Cloud Image wins National Geographic competition

August 26, 2014

See also the clouds at this post.

The Independence day by Marko Korošec 2014 NG Traveler winner

The Independence day by Marko Korošec 2014 NG Traveler winner

First Place Winner: The Independence Day

Photo and caption by Marko Korošec

While on storm chasing expeditions in Tornado Alley in the U.S. I have encountered many photogenic supercell storms. This photograph was taken while we were approaching a storm near Julesburg, Colorado, on May 28, 2013. The storm was tornado warned for more than one hour, but it stayed an LP [low precipitation] storm through all its cycles and never produced a tornado, just occasional brief funnels, large hail, and some rain.

National Geographic Traveler Director of Photography Dan Westergren, one of this year’s judges, shares his thoughts on the first-place winner:

“This winning photo of a supercell over the plains of eastern Colorado stopped the judges in our tracks. When we first saw the picture we guessed that the photographer probably had dedicated quite a bit of time chasing storms to capture such an amazing sight. But what makes the picture particularly strong is that except for the cloud, the rest of the scene is quite ordinary. The crazy UFO-looking shape gives the impression that it’s going to suck up the landscape like a tablecloth into a vacuum cleaner. The unresolved tension in the image makes me want to look at it over and over.”

Location: Julesburg, Colorado, USA

How to drill a square hole

August 26, 2014
how to drill a square hole (via imgur)

how to drill a square hole (via imgur)

gif image from here

A new, “warmer” header

August 25, 2014

I have changed the image on the header, partly because the colours of autumn – which is only just setting in -are quite breathtaking and yet very warm (though the image is from October 2013).

And I find that I am posting on whatever takes my fancy and not just about energy and environment – but they are all just opinions.

Previous header image – winter

 

Swedish fish thrive on anti-anxiety drugs

August 25, 2014

Silver linings.

Not all man-made waste is detrimental to wildlife. Pike (perch) in waters contaminated with anti-anxiety drugs were found to be more social, had an increased survival rate on hatching and showed more activity 30 days after hatching. Generally the beneficial effects of man-made “contaminants” are neither expected nor looked for. “Most studies of risks from pharmaceutical pollution are conducted along the lines of standard tests for environmental toxins in ecosystems. …. and are structured in a way that hampers the detection of possible positive effects of medicinal contaminants”.

Perhaps anti-anxiety medication (like benzodiazepines or antidepressants or beta-blockers) could be used more widely – intentionally – for the mass treatment of unacceptably anxious or aggressive animals? I particularly like the comment that the fish were more social. I have a vision of man eating tigers being socialised on Prozac!

Nordic Science: Swedish scientists showed in 2013 that pike (or perch) that came in contact with water contaminated with the drug Oxazepam ― commonly used to treat anxiety ― exhibited changes in behaviour. They became more social and even more daring in their hunt for food.

Swedish researcher Tomas Brodin and his colleagues have returned with a new publication about the perch that lived in an experimental environment laced with antidepressants. They actually fared better than fish in water free of the drug. Fewer of the lightly drugged fish died over the course of the experiment.

J Klaminder et al, The conceptual imperfection of aquatic risk assessment tests: highlighting the need for tests designed to detect therapeutic effects of pharmaceutical contaminants, Environ. Res. Lett. 9 (2014) 084003, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084003

Abstract

Standardized ecotoxicological tests still constitute the fundamental tools when doing risk-assessment of aquatic contaminants. These protocols are managed towards minimal mortality in the controls, which is not representative for natural systems where mortality is often high. This methodological bias, generated from assays where mortality in the control group is systematically disregarded, makes it difficult to measure therapeutic effects of pharmaceutical contaminants leading to lower mortality. This is of concern considering that such effects on exposed organisms still may have substantial ecological consequences. In this paper, we illustrate this conceptual problem by presenting empirical data for how the therapeutic effect of Oxazepam—a common contaminant of surface waters—lower mortality rates among exposed Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis) from wild populations, at two different life stages. We found that fry hatched from roe that had been exposed to dilute concentrations (1.1 ± 0.3 μg l−1) of Oxazepam for 24 h 3–6 days prior to hatching showed lower mortality rates and increased activity 30 days after hatching. Similar effects, i.e. increased activity and lower mortality rates were also observed for 2-year old perch exposed to dilute Oxazepam concentrations (1.2 ± 0.4 μg l−1). We conclude that therapeutic effects from pharmaceutical contaminants need to be considered in risk assessment assays to avoid that important ecological effects from aquatic contaminants are systematically missed.

Tony Blair as spin doctor for ISIS next?

