Archive for July, 2010

Silly Season continues……

July 23, 2010

The New Scientist today carries (at least ) two  Silly Season articles:

(image :noiri.blogspot.com)

1. In one, Clive Hamilton, a self-proclaimed “public intellectual” (whatever that is ) is concerned that evil is abroad and fanatics are planning to inject sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere to counter global warming. “An evil atmosphere is forming around geoengineering”

2. The second article by Stephen Battersby, a self-chartered environmental health practitioner (whatever that is) is worried that the oxygen content is decreasing to dangerously low levels. “Physical labour would become harder, for instance, and infant mortality would increase”. Fortunately he also finds that this will not matter too much because we would first encounter “the vastly greater peril of extreme climate change caused by burning all that carbon. With the ice caps rapidly melting, today’s coasts being inundated and the tropics turning into desert, the least of the world’s worries will be a few wheezing yaks”.

The silly season continues for at least another month.

Of marmosets and dragon flies…….

July 22, 2010

The silly season continues. Mankind is apparently seriously threatened by future plagues of dragon flies which could fly in on the wings of climate change. If the plague doesn’t get us then increasing warming could lead to a tough time from mammoth marmosets.

BBC News reports that climate change has returned a long lost dragon fly to Britain.

The dainty damselfly, a smaller relative of dragonflies, was washed away from its single East Anglian pond in the severe coastal floods of 1952/3. Now, a few individuals have been found at a site in north Kent. Conservationists believe the insects were blown on the wind from France or Belgium where they have become more common, probably due to climate change.

The Telegraph is concerned with weightier matters.

Scientists claim longer summers have led to marmots – which are ground-dwelling ‘squirrels’ – waking up earlier from hibernation, giving them more time to reproduce and gain weight before the next hibernation period. The results showed that since then, the average mass of adult marmots had increased by 11 per cent or 400 grams. The population had also grown by a quarter over a 33 year period. The lead researcher in the study, Dr Arpat Ozgul of Imperial College London, said the population increase could be down to a “short-term response” to longer summers. But he explained further study was needed to shed light on how animals will be affected by climate change in the future.

Paywalls are a real turnoff

July 21, 2010

Over the last few weeks I find I am just not visiting The Times site any more. Clearly I am not the only one as Business Week reports. After 42 years of reading The Times regularly, I find I don’t miss it much either, which I thought I might. In fact there is not a single reporter or columnist at The Times who can any longerbe classified as a “must read” . Their speed of reporting has been insufficient to lead to any scoops and their biases are not insignificant. Lately they have shown little editorial courage either. Perhaps their time has now gone.

Visits to the website of The Times newspaper have fallen to a third since Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. started asking users to pay for online access. Traffic in the week ended July 10 declined to 33 percent of that before the company demanded users register, according to data compiled by Experian Hitwise. The Times’ share of traffic to news and media websites from the U.K. fell to 1.43 percent from 4.46 percent, Experian said in an e-mailed statement.

In fact blogs even with their blatant partisanship are getting more of my visits than the Mainstream media sites. The known political slant of the blogs can be easily discounted but the MSM which claims impartiality is becoming less reliable because they are all actually quite biased but their bias is not visible.

Back again

July 19, 2010
  1. Watched the World Cup final at a bar in Bilbao. Spain were worthy winners but watch out for Germany in the next 2 Cups. Thank goodness it did not go to penalties. The Dutch approach was a little disturbing. The celebrations in Bilbao were not as exuberant as shown on TV in Madrid. Not too many Spanish flags to be seen.
  2. Paul (Pablo) the psychic octopus can retire with flying colours. He should be granted free Spanish mussels for life. A psychic elephant (named Bua) has been discovered in Sweden!
  3. Southern hemisphere suffering from a cold wave. Even after the record winter in the Northern Hemisphere, alarmists still persist in believing that 2010 will be the hottest year ever!!! But the “homogenisation” of data to show this is less than convincing.
  4. La Nina conditions are establishing themselves and cool temperature for the next few years are likely. However, also coming is major drop of .5 to .7C in the global temps which will take us below normal for a time. In addition, the reason for the drop will easily be linked with the cooling of the Pacific, which will remain in its cool stage for the next 30 years. Once the Atlantic, still warm, goes into its cool stage in 10-15 years, global temps will fall even further, back to where they were in the 1970s. Some of the warming alarmists of today were alarmist about a coming ice age in 1976.
  5. The sun is remarkably quiet and undershooting even the low predictions for Solar Cycle 24 for flux and sunspot numbers. Perhaps SC24 will even undershoot SC5. Landscheidt minimum probability is increasing.

Germany 3 Uruguay 2:

July 10, 2010

Paul (or Pablo) the octopus gets it right again. So far a 100% record for Paul in this World Cup.

A good performance by both teams and especially Germany without 3 key players. Germany are going to be a force to be reckoned with for the next 2 World Cups.

I have to travel to Spain on Sunday and should arrive in time for the final. I am looking forward to watching the match in a suitable bar.

Volcano Katla on Iceland getting ready to erupt?

July 10, 2010

For the last 1000 years eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull on Iceland have always triggered subsequent Katla eruptions. After the ash clouds in the spring caused by the eruptions under Eyjafjallajökul glacier, the region under Katla is rumbling.

There have been 14 earthquakes under the Mýrdalsjökull glacier in the last 48 hours. reported by the Iceland Meteorological Office.

Katla Volcano usually erupts every century, says Iceland’s President Olafur Grimsson. and the last eruption was in 1918. “The time for Katla to erupt is coming close.”

