the introduction of elliptical leading-edge modifications throughout the entire compression system, including improved high- and intermediate-pressure (HP/IP) compressor blades and vanes. The modification, which also applies to the fan and outlet guide vanes, improves flow interactions by altering boundary layer thickness and increasing laminar flow. The changes are similar to elliptical leading-edge modifications made to the HP compressor introduced recently to International Aero Engines’ V2500 in the SelectOne program, as well as the Trent 700EP. The elliptical feature also is part of the baseline fan design for the Trent 1000 and XWB.

“The package includes tweaks to the air management system, and that also affects fuel burn,” says Crawford. “We’re very confident in being able to achieve the 1% post-2011. The program is already defined, the detailed design is being done and bits are in manufacture. Testing is next year and will cover maturity modifications to upgrade areas we’ve seen on early engines.” These include “potential ‘wear out’ areas we want to address, such as seal segments and optimized tip clearance.”

As with the Trent 700EP, the 900EP enhancement will be offered as an upgrade kit for existing engines. “The modifications are all optional and are completely interchangeable. You will get the full 1% if you install all the parts,” says Richard Keen, Airbus programs marketing director. “From 2011 this will be the production standard for all new Trent 900 orders,” he adds.

With the problems being experienced by the Trent 900 and also with the Trent 1000 for Boeing’s Dreamliner, one obvious question is whether the cut-throat competition for fuel efficiency is leading to a trade-off between efficiency on the one hand and reductions in clearances and compromises on wear considerations on the other.

Update! Singapore Airlines delays all A 380 flights for extra engine checks

November 4, 2010
Rolls-Royce Trent 900 on the prototype Airbus ...

Trent 900: Image via Wikipedia

Update!

After earlier saying they would continue all flights normally, Singapore Airlines Ltd. has delayed flights on Airbus A380 planes after engine trouble forced a Qantas superjumbo to make an emergency landing at Changi Airport. “Our engine manufacturer Rolls Royce and aircraft manufacturer Airbus have advised us to conduct precautionary technical checks on our A380 aircraft, following today’s incident involving another operator’s A380,” Singapore Airlines said in a statement late Thursday evening. “Resulting from this development, Singapore Airlines will be delaying all flights operating our A380 aircraft.”

 

Lufthansa and Singapore Airlines keep their Trent 900s flying

November 4, 2010

 

Singapore Airlines (SIA/SQ) Airbus A380 (9V-SK...

ISingapore Airlines A 380: Image via Wikipedia

 

While Qantas has grounded its A380 fleet, Lufthansa and Singapore Airlines – who also use the Rolls Royce Trent 900 engines of the type which failed on the Qantas jet – are watching the situation but are keeping their A380’s flying.

Bloomberg reports:

Deutsche Lufthansa AG and Singapore Airlines Ltd. said they’ll keep their Airbus SAS A380s flying after Qantas Airways Ltd. grounded its six-strong superjumbo fleet following an engine explosion in mid-flight.

Lufthansa is operating its four A380s as normal, spokesman Boris Ogursky said by telephone, as is Singapore Airlines, which has 11 of the planes, according to a statement. The pair are the only other carriers with superjumbos powered by the same Rolls- Royce Group Plc Trent 900 engines used on the Qantas jet.

Australia’s Qantas will keep its fleet out of service “as long as it takes” after one of the four engines on an A380 failed en route from Singapore to Sydney, Chief Executive Officer Alan Joycesaid today. The pilots performed an emergency landing at Singapore at 11:46 a.m. local time.

Singapore Airlines was the first carrier to operate the A380 and has nine more on order, plus six options, according to its website. All will be powered by Trent 900 turbines.

Lufthansa, based in Cologne, Germany, has ordered 15 A380s, with those already delivered used for services to Tokyo, Beijing and Johannesburg. The Rolls engine passed compulsory tests “with flying colors” before delivery, the airline said in May.

Nicholas Ionides, head of corporate communications for Singapore Airlines, told Reuters the airline was liaising closely with its engineering team and manufacturers.

Meanwhile

Dubai’s flag carrier Emirates Airline, the biggest single customer of the Airbus A380 aircraft, said Thursday all of its superjumbos are operational and on schedule, after an A380 owned by Qantas Airways (QAN.AU) was forced to make an emergency landing due to an engine failure.

“All of our Emirates A380s are operating as scheduled. Emirates has 13 A380s in operation, powered by Engine Alliance GP7200 engines,” the company said in an emailed statement.

Related posts:

https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2010/11/04/rolls-royce-trent-900-engine-was-subject-of-airworthiness-directive-on-17th-september/

https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2010/11/04/qantas-grounds-all-a-380-flights-following-in-flight-failure-of-rr-trent-900/

https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2010/11/04/qantas-a-380-suffers-in-flight-rr-trent-900-engine-failure/

COP10 was much noise and no substance – thank goodness!

November 4, 2010

 

Flag of Nagoya City

Flag of Nagoya: Image via Wikipedia

 

My first impressions after the COP10 UN conference on biodiversity held in Nagoya was of a jamboree involving 5,000 people mouthing diffuse platitudes and woolly goals which had little to do with the further development of the human species. The Japanese hosts came up with 2 billion $ in the last few days of the conference to assuage some of the demands being made by developing countries and to be able to mount a PR exercise about the great success it had all been.