August 25, 2014

Tony Blair’s venal opportunism in Kazakhstan is well established. After the massacre of 15 civilian protesters in 2011, he has had a lucrative business acting as spin doctor for President Nursultan Nazarbeyev by video interviews and personal advice and speech writing.

The Guardian: In a letter to Nursultan Nazarbeyev, Blair told the autocratic ruler that the December 2011 deaths, “tragic though they were, should not obscure the enormous progress that Kazakhstan has made”. Blair advised Nazarbeyev that when dealing with the western media, he should tackle the events in Zhanaozen, when police opened fire on protesters, including oil workers demanding higher wages, “head-on”. ……  he also suggested passages to be inserted into a speech the president was giving at the University of Cambridge aimed at counteracting any bad publicity. One read: “By all means make your points and I assure you we’re listening. But give us credit for the huge change of a positive nature we have brought about”.

The former Labour leader’s consultancy, Tony Blair Associates, set up in the capital, Astana, in October 2011, signing a multi- million pound deal to advise Kazakhstan’s leadership on good governance, just months after Nazarbeyev was controversially re-elected with 96% of the vote and weeks before the massacre.

Tony Blair is also – believe it or not – the EU’s Middle East Envoy!

While one could question the wisdom (folly?) of the EU in such a choice, there is no doubt that Blair will be able to, and will, leverage this appointment to win future consultancy contracts in the Middle East. He is gaining – based on his record – quite a reputation as being able to “spin” death and destruction to the media and to politicians as “regrettable but unavoidable and don’t forget all the good things”. He well knows how to “sex” up a dossier.

It is now reported that the gruesome and barbarous murder of James Foley by a British ISIS Jihadi also had publicity objectives.

News.com: THE beheading of American journalist, James Foley, at the hands of ISIS militants shocked the world but forensic experts have revealed the video was probably staged, with the murder happening off camera. ….. ……… an international forensic science company, which has worked for police forces across Britain, said there is no question Foley was beheaded but that camera trickery and post-production techniques look to have been used.

“I think it has been staged,” said one expert in visual forensics, after he was commissioned by The UK Times to examine the footage. “My feeling is that the execution may have happened after the camera was stopped.”

Aymenn al-Tamimi, a fellow at the Middle East Forum think-tank, said over the years ISIS militants have improved the production quality of their videos.

The analysis by experts has highlighted a number of inconsistencies that could suggest that the beheading of Foley, which was seen on the video, was not his actual death.

ISIS is not short of money. The Spanish, French and German governments have been reported to have paid large ransoms to ISIS to get their hostages released. The reports are of tens of millions of Euros paid. The demand for releasing James Foley was said to have been $132 million. But the UK and the US generally do not pay ransoms. In any event,  “ISIS has about $2 billion in its war chest”. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE and Qatar are also apparently quite generous in their funding of ISIS.

So ISIS would seem to be able to afford the best in weapons. They would even have the funds sufficient and necessary to employ Tony Blair Associates. Blair should be able to come up with some helpful and creative suggestions for ISIS on how to get more positive coverage from the world media and improve upon the scripts to be used in their video executions?

Scotland vote is devolving into “yes” for a pink €

August 24, 2014

I am trying from a distance to follow the arguments being aired in Scotland about the joys and sorrows to be expected from a “yes” or a “no” vote in the referendum on independence to be held on 18th September.

Most of the discussions / debates I have heard have just been so much hot air (shades of grey being presented as black or white). The only issue that I have found to be of any real relevance is whether Scotland really wants to become a Euro country or not. If Scotland votes “yes”, it will have to reapply to become a member of the European Union and while that membership will not be delayed too long, an independent Scottish pound will be swamped and Scotland will probably have little chance to avoid entering the European Monetary Union and adopting the €.

Though Alex Salmond seems to be saying that Scotland can continue with the £, that is just wishful thinking and is not within his control. He may still call it the Scots Pound and he could peg it either to the the £ or to the US$. But then it will probably become a target for currency speculation and there will not be enough weight in the Scottish economy to withstand such speculation. As fracking grows in the UK and the North Sea reserves shrink it can only get worse. For a small economy forced to join the €, there are – I think – more disadvantages than there are advantages. And for small countries dependent primarily upon tourism it is worst. Larger economies with large exports have the greatest benefit.

In any event, the Scottish referendum will effectively decide whether it will remain a Sterling country or will join the Euro. And if they decide to join the Euro, they may not have a completely Red Euro but it could well be pink.

Pink Scots Euro

Pink Scots Euro

Iceland raises Bárðarbunga volcano warning to red

August 23, 2014

The Icelandic Met Office has issued the following warning:

It is believed that a small subglacial lava-eruption has begun under the Dyngjujökull glacier. The aviation color code for the Bárðarbunga volcano has been changed from orange to red.

