Little Ice Age could well have resulted from reduced solar activity

October 4, 2013

This paper is particularly interesting because the senior author, Thomas Stocker, is the Vice-Chair of the IPCC and presented the summary of AR5 at the Press Conference last week!!

It is very strange then that the IPCC is so nonchalant about solar effects. In any event whatever the various climate models say, the Landscheidt Minimum is here and global cooling will continue for the next two decades or so. As The Register puts it.
” There’s been criticism for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) over its latest AR5 report from many quarters for many reasons. But today there’s new research focusing on one particular aspect of that criticism.The particular part of the IPCC’s science in question is its accounting for the effects of changes in the Sun on the climate of planet Earth. Many climatologists have long sought to suggest that the effects of solar variability are minor, certainly when compared to those of human-driven CO2 emissions. Others, however, while admitting that the Sun changes only a very little over human timescales, think that it might be an important factor. This matters because solar physicists think that the Sun is about to enter a “grand minimum”, a prolonged period of low activity. 
The current 11-year peak in solar action is the weakest seen for a long time, and it may presage a lengthy quiet period. Previously, historical records suggest that such periods have been accompanied by chilly conditions on Earth – perhaps to the point where a coming minimum might counteract or even render irrelevant humanity’s carbon emissions. The “Little Ice Age” seen from the 15th to the 19th centuries is often mentioned in this context.
Lehner, Flavio, Andreas Born, Christoph C. Raible, Thomas F. Stocker, 2013: Amplified Inception of European Little Ice Age by Sea Ice–Ocean–Atmosphere Feedbacks.  J. Climate, 26, 7586–7602.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00690.1
The University of Berne press release writes:
The study that was realized at the OCCR shows that volcanic eruptions and reduced solar radiation caused global cooling between the thirteenth and the fifteenth centuries. The resulting accelerated formation of sea ice in the Northern Seas triggered a positive feedback process that shaped the Little Ice Age. The winter weather in Europe is largely governed by the so-called North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). ……. Until now, the NAO was believed to be jointly responsible for the cooling in the early fifteenth century along with volcanic eruptions and weakened solar radiation. The subsequent Little Ice Age continued into the nineteenth century. Now, however, Bernese climate researchers Flavio Lehner, Andreas Born, Christoph Raible and Thomas Stocker reveal that the Little Ice Age was also able to take its course without the influence of the NAO, driven purely by the consequences of strong and frequent volcanic eruptions at the time, a reduced solar radiation, or both together.
Using simulations on the CSCS supercomputer “Monte Rosa”, the climate researchers searched for a feedback process that was capable of triggering the Little Ice Age.
….. For the scientists, the fact that all the slightly altered, realistic simulations and the synthetic ice simulation yielded consistent results is solid proof that the Little Ice Age was primarily governed by external triggers. Volcanic activity and less solar radiation initially caused an increase in sea-ice formation independently of atmospheric circulation. Due to the cooling, the mean sea level pressure gradually increased over the Barents Sea, which enabled the cold air to reach Europe. “However, this pressure response is clearly a delayed reaction of the atmosphere to the preceding processes in the ocean,” says Raible.
Abstract: The inception of the Little Ice Age (~1400–1700 AD) is believed to have been driven by an interplay of external forcing and climate system internal variability. While the hemispheric signal seems to have been dominated by solar irradiance and volcanic eruptions, the understanding of mechanisms shaping the climate on a continental scale is less robust. In an ensemble of transient model simulations and a new type of sensitivity experiments with artificial sea ice growth, the authors identify a sea ice–ocean–atmosphere feedback mechanism that amplifies the Little Ice Age cooling in the North Atlantic–European region and produces the temperature pattern suggested by paleoclimatic reconstructions. Initiated by increasing negative forcing, the Arctic sea ice substantially expands at the beginning of the Little Ice Age. The excess of sea ice is exported to the subpolar North Atlantic, where it melts, thereby weakening convection of the ocean. Consequently, northward ocean heat transport is reduced, reinforcing the expansion of the sea ice and the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere. In the Nordic Seas, sea surface height anomalies cause the oceanic recirculation to strengthen at the expense of the warm Barents Sea inflow, thereby further reinforcing sea ice growth. The absent ocean–atmosphere heat flux in the Barents Sea results in an amplified cooling over Northern Europe. The positive nature of this feedback mechanism enables sea ice to remain in an expanded state for decades up to a century, favoring sustained cold periods over Europe such as the Little Ice Age. Support for the feedback mechanism comes from recent proxy reconstructions around the Nordic Seas

