Archive for July, 2010

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NonScience — not even Pseudo-Science

July 31, 2010

No doubt it is the quest for funding for what are “fashionable” projects which leads to this kind of rubbish. This is not even worthy of being called pseudo science – this is just nonscience (pun intended).

We find that an increase in a state’s unemployment rate decreases Google searches for “global warming” and increases searches for “unemployment,” and that the effect differs according to a state’s political ideology.

This is is what passes for science for University of California economists Matthew Kahn and Matthew Kotchen in their peer-reviewed paper (abstract here) “Environmental Concern and the Business Cycle: The Chilling Effect of Recession”.

Apparently this is funded by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Clearly they have surplus funds to disseminate, or was it the trigger words “Environmental Concern” which loosened the purse strings.

image

Does it really take two University economists to come to the conclusion that

Finally, in California, we find that an increase in a county’s unemployment rate is associated with a significant decrease in county residents choosing the environment as the most important policy issue.

One wonders who the peers who reviewed this article and recommended publication could be — and are they getting any funding from the NBER?

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Posted in Environment, Non-Science, Science | 1 Comment »

The Trabi: An endangered species — only 35000 left

July 31, 2010

After living in Görlitz for 3 years I got used to seeing the occasional Trabi struggling manfully on the A4 autobahn.

But it was the stretch Trabis that caught the eye. Streamlined ugliness!

image:http://www.dreamlimo.de/index.php?fileid=limousinen&fnr=285

But Der Spiegel reports that the species is under threat of extinction and there are only 35000 of these plastic cars left in Germany.

The beloved Trabant, a trademark of communist East Germany, is dying out fast. The number rattling around on German roads has dwindled to 35,000 from close to one million shortly after reunification. Last year’s cash-for-clunkers program appears to have persuaded many owners to ditch their brand loyalty.

After the fall of the Berlin Wall two decades ago, East Germans had had enough. Even as Trabants were hard to come by in communist times, once Germany reunified, everyone wanted a Western car.

Not long later, thought, the little plastic car with its fume-belching two-stroke engine became the premier cult item for hard-core auto enthusiasts — and for those who had succumbed to Ostalgie, dubious nostalgia for life in communist East Germany when “Trabis” provided a limited source of freedom and people had to wait 10 years for delivery. ……..The vehicles are made of Duroplast — a mixture of resin powder and cotton — and are literally falling apart. In addition, however, many owners ditched their brand loyalty last year when the German government offered a €2,500 vehicle scrapping bonus to persuade people to buy new cars to boost the flagging economy.

  • A Trabi on a mountain top — A miracle!
  • How do you double the value of a Trabi — Fill her up
  • “I’d like 2 windshield wipers for my Trabi” — “Sounds like a good swap”
  • What do you call an accident involving 4 Trabis — A Tupperware party
  • Why is the luxury Trabi rear window heated – To keep your hands warm when pushing it
  • Is there a device to measure a Trabi’s acceleration — A calendar

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Global Warming: The wagons are circling

July 29, 2010

Met Office report: global warming evidence is ‘unmistakable’

A new climate change report from the Met Office and its US equivalent has provided the “greatest evidence we have ever had” that the world is warming.

Report cover

They protest too much.

Since it is the Met Office “this is powerful evidence – perhaps definitive – that the hysteria is overdone”.

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Ahmadinejad does not like Paul !

July 29, 2010

I had expected that Paul, after his World Cup exploits would enjoy a peaceful retirement. Poor chap.

Unfortunately he has been taken to represent all that is reprehensible in modern culture by no less an authority than Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.  Poor chap!

The Daily Telegraph reports that Ahmadinejad claims that the octopus is a symbol of decadence and decay among “his enemies”

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad attacks Octopus Paul

Considering that octopuses only have a 4 year life span let us hope he does not have to face any fatwas or assassination attempts. He deserves a peaceful retirement with a surfeit of mussels – preferably 5 times a day.

A Russian bookmaker is offering the Sea Life Center in Oberhausen, Germany 100,000 euros ($129,800) for the octopus. Given that the Sea Life Center recently turned down offers from Spain to buy Paul, it’s unlikely he’ll be moving anytime soon.

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The Keepers of Memory

July 28, 2010

Yesterday I met someone after 35 years.

The memories that were triggered were sharp and clear but we each remembered different episodes with differing degrees of clarity. Many memories that surged to the surface were matters that I had not consciously thought of during the 35 year interval.

Why then are some memories stored in the brain with – apparently – no deterioration and a mass or surrounding detail and others are only vague recollections or even non-existent?

