Shooting the messenger to discredit the message

November 27, 2010

From ancient times, envoys, messengers, heralds and town criers have all had to live with the risk of the messages they delivered incensing their audiences sufficiently to cause a backlash against the messenger. “Shooting the messenger” is then the metaphoric expression of this illogical but understandable lashing out against the bearer of bad news. Envoys and heralds were sometimes arrested or beheaded and sent back not just because the message was disliked but to create and transmit a new message by the action itself.

But it is only in modern times with the advent of readily available duplication (micro-film, photocopiers, magnetic tapes, electronic scanning and now cut-and-paste) and of easy dissemination across the globe (fax, computers, email and internet) that the leaking of confidential documents has come into its own. That confidential documents have always existed and will always exist is axiomatic and it is not only governments that have an interest in keeping documents secret. While the act of keeping some information secret may well be to hide some wrongdoing, it is not in itself indicative of illegality. Nevertheless the judgement that something needs to be kept secret is in itself  acknowledgement that the information would cause harm – to someone – if disclosed.

“Whistleblowing” – defined as revealing wrongdoing which is being kept secret – is now taken to be  admirable whether the wrongdoings are by politicians or governments or corporations.  Legislation is in place in many countries ostensibly to “protect” whistleblowers but is usually quite ineffective in preventing reprisals against the whistleblower. Often the legislation is intentionally ineffective and the only purpose is to project an image of “open government” but not actually to permit the disclosure of government secrets. Reprisals have often been crude and violent. In India, whistleblowers have even been killed out of hand. So-called Freedom of Information legislation also strives to maintain this balance of creating an impression of openness but where what is desired to be kept secret can be maintained secret (either by rejection of the request or by introducing delays or by deletion of sensitive information).

The messengers today are often a part of the message. Whistleblowing may have a political agenda. Whistleblowers may be political activists trying to mobilise the forces of public opinion. “Shooting the messenger” in the form of discrediting the messenger or his objectives has now come to be seen as a legitimate method of trying to discredit the message. This was attempted in the Climategate disclosures. Numerous articles were written to label the disclosure the work of a “hacker” (and therefore an illegal act) rather than that of a “leaker” (and therefore the act of an internal whistleblower). In the event the substance of the revelations carried their own weight and even so called “whitewash” enquiries carried out to downplay the substance of the revelations have not been very successful.

Logo used by Wikileaks

Wikileaks: image via Wikipedia

In October this year Wikileaks disclosed the Iraq War Logs. Governments around the world first tried to prevent the release by claiming that people would be in danger of their lives and security would be undermined. Nobody denied that the information was authentic. Once the material had been released, the objectives of the release and the people behind the release were attacked. Governments across the world cooperated to try and discredit the messages. “National Security concerns” became the common theme for the governments in the US and Australia and the UK. The Swedish authorities have accused the Wikileaks founder (Julian Assange) of rape and attempted rape in a crude and rather bizarre incident – but presumably as part of a concerted effort to prevent further revelations. But the information revealed about the number of civilians killed in Iraq and the manner of their killing can no longer be kept secret.

Now, further revelations of confidential US State Department information are expected from Wikileaks. The attacks on the messenger have started. The US government has contacted scores of other governments to try and defuse and discredit the information before it is disclosed. As the BBC writes:

The plan by whistleblower website Wikileaks to release millions more classified US documents will put lives at risk and damage national security, the state department has warned. A spokesman said it would do harm to US international relations if the leaks contained diplomatic cables.

The Pentagon said US military interests could also be damaged. The Wikileaks website said the US authorities were afraid of being held to account.

The state department spokesman, PJ Crowley, said the release of confidential communications was “harmful to our national security. It does put lives at risk. It does put national interests at risk”. Mr Crowley said that diplomatic cables involved discussions with governments and private citizens, and their release could erode trust in the US as a diplomatic partner. “They are going to create tension in relationships between our diplomats and our friends around the world,” he said. “When this confidence is betrayed and ends up on the front pages of newspapers or lead stories on television or radio, it has an impact,” Mr Crowley said.

