The GT26 lives on with Ansaldo (for now)

June 21, 2016

I have previously expressed my doubts as to how long sequential combustion technology will continue for gas turbines after the technology has been transferred to Ansaldo Energia (as part of the acquisition of Alstom by GE).

Ansaldo has announced (in March this year) the sale of 2×2 GT26 machines as part of power islands for the Ibri and Sohar#3 combined cycle plants Oman.

Ansaldo Energia Switzerland has been awarded two contracts worth approximately 600 million Euros in total for the supply of major power plant equipment to two large IPP projects. The Ibri 1510 MW CCPP and Sohar III 1710 MW CCPP in the Sultanate of Oman are expected to be commissioned in early 2019. The Ibri and Sohar III CCPP IPP projects are developed by the sponsor consortium of Mitsui & Co. Ltd., ACWA – International Company for Water and Power Projects and DIDIC – Dhofar International Development and Investment Holding Company, following a simultaneous award of the two projects to the development consortium by Oman Power and Water Procurement Company SAOC of Oman earlier this month. The two power stations will operate and supply power under a PPA to the grid in the Sultanate of Oman. Ansaldo Energia will supply the main power train equipment components, including for each power plant, four of Ansaldo Energia’s newly acquired high-efficiency advanced GT26 class gas turbines, four heat recovery steam generators (HRSGs), two steam turbines and six turbo generators to SEPCOIII Electric Power Construction Cooperation of China (SEPCOIII), who will be responsible for engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) on a turnkey basis. Ansaldo Energia will also provide field services to SEPCOIII – under separate contracts – during the construction phase and long term maintenance services to the operator after commissioning. These projects mark Ansaldo Energia’s first success with its recently acquired and formerly Alstom owned GT26 gas turbine technology and will be one of the largest CCPP project awards in the Gulf region. Ansaldo Energia will certainly have a firm place the CCPP and IPP market where highly efficient, operationally flexible and reliable technology is required. With these two projects in execution in the region and Ansaldo Energia’s presence as a service provider in the Middle East area through Ansaldo Thomassen Gulf in Abu Dhabi, Ansaldo Energia’s position in the Gulf will be further strengthened. Juerg Schmidli, Ansaldo Energia Switzerland President, commented: “With its operating flexibility and high efficiency, the GT26 gas turbine will play a critical role in generating maximum project returns for our customer. This is the perfect start for our newly formed Company Ansaldo Energia Switzerland”.

I hope these machines from Baden/Birr will truly mean that Ansaldo has grabbed the sequential combustion ball and is running with it (and not that these are just machines already largely manufactured while under Alstom ownership and completed by Ansaldo).

What I still doubt is whether Ansaldo has the tradition, expertise and financial clout left to manage and implement any innovations. If they cannot, the Alstom version of the GT26 Ansaldo has acquired is already outdated. Especially since Siemens, GE and Mitsubishi have H-class machines in operation and are already moving on to H+ engines. GE’s HA-class machine (9HA) is operational in France for EdeF (62.22% claimed efficiency). The GT26 is still probably only at the G+ level and Ansaldo will need to get beyond the H-class efficiency level to be a realistic fourth player. If not the GT26 will be consigned – at best – to some niche markets. The 60Hz (including US) market and the GT24 are not available to Ansaldo and that does not help in the experience stakes.

How long it may take to get a commercial version of the next generation GT36 to market, or whether it will ever see the light of day, is an open question. I have a soft spot for sequential combustion and would like to see it continue. But I will stay pessimistic and remain doubtful that Ansaldo Energia has the wherewithal to remain a serious player with this technology.

And hope to be proved wrong.

Alstom GT26

Alstom GT26

 

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Obama has a new strategy against ISIS – he’s going to edit them out of existence

June 20, 2016

Everything else having failed, Obama will now edit ISIS out of existence (and note that Politico is more than a little Obama friendly).

There is denial and there is Denial …. and then there is Barack Obama. At some point the denial is an expression of cowardice (when your actions are subordinated to your fears). The governing fears here are the fear of upsetting Saudi Arabia and the fear of being called an Islamophobe.

Politico: 

Florida Gov. Rick Scott on Monday assailed the Justice Department’s decision to redact the Orlando shooter’s declaration of allegiance to the Islamic State in transcripts of 911 calls from the June 12 shooting as another example “of not focusing on the evil here.”