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Posted in Alarmism, Climate, Solar science | 1 Comment »

Solar Cycle 24 has passed its maximum – 25 years of cooling to be expected in this Landscheidt minimum

October 4, 2013

The September sunspot numbers are now out and it would seem that Solar Cycle 24 has passed its maximum. It looks very much like SC23, SC24 and the coming SC25 will be comparable to SC4, 5 and 6. Solar Cycles 5 and 6 were responsible for the Dalton Minimum. SC 24 and 25 will constitute the Landscheidt Minimum and we can now expect some 25 additional years of global cooling (which has of course already started – about 6 or 7 years ago).

LSC: This month was recorded as the lowest month since Jan 2011 which was the beginning of the rampup for SC24. Cycle max is close or passed with the northern hemisphere changing polarity and the south still somewhat floundering. The southern hemisphere just outweighing the northern hemisphere, showing the south is not meeting expectations by some that a second peak will occur. … SIDC 36.9, NOAA unadjusted at 55.0 (prov). 

NASA has made its latest prediction:

SC24 prediction October 2013

SC24 prediction October 2013

The transition from SC 23 to SC 24 looks very similar to that from SC4 to SC5.

SC4-6 and Dalton

SC4-6 and Dalton

Of course the IPCC makes little of any solar effects and while the variation of direct total irradiance is small, they are rather nonchalant about the very many profound ways in which solar effects manifest themselves in climate (via cloud formation and ocean cycles for example). But the global warmists and the IPCC have now so much invested in their increasingly dubious hypothesis that they are prepared to make the most convoluted contortions to deny the hiatus and that global cooling has started.

Judith Curry: 

Section 8.4.1 of the IPCC AR5 Report provides 2 pages of discussion on observations of solar irradiance.  But they conclude that all this doesn’t matter for the climate.  I agree that the TSI RF variations are much less than projected increased forcing due to the GHG.  But the solar-climate connection is probably a lot more complex than this statement implies. …..

…. Henrik Svensmark has an essay While the Sun Sleeps, …..

Solar activity has always varied. Around the year 1000, we had a period of very high solar activity, which coincided with the Medieval Warm Period. But after about 1300 solar activity declined and the world began to get colder. It was the beginning of the episode we now call the Little Ice Age.

It’s important to realise that the Little Ice Age was a global event. It ended in the late 19th Century and was followed by increasing solar activity. Over the past 50 years solar activity has been at its highest since the medieval warmth of 1000 years ago. But now it appears that the Sun has changed again, and is returning towards what solar scientists call a “grand minimum” such as we saw in the Little Ice Age.

The match between solar activity and climate through the ages is sometimes explained away as coincidence. Yet it turns out that, almost no matter when you look and not just in the last 1000 years, there is a link. Solar activity has repeatedly fluctuated between high and low during the past 10,000 years. In fact the Sun spent about 17 per cent of those 10,000 years in a sleeping mode, with a cooling Earth the result.

You may wonder why the international climate panel IPCC does not believe that the Sun’s changing activity affects the climate. The reason is that it considers only changes in solar radiation. That would be the simplest way for the Sun to change the climate – a bit like turning up and down the brightness of a light bulb.

Satellite measurements have shown that the variations of solar radiation are too small to explain climate change. But the panel has closed its eyes to another, much more powerful way for the Sun to affect Earth’s climate. In 1996 we discovered a surprising influence of the Sun – its impact on Earth’s cloud cover. High-energy accelerated particles coming from exploded stars, the cosmic rays, help to form clouds.