It is notable that when information is disclosed there is not much effort expended in denying the authenticity of the information. Instead the focus is more and more on attacking the purpose of the disclosure and on attacking the messengers. But even the most horrifying disclosures do not seem to have increased the accountability of governments or their desire to justify their behaviour. “National Security” is the new mantra they can hide behind.

But I cannot help thinking that this tendency of governments, politicians and officials increasingly to attack the messenger is ultimately due to an inability to stand up for one’s own behaviour. It boils down to a lack of courage.


Oxygen – carbon dioxide atmosphere found on Saturn’s moon Rhea

November 27, 2010

From The New Scientist:

On its journey around Saturn and its moons, the Cassini mission – jointly run by NASA and the European Space Agency – has made another breathtaking discovery. The findings, published in Science (DOI: 10.1126/science.1198366), show that Rhea, the second biggest moon of the giant planet, has an atmosphere that is 70 per cent oxygen and 30 per cent carbon dioxide. This adds to the picture of Rhea that Cassini has already provided by imaging its craters anddiscovering its rings.

“This really is the first time that we’ve seen oxygen directly in the atmosphere of another world”, Andrew Coates, from University College London’s Mullard Space Science Laboratory, told The Guardian. Layers containing oxygen had already been detected around the Jovian moons Europa and Ganymede in the 1990s, but only from a distance using NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope.

This time, Cassini’s instrument had the chance to “smell” that oxygen, as it flew through it over Rhea’s north pole, just 97 kilometres above the surface, according to the details given on Space.com. This layer – with an oxygen density probably about 5 trillion times less than on Earth – was “too thin to be remotely detected”, said Ben Teolis of the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio.

These three views of Saturn's moon Rhea from NASA's Cassini spacecraft are enhanced to show colorful splotches and bands on the icy moon's surface. New observations have shown Rhea has an oxygen-rich atmosphere. Credit: NASA/JPL/SSI/LPI

Cassini Finds an Oxygen–Carbon Dioxide Atmosphere at Saturn’s Icy Moon Rhea B. D. Teolis, G. H. Jones, P. F. Miles, R. L. Tokar, B. A. Magee, J. H. Waite, E. Roussos, D. T. Young, F. J. Crary, A. J. Coates, R. E. Johnson, W.-L. Tseng and R. A. Baragiola

Science DOI: 10.1126/science.1198366, Published Online 25 November 2010

Abstract: The flyby measurements of the Cassini spacecraft at Saturn’s moon Rhea reveal a tenuous oxygen–carbon dioxide atmosphere. The atmosphere appears to be sustained by chemical decomposition of the surface water ice under irradiation from Saturn’s magnetospheric plasma. This in situ detection of an oxidizing atmosphere is consistent with remote observations of other icy bodies such as Jupiter’s moons Europa and Ganymede, and suggestive of a reservoir of radiolytic O2 locked within Rhea’s ice. The presence of CO2suggests radiolysis reactions between surface oxidants and organics, or sputtering and/or outgassing of CO2endogenic to Rhea’s ice. Observations of outflowing positive and negative ions give evidence for pickup ionization as a major atmospheric loss mechanism.

“Root canal” performed successfully on elephant

November 26, 2010

Dentists in India have successfully carried out a “root canal” procedure on a 27 year old elephant which had been suffering from tusk-ache for 5 years.

From AFP:

A three-member team of dentists helped by a veterinary surgeon carried out the two-and-a-half-hour operation on the male pachyderm which developed a cavity in one of its tusks, they said. The operation took place in early November after the owner of the pet elephant brought the animal for an examination of the infection that had damaged the tusk. “We decided to use the traditional root canal process as a remedy,” dentist Sunil Kumar told AFP in state capital Thiruvananthapuram.

