Philae unanchored and bounced – but now stable – on 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

November 13, 2014

Philae successfully separated from Rosetta and arrived at Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. It did land but its anchoring harpoons apparently failed to fire.  Magnetic field data indicates that Philae has touched down at least 3 times. After the first, the lander bounced and took over 2 hours to touch down again. It bounced again and then touched down 7 minutes later. It is hoped that it has come to rest with the 3rd touchdown but this will not be confirmed till this morning. (Update! It has just been confirmed that the lander is on the surface, stable and sending pictures. Its attitude is not known but full data transmission seems to have been established. Data on the tomography of the comet’s nucleus is also being transmitted).

A remarkable achievement after a 10 year journey. Now the Rosetta orbiter will remain in close proximity to the comet and will accompany it as it approaches the Sun. The Rosetta mission is due to end in December 2015. “By then, both the spacecraft and the comet will have circled the Sun and be on their way out of the inner Solar System”.

Philae bouncing

The Rolis instrument on Philae took this picture on descent:

 

The image shows comet 67P/CG acquired by the ROLIS instrument on the Philae lander during descent on Nov 12, 2014 14:38:41 UT from a distance of approximately 3 km from the surface. The landing site is imaged with a resolution of about 3m per pixel.

The ROLIS instrument is a down-looking imager that acquires images during the descent and doubles as a multispectral close-up camera after the landing. The aim of the ROLIS experiment is to study the texture and microstructure of the comet’s surface. ROLIS (ROsetta Lander Imaging System) is a descent and close-up camera on the Philae Lander. It has been developed by the DLR Institute of Planetary Research, Berlin. The lander separated from the orbiter at 09:03 GMT (10:03 CET) and touched down on Comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko seven hours later.

Measuring success in Afghanistan

November 12, 2014

Land being used for opium cultivation has risen from less than 100,000 hectares before the war in 2001 to about 225,000 hectares this year!

Opium cultivation in Afghanistan

Opium cultivation in Afghanistan

BBC:

Cultivation of opium poppies in Afghanistan has hit new records this year as Nato pulls out combat troops. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) said opium production was up by 17% since last year. Its Afghan Opium Survey 2014 said the area under poppy cultivation had risen by 7% to cover 224,000 hectares.

UNODC head Yury Fedotov warned there was a serious risk Afghanistan could become a narco-state, following the withdrawal of foreign forces.

Most poppies are still grown in southern Helmand province, where British troops were stationed until October.

Saudi attack on shale oil could backfire

November 12, 2014

If the recent drop in oil price has been engineered (even in part) by Saudi Arabia as an attempt to put some of the burgeoning shale oil production sites out of business they will need to go much further. A break-even for shale oil production is probably at less than $50 per barrel. In any event the drop so far (25%+ in 6 months) is just the fillip the world economy needs. Saudi Arabia is probably not as vulnerable as other oil producing countries but increasing production to drive down the oil price is a dangerous game which could be self-defeating. Whether the current glut is just due to reduced world (read Chinese) demand and increased shale oil (US) production or has also been exacerbated by increased Saudi production, the oil consumer wins. Consumption will increase – and that will automatically reduce the glut and further increase the production of oil from shale.

If the global economy is to come out of the doldrums it needs the Asian economies – the tigers, the dragon and the elephant – to start prowling in earnest. Increasing consumption in the developing world seems to be one of the most effective ways of stimulating the world economy. It inevitably leads to increased production of consumer goods in the developed countries. And this current step-reduction of oil price could be just the trigger that is needed.

Yesterday the price of crude (WTI) was at about $77 per barrel and that price is sufficient to keep even the small shale oil wells in operation.

crude oil price Nov 2014

crude oil price Nov 2014

 

MH 370 to be declared “lost” and search to end by year-end

November 12, 2014

It has been over 8 months now since MH370 vanished on March 8th with all its 239 crew and passengers.

That the mystery continues, in these times of almost universal surveillance, where even distant comets passing by Mars can be observed in real time, is unfathomable. To say that black magic was involved is almost as irrefutable as any other proposed explanation. But it was not black magic. It was almost certainly a “black operation”, an “engineered affair”. Somebody knows what happened. And what I find equally disturbing is that the world can so easily put the whole unexplained, chilling episode aside and move on.