[C]limate scientists try to ignore this possibility.  If the Sun provoked a significant part of warming in the 20th Century, then the contribution by CO2 must necessarily be smaller.

The outcome may be that the Sun itself will demonstrate its importance for climate and so challenge the theories of global warming. No climate model has predicted a cooling of the Earth – quite the contrary. ….

 

 

 

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Posted in Alarmism, Climate, Science, Solar science | 1 Comment »

Trigger happy in Washington

October 4, 2013

Just a “little” story with one death of a 34 year old mother in Washington on a day when over 300 would-be migrants from Africa drowned off the Sicilian coast. Yet I find it more disturbing and I wonder why?

A dental hygienist – with her baby in her car – apparently drove over some lowered security bollards outside the White House  and then panicked as security officers went – it seems  – more than a little berserk in trying to stop her. She had her toddler with her in the car. She was unarmed.

But after a hot pursuit she was shot dead in a fusillade of some 15 shots.

Stamford Advocate: A Stamford woman was shot and killed after trying to ram her car into a White House security barrier and leading police on a high-speed chase past the Capitol with her 18-month-old daughter in tow.

Miriam Carey, 34, of 114 Woodside Green, drove her black Infiniti coupe onto a driveway leading to the White House and over a set of lowered barricades.

When Carey couldn’t get through a second barrier, she spun the car in the opposite direction, flipping a Secret Service officer over the hood of the car as she sped away, said B.J. Campbell, a tourist from Portland, Ore.

A representative of Carey’s family in Brooklyn, N.Y., said the family is still gathering information and was surprised by Thursday’s incident.

The family was expected to issue a statement later Thursday night, said Dennis Jones, a friend of the family.

Carey was a licensed dental hygienist and according to a local law enforcement official, she suffered from mental illness, but had no criminal record.

But this is Washington. Where weighty matters such as government shut-downs and debt crises and wars and drone strikes are decided.

Security services protecting the most important people in the US – and therefore the World – have carte blanche when it comes to protecting their charges. I noted that the politicians were very quick to thank their trigger-happy security staff.

So what is just another death of a “disturbed” but unarmed woman who panicked – even if it happened a little closer to home than the great people in Washington are used to? Just some very minor collateral damage in the Great War on Terror.

What disturbs most – I think – is the indiscriminate application of power and brute force on the one hand and the total helplessness of the victim on the other. She drove over a barricade that had been lowered (and effectively was not there). She seems to have been surrounded by screaming armed security and panicked. Who wouldn’t? Once the security staff got their guns out it was only going to end in one way. She was probably doomed from the moment she drove over the lowered security bollards — and everything that followed was then inevitable. And it is that inevitability of her death the moment she drove onto the wrong driveway that disturbs.

But the President is safe and all the Senators and Representatives are safe. A job well-done?

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Finally! Toilets before temples says Modi

October 3, 2013

Narendra Modi may have announced his candidature a little early but he knows what needs to be done. Paradoxically, in spite of his image as a Hindu Nationalist and the support he has from the RSS, he may actually have the clout to break the stranglehold that religious mores and nonsense has on development in India. Certainly, judging from his track record in Gujarat, the RSS and the VHP may find Modi rather too hot to handle if he becomes Prime Minister.

In my estimation at least half – and maybe 90% – of the roadside shrines and mosques and temples that spring up at the slightest provocation are eyesores, worthless structures and illegal occupation of land. They usually have more to do with real estate politics than any religious intention. Nearly all new “religious” structures have a motive other than religion. But nobody dares to demolish them. Anything smelling of religious intolerance brings all the cowardice possible to the fore.

This appeal to urban India by Narendra Modi is quite clever. The same message has been put forward by others and they have immediately been opposed by the shirt-sleeve religious sentiments of the RSS and the VHP. But they will not dare oppose Modi. The appeal may not go down quite so well in rural India – but it may not carry many negatives.

DNA: Speaking at a function organised here for the youth, Modi said he dared to say so even though his image as a Hindutva leader did not allow him.

