Bill Gates punctures the renewables fantasy balloon

June 29, 2015

I know that renewables provide a useful but limited resource for our energy needs. I know that they are economic only in some specialised niches in the energy sector. I dislike the distortion in the market caused by subsidies generally and power generation subsidies in particular. I “know” because I have worked within the energy sector including the renewables sector for some 40 years. I have made the calculations myself and I don’t rely on advocacy reports or alarmist scenarios. I have made the calculations of the various benefits accruing to the developers, the equipment manufacturers, the power plant owner/operators and the consumers. Grant subsidies allow the developers to make money at the cost of the consumer. Feed-in tariffs and tax breaks allow the owner/operator to make money at the cost of the consumer. Subsidies attract the “cowboy” developers and manufacturers who take their money and arrange a suitable bankruptcy at the appropriate time. If subsidies are reduced or removed, it is all too easy for the owner/operator to walk away without losses and without liability. It is consumers and the duped small investors who pay the cost.

I pay little attention to publicity hungry “personalities” who jump on the nearest fashionable, image enhancing band-wagon. I am highly suspicious of the rich and famous supporting “causes”, without any exercise of mind and primarily for the sake of publicity and image. I admire but don’t much care for Microsoft’s autocratic ways (and  I do use Windows) and see Bill Gates as extraordinary in his field but not as any kind of expert on energy matters. But he is a “personality” with a very valid claim to fame – in his area. So it is gratifying to read this report, even if it has no real impact on my views, at least as one example of a rich and famous “personality” who bothered to think.

The A-Register:

Retired software kingpin and richest man in the world Bill Gates has given his opinion that today’s renewable-energy technologies aren’t a viable solution for reducing CO2 levels, and governments should divert their green subsidies into R&D aimed at better answers.

Gates expressed his views in an interview given to the Financial Times yesterday, saying that the cost of using current renewables such as solar panels and windfarms to produce all or most power would be “beyond astronomical”. At present very little power comes from renewables: in the UK just 5.2 per cent, the majority of which is dubiously-green biofuel burning1 rather than renewable ‘leccy – and even so, energy bills have surged and will surge further as a result.

In Bill Gates’ view, the answer is for governments to divert the massive sums of money which are currently funnelled to renewables owners to R&D instead. This would offer a chance of developing low-carbon technologies which actually can keep the lights on in the real world.

“The only way you can get to the very positive scenario is by great innovation,” he told the pink ‘un. “Innovation really does bend the curve.”

Gates says he’ll personally put his money where his mouth is. He’s apparently invested $1bn of his own cash in low-carbon energy R&D already, and “over the next five years, there’s a good chance that will double,” he said.

The ex-software overlord stated that the Guardian‘s scheme of everyone refusing to invest in oil and gas companies would have “little impact”. He also poured scorn on another notion oft-touted as a way of making renewable energy more feasible, that of using batteries to store intermittent supplies from solar or wind. 

“There’s no battery technology that’s even close to allowing us to take all of our energy from renewables,” he said, pointing out – as we’ve noted on these pages before – that it’s necessary “to deal not only with the 24-hour cycle but also with long periods of time where it’s cloudy and you don’t have sun or you don’t have wind.” ……

I would go further of course. A low-carbon economy itself is nothing to aspire to unless it makes commercial sense. It does not now and will not for many years to come. It achieves nothing for climate but does increase costs, everywhere and particularly in the developing world where fossil fuels are needed most. In Europe, the obsession with renewables has delayed the financial recovery and has cost almost 20 million jobs.

Though Bill Gates does not qualify as an energy expert, he certainly does qualify as an influential investor. He even qualifies as an informed investor in the energy sector. So some little common sense from one of the very rich and famous to balance the irrational, do-gooding and sanctimonious mouthings of others is always welcome.

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Monsoon recovers from slow start – rainfall running 20% higher than “normal”

June 29, 2015

The SW Monsoon has, after a late, slow start, spread across all of India and is just crossing the NW frontier into Pakistan. This normally only happens around the 15th of July. Just 5 weeks ago the IMD’s updated long range forecast (Forecast 2) warned that the monsoon would be later than predicted and that total rainfall could be deficient.

  1. Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2015 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is likely to be deficient (<90% of LPA).
  2. Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 88% of the long period average with a model error of ±4%.
  3. Region wise, the season rainfall is likely to be 85% of LPA over North-West India, 90% of LPA over Central India, 92% of LPA over South Peninsula and 90% of LPA over North-East India all with a model error of ± 8 %.
  4. The monthly rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 92% of its LPA during July and 90% of LPA during August both with a model error of ± 9 %.