The relatives of the victims and the unfortunate Malaysian Airlines cannot find any kind of closure. But by the end of the year the plane could be officially declared “lost” and that would allow the search to be ended. That would allow Malaysian Airlines to make “final” compensation and then calculate a liability cap and draw a financial line.

NZ Herald: Speaking to The New Zealand Herald today, the airline’s commercial director, Hugh Dunleavy said that it was waiting for the aircraft to be officially declared lost after going missing in March with 239 people on board. It is thought to have flown into the Indian Ocean off the coast of Western Australia. 

The Australian and Malaysian governments were working together to set a date to formally announce the loss of MH370 and that was likely to be set by the end of the year.

“We don’t have a final date but once we’ve had an official loss recorded we can work with the next of kin on the full compensation payments for those families.” ….. 

Dunleavy said the Montreal Convention had set the ceiling on compensation at around US$175,000 although passengers could take legal action to pursue higher payments.

“We will ensure we do compensate them for the loss of their loved ones through our insurers,” he said. ….. 

“We are trying to hurry (compensation)it up as much as we can but some of these things are outside the scope of the airline itself. If they’re not happy with the compensation then they seek legal advice and move ahead, then once they come in our people will assess them and respond.”

Paying out relatives of those killed aboard MH17 over the Ukraine was more straightforward.

“We know exactly what happened with that aircraft and we can move ahead with the full compensation of family members aboard that aircraft,” Dunleavy said at the end of his visit which included meetings with travel agents and the tourism bodies.

I can understand the Commercial Director’s frustration at not knowing what happened and not being able to assess the final liability. Dr. Hugh Noel Dunleavy is the Head of Network, Alliance & Planning and Director of Commercial at Malaysian Airlines and was appointed in January 2012.

 

MH370: Theoretical Search Area

Even the calculations of the “theoretical search area” could just be a red herring. Nothing is believable and therefore everything is possible.

A hierarchy of parents

November 11, 2014

Adoption, abortion and IVF or surrogacy followed by adoption are all regulated mainly from the needs and desires of the prospective parents. Abortion is almost on demand. Gay couples exploit surrogacy possibilities to acquire children on demand. Adoption of orphans or abandoned children is supposed to be based on the best interests of the child but the child rarely gets the chance to choose.

But what if a child could choose its parents ………

Assume that wealth is just a qualifying criteria and does not dominate or corrupt the regulations. Assume further that unstable individuals, paedophiles, sexual predators and unstable relationships have magically been excluded. Let us take for granted that all individuals have qualified by passing a basic “parenting competence” test. (And why isn’t parenting competence a subject that is taught?)

How then would a child choose its parents?

My perception of a child’s preferences:

Category 1 – Preferred

  1. Biological mother and biological father

Category 2 – Acceptable

  1. Biological mother and step-father
  2. Biological father and step-mother
  3. Unrelated heterosexual couple

Category 3 – Conditionally Acceptable

  1. Single mother (biological)
  2. Single father (biological)
  3. Biological mother and lesbian partner (girl-child only)
  4. Biological father and gay partner (boy-child only)
  5. Unrelated lesbian couple (girl child only)
  6. Unrelated gay couple (boy-child only)

Category 4 – Disallowed

  1. Single unrelated mother
  2. Single unrelated father
  3. Biological mother and lesbian partner for a boy-child
  4. Biological father and gay partner for a girl-child
  5. Unrelated lesbian couple for a boy-child
  6. Unrelated gay couple for a girl-child

Given a choice and everything else being equal, no child – I think – would prefer anything other than having its biological father and mother as its parents.

Anniversaries: Berlin Wall fall – 25 years, Kristallnacht -76 years

November 9, 2014

The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 was something I watched unfold, live, on TV 25 years ago. And it is surely something to be remembered and celebrated.

But tonight is also the 76th anniversary of Kristallnacht in 1938 when the Nazis went on their rampage against Jews throughout Germany and Austria and East Prussia. That needs no celebration but it does need to be remembered.

And without Kristallnacht there would have been no Cold War and no Berlin Wall.

