“Bigger, faster, stronger” tarnished by Zika, doping, corruption

August 4, 2016

The Olympic games (summer and winter) have been a high point in my sporting interests for some 50 years. But this year my usual enthusiasm is heavily subdued and my viewing will be accompanied by a very high level of cynicism. The dominating themes are Zika, doping and corruption and could completely overshadow any feats of speed or strength or skill.

Tomorrow is the official opening of the Rio Olympics. The torch arrived yesterday accompanied by demonstrations against the high cost of the games and against the rampant political corruption in Brazil. The military broke up the peaceful demonstrations with an exercise of – apparently – excessive violence. No doubt they are all on edge. Some preliminary women’s football matches were played in empty stadiums (and why on earth is football an Olympic sport?).

Some other peripheral sports, which should not be part of the Olympics (golf, tennis), have seen many of their stars pull out citing a variety of injuries and other engagements. But they are all dead scared of the Zika virus and can’t jeopardise their normal earnings. In any case there is little glory or credit in an Olympic medal for golf or tennis.

The closed shop that is the IOC, to my perception, is more corrupt than FIFA ever was. Every venue for the last 50 years has been “bought”. Corruption is endemic in the administration and in many of the sports. The boxing and wrestling and weightlifting tournaments are so “fixed” that the results are meaningless. The gymnastics championships are beset first by subjective judging and – always it seems – by politically influenced judging. Today the IOC announced that another batch of strange sports would be included in the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. Softball and skateboarding among others. Skateboarding? No doubt many thousands, if not millions, has changed hands.

It is swimming and track and field which – for me – are the essence of the Olympics. I would be quite happy to see diving and water-polo be dropped. Rowing and canoeing and sailing are probably valid disciplines but the equestrian sports are not. Trampoline gymnastics and synchronised swimming and beach volleyball are other ridiculous disciplines which have no place in the Olympics.

The sports at the Rio Olympics are:

Rio Olympic sports

Rio Olympic sports

I hope there are no catastrophes and I wish the Brazilians well. Brazil now really needs a successful games to feel good about.

No doubt I will spend many hours watching on Television. But I will not be as engaged and enthusiastic as I usually am.

 

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Saudi Arabia is losing its war against oil shale

August 3, 2016

Saudi Arabia started its war on US shale oil in the autumn of 2014. Oil prices in June 2014 were around $110 per barrel and were on the way down as US shale oil producers were ramping up production. The expectation was that the OPEC cartel would reduce production to hold prices up. The conventional wisdom was that whereas Saudi Arabia had a production cost of about $3 per barrel, shale oil had a production cost of over $50 per barrel and upto close to $100. Oil from Canadian tar sands was thought to have a production cost of above $70 per barrel. Both were though to require oil prices well in excess of $70 and close to $100 to be viable.

But Saudi Arabia decided to strangle the burgeoning shale oil industry and started an oil war. It forced other OPEC members to focus on market share and hold production levels. Even though there was a glut of oil on the market. Oil fell to below $30 per barrel earlier this year before recovering to around $45. Saudi’s strategy was based on the assumption that rock-bottom prices would kill off the upstart non-OPEC, US shale producers. Low production costs would allow the OPEC producers to take some pain for a year or so. Certainly this strategy has had some effect. U.S. oil production is about one million barrels per day lower than a year ago.

Certainly some shale oil producers have gone out of business. But US oil production is much higher than thought possible at the prevailing price. The main effect of the Saudi strategy has been counter-productive. There has been a remarkable burst of innovation among the shale frackers which has drastically reduced shale oil production costs. The costs for shale production that I had reported 2 years ago no longer apply.Then the cheapest shale oil to produce was from Marcellus shale at around $24 per barrel. But the cheapest today costs $2.25 a barrel on horizontal wells in the Permian Basin of West Texas. That is directly – and even favourably – comparable with the Saudi production costs.

Reuters: Improved fracking techniques have helped cut Pioneer Natural Resources Co’s production costs in the Permian Basin to about $2 a barrel, low enough to compete with oil rival Saudi Arabia, CEO Scott Sheffield said on Thursday. 

