Posts Tagged ‘weather’

European Climate Action: Don’t know what it will cost, don’t know what it will achieve

March 10, 2011

They don’t know why and what it will cost and they don’t know what it will achieve but, The European Commission on Tuesday unveiled a roadmap for building a low-carbon economy by 2050, proposing an 80 percent to 95 percent cut of greenhouse gas emissions from the 1990 levels.

“We need to start the transition towards a competitive low-carbon economy now. The longer we wait, the higher the cost will be,” Connie Hedegaard, European Commissioner for Climate Action, said when presenting the roadmap to European Union (EU) lawmakers in Strasbourg, France.

The roadmap described the cost-effective pathway to reach the EU’s objective of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent to 95 percent of the 1990 levels by 2050. It recommended Europe should achieve it largely through domestic measures since by mid-century international credits to offset emissions will be less widely available than today.

In the meantime Jill Duggan from the European Commission’s Directorate General of Climate Action and the EC’s National Expert on Carbon Markets and Climate Change is in Australia to tell them how good Europe’s emission trading system is and why they should do something similar.  In a radio interview she demonstrated her ignorance.

Jill Duggan

Andrew Bolt

Thursday, March 10, 2011 at 01:38pmDuggan’s utter inability to answer is a scandal – an indictment of global warming politics today. (Listen here):

AB:  Can I just ask; your target is to cut Europe’s emissions by 20% by 2020?

JD:  Yes.

AB:  Can you tell me how much – to the nearest billions – is that going to cost Europe do you think?

JD:  No, I can’t tell you but I do know that the modelling shows that it’s cheaper to start earlier rather than later, so  it’s cheaper to do it now rather than put off action.

AB:  Right.  You wouldn’t quarrel with Professor Richard Tol – who’s not a climate sceptic – but is professor at the Economic and Social Research Institute in Dublin?  He values it at about $250 billion.  You wouldn’t quarrel with that?

JD:  I probably would actually.  I mean, I don’t know.  It’s very, very difficult to quantify.  You get different changes, don’t you?  And one of the things that’s happening in Europe now is that many governments – such as the UK government and the German government – would like the targets to be tougher because they see it as a real stimulus to the economy.

AB:  Right.  Well you don’t know but you think it isn’t $250 billion.

JD:  I think you could get lots of different academics coming up with lots of different figures.

AB:  That’s right.  You don’t know but that’s the figure that I’ve got in front of me.  For that investment.  Or for whatever the investment is.  What’s your estimation of how much – because the object ultimately of course is to lower the world’s temperatures – what sort of temperature reduction do you imagine from that kind of investment?

JD:  Well, what we do know is that to have an evens chance of keeping temperature increases globally to 2°C – so that’s increases – you’ve got to reduce emissions globally by 50% by 2050.

AB:  Yes, I accept that, but from the $250 billion – or whatever you think the figure is – what do you think Europe can achieve with this 20% reduction in terms of cutting the world’s temperature?  Because that’s, in fact, what’s necessary.  What do you think the temperature reduction will be?

JD:  Well, obviously, Europe accounts for 14% of global emissions.  It’s 500 or 550 million people.  On its own it cannot do that.  That is absolutely clear.

AB:  Have you got a figure in your mind?  You don’t know the cost.  Do you know the result?

JD:  I don’t have a cost figure in my mind. Nor, one thing I do know, obviously, is that Europe acting alone will not solve this problem alone.

AB:  So if I put a figure to you – I find it odd that you don’t know the cost and you don’t know the outcome – would you quarrel with this assessment:  that by 2100 – if you go your way and if you’re successful – the world’s temperatures will fall by 0.05°C?  Would you agree with that?

JD:  Sorry, can you just pass that by me again?  You’re saying that if Europe acts alone?

AB:  If just Europe alone – for this massive investment – will lower the world’s temperature with this 20% target (if it sustains that until the end of this century) by 0.05°C.  Would you quarrel with that?

JD:  Well, I think the climate science would not be that precise.  Would it?

AB:  Ah, no, actually it is, Jill.  You see this is what I’m curious about;  that you’re in charge of a massive program to re-jig an economy.  You don’t know what it costs.  And you don’t know what it’ll achieve.

JD:  Well, I think you can look at lots of modelling which will come up with lots of different costs.

AB:  Well what’s your modelling?  That’s the one that everyone’s quoting.  What’s your modelling?

JD:  Well, ah, ah. Let me talk about what we have done in Europe and what we have seen as the benefits.  In Europe, in Germany you could look at, there’s over a million new jobs that have been created by tackling climate change, by putting in place climate policies.  In the UK there’s many hundreds of thousand of jobs.