“This is evil, this is ISIS. It’s radical Islam. At some point, we lost 49 lives here and we lost a journalist who was beheaded by ISIS,” the Republican governor told Fox News’ Bill Hemmer on “America’s Newsroom,” referring to the shooting last Sunday and the 2014 beheading of journalist Steven Sotloff, who was from Florida. “We need a president that’s going to say I care about destroying ISIS.”

Attorney General Loretta Lynch reasoned to CNN Sunday that the reason for the edits “is to avoid re-victimizing those people that went through this horror,” adding that it “will contain the substance of his conversations.”

“I have no idea what she means. But I can tell you what: I have gone to funerals, I’ve sat down and cried with the parents. I’ve gone and visited individuals in the hospitals. They are grieving. Now, they want answers. If it was my family I would want answers. We all would like answers. She should release everything that doesn’t impact the investigation. I can understand if it impacted the investigation until this is finished, I get that. But she is not saying that. It doesn’t make any sense to me. We have to get serious about destroying ISIS.”

The federal government’s decision did not sit well with other Fox News guests on Monday morning, either. “That would mean during the Second World War if I called up and said ‘I am part of the Nazi movement, I’ve joined here in the United States, and I’m going kill 49 Americans and we left out ‘Nazi movement,'” Rudy Giuliani said Monday on “Fox & Friends.”

The redactions represent a “degree of denial” for the United States, Giuliani said, adding that it “helps to cause the terrorists to be encouraged to commit more attacks.”

If you stop mentioning them, maybe they will go away.

 

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Markets assume that BREXIT chances died with Jo Cox

June 20, 2016

The markets are all up sharply today. It seems as if the murder of MP Jo Cox has put paid to the small chance of a BREXIT win and that the financial industry is now assuming that any BREXIT will not happen. It is not just the FTSE but markets all across Europe which are showing gains of 2 – 3+%. Even in japan and Hong Kong, markets are buoyed by the apparent risk of a BREXIT receding. Gold is down by about 1%.

markets 20th June 2016 c1300 -- Reuters

markets 20th June 2016 c1300 — Reuters

The relief in the markets is palpable.

Of course, there is still a faint possibility that BREXIT could win, but elections, like markets, depend upon mood.  There is plenty of anti-EU sentiment which will not go away so easily. But the dominant mood now, I think, is that Jo Cox’s murderer cannot be seen to have won. For the markets, better the blundering and fumbling EU and the ECB than the uncertainty of a BREXIT.

BREXIT died with Jo Cox.

 

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UK likely to vote to remain but fundamental flaws in the EU concept are now exposed

June 20, 2016

I see the BREXIT vote as an opportunity to correct the glaring flaws in the EU concept of a Holy European Empire. Whether BREXIT wins or not in this vote, the EU will no longer be able to just ignore the disconnect between the concept and the bulk of the voters/tax payers in the EU. Of course if BREXIT does not win, it will slow down the inevitable reforms that the EU must introduce.

I suspect that finally the fear of leaving will govern and that BREXIT will lose by a small margin. The EU politicians and bureaucrats will probably tout this as a win for the EU concept but, in fact, they will have to prepare for drawing back the various EU encroachments into the territory of national sovereignty.

NYT: 

There is no argument that the European Union is a flawed institution. Its dysfunction has been on display in its fitful handling of the Greek debt and refugee crises, its bureaucracy is pathetically slow to recognize or correct its failings and it often acts like an out-of-touch and undemocratic elite. Part of that is the inherent inefficiency of an institution of 28 member states with big differences in size, wealth and democratic traditions, and which participate to different degrees in the single currency and border-free zone.

Yet the E.U. is an extraordinary achievement, a voluntary union of nations whose histories include some of the bloodiest wars ever waged. However flawed the bloc, it has replaced blood feuds with a single market, shared values, free travel and labor mobility. Britain has always been something of an outlier in the E.U., joining what began as the European Coal and Steel Community two decades after it was formed and declining to participate in either the euro currency or the borderless Schengen zone. Yet there is no question that Britain has benefited from membership, both economically and as a strong voice in shaping E.U. policy.

