Posts Tagged ‘Alarmism’

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Indian “superbug” report is a scare to hurt medical tourism?

August 12, 2010

The Times of India is not impressed by the report in The Lancet Infectious Diseases Journal which claims that “India also provides cosmetic surgery for Europeans and Americans, and it is likely the bacteria will spread worldwide.”

cartoon from indianmta.blogspot.com

Scientists have tracked down a drug-resistant superbug that infects patients and causes multiple organ failure to Indian hospitals but doctors here see in it the germ of a move to damage the country’s booming medical tourism industry. While the study has the medical world turning its focus on infection control policies in Indian hospitals, the Indian Council of Medical Research has alleged a bias in the report and said it is an attempt to hurt medical tourism in the country that is taking away huge custom from hospitals in the West. “Such infections can flow in from any part of the world. It’s unfair to say it originated from India,” said ICMR director Dr VM Katoch. The superbug NDM-1 (New Delhi metallo-beta-lactamase) is named after the national capital, where a Swedish patient was reportedly infected after undergoing a surgery in 2008.

Senior doctors working in infection control said India lacks policies on antibiotics, infection control and registries for hospital-acquired infections. By the ICMR director’s own admission, India cannot scientifically fight back allegations of being the source of such superbugs, as the country does not have a registry of such hospital-acquired infections.

“Two in every five patients admitted to hospitals acquire infections. This extends the patient’s stay in the hospital, increases the expenses and causes side-effects,” said Dr Dilip Mathai, head of the department of internal medicine, Christian Medical College, Vellore.

The Lancet report  is causing some alarm within the medical tourism fraternity in India and doctors are rushing to defend the business.

But doctors in India said there was little chance this bacteria would infect overseas “health tourism” visitors. “Most of these bacteria are mostly transmitted to ICU patients, those in ventilators or critically ill patients. Since overseas patients come for selective surgeries, chances of them getting these bugs are negligible,” said Dr Monica Mahajan, senior consultant at Delhi-based Max Healthcare. Dr Amit Verma, director of critical care medicine at Fortis said he did not anticipate any major impact to medical tourism in India. The sample size of the study was very small to arrive at a conclusion, he said, adding that the chances of the bacteria becoming a global epidemic was negligible due to the restricted transmission capability of the bacteria.

Somehow the glib statement that “Most of these bacteria are mostly transmitted to ICU patients, those in ventilators or critically ill patients. Since overseas patients come for selective surgeries, chances of them getting these bugs are negligible” does not inspire much confidence!

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Posted in Alarmism, Ethics, Medicine | 1 Comment »

The pandemic is over but 300 million vaccines were sold for a small fortune

August 11, 2010

The world is no longer in the middle of an H1N1 pandemic, the World Health Organisation has announced. We are now in the “post pandemic period”, Margaret Chan, director-general of the WHO, has announced.

But as reported by the The  Star in Toronto,

Three members of the emergency committee that advised Director General Dr. Margaret Chan on the H1N1 pandemic work at public health agencies in the United States and United Kingdom that have received research funding from pharmaceutical companies or their industry associations, and a fourth member had previously worked as a paid consultant for five different vaccine manufacturers.

The international health authority came under fire in June when a prominent medical journal alleged scientists with undisclosed financial ties to drug manufacturers had helped develop its pandemic strategies.

The article noted that guidelines published in 2004 urged countries to stockpile antiviral medication in advance to avoid scrambling for supplies when an outbreak occurred, but the WHO failed to disclose that three of the committee members who contributed to the document had at one point received funding from companies that manufacture antiviral drugs.

The joint investigation by the BMJ (formerly called the British Medical Journal) and the London-based Bureau of Investigative Journalism also spoke out against the WHO for keeping the lid on the names of its 15-member H1N1 emergency committee.

Over 300 Million vaccines were sold during this alarmist nonsense.

Sounds like fraud.

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Posted in Ethics, Medicine | 2 Comments »

Ethanol more damaging to the Gulf than BP oil spill

August 8, 2010

Supposed environmental solutions often create new problems.

Dead zone in gulf linked to ethanol production

While the BP oil spill has been labeled the worst environmental catastrophe in recent U.S. history, a biofuel is contributing to a Gulf of Mexico “dead zone” the size of New Jersey that scientists say could be every bit as harmful to the gulf.

Each year, nitrogen used to fertilize corn, about a third of which is made into ethanol, leaches from Midwest croplands into the Mississippi River and out into the gulf, where the fertilizer feeds giant algae blooms. As the algae dies, it settles to the ocean floor and decays, consuming oxygen and suffocating marine life.