Moreover the risk of this being a La Nina year could further depress rainfall, we were warned by IMD. The fear of drought led to government updating emergency plans and for state governments to prepare emergency budgets. A private forecaster, Skymet,  however suggested that Indian farmers need not worry too much.

Economic Times:  Skymet is a young weather forecasting agency that has, with gradually amplifying audacity, been challenging the monopoly of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the hoary state-led colonial-era institution, on matters related to climate and weather in India. ….. The IMD has usually been the final word on droughts but this time Skymet has asserted that the IMD is grievously mistaken. The IMD expects India to get ‘below normal’ rains during the coming monsoon months between June and September whereas Skymet says farmers and citizens needn’t be worried: India is going to have ‘normal’ rains.

(The IMD scientists – based on my small experience with them – are very sober and very rigorous, doing good science. But the organisation’s presentation skills are conspicuous by their absence and their public relations skills are sadly lacking. The IMD website is particularly poor. They have little clue as to how to present their forecasts for the media or the general public.)

In the event, the monsoon has surged over the last 10 days and the all-India-spread has been reached almost 2 weeks earlier than “normal”. Last year this was achieved on 17th July.

Monsoon spread till 28 June 2015 - Skymet graphic from IMD data

Monsoon spread till 28 June 2015 – Skymet graphic from IMD data

It is still early days and the monsoon is only one month into its 4 month season, but currently the rainfall (weighted average) is running some 23% above “normal”. So far it would seem that Skymet’s optimism may be closer to the mark than IMD’s dour pessimism. A weak La Nina year is still possible but 2015 will not go down as a peak La Nina year.

Rainfall during June 2015

Rainfall during June 2015

In the wettest East/North East region, rainfall is close to normal. In all other regions rainfall has been “in excess”. So far the cumulative rainfall would be classified as being “plentiful”.

 

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Elephant Party

June 28, 2015

Found on Facebook from Tintu-Mon

Elephant Party

 

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A Grexit is the best option as the government hides behind a new referendum

June 28, 2015

It seems to me that modern democracies – and especially those with coalitions produced by proportional representation – produce “followers” rather than leaders. And when “followers” pretend to lead they end up taking the easy, CYA, path through referenda. The Scottish referendum and the upcoming UK referendum on EU membership are illustrations of where supposed “leaders” pass the buck onto a diffuse and unaccountable electorate. The “wrong” choice can always be justified as being “the will of the majority”. All across Europe, countries have “followers” in leadership positions, who inevitably fail to lead. I take vision and the ability to carry people towards that vision as being the hallmarks of leadership. Rather than vision, it is the next election which governs. “Leaders” merely follow the current whims of the crowd and don’t even make the attempt to “carry” the crowd an any difficult path.

But I think the current Greek government’s call for a referendum to vote on the lenders’ conditions for further loans to Greece, while carrying out negotiations with those lenders is an abject abdication of leadership. Suppose, as is most likely, the conditions are rejected. The government may well return to the negotiating table in the hope that this may have strengthened its hand. Though exactly how is difficult to see. It is really only an attempt to mobilise a “sympathy” factor. It is equivalent to sitting in front of the bank manager, without any collateral and without any plans to stop spending on unnecessary things while pointing at a crying child and begging for a sympathy loan.

If the government recommends a rejection and this is confirmed by the referendum,  it would be the start of a Grexit. The government may carry forward a “begging” from the lenders but it will only be postponing the inevitable. If the people accept the lenders’ terms, the government ought to resign but will not since they can always point to the referendum for their abandonment of their “principles”. But it will also make it impossible for anyone to negotiate with the Greek government, since no “decision” by them will carry any credibility without being backed up by a referendum.

I expect we will see a run on the banks on Monday – if the banks are open. I also expect that the government will scrape up the relatively modest €1.6 billion needed for the repayment due on Tuesday. Then the result of the referendum  on Sunday the 5th will be the card in the hole to continue negotiations.

But I hope a default takes place and that the Greeks reject the lenders’ conditions and a Grexit does occur. Then a debt restructuring can take place. Writing off debt without first going bankrupt is not healthy. In the long run it will be better for Greece to return to the drachma. It will also be better for both the EU and the Eurozone. Both need to shrink. In corporate terms I would say that EU Inc. has expanded too far, much too fast. Some divestment is desperately needed. It would be better for the EU to focus on the common market and free labour movement provisions and to allow political union to happen whenever, and only when, it is ripe – or maybe not to happen at all. Trying to force the political union is counter-productive. The European parliament can be dismantled completely without losing anything. The Brussels bureaucracy could, and should, be drastically trimmed to be an accounting agency and nothing else. The common currency is of little value with the disparity in economic disciplines across the Eurozone. Dealing with multiple currencies but where each currency is representative of its underlying economy is not as difficult as having the fundamental mis-match we now have between the “average” value of the Euro and the strength of each of the underlying economies.