The elephant had a six centimetre cavity in its tusk: photo AFP

The Hindu reports:

In a procedure claimed to be the first of its kind in the world, an elephant in Kerala has successfully undergone a conservative dental treatment to repair his cracked tusk. Twenty-seven-year-old Devidasan, the tusker from Thrissur, had been living with a crack on its tusk for the past five years which was causing him discomfort.

The elephant’s owner and Dr. V. Sunil Kumar, Forest Veterinary officer, approached Dr. C. V. Pradeep, Conservative dentist and Endodontist of Kannur, to see if the crack could be treated and beauty of the tusk restored. Dr. Pradeep, former principal of Pariyaram Dental College, and currently professor and head of the Department, PSM Dental College, Thrissur, first extensively studied the structure of the tusk and found that that the elephant tusk and human teeth had similar structure. He chose a method of treatment based on the histology of the tusk. Dr. Pradeep told PTI that the 50 cm long and 4 cm deep crack was filled using micro and macromechanical bonding using light cure composite resin. The resin was bonded to the elephant dentin by using nano-filled bonding agent. The dentin was cleaned, microblasted and etched. Bonding agent was applied layer by layer and light cured two weeks ago.

The animal was not tranquilised during the treatment which took two and half hours and it was fully cooperative throughout the procedure, Dr. Pradeep said.

Lot of water and dirt was accumulating in the tusk and if the crack was not treated, it would lead to the death of the pulp and result in pus formation which could endanger the animal’s life, he said. The elephant could not be taken for temple festivals as the crack on the tusk was not pleasing to the eye. The treatment was a challenge and this was the first time in the world that a ‘conservative approach’ was followed and no part of the tusk was removed, he said.

Finding the equipment to treat the pachyderm was an elephantine task. “We had to modify and customise some of the equipment”, he said adding some of the equipment had to be made specially for the procedure. About 47 tubes of composite resin was used to fill the crack, he said. The cause of the crack in the tusk is unknown. However the owner of the elephant was conscious of the consequences of the widening crack and hence had requested for the treatment. The animal has now recovered and has already started going for temple festivals.

Dr. Pradeep was assisted by Dr. Jayaprasad Kodoth, Prof. of Periodontics, Kanhangad and Dr. George Jacob, of PSM Dental College, Thrissur.

 

New pictures show the return of Jupiter’s lost stripe

November 26, 2010

In May this year one of Jupiter’s characteristic stripes (the South Equatorial Belt) disappeared. Then  two weeks ago a turbulent plume was observed breaking through the giant planet’s cloudtops in the south equatorial zone heralding the possible re-emergence of the stripe.

Now the latest infrared pictures of Jupiter show the turbulent plume developing into a “trail” suggesting that the SEB is re-emerging from under the ammonia clouds. The BBC reports:

Jupiter's returning stripe highlighted (JPL, University of Oxford, UC Berkeley, Gemini Observatory, University of San Carlos)

Jupiter's returning stripe highlighted (JPL, University of Oxford, UC Berkeley, Gemini Observatory, University of San Carlos)

The South Equatorial Belt had blended into surrounding white clouds but an “outbreak” spotted by an amateur astronomer heralds the stripe’s return. The stripe’s disappearing act is due to clouds shifting altitudes, with white ammonia clouds obscuring clouds below. This performance will give astronomers their first chance to study the weather and chemistry behind the phenomenon.

As part of the show, the Great Red Spot has darkened, but astronomers say it will lighten again as the South Equatorial Belt comes back. The stripe has come and gone several times in recent decades but the mechanism by which it returns remains mysterious. The first signs of the return were spotted by Christopher Go of the Philippines and was confirmed by the Infrared Telescope Facility and Gemini and Keck telescopes in Hawaii.