The euroskepticism that has led to the British referendum, and that forms a strong component of the right-wing nationalist parties on the rise in many European countries, is not about efficiency or history. It is about ill-defined frustration with the complexities of a changing world and a changing Europe, a loss of faith in mainstream politicians and experts, a nostalgia for a past when nations decided their own fates and kept foreigners out. To those who hold these views, the European Union is the epitome of all that has gone wrong, an alien bureaucracy deaf to the traditions and values of its members. Not surprisingly, Mr. Trump and the French politician Marine Le Pen both favor Brexit.

I see parallels in the “anti-establishment” views embodied in euroscepticism and in the “anti-establishment” views of the Trump supporters in the US. In both cases the revolt is a reaction to what is perceived as the over-weening arrogance of a political, liberal, elite who insist on defining political correctness and on telling the electorate that they know best what is good for them.

In 2016, both in the EU and in the US, it is immigration and the flawed concept of multiculturalism which is dominating. It is occupying this ground which may well determine many of the elections. In fact the rise of the right-wing nationalists in Europe is the pendulum swinging back from 3 decades of self-righteous, social democratic dogma. Europe has moved further left in the 3 decades after communism fell than while communism was still an acceptable philosophy. But I note that some of the right-wing parties (Sweden, Denmark, France …. ) are losing some support as more of the centrist parties adopt more restrictive measures on immigration and take away this ground from the right. Take Trump’s immigration ground away from him and he will not stand a chance.

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Contrary to alarmist rumour, Greenland ice sheet melt lower and mass higher than the long term average

June 16, 2016

We have had an El Niño year which has only just reached neutral or slightly negative conditions. Whether it will be followed by a La Niña will not be clear until the negative conditions persist for some 9 months.

Recently we have had screaming headlines claiming that the Greenland ice melt in April was unprecedented and the region was experiencing its hottest year ever and catastrophe was nigh (here, here and here). Arctic amplification was to blame. The world was about to be swamped. But it was all just nonsense. All just the usual alarmist exaggerations. Some of it was just the usual editorial creativity and some was misconduct bordering on fraud.

The melt area according to the Danish Meteorological Institute had a peak or two – as it does – but is running well under the mean:

The percentage of the total area of the ice where the melting occurred from January 1 until today (in blue). For comparison the average for the period 1990-2013 is shown in the dark grey curve.

The percentage of the total area of the ice where the melting occurred from January 1 until today (in blue). For comparison the average for the period 1990-2013 is shown in the dark grey curve. (Source DMI)

Similarly the surface ice mass balance shows that it is currently running well above the long term mean (1990 – 2013):

The accumulated surface mass balance from September 1st to now (blue line, Gt) and the season 2011-12 (red) which had very high summer melt in Greenland. For comparison, the mean curve from the period 1990-2013 is shown (dark grey). (Source DMI)

The accumulated surface mass balance from September 1st to now (blue line, Gt) and the season 2011-12 (red) which had very high summer melt in Greenland. For comparison, the mean curve from the period 1990-2013 is shown (dark grey). (Source DMI)

Since September 1st, the Greenland ice sheet has gained about 550 billion tonnes (Gt) of mass, which is higher than the long term mean by some 5 -10%.

Ah Well!

I give it about 5 years before the global warming pendulum swings back to an alarmist global freezing meme.

 

 

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Could Trump get concessions from the NRA that are beyond Obama and Clinton?

June 16, 2016

It is strange but true that a left-wing government can succeed in implementing an austerity package where a right-wing government cannot. The left leaning government in Greece has implemented austerity measures which would have caused riots if implemented by a conservative administration. Of course there has to be a practical imperative to do so and the apparent betrayal of ideology is excused on the necessity of realpolitik. Similarly right-leaning governments are excused for going against their natural instincts when being heretical. Increasing taxes or increasing public spending can be introduced where a left-leaning government would be critcised for blindly following ideology.

Now it is reported that in the wake of the Orlando massacre, Donald Trump is trying to get the NRA to cooperate in preventing people on watch lists from easily acquiring automatic weapons.

CNBC: Presidential hopeful Donald Trump on Wednesday said he will meet with the leading U.S. gun rights group about preventing people on a government terrorism “watch list” from buying guns, a move that may put pressure on fellow Republicans to enact new gun restrictions following the Orlando massacre. …….

…… The National Rifle Association, a politically influential lobbying group that claims more than 4 million members and has played a key role in thwarting gun control legislation in the U.S. Congress, on May 20 endorsed Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee.