Known as hypoxia, the oxygen depletion kills shrimp, crabs, worms and anything else that cannot escape. The dead zone has doubled since the 1980s and is expected this year to grow as large as 8,500 square miles and hug the Gulf Coast from Alabama to Texas.

The gulf dead zone is the second-largest in the world, after one in the Baltic Sea. Scientists say the biggest culprit is industrial-scale corn production. Corn growers are heavy users of both nitrogen and pesticides. Vast monocultures of corn and soybeans, both subsidized by the federal government, have displaced diversified farms and grasslands throughout the Mississippi Basin.

“The subsidies are driving farmers toward more corn,” said Gene Turner, a zoologist at Louisiana State University. “More nitrate comes off corn fields than it does off of any other crop by far. And nitrogen is driving the formation of the dead zone.”

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Posted in Alarmism, Energy, Environment, Science | 2 Comments »

The sins of BP and “the greatest environmental disaster ever”

August 8, 2010

Thames in danger of impending catastrophe

Father Thames in Victorian England

Considering that the BP oil spill has been designated the “greatest environmental disaster ever”, the danger to the Thames from clumsy motorists has not been properly appreciated.

If we conveniently forget Bhopal and focus solely on the Gulf of Mexico, then spilling about 2 litres of engine oil into the Thames would be equivalent to the concentration of oil in the Gulf.

A very nice sanity check by Raedwald.

(More on Rædwald, of East Anglia here . He was called Rex Anglorum – King of the Angles by Bede but presumably has not been much of a role model for the University of East Anglia – Climatic Research Unit).

The volume of the Gulf of Mexico is 2,424,000 cubic kilometers, or 6.43 * 1017 US gallons. The volume of oil spilt is estimated at 20m gallons to 50m US gallons; let’s take the max, 5 * 107 gallons. That’s one part of oil to 1.29 * 1010 parts of water. The volume of the Thames at mid tide between Teddington and Gravesend is about 2.4 * 107 cubic metres (633 * 107 US gallons, or 127 times the total volume of the BP oil leaked). To replicate the ‘environmental disaster’ , I’ll therefore have to empty 1.87 litres of engine oil into the river.

Over 75% of the Gulf oil spill has now dispersed.

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Posted in Alarmism, Environment | 1 Comment »

When “models” and fudge factors are touted as evidence

August 6, 2010

Doomsday scenarios are taken to be evidence!!

Dr. Nepstad is at it again but he has a great deal of money to protect.

The same actors, the same advocacy and the same techniques to forecast DOOM.

Only this time drought, land use, illegal logging and climate change  are taken together to provide the necessary forcings to provide the catastrophe. It is called a “study” and implies some objectivity but the models use a variety of fudge factors to decide on the impact of the various variables. It might be more accurate to call it The Doomsday Scenarios since the “study” is no more than the generation of scenarios to come to a pre-determined conclusion. The conclusion is of course that we must immediately reduce greenhouse gas emissions drastically!

The Daily Telegraph reports today that

Rainforest loss may have been overstated, scientists

Climate change and illegal logging could wipe out rainforest wildlife by 2100

Daniel Nepstad, an ecologist at the Woods Hole Research Center in Massachusetts, said only a cut in greenhouse gases can save the world’s wildlife.

“This study is the strongest evidence yet that the world’s natural ecosystems will undergo profound changes — including severe alterations in their species composition — through the combined influence of climate change and land use,” he said.

Unfortunately Dr. Nepstad is already rather tainted. He works for the Woods Hole Research Centre which is associated in Brazil with the Instituto de Pesquiza Ambiental da Amazonia (IPAM).  IPAM is a Brazilian advocacy group. He appears to have a vested interest in magnifying the value of carbon contained within the Rain Forests.

He is entitled to advocate for his point of view of course and to advocate for getting even more funding but his advocacy is not science.

Booker had this to say about 3 weeks ago:

This curious episode may also point to another reason why WWF and Woods Hole have been so active in recent years to promote concern over the danger of global warming for the Amazon rainforest. As I revealed here on March 20, they have been closely allied in support of a scheme known as REDD (Reduction in Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation of Tropical Forests). Its aim is to turn the CO2 in forest trees into “carbon credits”, saleable on the world market to allow firms to continue emitting CO2. Backed by $80 million from the World Bank, WWF, Woods Hole and IPAM are partners in a consortium, supported by the Brazilian government, to protect and manage a vast area of forest in the Tumucumaque region, in return for which they would have the right to sell its carbon credits. In 2007 Dr Nepstad published a formula which would allow the carbon contained in the entire forest to be valued at $60 billion.

