Boeing 787 Dreamliner still not out of the woods

March 9, 2014

The Dreamliner woes continue with cracks in the wings found during manufacture and another emergency landing for a JAL Dreamliner. And in the meantime Norwegian Airlines is in rough seas as a consequence of their Dreamliner problems but have still ordered another four aircraft. Their eggs are all in the Dreamliner basket now but Boeing must have provided a great many sweeteners. The Dreamliners are proving not to be as fuel efficient as it was claimed they would be when they were being sold. Air India which has taken delivery of 13 Dreamliners and has a total of 27 on order is also reported to be seeking compensation from Boeing.

JAL Dreamliner makes emergency landing in Honolulu

Japan Airlines said Sunday its Dreamliner flight from Tokyo to San Francisco made an emergency landing in Honolulu, reportedly due to a possible problem with its hydraulic system.

The pilot of flight JL002, carrying 171 passengers and crew, decided to divert to Hawaii after a warning message about falling pressure of lubricant oil in its right engine, according to Japanese national broadcaster NHK.

Boeing Has a New 787 Dreamliner Headache With Wing Cracks

Boeing’s 787 is the airplane program that keeps on giving—problems. The company will inspect about 40 airplanes and delay some 787 deliveries after Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which makes the plane’s carbon fiber wing, discovered small cracks in newly built wings following a change in its manufacturing process, Boeing said Friday.

The cracked area is very small and will require repairs that will take a week or two per airplane, Boeing spokesman Marc Birtel said. “We are confident that the condition does not exist in the in-service fleet,” the company said in an e-mailed statement. “We understand the issue, what must be done to correct it, and are completing inspections of potentially affected airplanes.”

Mitsubishi Heavy crafts the wings in Nagoya, Japan, and Boeing flies them to its 787 assembly plants in Everett, Wash., and North Charleston, S.C. About 17 of the 787s being inspected are fully completed, and seven have been undergoing predelivery flight tests, according to the Wall Street Journal, which first reported news of the cracks.

Profits down after Dreamliner dramas

Norwegian Air reported a profit in 2013 for the seventh year running on Thursday, but takings were significantly down on previous years. Major problems setting up its new long-haul routes with trouble-plagued Boeing 787 Dreamliners led to a huge amount of customer complaints, and the budget carrier angered unions and other airlines over pay conditions and its use of cheaper Asian crews. Norwegian reported its pre-tax profits for 2013 were NOK 437 million (USD 71.5 million), down from NOK 623 million in 2012. The airline lost NOK 283 million in the fourth quarter.

Norwegian orders four more Dreamliners and reports Q4 losses

Norwegian Air Shuttle announced on Thursday the lease of four more Boeing 787 Dreamliner aircraft, despite a series of technical hitches with the planes. The contract, which brings Norwegian’s planned Dreamliner fleet to 14, was signed with the US aircraft leasing company International Lease Finance Corporation (ILFC) but no financial details were released.

Boeing Says Air India Unhappy With 787 Dreamliner’s Performance

Boeing Co. said Air India Ltd. is dissatisfied with the performance of its 787 Dreamliner, joining other carriers including Norwegian Air Shuttle ASA in slamming the manufacturer for repeated faults on its marquee jet. “Yes, they are not happy with the reliability portion, neither are we,” Dinesh Keskar, a senior vice president at the Chicago-based planemaker, said in an interview at the Singapore Air Show today. “Over the last few months, we understood which are the components that were causing issues, which software needs to be upgraded.”

…. Air India diverted one of its 787s to Kuala Lumpur this month as a precaution after a software fault on a flight to New Delhi from Melbourne. Boeing is upgrading software and changing some components on Air India 787s whenever the planes can be taken out of service, Keskar said, adding that a 13th Dreamliner will be delivered to the carrier this month. …… Air India, which has ordered 27 Dreamliners, will seek compensation from Boeing after the carrier found that its 787s aren’t as fuel efficient as the planemaker had claimed while selling them ……. Fuel efficiency of the Dreamliner is improving after earlier models didn’t “quite make the mark” on this count, Keskar said.