“I don’t say if, but I say when Katla will erupt,” Grimsson says. “We have been waiting for that eruption for several years.”

“It can create, for a long period, extraordinary damage to modern advanced society.”

Map of earthquake epicentres

Significant ash clouds from a Katla eruption could compound the global cooling which has already started. Perhaps we shall soon have another year without a summer!!

Global Warming: “The science is terrible but—perhaps the psychology is good.”

July 10, 2010

Anthony Watts has a post revisiting the late Michael Crichton‘s 2003 lecture at Caltech which I had not seen before.

A lucid and eloquent exposition which I reproduce below. Reading it now in 2010 it is still fresh, applicable and apposite. It should be required reading for any young scientist of the dangers of religion or politics masquerading as science.

“Aliens Cause Global Warming”

A lecture by Michael Crichton
Caltech Michelin Lecture
January 17, 2003

My topic today sounds humorous but unfortunately I am serious. I am going to argue that extraterrestrials lie behind global warming. Or to speak more precisely, I will argue that a belief in extraterrestrials has paved the way, in a progression of steps, to a belief in global warming.

Charting this progression of belief will be my task today.

Let me say at once that I have no desire to discourage anyone from believing in either extraterrestrials or global warming. That would be quite impossible to do. Rather, I want to discuss the history of several widely-publicized beliefs and to point to what I consider an emerging crisis in the whole enterprise of science-namely the increasingly uneasy relationship between hard science and public policy.

I have a special interest in this because of my own upbringing. I was born in the midst of World War II, and passed my formative years at the height of the Cold War. In school drills, I dutifully crawled under my desk in preparation for a nuclear attack.

It was a time of widespread fear and uncertainty, but even as a child I believed that science represented the best and greatest hope for mankind. Even to a child, the contrast was clear between the world of politics-a world of hate and danger, of irrational beliefs and fears, of mass manipulation and disgraceful blots on human history. In contrast, science held different values-international in scope, forging friendships and working relationships across national boundaries and political systems, encouraging a dispassionate habit of thought, and ultimately leading to fresh knowledge and technology that would benefit all mankind. The world might not be avery good place, but science would make it better. And it did. In my lifetime, science has largely fulfilled its promise. Science has been the great intellectual adventure of our age, and a great hope for our troubled and restless world.

But I did not expect science merely to extend lifespan, feed the hungry, cure disease, and shrink the world with jets and cell phones. I also expected science to banish the evils of human thought—prejudice and superstition, irrational beliefs and false fears. I expected science to be, in Carl Sagan’s memorable phrase, “a candle in a demon haunted world.” And here, I am not so pleased with the impact of science. Rather than serving as a cleansing force, science has in some instances been seduced by the more ancient lures of politics and publicity. Some of the demons that haunt our world in recent years are invented by scientists. The world has not benefited from permitting these demons to escape free.

But let’s look at how it came to pass.

(more…)

Spanish citizenship for Pablo the Psychic Octopus?

July 10, 2010

Though Paul, who was born in the UK predicts that Germany will win tonight’s third place match, he has also predicted a win for Spain in tomorrows final.

In Germany there are now various suggestions of how Paul should be sliced, squashed, marinaded, fried, broiled, grilled or baked.

All of Paul’s predictions have been true in this World Cup. In Spain there are moves  to rechristen him Pablo and provide him with Spanish citizenship. Spain’s defensive midfielder Sergio Busquets said Friday that the Spaniards are in love with the octopus and and out of gratitude they want to re-christen it Pablo.

“We guess it is a Spanish octopus. We are in love with it and want to name it Pablo,” said Busquets.

Paul’s predictions require the choice of mussels but whether he will take to paella is not known. Paul’s religious and political affiliations are also not known.

But I think Paul is quite safe. His keeper’s at Sea Life Oberhausen are seeing a marked increase in the number of visitors to the aquarium and it it can be expected that Paul’s psychic abilities will be tested in new fields when the World Cup is over.

Silly Season

July 9, 2010

It’s summer even here in Sweden and the silly stories are coming thick and fast:

  1. Speculation and fantasy become real when coated with science. Carbon emissions threaten fish populations
  2. Inquiries set up by an establishment do tend to support the establishment that feeds them. The Pearce Inquiry into the Climategate scandal found evidence that emails had been deleted to avoid revealing them but concluded that the science was sound!
  3. There is a movement to convert Paul the Octopus to calamari since all his predictions are correct and he could remove all the suspense before Sunday’s World Cup final. Perhaps his keepers should shift Paul’s predictions to something less dangerous – Global warming or the stock market come to mind.
  4. The Met Office has signed a new 5 year deal with the BBC although they might still have to correct their forecasts for a hot summer to account for floods. It is however understood to involve a “significant” reduction in cost, according to BBC sources.
  5. Rajendra Pachauri, head of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has defended his science body’s work, saying any errors in its reports were minor.
  6. Increase of Antarctic sea ice taken to be proof of the effect of greenhouse gases.

No comment needed.

The Octopus Strikes again

July 8, 2010

I returned just in time to watch the match. My forecast (hope) about Germany was wrong and Spain is in the World Cup final for the first time ever.

Good Luck to them but I pick Holland for the final –  3rd time lucky perhaps?

Ramos was a disgrace. A great pity that he does not just rely on his indisputable skill and feels it necessary to play dirty.

Germany had their chances but Spain just edged it. The burden of beating the prediction by Paul the Octopus was just too much for Schweinsteiger and his manschaft. Özil was impressive again- but he needs a little more stamina to last the entire 90 minutes.

Paul the octopus