Greece needs to get out of the Euro strait-jacket it is in while remaining within the European trade zone.

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“Let there be cesium” and there was a leap second

June 28, 2015

On 30th June 2015 at 23:59:60, a leap second will be added before 1st July 2015, 00:00:00 because the difference between Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) and Universal Time (UT1) would have reached 0.9 seconds. Universal Time also known as Astronomical Time is based on the Earth’s rotation around its own axis, which determines the length of a day. Since 1972, 25 leap seconds have been inserted to synchronise these two clocks and this leap second will be the 26th. The differences are so irregular that the need for a leap second cannot be predicted more than about 6 months in advance.

The leap second is for synchronising the two clocks and not – directly – for compensating for the slowing down of the earth and the lengthening of the day. That adds about 1 second every 58,800 years (1.7ms per century). Since modern humans arrived on the scene some 200,000+ years ago the length of the day has increased by about 4 seconds.

International Atomic Time (TAI) is the “standard” used to synchronise the other two clocks and is built up by combining the output of some 200 highly precise atomic clocks worldwide and where the second is defined by the resonant oscillation frequency of cesium 133.

Atomic clocks use the second as the base unit and hours, days and years are taken to be multiples.

“The second is the duration of 9 192 631 770 periods of the radiation corresponding to the transition between the two hyperfine levels of the ground state of the cesium 133 atom.”

The wise men of our age believe (they cannot know) that this resonant frequency of the cesium 133 atom will remain “stable” for millions of years and is far more stable than the period of rotation of the irregular orbit of the earth around the sun or the even more irregular (and slowing) rotation period of the earth on its own axis.

All we measure, or try to measure, are periods of time – provided of course that time exists. Cesium would not have come into existence until about 3 minutes after the Big Bang, but time, presumably, began with the Big Bang. Initially there was only hydrogen and then came Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN), which after about 10 seconds (cesium 133 seconds, though cesium still didn’t exist) started producing helium. The heavy elements came about 3 minutes after the BB and after about 20 minutes BBN ceased. Light would have been created as soon as the fusion of hydrogen started with the BB itself.

Rephrasing Genesis

The Big Bang was the Beginning and then came Fusion. The expanse was without form and void, and dark energy was over the face of the deep. And the Spirit of Gravity hovered over the face of the aether. And Gravity said, “Let there be Coalescence” and the stars of the heavens came to be. “Let there coalesce a Sun” said Gravity, and so there was light. “Let coalescence proceed” and under Gravity came the earth bathed in the light of the Sun. And the light was good. 

And the rest is history.

 

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Twerking is pretty old-fashioned and Bostonians could be “massholes”

June 25, 2015

The Oxford English Dictionary has added 500 new words

Press Release: Today the Oxford English Dictionary (OED) announces its latest update, ushering in nearly 500 new words and over 900 newly revised and updated words. There are also over 2400 new senses of existing words added. This confirms the OED’s place as one of the largest and longest-running language research projects in the world. 

The new words include masshole, hot mess, twerk, fo’shizzle, sext, stanky, twitterati, meh.

I particularly like

masshole: A term of contempt for a native or inhabitant of the state of Massachusetts

Miley Cyrus may have thought she was being original and innovative with her “twerks” but it turns out that she was being pretty old-fashioned with a move which dates back to 1820 and came into dance in the 1990s.

The use of twerk to describe a type of dancing which emphasizes the performer’s posterior has its roots in the early 1990s in the New Orleans ‘bounce’ music scene, but the word itself seems to originate from more than 170 years before that.

It was in use in English as a noun by 1820 (originally spelled ‘twirk’) referring to ‘a twisting or jerking movement; a twitch’. Its use as a verb emerged a couple of decades later, in 1848, and the ‘twerk’ spelling had come about by 1901. The precise origin of the word is uncertain, but it may be a blend of twist or twitch and jerk, with influence from the noun quirk and from work (v.) in reference to the dance.

Keepers of language such as the OED always do – and must – lag usage. But it is wrong to think of the OED as any kind of arbiter of what is “right” or “wrong”. Usage always overrides any judgement of “correctness”. The keepers of language only record what was considered acceptable usage at a certain point in time. In fact I am inclined to the view that there is no such thing as bad spelling or bad grammar. There is only bad or good usage. The only real criterion is whether the meaning intended to be conveyed was conveyed.