The comments from Sheffield, who is retiring soon, were perhaps the most concrete sign yet that the fittest U.S. shale oil producers will survive the price crash that started in mid-2014 when Saudi Arabia and OPEC moved to pump heavily to win back market share from higher-cost producers.

Dozens of shale companies, many with marginal assets, have filed for credit protection in the biggest wave of corporate bankruptcies since the telecoms crash of the early 2000s. Sheffield said high costs would continue to make U.S. shale plays outside the Permian basin relatively less competitive. 

On Pioneer’s second-quarter results call, Sheffield said that, excluding taxes, production costs have fallen to $2.25 a barrel on horizontal wells in the Permian Basin of West Texas, so it is nearly on even footing with low-cost producers of conventional oil.

“Definitely we can compete with anything that Saudi Arabia has,” he said.

“My firm belief is the Permian is going to be the only driver of long-term oil growth in this country. And it’s going to grow on up to about 5 million barrels a day from 2 million barrels,” even in a $55 per barrel price environment, he added. …….. 

Pioneer expects output to grow 15 percent a year through 2020 after posting production of 233,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day this past quarter. It sees most of its growth in the Permian, though it also has acreage in the Eagle Ford.

Pioneer helps limit costs by doing much of its oilfield services work in-house. It also has its own sand mine, and uses effluent water from the city of Odessa for frack jobs using pressurized sand, water and chemicals to unlock oil from rock.

Pioneer said it is now introducing its third generation of well completion techniques, called version 3.0, that is using even more sand and water than the super-sized volumes introduced at the start of the price crash to pull more oil out of rock.

permian basin texas

Even at prices less than $20 per barrel, some considerable quantities of shale oil would continue to be produced.

The Saudi strategy is backfiring.

 

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“No ransom policy” but Obama paid $400 million cash for release of 4 prisoners from Iran

August 3, 2016

The Obama/Clinton followed by the Obama/Kerry foreign policy legacy will come to be seen as a low point in US history. It has been a foreign policy dominated by their own fears and devoid of courage. Paralysis by analysis.

The much publicised US policy of not paying ransom for the release of US prisoners in foreign countries is not quite all what it seems. It would seem that secretly paid ransoms are OK.

MarketWatch:

The Obama administration secretly organized an airlift of $400 million worth of cash to Iran that coincided with the January release of four Americans detained in Tehran, according to U.S. and European officials and congressional staff briefed on the operation afterward.

Wooden pallets stacked with euros, Swiss francs and other currencies were flown into Iran on an unmarked cargo plane, according to these officials. The U.S. procured the money from the central banks of the Netherlands and Switzerland, they said.

The money represented the first installment of a $1.7 billion settlement the Obama administration reached with Iran to resolve a decades-old dispute over a failed arms deal signed just before the 1979 fall of Iran’s last monarch, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. 

The settlement, which resolved claims before an international tribunal in The Hague, also coincided with the formal implementation that same weekend of the landmark nuclear agreement reached between Tehran, the U.S. and other global powers the summer before.

“With the nuclear deal done, prisoners released, the time was right to resolve this dispute as well,” President Barack Obama said at the White House on Jan. 17 — without disclosing the $400 million cash payment.

Senior U.S. officials denied any link between the payment and the prisoner exchange. They say the way the various strands came together simultaneously was coincidental, not the result of any quid pro quo. ……. But U.S. officials also acknowledge that Iranian negotiators on the prisoner exchange said they wanted the cash to show they had gained something tangible.

Sen. Tom Cotton, a Republican from Arkansas and a fierce foe of the Iran nuclear deal, accused President Barack Obama of paying “a $1.7 billion ransom to the ayatollahs for U.S. hostages.”

“This break with longstanding U.S. policy [not to] put a price on the head of Americans, and has led Iran to continue its illegal seizures” of Americans, he said.

Since the cash shipment, the intelligence arm of the Revolutionary Guard has arrested two more Iranian-Americans. Tehran has also detained dual-nationals from France, Canada and the U.K. in recent months.