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Muddled EU and an indecisive US help Russia emerge from the Cold War doldrums

March 9, 2014

The Soviet Union was dissolved 23 years ago. The experiment of exporting and imposing the Russian vision of socialism on 14 other countries had collapsed in spectacular fashion. It was a resounding victory for Ronald Reagan, Rambo, Capitalism, Democracy and “Western” values – in that order. The 15 post Soviet countries were then Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. Countries within their influence but not part of the Soviet Union broke free and looked to find a new place in the growing and expansionist European Union. Czechoslavakia split. Yugoslavia fractured into many pieces. And Europe picked up the pieces. On the back of their economic problems and the dissolution of their Empire, Russia had no diplomatic clout left to speak of. They did inherit the Soviet seat on the Security Council along with its veto and that kept them at the big table if rather ineffective.

But all that is beginning to change. There is a long way to go but with its wealth of resources the Russian economy is beginning to recover. There is a resurgence of Russian diplomacy. Russian diplomats are beginning to have opinions on all matters of substance. They are aided and abeted by a muddled and meddlesome EU together with an indecisive and risk-averse President in the US.

In foreign as with economic policy the EU is a place of very many voices. Some members are looking to create a successor to the Holy Roman Empire with a Holy European Empire. Others are looking to create the United States of Europe. Some want in for the benefits but want out of the costs. But rather than being a place for the dissemination of best practices it has become a hodge-podge where the lowest common denominator applies. They claim to share the same “values” of equality and freedom but none of them like dirty gypsies from Romania. The European Parliament and the European commission add layers of fairly useless politicians and bureaucrats. If only there had been a rule that every sinecure created at the European level would have been accompanied by a reduction at a country level! Radicalised youth in the EU now provide cannon fodder for many conflicts around the world. On all possible sides. The UK and France provide psychopathic young muslims to conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa. French and German and Swedish skinheads travel to the Ukraine to support the neo-nazi Right Sector.

With so many countries in the EU it is not too surprising that they get confused. A referendum in the Crimea is illegal but a referendum in Scotland is OK. They have been fooled into supporting miltant islamists in Syria and have handed the opposition into the control of Al Qaida. They have tried to meddle in the Ukraine and only succeeded in building up the neo-nazi Right Sector and in provoking Russia to enter the Crimea ostensibly to support the Russian origin population. One Swedish politician today suggested implementing a fast track entry for the Ukraine into the EU “as a signal to the Russians”. Little people trying to be politicians on the world stage. With 28 member states and 8 more in the wings, with a full range of political opinions in each country, it is hardly surprising that what emerges as policy, from the attempt to be balanced, borders on idiocy. Meanwhile the US is tired of its expensive adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan which have achieved very little. President Obama is looking to disengage wherever he can. To take on new risk is anathema. In Syria, Obama kept re-drawing red lines, and kept retreating behind them. That proxy war is being won by the Assad regime supported by Russia. The US and the EU no longer know who they support – or should support –  in Syria.

Syria and the Ukraine are just examples. A confused EU together with an indecisive US are providing the Russians with opportunities to test their diplomatic skills and to test the resolve of the EU and the US.

And judging by the results so far, neither the US nor the EU has a sticking point. There is not a leader in sight.

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Mystery surrounding Malaysian MH370 deepens with four passengers travelling on stolen European passports

March 9, 2014

I find aircraft accidents particularly disturbing – not just because I travel quite often – but mainly because of the suddenness and the helplessness of the many on board. Whatever the explanation 239 people have lost their lives.

I thought that suicide bombers generally operated singly. So while the news that at least four MH370 passengers were travelling on stolen European identities brings foul play up the list of possibilities, it seems unlikely that four suicide bombers would act in concert. In any event the lack of any contact before the disappearance  suggests a sudden, catastrophic airframe failure or a massive – perhaps malicious – explosion. Oil slicks suggest the South China Sea but there is no trace of wreckage. Military radar indicates that the aircraft may have started to turn back

The mystery however is deepening.

