AIDS scientist charged with fraud

June 25, 2014

I have long held that scientists, like many other professionals, should be subject to a sort of “product liability”, if they employ fraud, engage in some other misconduct or in some way fail to meet the standards to be reasonably expected.

If a scientist is to be considered “responsible” for his work then this must be mirrored by a corresponding “liability”. In my experience a lack of liability is always accompanied by the absence of responsibility.

The product that researchers and scientists produce is publications – mainly as papers published in scientific journals and as books. Scientific misconduct (whether plagiarism or faking data or inventing data or cherry picking data) leads occasionally to dismissals (but not always) and generally very little else. It seems to me that the concept of tort or “product liability” should be applicable to the work of scientists and researchers where their work is the result of faking data, fraud or other misconduct since it would be work that “had not been done in good faith”. Tort would apply because the ramifications of their misconduct would extend far beyond their employment contracts with their employers.

Now an AIDS scientist who faked his data is being charged with criminal offences.

Responding to a major case of research misconduct, federal prosecutors have taken the rare step of filing charges against a scientist after he admitted falsifying data that led to millions in grants and hopes of a breakthrough in AIDS vaccine research.

Investigators say former Iowa State University laboratory manager Dong-Pyou Han has confessed to spiking samples of rabbit blood with human antibodies to make an experimental HIV vaccine appear to have great promise. After years of work and millions in National Institutes of Health grants, another laboratory uncovered irregularities that suggested the results – once hailed as groundbreaking – were bogus. 

Han was indicted last week on four counts of making false statements, each of which carries up to five years in prison. He was set to be arraigned Tuesday in Des Moines, but he didn’t show up due to an apparent paperwork mix-up. A prosecutor said Han will be given another chance to appear next week. …….

Experts said the fraud was extraordinary and that charges are rarely brought in such cases. The National Institutes of Health said it’s reviewing what impact the case has had on the research it funds.

…… Oransky, a journalist who also has a medical degree, said there have been only a handful of similar prosecutions in the last 30 years.

He said Han’s case was “particularly brazen” and noted that charges are rarely brought because the U.S. Office of Research Integrity, which investigates misconduct, doesn’t have prosecution authority, and most cases involve smaller amounts of money. …… 

According to the indictment, Han’s misconduct caused colleagues to make false statements in a federal grant application and progress reports to NIH. The NIH paid out $5 million under that grant as of earlier this month. Iowa State has agreed to pay back NIH nearly $500,000 for the cost of Han’s salary.

Han’s misconduct dates to when he worked at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland under Michael Cho, who was leading a team testing an experimental HIV vaccine on rabbits. Starting in 2008, Cho’s team received initial NIH funding for the work. Cho reported soon that his vaccine was causing rabbits to develop antibodies to HIV, which left NIH officials “flabbergasted,” according to a criminal complaint against Han. Cho’s team sent blood samples in 2009 to Duke University researchers, who verified the apparent positive impact on the vaccinated rabbits. The confirmation was seen as “a major breakthrough in HIV/AIDS vaccine research,” according to the complaint.

Iowa State recruited Cho in 2009, and with his team – including Han – he soon received a five-year NIH grant to continue the research. The team kept reporting progress. But in January 2013, a team at Harvard University found the promising results had been achieved with rabbit blood spiked with human antibodies.

An investigation by Iowa State pinpointed Han, after he was caught sending more spiked samples to Duke University. In a Sept. 30, 2013 confession letter, Han said he started the fraud in 2009 “because he wanted (results) to look better” and that he acted alone.

Individual researchers are unlikely to have the means to make restitution for all the financial waste they may have caused by their misconduct. Universities and Institutions have  some possibility of being forced to repay grants obtained by fraud but are rarely asked to do so. Careers of other researchers could also have been compromised.

It should still be possible for someone damaged by scientific misconduct to make a civil case for damages even if criminal charges are not brought.  But what that needs is that the output be considered “product” and that the scientist and his institution have then some “product liability”. That implies a duty of good faith and of application of some reasonable level of competence. Misconduct and even gross negligence on the part of the institution or the scientist could then give rise to a claim for damages. Even the journals, their editors and reviewers  ought to have some responsibility and potential liability.