To claim that it was coincidence is a little ingenuous and there seems little doubt it was a ransom:

IndependentSentinel:  January 22, 2016

Obama Paid Out A Ransom to Iran

The U.S. Treasury Department wired the money to Iran around the same time its theocratic government allowed three American prisoners to fly out of Tehran on Sunday aboard a Dassault Falcon jet owned by the Swiss air force. The prisoner swap also involved freedom for two other Americans held in Iran as well as for seven Iranians charged or convicted by the U.S. and another 21 under investigation.

“Based on an approval of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) and the overall interests of the Islamic Republic, four Iranian prisoners with dual-nationality were freed today within the framework of a prisoner swap deal,” the office of the Tehran prosecutor said.

Brigadier General Hassan Naqdi, the head of the Iranian regime’s notorious Basij militia, claimed on Wednesday that Iran had received $1.7 billion from the U.S. in exchange for the release of imprisoned Americans.

kerry-inshallah

image – Independent Sentinel

 

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France has closed 20 radical mosques and over 100 more could be closed

August 2, 2016

Not all mosques harbour the radical preachers who infect the vulnerable with the murderousness virus. But some certainly do. Not all madrassas are totally focused on brain-washing impressionable and malleable young minds into the state of would-be terrorists. But some are. Not all radical mosques and madrassas are financed from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. But some certainly are.

After Paris and now Nice, France has had enough. Since December, 20 mosques and prayer halls considered radical have been closed. Over one hundred more are on the list fpr closure. Banning the foreign financing of mosques and prayer halls is now being considered.

Rfi: 

French authorities have shut down around 20 mosques and prayer halls considered to be preaching radical Islam since December, Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve said on Monday. “There is no place … in France for those who call for and incite hatred in prayer halls or in mosques, and who don’t respect certain republican principles, notably equality between men and women,” the minister said. “That is why I took the decision a few months ago to close mosques through the state of emergency, legal measures or administrative measures. About 20 mosques have been closed, and there will be others.”

…….. There are some 2,500 mosques and prayer halls in France, about 120 of which are considered to be preaching radical Salafism, a strict Sunni interpretation of Islam.

……… Prime Minister Manuel Valls said last week that he would consider a temporary ban on foreign financing of mosques, urging a “new model” for relations with Islam.

Cazeneuve confirmed that authorities were working on a French foundation for Islam which would guarantee total transparency in financing of mosques “with rigorous respect for secular principles.”

In December 2015 Al Jazeera reported that 160 mosques had been identified and could be closed.

Al Jazeera: France is likely to close up to 160 mosques in the coming months as part of a nationwide police operation under the state of emergency which allows places of worship that promote radical views to be shut down, one of the country’s chief imams has said. 

Following news that three mosques have already been closed since the November 13 attacks on the capital, Hassan El Alaoui, who is in charge of nominating regional and local Muslim imams and mediating between the imams and prison officials, told Al Jazeera on Wednesday that more were set to be shut.

“According to official figures and our discussions with the interior ministry, between 100 and 160 more mosques will be closed because they are run illegally without proper licenses, they preach hatred, or use takfiri speech,” he said.

The majority of Muslims in France are Sunni and while some are clearly sympathisers and supporters of the Taliban and ISIS and Al Qaida, and even of Boko Haram and Al Shabab, the majority of Sunnis are not. But as Felix Marquardt, a Parisian Muslim and cofounder of the al-Kawakibi Foundation, which works towards Islamic reformation puts it:

“It hardly comes as a surprise to me that there are mosques that absolutely deserve to be closed in France,” he told Al Jazeera. ….. “There was a world view [being preached] that was quite worrisome. I’m talking about the politicisation of Islam. I’ve heard some speeches that tend to promote the notion among Muslims present that Islamophobia is organised by the French state, that somehow non-Muslim French people are against the Muslim minority.” …….. “The link between people committing barbaric acts throughout the world is that they think of themselves as Muslim. As long as Muslims refuse to look at that honestly…I think it’s not very serious intellectually and dubious morally and it’s shocking this point is going to keep on coming.”

Image result for Paris mosque closed

image from Al Jazeera

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Are Clinton and Trump really the best the US can come up with?