“At infrared wavelengths, images in reflected sunlight show that the spot is a tremendously energetic ‘outburst,’ a vigorous storm that reaches extreme high altitudes,” said Imke de Pater, professor of astronomy at the University of California, Berkeley. “The storms are surrounded by darker areas, bluish-grey in the visible, indicative of ‘clearings’ in the cloud deck.”

Airbus vs. Boeing: or a tale of the marketing of delays and engine problems

November 26, 2010

For large, complex, expensive, high-technology products (airplanes, turbines, power plants or ships for example) it is usually not worth indulging in too much negative marketing based on a competitor’s technical difficulties. Early technical difficulties and “teething” problems are common and when a competitor has difficulties it usually leads to some feeling of satisfaction but it is tempered by the knowledge that one could easily suffer similar difficulties. So when GE experiences some problem with its gas turbines or Areva has delays in its nuclear plants there will never be an overt, negative marketing campaign by Siemens against GE or by Westinghouse against Areva.

File:Airbus A380.jpg

A380: image wikipedia

And this is the current situation between the Airbus A380 and Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner. The A380 had its share of delays and was over 2 years late in coming into service. Right now the troubles that Rolls Royce are having with their Trent 900 engines is not helping the A380 image. (There are only two engines available for the A380 but it is noteworthy that the General Electric / Pratt & Whitney Alliance which manufacture the GP7200 engine which competes with the Trent 900 are not indulging in any overt negative marketing). The “Rolls Royce effect” for Airbus is currently negative because of the Trent 900 issues but it is indirectly mitigated by the reports of delays in developing the Trent 1000 which is one of the engines for Boeing’s 787.

File:Boeing 787first flight.jpg

B787 First flight: image Wikipedia

As Airbus fights to get airlines to accept the A380 their “best friend” strangely is the delays to the B787 Dreamliner program. The Dreamliner has been further delayed by an electrical system fault which caused a fire on a test flight in early November. For an airline the decision of choosing between Boeing and Airbus has become not one of comparing the advantages each has to offer but instead one of judging the risk exposure that a choice may bring. It becomes a comparison of potential “downsides” and risk mitigation possibilities rather than selecting between potential “upsides”.

For Airbus and Boeing, their sales processes now have to emphasise the risk mitigation available with their products rather than promoting all the advantages their products have to offer. This is unusual for a “sales process” but nothing new in the history of marketing of technologically new products. But it is not so easy for corporations, their salesmen and for sales processes to shift from promoting advantages to the much more difficult task of showing that the risks (whether of delay or of technical difficulties) they pose are less than that of the competitor. Even in terms of financing, the usual offers of financing and leasing packages for the customer must now additionally address the mitigation of financial and consequential exposures in the event that a risk materialises. When a single A380 costs around $320 million, a Boeing 747-400 about $250 million and a Dreamliner has a price tag of $150 -200 million, then downtime and delays have enormous financial consequences for the customer. Marketing strategy for new products in the face of heightened risk perceptions is quite different to the marketing of “tried and tested” products. But this is a fascinating marketing challenge!

The latest reports of delays to the Dreamliner has led to harsh words about Boeing from a potential customer. CityAM reports:

QATAR Airways has threatened to hand extra business to European aircraft giant Airbus after attacking Boeing over problems with its new 787 Dreamliner. Chief executive Akbar Al Baker said the airline was considering increasing its order for five Airbus A380 super-jumbo planes and might order a re-engined version of the A320 single-aisle jetliner. He did not say how many more A380s it might order.

Qatar has expanded its fleet from four to 94 aircraft in 13 years and has orders for 200 more from Airbus and its US rival Boeing worth $40bn, including 30 Dreamliners. Al Baker said Boeing had “failed” in developing its 787 Dreamliner, which is expected to suffer further delays following a fire on a test flight.

Boeing’s development of the carbon-composite 787 is running around three years late and brokers expect a further delay as it addresses the cause of a fire which led to the test flight being grounded two weeks ago.

But I would expect that there is a strong element of price negotiation in Qatar Airways’ statement!