  • The lack of contact suggests something very sudden
  • A bomb should have provided a lot of floating wreckage.
  • Four “bad guys” acting in concert would be more suggestive of an attempted  hijacking
  • A turn-back should have allowed time for contact.
  • Aircraft breakup in the air should also have provided a lot of wreckage.

It may not be completely irrelevant that in August 2012 this particular aircraft was involved in a collision with the tail of a China Eastern Airline A340 plane at Pudong International Airport in Shanghai, China and suffered a damaged wing.

MH370 collision 2012 photo AP

MH370 collision 2012 photo AP

One theory is that an airframe failure could have caused the aircraft to suddenly fracture into two large pieces – both of which were large enough to plunge into the sea and sink without leaving much surface wreckage?

The Guardian: …… two Europeans listed on the passenger manifest – an Italian, Luigi Maraldi and an Austrian, Christian Kozel – had not been on the flight and were safe and well. Maraldi had his passport stolen in Thailand last year and Kozel’s was stolen in the region two years ago. The flight was a codeshare with China Southern and the two people named as Maraldi and Kozel on the list booked together via the Chinese airline, Chinese media reported.

The company said it had CCTV footage of the two people who checked in as Maraldi and Kozel.

Malaysian Insider: Authorities have yet to confirm the identities of two more European passengers on flight MH370, adding to two others using stolen passports in the Malaysia Airlines plane which vanished over the Malaysia-Vietnam maritime border yesterday. The Malaysian Insider understands that all four had bought their flight tickets from China Southern Airlines, the Malaysia Airlines codeshare partner for the Kuala Lumpur-Beijing route.

“The background checks with the embassies are being done but these two cannot be confirmed,” a source told The Malaysian Insider, adding that both were from the same country.

MH370-Malaysia_Airlines-mas-last-location-graphics-080314-kamarul_540_341_100

MH370-Malaysia_Airlines-mas-last-location-graphics-080314-kamarul husain Malaysian Insider

Malaysian Insider: Malaysia Airlines said that the plane took off at 12.41am Malaysian time and that it disappeared from air traffic control radar in Subang at 2.40am.

The timeline seemed to suggest that the plane stayed in the air for two hours – long enough to fly not only across the Gulf of Thailand but also far north across Vietnam.

But Fredrik Lindahl, the chief executive of Flightradar24, an online aircraft tracking service, had said that the last radar contact had been at 1.19am, less than 40 minutes after the flight began.
The authorities said yesterday that the last conversation between the flight crew and air traffic control in Malaysia had been about 1.30am. – March 9, 2014.

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Chinese corporate bonds no longer have a government backstop as solar cell firm defaults

March 7, 2014

Overseas investors have so far assumed that Chinese corporations would be bailed out by banks and the government if there was any danger of them defaulting. That assumption has now gone up in smoke as the Chinese Government – probably intentionally and as a signal – has allowed Chaori Solar to default. Chinese corporate bonds are now going to get a lot less attractive.

The strange fact about solar subsidies – around the world – is that the equipment manufacturers and the consumers have not benefited. Only plant developers have effectively walked away with the subsidies and they are usually very good at milking subsidies. As subsidies dry up it makes more sense for them to just walk-away. Solar (and wind) equipment manufacturers ramped up their production capabilities – sometimes by very expensive acquisitions – and are now in dire straits as subsidy reductions has caused the market to dive.

Bloomberg:Chaori Can’t Make Payment in China’s First Onshore Default

A Chinese solar-cell maker failed to pay full interest on its bonds, leading to the country’s first onshore default and signaling the government will back off its practice of bailing out companies with bad debt.

Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology Co. (002506) is trying to sell some of its overseas plants to raise money to repay the debt, Vice President Liu Tielong said in an interview today at the company’s Shanghai headquarters. The company said March 4 it will only be able to pay 4 million yuan ($653,990) of an 89.8 million yuan coupon due today.

