Drawing the line between science and faith

January 9, 2011

Steve McIntyre takes up another case of  somebody publishing a paper but refusing access to the data the paper is said to be based on at http://climateaudit.org/2011/01/06/more-data-refusal-nothing-changes/.

I have always found my simple and absolutely reliable demarcator between science and faith as being the words ” I believe that….”. The moment any statement is a matter of  “belief” rather than ” a conclusion drawn from the evidence” it becomes a matter of faith rather than of  “science”.

The moment an author cannot – for whatever reason – provide the data he has used then he is asking the reader to rely on “faith” or “trust” that the data does exist and is not faked or imagined or invented. For the reader the matter immediately descends to becoming a question of “belief” in the author if nothing else. And the author is surely not God to command an unquestioning belief.

  • Whenever an author refuses access to his data he reduces his own conclusions from being matters of science to becoming matters of “faith”.
  • When such a paper is said to be peer-reviewed then it reduces the group of peers to be little more than the acolytes to a faith.
  • When a journal publishes a paper without insisting that the data be archived and accessible then it reduces the journal in which the paper is being published to being no more than the parish magazine for a cult.

Ozone layer hits record thickness in Sweden: Was there ever an ozone hole problem?

January 9, 2011

Lately there has been an increasing view that some of the catastrophe scenarios about the ozone hole which led to the Montreal Protocol of 1989 were exagerrated and based on poor science. The effects of humans on ozone variations as opposed to natural variations may have been exaggerated. In fact there are now some suggestions that the actions taken were not only unnecessary but that they have not had much to do with the natural increase of ozone layer thickness observed in recent times.

The Local reports:

Sweden’s government weather agency reported on Friday that the ozone layer over southern Sweden reached its thickest levels at the end of last year, surpassing the previous record set in 1991.

Sweden’s Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Institut, SMHI) explained that the weather was particularly favourable at the end of 2010 and it explain why the ozone layer was especially thick at the time. “It is a step in the right direction, but it is still too early to say that the ozone layer has recovered. The favourable weather situation over the last few months has contributed to a record high,” said Weine Josefsson, a meteorologist at SMHI, in a statement on Friday.
The annual value of the ozone layer’s thickness over Norrköping in 2010 stood at a new high of 351.7 Dobson units (DU). The previous record was set in 1991 at 341.8 DU. The November and December values in particular set new records among the measurements regularly made at SMHI since 1988. ……….  Even in Norrland in the country’s north, the values have been positive in the last year. The ozone layer has been measured regularly in Vindeln northwest of Umeå in northern Sweden since 1991 and the latest results were also positive in this area.
However, it is not possible to record complete ozone measurements in the winter, so it is uncertain whether a record was set there as well at the end of last year. In November and December, air flows were affected by a special weather situation over western Europe, resulting in an extra thick ozone layer over this part of the world in these two months.
It is possible that the restrictions on ozone-depleting substances proposed in the Montreal Protocol in 1987 have also contributed to the thickening of the ozone layer. However, this type of measure is effective over a long period of time and it is difficult to distinguish the effect of natural variations in this case.

Widespread corruption within Turkish customs: Bribes pool of $125 million

January 9, 2011

In Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, Turkey ranks together with countries such as the Czech Republic, Hungary, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Slovenia but somewhat better than Italy.

A bribery ring composed of customs officials in Turkey and including the Director of the Istanbul Region has been revealed. It appears that the 34 arrested shared a bribes pool which in the period of the 6 month investigation is estimated to have contained about $125 million.

From the magnitude of the bribes pool it would seem that Turkey is well qualified for membership of the European Union and the monetary value of this case compares “well” with the Formula 1 bribery case in Germany – though that involved just one individual(?).

It was announced today that:

Thirty-four individuals serving at the İstanbul Customs Regional Directorate have been detained in a major investigation into bribery and corruption allegations at the customs department. The suspects include the chief director of the İstanbul Customs Regional Directorate.

The operation was carried out on Friday.