Kristallnacht: Over 1,000 synagogues were burned (95 in Vienna alone) and over 7,000 Jewish businesses destroyed or damaged. Martin Gilbert writes that no event in the history of German Jews between 1933 and 1945 was so widely reported as it was happening, and the accounts from the foreign journalists working in Germany sent shock waves around the world. The Times wrote at the time: “No foreign propagandist bent upon blackening Germany before the world could outdo the tale of burnings and beatings, of blackguardly assaults on defenseless and innocent people, which disgraced that country yesterday.”

The pretext for the attacks was the assassination of the German diplomat Ernst vom Rath by Herschel Grynszpan, a German-born Polish Jew living in Paris. Kristallnacht was followed by additional economic and political persecution of Jews, and is viewed by historians as part of Nazi Germany’s broader racial policy, and the beginning of the Final Solution and The Holocaust.

Muharram in Mumbai

November 9, 2014
A Shi'ite Muslim has his child gashed with a knife during a Muharram procession ahead of Ashoura in Mumbai, November 3, 2014. REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui

A Shi’ite Muslim has his child gashed with a knife during a Muharram procession ahead of Ashoura in Mumbai, November 3, 2014. REUTERS/Danish Siddiqui

What freedom of religion?

What freedom of choice?

Should we blame the little boy for having such a father or 

the religion and its high priests for inducing such behaviour?

“Green” ministers in Swedish government off to a rocky start

November 7, 2014

It has only been a month since the new Red/Green government took over in Sweden. So it is early days yet. Inexperience abounds both among the Social Democrats (the senior coalition partner) and among the Environment party ministers. The Social Democrats are running a little scared and appear to be bent on appeasing far left and Green party demands. The far left party is not in government but has an inordinate influence since the coalition itself does not have its own majority. The Green party has already stopped many development projects around Stockholm (as they usually do) and the Social Democrats have not been strong enough to stop their job destruction.

The Green party does not have party leaders – only spokespersons – which is a wonderful way of evading responsibility. They have six ministers in the new government. The group is very politically correct with 3 men and 3 women. But with ages ranging between 31 and 51, I observe that they have little chance of (and no interest in) reflecting the views of the increasing number of senior citizens.

Any new government must have its share of inexperience and I have no quarrel with that. But incompetence in a minister is not so forgivable. They have not particularly enhanced their reputations so far. Instead many have been demonstrating an inexperience which borders on either an embarrassing level of naiveté or some level of incompetence. I don’t have any great expectations of them.