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Posted in Alarmism, Ethics, Non-Science, Science | Comments Off on When “models” and fudge factors are touted as evidence

Alarmism: Exaggerations aplenty

August 4, 2010

1. A solar storm yes, but hardly a Tsunami

The headlines were alarmist as usual: NASA scientists braced for ‘solar tsunami’ to hit earth, but reality was a little less alarming. A C3 flare caused a G2 geomagnetic storm  (G1 being the weakest and G5 the strongest) with a Kp value of 6. (Kp of 5 at G1 and 9 at G5).

image:http://solarcycle24.com/

The Northern lights could be particularly spectacular but a moderate G2 storm can be expected to have some relatively minor but significant effects:

  • Power systems: high-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, long-duration storms may cause transformer damage.
  • Spacecraft operations: corrective actions to orientation may be required by ground control; possible changes in drag affect orbit predictions.
  • Other systems: HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes, and aurora has been seen as low as New York and Idaho (typically 55° geomagnetic lat.).

From http://www.spaceweather.com/ The solar storm of August 1st sent two CMEs toward Earth. The first one arrived yesterday, August 3rd, sparking mild but beautiful Northern Lights over Europe and North America (see below). The second CME is still en route. NOAA forecasters estimate a 35% chance of major geomagnetic storms when the cloud arrives on August 4th or 5th. High-latitude sky watchers should remain alert for auroras.

In Solar Cycle 24  sunspot activity continues to undershoot Solar Cycle 5.

2.The media and the environmental community were up in arms about “the worlds worst environmental disaster” and BP has been demonised by the US press but we now learn that 75% of the oil leakage in the Gulf of Mexico has already dispersed and that the Oil From Spill Poses Little Additional Risk.

The government is expected to announce on Wednesday that three-quarters of the oil from the Deepwater Horizon leak has already evaporated, dispersed, been captured or otherwise eliminated — and that much of the rest is so diluted that it does not seem to pose much additional risk of harm.

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Posted in Alarmism, Business, Environment, Media, Science | 1 Comment »

Global warming – science versus political correctness

August 3, 2010

When a scientific question diverges from a treatment of evidence, facts or theories it is often based on beliefs (and a belief by definition comes into play only when facts are lacking). Hypotheses and theories necessarily must rely – to some extent – on belief.

As soon a question regarding facts becomes instead a question regarding beliefs it leads to a political label (right wing, left wing, capitalist, communist, liberal, fascist). A political label generally assumes an adherence to a particular set of beliefs on many diverse topics. A scientific discussion then becomes a political argument. Positions on any topic under the umbrella of the political label – whether or not relevant to the topic under discussion – are then used to “discredit” or “support” a particular belief.

But I note that the “tools” used in political argument are the same whichever side of the political divide one is. These “tools” are used to reinforce the views of those already in agreement or to “convert” those on the fence.  They are only rarely used to “convert” those on the other side of the divide. These tools are for the manipulation of belief and have nothing whatever to do with science or the scientific method. The “tools” commonly used are

  • Alarmism (or the pseudo-science precautionary principle which permits common-sense to be ignored)
  • Claiming to be the “majority” view (and this is resorted to because a “majority” in a democracy is ascribed the “right” to summarily over-rule and oppress a minority)
  • Guilt, wrongness, injustice or immorality  – all by association
  • Ridicule
  • Distortion, misrepresentation and even fraud
  • Inquistions against heretics and witch hunts

The entire AGW argument – for it  has degenerated into a political argument and is no longer a scientific discussion (if it ever was one) – is permeated by the use of such tools. The sound and fury mask the underlying question which remains:

What is the magnitude and significance of man-made effects on the global climate?

My position is that I don’t know.

I believe that it is not of any great significance – but not that it is absent. I believe that whatever effect man has pales into insignificance compared to what the sun does primarily through the oceans and – only then – through and to the atmosphere.

There are those who believe – note “believe” – that posing the question is itself a matter of belief and denies the obvious. For posing the question I have been given various political labels. But the simple fact is that the answer is not obvious and not a settled science for me.

It is entirely a political matter – and perfectly valid as a political matter but it is not a matter of science – when the belief in something so dreadful in the future – but which cannot be proven – is used as a vehicle for satisfying greed (carbon trading, so-called environmental subsidies or research funding) or a political agenda.

There is nothing wrong with having a political agenda. But it cannot be labelled science.