The BBC warns:

Up until now, the Chinese government and state-owned banks have helped bail out or provide last-minute loans to Chinese firms in trouble. That has led many investors to park their funds in the corporate bonds of many Chinese firms, on the belief that the government would help ensure that these firms could continue to repay their debts.

However, a significant portion of this debt is set to mature in 2014 – with more than $1.5 trillion of corporate bonds outstanding at the end of January. …… That is why the Chinese government may be making a strategic decision to let some firms fail – particularly those, like Chaori, that may not have a huge knock-on effect in the market.

China’s solar industry has been suffering from an overcapacity problem for some time, as cheap financing and local government support led to a glut of firms entering the industry. That has led to a sharp fall in price, and the Chinese government has since hinted that it supports consolidation in the industry. ……… 

Yet while some see the default as a good thing for China’s corporate bond market, others worry it could be a sign of a wave of defaults to come. Bank of America analysts wrote in a recent note that the default could be “China’s Bear Stearns moment”. “In the US, it took about a year to reach the Lehman stage when the market panicked and the shadow banking sector froze,” they wrote. “We assess that it may take less time in China, as the market here is less transparent.”

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Indian General Election 2014 – by the numbers!

March 7, 2014

By the numbers, GE 2014 could be the greatest show on earth!

The logistics are frightening. The Election Commission of India’s arrangements for securing a “free and fair” election are quite comprehensive and more than a little daunting.

Press Note GE-2014_05032014

About 11 million people will be involved under the authority of the Election Commission of India as election officials or in providing security. Almost 1 million polling stations, over 800 million voters, over 1,400 political parties and more than 4,000 candidates are expected. The administrative cost for holding the election is expected to be about $650 million.

It is worth noting that other than at village level China does not even attempt any kind of “free” elections. Elected leaders are always subject to the over-riding authority of the secretary of the appropriate level of the strictly hierarchical Communist Party of China.

  1. 543 Lok Sabha constituencies will go to the polls.
  2. Voting will begin on April 7th and continue on nine separate dates until May 12th.  Counting will take place on 16.05.2014 (Friday) and is expected to be completed on the same day.
  3. More than 1,400 political parties are involved. There are 6 recognised and registered National parties, 54 recognised and registered State parties and 1,392 registered but “unrecognised” parties.
  4. The total electorate in the country is approximately 814.5 million compared to 713 million in 2009. This marks an increase of more than 100 million electors.
  5. There has been a remarkable increase in the enrollment of electors in the age group of 18 to 19 years. Over 23 million electors are in this age group. Electors in the age group of 18 to 19 years now constitute 2.88% of total electors, against 0.75% in 2009. 
  6. Transgender persons with gender written as “Others” have been in the electoral rolls since 2012. The number of electors enrolled as “Others” gender is 28,314.
  7. Parliament amended the Representation of the People Act, 1950, allowing enrollment of Indian citizens living overseas as electors. 11,844 overseas electors have been enrolled in the current electoral rolls.
  8. There are 1,328,621 service electors in the electoral rolls (see note below).

  9. There will be approximately 930,000 Polling Stations in the country, as compared to 830,866 Polling Stations set up during Lok Sabha election, 2009. This marks an increase of nearly 11.9 percent Polling Stations. 

  10. Electronic Voting Machines will be used. There are 1,468,430 Control Units (CUs) and 1,495,430 Ballot Units (BUs) available in the country. Manufacturers have been asked to manufacture and supply 251,650 Control Units and 382,876 Ballot Units, which are expected to be received by 31st 

    March, 2014. With this, the country will have 1,720,080 Control Units and 1,878,306 Ballot Units. 

  11. The Supreme Court has directed that there should be a “None of the Above” 

    (NOTA) option on the ballot papers and a special button has been provided for this on the voting machines.

  12. All the candidates will be required to file an affidavit along with 

    their nomination papers. This affidavit will include information on the criminal antecedents of the candidate, if any, assets (including the movable, immovable 

    properties and investments even in foreign countries, of the candidate, his/ her spouse and dependents), liabilities of the candidate, his/ her spouse and 

    dependents and his/ her educational qualifications. 