August 1, 2016

The election process will no doubt be entertaining. Trump’s antics and Clinton’s contortions will provide much fodder for fun. But I don’t envy the choice that US electors are facing. Clinton or Trump is not exactly being spoilt for choice. It is not possible to just cry “a plague on both your houses” and abstain. One of them will be the next President. It boils down to a choice between evils.

The US population is now about 320 million.

US voters 2016 - Pew Research

US voters 2016 – Pew Research

In November this year there will be 226 million registered voters (156 million white, 27 million black, 27 million hispanic and 10 million asian). At most there will be a voter turnout of 60% and so the next US President will be declared elected with a vote of around 68 million – which is around 30% of registered voters and just 21% of the US population.

But what is really no great tribute to US democracy in particular, and party democracies in general, is that the voters will have no better choice than to choose between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Is this really the best that 320 million people can come up with? There is increasing interest being shown in a 3rd party candidate, but it is way too little, far too late to have any bearing on the November election.

I am not a US citizen and I don’t have a vote and it shouldn’t really matter to me. But of course the choice of US President affects everybody  – somewhat. US domestic policy affects me primarily through what it means to my friends and relatives living in the US, and through the effect on my own economy (mainly indirectly). US foreign policy will have an undoubted impact on the state of the world and thus – but more tenuously – have some implications for me.

No democracy is perfect. In fact, no democracy anywhere is a “full democracy”. Party democracies really represent party members and are particularly poor at representing the electorate. Even dictators make sure that they are “elected” democratically. All democracies use processes which put in place people who can be “monarchs”, having varying powers, for a time. All ” democratic leaders” are effectively such “monarchs”, elected to exercise their powers, for a time. The closer you get to a “full democracy”, the closer you get to anarchy and the less you have leaders. In many democracies with proportional representation, you no longer have leaders – only followers. You could argue that the current UK government, which is implementing the referendum result for a Brexit, has no need for, and has no, leader. Theresa May is not then a Brexit leader but a Chief Follower.

The democratic nature of political systems, in practice, is established by their process for choosing their “leaders”to stand for election. The long-winded US process for each party choosing a nominee, is more democratic and all-encompassing than most party political processes for choosing representatives. But this process, in the way US democracy works, has thrown up Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. To the dissatisfaction of most.

While I am happy to be entertained by the US election process, I am more than a little disappointed that, no matter what happens, the world is stuck with the fact that one of these unedifying two is going to be the next President.

It is a little bit sad.

 

 

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A prime directive for religions and politics: First, do no harm!

July 31, 2016

Primum non nocere – First, do no harm!

It is sometimes expressed aa “Above all, do no harm” or “Primarily, do no harm”. It used to be part of the Hippocratic oath for physicians as “… abstain from doing harm”. It is a phrase which is used mostly in a medical or psychological context but it seems to me it should rightly be a Prime Directive for virtually all human activity.

All human systems of law exist to make proper redress when a claim is made. For a claim to be made against anyone or any body of people, there must first be liability. Without liability there is no claim to be made. If no harm is done there is no liability. If this is the Prime Directive for all human kind, and if there is full compliance, it follows that having a system for handling claims and and redress becomes unnecessary. Note also that without harm being done, the question of ethical dilemmas does not arise. Generally law tells us what not to do and ethics tells us what to do. Legal and ethical dilemmas only arise because what law or ethics tell us to do can cause harm to someone. And as soon as harm is done, there is liability and there is a claim.

Not everything legal is ethical and not everything illegal is unethical. But we get a confluence of ethics and law if both adopt doing no harm as the foundation on which their structures are built.

If we must have religions, why cannot every religion have that as its prime Directive or Commandment number Zero? It ought to be the underlying tenet of every political party, of every association of people, of every corporate body, of every advocacy group or – even – of every charity. It ought to be the default codicil to every exhortation to action and to every purpose. “Seek happiness but first, do no harm” or “Make a difference, but first, do no harm” or “Make your fortune but first, do no harm”.

Of course it will be rationalised and circumscribed. “First, Do no harm” will nearly always become “Do no unnecessary harm” and you could argue that the concept of the use of force not being disproportionate to the task in hand is just that. In fact the concept of “being proportional” lies at the heart of our concepts of justice and fairness and “balance”. Even in war we require that harm be kept to a minimin. “Collateral damage” is to be minimised. Using disproportionate force is frowned upon. Attacking unarmed, non-combatants is not the done thing.