Full article and transcript is here.

The demonisation of carbon dioxide will probably continue for another 5 to 10 years until it becomes apparent that we are actually in a cooling period and therefore that man-made carbon dioxide is irrelevant and immaterial.

2010 was coldest year in Sweden in 23 years and coldest in Norway since 1941

March 8, 2011

The 2010 winter cold can be coupled to the NAO and to large blocking high pressure areas: image smhi

My actual experiences during 2010 (in Asia and in Northern Europe) and my very real electricity bills are far more compelling than fudged statistics and Hockey Stick Illusions from the global warming alarmists. The reality is that we are in for 2 or 3 decades of cooling courtesy of the sun and man-made carbon dioxide is of little consequence. The sun drives the ocean currents and the North Atlantic Oscillation was negative as it was for the 2009/10 winter.

The global warming / carbon dioxide scare is driven not only by carbon trading scams and catastrophe promoting insurance companies but also by so-called climate scientists who have lost the scepticism that is at the heart of science and developed a Nostradamus complex.

From Stockholm News:

Most people who live in Sweden most certainly remember some really cold months last year, particularly the winter months of January, February and December. There was for certain a serious heat wave in July. But that did not help out: 2010 was the coldest year in Sweden in 23 years.

The Swedish Weather Agency’s preliminary estimations show that Sweden as a whole had around one degree Celsius below normal temperatures last year.

Since 1987, all years have been warmer than normal, except in 1996, which had a small temperature deficit. “Normal” in this context is the average for the years 1961-1990.

The coldest part of the country was in the west, and consequently the western neighbouring country of Norway also had a cold last year. Their general temperature was likewise one degree Celsius below normal. This made last year the coldest in Norway since 1941 and the tenth coldest year since 1900, writes the Norwegian Meteorological Institute.


Rivers in the sky

February 12, 2011

Weather (and climate) which are contained within the thin chaotic layer around the earth’s surface are very far away from being “settled science” in spite of what Al Gore and those of his ilk like to pretend.

Unmanned aircraft are now being used in a new programme to study the “atmospheric rivers” which transport vast quantities of rain around the globe.

They’re called atmospheric rivers – narrow regions in Earth’s atmosphere that transport enormous amounts of water vapor across the Pacific or other regions. Aptly nicknamed “rivers in the sky,” they can transport enough water vapor in one day, on average, to flood an area the size of Maryland 0.3 meters (1 foot) deep, or about seven times the average daily flow of water from the Mississippi River into the Gulf of Mexico. The phenomenon was the subject of a recent major emergency preparedness scenario led by the U.S. Geological Survey, “ARkStorm,” which focused on the possibility of a series of strong atmospheric rivers striking California – a scenario of flooding, wind and mudslides the USGS said could cause damages exceeding those of Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

JPL airborne sensor to study 'Rivers in the Sky'

NASA's Global Hawk soars aloft from Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., on a functional check flight of the WISPAR aircraft payload system and science instruments. Credit: NASA Dryden Flight Research Center

While atmospheric rivers are responsible for great quantities of rain that can produce flooding, they also contribute to beneficial increases in snowpack. A series of atmospheric rivers fueled the strong winter storms that battered the U.S. West Coast from western Washington to Southern California from Dec. 10 to 22, 2010, producing 28 to 64 centimeters (11 to 25 inches) of rain in certain areas. The atmospheric rivers also contributed to the snowpack in the Sierras, which received 75 percent of its annual snow by Dec. 22, the first full day of winter.

To improve our understanding of how atmospheric rivers form and behave and evaluate the operational use of unmanned aircraft for investigating these phenomena, NASA scientists, aircraft and sensors will participate in a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-led airborne field campaign slated to begin Feb. 11.

Called Winter Storms and Pacific Atmospheric Rivers, or WISPAR, the field campaign, which continues through the end of February, is designed to demonstrate new technology, contribute to our understanding of atmospheric rivers and assist NOAA in potentially conducting offshore monitoring of atmospheric rivers to aid in future weather predictions.

Read original article.

La Niña and NAO driving current stormy weather

February 8, 2011
During cold La Niña episodes the normal patter...

La Nina Regional impacts: Image via Wikipedia

It may seem obvious (or it should be) that it is ocean currents that dominate weather and man-made effects pale into insignificance in relation to these. But it has been more politically correct to find that every kind of weather event is due to man-made global warming.

But as this article in PhysOrg shows, perhaps the oceans (and the sun) are beginning to get their due (but of course they don’t really care whether anybody believes in them or not – they just carry on).