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Viking Voyages

June 25, 2015

From thinglink

Click image for a larger map.

Viking voyages – 700 – 1050 CE

Nordic Science:

“Viking Age people knew about sails, at least since the birth of Christ, because they had contact with the Romans who had sails on their ships. But it is not until around the seventh and eighth century that we see the sail introduced in Scandinavia,” says Dr Morten Ravn, an archaeologist and curator from the Viking Ship Museum in Roskilde, Denmark.

“We don’t know why they didn’t have sails earlier, perhaps they just chose not to use it” says Ravn, who believes that the Norsemen must have known about the use of sails in the seventh century.

With the sail began a historical period when the Norse reached all the way down to the Caspian Sea, Gibraltar, Iceland, Greenland, and America.

….. 

“We do not know what was happening in between the time of the Nydam society’s boats and ships of the third and fourth century AD which were exclusively propelled by oars, and the seventh century where we begin to find pictorial depictions of ships. We cannot rule out that at some point we will find a ship from the year AD 500, but right now it is one of archaeology’s great questions,” he says.

The Nydam boat is 23 meters long and 3.5 meters wide. It is clinker built, a technique where the edges of hull planks overlap and planks are joined end to end into a strake. This was developed in northern Europe and successfully used by the Norsemen, and it represents a step in evolution in shipbuilding between the sewn plank boats and the new Viking ships.

During the Viking Age, they developed different types of ships for different purposes — either for crew, food, or merchandise.

Some ships were built for navigating along coasts and rivers, whereas the ships that went to England, Iceland, Greenland, and America were likely to have been large oceangoing vessels that could carry up to 80 people or a large amount of cargo. ……

Written sources indicate that Vikings travelled, traded, and raided, throughout most of Europe.

The annals from the Franciscan monastery of St. Bertin in 841 AD describe how the Danish Vikings sailed down from the North Sea and entered the English Channel to attack Rouen, a town in Normandy, Northern France. The scribes tell how the Vikings raged and plundered, used swords and fire, destroyed the town, killed and enslaved monks and other townspeople, ravaged all monasteries and settlements along the Seine or left them terrified after taking their money as bribes.

The Icelandic sagas written in the Middle Ages are another example, and perhaps the most famous written accounts of the Viking travels. One tells the story of the Norwegian King Harald Hardrada and his travels to Miklagård (modern day Istanbul). He entered into service as the Emperor’s bodyguard and returned home to Norway a wealthy man.

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Post-intellectual West Bengal

June 23, 2015

The new post-intellectual intelligentsia ruling West Bengal are demonstrating the heights to which they aspire:

NDTV: West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee’s nephew Abhishek has publicly threatened to “gouge out the eyes and chop off the hands” of anyone who dares to hurt Bengal’s interests. … “Those who dare to glare at us, we can gouge their eyes out and throw them on the road. Show us your hands and we can cut them off,” Abhishek said, adding, “But remember, it is the common man who will have the last word.” …

… Last year, Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress had to face many embarrassing questions after a prominent parliamentarian, actor Tapas Pal, said at a public meeting: “If the CPM people touch a hair on the head of my workers, I will set my boys upon their women to rape them.”

The West Bengal of today is not the intellectual or cultural powerhouse it once was. I finished my schooling in Calcutta long before it had been ravaged to be called Kolkata. I have been a regular visitor since then and was last there in 2014 for the 50th anniversary of graduating from school.

I grew up knowing – and living – with the intellectual legacy of Swami Vivekananda (Narendra Nath Datta), Rabindranath Tagore and Jagadish Chandra Bose. Satyajit Ray and Ravi Shankar were living legends. But they were all of the old school of Bengali intellectualism. Since then West Bengal was first plagued by 5 decades of a very peculiar Marxist communism. Just two layers of society were recognised. First came the agricultural masses who were all organised into almost-martial cadres and then there were the politburo and its hangers-on who amassed their corrupt wealth. The middle class and those who actually contributed to growth and culture and thought were reviled and oppressed. Marxist communism collapsed in on itself after years of decay. The communists were then replaced by an even more peculiar bunch, the Trinamool Congress. They are led by the narcissistic Mamata Banerjee with the slogan “Ma Mati Manush”  which is supposed to mean “Mother, Motherland and People” but where the sub-text says “Me, Me and Me”.