If every published paper carried some product liability, the rush to publish nonsense and lies may reduce even if the publications industry would not be pleased. But it would improve the quality of publications no end.

Retraction Watch covers the story and has a discussion about the criminalisation of scientific fraud.

Suarez – 3 bites and time to pull his teeth

June 25, 2014

A dog which bit 3 times would most likely be put down.

After having attacked Branislav Ivanovic and Otman Bakkal in the past, Luis Suarez was at it again at yesterdays World Cup match between Uruguay and Italy. This time he managed to sink his teeth into Giorgio Chiellini’s shoulder.

Time to put him down. Or only be allowed to play after a long suspension provided he has all his teeth pulled and plays with an empty mouth.

Luis Suarez - 3 bites and out

Luis Suarez – 3 bites and out

Shifting maps of Europe over 200 years from 1815 – 2014

June 23, 2014

On 28th June it will be 100 years since the assassination in Sarajevo of Franz Ferdinand, heir to throne of the Austro-Hungarian Empire  and the onset of World War 1. The maps of Europe changed drastically before and after the War from 1914 to 1920 and this is a an excellent yet simple presentation of the changes.

Before and after WW1

Before and after WW1

Before and after WW1

But it is worth noting that squabbling in Europe was going on long before WW1 and still continues today with the Balkans having recently redrawn their maps. And maps will continue changing, as in the Crimea and now perhaps also with Scotland breaking away from the United Kingdom.

But it is not so long ago that the map of Europe looked completely different. After Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo in 1815 the Congress of Vienna redrew the map of Europe.

 map by thelessonlocker

europe after vienna 1815

europe after vienna 1815

And now, 200 years later the map of Europe is still changing. This map by Omniatlas is up to date as of March 2014.

Omniatlas map of Europe 2014

Omniatlas map of Europe 2014

What will the next 100 years bring?

A drunk for President of the EU Commission?

June 22, 2014

If it was only the Daily Mail it would have to treated with a certain amount of skepticism and great caution for journalistic licence. But in fact the original article about the drunken behaviour of Jean-Claude Juncker who is expected (with the support of Merkel and Hollande but against the wishes of Cameron) to become the next President of the EU Commission comes from Der Spiegel.

And Der Spiegel is nothing if not staid and politically correct. So when the usually circumspect magazine states that Juncker’s normal state is one of being inebriated and where he is a problem “not with alcohol but only without alcohol” then it gives a lot more credibility to the extravagant claims in the Daily Mail.

I suppose the EU and the EC have both sunk so low that having a drunk as President cannot bring them further into disrepute.

Der Spiegel: Achtung, Alkoholkontrolle!

The more often Juncker’s name is mentioned, the more the questions which arise as to whether he would be robust enough for the office of President. Long-time companions report a string of  human weaknesses almost unknown to the general public.   .. Juncker threatens to be something of a political alcohol-test. 

… The journalist Pascal Steinwachs wrote in “Lëtzebuerger Journal,” mischievous tongues said, Juncker was actually not a problem with alcohol, only without...”

Daily Mail: ‘A drunk who has cognac for breakfast’

……. a Mail on Sunday investigation uncovered a number of fresh reports about his drinking:

  • A senior diplomatic source told this newspaper: ‘Mr Juncker reportedly has cognac for breakfast’.
  • He was allegedly ‘blind drunk’, acted in a ‘vulgar’ way and repeatedly used the f-word in a meeting.
  • A respected German news journal claimed he had ‘drunk too much for years’ in an article headlined Achtung, Alkoholkontrolle! (Attention. Breathalyser Test!).
  • A top Dutch politician called him a ‘stubborn drinker’, forcing Mr Juncker to issue an angry denial.

An EU envoy told The Mail on Sunday: ‘Juncker and his boozing is the worst-kept secret in Brussels. He is politically and personally unsuited to run the EU.’ 

His supporters, however, claim he is the victim of a dirty-tricks campaign. One said: ‘He has a proven track record in taking tough decisions.’