The allegations against the suspects include the collection of money paid in bribes in a pool and then the distribution of this money to İstanbul customs officials every Friday on the basis of rank and seniority. The investigators claim Chief Director Lütfi Ekinci was aware of this practice among his staff. Ekinci was detained in Mersin, where he was vacationing in his summerhouse.
The suspects allegedly relied on three methods to take bribes from companies importing goods to Turkey. One was to force companies that had all their documents in order to give money, calling this a “donation.” The other method was showing the value of an imported good to be nine-tenths less than the actual value on paper. In other words, an item that would normally cost TL 10 would be recorded as costing TL 1. A third method the officials used was falsifying documents and showing those products that are subject to higher taxes — such as cigarettes — as if they belong in another taxation category. The difference would be taken by the customs officials and added to the bribery pool. Investigators estimate the amount channeled into the bribe fund was TL 200 million ($125 million)…….. The center of the raids was the İstanbul Atatürk Airport Customs and the Ambarlı Customs Zone, but the raids were staged simultaneously at 20 different addresses. Hayrettin Eker, the İstanbul Atatürk Airport Customs Directorate Cargo Terminal chief, and Smuggling Intelligence and Narcotic Department Chief Coşkun Cihanoğlu were also detained in the operation. Documents and computers in the offices of the two men were seized by the police.

The police found TL 20,000 inside an envelope in Eker’s office. A total of TL 150,000 was found on other customs officials detained in the operation, which the investigators claim was taken in bribes. Investigators say the operations will extend to the companies that were involved in the customs bribery scheme.

Sea of Okhotsk rescues hampered by bad weather and thick ice

January 9, 2011

Freeing the ships – and especially the factory ship Sodruzhestvo – trapped in the Sea of Okhutsk is going to be a slow process. In addition to the Magadan and the Admiral Makarov the icebreaker Krasin has also been deployed. (This is the second Krasin and was built in 1976 in Finland – the original Krasin was built in 1916 and designed by Admiral Stepan Makarov)

The Gulf of Sakahalin is still heavy with ice. In addition to the thick ice of upto 2 m reported earlier, local ice thickness can be 2 – 4 m with chunks upto 25 m thick. Bad weather is also hampering the rescue operations.

Krasin on its way to McMurdo

Icebreaker Krasin: Image via Wikipedia

Itar-Tass:

MOSCOW, January 9 (Itar-Tass) — Russia’s Minister of Transport Igor Levitin chaired on Sunday another meeting on the rescue operation in the Sea of Okhotsk.

“The participants in the meeting discussed the rescue operation in the anomalous bad weather conditions with persistent North-West stormy wind of 25 metres per second, zero visibility and heavy ice,” the Ministry’s press service said. On January 9, the Krasin icebreaker is expected to approach the Admiral Makarov icebreaker.

“If the weather permits, they will pull the Shore of Hope refrigerator to ice-free waters,” the source said. Earlier, the Admiral Makarov towed the Professor Kizevetter research vessel into an easily passable ice area and handed it over to the Magadan icebreaker which led it to open waters.

The third ship, the Sodruzhestvo floating base, remains stranded in the ice. Experts believe that it’s going to be harder to take it out to clear waters because its hull is wider than that of the icebreakers. The Krasin icebreaker is expected to widen the canal for the ship’s passage.

Three Russian vessels, the Sodruzhestvo, the Professor Kizevetter and the Shore of Hope got trapped in the ice of the Sakhalin Gulf, the Sea of Okhotsk, on December 30 of the past year. According to scientists who have carried out research, the thickness of ice in the Gulf in various periods may vary from two to four meters. Some chunks of ice may reach the thickness of 25 meters.

Methane from BP oil spill has vanished – presumed digested by microbes

January 9, 2011
Molecule of methane.

methane molecule: Image via Wikipedia

A new paper online in Science:

Science DOI: 10.1126/science.1199697 A Persistent Oxygen Anomaly Reveals the Fate of Spilled Methane in the Deep Gulf of Mexico, by John D. Kessler, David L. Valentine, Molly C. Redmond, Mengran Du, Eric W. Chan, Stephanie D. Mendes, Erik W. Quiroz, Christie J. Villanueva, Stephani S. Shusta, Lindsay M. Werra, Shari A. Yvon-Lewis and Thomas C. Weber

It adds to the growing body of evidence that the oceans with the help of microbes are much more resilient than they have been assumed to be.

https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2010/09/12/microbes-ate-the-bp-oil-plume/

https://ktwop.wordpress.com/2010/10/20/microbes-consume-methane-10-to-100-times-faster-than-thought/

As Science News puts it:

Methane, the predominant hydrocarbon produced by the BP blowout last year, has all but vanished from Gulf of Mexico waters, a new study reports — presumably eaten up by marine bacteria. That hadn’t been expected to happen for years.

Two-thirds of the hydrocarbons released by the BP accident were forms of natural gas: largely methane, ethane and propane. While Gulf microbes quickly began devouring the larger gas molecules, they initially left tiny methane — which accounted for an estimated 87.5 percent of the gas initially emitted — largely untouched.