As an aside, I note that in spite of the efforts of post- nationalists, Theatre Road is still Theatre Road to all taxi drivers. It was renamed as  Shakespeare Sarani during my time there in the 1960s but that is only for maps and road signs. More than 50 years after the name was changed, the Post Office will still deliver your mail addressed to Theatre Road. Lansdowne Road is still Lansdowne Road and many don’t even know it is now called Sarat Bose Road. Lower Circular Road  is still referred to as such, though it is officially Acharya Jagadish Chandra Bose Road. Who does not know Park Street (officially Mother Teresa Sarani and earlier Burial Ground Road) and Park Circus? Camac Street and Free School Street were part of my schooldays beat and are still there – though the building we lived in no longer exists. Officialdom can be schizophrenic and is often irrational. High Courts are set up by Acts of Parliament and their names cannot be changed so easily. So it is the High Court of Calcutta in Kolkata. The Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose International Airport is the mouthful rarely uttered for what was Dum Dum airport and is still designated CCU.

In the 1970s post-intellectual Bengal produced a vicious and violent movement – the Naxals – who considered themselves intellectuals but who in reality were anything but. They considered themselves Maoist communists, engaged in a permanent revolution (a la the cultural revolution) and naturally opposed to everybody else, including the Marxist communists in power in the state. Mayhem was the name of the game. Culturally they were the Bengali Taliban. Many of the starry-eyed, self-styled and self-proclaimed “intellectual” leaders were killed by vicious police and army actions in the early 1970s. Some of my class mates were among them. This revolutionary communist movement still exists in pockets and has spread to other states. But the movement lacks any intellectual content or realism.

In recent times intellectuals from West Bengal have been few and those few have been relatively lightweight. Amartya Sen may have received a Nobel prize but it was only for economics which does not really count. His theories suffer from the confusion of his wanting to be a capitalistic socialist and he ends up being nothing of anything. Pranab Mukherjee was a disaster as a Finance Minister and is nondescript as President. Intellectually, just a bantam-weight.

It is a post-intellectual, post-nationalist West Bengal struggling to find a new role for itself.

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Monsoon slow to reach North West but rainfall running 11% above average

June 22, 2015

In spite of a forecast of a deficient monsoon, a late start and a possible El Nino year, so far, so good.

The advance of the monsoon front is a little slow across central India and into the North West. Pakistan is experiencing a heat wave.

monsoon advance June 21st 2015 - IMD

monsoon advance June 21st 2015 – IMD

Rainfall has been holding up quite well. Accumulated rainfall across the entire country (weighted average) in the 3 weeks of the 16 week long monsoon season is running about 11% higher than the long-term average. Rainfall is deficient (from a low expected value) only in the North West region and is above average elsewhere. Even rainfall in the Southern region which often starts deficient is running some 20% above average. In this period the heaviest rainfall is usually in the North East and even here it is running 5% above normal.

rainfall till 20th june 2015 - IMD

rainfall till 20th june 2015 – IMD

The start, at least, is better than was feared and the government will be relieved that the emergency plans for “drought” conditions will not, yet, need to be activated.

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Greek deal will be done: Bread rather than Guernica

June 22, 2015

I was listening to Swedish, UK and German radio this morning and one could be forgiven for being utterly depressed. But surprisingly, the blackness went over the top. It was too much. The picture being painted by all the pundits and commentators seemed a little surreal. The picture left in my mind is of  Salvador Dali’s “Basket of Bread” rather than Picasso’s “Guernica”.

bread rather than destruction

bread rather than destruction

So instead, I am feeling remarkably upbeat. Maybe I am just an optimist and would rather see bread than destruction. But I am sufficiently “moved” that I shall make a forecast for the next few weeks.

Tsipras will make statements which seem like that he will do something about curtailing pensions. These will be worded sufficiently loosely such that the Eurozone Finance Ministers can accept the assurances and still have their posteriors covered. Tsipras will have sufficient face-saving text so that he can argue domestically that pensions will not actually be cut when the turnaround occurs and that the turnaround is just around the next corner (or maybe the one after that).

The ECB will make further emergency arrangements so that the current run on Greek banks will not be unmanageable. (By some accounts Greek banks have seen some €20 billion withdrawn).

The payment due to the IMF will be paid.

A short-term (6 month?) deal will be done and the whole problem of a non-homogeneous and splintered Eurozone will be patched up for the short term

Which is good for the short term but which, in the long term and if the Eurozone does not become homogeneous, will give a very big bang when it implodes.

There is a little more brinkmanship to go through until the Greek payment actually falls due at then end of the month.  But I expect a real jump in European markets – and followed by the Asian markets – when Greece makes the payment due and a “deal” is announced. Probably by the end of June.

Maybe it is time to pick up some equity bargains.

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