I like my occasional cognac as well. But cognac for breakfast does seem a bit much.

Hollande and his mistresses and Merkel and her drunks. Add to that a drunken EC President who is not elected but instated by consensus and it makes a wonderful advertisement of European democracy at its best!

 

MH370: Further indications of a deliberate event to prevent technology reaching Beijing

June 22, 2014

It has now been over 3 months since MH370 vanished without trace.

My theory from two months ago about the disappearance was that this was a deliberate, probably state-sponsored, very well executed and successful  action to prevent certain technology, some sensitive hardware and some particular technical people from reaching Beijing.

There were 20 Chinese software experts on board. They had been working for Freescale Technology in Texas on technology which could convert ordinary aircraft into “stealth” aircraft. Patents had been applied for but have not yet been granted. MH 370 was carrying a “large” package as a Chinese diplomatic package and was therefore not subject to any search or security procedures. The speculative, uncorroborated but plausible and most parsimonious explanation becomes:

  1. The Chinese software engineers “stole” technology on behalf of the Chinese government from Freescale.
  2. Freescale was slow in picking up the theft and alerting the authorities.
  3. US intelligence and security agencies were unable to prevent the engineers and their package from reaching Malaysia.
  4. They were also unable to prevent the engineers boarding MH370 bound for Beijing or the precious cargo from being loaded as diplomatic cargo.
  5. The operational arm of a US Security Agency took the decision – without recourse to their political masters – to prevent the engineers and their cargo from reaching Beijing, at any cost.
  6. ………. 

It is now reported in this “NextNews” video that the patent in question was granted 4 days after the flight disappeared!! The patent was in the names of 4 Chinese engineers and their employer Freescale which happens to be owned by Rothschild. All the 4 inventors of record were on board and with their deaths all the patent rights now revert to the company. While this report implies a financial motive, I don’t think that holds. In corporate patents all the exploitation rights are usually with the corporate entity and not with the individual inventors. The individual inventors may have had some little share in any eventual revenues but these would have been (relatively) quite small. What was actually achieved was that none of the inventors or their cargo or the knowledge in their heads reached Beijing. And that remains the most likely motive. The timing of the granting of the patent – 4 days later – when there could no longer be any question of ownership is also suggestive.

It still seems to me that the most parsimonious explanation for the vanishing is that somebody wanted to prevent the Freescale engineers and their diplomatically protected cargo  from reaching Beijing. They succeeded completely and also in obliterating all traces of their actions. All the other deaths were merely collateral damage.

 h/t: Nessan

Climate and the butterfly in Brazil

June 22, 2014

You may think that the weather outside your window is a consequence of the prevailing climate. But that would be the cart before the horse. Without weather there is no climate.

Climate is to weather as evolution is to reproduction.

Evolution is just a label given to the result of many, many individual survival and reproduction events. Evolution is not a “force” which directs who will survive and who will not or which individuals will reproduce and who will not. Evolution is then the name we give to the resultant changes in the genetic make-up of species as individuals of that species survive and reproduce (or fail to reproduce where  the species goes extinct). The survival and reproduction of individuals changes as the environment they live in changes. Evolution is thus the global, net result of the millions of successful, local, individual matings, and of the many more millions of failures to reproduce. Natural selection is merely a record of those that manged to survive and reproduce and thereby “deselected” all the failures. Without environmental change first causing a change in which individuals survive and then reproduce, there can be no evolutionary change (except due to random mutations).  Similarly there is no great driving force called climate which determines the weather outside your window. Climate is the label we give to the summation of all the local weathers in a region or around the globe as being the climate of that region or of the world. Just as resulting evolution and evolutionary change is impacted by the local survival or failure of a species, so is resulting climate impacted by weather and by changes to local weather patterns. Climate is a calculated result, an average, of  myriads of local weather events

Without reproduction and consequent genetic change there is nothing to be called evolution. There is no evolutionary change if a species is genetically static – if it’s surroundings and its growth are unchanged.  Similarly there is no climate change if local weather patterns remain static. And without individual events of local weather there can be no average to be called climate.