I don’t often agree with George Monbiot of The Guardian but this time I think he gets it right. It was a con. There was no substance in the declarations made at the end of the conference. The only point of difference is that I am profoundly thankful that there was no substance to something which has no real objectives whereas Monbiot believes that this was a minor tragedy. He writes:

We’ve been conned. The deal to save the natural world never happened

The so-called summit in Japan won’t stop anyone trashing the planet. Only economic risks seem to make governments act.

‘Countries join forces to save life on Earth”, the front page of the Independent told us. “Historic”, “a landmark”, a “much-needed morale booster”, the other papers chorused. The declaration agreed last week at the summit in Japan to protect the world’s wild species and places was proclaimed by almost everyone a great success. There is one problem: none of the journalists who made these claims has seen it.

I checked with as many of them as I could reach by phone: all they had read was a press release which, though three pages long, is almost content-free. The reporters can’t be blamed for this – it was approved on Friday but the declaration has still not been published. I’ve pursued people on three continents to try to obtain it, without success. Having secured the headlines it wanted, the entire senior staff of the convention on biological diversity has gone to ground, and my calls and emails remain unanswered. The British government, which lavishly praised the declaration, tells me it has no printed copies. I’ve never seen this situation before. Every other international agreement I’ve followed was published as soon as it was approved.

The evidence suggests that we’ve been conned. The draft agreement, published a month ago, contained no binding obligations. Nothing I’ve heard from Japan suggests that this has changed. The draft saw the targets for 2020 that governments were asked to adopt as nothing more than “aspirations for achievement at the global level” and a “flexible framework”, within which countries can do as they wish. No government, if the draft has been approved, is obliged to change its policies.

Read the whole article

Sexy Coal India shares list with an opening gain of 32%

November 4, 2010

 

Bombay Stock Exchange

BSE: Image via Wikipedia

 

The Coal India IPO where the Government of India divested 10% of its shares in the worlds largest coal producer was massively oversubscribed. The share price was set at 245 Rs at the top of its offer range of 225 – 245 Rupees.

The shares were listed today and the price immediately zoomed to 324 Rs showing an opening gain of 32%.

The Economic Times reports:

The world’s largest coal producer today listed on the bourses with a handsome premium and zoomed over 32 per cent, over its IPO issue price of Rs 245 per share, to hit a high of Rs 324.75 in the first hour of trade on the Bombay Stock Exchange.

Partha S. Bhattacharyya, Chairman & MD, Coal India Limited says, “Many records have been broken and many peaks have been scaled. For the officials intensely involved in the process, the feeling largely resembles to that of a mother who has just given birth to a child. Indeed it is a moment of birth in the capital market that brings in huge responsibility on the management to rear the newborn baby into a strong and mature turnout by living upto the expectations of the investing community consistently.”

Prasad Baji, Senior VP, Edelweiss says, “Technically Coal India’s valuation is running not just as a coal company but since its model is different, it is selling in India where there is an assured offtake and its pricing will never see a price tag, therefore, it is not typically a commodity play as compared to other coal companies.

Investors included Janus Capital, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton and Capital International. Domestic investors included State Bank of India , ICICI Bank and Life Insurance Corp. Maximum subscription was in the high net worth category with subscription of around 25 times. Amit Aggrawal, a financial services executive who borrowed Rs 90 million to bid for Coal India shares, says that he would take some profits off the table at Rs 320 a share. “I may hold back some shares and sell them at a later stage,” says Mr Aggrawal.

Rolls Royce Trent 900 engine was subject of Airworthiness Directive on 17th September

November 4, 2010

http://rgl.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guidance_Library/rgAD.nsf/list/2010-16-07?OpenDocument

The Federal Aviation Administration issued an AD concerning the RR Trent 900 engine recently:

ACTION: Final rule; request for comments.

SUMMARY: We are adopting a new airworthiness directive (AD) for the products listed above. This AD results from mandatory continuing airworthiness information (MCAI) issued by an aviation authority of another country to identify and correct an unsafe condition on an aviation product. The MCAI describes the unsafe condition as:

Wear, beyond Engine Manual limits, has been identified on the abutment faces of the splines on the Trent 900 Intermediate Pressure (IP) shaft rigid coupling on several engines during strip. The shaft to coupling spline interface provides the means of controlling the turbine axial setting and wear through of the splines would permit the IP turbine to move rearwards.

Rearward movement of the IP turbine would enable contact with static turbine components and would result in loss of engine performance with potential for in-flight shut down, oil migration and oil fire below the LP turbine discs prior to sufficient indication resulting in loss of LP turbine disc integrity.
We are issuing this AD to detect rearward movement of the IP turbine, which could result in loss of disc integrity, an uncontained failure of the engine, and damage to the airplane.

DATES: This AD becomes effective September 17, 2010.

Of course it is far too early to say if this has anything to do with the Trent 900 engine failures experienced by Singapore Airlines and Qantas on their A 380’s but the AD does talk about the possibility of an “uncontained failure of the engine”.