  13. The maximum limit of election expenses for a Lok Sabha Constituency is Rs.70.00 lakh per candidate for all States except Arunachal Pradesh, Goa and Sikkim. For these three States it is Rs.54.00 lakh per 

    candidate. For the Union Territories, the maximum limit is Rs.70 lakh per candidate for NCT of Delhi and Rs.54.00 lakh per candidate for other UTs. For the Assembly Constituencies, the maximum limit is Rs.28.00 lakh per candidate for the bigger States and NCT of Delhi and Rs.20.00 lakh per candidate in the other States and Union Territory of Puducherry. Accordingly, in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha the limit of expenses for Assembly Constituencies is Rs.28.00 lakh per candidate and in Sikkim it is Rs.20.00 lakh per candidate. (Note Rs 1 lakh = $1,600 approximately).

  14.  Every contesting candidate will maintain and furnish a separate and true account of his/ her election expenditure.

  15. Since the tenure of the Legislative Assemblies of the States of Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Sikkim will expire on 02.06.2014, 07.06.2014 and 21.05.2014 respectively and a new Assembly in Sikkim has to be constituted before 22nd May, 2014 elections will be held for new Legislative Assemblies for these three States, simultaneously with the General Elections to the 16th Lok Sabha. 

Service electors qualify as
(a) Being a member of the armed Forces of the Union; or 
(b) Being a member of a force to which provisions of the Army Act have been made applicable 
(c) Being a member of an Armed Police Force of a State, and serving outside that state; or 
(d) Being a person who is employed under the Government of India, in a post outside India.

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Eugenics by default: Abortion is of greater significance now than infant mortality ever was

March 6, 2014

We determine the demographic future – almost unthinkingly – by the patterns of child-bearing and child-rearing that we practise today. Population and its composition for the next 100 years or so has already been determined. The Chinese population has started declining and will continue to do so till at least 2100. The Indian population will reach its peak around 2050 and will then decline. The “aging” of populations and the increase of longevity has also been fixed. Demographic “robustness” is critically dependent on maintaining the ratio of the “working” population to the “supported” population (the young and the old). The US is maintaining its demographic sustainability by means of immigration in the face of declining fertility rates. Some countries in Europe are doing the same. Many do not since maintaining  some form of “racial purity” is an undercurrent in many societies and fuels the resistance to immigration – even with dangerous declines in fertility rates. Japan is facing an aging crisis as immigration is resisted. The numbers are inexorable.

Fitness to survive after birth is no longer of significance in the survival stakes. All around the world societies see to it that those with disabilities – once born – are protected. The further evolution of humans will now increasingly be the result of

  1. artificial selection for particular genetic traits, and
  2. the deselection of individuals who have been conceived but are not allowed to be born or to survive and reproduce.

It is my contention that we are in fact – directly and indirectly –  exercising an increasing amount of genetic control in the selection and deselection of our offspring. So much so that we already have “eugenics by default” being applied to a significant degree in the children being born today.

The numbers tell the tale.

One of the key measures of the advances of medical science has been the drastic reduction of infant mortality rates (defined here as deaths after birth but before the age of one year). In the 16th and 17th century this was about 30% of all births (an estimate based on a dearth of data). Since 1950 this rate has dropped from about 15% of all births to around 4% today. The variation is still very high with the current rate being as high as 12% in Afghanistan and 11% in Niger but less than 0.2% in Monaco. By 2050, as development in Africa proceeds, this global rate is expected to have dropped to about 2% (20 per 1000 live births).

It is more difficult to define miscarriages. After fertilisation of an egg it seems that perhaps 50 – 70% fail to attach themselves to the uterus wall and these would not even be considered – or even show up – as a pregnancy. I take such “miscarriages” to be failures of conception. Taking attachment to the uterine wall and the establishment of a fetal heartbeat as being a successful conception, around 10% still result in a miscarriage today.