The weather we each experience locally outside our windows covers a very wide range. Within a few minutes, on any day of the year we can experience temperature changes of  5 – 10ºC as clouds appear or it starts blowing or if it rains or if it snows. Winds can vary from virtually still upto over 100km/h in the midst of a storm. Every single day we see a change of around 10ºC between day and night. Over a period of a week it would not be unusual to have a temperature change of even 20ºC. Over a year a temperature variation of 60ºC (+35ºC on the warmest day to – 25ºC on the coldest) could be expected at my latitude.

Politically correct “climate science” today takes it for granted that any unpleasant warming of the earth, or uncomfortable cooling of the earth, or increased frequency of storms, or copious amounts of rainfall and any resulting flood, or no rainfall and any resulting drought, or any unduly severe hurricanes is – by virtue of its unpleasantness – due to man-made climate change. And man’s evil influence is all manifested by the emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion and the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide!

But in the meantime it is mid-summers day and a cloud has passed over the sun. And when the cloud has passed I will feel a lot warmer than by increasing the carbon dioxide around me!!!!

In the 1960’s Edward Lorenz developed his chaos theory and in 1972 gave his famous talk questioning if the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil could set off a tornado in Texas. (Lorenz Butterfly 1972).

Lorenz 1972

Lorenz 1972

Without reproduction there is no evolution and without local weather there is no climate.

Blaming fossil fuel combustion for climate change is like blaming one poor butterfly in Brazil and ignoring every other bird and insect flapping its wings.

 

Bouygues’ need for cash will make or break GE’s bid for Alstom assets

June 21, 2014

As I suspected it seems to be the share price at which Bouygues are prepared to divest their shareholding in Alstom which will determine whether GE will acquire Alstom’s energy assets or whether the rival bid from Siemens/MHI will succeed. It seems that if a share price of less than €30 per Alstom share is accepted by Bouygues then GE may win the deal with the governments backing. IF they hold out for €32 or more then it may be Siemens/MHI who get the nod.

It is a hectic weekend for Alstom, the French government and Bouygues. The French government’s acquisition of 20% of Alstom’s shares is integral to their backing of GE’s bid over the rival bid from Siemens/MHI.

It is Bouygues need to exit from their 29% shareholding in Alstom and their need for cash which is probably the main driver for Alstom’s divestment. For Bouygues the book value of their holding of some 89 million shares is at about a value of  €33 per share whereas the market price is currently only around €28-29. Clearly the French government would prefer to just pay market price but Bouygues could well argue that their shareholding was acquired at the behest of the French government in the first place. Without their “white knight” intervention Alstom would have gone to the wall.

If Bouygues holds out for close to book value and the French government balks at the price then the Siemens /MHI offer may gain traction – especially if it offers Bouygues not only a higher price but also a clean exit from their entire shareholding.

ReutersTalks on an industrial tie-up between Alstom and General Electric entered a critical phase on Saturday, as the French government wrangled with Alstom shareholder Bouygues over a key plank of the transaction. Sources close to the negotiations said talks were continuing over the price at which the French state would acquire 20 percent of Alstom from Bouygues – a condition for government approval of Alstom’s alliance with GE in preference to a rival Siemens-Mitsubishi offer. ……

French President Francois Hollande applied more pressure to Bouygues, telling reporters in Paris he expected rapid progress in the stake purchase talks. “This is a major condition for the government’s acceptance of the alliance,” Hollande told reporters in Paris. “That’s why I believe we will make progress by the end of the day.” Without an acceptable deal on the Bouygues stake, he added, “it would be necessary to reconsider the alliance as it has just been announced”. …….

……  Economy Minister Arnaud Montebourg finally announced state backing on Friday for a GE-Alstom deal valuing Alstom’s energy business at 12.35 billion euros ($16.77 billion). But the official green light remains subject to strict conditions agreed with GE as well as the government’s successful purchase of a 20 percent stake from Paris-based Bouyues.

Montebourg said the French state was prepared to pay only market price for the Alstom shares, which closed at 28 euros on Friday – about 20 percent short of their accounting value to Bouygues.