“I will be meeting with the NRA, who has endorsed me, about not allowing people on the terrorist watch list, or the no fly list, to buy guns,” Trump wrote on Twitter.

Trump last month told an NRA convention that he would protect the constitutional right to bear arms. He accused the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton, of wanting to abolish that right, which she says is false. Trump said in a November television interview he would support gun restrictions for someone on a “watch list” who is “an enemy of state.”

Trump NRA

I observe that when the same suggestions have been made by Democrats it invites immediate and instant opposition from the NRA.

But it could be different coming from Trump. The suggestion is basic common sense and unexceptionable. While Paris and Brussels demonstrate that even stringent gun restrictions will not stop terrorists from carrying out their atrocities, it may well make their life a little harder. But for the NRA to take a Democratic suggestion on board is not genetically possible. But accepting a suggestion coming from Trump – who they have endorsed for President – offers both Trump and the NRA a potential win/win. Trump could do with demonstrating his effectiveness in achieving something – even when just a Presidential candidate – which Barack Obama has not been able to do in 8 years with the full range of Presidential powers available to him. The NRA has the possibility of demonstrating their consideration not only of “individual rights” but also of “the national interest”.

So my expectation is that the NRA may well accept restricting gun sales to people on “watch” lists or “no-fly” lists and that Trump will be able to take the credit.

 

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Hillary Clinton finally goes where Obama dreads to step

June 15, 2016

No doubt it was under some pressure from Trump, but Hillary Clinton has finally used the term “radical Islam” when referring to their terrorist acts. She has gone further and it was long overdue. She has finally entered territory that Obama is terrified of coming close to. She has connected the terrorists with their mentors and financiers in Saudi Arabia and Qatar and Kuwait. There is an element of hypocrisy involved here, since the Saudis have also contributed large amounts to the Clinton Foundation and her campaign. Nevertheless, it was a much needed statement from Hillary.

Zerohedge:

HILLARY CLINTON: The third area that demands attention is preventing radicalization and countering efforts by ISIS and other international terrorist networks to recruit in the United States and Europe. For starters, it is long past time for the Saudis, the Qataris and the Kuwaitis and others to stop their citizens from funding extremist organizations. And they should stop supporting radical schools and mosques around the world that have set too many young people on a path towards extremism. We also have to use all our capabilities to counter jihadist propaganda online. This is something that I spend a lot of time on at the State Department.

Jordan’s official news agency, Petra News Agency, reported on Sunday citing the Saudi crown price, namely that Saudi Arabia is a major funder of Hillary Clinton’s campaign to become the next president of the United States.

……. the Petra News Agency published on Sunday what it described as exclusive comments from Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman which included a claim that Riyadh has provided 20 percent of the total funding to the prospective Democratic candidate’s campaign.

The connection with Saudi Arabia is something that Barack Obama is terrified to even think about – let alone mention. Instead he castigated Trump for focusing on the words “radical Islam”. But Trump had a point when he said that Obama was more angry with him (Trump) than with the shooter.

I am not sure whether it is a fear of being seen as an Islamophobe or a fear of offending Saudi Arabia which is more important to Obama. Probably they are equally important to him. But they are both fears. His 8 years in office have been dominated by his fears of taking actions. A sort of parlaysis by analysis. And Obama’s wilful denial (by omission) that “radical Islam” has to be confronted does not impress.

Whether the Orlando shooter was gay or not does not mitigate his actions. There are some gay commentators who seem more concerned about labelling the massacre a “homophobic” action – and suppressing any connection to radical Islam – just to win “brownie points” for the gay community (Owen Jones for example). But that is to miss the point. Equally trying to blame the US gun regulations is also missing the point. With the examples of Paris and Brussels, Obama knows that, but it is a convenient diversion and another excuse to avoid confronting radical Islamic terrorism.

Of course, all Muslims are not terrorists. But more terrorists are inspired by radical Islamic perversions than can be ignored. All Buddhist monks are not bigots, but many in Myanmar (and in Thailand and in Sri Lanka) are and are too many to be ignored or denied. Far too many of the “Hindu God-men” are bigots and perverts.

To confront religious extremism and fanaticism is not an attack on the religion. Obama needs, at least, to be able to distinguish that. (Of course, no organised religion whatsoever ought to exist and impose its opinions on anybody — but that is a different story).