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Posted in Alarmism, Environment, Non-Science, Philosophy, Science | Comments Off on Global warming – science versus political correctness

Silly Season continues……

July 23, 2010

The New Scientist today carries (at least ) two  Silly Season articles:

(image :noiri.blogspot.com)

1. In one, Clive Hamilton, a self-proclaimed “public intellectual” (whatever that is ) is concerned that evil is abroad and fanatics are planning to inject sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere to counter global warming. “An evil atmosphere is forming around geoengineering”

2. The second article by Stephen Battersby, a self-chartered environmental health practitioner (whatever that is) is worried that the oxygen content is decreasing to dangerously low levels. “Physical labour would become harder, for instance, and infant mortality would increase”. Fortunately he also finds that this will not matter too much because we would first encounter “the vastly greater peril of extreme climate change caused by burning all that carbon. With the ice caps rapidly melting, today’s coasts being inundated and the tropics turning into desert, the least of the world’s worries will be a few wheezing yaks”.

The silly season continues for at least another month.

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Back again

July 19, 2010
  1. Watched the World Cup final at a bar in Bilbao. Spain were worthy winners but watch out for Germany in the next 2 Cups. Thank goodness it did not go to penalties. The Dutch approach was a little disturbing. The celebrations in Bilbao were not as exuberant as shown on TV in Madrid. Not too many Spanish flags to be seen.
  2. Paul (Pablo) the psychic octopus can retire with flying colours. He should be granted free Spanish mussels for life. A psychic elephant (named Bua) has been discovered in Sweden!
  3. Southern hemisphere suffering from a cold wave. Even after the record winter in the Northern Hemisphere, alarmists still persist in believing that 2010 will be the hottest year ever!!! But the “homogenisation” of data to show this is less than convincing.
  4. La Nina conditions are establishing themselves and cool temperature for the next few years are likely. However, also coming is major drop of .5 to .7C in the global temps which will take us below normal for a time. In addition, the reason for the drop will easily be linked with the cooling of the Pacific, which will remain in its cool stage for the next 30 years. Once the Atlantic, still warm, goes into its cool stage in 10-15 years, global temps will fall even further, back to where they were in the 1970s. Some of the warming alarmists of today were alarmist about a coming ice age in 1976.
  5. The sun is remarkably quiet and undershooting even the low predictions for Solar Cycle 24 for flux and sunspot numbers. Perhaps SC24 will even undershoot SC5. Landscheidt minimum probability is increasing.

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Global Warming: “The science is terrible but—perhaps the psychology is good.”

July 10, 2010

Anthony Watts has a post revisiting the late Michael Crichton‘s 2003 lecture at Caltech which I had not seen before.

A lucid and eloquent exposition which I reproduce below. Reading it now in 2010 it is still fresh, applicable and apposite. It should be required reading for any young scientist of the dangers of religion or politics masquerading as science.

“Aliens Cause Global Warming”

A lecture by Michael Crichton
Caltech Michelin Lecture
January 17, 2003

My topic today sounds humorous but unfortunately I am serious. I am going to argue that extraterrestrials lie behind global warming. Or to speak more precisely, I will argue that a belief in extraterrestrials has paved the way, in a progression of steps, to a belief in global warming.

Charting this progression of belief will be my task today.

Let me say at once that I have no desire to discourage anyone from believing in either extraterrestrials or global warming. That would be quite impossible to do. Rather, I want to discuss the history of several widely-publicized beliefs and to point to what I consider an emerging crisis in the whole enterprise of science-namely the increasingly uneasy relationship between hard science and public policy.

I have a special interest in this because of my own upbringing. I was born in the midst of World War II, and passed my formative years at the height of the Cold War. In school drills, I dutifully crawled under my desk in preparation for a nuclear attack.

It was a time of widespread fear and uncertainty, but even as a child I believed that science represented the best and greatest hope for mankind. Even to a child, the contrast was clear between the world of politics-a world of hate and danger, of irrational beliefs and fears, of mass manipulation and disgraceful blots on human history. In contrast, science held different values-international in scope, forging friendships and working relationships across national boundaries and political systems, encouraging a dispassionate habit of thought, and ultimately leading to fresh knowledge and technology that would benefit all mankind. The world might not be avery good place, but science would make it better. And it did. In my lifetime, science has largely fulfilled its promise. Science has been the great intellectual adventure of our age, and a great hope for our troubled and restless world.

But I did not expect science merely to extend lifespan, feed the hungry, cure disease, and shrink the world with jets and cell phones. I also expected science to banish the evils of human thought—prejudice and superstition, irrational beliefs and false fears. I expected science to be, in Carl Sagan’s memorable phrase, “a candle in a demon haunted world.” And here, I am not so pleased with the impact of science. Rather than serving as a cleansing force, science has in some instances been seduced by the more ancient lures of politics and publicity. Some of the demons that haunt our world in recent years are invented by scientists. The world has not benefited from permitting these demons to escape free.

But let’s look at how it came to pass.

(more…)

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