The term La Niña refers to a period of cooler-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean that occurs as part of natural climate variability. This situation is roughly the opposite of what happens during El Niño (“the boy”) events, when surface waters in this region are warmer than normal. Because the Pacific is the largest ocean on the planet, any significant changes in average conditions there can have consequences for temperature, rainfall and vegetation in distant places. Scientists at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), part of Columbia’s Earth Institute, expect moderate-to-strong La Niña conditions to continue in the tropical Pacific, potentially causing additional shifts in rainfall patterns across many parts of the world in months to come.

These shifts, combined with socioeconomic conditions and other factors, are making some countries more vulnerable. However, La Niña and El Niño conditions actually allow for more accurate seasonal forecasts and help better predict extreme drought or rainfall in some areas. ………..

“Based on current observations and on predictions from models, we see at least a 90 percent chance that La Niña conditions will continue through March,” said IRI’s chief forecaster, Tony Barnston.

Climate scientists have found La Niña’s fingerprints on a number of extreme weather events such as the devastating flood that occurred in Pakistan in 2010, as well as flooding in West Africa, South Africa and most recently in Queensland, Australia, where an area equal to the combined size of France and Germany was underwater. La Niña is also to blame for Cyclone Yasi, one of the strongest to hit Australia, which came ashore on Feb. 2. Cyclone Yasi is the second most damaging Australian cyclone on record after Cyclone Tracy, which struck in 1974.

But La Niña isn’t to blame for the recent severe weather affecting the Northeast. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Niña but by large-scale weather patterns over the U.S., the northern Atlantic Ocean and the Arctic. These are often short-term, and are generally predictable only a week or so in advance. They are the culprits responsible for the dip in temperatures and spike in snow storms in the Midwest and Northeast.

…………

Since 1950, the world has experienced six major La Niña events, wreaking havoc in countries around the world. In 2000, for example, floods associated with La Niña affected 400,000 people in southern Africa, caused at least 96 deaths and left 32,000 homeless.

La Niña conditions typically persist for 9 to 12 months, peaking sometime during the end of the year. But 2010 was a lively year for climate scientists: For the first four months of this year, El Niño conditions prevailed in the tropical Pacific, but that quickly changed, and by June, a La Niña pattern had emerged.

“Last year’s transition from El Niño to La Niña was about the most sudden we’ve ever had,” Barnston said. “When we had rapid flips like this in the past, we sometimes ended up having a two-year La Niña, such as right after the El Niño episodes of 1972 to 1973 and 1997 to 1998.”

Barnston cautions that the likelihood of this happening with the current La Niña is unknown. “Even if we do have a second year of La Niña developing in northern summer 2011, we expect at least a brief return to neutral conditions from May to July of 2011.”

Related:

https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2011/02/03/la-nina-begins-to-show-up-in-global-temperature/

https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2011/02/05/la-nina-will-last-well-into-2011-and-could-extend-into-2012/

https://ktwop.wordpress.com/tag/la-nina/

Current La Niña most intense in 50 years

January 14, 2011

La Niña is expected to continue well into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011.

The latest report from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) noted that “A moderate-to-strong La Niña continued during December 2010 as reflected by well below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.” The CPC report said that La Niña is expected to continue well into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011.

Physorg reports:

New NASA satellite data indicate the current La Niña event in the eastern Pacific has remained strong during November and December 2010.

The La Niña is evident by the large pool cooler than normal (blue and purple) water stretching from the eastern to the central Pacific Ocean, reflecting lower than normal sea surface heights. "This La Niña has strengthened for the past seven months, and is one of the most intense events of the past half century," said Climatologist Bill Patzert of NASA JPL. Credit: NASA JPL/Bill Patzert

A new Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM)/Jason-2 satellite image of the Pacific Ocean that averaged 10 days of data was just released fromNASA. The image, centered on Dec. 26, 2010, was created at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Pasadena, Calif.

“The solid record of La Niña strength only goes back about 50 years and this latest event appears to be one of the strongest ones over this time period,” said Climatologist Bill Patzert of JPL. “It is already impacting weather and climate all around the planet.”

“Although exacerbated by precipitation from a tropical cyclone, rainfalls of historic proportion in eastern Queensland, Australia have led to levels of flooding usually only seen once in a century,” said David Adamec, Oceanographer at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. “The copious rainfall is a direct result of La Niña’s effect on the Pacific trade winds and has made tropical Australia particularly rainy this year.”

The new image depicts places where the Pacific sea surface height is near-normal, higher (warmer) than normal and lower (cooler) than normal. The cooler-than normal pool of water that stretches from the eastern to the central Pacific Ocean is a hallmark of a La Niña event.