23rd August 2014 17:08 – status report

Overall assessment from the joint daily status report 230814 of the Icelandic Met Office and the University of Iceland, Institute of Earth Sciences:

The aviation color code has been raised to “red” as the data is currently interpreted as a subglacial eruption. Both the thickness of the ice at the possible contact point (100-400 m) and the volume of lava in possible contact with ice are highly uncertain. It could be 0-20 hours before lava reaches the surface of the ice. It is also possible that the lava will not break through the ice, and the eruption could remain subglacial.

vatnajokull glacier and its volcanoes image wired.com

vatnajokull glacier and its volcanoes image wired.com

There is no telling how large or how small this eruption may be. But it has been 23 years (Pinatubo, 1991) since a VEI 5+ volcano eruption somewhere in the world and such an eruption is now “overdue“:

Through the 20th century, an eruption of intensity 5 or greater came at intervals varying from 1 year upto 23 years with an average interval of just under 7 years.

Madras Day, the Coromandel coast and the Yonghy-Bonghy-Bo

August 23, 2014

Madras Day: 22nd August 1639 – 2014

Madras Day was celebrated yesterday as the 375th anniversary of the founding of the city now known as Chennai on the Coromandel coast.

Andrew Cogan and Francis Day’s factory site on an uninhabited sandy strip eventually grew to become one of India’s renowned metropolises, and the capital city of Tamil Nadu. Every year, August 22 is celebrated as Madras Day, and this year, 2014, is Chennai’s 375 birthday.

Excerpt from Edward Lear’s The Courtship of the Yonghi-Bonghi-Bo  (this should be read in its entirety and only be read aloud)

On the Coast of Coromandel
Where the early pumpkins blow,
In the middle of the woods
Lived the Yonghy-Bonghy-Bo.

………….

“On this Coast of Coromandel
Shrimps and watercresses grow,
Prawns are plentiful and cheap,”
Said the Yonghy-Bonghy-Bo.
“You shall have my chairs and candle,
And my jug without a handle!
Gaze upon the rolling deep
(Fish is plentiful and cheap);
As the sea, my love is deep!”
Said the Yonghy-Bonghy-Bo,
Said the Yonghy-Bonghy-Bo.
……….
“Lady Jingly! Lady Jingly! 
Sitting where the pumpkins grow, 
Will you come and be my wife?”
Said the Yonghy-Bònghy-Bò.
……….
Down the slippery slopes of Myrtle,
Where the early pumpkins blow,
To the calm and silent sea
Fled the Yonghy-Bonghy-Bo.
………
From the Coast of Coromandel
Did that Lady never go;
On that heap of stones she mourns
For the Yonghy-Bonghy-Bo.
………
Chola trade under Rajendra Chola c. 1130 Wikimedia

Chola trade under Rajendra Chola c. 1130 Wikimedia

The earliest known settlements in South India date back to more than 2 million years ago in the form of Acheulian stone tools (Lower Paleolithic from about 2.6 million to 300,000 years ago). The oldest human remains (probably homo erectus or archaic homo sapiens)  found is a fossilised infant skull from about 200,000 years ago. The unfortunate and love-sick Yonghi-Bonghi-Bo was never destined to win his Lady Jingly Jones but the Coromandel coast has seen a continuous settlement of humans for over 2 million years. Homo sapiens probably came in two waves; one before the Toba eruption of 74,000 years ago and another perhaps around 50,000 years ago. The Toba eruption was possibly the greatest catastrophe ever visited on humans on that coast. In due course, hunter-gatherers gave way to farmers and the evidence shows that the Neolithic was long established by around 2,600 BCE (4,700 years ago). The early Chola-dynasty rule was established by 100 CE in the Sangam era. They lost power to the Pallavas around 300 CE who in turn were replaced by Pandyas around 600 CE but then the Cholas returned around 900 CE. Whether these medieveal Cholas were truly descendants of the early Cholas is uncertain but they certainly claimed to be. By 1,000 years ago at the height of the Chola Empire, their territories extended well into South-east Asia. Chola traders were finding their way up to today’s Korea, protected by a Navy which even had some blue-water capabilities. The later Cholas were again replaced by the Pandyas in 1279 but the rule of the great Tamil dynasties came to an end with the establishment of the short-lived Madurai Sultanate in 1335 and its many subsequent successors. Then came the colonists. The Portuguese, the Dutch, the British, the Danes and the French. The Portuguese were first. The “realm of the Cholas” in Tamil was “Cholamandalam” and from this came the Portuguese corruption to “C(h)oro-mandel”. Vasco da Gama reached the Western Indian Malabar coast on 20th May 1498. In 1522 they established São Tomé de Meliapore named after St. Thomas who was supposed to have preached at St. Thomas’ Mount between 52 and 70 CE.  The legend is that St. Thomas died here and by 1523, the Portuguese had built a shrine there. “By late 1530 the Coromandel Coast was home to three Portuguese settlements at Nagapattinam, São Tomé de Meliapore, and Pulicat”. The Dutch reached the Coromandel Coast by 1606 and built their Geldria Fort near Pulicat (where the Portuguese were already present) as a staging post to the East Indies. The first British trading post was established in 1610 at Masulipatnam which had been abandoned by the Portuguese. The Danes reached in 1620 in Tranquebar and established a protestant mission. The French were late out and their first permanent colony was not established till they purchased Pondicherry in 1673.