My guess is that if Bouygues needs around €2.8 billion and if they hold out for more than €32 per share the GE deal may fail and the scales may tip in favour of the Siemens/MHI bid.

A perception of collective nouns

June 21, 2014

A quest of scientists

A babble of psychologists

A gaggle of poets

A rabble of (……….) – according to personal preference authors/actors/priests/…….

A fusion of physicists

A smell of chemists

A bushel of metallurgists

A parliament of speakers

An invasion of neocons

A cohort of politicians

A harem of coalition partners

A mamillion of mathematicians

A brothel of journalists

A twitter of modistes

A facebook of friends

A hack of spies

A matrix of nerds

A pride of gay people

A tick of lawyers

A bill of consultants

A cancer of bureaucrats

Auction for Alstom develops as GE and Siemens/MHI up their bids

June 20, 2014

UPDATE!

The auction could be over. It looks like the French government is backing GE’s offer and will itself take a 20% stake in Alstom.

France to Back G.E.’s Bid for Alstom Assets

===============================================

Once upon a time I was recruited by ASEA in Sweden. Then ASEA merged with BBC and through no action on my part I became an employee of ABB. Some years later ABB sold all its Power Generation business to Alstom (along with me) and – once again without any action on my part – I became an employee of Alstom. In due course I retired but one of my last actions was to sell off part of Alstom’s industrial power generation business to Siemens as part of a global divestment. Whereupon I was recruited by Siemens in Germany to help with growing the business just acquired from Alstom. And then I finally did “retire” – insofar as “retirement” means that I can now reject engagements which do not interest me.

So the current battle going on between GE on the one hand and Siemens/MHI on the other to acquire all of Alstom’s power generation business is of particular interest. The Alstom Board which had -in principle – accepted GE’s offer, is now faced with evaluating two rival bids. During this week both have improved their bids.

Alstom’s Board will convene no later than June 23 to review the bids.

My personal view is that that the Alstom need for divestment is driven not only by their debt but – perhaps more importantly – by the desire of their largest shareholder to exit. Bouygues owns 29% of Alstom and came in – at the behest of the French Government – when Alstom were in dire straits. But now Boygues themselves are in some trouble and need to exit and they need to convert their 29% to as much cash as possible. With Alstom paying no dividend, Bouygues’ 29% holding represents about €2.5 billion locked up as a non performing asset. So in my view the critical points for Alstom in selecting a buyer will be

  1. ensuring that whatever is left of Alstom after the divestment is more than merely viable, and
  2. that Bouygues gets the maximum cash return for its 29% in a “clean” and lucrative exit.

In any event a good, old fashioned, “bidding war” between GE and Siemens/MHI is probably a good thing for all Alstom shareholders – including Bouygues. I recall – during my time with Alstom – when Alstom was forced to sell its profitable industrial power generation business. The final sale price ended up about 48% higher than Alstom’s internally evaluated value – just because an auction did develop between Siemens and Hitachi. And the auction did not just happen – it took much time and effort to promote.

Whether the Alstom Board can engineer a “good” auction to the benefit of the remaining Alstom train business and their shareholders remains to be seen.

Bloomberg: 

Immelt is in Paris to present new details of GE’s $17 billion plan to officials including Economy Minister Arnaud Montebourg, according to GE. Negotiators for the U.S. manufacturer continue to refine specifics ahead of a June 23 deadline, including the structure of Alstom’s renewable energy, grid and transport businesses, the company said.

Seven weeks after unveiling its proposal for Alstom’s energy operations, GE confronts a counterbid by Siemens that seeks to carve up Alstom together with Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. (7011) and Hitachi Ltd. (6501) The Siemens proposal values the energy assets at 14.2 billion euros ($19.3 billion).

Immelt’s return to Paris underscores the stakes in a deal that would give Fairfield, Connecticut-based GE control of Alstom’s technology for electricity transmission and power-plant maintenance as Europe’s economy starts to recover. The acquisition would be GE’s biggest ever and bolster Immelt’s push to return the company to its industrial roots.