Related: https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2011/01/12/la-nina-driving-severe-rains-and-floods-in-brazil-and-australia/

 

Frigid December 2010 was no local phenomenon

January 6, 2011

The frigid December of 2010 was widespread across the Northern Hemisphere and cannot be dismissed as just a local phenomenon.

Sweden: Coldest December in Sweden in 110 years: http://www.thelocal.se/31072/20101226/

UK: 2010 UK’s coldest December since records began: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12122497

Ireland: Met Eireann – coldest December on record: http://www.tv3.ie/article.php?article_id=50973&locID=1.2.&pagename=news

Germany: German Unemployment Unexpectedly Climbs in Coldest December for 40 Years: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-04/german-unemployment-unexpectedly-climbs-during-coldest-december-since-1969.html

USA

Illinois’ December was colder and had more snow than average: http://www.bnd.com/2011/01/05/1539495/december-was-colder-and-had-more.html

Virginia: Explaining the weather: December was a bitter one: http://www2.newsadvance.com/weather/2011/jan/04/explaining-weather-december-was-bitter-one-ar-752921/

Florida:

  1. December coldest on record: http://www.news-journalonline.com/news/local/east-volusia/2011/01/05/december-coldest-on-record.html
  2. Tallahassee marks coldest December on record: http://www.tallahassee.com/article/20110103/NEWS01/101030308/NWS-Tallahassee-marks-coldest-December-on-record
  3. N. Carolina: Asheville’s December was 2nd coldest: http://www.citizen-times.com/article/20110104/NEWS/301040038

Korea: Seoul Has Coldest December in 30 Years, Says Weather Bureau: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-27/seoul-has-coldest-december-in-30-years-says-weather-bureau.html

China:

Mass evacuations as China’s south battles ‘big freeze”: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12117729

Heavy snow grips northern China: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8228676/Heavy-snow-grips-northern-China.html

India:

Cold wave continues to grip North India: http://www.sify.com/news/cold-wave-continues-to-grip-north-india-news-national-lbfmEdjjaig.html

Bangalore is cold but the outskirts are getting colder: http://www.dnaindia.com/bangalore/report_bangalore-is-cold-but-the-outskirts-are-getting-colder_1483567

Chill in Calcutta: http://www.telegraphindia.com/1110105/jsp/calcutta/story_13392877.jsp

Australia:

NSW had its wettest year in half a century: http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/nsw-had-its-wettest-year-in-50-years-20110105-19fr7.html

AUSTRALIA has just experienced its wettest year since 1974 and its coolest year of the 21st century: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/last-year-australias-wettest-in-36-years-coldest-in-10/story-e6frg6nf-1225979674792

 

UK Met Office fears ridicule from public more than from their paymasters!

January 5, 2011

The UK Met Office is busy spinning the story that it actually did forecast the coldest December in the UK in a 100 years but secretly informed only the cabinet of the UK government about this in October 2010. Secret forecasts for fear of being wrong! After all kings of old also had their own private soothsayers to study the entrails but they were usually executed if they could not spin their way out of wrong forecasts. But the Met Office story does not stand up and their credibility is in tatters.

The UK Met office (as an institution) is one of the most ardent supporters of Global Warming dogma which is concerned with climate not weather. This can only be a “political” choice or an act of faith since climate trends are of little significance for their main task of weather forecasting. While weather is only a subset of climate I find it difficult to believe that poor weather forecasting can be a sound bottom-up basis for forecasting climate.

I say that climate trends are of little significance for detailed weather forecasting because climate change considers temperature changes of about one degree per century or less whereas the daily variation at any particular location is typically 10 to 15 degrees, seasonal variations at any location are around 40 – 50°C over a year and geographical variation around the globe is also upto 50 °C at any moment in time. Any climate trends of the order of 1°C per century are then immaterial for the immediate weather forecast.

At a cost of some £200 million per year they do forecast the weather with some accuracy for upto about 5 days ahead but are notoriously poor with their long range forecasts (but I note that even their short term forecasts are not more accurate – statistically – than the simple statement that “the weather tomorrow will be the same as today”). As recently as October 2010 the Met Office published weather maps showing warm expectations for November, December and January – but they insist they did not make any long range forecasts. We are told by Harrabin of the BBC that this was because of their sensitivity to the ridicule poured on them after their forecasts of a “barbecue summer” in 2009 and a mild 2009/2010 winter proved spectacularly wrong. But , we are assured by Harrabin, they actually did forecast – correctly – a cold and snowy winter but only informed the UK cabinet secretly.

Presumably any future ridicule or budget cuts by the cabinet of the UK Government for being wrong would be preferable to any public ridicule!!