Tasting Sour – Add a dash of protons

November 26, 2010
Schematic drawing of a taste bud

Taste bud: image via Wikipedia

Each taste bud on human or animal tongues contain around 50 receptor cells. Each of the receptor cells then reacts to one of the 5 primary tastes – sour and salty are detected with ion channels while sweet, bitter and umami (savoury) are detected by G protein coupled receptors. There is some debate as to whether there is a sixth primary taste that distinguishes fat content. At one time it was thought that different parts of the tongue responded to different tastes but it is now clear that all tastes are detected by all parts of the tongue.

New research has studied the mechanism by which sour is detected.

Rui B. Chang, Hang Waters, Emily R. Liman: A proton current drives action potentials in genetically identified sour taste cells. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2010; DOI:10.1073/pnas.1013664107

Science Daily has the story:

Neurobiology researchers at the University of Southern California have made a surprising discovery about how some cells respond to sour tastes.

Sour is the sensation evoked by substances that are acidic, such as lemons and pickles. The more acidic the substance, the more sour the taste. Acids release protons. How protons activate the taste system had not been understood. The USC team expected to find protons from acids binding to the outside of the cell and opening a pore in the membrane that would allow sodium to enter the cell. Sodium’s entry would send an electrical response to the brain, announcing the sensation that we perceive as sour.

Instead, the researchers found that the protons were entering the cell and causing the electrical response directly.

The finding is to be published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS). “In order to understand how sour works, we need to understand how the cells that are responsive to sour detect the protons,” said senior author Emily Liman, associate professor of neurobiology in the USC College of Letters, Arts and Sciences.

“In the past, it’s been difficult to address this question because the taste buds on the tongue are heterogeneous. Among the 50 or so cells in each taste bud there are cells responding to each of the five tastes. But if we want to know how sour works, we need to measure activity specifically in the sour sensitive taste cells and determine what is special about them that allows them to respond to protons.”

Liman and her team bred genetically modified mice and marked their sour cells with a yellow florescent protein. Then they recorded the electrical responses from just those cells to protons. The ability to sense protons with a mechanism that does not rely on sodium has important implications for how different tastes interact, Liman speculates. “This mechanism is very appropriate for the taste system because we can eat something that has a lot of protons and not much sodium or other ions, and the taste system will still be able to detect sour,” she said. “It makes sense that nature would have built a taste cell like this, so as not to confuse salty with sour.”

Antarctic sea ice extent almost 3 SD’s higher than “average”

November 25, 2010

Source:

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png

The Southern Hemisphere is coming into summer but seems significantly cooler (and wetter in Australia) than usual.

The ice extent in the Antarctic is reducing much slower than normally and currently the sea ice extent is about 1.3 million sq. km or 9%  or 3 Standard Deviations higher than the 1979 – 2000 average.

The Pacific Oscillation – or La Nina – is probably responsible.

Boeing 787 Dreamliner further delayed to fix electrical problems

November 25, 2010
2nd Boeing 787 First Flight

2nd Boeing 787 first flight: Image via Wikipedia

Flightblogger reports:

In the 15 days since ZA002, Boeing’s second of six 787 flight test aircraft, suffered a fire in its aft electrical equipment bay, forcing a fleet-wide halt in certification testing, the airframer is days, if not hours, away from releasing its findings of its investigation and disclosing the impact to the aircraft’s first delivery, say company and industry sources.

An additional delay to the 787’s entry into service with All Nippon Airways is now a virtual certainty, the length of that delay, however, is yet unknown.
While some analysts have suggested the 787’s first delivery could slip to 2012, an additional delay of more than nine months, Boeing’s previous six delays have never shifted the schedule more than six months at a time. A six month slide beyond today’s February 2011 plan would place handover to ANA around August of 2011, more than three years after its original target.

The fire, which happened while on approach to Laredo, Texas, and its root cause, revealed an Achillies heel in the 787’s electrical system that must be resolved before the Dreamliner can enter service.