The practical reality is that human activities do, in fact, do harm to others. But that does not preclude any human activity from starting with “First, do no harm”. 

Related:

Behaviour, law and ethics: A practical view

 

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Will Yuriko Koike crack Tokyo’s glass ceiling?

July 31, 2016

Yuriko Koike – image alchetron.com

UPDATE: Koike won.

Tokyo elects first woman governor

If Yuriko Koike can win today’s election to be Tokyo’s governor , it will be a far more significant event in cracking the glass ceiling in Japan’s male-dominated, endemically misogynistic political system, than Hillary Clinton’s achievement in being the first woman to be nominated for President by a major party. The polls have been vaguely – if ambiguously – encouraging for Koike, but she has been subject to much vilification from the establishment candidate. She has been a member of parliament since 1993 for the LDP and even stood for leadership of the LDP in 2008. She served as Environment Minister and as Minister for Okinawa in Jun’ichirō Koizumi’s government. She even served as Defense Minister in Shinzo Abe’s government but resigned after 2 months due to an internal fight within the LDP.

In the Tokyo gubernatorial elections she is standing as an independent – which has not pleased the LDP. She is one of 21 contenders but the three leading contenders are former Defence Minister Yuriko Koike, politician Hiroya Masuda and journalist Shuntaro Torigoe.

BBC:…. Sunday’s election was called after previous governor Yoichi Masuzoe resigned last month. He faced fierce criticism over allegations he used official funds to pay for holidays, art and comic books for his children. Mr Masuzoe, who won election promising a scandal-free administration, denied breaking the law, but admitted to ethical lapses around his lavish spending.

His predecessor, Naoki Inose also quit over a funding scandal in 2013, soon after Tokyo won the right to host the Olympics. Since then Tokyo’s preparations for the 2020 Summer Olympics have been hit by scandals, overspending, administrative fumbles and construction delays.

One of the new governor’s first duties will be to travel to Rio at the end of the 2016 Olympics in August to accept the Olympic flag as the next host.

The Japan Times writes of the 3 main candidates:

…. Koike, a 64-year-old former TV anchorwoman, speaks fluent English and Arabic — the latter acquired as a student in Cairo — and has also served as environment minister. …

Masuda, also 64 and backed by the ruling coalition — which spurned Koike for not seeking its approval before announcing her candidacy — is a veteran administrator who won plaudits as governor of Iwate for 12 years until 2007.

Also in the running is 76-year-old Torigoe, a liberal journalist widely known for his ubiquitous TV appearances and also as a cancer survivor.

The winner’s term will run until just after the games commence, and how the new governor handles the run-up will be closely watched. A key challenge will be getting a grip on swelling costs, seen as possibly double or triple the reported original forecast of ¥730 billion ($6.92 billion).

Counting begins at 8pm local time which is in a few hours from now.

 

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Good monsoon (so far) points to Indian GDP growth of over 8%

July 28, 2016

The monsoon season is half over and the rains are at the long-term average which is considered “good”. The difference between a “good” and a “poor” monsoon is generally thought to be over 2 percentage points for GDP.  The Indian ratings agency CRISIL is sufficiently encouraged already to begin talking about a GDP growth of over 8% for the Fiscal Year ending March 2017.

moneycontrol:A good monsoon with even rainfall distribution across regions will give a boost to farm sector and may push India’s GDP growth beyond the 8 percent mark in the current fiscal, Crisil said. However, stress in rainfall in certain parts of the country and excess downpour in some other regions may be a cause for worry, the credit rating agency said in a report. In a positive scenario — good monsoon backed by favourable temporal and spatial distribution — agriculture growth can surge to 6 percent from a weak base of last year and therefore push up GDP growth above 8 percent, it said. According to the report, assuming rainfall is evenly distributed across time and regions, GDP growth may rise to 7.9 percent, if agricultural growth comes at 4 percent and CPI inflation remains contained at 5 percent in the current fiscal. …..