In 2012 about 135 million babies were born (7 billion population and crude birth rate of 19.15 per 1000 of total population). Worldwide induced abortions numbered about 45 million (estimate). One third of all successful conceptions were not allowed to reach birth.

Economist:  It fell precipitously in the 1990s, but recently the rate has not budged, barely dipping from 29 abortions per 1,000 women (aged 15 to 44) in 2003 to 28 abortions per 1,000 women in 2008. Eastern Europe has the highest abortion rate in the world, at 43 per 1,000. The geography of abortions has also shifted. In 2008, 86% of abortions were in the developing world, up from 78% in 1995.

(Note! the number per 1000 women of child bearing age is different to the number per 1000 live births).

The current status then is:

  • Of 1000 successful conceptions (fetal heartbeat established)
  • less than 20 are by IVF
  • 100 are miscarried before birth
  • 330 are aborted before birth
  • 570 live births result
  • 22 do not survive beyond one year
  • 548 survive beyond 12 months
  • 3 do not survive beyond 5 years
  • About 540 – 545 live to child bearing age

Four hundred years ago miscarriage rates (after successful conception) were probably around 20% of live births and infant mortality rates were about 30%, such that only 50% of all successful conceptions led to children surviving up to their first birthdays.

The picture today is not so different. About 55% of all successful conceptions lead to children surviving beyond one year.

Without moralising about abortion – which I am not qualified to do – as far as the numbers are concerned, infant mortality of 400 years ago has effectively been replaced by abortion today. Deselection which took place in the first year after birth has been shifted to the period after conception but before birth. From a genetic perspective and since there is an element of “selection” in every abortion, abortions today are of greater evolutionary and demographic significance than infant mortality ever was.

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The proper exercise of power

March 5, 2014

While Obama and Kerry and Putin all have “power”, I am not sure how expert they are at “the proper exercise of power”. The examples of Syria and now the Ukraine convince me that they – by virtue of their positions – wield power but they are a long way from being practitioners of the “proper” exercise of power. For Managers in the work-place I described “the proper exercise of power” as below and it applies also I think to politicians and leaders and heads of state.

Edmund Burke: “Do the thing and you will have the power. But they that do not the thing – had not the power”.

Consider our appointed manager …….. 

“He does the thing”.

No missing players. No missed actions.

No extra players. No wasted actions.

No misdirection. No collateral damage.

No dissipation of energy.

No cheers. No jeers. No fuss, no “muss”.

No turbulence. No noise! 

Just the music of the proper exercise of power!

(Extracted from Essence of a Manager)

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Why insurance companies love alarmism

March 5, 2014

A fundamental for all insurance companies is that their profits are highest when perceived risk is higher than actual risk. There is a double benefit when the perceived risk can be hyped by alarmism  – whether about hurricanes or earthquakes or epidemics. The greater the alarmist meme, the higher the premiums that can be charged for the perceived risk. It is not surprising therefore that there is no insurance company which will publish a report – any report – about decreasing risks. It’s bad for business. But any alarmist report helps put up premiums for no increased risk. It is why many of them (and Munich Re comes easily to mind) employ many academics to produce alarmist reports. They find new risks to be alarmist about so that new insurance products can be invented.

And as Warren Buffet points out “climate change alarmism has simply made hurricane insurance more profitable, driving up premiums without increasing risk”.

CNSNews: Any climate alarmist will tell you that climate change is increasing extreme weather events, but liberal billionaire Warren Buffett easily destroyed that argument.

Buffett told CNBC March 3, that extreme weather events haven’t increased due to climate change, saying that weather events are consistent with how they were 30-50 years ago. Buffett, who is heavily invested in various insurance markets, said that climate change alarmism has simply made hurricane insurance more profitable, driving up premiums without increasing risk. 

Buffett said the supposed increase in extreme weather “hasn’t been true so far, Joe. We always think it’s cold. We always think it’s cold in Omaha. But, it was cold in Omaha 50 years ago.”