Build toilets first and temples later, said Hindutva icon and BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi on Wednesday.

Speaking at a function organised here for the youth, Modi said he dared to say so even though his image as a Hindutva leader did not allow him.

“I am known to be a Hindutva leader. My image does not permit to say so, but I dare to say. My real thought is– Pehle shauchalaya, phir devalaya’ (toilets first,  temples later),” he said.

The Gujarat Chief Minister’s comment could well stoke a controversy from within his party and sister organisations, which are keen to rake up the “temple issue” again ahead of next general elections.

A similar comment on toilets from Union Rural Development Minister Jairam Ramesh that the country needs more toilets than temples had stirred a row with a large number of women organisations and NGOs protesting against the remark.

Touting the slogan of development that could take the country on the path of speedy progress, Modi said lakhs of rupees were spent on temples in villages, but there were no toilets there.

Invoking Mahatma Gandhi’s thoughts, he lamented that it was ironic that women in the country had to go in the open for easing themselves in the absence of toilets.

Modi said it was the quality of a real leader to have the strength to handle all problems and lead the way forward.

He said that for good governance and speedy progress, it was necessary for planners to focus on outlay, outcome and social audit.

 

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Posted in Behaviour, India, Politics | 1 Comment »

The Pirates of Greenpeace

October 3, 2013

Greenpeace is not just becoming, it already is , a comic soap opera.

This is to be sung to the tune of “I am the Very Model of a Modern Major-General” from The Pirates of Penzance.

Preferably after dinner with a cognac (or two) and a good cigar!

(With thanks and apologies of course to Gilbert and Sullivan)

The Pirates of Greenpeace or I am the very model of a modern Environ-Mentalist

I am the very model of a modern Environ-Mentalist
I’ve information vegetable, animal, and min’ralist,
I know the Sins of Nations, and I quote the fights rightorical
From Vancouver to Murmansk, in order categorical;
I’m very well acquainted, too, with crises hypothetical,
I understand ecology, both the stupid and the fanciful,
About bio-diversity I’m teeming with a lot o’ fears
With many, many made-up facts ’bout the dying of the polar bears
I’m very good at man-made global warming ideology;
I know the sensitivity of fossil fuel combustology:
In short, in matters vegetable, animal, and min’ralist,
I am the very model of a modern Environ-Mentalist
I know our mythic history, and Nuclear power efficacy; 
I answer hard acrostics, I’ve a pretty taste for Piracy,
I can quote in haiku all the crimes of Big Petroleum;
Genetic crops to feed the poor meet with my opprobrium;
I can tell undoubted radicals from all the evil conservatives;
For all the problems of the world, I have the simple preservatives!
Then I can hum a fugue of which I’ve heard the music’s din afore, 
And whistle all the airs from that infernal nonsense Pinafore.
Then I can write an alarmist screed in IPCC complexity,
And tell you ev’ry detail of Pachauri’s Nobel perplexity.
In short, in matters vegetable, animal, and min’ralist,
I am the very model of a modern Environ-Mentalist.
In fact, when I know what is meant by “Decadal” and “Oscillatus”,
When I can tell at sight a hockey-stick from a hiatus,
When with such affairs as PDO’s and ADO’s I’m more adept,
And when with cosmic rays and clouds I’m a little more abreast,
When I have learnt what progress has been made in modern statistickery,
When I know more of tactics than a novice in a nunnery –
In short, when I’ve a smattering of physics elementary
You’ll say a better Environ-Mentalist was never so exemplary
For my scientific knowledge, though I’m plucky and adventury,
Has only been brought down to the start of the last century;
But still, in matters vegetable, animal, and min’ralist,
I am the very model of a modern Environ-Mentalist.

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Posted in Behaviour, Biodiversity, Conservation, Environment, Trivia | 2 Comments »

Swedish appeals court frees 6 of gang rape: Another case of when the law is an ass

October 2, 2013

Swedish rape law is an ass in many ways. Prosecutions are often brought or sought even in trivial and ridiculous cases (as in the case of Julian Assange for example). But real rapists generally go free. And apparently even in a case of gang rape ( 6 of them) where a teenage girl was raped and the rapists found guilty, they are set free by a higher court “because she was not sufficiently incapacitated”! 