Boeing says its first 787 delivery will slide due to software and minor hardware changes to the electrical system, an assessment the company says will be completed within “the next few weeks.”

The airframer needs to implement changes to the software that manages and protect power distribution on the aircraft, as well as a minor hardware change to the P100 distribution panel to prevent foreign object debris (FOD) ingestion.

“We have successfully simulated key aspects of the on-board event in our laboratory and are moving forward with developing design fixes,” says 787 vice president and general manager Scott Fancher

Boeing says foreign debris “most likely” caused the November 9 fire aboard ZA002 that has halted 787 certification operations.

Lowest November temperature since 1995, negative NAO drives frigid polar air over Sweden

November 25, 2010

Last night the temperature in Northern Sweden dropped to -37 Celsius, the coldest temperature recorded for a November day since 1995.

Bitter winter on the way: expert

24th November 2010 - Photo Fredrik Sandberg / Scanpix

 

“This year’s winter can be just as cold and snowy as last year. Now, as then, there is a weather phenomenon that causes cold air from the polar regions to plummet over us”,

writes the Svenska Dagbladet

The North Atlantic Oscillation is in a negative phase (NAO-).Before last year’s winter this had not occurred in years. The default mode instead was of the NAO  in a positive phase with the warm southwest winds, which resulted in mild, almost snow-free winters in northern Europe.

“Now it looks like last winter. If it continues, it means bitter cold. But you never know when the weather turns, “said meteorologist and researcher Per Kållberg at SMHI to Sydsvenskan. Meteorologists around the world are now discussing if the negative phase will continue. It started in December 2009 and has persisted since then, which is the longest period in over 40 years. Nikkaluokta in northern Lapland had  minus 36.6 degrees yesterday – the season’s lowest temperature so far, according to SMHI. It is also the lowest November temperature in Sweden since 1995.

The bitterly cold and long winter last year followed by the early start to this winter is, of course,  only weather – not climate.

But I expect in Cancun next week all the “believers” will be chanting their mantra of 2010 being a very warm year. Common sense will be notably absent of course.


Haiti cholera death toll revised up to 2,000, elections this weekend

November 25, 2010

The UN has has released revised information about the cholera outbreak in Haiti. What they are reporting now is what others were reporting already last week:

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=36853&Cr=haiti&Cr1=

A baby and other patients suffering from acute diarrhoea lie on the floor of St. Nicholas Hospital in Haiti: photo UN

The number of reported cases of cholera in Haiti is now approaching 50,000, but health experts have cautioned that the figure could be higher because data on the epidemic has not been received from some rural communities, a United Nations relief official said today. Nigel Fisher, the UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Haiti, said that epidemiologists in the Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO) – the regional arm of the World Health Organization (WHO) – estimate that the number of cases could be as high as 70,000.

The experts have said that the disease might have claimed as many as 2,000 people, with some fatalities in remote areas going unreported. Speaking via a video link from the capital, Port-au-Prince, Mr. Fisher told a news conference in New York that PAHO epidemiologists have also revised their projections of the spread of the disease and now anticipate that cases could rise to 200,000 over the next three months. The experts had earlier estimated that the number of cases could rise to that figure in six months.

“This epidemic is moving faster,” Mr. Fisher said.

Meanwhile, general elections will proceed on Sunday as planned, despite the cholera outbreak and the recent streets protests in the country, Edmond Mulet, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and head of the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH), told the same press briefing.

Operational Biosurveillance had reported similar figures last week and now says:

  • In some areas of Haiti, we have confirmation that in-patient statistics are under-reported by as much as 400%. In many areas of Haiti, we are documenting outbreaks that are not being accounted for in the official statistics.  We therefore estimate the upper bound of estimated total (subclinical and clinically apparent) case counts to be nearly 375,000.
  • It is likely the elections will facilitate the spread of the epidemic due to population mixing.