Perhaps the answer lies in the protein kinase PKMzeta. In The Beautiful Brain Podcast, Todd Sacktor, Professor of Physiology and Pharmacology at SUNY talks about his research regarding the mechanisms of long-term memory storage—and deletion— in the brain.

image: http://www.cerebromente.org.br/n14/mente/chaos.html

Sacktor’s research investigates the activity of a class of proteins which are very active around synapses— the protein kinases –  and they come in several varieties in the brain. They catalyze chemical reactions at the synapse, allowing a neuron to become more or less responsive to the electrical firing of its neighbor by aiding reactions that reshuffle neurotransmitter receptors.

Sacktor has identified one kinase in particular—called PKMzeta—which seems to be directly responsible for the maintenance of memory in the brain. When PKMzeta is found at a synapse, the memory encoded there is OK—it’s being maintained. When PKMzeta stops working at a synapse, the memory floats into the abyss of the brain, disassembled into its consituent cellular parts and extinguished from our recollection. In this edition of the podcast, Sacktor discusses his research and its implications on the way we understand memory storage in the brain.

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The 35$ tablet and cloud computing

July 28, 2010

Whether or not the 35$ tablet recently unveiled in India ever becomes real is irrelevant.

Kapil Sibal

It looks like an iPad, only it’s 1/14th the cost: India has unveiled the prototype of a $35 basic touchscreen tablet aimed at students, which it hopes to bring into production by 2011.

But the 20$ pc in India – the “Shaksat” has not really happened.

But the Tata Nano – as the 2000$ car – did happen even if the cost is slightly over the magic target of one lakh rupees (100,000).

The 749 rupees ($16) water purifier is a reality and $2,000 open-heart surgery has been available for some time.

What is really important is the challenging of barriers and the attitude it represents. The future of distributed computing, perhaps through a much more extensive use of the cloud, could well depend on this challenging of attitudes. Ultimately the device used by every individual would be nothing more than  a very secure interface device:

  • secure and simple regarding the individual’s identity
  • secure regarding the connection to the cloud, and
  • secure regarding the personal or sensitive material stored in the cloud.

As Tony Bradley of PC World puts it

The $35 tablet prototype from India will run a variation of the open source Linux operating system. It has 2Gb of RAM, but no internal storage–relying on a removable memory card. The device has a USB port, and built-in Wi-Fi connectivity. Seems like reasonable enough specs–especially for $35.

On the software side, the $35 tablet has a PDF reader, multimedia player, video conferencing, Web browser, and word processor. The value of the multimedia player will be contingent on its compatibility with popular audio and video file formats. The functionality of the word processor will hinge on its ability to create, view, or edit files in Microsoft Word format.

….. Many will scoff at the idea of a $35 tablet PC. Of course, many tech geeks, pundits, and power users also scoffed at the concept of a netbook, claiming it was too weak to be of any value. A year later, netbooks were cannibalizing notebook sales as students embraced the cheaper platform, and business professionals opted for smaller, lighter mobile computers.

Ultimately, it doesn’t even really matter if the “$35 PC” ever materializes. The Indian prototype illustrates what’s possible and breaks down barriers–challenging the rest of the industry to push the envelope. A Linux-based (think Android or Chrome OS), Web-connected tablet would likely still be a tremendous success in the United States at three times that $35 target.

Of course netbooks are already losing out to ipads and small tablets.

Scoffers are already out in force but even they serve a purpose in creating the challenge necessary. It is always more satisfying to do something when there are those who scoff and say it cannot be done.

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Posted in Business, India, Technology | 2 Comments »

We are already in the Landscheidt minimum !!

July 27, 2010

A Massive Winter Heading for the Northern Hemisphere?

Geoff Sharp’s recent article suggests that the Landscheidt minimum is already upon us.

The winters of the past two years have been noticeably colder. The northern hemisphere in particular has experienced record cold, record snow and a rebuilding of the Arctic sea ice extent. The southern hemisphere this winter has also seen record low temperatures in South America which is resulting in many hundreds of deaths (human and livestock). There are a number of players involved which can be attributed to this cooling trend and when they come together they are capable of dropping the world’s temperatures by a significant amount.

Perhaps the most important player is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which is a hot and cold ocean temperature cycle in the Pacific of about 30 years. The world’s temperature trend very closely matches this cycle which has the potential to override solar activity of the day. The last major PDO cooling event was between 1946 and 1976 which experienced the highest solar cycle on record (SC19) followed by a low cycle (SC20). The deepest cold of this era was recorded when both the PDO and low solar activity teamed up, which is right where we are again today with perhaps a greater influence from the solar side with my predicted imminent grand minimum.

Aside from other ocean oscillations the ENSO pattern has a large short term effect on our climate/weather system. We are just coming out of a rather warm El Nino cycle and current observations are showing the possible impact of a very strong La Nina cooling pattern taking shape.

The La Nina phase is now official with the Australian BOM records showing all the major indicators heading into continued La Nina conditions. Of particular interest is the sub surface temperatures in the Pacific showing a large area 4 deg under normal.