Reuters:

Siemens and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) raised their offer for Alstom’s energy businesses to compete with a revised bid by U.S. rival General Electric.

Siemens-MHI and GE have been facing off in a battle for control of Alstom’s power businesses that has seen the Socialist government give itself powers to block any deal in the name of protecting local jobs and influence over a strategic sector. 

Under their amended offer, Siemens-MHI would pay 8.2 billion euros ($11.2 billion) in cash rather than 7 billion and value Alstom’s power businesses at 14.6 billion euros, 400 million more than previously and still well above GE’s 12.4 billion.

……. The improved Siemens-MHI proposal still foresees Siemens buying Alstom’s gas turbine business. But MHI is now offering to buy a 40 percent stake in the combined steam, grid and hydro business of Alstom and bundle them in a holding company. It previously planned to create three joint ventures by acquiring 40 percent of the steam business, 20 percent of grid and 20 percent of hydro. The change will increase MHI’s share of the cash payment to 3.9 billion euros from 3.1 billion. Siemens’s contribution rises to 4.3 billion euros from 3.9 billion, with the company saying the increase was based on “a subsequent, more advanced opportunity/risk analyses”.

In addition, Siemens is offering to immediately enter into a joint venture for mobility management, including signalling, with Alstom.

Noted in passing on Midsummer’s eve

June 20, 2014

Midsummer’s Eve in Sweden and we have a bright sunny day (so far) but rather cool (with a high of 16ºC expected).

Midsummer's Eve 2014

View from my kitchen window – Midsummer’s Eve 2014

The forecast is for sun in the south and some snow in the north. Snow at midsummer is unusual but not at all unknown in the north of Sweden.  No sign of either global warming or of an impending ice age.

Emotional contagion by Facebook could be a new disease. A case of the medium creating the new disease! Heightened emotions can apparently be transmitted by Facebook. The researchers find that “emotional states can be transferred to others via emotional contagion, leading people to experience the same emotions without their awareness”. And emotional contagion is what turns a crowd into a mob. And as this work from MIT shows, “Good people can do bad things. Belonging to a group makes people more likely to harm others outside the group.”

The wealth of bones found at the Sima de los Huesos site (Atapuerca, Spain)  are revealing more about the predecessors of Neanderthals. A new paper now suggests that “the hominin-bearing layer could be reassigned to a period around 430,000 years ago. The sample shows a consistent morphological pattern with derived Neandertal features present in the face and anterior vault, many of which are related to the masticatory apparatus. This suggests that facial modification was the first step in the evolution of the Neandertal lineage… “. Initially these fossils were dated to around 600,000 years ago and thought to be related to homo heidelbergensis. But it is now believed that these fossils are younger, from the direct lineage of Neanderthals and a link to homo antecessor who lived in Europe around one million years ago.

Poor Ed Miliband. As if his failings were not enough, he has now taken to a new “owlish” policy for free owls for everybody. This is giving photo-shoppers new opportunities but is creating panic among the Uk’s mouse population.

Saudi Arabia has warned the US and the UK not to interfere in Iraq and oppose the largely Saudi funded ISIS. (Saudi Arabian funds have supported and are still supporting more terrorists than almost any other country. Saudi funds are also well represented in supporting some of the radical preachers around the world). “Hands-off Obama” has obliged by holding off with any air strikes and restricting US involvement to the supply of 300 advisors. But be assured that he is asking very “hard questions”!!

Diagram illustrating water's phases

The mysteries of water are still being unravelled. This time it is the low temperature properties of water. Between supercooled water and “glassy” water, there is a region of great mystery (a “no-mans” land). Researchers have now suceeded in making some measurements  at -46ºC.

Just a few days ago the vast amounts of water deep in the earths mantle – some 600 km below the earth’s surface – were reported. Here the water is at high temperatures (over 1000ºC) and very high pressures as hydroxyls trapped in the mineral ringwoodite. “There is something very special about the crystal structure of ringwoodite that allows it to attract hydrogen and trap water. This mineral can contain a lot of water under conditions of the deep mantle.”