By 1825, the Dutch had lost the last of their trading posts in India. The Danes left Tranquebar in 1845. The British left with Independence in 1947. By 1954 the French had ceded all colonies in India (though not ratified by the French Parliament till 1962). The Portuguese lost all footholds on the Coromandel coast by 1749 and were finally pushed out of India by military action in 1961.

The Coromandel coast 1715

coromandel coast 1715 by moll

coromandel coast 1715 by moll

The British East India Company was quite desperate to find a foothold on the Coromandel coast but their efforts at Pulicat were defeated by the Dutch. They tried at to settle at Peddapalli and Nizampatnam but were laid low by the climate and by disease. The English, after some effort, secured the privilege of building a factory at Masulipatam port.

The Beginnings: 

But they later abandoned their factory and crept away in a small boat to Durgarazpatnam (otherwise known as Armagaon) situated about 35 miles to the north of Pulicat. This place was a miserable port and was too poor to supply the calico cloth which the English wanted for export to Europe. But it was the only safe shelter for the English at the time and here they built a small fort and mounted a few pieces of cannon upon it. But trade did not thrive and the miserable English traders planned to go back to Masulipatam under the protection of a Golden Firman which the Sultan of Golconda was kind enough to give them. But Masulipatam was in the throes of a famine just then ….. 

With Masulipatam unprosperous and Armagaon hopeless, the English traders anxiously looked out for a new site that would be more propitious for them. Mr. Francis Day, the future founder of Madras, who was then a Member of the Masulipatam Council and the Chief of the Armagaon Factory, made a voyage of exploration in 1637 down the coast as far as Pondicherry with a view to choose a site for a new settlement. 

Damarla Venkatapathy Nayak ruled all the coast country from Pulicat to the Portuguese settlement of San Thome now included within the City of Madras. He had his head-quarters at Wandiwash and his brother Ayyappa Nayak resided at Poonamallee, a few miles to the west of Madras, and looked after the affairs of the coast. 

And so it was in August 1639 that Francis Day and Andrew Cogan on behalf of the East India Company purchased a 2 year grant from the Nayak for the village of Madraspattnam and with permission to build a fort and a factory. That became Fort St. George  with the village of Madraspattnam just to the south and a village  – called Chennaipattnam by the locals – to the north.

And the rest is history.

Day and Cogan are commemorated nowhere — except by Madras Day on 22nd August every year. But what is not really known is how the village of Madraspattnam, which clearly existed before Day and Cogan turned up, got its name. In one story it was named after a Christian fisherman named Madresan and in another after a Muslim madrassa in the vicinity. Another story speculates that it was because of the nearby Madre de Dios Church built by the Portuguese in São Tomé de Meliapore. But the story I like best is that it comes from the name of the wealthiest Portuguese family of the time in São Tomé de Meliapore – the Madeiros.

And that is the tale of Chennai on the Coromandel coast which once went by the name of a Portuguese family, where prawns are still plentiful and cheap and where the Yonghy-Bonghy-Bo broke his heart over the Lady Jingly Jones.

Heat is on over weather bureau ‘homogenising temperature records’

August 23, 2014

Reblogged from jennifermarohasy.com.

It really needs little comment, except perhaps that the magnitude of  “homogenisation” or “adjustments”, or “corrections” as applied to the temperature record makes up most of the “global warming” that is claimed.

Homogenisation in Australia, Adjustments in the US. Fancy algorithms to “correct” data, with not a little confirmation bias, could be better described as “fudging”.

Heat is on over weather bureau ‘homogenising temperature records’

EARLIER this year Tim Flannery said “the pause” in global warming was a myth, leading medical scientists called for stronger action on climate change, and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology declared 2013 the hottest year on record. All of this was reported without any discussion of the actual temperature data. It has been assumed that there is basically one temperature series and that it’s genuine.But I’m hoping that after today, with both a feature (page 20) and a news piece (page 9) in The Weekend Australia things have changed forever.