Another oscillation called the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO)  is showing its highest readings since records began in 1979, during the strong 1999 and 2008 La Ninas the AAO was also high.

The cooling phase of the PDO is just beginning and should reduce the strength and frequency of future El Ninos and add extra punch and frequency to upcoming La Ninas.

So the stage is set for one of the most interesting natural experiments, nearly all the cool players are in place with the exception of the Atlantic Oscillation still not in its cool phase. I predict the extra boost from my predicted solar grand minimum along with the  current oceanic conditions the next northern winter will experience conditions similar to the Little Ice Age (1250-1850).

Adolfo Giurfa points to this map showing the cooling oceans.

The winter of 2010 / 2011 could remove many uncertainties and provide a fatal blow to global warming alarmism – though doom-day scenarios will never ever die.

Current Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Plot

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The big global ice melt is not happening

July 26, 2010

Global ice quantities are not decreasing. There is no polar meltdown at either pole.

It would seem that temperatures in the Arctic are running lower than average and the ice extent in the Antarctic continues to be higher than normal.

Perhaps the predictions of global cooling for the next 20 – 30 years are getting more probable. Moreover the sun continues to be far less active than predicted.

I cannot help feeling that global climate can only be consequent to the sun and that the primary vehicle for heat transport is the oceans. Within the atmosphere – where the heat content is puny compared to the oceans – the primary constituent of any significance is water in all its forms and the effect they have on solar radiation and the earth’s re-radiation.

The effects of man or CO2 and woefully inadequate climate models remain in the realms of the fly on the chariot wheel saying “Wow! Look at the all the dust I am raising”.

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25 years on and toxicity is still being exported….

July 23, 2010

25 years after Bhopal where the manufacture of toxic products was “exported” to India the same “export” philosophy – this time with toxic wastes to the Ivory Coast – continues.

I thought I could see signs of ethics returning to the corporate world but I was being too optimistic. “Business as usual and pay a few fines if you get caught” seems to apply. Nobody goes to jail after all.

Trafigura found guilty of exporting toxic waste

A Dutch court has found multinational Trafigura guilty of illegally exporting toxic waste from Amsterdam and concealing the nature of the cargo.

Two civil protection workers pass by a bulldozer clearing a site polluted with toxic waste at the Akouedo district in Abidjan - 19 September 2006

In 2006, Trafigura transported waste alleged to have been involved in the injury of thousands of people in Ivory Coast. The firm was fined 1m euros (£836,894) for its ship, the Probo Koala, transiting Amsterdam with its cargo.Trafigura, an oil trading company, initially tried to clean up low-grade oil by tipping caustic soda into the hold of the Probo Koala. The company tried to unload the waste in Amsterdam for treatment, declaring it as “harmless slops”.

Timeline

Sept 2006 – Thousands in Ivory Coast report falling ill from waste in Abidjan

Oct 2006 – About 1,000 Ivorians sue Trafigura

Feb 2007 – Trafigura reaches $160m out-of-court settlement with government of Ivory Coast

Oct 2008 – Ivory Coast court finds two people, not employees of Trafigura, guilty of dumping toxic waste in Abidjan

Sept 2009 – Trafigura agrees to pay $50m to people in Ivory Coast who say they were poisoned by the waste

June 2010 – Dutch prosecutors accuse Trafigura of illegally exporting hazardous waste to Ivory Coast

Trafigura denies responsibility for the dumping of the waste and any deaths or injuries caused !!

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Egyptian impact crater first spotted on Google Earth

July 23, 2010

The Kamil Crater in Egypt

(Gebel Kamil 22°01’06″N  26°05’16″E)

Analyses suggest this 45-meter-wide crater in southwestern Egypt, first spotted on Google Earth late in 2008, probably was formed in the last 5,000 years.

Image; National Museum of the Antarctic, University of Siena

download

The Crater on Google earth. http://www.ogleearth.com/2010/07/newly_discovere.html?

Although the crater was first noticed in autumn 2008, researchers have since spotted the blemish on satellite images taken as far back as 1972, says Luigi Folco, a cosmochemist at the University of Siena in Italy. He and his colleagues report their find online July 22 in Science.

During expeditions to the site early in 2009 and again this year, scientists found more than 5,000 iron meteorites that together weigh more than 1.7 tons. The team estimates that the original lump of iron weighed between 5 and 10 metric tons when it slammed into the ground at a speed of around 3.5 kilometers per second, with most of the material vaporizing during the collision. Analyses of soil samples from the site and of sand fused into glass by the impact’s intense heat and pressure may help the team estimate when the event occurred. Preliminary analyses suggest that it happened sometime during the last 10,000 years, probably no more than 5,000 years ago, Folco says.

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