Some of the authors of the new paper had reported in the Oct. 8Science finding almost no microbial breakdown of BP methane in June, about a month and a half into the 83-day gusher.

Rates of biodegradation in subsea plumes, where this gas had been accumulating, “indicated methane would persist for many, many years, if not almost a decade,” observes John Kessler, a chemical oceanographer at Texas A&M University in College Station and an author of that earlier report.

To begin quantifying just how slowly that breakdown was proceeding, he and his colleagues returned to the Gulf for three research cruises between August 18 and October 4. Their sampling at more than 200 sites turned up no BP methane. In fact, concentrations of the gas in seawater throughout the spill zone were lower than typical background concentrations for the Gulf, these researchers report online January 6 in Science.

“We were caught off guard,” Kessler says. “But that highlights the beauty of the scientific process. You put together hypotheses based on the information at hand and test them. And whether we’re right or wrong, at the end of the day we’ll have learned something new about the system.”

The new paper’s conclusions “are quite consistent with what we’ve seen,” says microbial ecologist Terry Hazen of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California. On August 24, his team was the first to report online in Science that BP oil plumes had disappeared.

 

Light weekend

January 8, 2011

Light blogging this weekend to attend a family event.

Perceived versus actual corruption: Chief Risk Officer of Bayerische Landesbank took $50 million bribes

January 7, 2011

Transparency International in its newly published Corruption Perception Index focuses understandably on the under-developed and developing countries where the endemic petty bribery and facilitation fees to augment low wage levels are the visible and easily identifiable face of corruption. Of course grand corruption is also present in these countries but perception indices are inevitably skewed and dominated by what is visible and to the number of people affected rather than reflecting the monetary value of the corruption.

My own experience suggests – but I cannot prove – that in monetary terms the levels of corruption in the developed world are orders of magnitude larger but much more sophisticated and very well camouflaged compared to cases in the developing world. But with the much higher living standards the need for highly visible petty corruption has been largely eliminated. But the greed based cases in the developed world – when they are disclosed – are usually spectacular. As has now happened in Germany.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-05/ex-bayernlb-management-board-member-gribkowsky-arrested-in-bribery-probe.html

Gerhard Gribkowsky, the former chief risk officer of German state-owned bank Bayerische Landesbank, was arrested today over allegations he accepted bribes during his tenure at the lender. Munich prosecutors are investigating him on bribery, breach of trust and tax evasion allegations, Barbara Stockinger, a spokeswoman for the prosecutors, said in an e-mailed statement today. An arrest warrant was issued and executed today, she said.

The probe is reviewing the sale of a stake in Formula One motor-sports company which Gribkowsky, 52, was responsible for overseeing. BayernLB sold the stake in 2006 without it being properly evaluated, Stockinger said. “According to the current findings, the suspect in turn received $50 million in payments disguised via two consultancy agreements,” Stockinger said.

One instance with $50 million involved to one individual!!!

My $20 facilitation bribe to speed up my visa renewal in a developing country would need to be replicated 2,500,000 times for monetary equivalence with this one case. The corruption perception index would be overwhelmed.

I have the clear impression that the monetary value of corrupt and fraudulent practices in the developed world is enormous but extremely sophisticated and rarely found out. From UK MP’s cheating on their expenses, to selling Knighthoods and other Honours , to European MP’s expense and subsidy fiddles, to billions distributed in carbon trading scams and the enormous cases of corruption/fraud whether at AIG or Lehman Brothers or by Bernie Madoff.

The monetary value of fraud and corruption in the OECD countries is probably one or two orders of magnitude greater than in the developing countries but the number of cases is probably an order of magnitude less.

The CPI is perhaps a measure of visible corruption in the public sector – but does not- and can not –  reflect the monetary value of sophisticated – and invisible – corrupt practices.

Dead turtle doves now in Italy

January 7, 2011

After all the previous reports now comes this from Italy:

http://www.geapress.org/ambiente/faenza-la-pioggia-delle-tortore-morte-si-colora-di-blu/10343

(free translation)

There are certainly many hundreds, probably thousands, of the collared dove who are dying at this moment in Faenza. They are lying in heaps in the flower beds, crushed by machinery in the streets, horribly hung from trees like Christmas balls. Many, many more,  in the fenced land for industrial use.

The WWF has collected others, not all already dead. A dozen, in fact, have been sent to the Center of Recovery The Robin of Modena, where those arriving are still alive but died shortly after.

Over all a mystery. Inside the beak, in some animals, the staining was of a strange blue.