  • Åsa Romson, 42, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for the Environment and Climate, is usually fairly circumspect in what she says.  She has a doctorate in international environmental rights but her speeches tend to be a string of very politically correct cliches. There is little evidence of an open mind or any great thought beyond the parroting of cliches. She has however demonstrated a sad lack of judgement by appointing a convicted drug trafficker to the Cabinet Office as her closest aide. She has defended her choice on the grounds that he has served his sentence and has paid his debt to society. But she misses the point. It is her judgement in having someone who is known to drink himself senseless and who is a convicted drug trafficker at the highest office of government which is in question. I would have thought that he would be privy to a great many confidential matters and an obvious security risk.
  • Gustav Fridolin, 31, is the Education Minister (!). He has been a peace activist, been arrested by the Israelis in the West Bank  and won Junior Jeopardy at the age of 11. By the age of 19 he was a Member of Parliament. He has also been a TV reporter. He has not attended university or any other form of higher education. Soon after being appointed he addressed all Swedish teachers by YouTube! A remarkably patronising effort directed at teachers as if they were 10 year old children. If I were a teacher I would be horribly depressed by the childish approach of the Education Minister. He too demonstrated some poor judgement when he chose an aide to work within government who was then rejected (after having worked for two days) by the Security Services for being heavily in debt.
  • Per Bolund, 43, is the Deputy Finance Minister and the Minister for Financial Markets and Consumers. He is by education a biologist but never completed his doctorate. He has not made any real blunders yet, though his immediate castigation of Swedish banks when they came through the recent stress tests with flying colours, seemed more a reflex, ideological twitch rather than any considered opinion. As a member of the Environmental party it is not in his genes to ever acknowledge that any part of the finance sector has done well. He is – of course – generally in favour of raising taxes wherever possible.
  • Isabella Lövin, 51, is the Minister of International Development Cooperation (Foreign Aid) and has kept a relatively low profile so far. She made some fine sounding statements about the €16 million Swedish support (out of €1 billion from the EC and the EU)  for helping the African countries fighting Ebola. Unfortunately this was somewhat negated by the subsequent Swedish rejection of a request for treatment of an aid worker suspected to have been infected. She was not the one to make the rejection which was more due to a bureaucratic approach to emergency situations. She has probably supported the government in its largely symbolic – but rather useless – gesture of recognising the state of Palestine. Another “feel good” action without objectives.
  • Mehmet Kaplan, 43, is of Turkish origin and is the Housing and City Development Minister. In July this year he equated the ISIS jihadists with freedom fighters. He has been very active in the past in trying to get subsidies for mosques but his record on Sharia Law and radicalisation of young Muslims is rather ambivalent. The right-wing Sweden Democrats like to target him, but he does gets a little bit of a free ride from the media and other politicians because of his opponents’ fear of being seen as islamophobic and politically incorrect. (A little reminiscent of the politicians who did not dare enough in Rotherham). He has yet to make his mark.
  • Alice Bah Kuhnke, 43, is the Minister of Culture and Democracy and has made a rather inept start. She has a degree in political science and is best known as a children’s programme and talk-show host on Swedish TV. She had a disastrous radio interview where she rejected many questions for being hypothetical. Her attempts to correct the fiasco with her own article in the press only made it worse. Surprisingly she is not comfortable in granting the press access and tries to control and micro-manage their questions. She is also getting herself horribly mixed up whenever she tries to equate culture with ecology and sustainable development. Her take on what constitutes culture leaves a little to be desired.

This group of six do not fill with me any great confidence but it is early days yet.

Maybe they will all grow into their jobs. Maybe they will perform better than my very low expectations.

But as a group they have not started very well. I am left with the impression that they are all a little too light-weight for the responsibilities that they may well fail to carry. There is a real risk that this group of six will only help in bringing this government further into disrepute.

Juncker’s Luxembourg marketed tax avoidance

November 6, 2014

Maybe it’s just my jaundiced vision, but I don’t see the European Commission as being any repository for ethics or good behaviour.

Of course Luxembourg’s economy is dominated by its banking sector. In global competition it depends on its banks and financial institutions having a competitive advantage over other countries. And it now becomes clear that the country’s government did as much as they could to ensure that the country’s laws allowed these institutions to market and exercise this advantage.

Jean-Claude Juncker

Jean-Claude Juncker

It has now been revealed that Luxembourg, its government, its bureaucrats and its institutions have actively marketed their “tax avoidance” services to at least 340 major companies. Much of this was during the time that Jean-Claude Juncker was Prime Minister of Luxembourg between 1995 and 2013. This is the same high-living Juncker who is the new President of the European Commission and declared 3 months ago that he would “try to put some morality, some ethics, into the European tax landscape.”  Juncker lives up to my low expectations of EU mandarins.

Of course tax avoidance is legal and not tax evasion. I have little sympathy for politicians who blame corporations for taking advantage of the rules they themselves make to minimise their tax payments. Any corporation would be failing in its fiduciary duties if it did not legally try to minimise its tax burden. For that matter any individual who for want of being familiar with the rules, payed more tax than he had to – even if it was for philanthropic reasons – would be just a fool.

(This has nothing to do with my view that taxes based on wealth generation are fundamentally counter-productive and should instead be based on wealth consumption or destruction).

The Guardian:

A cache of almost 28,000 pages of leaked tax agreements, returns and other sensitive papers relating to over 1,000 businesses paints a damning picture of an EU state which is quietly rubber-stamping tax avoidance on an industrial scale.

The documents show that major companies — including drugs group Shire, City trading firm Icap and vacuum cleaner firm Dyson, who are headquartered in the UK or Ireland — have used complex webs of internal loans and interest payments which have slashed the companies’ tax bills. These arrangements, signed off by the Grand Duchy, are perfectly legal.