I’m hoping that next time Professor Flannery is interviewed he will be asked by journalists which data series he is relying on: the actual recorded temperatures or the homogenized remodeled series. Because as many skeptics have known for a long time, and as Graham Lloyd reports today for News Ltd, for any one site across this wide-brown land Australia, while the raw data may show a pause, or even cooling, the truncated and homogenized data often shows dramatic warming.

When I first sent Graham Lloyd some examples of the remodeling of the temperature series I think he may have been somewhat skeptical. I know he on-forwarded this information to the Bureau for comment, including three charts showing the homogenization of the minimum temperature series for Amberley.

Mr Lloyd is the Environment Editor for The Australian newspaper and he may have been concerned I got the numbers wrong. He sought comment and clarification from the Bureau, not just for Amberley but also for my numbers pertaining to Rutherglen and Bourke.

I understand that by way of response to Mr Lloyd, the Bureau has not disputed these calculations.

This is significant. The Bureau now admits that it changes the temperature series and quite dramatically through the process of homogenisation.

I repeat the Bureau has not disputed the figures. The Bureau admits that the data is remodelled.

What the Bureau has done, however, is try and justify the changes. In particular, for Amberley the Bureau is claiming to Mr Lloyd that there is very little available documentation for Amberley before 1990 and that information before this time may be “classified”: as in top secret. That’s right, there is apparently a reason for jumping-up the minimum temperatures for Amberley but it just can’t provide Mr Lloyd with the supporting meta-data at this point in time.

Some of the charts I sent to Graham Lloyd earlier this week.

*****
The two articles in The Australian are behind a pay wall here and here. If you don’t already have a subscription to The Australian take one out today, because the articles are important and Graham Lloyd’s work is worth paying for.

If the globe is warming how come relative humidity is decreasing?

August 22, 2014

Increasing temperature leads to a greater capacity for air to hold moisture (the specific humidity). The actual amount of moisture held in a sample of air as a proportion of the capacity of that air to hold moisture is termed the relative humidity and is usually given as a percentage.

Specific humidity (g/kg) versus temperature for air  earthobservatory.nasa.gov

All climate computer models usually assume a constant relative humidity.

Nasa: In climate modeling, scientists have assumed that the relative humidity of the atmosphere will stay the same regardless of how the climate changes. In other words, they assume that even though air will be able to hold more moisture as the temperature goes up, proportionally more water vapor will be evaporated from the ocean surface and carried through the atmosphere so that the percentage of water in the air remains constant. Climate models that assume that future relative humidity will remain constant predict greater increases in the Earth’s temperature in response to increased carbon dioxide than models that allow relative humidity to change. The constant-relative-humidity assumption places extra water in the equation, which increases the heating.

Relative humidity has decreased steadily for over 60 years. All computer models which assume constant relative humidity will overestimate the feedback and the degree of warming.

Forbes carries an article about the mismatch between computer models and actual observations.

Forbes: Water vapor is a much more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, so substantial increases in atmospheric water vapor can certainly cause significant warming. United Nations computer models are programmed to assume that absolute humidity (the total amount of water vapor in the atmosphere) will rise so much that even relative humidity (the percent of water vapor in the atmosphere) will at least keep pace and perhaps even increase. Warmer air is able to hold more water than cooler air, so absolute water vapor would have to increase quite substantially for relative humidity to remain constant or increase in a warming world.

Scientists, however, have been measuring relative humidity for many decades. Rather than keeping pace with modestly warming temperatures, relative humidity is declining. This decline has been ongoing, without interruption, for more than 60 years. After more than six decades of consistent data, we can say with strong confidence that absolute humidity is not rising rapidly enough for relative humidity to keep pace with warming temperatures.

Global Relative Humidity 300 -700mb

Global Relative Humidity 300 – 700mb  (300mb corresponds to about 9,000 m altitude)

The failure of relative humidity to hold constant or rise during recent decades is a lethal dagger in the heart of alarmist global warming claims. According to the UN computer models, rapidly rising absolute humidity will cause substantially more global warming than the modest warming directly caused by rising carbon dioxide levels. Given the potency of water vapor, even a small overstatement of atmospheric humidity levels in UN computer models will cause a very significant overstatement of future warming. And the data show UN computer models assume too much atmospheric humidity.

The effects of this overstatement are apparent in real-world temperature data this century. Precise atmospheric temperature measurements compiled by NASA and NOAA satellite instruments show there has been no global warming since late in the 20th century