Of course even with asinine laws it needs a judge to confirm and compound the law’s failings. According to the judge who released the rapists “The intercourse that took place can very well have happened against her stated will but if it didn’t take advantage of an incapacitated state it’s not rape.”

The rapists were all apparently immigrants. So was their victim it seems.

I wonder if that had any part to play in the judge’s determination?

The Local:  … six teenage boys were cleared by an appeals court of the alleged gang rape of a 15-year-old, ….

The boys admitted to having sexual intercourse with the girl at a party in Tensta, northern Stockholm, in March this year. Five were convicted of aggravated rape by the Solna District Court later that month. The sixth boy, who had given out condoms to the other boys, was convicted of attempted aggravated rape.

Sweden’s sex-crime legislation was amended on July 1st of this year, however, and included a rewrite of the term “incapacitated state” to “particularly vulnerable situation”, which in effect re-classifies certain types of sexual assault as rape.

But the Svea Court of Appeal (Svea hovrätt) ruled according to the old law as it was phrased prior to July 1st, 2013, arguing it was the law that applied at the time of the incident. In its ruling, the court found that the girl could not have been deemed to be in an “incapacitated state,” although it did recognize that she was in a vulnerable situation.

“She could have very well said no, but even if that was the case, that doesn’t automatically mean it’s rape,” judge Sven Jönsson told the Aftonbladet newspaper.

“The intercourse that took place can very well have happened against her stated will but if it didn’t take advantage of an incapacitated state it’s not rape.”

… “I said no,” the victim told the Aftonbladet newspaper over the weekend, saying she no longer went out but only spent time with her closest friends. “Do they mean it’s my fault?” 

With this kind of law the Delhi rapists could have been convicted of murder but not of rape. And the four surviving adult rapists received the death sentence because it was considered a particularly heinous crime. Without the rape conviction they would have escaped that sentence.

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Miliband caught between a Red and a Marxist place

October 2, 2013

UK politics is always interesting. This I find amusing and great fun. Especially since it is a fight between two parties neither of whom commands my very great respect.

The Daily Mail’s coverage of Ed Miliband’s father and his Marxism as that of a man who hated Britain is getting much coverage in the UK’s press and radio. The BBC radio news coverage – which I generally have on in the background – spent many minutes on the subject. I am just listening to “Red” Ken Livingstone defending both the Milibands but he is a little incoherent. He admitted that Miliband Jr. must have got his values from his father. But Pater Miliband, it seems, must be excused his Marxist views because he was just an academic. Ken doesn’t like the Daily Mail at all – since they once offered his former wife £10,000 for her story – which they would write. But even he was not very scathing about the Mail’s coverage!!

Ed Miliband has already earned the title of “Red” Miliband after his play last week threatening to regulate energy prices. He is also known to be an ardent supporter of regulation of the press. This is not of course full-blown Marxism but such plays are not inconsistent with being a budding Marxist. He cannot repudiate being labelled “Red” since he is courting the left wing of the Trade Unions but he would prefer not to have the word as a title. ( Red Arthur Scargill and Red Ken being examples to avoid). But he is now caught in a tough place. His every defence of his father – which is politically necessary  to demonstrate his family values – takes him closer to being labelled a Marxist.

Red Miliband’s lurch to the Left is a rejection of Blairism and New Labour – and that is probably to his electoral advantage. Not on grounds of ideology but for the contempt that Blair now arouses. But if he is seen to be returning to Harold Wilson’s “bend with the wind” brand of socialism it will not be to his advantage. And if he is seen to be a closet Marxist then he could blow his chances at the next election.

There are some opinions that the whole circus is to Red Miliband’s advantage. I am not so sure. It seems to me that he is now caught between being labelled “Red” or being labelled a Marxist and neither is good for his electoral chances.