In any event the cabinet did not do very much with this confidential information (perhaps it was anonymous) and all the counties were woefully unprepared.

Sources:

Manatees threatened by cold Florida waters – must be global warming

December 30, 2010

Manatees clearly are not too impressed by the effects of global warming and are swimming out of the chilly Gulf of Mexico waters and into warmer springs and power plant discharge canals. On Tuesday, more than 300 manatees floated into the outflow of Tampa Electric’s Big Bend Power Station reports Physorg.com:

Manatees paddle to warm water to escape Fla. chill (AP)

Manatees congregate in a canal where discharge from a nearby Florida Power & Light plant warms the water in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. Tuesday, Dec. 28, 2010.

“It’s like a warm bathtub for them,” said Wendy Anastasiou, an environmental specialist at the power station’s manatee viewing center. “They come in here and hang out and loll around.”

Cold weather can weaken manatees’ immune systems and eventually kill them. State officials said 2010 has been a deadly year for the beloved animals: between Jan. 1 and Dec. 17, 246 manatees died from so-called “cold stress.” During the same time period in 2009, only 55 manatees died from the cold. In 2008, only 22 manatees succumbed to chilly temperatures.

Manatee deaths documented from Jan. 1 through Dec. 5 are nearly double the five-year average for that time period, according to Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission statistics.

“Obviously we’re very concerned as an agency about the unusually high number of manatee deaths this year,” said Wendy Quigley, a spokeswoman with the state-run Fish and Wildlife Research Institute in St. Petersburg.

A total of 699 manatees were found dead between Jan. 1 and Dec. 5; state officials say it’s likely the cold temperatures also contributed to many of the 203 deaths in the “undetermined” category and the 68 deaths of manatees whose bodies could not be recovered.

Quigley noted that the statistics don’t even include this week’s cold snap, which sent temperatures plummeting into the 30s in parts of South Florida overnight and into the teens in the central part of the state.

Tampa Bay and Gulf water temperatures are hovering around 50 degrees, said Anastasiou. When the water dips below 68, manatees seek warmer waters – usually springs or the power plant discharge canals. The water temperature in the power plant’s Big Bend canal ranges from about 65-75 degrees, Anastasiou said. Even though they’re huge animals, manatees are very cold sensitive……… During last year’s cold snap, some 329 manatees congregated at the Tampa Electric power station. In Broward County on Tuesday, some 50 manatees gathered in the outfall of a Florida Power and Light plant.

Global warming arrogance takes “credit” for the white-out in Europe and the White Christmas in Australia

December 21, 2010

It used to be that the Global Warming zealots warned about the possible disappearance of snow and the mild and wet winters to come in Europe. But their arrogance knows no bounds. They have changed their tune and irrespective of what weather may prevail they mange to put it down to Global Warming. They now put the coldest December in a hundred years and the current white-out across Northern Europe down to Global Warming.

That snow outside is what global warming looks like

James Delingpole at The Telegraph is lauging his socks off.


Not to be outdone, the SMH thinks the possibility of having a White Christmas during the height of Australia’s summer is also due to Global Warming!!!!

The Alarmists cannot live with the thought that man made effects are puny and inconsequential compared to the effects of the sun.

Mild winters, warm winters, early winters, coldest winters in 100 years are all quoted in defence of global warming dogma.  They are all merely grist to the mill of Global Warming arrogance.

Science has been left behind in some far and distant galaxy.

 

Winter variations and global warming

December 16, 2010

After a week in Southern India with minimum nighttime temperatures of around 20°C and maximum daytime temperatures of about 28°C, I am now in Delhi where the minimum nighttime temperature is about 5°C and where the daytime maximum touches about 25°C. Without widespread central heating being available, Delhi feels cold and on the streets everybody is bundled up in woollens, jackets, scarves and blankets and the occasional Balaclava.

In the meantime, Scandinavia and the UK and Northern Europe are bracing themselves for another cold wave and much snow. Next week I shall be back in about minus 20°C.

Swedish winter

Humans thrive in daily variations – every day – which range from 10 to 20°C and seasonal variations of temperature – every year – of 40 °C and sometimes upto 50°C.

The global warming doomsday scenarios seem  puny and nonsensical in the face of human adaptability and ingenuity.

A good thing that Cancun didn’t do too much and deferred everything again but of course the jamboree can – and will – continue next year in S. Africa. But “global warming” is going out of fashion and I have the gut feeling that climate alarmism is beginning to be seen in perspective.

Since the 1970s, the long-term rate of global warming has been around 0.16C a decade but that slowed in the last 10 years to between 0.05C – 0.13C depending on which of the three major temperature record series are used.

Global warming has slowed down in the past decade


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