CNBC’s Becky Quick asked Buffett on March 3’s “Squawk Box” if extreme weather events have increased, affecting insurance markets. Buffett responded that “the effects of climate change, if any, have not affected our – they have not affected the insurance market.”

Specifically, Buffett rejected claims that hurricanes have increased due to climate change, citing his experience in hurricane insurance. He said “we’ve been remarkably free of hurricanes in the United States in the last five years.” He added “If you are writing hurricane insurance, it has been all profit.”

Buffett compared the climate to previous decades, dismissing claims that weather events have been more unusual. He said “I think that the public has the impression that because there has been so much talk about climate, that events of the last 10 years, from an insured standpoint on climate, have been unusual. The answer is, they haven’t.”

 

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Election Commission is the unsung hero of Indian democracy

March 5, 2014

The Indian Election Commission (EC) is one of the institutions which has maintained its autonomy, integrity and independence even though various political parties have from time to time tried to politicise it. It has been the unsung hero of establishing a solid tradition of the Indian style of  “democracy” and of orderly transitions between governments. There was a period during the 1980’s when the respect commanded by the EC among politicians and political parties diminished and election violence increased. But the advent of TN Seshan in 1991 as the Election Commissioner and his tough actions brought the political parties back into line and restored much of the EC’s position.

As the Chief Election Commissioner of Election Commission of India he introduced major electoral reforms and redefined the status and visibility of the Election Commission of India. He was largely successful in curbing electoral malpractices in India and his name became synonymous with transparency and efficiency.

Seshan was not popular with politicians but received enthusiastic support from the public. Governments tried to dilute the Chief Election Commissioner’s powers by appointing additional Commissioners but in 1993 the Supreme Court confirmed the CEC’s supremacy and reaffirmed his constitutional position. Constitutional amendments to alter his position require a two-thirds majority in Parliament. The Congress Party when in government made some half-hearted attempts to introduce constitutional amendments to curb his powers but gave up these attempts because of public opposition and lack of support in parliament.

The EC has just announced the dates of polling and counting for the next general election. The Election Commission on Wednesday announced the schedule for Lok Sabha polls 2014. Polling will be held in nine phases, starting on April 7th and the counting of votes will be held on May 16th. These general elections will see 814 million voters eligible to vote, about 100 million more than at the last general election. The term of the current Lok Sabha (lower house of Parliament) expires on June 1st and the new House has to be constituted by May 31st. This will be a fascinating election with a number of new forces in play – but more of that later.

The EC – rather than governments or political parties – has become the de facto guardian of free and fair elections in India and must be credited with much of the “success” of the establishment of a sort of “democracy” in India. The robustness of this “democracy” can be judged by the strength of the institution of the Election Commission and the independence of the Chief Election Commissioner.

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Ice cover on the Great Lakes at an unprecedented (since 1980) high

March 4, 2014

Ice cover on the Great lakes typically reaches maximum in the second week of March and the median since 1980 is at about 40%.

This week ice cover reached over 90%. Maximum in a “normal” year would be reached in the second week of March.

Both the diagrams below are from the Canadian Ice Service with the first showing ice cover historically for this week (since 1980) and the second showing the ice cover for this season (2013/2014) with the median for 1980-2010. This season ice cover is running at more than twice the median values.

Historical Great lakes Ice Cover week of 0304 Canadian Ice Service

Historical Great lakes Ice Cover week of 0304
Canadian Ice Service

Great Lakes Ice Cover Season 2013 - 2014 Canadian Ice Service

Great Lakes Ice Cover Season 2013 – 2014 Canadian Ice Service

Global warming contortionists will no doubt find strange and convoluted explanations to show that this massive increase of ice cover is not inconsistent with global warming. The missing heat could be hiding in the deep waters around the world and Nessie is probably running a fever.

Of course this massive increase of ice cover is also not inconsistent with the start of another Little Ice Age.

The most parsimonious explanation is that the climate and weather are going through their “natural variations” (due directly or indirectly to the Sun) and that there is no missing heat. Which leads to the obvious – but politically incorrect – conclusion that man-made global warming is – at most – insignificant.

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