Despite a slow start in June, rains have caught up and were just 1 percent below normal as of July 25. This has helped reservoirs to bounce back from the lows seen in the beginning of the fiscal, boosting farmers’ confidence, the report said. Excess rainfall in 89 districts across eight states could impact sowing and therefore agricultural output for the kharif season. Hence, spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall in the second half of the season, especially in August, will be crucial, it added. 

Today’s picture from Skymet shows the monsoon covering the entire country reasonably evenly.

24-Hours-Rainfall-28-07-2016---600

July 28, 2016 11:46 AM – Skymet

 

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Trump dominates even the Democratic convention

July 28, 2016

The DNC convention should have been all about Hillary. Instead it is becoming all about Trump.

Not unexpectedly, it has been Trump-bashing all week both by Democrat politicians and by the – largely – anti-Trump media. Last night Obama came out strongly in Clinton’s corner and criticised Trump. Michael Bloomberg stated that Hillary was “sane and competent” unlike Trump. Somebody else went down the dubious  “all good girls have abortions” line. and attacked Trump. Harry Reid attacked Trump, Martin O’Malley attacked Trump, Joe Biden attacked Trump. Joe Biden went on to say that “America was already great”. Chris Murphy attacked Donald Trump, Tim Kaine attacked Trump. Michelle Obama attacked Trump and said that “America was the greatest”. Bernie Sanders attacked Trump. Bernie Sanders’ supporters were very unhappy with the DNC and Hillary Clinton, but they too attacked Trump.

Everybody in sight and his pet dog attacked Trump.

Many of the attacks are so contrived or so over-the-top that they can only be counter-productive. The Democrats have effectively handed Trump a full week of attention and publicity on a plate. There’s still another day for the DNC convention to run, but it is quite clear that attacking Donald Trump dominates the proceedings – even more than supporting Hillary Clinton. Donald Trump is dominating the media and all attention even at Clinton’s party.

Donald Trump is holding out being “Great Again” as the hope. To counter that by just saying America is “Already Great” could be the strategic blunder of this election.

It has been my theory for over 6 months now that full-frontal attacks on Trump are counter productive. His support feeds and grows on such attacks from the establishment. It is also my theory that to diminish his support requires occupying some of the ground he stands on – not by denying that the ground exists. “Great Again” is what an increasing number of the electorate aspire to. For Michelle Obama to merely claim that “America is the greatest” gives such aspirations no hope at all. Is she really saying to “black live matters” that all is “sweetness and light”? Barack Obama – after 8 years of “where he could but didn’t” – merely asks them to live in hope rather than in fear. For Joe Biden to also say that “America was already great” was a denial of hope for those who live in a depression and keep going only buoyed by their  aspirations for something better.

“Already Great”  smacks of complacency. It gives no room for aspirations. It is likely to be a bad loser against “Great Again”.  It is not what Democrats would like to hear or to acknowledge but “Great Again” is about hope and “Great Already” is about complacency.

The Democrats are turning Trump into the candidate of hope.

 

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Flies are immortal, can reincarnate and can teleport

July 27, 2016

We have some building work going on in the yard and the door is left open at times. It has been pretty warm (about 30ºC and humid) for the last few days. Leaving the door open for 5 minutes is sufficient for 20 – 30 squatter flies to enter and take possession. They congregate mainly in the kitchen but they get everywhere in seconds. They are in my study – one floor down – and in the bedroom – one floor up – and in every bathroom even though the doors are shut.

I have flyswatters in every room.

I swat them here, I swat them there,

My wife, she swats them everywhere,

Are they immortal? Are they from hell?

Those damnable Musca domesticels

I have swatted them singly, in twos and threes (but I have never managed seven in one blow). I flush their dead bodies down the toilet, directly into the rubbish bin, wrapped in tissue or wrapped in foil. It does not matter how I kill them and how I dispose of them. They reappear in about 5 seconds. It has become quite clear that they immediately reincarnate and teleport themselves to a place of safety from where they can attack me again. Where they store their spare corporeal bodies is beyond me.

The simple and unavoidable explanation is

  1. that they are immortal,
  2. They have an infinite number of spare bodies they can reincarnate in when one is destroyed,
  3. they can teleport

 

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