The bluish tint, however, is also typical of potassium cyanide, a deadly poison used, for example, from poachers. Cyanide, however, also causes hypoxia, …. maybe a dove with an upset stomach dies suffocated. Another poison which appears bluish comes from some some types of rat poison.

Wind turbine manufacturers in trouble

January 7, 2011
Suzlon wind energy project

Suzlon wind energy project: Image via Wikipedia

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/consolidation-likelyrenewable-energy-sector-ey_510295.html

Beleaguered wind power major Suzlon, may be on the block. Sources indicate that Spain’s Gamesa is looking to pick up a majority stake in the company. Suzlon added in its statement to the stock exchanges that the news was both speculative in nature and inaccurate. Market rumours also have it that Suzlon’s founders the Tanti family may sell its entire 55% stake to Gamesa’s UK unit.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/stocks-in-news/suzlon-investors-wonder-over-the-companys-accurate-picture-/articleshow/7219558.cms

Suzlon is the most leveraged wind company with net debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation ratio of 4.2, say JPMorgan analysts. That compares with less than 1 for global peers.
There are two ways out when saddled with Himalayan debt – either sell assets to pay off the debts, or declare bankruptcy. Suzlon is selling off stakes in assets such as gearbox-maker Hansen. But the question is what could be going on in the mind of promoter Tulsi Tanti, who was the nation’s eighth-richest man in 2006. After all, Mr Tanti had picked ‘Suz’ in Suzlon from the word, soojh-boojh, which means intelligence, and ‘lon’ from the word, loan. One part of it, ‘lon’, seems to have run longer than desired. So, will the other inspiration, intelligence, come into play?
If investors bet that intelligence would play a more dominant role than passion, then they may not be wrong in speculating that a possible stake sale could happen. Of course, at what valuation is anyone’s guess.
Mr Tanti, who once delivered fortunes for private funds such as Chryscapital and Citigroup, now heads a company whose shares are down more than 85% from their peak. The company may have created a record in going for seven share sales in five years, but there may be no one to buy in the next issue.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jan/06/wind-turbine-maker-skykon-in-administration

Britain’s nascent wind manufacturing industry has suffered a blow after the owner of Scotland’s only large turbine plant went into administration. The plant near Campbeltown, owned by Danish firm Skykon, has been closed and more than 120 staff sent home without pay after Ernst & Young was appointed as administrators this week.

A spokesman for the administrators said several expressions of interest had been received for the business and that staff would be updated next week. The future of the plant has been uncertain for several years. The Scottish government last year agreed to provide a £9m rescue loan to persuade Skykon to buy it from Danish rival Vestas. But Skykon has been in insolvency proceedings for months in Denmark after a slowdown in wind turbine orders across Europe. Only about £2m of the loan has already been paid. Ernst & Young declined to comment on whether the Scottish government would get that money back.

The prospects of production resuming at the plant are bleak. The number of new wind farms being planned in Europe is falling because governments are withdrawing subsidies to cut budget deficits while energy companies’ balance sheets are becoming increasingly strained.

Autism activism vs. Big Pharma: A plague on both your houses

January 6, 2011

I do not know for sure but it seems likely that there is no strong link between autism and the MMR vaccine.

But the British Medical Journal which has now accused Dr. Wakefield of deliberate fraud with regard to his paper in the Lancet making the link does not cover itself with any glory. It only begs the question as to what standards they actually do have.

The “vaccination industry” promoted by Big Pharma also does not inspire much confidence that anything other than the bottom line is their primary concern. As was seen in the H1N1 vaccination circus, the beneficial links between the medical establishment (WHO) and vaccine manufacturers is widely prevalent and highly suspect. Parasitic lawyers who also have a vested interest in “proving” the link between autism and anything which could help their litigation do not impress either.

Dr Andrew Wakefield

Dr Andrew Wakefield, whose research claimed a link between MMR vaccinations and autism, denies inventing data. (Reuters: Luke MacGregor)

Dr Wakefield now accuses Big Pharma (including Association of British Pharmaceutical Industries) and the journalist Brian Deer of running a smear campaign against him. That may well be so but it does not justify his payments of some £400,000 from lawyers pursuing autism litigation. Whether his book is actually to defend his work or has some other motive is highly unclear.

Dr. Wakefield, British Medical Journal, Brian Deer, Association of British Pharmaceutical Industries, The Lancet —-

A Plague on all your houses!

Sources:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/01/06/3107885.htm?section=justin

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/HEALTH/01/06/autism.vaccines/?hpt=T1