Even more amusing is that even the Labour press (the Mirror and to some extent the Guardian and the BBC) are rather full of support for Ed Miliband but rather muted in their criticism of the Daily Mail. They don’t like Miliband’s views on Press Regulation.

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Qatar 2022 will achieve more deaths than goals

October 2, 2013

Based on the track record of World Cup Tournaments, the Qatar 2022 championship will see between 100 and 180 goals – most likely around 150.

But this number will be easily exceeded by the number of construction workers who have been killed by then. Already over 70 Nepalese workers have died since 2012 and the total number is probably around 200. By 2022 this number will exceed 1000.

Perhaps FIFA could introduce a safety performance index for the Qatar World Cup? Maybe to have less than 6 deaths per goal?

The Guardian:

Seventy Nepalese builders working in Qatar in the runup to the 2022 football World Cup have died on construction sites since the start of 2012.

Fifteen have died this year, according to a death toll announced by Nepal government representatives in Doha. It is the clearest official data yet on the dangers facing 1.2 million migrant workers in the Gulf kingdom during the $100bn (£62bn)construction drive before the World Cup and came as David Cameron called on Qatar’s leadership to take action. He said zero deaths on the London 2012 Olypmics project showed Doha “it can be done”.

Nepalese trade unions said many of the fatalities were caused by workers without proper safety equipment toppling from the upper floors of buildings. …..

There are 340,000 Nepali workers in Qatar and if the mortality rate was extrapolated across all migrant workers it would suggest that more than 200 foreign workers could have died on Qatari building sites since the start of 2012.

“This reminds us of the industrial revolution 150 years ago,” said Sharan Burrow, secretary general of the International Trade Union Confederation. “Young healthy men are being worked to death in Qatar. Scores are dying from heat exhaustion and dehydration after 12-hour shifts in blazing heat, often during the night in the squalid and cramped labour camps with no ventilation and appalling hygiene.”

Last week the Guardian reported that documents showed 44 Nepalese workers died in Qatar between 4 June and 8 August this year, and that more than half died of heart attacks, heart failure or workplace accidents. It said evidence of exploitation and abuses pointed to “modern-day slavery, as defined by the International Labour Organisation”.

Of course the Qatari government claims that all these numbers are exaggerated, but the reality is that the lives and working conditions of their “guest workers” is of little interest for the Qataris. Foreign workers are expendable and the supply of such workers is endless. In this they are happily supported by the manpower agencies – in Qatar and abroad – whose revenue depends upon the turnover of bodies. Perversely the death of a worker only leads to additional revenue for the agencies who find his replacement. From what I have heard from one such manpower agenciy in India, they get paid for fulfilling their quota of workers to the main contractor of the construction project. They merely deliver bodies to Qatar and the construction site. They only perform a cursory check on the suitability or the abilities of the workers. Two arms and two legs generally seems to enough.

These agencies then pay a cut of their fee to a Qatari owned agency in Qatar and that cut includes the amounts which are passed up the Qatari chain. The construction company in its turn pays an agreed amount for having obtained the contract to the same Qatari chain of beneficiaries – often through the same Qatari agency. The modes of doing business in Qatar are no great secret.

And FIFA buries its head in the sands.

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Posted in Behaviour, Football, Sport, World Cup | 1 Comment »

Ancient humans coped with massive climate change (without the IPCC)

October 1, 2013

Many people today seem to like to live in the fear of an impending catastrophe. The fears are all artificial and always include fanciful predictions of doom. Fears of uncontrollable population explosions, food shortages and starvation, of energy crises and depletion of all resources and of course of catastrophic global warming. And they give rise to such utterly useless bodies as the IPCC.