The documents also show how some 340 companies from around the world arranged specially-designed corporate structures with the Luxembourg authorities. The businesses include corporations such as Pepsi, Ikea, Accenture, Burberry, Procter & Gamble, Heinz, JP Morgan and FedEx. Leaked papers relating to the Coach handbag firm, drugs group Abbott Laboratories, Amazon, Deutsche Bank and Australian financial group Macquarie are also included. …….. 

……. The revelations will be embarrassing for the new president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, who was prime minister of Luxembourg between 1995 and 2013. In a speech in Brussels in July, Juncker promised to “try to put some morality, some ethics, into the European tax landscape.” He has insisted that the country is not a tax haven.

Pressure is already building on Luxembourg after the European Commission launched a formal investigation into whether Amazon’s tax arrangements in the Grand Duchy amount to unfair state aid. The Luxembourg tax arrangements of Italian carmaker Fiat’s finance unit are also under official scrutiny by Brussels.

Asked recently if such a crackdown risked damaging the economy of Luxembourg, one senior figure closely involved in the G20 reform programme said: “I don’t care. It is like saying: ‘If you fight drugs there will be no jobs in certain parts of Mexico.’” …… 

 

MH17: Dutch PM’s call for “independent” inquiry adds weight to Russian theory

November 5, 2014

There are two theories about the shooting down of Malaysian Airlines MH17 and the murder of 298 passengers and crew (where over 60% were Dutch):

  1. that the aircraft was shot down by a BUK ground-to-air missile fired by Russian separatists in Ukraine and perhaps in the mistaken belief that they were shooting at a Ukrainian military transport plane. This is the theory that is favoured by the Ukrainian government, most western countries and by NATO.
  2. that the aircraft was shot down mistakenly by a Ukrainian fighter jet using an air-to-air missile. This was followed by cannon fire perhaps because the mistake was realised and no survivors could be permitted. This theory is supported by the Russians and the Russian separatists.

The Russian theory was initially ridiculed by the Ukrainians, NATO countries and the western media. But a few weeks ago the Dutch investigators let slip the information that at least one oxygen mask had been deployed and this was much more consistent with a weaker air-to-air missile followed by cannon fire rather than the much more powerful BUK ground-to-air missile. A BUK ground-to-air missile would not have given any time for the oxygen mask to deploy. Moreover a multitude of regular holes were found in the remains of the fuselage. They were too regular to just be shrapnel and their size and regularity were consistent with high velocity cannon fire. Then the lead Dutch prosecutor in an interview with der Spiegel would not categorically rule out the Russian theory.

Now the Dutch Prime Minister has called for a “thorough, independent inquiry” into the shooting down of MH17, again insinuating that the assumed theory of a ground-to-air missile has some fundamental flaws.

Reuters:

Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte on Wednesday stressed the importance of a thorough, independent investigation of the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 before any decision on where those responsible should face trial.

The Dutch have the lead role in investigating the downing of theBoeing 777 aircraft, which crashed over rebel-held territory in eastern Ukraine in July with the loss of all 298 people aboard, two thirds of them Dutch.

With the crash site too dangerous to access due to fighting, they have been relying mostly on publicly available information to carry out a remote investigation.

“What we now have to do is through the independent safety boards to exactly understand what happened and the public prosecutors have to work on the prosecution which follows from this,” Rutte said, when asked if the International Criminal Court was the right venue for any trial.

“Then it has to be decided at what court it should take place. As we see things now, it is not most likely that the International Criminal Court is most suited to this.”

Rutte was on a one-day visit to Kuala Lumpur to meet his Malaysian counterpart, Najib Razak. Rutte flew from Amsterdam on Flight MH19, re-named from MH17 after the disaster. …. 

Kiev blames pro-Russian separatists for the airliner’s destruction. Russia says a Ukrainian military aircraft shot it down.

A report by the Dutch safety board said in September that MH17 crashed after a “large number of high-energy objects”penetrated its fuselage.

The reluctance of the Dutch investigators, the lead prosecutor and now the Prime Minister to just accept the NATO supported theory is, I think, a clear indication that the Russian theory is a much more likely explanation than is being acknowledged.