 

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Minnows Iceland make Cristiano Ronaldo a whining, cry-baby

June 15, 2016

I watched parts of the Iceland -Portugal game and was fortunate to be watching when Iceland equalised. I was also watching when Ronaldo missed an open goal and a certain winner just a few minutes from the end.

And the prima donna, that Ronaldo certainly is, started his whining. He accused Iceland of having a “small mentality”. Oh Dear! But their mentality is immense compared to his.

The Guardian:

Iceland have produced another eruption. The smallest country to qualify for the European Championship marked their tournament debut with a result to savouragainst Portugal, although that and their memorable celebrations were not the only tremors felt in Saint-Étienne. Cristiano Ronaldo reacted to a restorative night for the game with all the petulance and pettiness of a spoilt child.

“Iceland didn’t try anything,” whined the Portuguese captain. “They were just defend, defend, defend and playing on the counterattack. It was a lucky night for them. We should have three points but we are OK. I thought they’d won the Euros the way they celebrated at the end. It was unbelievable. When they don’t try to play and just defend, defend, defend, this in my opinion shows a small mentality and they are not going to do anything in the competition.” They have already accomplished more than expected and were at one with their fans after the final whistle while Ronaldo raged at the referee.

Even in a tiny nation’s finest hour in football, Ronaldo demands the limelight and so it is gratifying the prima donna was partly responsible for Iceland producing a performance to remember. His glaring miss five minutes from time, heading Nani’s cross straight at goalkeeper Hannes Halldorsson, not only prevented the Real Madrid man making history as the first player to score in four consecutive Euros but marked the moment the party started for Iceland. The roar that emanated from those in blue behind Halldorsson’s goal said it all. They knew. Iceland had arrived in style.

 

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Sweden pays most per capita into the EU

June 14, 2016

A very revealing map by Gravel King on Reddit. He writes

Some people asked for a per capita map of this post.

I took the figures from that post and divided it by the population of every single EU country.

I apologise in advance if I made some mistakes when colouring the countries (I wasn’t sure if the Faroe islands had to be part of Denmark, for instance.) or some other mistakes.

Per capita contribution to or from the EU between 2010 – andf 2014. Eleven countries are “givers” and 17 are “takers”. Sweden pays most into the EU (more’s the pity).

EU contribitions per capita 2010-2014 (map by Gravel King)

EU contribitions per capita 2010-2014 (map by Gravel King)

 

 

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Orlando was primarily about radical Islam not about gun availability

June 13, 2016

Common sense is the victim when political correctness reigns. Gun controls are much stricter in Europe than in the US, but that didn’t stop Paris or Brussels or London.

Those in the US who don’t wish to confront radical Islam are spinning the Orlando event into a gun control issue. I perceive a tendency among the (mainly liberal) media to ignore both the shooter’s declared allegiance to ISIS and ISIS’ claim of responsibility. There is a reluctance to address the shooter’s path to radicalisation and, at 28, he was no spring chicken. The influence of his father and his support for the Taliban is given very little space. His being interviewed three times by the FBI gets some attention but not much. It is seen as more important not to blame the vast bulk of moderate Muslims than to confront the radical elements within Islam. Political correctness is clearly in the camp of cowardice.

Instead of blaming radical Islam there is a clear effort to blame the availability of guns. But this spin rings hollow. The politically correct sections of European media (BBC, The Guardian ….) are also closing their eyes to the influence of radical Islam and focusing on gun availability. After Paris and Brussels they should know better. Obama has made his standard speech after a mass shooting for the 14th time during his time in office. His words stand out because of his reluctance to pin the blame on radical Islam and not for his empty – and now largely discounted – boilerplate words about love and hate.

Orlando now joins San Bernadino and London and Paris and Brussels and Bagdad as victims of terrorism inspired by radical Shia Islam – and probably ordered (loosely) by ISIS. The US will have to get used to the fact that radicalised Muslim maniacs are now among them and many of them were born in the US. For someone with an agenda, stricter gun control laws are unlikely to be any kind of a deterrent.

For both Europe and the US, it is of little value to ignore the fact that among the millions of refugees on the move from the Middle East and North Africa there are going to be significant numbers of proponents of radical Islam and “terrorists”. Political correctness and molly-coddling radical Islam for fear of being labeled Islamophobic will not change that.

 

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