The period from before the last interglacial, the Eemian and through to the current interglacial in the Holocene has seen the rise of Anatomically Modern Humans and, starting from Africa, the peopling of the world. Anatomically modern humans make their appearance in Africa during an even earlier interglacial at around 250,000 years ago. They saw a descent into glacial conditions with global temperatures dropping about 6 °C and sea levels  dropping by some 150m. Then around 130,000 to 135,000 years ago a very rapid (relatively) climate change ocurred as the conditions of the Eemian were established.  Global temperatures increased by some 7 °C and sea levels rose by upto 170m. Temperatures were warmer than today and sea levels were higher.They didn’t just survive this change – they thrived. They made their way through the Sahara (perhaps through ancient green river corridors) and established themselves in the North and North-East of Africa. At this time sea-levels were high and crossing over into Europe or to Arabia would not have been possible. Both these crossings would have been made at earlier periods by the precursors of AMH and such groups would have given rise to the Neanderthals in Europe and the Denisovans in Asia. When sea levels allowed and perhaps driven by desertfication they crossed into Arabia. From Africarabia they moved across the globe – again perhaps driven by desertification of Arabia.

All these predecessors of ours – some ancestors and some distant cousins – not only survived but actually thrived. They had no IPCC to warn them of looming catastrophe if sea levels rose by 20 cm or temperatures rose by 1.5 °C. Not realising their dangers they still coped with changes of 7 °C and sea-levels of 170 m. Of course they were not without their resources. They had fire. They could probably speak but they had not been contaminated by the written word and were not corrupted by IPCC reports. They may have had some primitive form of rafts but they had no boats and the wheel was unknown. They had stone tools and their version of WMD consisted of many spears. They just coped with the weather and whatever it threw at them. They didn’t waste time predicting the climate and living in the fear of their own predictions. They had other more real fears to worry about.

Former interglacials

The period after the Eemian and upto the present day is particularly interesting.  For most of the time the world was in the grip of glacial conditions. Even as the climate changed and the world started warming up, there were sudden spikes of climate in the reverse direction as with the Younger Dryas. It was in this glacial period that AMH left Africa and then peopled the entire globe. It was not a period of stable climate and their expansion and growth took place in an environment of frequent and violent change. Real population increase started some time before the neolithic when we were still hunter-gatherers or semi-nomadic herders.

Age of Human Expansion

Age of Human Expansion

Of course in North Africa and the Middle East and Asia where much of the action took place for AMH there was little danger of advancing ice sheets. But there was the constant risk of sudden desertification, the drying up of fresh water resources and the sudden loss or appearance of new coastal land as sea levels increased or decreased. Rainfall patterns would have changed. Landscapes would have been transformed from forests to savannahs to deserts and back again. The only recourse available to humans of that time was to move to a more viable location whenever their survival was threatened.

And as they did that they populated the world and they prospered.

But they could have been stopped in their tracks if they had had the benefit of an IPCC.

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Posted in Anthropology, Archeology, Climate | 1 Comment »

An oblique view of the looming US government shutdown points to incompetence in governing

October 1, 2013

It is 6am in Europe and midnight, Monday 30th September in Washington. A US government shutdown is looming because of disagreement between the President and the Senate on the one hand with the House on the other. The Senate has a Democratic majority while the House has a Republican majority. The two sides cannot agree on budget measures to keep paying for government.

There is much – but very predictable – pointing of fingers.

My view is from another aspect. It is not the role of an opposition to lie down in front of the ruling party. It’s job is to oppose. That is the fundamental of the “check and balance” of a two party system. It is the job of the ruling party to do as little as is necessary in compromising with the opposition to be able to govern – not to blame the opposition. A failure to govern is in itself evidence of an inability to govern. It is evidence of incompetence.

It is the job of the Republican opposition to oppose. It is for the President and the Democxratic majority in the Senate to give in as little as is necessary and as much as is sufficient to be able to govern.

I cannot help but conclude that the President and his Democratic majority have lost sight of the fact that it is their responsibility to make the compromises sufficient and necessary. It is not the role of the Republicans to lie down and be rolled-over. In the hierarchy of things it is for the House to “propose” and the Senate and the president to “dispose”. When whatever comes up from the House is unacceptable and has to be rejected by the Senate or the President it indicates that the President and the Senate are not doing what is sufficient and necessary to get proposals from the House that can be approved.

There is a large element of risk aversion and a fear of “screwing his courage to the sticking place” about President Obama. The Senate Democratic majority is guilty of simple incompetence.

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